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Matt Mervis

Cubs Activate Cody Bellinger, Option Matt Mervis

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The Cubs reinstated Cody Bellinger from the 10-day injured list this afternoon. Highly-touted first baseman Matt Mervis was optioned to Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding transaction.

Bellinger is in the lineup tonight against Pittsburgh righty Johan Oviedo, hitting sixth and playing first base. It’s his first start there in two years. Bellinger came up as a first baseman but moved primarily to the outfield by 2019, as the Dodgers (and subsequently Chicago) wanted to take advantage of his elite athleticism. Bellinger has been a very good defensive outfielder but he’ll break back in at first base after losing nearly a month to a left knee contusion.

Manager David Ross suggested as much earlier this week. Sprinting is still causing Bellinger some issues, and while the Cubs feel he’s sufficiently healthy to return to the diamond, they’ll try to ease the stress by putting him at a less demanding position. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters yesterday the club is hopeful of getting Bellinger back in the outfield at some point but didn’t specify a timeline (relayed by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune).

Bellinger will try to pick up where he left off before the injury. The former MVP has been enjoying something of a bounceback season in Chicago. He’s hitting .271/.343/.493 over 163 trips to the plate. That’s not peak form but far better than his results from his final two seasons in Los Angeles, largely attributable to him cutting his strikeout rate from around 27% to 19% this year.

His return displaces Mervis, who heads back to the minors for the first time since he was called up on May 5. The Duke product tore up minor league pitching in 2022 and started this season with a .286/.402/.560 showing in Triple-A. He couldn’t carry that success over in his first look at big league arms. Mervis hit .167/.242/.289 over his initial 27 MLB games, striking out in 32 of his 99 trips to the plate.

There’s little sense for the Cubs in relegating him to a bench role, as he’s still a potential key offensive piece for the organization moving forward. With Bellinger at first base and Chicago using a rotation at designated hitter — Trey Mancini, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni and Ian Happ have split the last five starts there — the clearest path for Mervis to get consistent reps was by sending him back to Iowa.

Cubs Promote Matt Mervis

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May 5: The Cubs officially selected Mervis’s contract this morning, as noted by MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. In a corresponding move, infielder Edwin Rios was optioned to Triple-A Iowa. The club already had an open spot on the 40-man roster, so no additional move was required to select Mervis. Mervis will make his MLB debut in this afternoon’s game against the Marlins, playing first base and batting seventh.

Rios, 29, has struggled with the Cubs so far this season, albeit in a tiny sample of just 25 plate appearances, with a slash line of .100/.280/.300 and nine strikeouts. He figures to serve as infield depth for the club at the Triple-A level going forward.

May 4: The Cubs will select the contract of first base prospect Matt Mervis, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’s not with the team for today’s series finale in D.C. but will join the Cubs when they return to Chicago tomorrow to kick off a homestand with a series against the Marlins.

Mervis, 25, was a 39th-round pick of the Nationals back in 2016 but didn’t sign, instead opting to attend college at Duke. He wasn’t selected in the shortened, five-round iteration of the 2020 draft and wound up signing with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent.

That’s proven to be quite the find for the Cubs, as Mervis has laid waste to minor league pitching and established himself as one of the organization’s top-ranked prospects. Over the past two seasons, Mervis has skyrocketed from High-A to Triple-A (and now the Majors), batting a combined .305/.383/.615 with 42 home runs in 161 games across three minor league levels. That includes a torrid .286/.402/.560 slash and six home runs through his first 112 plate appearances in Triple-A this season.

Baseball America ranks Mervis fourth among Cubs farmhands, while MLB.com has him sixth. Mervis is generally regarded as an all-bat prospect, as he’s a sub-par runner and not a standout defender  at first base. BA’s report on him notes that a shortened swing and refined approach at the plate unlocked a new level of performance for Mervis in 2022, and he’s clearly kept that up in 2023, given that he’s walked (16.1%) nearly as often as he’s punched out (17%). The left-handed-hitting Mervis was awful against left-handed pitchers in his first pro season, but he improved to .268/.339/.529 against southpaws in 174 plate appearances last year and is 6-for-20 with two homers, two doubles, six walks and six strikeouts in 27 plate appearances against same-handed opponents so far in 2023 (.300/.482/.700).

