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The Biggest Trade In Nationals History Looks Better Every Day

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The 2022 Nationals found themselves at a crossroads. Washington had sold at the prior year's trade deadline, shipping Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, sending Kyle Schwarber to the Red Sox, dealing Daniel Hudson to the Padres and trading Jon Lester to the Cardinals. The organization's steadfast hope had been that even while rebuilding, Juan Soto would be at the heart of those efforts to build back up. Longtime general manager Mike Rizzo acknowledged as much in June, plainly stating on the record that he had no intention of trading Soto.

The Nats offered Soto an extension reportedly worth $440MM in guaranteed money. It would've been the largest deal in MLB history at the time. Only after Soto turned that offer down -- drawing plenty of criticism for doing so -- did Washington begin to seriously explore the possibility of trading him. Moving the game's best young hitter when he had two and a half seasons of club control remaining was no small undertaking. It'd require a seismic haul of young talent -- the type of prospect package that several interested parties simply didn't have the inventory to assemble. Most other clubs simply couldn't stomach the asking price.

A limited market of suitors for Soto emerged. To no one's surprise, the hyper-aggressive Padres entered the bidding and made a strong push. San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller throws his hat in the ring when nearly any star-caliber player is available. From the moment Soto hit the market, the Padres -- then armed with one of baseball's best farm systems -- were among the most logical landing spots.

San Diego indeed wound up reeling in their big fish, and it took the type of trade haul we might not see again for years to come. Soto and Josh Bell went from the Nats to the Padres in exchange for shortstop CJ Abrams, left-hander MacKenzie Gore, outfielder James Wood, outfielder Robert Hassell III and right-hander Jarlin Susana. The Padres also sent first baseman Luke Voit to the Nats as something of a financial counterweight, and in a separate deal they shipped Eric Hosmer -- who'd invoked his no-trade rights to block his inclusion in the Soto trade -- to the Red Sox.

It was a jaw-dropping haul. Abrams, Gore and Hassell had all been top-10 draft picks within the past five seasons. Abrams was a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport at the time. Gore had struggled through some mechanical issues in the upper minors but was only a few years removed from being one of the consensus top pitching prospects in the game. Wood was a 19-year-old who was just a year removed from being a second-round pick, and his stock was firmly on the rise at the time of the swap as he ripped through A-ball. Hassell entered the 2022 season as a top-40 prospect in the game. Susana was only 18 at the time of the trade and was in his first season of pro ball after signing out of his native Dominican Republic; Baseball America likened his upside to that of a high schooler who might go in the first round of the MLB draft.

While not every blockbuster trade pans out -- Washington hasn't gotten a ton of value from that Scherzer/Turner stunner, for instance -- the Soto trade has produced a bumper crop that seems likely to form the nucleus of the next contending Nationals club.

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Mike Rizzo Discusses Nationals’ Rotation Plans, Offseason Moves

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The Nationals made a surprise addition to their already crowded rotation mix yesterday when they signed southpaw Shinnosuke Ogasawara to a two-year deal. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo spoke to reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASN and Spencer Nausbaum of the Washington Post) today about the club’s rotation plans for 2025 and where Ogasawara fits into that picture.

Ogasawara, 27, has posted a 3.28 ERA in 596 innings of work over the past four seasons with Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chunichi Dragons. While that’s a solid performance, the lefty’s lackluster 13.6% strikeout rate last year raised plenty of eyebrows when he was posted by the Dragons last month. That skepticism about his ability to make such a profile with such few strikeouts work in the majors led Ogasawara to sign a modest deal that guarantees him just $3.5MM, well below the going rate for even back-end starters in free agency. Rizzo expressed confidence in Ogasawara as a starting-caliber option despite those concerns, but stopped short of fully guaranteeing him a rotation spot or even an active roster spot to open the season in his discussion of the club’s rotation plans.

“We signed [Ogasawara] to be a starting pitcher for us in the big leagues,” Rizzo told reporters, including Zuckerman. “Of course, he’ll have to earn that spot in the rotation. I think there’s going to be great competition for the five spots in the rotation by some good, young, talented players. If he’s not ready for the big leagues, then we could always option him to Triple-A and bring him up sometime during the season. But we anticipate him battling out for a rotation spot, and I think it’s going to be a fun competition to watch.”

That most tracks with Andrew Golden of the Washington Post’s reporting on the state of the club’s rotation. Golden characterizes right-hander Michael Soroka, left-hander MacKenzie Gore, and right-hander Jake Irvin as the three players locked into Opening Day rotation spots if healthy. That leaves two spots in the rotation for Ogasawara, veteran right-hander Trevor Williams, and young southpaws Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz to compete for, though it’s worth noting that Williams himself indicated earlier this month that he’ll be part of the club’s Opening Day rotation. That would leave just one spot for Ogasawara, Parker, and Herz to compete for. Ogasawara seems likely to be the favorite for that role headed into Spring Training, though all three have options remaining and Golden suggested that he or even Williams could be pushed to a bullpen role if Parker and/or Herz look particularly good coming out of camp.

The club’s approach of adding plenty of depth to the rotation to ease their reliance on up-and-coming youngsters without blocking them meshes will with the club’s overall philosophy for this winter. As Nausbaum notes, Rizzo told reporters that given “where [the club is] at right now,” the club was cautious about signing free agents with a qualifying offer attached due to the associated loss of draft capital and international bonus pool money. The club’s reluctance to target qualified free agents led the club to bring in a number of short-term reinforcements this winter.

That includes not only their trio of rotation additions but also Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Bell, Amed Rosario, and Jorge Lopez. All of those veterans come with either one or two seasons of control, preventing them from blocking the young players and prospects that the Nationals have been building around since they first began what has become a lengthy rebuild back in 2021. The club’s fortunes appear to be on the upswing headed into 2025 with that group of intriguing youngsters in the rotation and an outfield that currently projects to feature full seasons from James Wood and Dylan Crews in the corners. Cade Cavalli, Robert Hassell III, and Brady House are among the other noteworthy prospects in the club’s pipeline who have yet to establish themselves in the majors but could arrive at some point this season.

That reluctance to block top prospects and young players seems to have played a significant role in how the club’s offseason has played out to this point. Early in the winter, the Nationals were among the teams most frequently connected to Christian Walker before he ultimately signed with the Astros. Walker, of course, received a Qualifying Offer from the Diamondbacks that may have limited the Nationals’ interest in him and led to them pivoting towards the additions of Lowe and Bell. It’s also possible that the club’s desire to avoid blocking young players contributing to them not signing second baseman Gleyber Torres. Torres made clear shortly after he signed with the Tigers that the Nats were among the teams pursuing him but that they had wanted him to move to third base in order to accommodate 24-year-old Luis Garcia Jr. after he enjoyed something of a breakout season in 2024. When Torres landed elsewhere, the Nationals opted to sign Rosario, who has moved around to a number of positions all throughout his career and should have no trouble playing out of position if needed.

Trevor Williams To Open Season In Nationals’ Rotation

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The Nationals brought Trevor Williams back on a two-year, $14MM free agent deal this week. The veteran righty spoke with the Washington beat (including Spencer Nusbaum of the Washington Post and Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com) this afternoon and indicated he’ll be part of Dave Martinez’s rotation.

While that’s not surprising in isolation, it potentially sets up a camp battle if Washington sticks with a five-man staff. They signed righty Michael Soroka to a $9MM deal to work as a starter. The Nats are also bringing back four pitchers who started at least 19 games last season: Jake Irvin, MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz.

All four of those returning arms had productive campaigns. Gore is a former top prospect who posted a 3.90 earned run average while striking out nearly a quarter of opponents across 32 starts. He’ll certainly be in the rotation. Irvin led the team with 187 2/3 innings and turned in a 4.41 ERA with decent underlying metrics. The 27-year-old righty did seem to wear down in the second half, as he allowed a near-6.00 ERA after taking a 3.49 mark into the All-Star Break. He still seems likely to be a starting pitcher himself.

If Washington wanted to begin the year with a five-man staff, that could leave Parker and Herz battling for a job if everyone comes through Spring Training healthy. Herz showed more swing-and-miss ability, fanning nearly 28% of opponents with a 12.9% swinging strike rate in 19 starts as a rookie. The southpaw’s 9.4% walk rate was the highest of any of Washington’s starters, though. Herz has had far more worrisome walk numbers in the minors, including a massive 19% clip over 10 Triple-A starts last year.

Parker, 25, profiles as a steadier back-end arm. He made 29 starts during his debut campaign and turned in a 4.29 ERA through 151 innings. He struck out 20.6% of opponents against a tidy 6.7% walk percentage. Parker doesn’t throw quite as hard as Herz does and doesn’t miss bats at the same rate, but he looks the part of a league average starter.

Washington used a six-man rotation when Williams returned from injury late last season. Patrick Corbin, who is now a free agent, was on hand in the role that Soroka would play this year. That’d be the simplest solution if all six starters are available on Opening Day. Each of Gore, Irvin, Parker and Herz have minor league options, though, so the Nats could send anyone from that group to Triple-A if they wanted to move to a five-man staff.

Prospect Cade Cavalli will be in the mix after missing nearly two full seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. Nusbaum writes that Cavalli, who made his big league debut with one start in 2022, is likely to open the year in the minors. That’s designed to allow the team to monitor his workload since he has only thrown 8 1/3 minor league innings over the last two years. Cavalli is expected to factor into the MLB staff at some point in the season.

Nationals’ Rizzo On Offseason Spending, Rotation, CJ Abrams

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Nationals president of baseball operations and general manager Mike Rizzo said recently that his club will be on the lookout for middle-of-the-order bats this offseason, in an effort to supplement a growing young core. The Nats would reportedly “love” a reunion with Juan Soto — unsurprisingly so; who wouldn’t at least be interested? — and the free agent market will have big-name bats ranging from corner infielders Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman and Christian Walker, to shortstop Willy Adames, to slugging corner outfielders like Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez.

Multi-year free agent deals of any real magnitude haven’t been a focus for the Nationals throughout the past three years of their rebuild, but Rizzo suggested in his weekly appearance on 106.7 The Fan’s “Sports Junkies” show that a return to the deeper waters of free agency could be possible this winter (Audacy link to the entire 14-minute interview). Asked if ownership “will be open to going out and giving bigger money to guys who are established” (as opposed to the recent run of one-year deals and reclamation-project hitters), Rizzo replied:

“I think if the opportunity arises and the right fit arises, I don’t see any reason they wouldn’t. They’ve done it in the past when there’s players out there that are available that fit what we’re looking for.”

The Lerner family, which owns the Nats, has indeed been willing to spend at top-of-the-market levels in offseasons past. Washington has twice doled out more than $200MM on single free-agent deals: Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210MM contract and Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $245MM pact. The latter of those two signings, of course, did not pan out. The former stands as one of the best and most successful major free agent signings in history. The Lerners have also given the green light to another pair of nine-figure signings in Patrick Corbin (six years, $140MM) and, way back in 2010, Jayson Werth (seven years, $126MM — a massive contract at the time).

Certainly, the Nationals haven’t spent at the level that will be required to sign Soto this offseason, but Soto figures to command a historic contract. No team has really gone to that length — arguably not even the Dodgers, given the unique and deferral-laden structure of the 10-year contract they gave to Shohei Ohtani last winter. (MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and I discussed the possibility of a Nationals pursuit of Soto on this morning’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast, which was recorded prior to Rizzo’s comments.)

With regard to the rest of the free agent class, none of Bregman, Alonso, Santander, Hernandez or any of the other big bats in free agency figure to exceed the limits at which the Nationals have spent in the past. That doesn’t ensure that the Nationals will pony up for a top-of-the-market bat, but there’s precedent for them spending at or even in excess of most of those levels. Add in the fact that the only guaranteed contracts on the Nationals’ books beyond the current season are the remaining two seasons of that Strasburg deal and Keibert Ruiz’s eight-year, $50MM extension (spanning the 2023-30 seasons), and there’s room for the Nats to engage with any free agent they deem a fit — Soto included.

Rizzo noted that expenditures to bolster the lineup needn’t only come on the free-agent side of things. He listed both the trade level and the “development level” of player acquisition as well, noting that between the three he expects an “active, interesting winter” for his club. Rizzo stopped short of declaring the team’s rebuild entirely over and proclaiming the 2025 campaign a clear win-now season, but the general tone of his comments Wednesday painted a team on the rise with increased expectations of contending sooner than later.