Mervis’ ascension to the big leagues comes at a time when veteran first baseman Eric Hosmer is struggling, having batted just .250/.294/.363 in 85 plate appearances. Cubs first basemen are still hitting .296/.331/.470 on the season, though that’s skewed by the fact that the vast majority of Trey Mancini’s production has happened to come while he’s playing at first base rather than in the outfield or at designated hitter. Mancini is certainly capable of playing either outfield corner and has enough bat to be an option at DH, so there’s room to get both into the lineup.

Keeping Hosmer, who’s also a lefty hitting, first base-only player on the roster alongside Mervis would be trickier, though there’s no direct indication yet that Mervis’ promotion puts Hosmer’s roster spot in jeopardy. Hosmer himself recently acknowledged that may end up being the case in an interview with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, though he voiced nothing but support for Mervis.

“This is my 13th year in the league,” Hosmer told Rosenthal. “I’m not going to sit here and be bitter about a young kid coming up. That’s not right. … I was in spring with Matty. I was always trying to help, give him my two cents on what’s coming for him in the league, how you can simplify some stuff. It’s not something where I’m watching over my shoulder, or living and dying by his at-bats. When it comes that time, that’s when you can move on and do something else. I know he’s going to be a big part of this organization. I’ve got to help him any way I can.”

While future optional assignments can always impact a player’s timeline to arbitration and free agent, it’s worth at least outlining where those milestones currently stand for Mervis. If he’s in the big leagues for good from this point forth, he’ll fall shy of a full year of service in 2023 (barring a top-two finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting). That means he’d be on pace to reach free agency after the 2029 season, although an early-May call-up will surely afford him enough service time to qualify as a Super Two player. As such, he’d reach arbitration following the 2025 season and be eligible four times rather than the standard three.

If Mervis does manage to secure a top-two place in NL Rookie of the Year voting, he’d gain a full year of service and bump his free agent timeline up to the 2028-29 offseason in the process. He’d still be arb-eligible following the 2025 season, but he’d get there as a player with three years of service and thus only be eligible three times.

Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Liberatore, Soderstrom, Naylor, Silseth

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It feels good to breathe again – by which I mean identify players to write about based upon who is tearing up minor league ball. While there hasn’t been much action yet, we have many big-name prospects appearing in Triple-A boxscores. Catchers feature prominently this week.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 22, 2B/SS, ATL (AAA)
16 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .417/.563/1.083

One of the top performers of Opening Weekend, Grissom seeks to embarrass the Braves for choosing Orlando Arcia and Ehire Adrianza over him. This is his first exposure to Triple-A after spending most of 2022 in High-A and the Majors. The extra taste of upper-minors action could be designed to avoid a developmental setback related to facing Major League pitching. Grissom appeared overexposed late last season once scouting reports were refined. There are still questions about his shortstop defense – questions that should be answered during the course of 2023.

Matthew Liberatore, 23, SP, STL (AAA)
5 IP, 12.60 K/9, 3.60 BB/9, 0.00 ERA

Of the prospect pitchers in Triple-A, Liberatore posted the best 2023 debut. He allowed six baserunners in five innings of work with seven strikeouts. Liberatore is a complicated player to scout. His individual pitches rate well, especially a visually filthy curve ball. The issue is his curve doesn’t tunnel with any of his other offerings, making it identifiable out of the hand. Last season, Liberatore worked to a 5.17 ERA in Triple-A with a 5.97 ERA in 34.2 Major League innings.