Much of that has to do with the strides Washington has seen from its collection of in-house starting pitchers, for whom Rizzo effused praise. Right-hander Jake Irvin and lefties MacKenzie Gore and Mitchell Parker will all finish with 30-plus starts and more than 150 innings. Southpaw DJ Herz, called up later in the season, will close out the year with 19 big league starts, in all likelihood.

All four pitchers currently have an ERA between 4.04 and 4.30. Broadly speaking, their earned run averages have ticked up late in the season as their workloads have reached previously uncharted waters. Each is already at least 27 innings past his previous single-season career-high mark. In Irvin’s case, his 183 1/3 innings are 40 more than his previous highwater mark. Some fatigue and growing pains are to be expected. Still, Rizzo made clear that the simultaneous development of that quartet is among the organization’s biggest successes this season and serves as “a great measuring stick going forward.”

Presumably, the Nats hope that top pitching prospect Cade Cavalli, who missed the 2023 season and much of 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, can join that group in 2025. It’s a solid-looking collection of arms, although given the general volatility and attrition rate of pitchers, it’s easy to envision Rizzo and his staff considering at least one veteran addition this winter to supplement the group and safeguard against injuries and/or regression. Rizzo didn’t specifically call out rotation support as an area of need, but virtually any team would be reluctant to head into a season with five starters under the age of 28 and with three or fewer years of big league service atop the depth chart.

Rizzo was also naturally asked about the recent demotion of shortstop CJ Abrams, whom the Nationals optioned over the weekend. At the time of the move, the team only indicated that it was for an off-the-field issue. Subsequent reports have suggested that Abrams’ demotion was a disciplinary measure after he stayed out all night at a casino the night before a day game against the Cubs. Rizzo unsurprisingly declined to delve into specifics but confirmed it was an off-field issue and voiced support for Abrams moving forward:

“It was not performance-based. We felt it was in the best interest of the player and the organization to do so. It’s an internal issue that we’re going to keep internal. … It’s not the end of the world for CJ. It’s not the end of the world for the Nationals. It’s something that happens over the course of time, especially with young players. We love CJ. We care for CJ. We’re in constant communication with he and his agent, and we still have a great relationship.”

“…We have a standard here. We’ve had it for a lot of years. When players don’t reach those standards, we have to do what’s in the best interest of the organization. … And when players fail to reach those standards, we have to do something to get them back into the mode of Nationals, and teammate, big leagues. We felt that it was warranted in this case. Like I said, not the end of the world. Not the end of CJ Abrams. Not the end of the Nats.”

Abrams, who’ll turn 24 in a couple weeks, came to the Nationals alongside Gore, James Wood, Robert Hassell III and Jarlin Susana in the trade sending Soto to the Padres. The former top prospect looked to be in the midst of a full-fledged breakout for the first half of the season, slashing .282/.353/.506 through early July. He’s since fallen into a protracted slump, hitting just .191/.254/.321 over his past 236 turns at the plate. (He’d picked up the pace again of late, going 11-for-28 with a pair of homers and three doubles in his past eight games.)

The demotion to the minors won’t cost Abrams in terms of big league service, arbitration trajectory or free agent timeline. He’d already accrued a full year of service in 2024 at the time he was sent down. He’ll finish the year with 2.130 years of service, making him a very likely Super Two player who’ll be eligible for arbitration four times rather than the standard three. The first of those four — assuming he indeed qualifies as a Super Two player — will come this offseason. He’s under club control through the 2028 season.

Nationals Place MacKenzie Gore On 15-Day IL

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The Nationals placed left-hander MacKenzie Gore on the 15-day injured list earlier today with finger blisters. Fellow lefty Joe La Sorsa was recalled in the corresponding move. As relayed by MLB.com, manager Dave Martinez told reporters this afternoon that Gore is likely done for the season as a result of the injury, though he added that he wasn’t going to rule anything out “right now.”

2023 was Gore’s first full season with the Nationals after coming over from the Padres as a part of the deal that sent Juan Soto to San Diego. Overall, Gore looked like a solid, rotation-caliber arm in 27 starts this season, though his 4.42 ERA clocked in right around league average (96 ERA+) and his peripherals (4.90 FIP, 5.08 xERA) hardly looked like those one would expect from an arm who was once considered the top pitching prospect in all of baseball.

That being said, Gore did post a solid 25.9% strikeout rate along with a perfectly manageable walk rate of 9.8% this year. Most of Gore’s struggles this season stemmed from problems with the long ball; a whopping 18.4% of Gore’s fly balls left the yard for home runs this season, double the 9.2% rate he experienced in 2022 as a member of the Padres.

Digging a little deeper into Gore’s numbers, it seems the 24-year-old hurler may have worn down during his first wire-to-wire big league season as the year went on. Gore made sixteen starts in the first three months of the season, and looked like a quality mid-rotation arm during that time. Despite hitters managing an elevated .341 BABIP against him, Gore posted a 3.89 ERA and 4.07 FIP in 85 2/3 innings of work, with a fantastic 28.5% strikeout rate.

In his final eleven starts of the season from the start of July onward, Gore looked like a completely different pitcher. Despite his BABIP misfortunes from earlier in the season turning around in his favor (.261), he posted a 5.33 ERA and 6.30 FIP across his final 50 2/3 innings of work this year while striking out just 21.7% of batters faced. His home run rate also ballooned, as he allowed more dingers (14) in those final 50-plus innings than he did in the entire first half (13).

Given this downturn in production as the season wore on, it’s hardly surprising that the Nationals would consider pulling the plug on Gore’s season with three weeks left to go. At the same time, it could provide some reason for optimism for Nationals fans as they look to the future, as Gore is sure to be a member of the 2024 rotation alongside the likes of Josiah Gray and Jake Irvin. If Gore’s late-season struggles were a product of working beyond what Martinez indicated the club expected his innings limit to be coming into the year, it’s possible his 2024 season could wind up looking more like his impressive first-half numbers.

As for La Sorsa, the 25-year-old lefty made his MLB debut for the Rays earlier this season. In 23 2/3 innings of work at the big league level this season between the Tampa and Washington bullpens, the lefty sports a 6.08 ERA and 4.74 FIP. Despite those ugly numbers, he’ll nonetheless provide the Nats with an additional lefty out of the bullpen to pair with Jose Ferrer.

Quick Hits: Orioles, Nationals, Steer

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Orioles general manager Mike Elias told Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on Sunday that he expects top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez to crack the team’s Opening Day rotation out of camp this spring and that he also believes top outfield prospect Colton Cowser will be ready to make his MLB debut at some point in 2023.

Rodriguez was striding confidently toward Baltimore last summer before he suffered Grade 2 right lat strain while working in a game at Triple-A Norfolk in early June. He didn’t return to action in the minors until September, and by the time he got properly stretched out again, the O’s chances of a late-season push to the playoffs had fully cratered. The 23-year-old ultimately finished with a 2.62 ERA, 109 strikeouts and 28 walks in 75 2/3 innings (17 starts) between High-A Aberdeen, Double-A Bowie and Norfolk. He’s recorded a career 2.47 ERA with 419 strikeouts in 292 total professional frames since the Orioles selected him 11th overall in the 2018 MLB Draft, but the lineups and environments of the AL East obviously present a far greater test than what he’s seen on the farm.

Cowser, the No. 5 overall pick from the 2021 MLB Draft, also reached the Triple-A level in 2022 and produced an overall .278/.406/.469 batting line with 19 home runs and 18 stolen bases in his 138 minor league games. The 22-year-old has experience at all three outfield spots and boasts an .895 OPS so far as a pro. If there’s an injury to Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins or Anthony Santander, the ETA on Cowser could further shrink.

A brighter future is rapidly coming into focus at Camden Yards.

  • Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo spoke glowingly of the organization’s young players and rising prospects at the club’s Hot Stove event for full-season-ticket holders this weekend, as relayed by Stephen Mears of TalkNats.com. CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, Keibert Ruiz, Cade Cavalli, MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray all earned a specific mention. “This is the most lush and successful prospect list that we’ve ever had,” Rizzo said. “It’s the most talented players we’ve ever had in the farm system at one time.” The big buzz is that Cavalli could be positioned to join Gore and Gray in Washington’s season-opening starting rotation with Stephen Strasburg’s health still a lingering uncertainty.
  • Spencer Steer acknowledged at a Reds Caravan event over the weekend that he has his sights set on the everyday third base job in Cincinnati this season. “I’m going to do everything I can to win that spot,” he told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. “I think it’s doable and attainable. That will be my focus: getting into that lineup and staying in that lineup.” Acquired from the Twins at the trade deadline last August in the return package for Tyler Mahle, the 25-year-old Steer went on to bat .211/.306/.326 across his first 28 big league games. He was slashing .274/.364/.515 in the minors prior to his promotion to the Reds’ roster.

NL Notes: Cubs, Nationals, Marlins

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Chicago Cubs veteran starter Wade Miley left yesterday’s game with left oblique tightness after fielding a bunt, according to MLB.com. Miley, who will be 36 next season, has had a frustrating, injury-filled season. The southpaw started the season on the 10-day injured list with left elbow inflammation and dealt with an additional left shoulder strain before being activated in early May. He would make three starts in May before being faced with injuries again, eventually being placed on the 60-day injured list with a left shoulder strain in June.

The Cubs’ acquisition of Miley via waivers from the Cincinnati Reds in the offseason was rather noteworthy, as the lefty came with a $10MM salary for the 2022 season and the Cubs were not considered contenders entering the 2022 season. Miley was coming off a rather productive four-year stretch, posting a 3.53 ERA in 425 1/3 innings and making 81 starts, albeit with a low 18.0% strikeout rate and an average 8.1% walk rate. However, Miley ranked highly in his ability to miss bats; he was in the 95th percentile for Average Exit Velocity, 83rd percentile for HardHit%, 75th percentile for Barrel %, and 77th percentile for Chase Rate in the 2021 season. With the Cubs out of contention for the 2022 playoffs and Miley a free agent at the end of the season, the Cubs may decide to end his season early and give starts to players fighting to make the starting rotation in the spring.

Elsewhere in the National League:

  • The Cubs have been searching for Anthony Rizzo’s heir, and they might have found it, reports Patrick Mooney of the Athletic. First baseman Matt Mervis has had a remarkable 2022 season. Beginning in High-A South Bend, the 24-year-old mashed pitchers to the tune of .350/.389/.650 with a 1.039 OPS in 100 at-bats before being promoted to Double-A Tennessee. Mervis picked up right where he left off, slashing .300/.370/.596/.966 with 14 home runs in 203 at-bats, earning a promotion to Triple-A Iowa and continuing to punish pitchers, posting a .297/.387/.595 slash line for a .982 OPS with another 14 home runs in 195 at-bats. On the heels of this dominant showing throughout the Minors, Cubs manager David Ross has been rather coy on the Cubs’ plans for Mervis, stating that “there’s no doubt that he’ll have a great opportunity in front of him moving forward”  and that Mervis is “definitely on the radar.”
  • As Washington Nationals’ rookie pitcher Josiah Gray wraps up his 2022 season, the Nationals are keeping a close eye on his innings count and have hinted at the possibility of shutting him down early, as reported by MLB.com. Coming to the Nationals from the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of the Trea Turner and Max Scherzer trade in 2021, Gray has shown flashes of brilliance and growing pains. Cumulatively, Gray has pitched to 5.17 ERA (27 starts) in 142 2/3 innings with an above-average 24.2% strikeout rate and a high 10.4% walk rate. However, these numbers do not explain the whole story, with Gray posting a 1.13 ERA in June (24 innings) and only allowing 13 hits and 3 earned runs. However, in July, Gray pitched to a 6.75 ERA (26 2/3 innings), giving up 30 hits and 20 earned runs. With the Nationals at the bottom of the NL East, they may turn their focus to the 2023 season and give Gray an extended offseason in preparation for his age-25 season.
  • In other Nationals news, southpaw MacKenzie Gore, who was acquired in the Juan Soto and Josh Bell blockbuster at the trade deadline, is working back from his left elbow inflammation, according to MLB.com. Gore has been on the injured list since July 26 and is currently continuing his rehabilitation in Triple-A Rochester. The Nationals are hoping that the 23-year-old will make at least one big league start with the team before the end of the season, and plan to have him throw 75-plus pitches in his next rehab start.
  • The Miami Marlins’ rebuild has yet to bear any fruit, and the team may be adjusting its roster for the 2023 season. Having traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, and Marcell Ozuna in the span of a few years, fans were aware that the team was entering a rebuild. However, the rebuild has yet to show any moderate signs of success. After making the postseason in 2020, the Marlins seem destined to finish the season below .500 for the twelfth time in the last thirteen seasons. An article by Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins view former first-rounder JJ Bleday as a “serviceable starter or platoon outfielder” and that “he does not project as a full-time center fielder.” Since a late July callup, Bleday has posted a measly .169/.285/.305/.590 slash line in his first MLB season with an inflated 28.5% strikeout percentage but with a high 13% walk rate. In a similar thought, the Marlins are “no longer counting on ” Lewin Díaz as their everyday first baseman because of his poor offensive performance. In his third season of Major League action, Díaz has posted a .163/.223/.281/.504 slash line in 148 plate appearances. Importantly, Díaz has seen an increase in his strikeout percentage and is fanning at a 30.4% clip and only walking at 6.8%.