Tyler Soderstrom, 21, C/1B, OAK (AAA)
10 PA, 1 HR, .556/.600/1.222

A first-round pick from the wonky 2020 draft, Soderstrom surged through the minors last season. His bat is his calling card. He’s particularly adept at producing high exit velocities at an ideal launch angle. Defensively, he leaves much to be desired. While he could conceivably stick at catcher with several more years of hard work, his bat is nearly Major League ready and should play at first base. For that reason, as well as the presence of Shea Langeliers, Soderstrom is widely expected to switch to the cold corner on a more permanent basis this season.

Bo Naylor, 23, C, CLE (AAA)
15 PA, 2 HR, .385/.467/.923

Naylor is coming off a huge rebound season in the minors with an aim toward building upon his reputation as a power-hitting backstop. He has above-average speed for a catcher and could potentially move off the position over the long haul. His defensive capability is viewed as below average at this time. For now, the Guardians have rostered a trio of catchers known mainly for their defense. Like Soderstrom, Naylor’s bat is his carrying trait. He is a discipline-forward slugger whose high rate of contact is offset by an unwillingness to swing at pitches he can’t barrel. The result is a high strikeout rate despite a low swinging strike rate.

Chase Silseth, 23, SP, LAA (AAA)
5 IP, 10.80 K/9, 1.80 BB/9, 0.00

Silseth popped up as a standout in Double-A early last season. The pitching-needy Angels brought him directly to the Majors where he posted a 6.59 ERA (4.24 xFIP) in 28.2 innings. Silseth has a five-pitch repertoire. I’ve received mixed notes on his command. While we know he doesn’t issue many free passes, that could be because his stuff plays in the zone against minor league hitters. His best offering is a splitter. Silseth himself blamed the splitter for his poor performance in the Majors, noting that he needed the pitch to be on to succeed. Splitter consistency is a difficult trait to develop, especially for a starting pitcher. Don’t be surprised if he’s inconsistent as he loses and regains feel for his top weapon.

Three More

Matt Mervis, CHC (25): Mervis is an odd prospect in that he continues to torch the ball, yet scouts doubt his ability to hold a regular role in the Majors. He has a 1.167 OPS through 15 plate appearances. We should see him tested against Major League pitching before the calendar flips to summer.

Brett Baty, NYM (24): Baty’s strong spring continued into Triple-A. He has two home runs, a stolen base, and a 1.257 OPS through 15 plate appearances. Mets fans on social media are eager to see Baty oust Eduardo Escobar who is currently 1-for-16 with seven strikeouts.

Connor Norby, BAL (22): The Orioles’ impending glut of middle infielders includes Norby. The second baseman consistently outperforms his modest scouting grades. Bear in mind, the Orioles’ minor league venues are far friendlier to right-handed batters than Camden Yards. Norby strikes me as an obvious trade candidate later this summer.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Volpe, Mervis, Bae, Macko

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With the Rule 5 Draft looming, we’ll touch on a few more names who could find themselves with a new organization in the next few days. We’ll also start our pivot to offseason mode, highlighting prospects who are in the news.

Five BHPs In The News

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
69.2 IP, 12.53 K/9, 2.71 BB/9, 2.20 ERA

If not for a lat strain, Rodriguez would have graduated from prospect lists. The Orioles are in the market for multiple starting pitchers, but Rodriguez reportedly has an inside path to an Opening Day role, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The consensus top pitching prospect in the league wields upwards of five above-average offerings with a superstar-caliber changeup as his headliner. Rodriguez’s rookie campaign will go a long way toward determining if the Orioles can build upon their surprising 2022 success.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 511 PA, 21 HR, 50 SB, .249/.342/.460