Injury Notes: Gore, Bryant, Flaherty, Twins

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Newly acquired Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore will resume throwing this Friday, manager Dave Martinez told reporters this weekend (Twitter link via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). Gore, the former No. 3 overall draft pick and top pitching prospect in the sport, has been sidelined since July 25 due to elbow soreness. A previous MRI did not reveal structural damage, however, and the Nats were clearly comfortable with Gore’s medical records upon reviewing them in advance of the Juan Soto blockbuster that sent him from San Diego to Washington. Presumably, he’ll require a minor league rehab stint before jumping into the big league mix for the Nationals, but Friday’s throwing session will be an important first step to monitor as he begins that progression. Assuming good health, Gore looks poised to play a pivotal long-term role in the Nationals’ rotation, joining Josiah Gray (acquired in last summer’s Max Scherzer/Trea Turner deal) as a building block acquired at the deadline.

Gore absolutely overpowered opponents through early June, pitching to a 1.50 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate across the first 48 innings of his career. He’s been tagged for 27 runs in 22 innings since that time, however, working with diminished velocity along the way. Gore only pitched 50 1/3 innings last year (plus some work at the team’s Spring Training complex while going through a mechanical reset), so workload was always expected to be something of an issue in 2022. The Nationals have not made clear the extent to which they’ll monitor his innings moving forward.

Some more health situations to monitor around the league…

  • Rockies outfielder Kris Bryant is currently in a walking boot due to a case of plantar fasciitis, and there’s no timetable for his return to the field, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes within a broader look at another disappointing season for the Rockies. Colorado signed Bryant to a seven-year, $182MM contract over the winter but have thus far received just 42 games and 181 plate appearances from the former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP. Bryant’s power was MIA early in the year while playing through a back injury that required two IL stints, but he did bat .330/.398/.567 with 13 extra-base hits (five homers, eight doubles) in 108 plate appearances between his most recent trips to the injured list.
  • Cardinals righty Jack Flaherty believes issues with his mechanics led to his latest trip to the injured list, per MLB.com. The starter spent most of the season on the injured list due shoulder problems, returning to make three starts in June before returning to the 60-day IL. That means he’s ineligible to return until late August, though he has started throwing this week, trying to iron out those mechanical issues and potentially starting a rehab assignment soon. “You start doing things incorrectly for a while and then you repeat it over and over again — eventually something is going to flare up,” Flaherty says. “The goal was to clean things up and sharpen things up so that that doesn’t happen. That’s what we’ve been working on, so hopefully things stay that way.” If he can return before the season is out, he could provide a boost to the rotation down the stretch, though the Cards added Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery at the deadline to proactively address the situation.
  • The Twins expect righties Josh Winder and Bailey Ober to begin throwing bullpen sessions Tuesday, tweets Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. Winder has been widely regarded as a top-100 prospect this year and has given Minnesota 45 1/3 frames of 3.77 ERA ball in his big league debut, but shoulder troubles have slowed him of late (as has been the case in past seasons as well). Ober has made 27 starts for the Twins dating back to 2021, pitching to a 4.14 ERA along the way and serving as a generally solid back-of-the-rotation arm. He’s been out since June 1 due to a groin strain that proved more severe than originally believed. The Twins remain hopeful that each of Winder, Ober, outfielder Trevor Larnach and right-hander Kenta Maeda (recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery) will be able to return in September, tweets Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North tweets that right-hander Randy Dobnak will head out on a minor league rehab assignment Thursday, giving the Twins some additional depth on the horizon.

Padres Acquire Juan Soto, Josh Bell; C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Luke Voit Among Six Players Back To Nationals

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The Padres pulled off the biggest deadline deal in years, announcing the acquisition of both Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the Nationals. San Diego sent back a haul of young talent to complete the blockbuster. Rookie shortstop C.J. Abrams and left-hander MacKenzie Gore are headed to Washington, as are a trio of highly-regarded prospects: outfielders Robert Hassell III and James Wood, and pitcher Jarlin Susana. To round out the deal, the Nats are picking up big league first baseman Luke Voit.

It’s a stunning blockbuster, one of the most seismic trades in major league history. There’s almost no precedent for a player of Soto’s caliber being dealt, particularly not with multiple seasons of remaining club control. The lefty-hitting outfielder is among the game’s top handful of players, a superstar performer who has amazingly yet to turn 24 years old. Soto debuted in the big leagues as a 19-year-old in 2018, having played just eight games above A-ball at the time. Even holding his head above water would’ve been impressive in that context, but Soto immediately stepped into the majors as of its best hitters.

Soto hit .292/.406/.517 in 116 games as a rookie. He’s followed that up with successively elite offensive seasons, looking well on his way to being an all-time great hitter. Between 2019-21, Soto hit .304/.440/.561. He averaged more than 25 home runs per year (even with the 2020 schedule being dramatically shortened) and drew plenty more walks than strikeouts. Soto finished in the top ten in NL MVP balloting each season, including a runner-up finish last year. He was an integral part of the Nationals’ World Series winner in 2019, following up a .282/.401/.548 regular season performance with a .277/.373/.554 showing during that year’s postseason. Along the way, Soto claimed a pair of Silver Slugger Awards and was selected to the All-Star Game in 2021.

The 2022 campaign hasn’t been Soto’s best, but a “down” season by his standards would be a career year for most players. Through 436 plate appearances, he’s hitting .246/.408/.485. He’s drawn walks in an MLB-best 20.9% of his trips to the dish while striking out just 14.2% of the time. He’s tied for 17th in the majors with 21 longballs, and he’s third among hitters with 200+ plate appearances in on-base percentage (.408). That’s in spite of a .243 batting average on balls in play that’s easily the lowest mark of his career, nowhere close to .330 figure he carried into the season. The lesser ball in play results do reflect a slight downturn in his batted ball quality, but Soto’s batted ball metrics and exit velocities are better than his actual batting average and slugging output might suggest.

It wasn’t long ago that trading a hitter of this caliber would’ve seemed unfathomable. The Nationals are less than three years removed from their aforementioned championship. Even after a last place finish in 2020, Washington was in win-now mode heading into 2021. A swoon just before last summer’s trade deadline dropped them near the bottom of the National League and kicked off a major reboot that saw stars like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber traded. All those players were within their final season and a half of remaining control, however, while Soto was still more than three years from free agency at the time. There was seemingly never any consideration on the Nats part to dealing him either last summer or over the offseason.

That remained the case just two months ago, when Washington general manager Mike Rizzo flatly declared the club was “not trading” Soto. That was before their latest (and ultimately final) attempt to sign him to a long-term deal. After Soto rejected a 13-year, $350MM extension offer last offseason, the Nationals reengaged with his representatives this summer. Soto again turned down the Nationals overtures — this time a 15-year, $440MM proposal — and the club pivoted to the trade market.

One could certainly argue whether that was the right course of action for the franchise to take. Even if the organization were convinced that signing Soto to an extension was untenable, they didn’t have to move him this summer. Soto is arbitration-eligible through 2024, so Washington could’ve held onto him until next winter or merely proceeded year-by-year through the arb process and tried to put a contending roster back around him. Rizzo and his staff decided against that course of action. The Nationals have a barren farm system and have curtailed payroll in recent seasons while the Lerner family explores a sale of the franchise. Turning around a team with an NL-worst 35-69 record within the next two years would’ve been an immense challenge even with Soto on the roster, and the Nats are now fully embracing a rebuild that’ll likely take multiple seasons.

That decision will be a tough pill to swallow for at least some segment of the fanbase. Washington has now seen the departures of Scherzer, Turner, Anthony Rendon and Soto within the past few years — dramatically overhauling the franchise’s best clubs since it moved to Washington. They’re surely hopeful that players like Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz and the package of young players they’re receiving in the Soto deal will comprise a core of another contender down the road, but there’s no denying how quickly the Nationals fell from the top after winning the title three seasons back.

On the other side of the equation, the Padres are landing one of the sport’s preeminent superstars to bolster an already star-studded roster. The Friars have gone in the opposite direction of the Nationals over the past few years, coming out of their rebuild in 2020 with an excellent young core after years of building the farm system. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his group have shown a willingness to swing for marquee talent time and again. They’ve signed Manny Machado to a huge free agent contract and swung blockbuster trades for players like Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger. For as aggressive as Preller’s been over his eight years running baseball ops, he’s never had a two-day stretch like this. The Friars sent closer Taylor Rogers, righty Dinelson Lamet and two prospects to land star reliever Josh Hader from the Brewers yesterday. He’s now followed up with the kind of blockbuster that’ll define his front office tenure.

The Padres enter play Tuesday with a 58-46 record. They’re in possession of the National League’s second Wild Card spot and a likely playoff team, but even adding Soto and Hader is unlikely to give them much of a chance at erasing a 12-game deficit to the Dodgers in the NL West. The acquisition is both about solidifying their hold on a playoff spot for this season and adding another impact bat alongside Fernando Tatis Jr. and Machado for the next few seasons. The Padres could theoretically try to reengage Soto’s reps at the Boras Corporation about a possible long-term pact, but the more likely scenario would seem to be that he’ll spend the remainder of his arbitration seasons in San Diego.

To get the deal done, the Friars reportedly outbid some of their National League competitors. The Cardinals and Dodgers were generally viewed among San Diego’s top rivals in the bidding for Soto, and there’s surely an added bonus in keeping him away from teams whom San Diego could plausibly meet in the postseason for the next few years. Preller and his staff probably have no small amount of satisfaction in topping the Dodgers’ offers after Los Angeles stepped in to land Scherzer from Washington last summer — not long after reports emerged that San Diego was closing in on a Scherzer agreement with the Nats.

While Soto is obviously the headlining piece of the deal, Bell is far more than an ancillary throw-in. He’s one of the top bats to change hands this summer himself, a player who ranked #3 on MLBTR’s list of the top deadline trade candidates. Bell is one of the more well-rounded hitters in the sport. He’s a switch-hitting power bat who topped out with 37 home runs with the Pirates back in 2019. While that was probably inflated somewhat by the livelier baseball used during that season, Bell has continued to hit for above-average power in the years since then. After a down year in the shortened 2020 campaign, Bell rebounded to connect on 27 longballs during his first season in Washington. He’s hit another 14 homers and 24 doubles through 437 plate appearances this season.

Unlike most power hitters of his ilk, Bell also brings strong bat-to-ball skills to the table. He’s striking out in only 14% of his trips this season, his lowest rate since his rookie year and markedly below the league average. Bell has paired that with quality plate discipline manifesting in an 11.2% walk rate and an overall .302/.384/.493 line. Since being traded to Washington heading into the 2021 season, he’s a .278/.363/.483 hitter in a hair above 1000 plate appearances.

Bell is a pure rental, as he’ll be a free agent for the first time after this season. He’s playing the year on a $10MM salary, around $3.57MM of which is yet to be paid out. He’s limited to first base or designated hitter, but most public metrics agree Bell has played his way to roughly average at first after posting well below-average numbers earlier in his career. While he’s unlikely to ever win a Gold Glove Award, Bell should be a perfectly fine first baseman for the final few months.