The Yankees aren’t expected to be active participants in the shortstop market this winter largely because Volpe and Oswald Peraza await in the wings. Peraza already has a successful 57 plate appearance stint in the Majors, albeit with worrisome exit velocities. Getting back to Volpe, he only has 99 plate appearances of experience in Triple-A and might merit further seasoning. He hit just .236/.313/.404 in the minor’s highest level, good for only a 91 wRC+. His swing is geared for extreme fly ball rates. As a result, his batting average might play below his raw tools. If he continues hitting over 50 percent fly balls, he profiles as a future 40-homer threat as he ages into more strength. Initially, he might frustrate with too many softly hit flies and pop-outs. There’s also potential for him to tighten up his launch angle to sacrifice a few home runs for better outcomes on average. Volpe has multiple pathways to superstardom.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 512 PA, 36 HR, 2 SB, .309/.379/.606

A frequent guest of this column in recent months, Mervis charged through three levels while greatly improving his contact rate and plate discipline at each stop. For icing on the cake, he turned in a quality performance in the AFL. He’s very much in consideration for an Opening Day role as the Cubs first baseman or designated hitter. Chicago is reportedly on the hunt for a first baseman, but that won’t necessarily affect Mervis since designated hitter is also vacant. He profiles as a way-too-early frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year.

Ji Hwan Bae, 23, 2B/OF, PIT (MLB)
(AAA) 473 PA, 8 HR, 30 SB, .289/.362/.430

Bae turned in 37 solid plate appearances in the Majors. Like Peraza above, Bae posted an above-average batting line despite worrisome quality of contact. He mostly played second base and shortstop in the minors with some time in center field too. Outfield might be his best path forward on the Major League roster. There’s a whiff of Tommy Edman to Bae. He has defensive utility, a speed-first profile, and makes low-angle contact leading to high BABIPs and rare home runs. The Pirates are said to be considering middle infield additions which could affect Bae’s Opening Day assignment.

Adam Macko, 21, SP, TOR (A+)
38.1 IP, 14.09 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 3.99 ERA

The Blue Jays acquired Macko as half of the return for Teoscar Hernandez. A mystery injury prevented Macko from working much this season, though he did appear in the AFL. The upcoming season is his Rule 5 evaluation year which might push him toward a bullpen role. He has the stuff to start – a three-pitch repertoire of average or better offerings. The southpaw is inconsistent, often losing command of his secondary offerings. Predictably, his fastball plays down when this happens. When he’s on, he mows through low-minors hitters as evidenced by 14.09 K/9 and a 15.8 percent swinging strike rate.

Five More Rule 5ers

Kameron Misner, TBR (24): Originally acquired in exchange for Joey Wendle, Misner has plus discipline, power, and speed. He’s a capable defensive centerfielder. Misner has yet to taste Triple-A despite never posting a below-average batting line. His biggest weakness is a lofty strikeout rate, but the rest of his profile seemingly supports this drawback. Among hitters, Misner would top my personal Rule 5 wishlist as a fifth outfielder and potential righty-masher.

Ronny Simon, TBR (22): Although he lacks Misner’s physicality and upside, Simon might be even more likely to be selected. He performed well in the Arizona Fall League following solid High- and Double-A campaigns. At the plate, Simon hides swing-and-miss issues with aggression. He’s developed sneaky pop and has shown a willingness to steal bases. Simon is a utility man who fits best at second or third base.

Andres Chaparro, NYY (23): The Yankees infield depth likely led them to leave Chaparro unprotected. He’s coming off an impressive performance at Double-A including a .289/.369/.594 line with 19 home runs in 271 plate appearances. The main knock against him is a lack of durability. He’s a corner infielder by trade.

Adrian Hernandez, TOR (22): A diminutive right-hander (by baseball standards), Hernandez is a changeup specialist who succeeds by keeping opponents off balance. Between his stature and pitching approach, it’s an unusual profile. ‘Unusual’ tends to do well in the current meta. Hernandez pitched well early in 2022. He struggled upon returning from a shoulder injury.

Cam Devanney, MIL (25): Although he’s never really appeared on prospect lists, Devanney made a swing adjustment last season. He now looks like a sure-fire Major Leaguer. He flashed power and adequate discipline at Double-A and performed well in a brief trial at Triple-A. His most attractive trait is utility – he’s proven himself a capable defender at shortstop, second, and third base.