A midseason trade not only affords Bell the opportunity to depart a last place club for a contender, it should also boost his free agent stock next offseason. The Nationals were likely to make him a qualifying offer, which would’ve required a signing team to forfeit draft picks and/or international signing bonus space after Bell rejected. Players traded midseason the year before free agency are ineligible for a QO, however, so a trade means Bell’s market won’t be hampered by compensation a few months from now.

Taking on what remains of Soto’s $17.1MM salary (approximately $6.1MM) and Bell’s remaining money — coupled with the Hader trade — is sure to push the Friars beyond the luxury tax threshold. Ownership had reportedly been reluctant to exceed that marker for a second straight year, but the opportunity to add this kind of impact talent compelled them to change their thinking. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates the franchise’s post-trade deadline CBT number around $242MM, a fair bit north of the $230MM base threshold. As a payor for a second straight year, they’ll be taxed at a 30% rate on their first $20MM above the threshold, coming out to approximately $3.7MM in extra fees.

With the chance to transform their roster, majority owner Peter Seidler and company signed off on the addition to an already franchise-record payroll. San Diego presumably plans to remain among the league’s highest-payroll clubs in the coming years, as Martinez projects them for $128MM in guaranteed commitments (with a $157MM CBT figure) for next season. That doesn’t include what’s sure to be another massive arbitration raise for Soto — likely into the $25+MM range — although Bell could depart this winter. It’s a territory with which the franchise is evidently now comfortable, and they’ll be rewarded for their aggressiveness with one of the sport’s most entertaining rosters.

In order to add that kind of star power, the Padres had to be prepared to part with a massive package of young talent. The Nationals had reportedly set an asking price of five-plus young major leaguers and/or prospects in any Soto talks, and that’s what they’ll receive. Abrams is presumably the first player of the deal Washington fans will see at Nationals park, as he’s likely to soon join the MLB roster.

The sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft, Abrams almost immediately played his way towards the top of prospect lists in pro ball. A left-handed hitter with plus bat-to-ball skills and elite speed, he performed quite well in the low minors. The Georgia native missed a fair bit of action, with the cancelation of the 2020 minor league season and a left leg injury that ended his 2021 campaign in July. That kept Abrams to just 42 games above A-ball entering this year, but the Friars nevertheless carried him on the big league roster after losing Tatis to a wrist fracture.

The 21-year-old has struggled in his big league experience to date, hitting .232/.285/.320 through his first 46 games. That’s not unexpected for a player with his lack of experience, though, and Abrams remains a very highly-touted young player. Optioned to Triple-A El Paso midway through the year, he responded with a .314/.364/.507 showing through 30 games to earn another MLB call. He’s played sporadically at each of shortstop, second base and in the outfield with a win-now team in San Diego, but he should have a clearer path to everyday playing time at shortstop on the Nationals.

Abrams checked in as the game’s #11 prospect on Baseball America’s recent top 100, with the outlet reaffirming that his bat-to-ball skills and athleticism give him a chance to be a franchise shortstop. Abrams’ relatively narrow frame doesn’t lead to huge power projection, but he’s credited with possible 15-20 homer pop at his peak. There’s some debate whether he’ll stick at shortstop or should eventually move to second base or center field, but he’s certain to play up the middle somewhere and could be a traditional top-of-the-order type.

The Padres decision to option Abrams to Triple-A was quite likely more motivated by his struggles at the MLB level than any kind of service time gaming. It did have the effect, however, of ensuring he won’t reach a full year of service this season. He remains controllable through the end of the 2028 season, and future optional assignments could push that trajectory back even further.

Gore would’ve joined Abrams in soon appearing on the MLB roster, but he’s currently on the injured list due to elbow inflammation. The Padres were targeting a September return for the 23-year-old southpaw, although it’s seemingly possible he doesn’t make it back to the mound this season. That’s largely immaterial for the Nationals, who are obviously looking well into the future anyhow. It doesn’t seem the club has real long-term concerns about Gore’s arm health.

If healthy, Gore is among the more interesting young arms in the sport. The third overall pick in the 2017 draft, he quickly developed into the game’s top pitching prospect after dominating lower level hitters. Then came a rough two-season stretch between 2020-21. Gore reportedly struggled with his mechanics and battled extreme wildness at the alternate training site the former year, then had an up-and-down 2021 season that saw the club send him back to the complex for a stretch to reset in a lower-pressure environment. Gore righted the ship to some extent, returned to an affiliate late in the year, and began this season at Triple-A.

After one appearance, Gore was promoted to make his major league debut. He went on to make 13 starts while the club navigated injuries to Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger, pitching to a 4.27 ERA with a solid 23.1% strikeout rate. Gore’s 11.5% walk percentage remained a bit high, but it wasn’t anywhere near the level of control concerns he’d had in prior seasons. San Diego moved him to the bullpen for three outings in order to keep tabs on his innings, and Gore was hit hard before going on the IL.

Whether the elbow issue played into Gore’s late struggles or not, he’s still a plenty sensible inclusion in the deal for the Nationals. He’s a high-end athlete with a fastball that averages just under 95 MPH and a pair of promising breaking pitches. Gore is likely to eclipse a full year of service in 2022, putting him on track to potentially reach free agency after the 2027 campaign. He still has all three minor league option years remaining, however, and any future optional stints could push back his path to the market.

Alongside the two big leaguers, the Nationals bring in a trio of highly-regarded prospects. Like Abrams, Hassell and Wood are regarded as top five prospects in the Padres farm system and among the top 60 minor league players in the game, according to Baseball America. Susana’s not quite at that level, but BA recently slotted him as the Padres #10 prospect.

Hassell, 21 this month, was the eighth overall pick in the 2020 draft. He’s a lefty-hitting outfielder who brings a generally well-rounded center field profile. The Tennessee native is regarded as a future plus hitter, and while he doesn’t have overwhelming power, he brings strong bat-to-ball skills and plenty of defensive value. Through 346 plate appearances in High-A this season, Hassell owns a .299/.379/.467 line with ten homers, 20 stolen bases, a lofty 11% walk rate and a solid 19.1% strikeout percentage.

Wood, 19, was the Friars second-round pick last season. A toolsy high school outfielder from Florida, he had swing-and-miss concerns as a draft prospect that led to some questions about his ability to consistently tap into his huge power potential. The 6’7″ outfielder has reportedly made major changes to his mechanics since entering pro ball, however, and he’s tearing the cover off the ball in Low-A. Across 236 plate appearances, the lefty-hitting Wood owns a .337/.453/.601 line. He’s popped 10 homers, swiped 15 bases and has a robust 15.7% walk rate against a more than manageable 17.8% strikeout rate. BA suggests he could be a middle-of-the-order bat capable of swatting 30-plus homers annually at his peak.

Susana, 18, just signed in this past international amateur class. A 6’6″ right-hander, he’s already been clocked into the mid-upper 90s with a plus slider. Susana’s youth and distance from the majors — he’s yet to advance past the complex level — make him a high-risk prospect, but BA notes that he’s a similar caliber of prospect as the same-aged high school pitchers who went in the first round of last month’s domestic amateur draft.

Finally, the Nationals round out the return with Voit. A late entrant to the discussions after Eric Hosmer refused to waive his no-trade rights to go to Washington (leading to his subsequent trade to the Red Sox), Voit moves to both replace Bell in the Washington lineup and offset some salary. Acquired from the Yankees over the offseason, Voit has played in 82 games with San Diego. The 2020 home run champ, he hasn’t managed to replicate that kind of production over the last two seasons. He hit a slightly above-average level in the Bronx last year while battling injuries, and it’s been a fairly similar story in San Diego.

Through 344 plate appearances, Voit owns a .225/.317/.416 line with 13 homers. He’s striking out at a personal-worst 32% rate, but he’s hit for decent enough power to post overall offensive production a bit above par. He’ll presumably see the bulk of first base playing time down the stretch in the nation’s capital. Voit is arbitration-eligible through 2024, although he may be a non-tender candidate, since he’d otherwise be due a raise on this year’s $5.45MM salary.

It’s a blockbuster that’ll have reverberations around the game for years. San Diego is anticipating Soto will go down as one of the most impactful trade pickups in MLB history, and he and Bell will immediately feature in the middle of a lineup the club hopes is set to embark on a long-term playoff run. For the Nationals, it’s an emphatic closing of the book on the franchise’s previous stretch of success — one that brings in an influx of new faces Washington hopes can eventually form the core of another contender in the NL East years down the line.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the Padres and Nationals were moving close on a Soto deal. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the sides had agreed on a deal sending Bell and Soto to San Diego, as well as the inclusion of each of Abrams, Hassell, Wood and Susana. Jim Bowden of the Athletic reported Gore’s inclusion, while Nightengale was first to report Voit was being dealt.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Juan Soto Talks Between Padres, Nationals Reportedly Gaining Momentum

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10:33am: There’s growing momentum in talks between the Padres and Nationals, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Jim Bowden of the Athletic. No deal has yet been finalized, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post hears similarly that there’s “optimism” the Padres can pull off a deal.

7:41am: There is a “growing sense” that the Padres are the likeliest landing spot for not only Soto but also Josh Bell, tweets Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. There’s some momentum in those talks, he adds. Similarly, the Post’s Jesse Dougherty tweets that the Nationals are beginning to narrow the field.

San Diego, of course, already has Eric Hosmer installed at first base, but they’ve been trying for more than a year to unload the remainder of that contract. Speculatively speaking, if the Nats truly want to maximize the return on Soto (and perhaps Bell), they could be the ones to absorb the remaining three years and $39MM on Hosmer’s contract themselves. The trio of Hosmer, Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg would be a lot of underwater contracts for one team, of course, but the Nats have little else on the payroll in the immediate future.

7:12am: Major League Baseball’s trade deadline is now under 12 hours away, and the Juan Soto trade possibility that has captivated the entire sport and its fanbase remains unresolved. As of yesterday, the Soto auction was generally believed to be a three-team bidding war, with the Padres, Cardinals and Dodgers all reported to be heavily involved. That doesn’t preclude another team (or teams) from jumping in to make a late push, of course; it’d frankly rate as something of a surprise if that didn’t happen, in fact. Teams will miss out on other targets, priorities will pivot, and stances on “off limits” prospects will soften.

Up until this point, a sticking point for the Cardinals has been their unwillingness to include young outfielder Dylan Carlson and their very best prospects, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. The 23-year-old Carlson is known be of interest to the Nats as an immediate outfield plug-in, and as a former first-round pick and top-10 overall prospect (per Baseball America), that’s not surprising — even if he’s been more of a solid regular than a star to this point in his young career. The switch-hitting Carlson is batting .260/.334/.426 dating back to last season, and he’s cut down his strikeout rate considerably this season.

Carlson can be controlled another four years beyond the current season and is capable of handling all three outfield spots. There’s perhaps a sense that given his youth and pedigree, he has another gear that he’s not yet tapped into. Further clouding the Cardinals possibility, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that Washington may not be as high on lefty Matthew Liberatore as others in the industry; The Athletic’s Jim Bowden wrote something similar a couple weeks back.

Turning to the Padres, the health of one of their own top young arms, southpaw MacKenzie Gore, is a potential complication. Gore has been shut down with with an elbow strain. He’s expected to avoid surgery, but the specter of an arm injury for a potential key pitcher in the deal has surely altered the Nats’ valuation. The Padres, meanwhile, are now over the luxury-tax threshold after their stunning addition of Josh Hader yesterday. They’ve reportedly been loath to cross that line for a second consecutive season. However, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests that if it means acquiring both Hader and Soto, the Padres “won’t mind blowing completely past” the tax line.

Over in Los Angeles, the Dodgers have become increasingly optimistic about their chances over the past couple days, per Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. The Dodgers’ perennially deep farm system is rife with top prospects — they have seven of Baseball America’s top 100 farmhands at the moment — and they also possess controllable young big leaguers of potential interest. Both Harris and Heyman suggest infielder Gavin Lux (four more years of team control) and righty Dustin May (nearing return from Tommy John surgery, with three more years of control) as potential targets for Washington.

As of yesterday morning, the Yankees were reported to be a “long shot,” the Rangers weren’t said to be particularly aggressive, and Mariners president Jerry Dipoto had gone on record to suggest his team is unlikely to land Soto. Adding to that list of teams that inquired but seems unlikely to be a serious player, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Guardians looked into Soto but talks never gained traction. Washington was interested in top Cleveland pitching prospect Daniel Espino, but health was again a factor in talks, as he’s been out since April due to a knee injury.

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