Latest On Cubs’ First Base Plans

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The average batting line for first basemen in 2022 was .246/.320/.410, wRC+ of 107. For the Cubs, they used various players at the cold corner for a combined slash line of .232/.304/.348, wRC+ of 86, that latter stat being 24th out of the 30 MLB teams. Given that disparity, the Cubs will undoubtedly be looking for better production in 2023. They might have an in-house solution in Matt Mervis, though they will also be looking for external upgrades this winter. “He’s very much in our plans,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said about Mervis, per Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “But I think we’re also going to be active in exploring alternatives.”

Mervis has really exploded onto the scene in 2022. As mentioned in the piece linked above, he didn’t get drafted in either 2019 or 2020, eventually signing with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent. He played 72 minor league games in 2021, hitting at a below-average level.

2022 has been a completely different story, however. He began the season in High-A and completely mashed, producing a batting line of .350/.389/.650, wRC+ of 189. He got bumped to Double-A and hit .300/.370/.596 for a wRC+ of 148. After moving to Triple-A, his line was .297/.383/.593, 152 wRC+. Incredibly, his walk rate improved from 4.6% to 8.7% to 10.4% as he moved up the ladder, while his strikeout rate fell from 24.1% to 20% to 14.6%. The Cubs decided to keep the good times rolling by sending him to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .262/.324/.590 in 17 games.

It’s not just the bat that has the Cubs excited either. “He’s more athletic than people think,” Cubs vice president of player development Jared Banner said. “He knows his way around the bag at first base. He’s a nice, big target, and he actually grades out really well defensively. No concerns there.”

Despite that tremendous breakout season, it stands to reason that the Cubs don’t want to simply hand over the starting job to Mervis just based on that. “We’re thrilled with what he’s doing,” Hoyer said. “We know he’s a big part of where we’re going. But at the same time, we have to be cognizant of having real depth. Injuries and other things happen.”

With Mervis seemingly on the cusp of reaching the majors but not a guarantee to immediately succeed, it’s likely that the club will look for a short-term addition to first base. That way, should Mervis continue charging forward, he wouldn’t be blocked from securing the full-time job. The Cubs don’t really have a player locked into the designated hitter mix, so it’s possible that Mervis could co-exist on the roster with someone who will require a long-term deal like, say, Josh Bell. However, teams generally don’t like clogging up the DH spot and prefer to rotate players through there. That’s especially true of a team like the Cubs that’s still trying to give at-bats to young players and evaluate their capabilities against major league pitching. That being said, with no real lock for first or DH, the Cubs are one of the teams best suited to fit a bat-first player into their lineup.

MLBTR’s Top 50 had Josh Bell as the top available first baseman, predicted a contract of four years and $64MM, or $16MM per year. However, Jose Abreu was actually pegged for a higher contract in terms of average annual value: $40MM over two years. Abreu has a longer and more impressive track record but he’s more than five years older than Bell, hence the disparity. The White Sox seem set to let Abreu walk and replace him with Andrew Vaughn at first, and the Cubs have been reported to be interested in facilitating a crosstown move. Brandon Drury would be a sensible fit, if the Cubs are content with moving him to second or third base in the event Mervis takes over at first.

If the Cubs opt for a more short-term solution, players that can likely be had on one-year deals include Brandon Belt, Matt Carpenter, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel or Wil Myers. There’s also the trade market, which could feature bats like Rowdy Tellez or Eric Hosmer. Tellez still has two seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected for a $5.3MM salary this year by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Hosmer still has three years left on his deal but the Padres agreed to pay down everything but the league minimum when trading him to the Red Sox.

There are many different options available to the club and how they proceed will depend on how much faith they have in Mervis and how much they want to spend. Last year, the Cubs gave out a whole bunch of one-year deals to veterans, with Seiya Suzuki’s five years and Marcus Stroman’s three years (with an opt-out after two) the only multi-year deals.

Big Hype Prospects: Sheehan, Perez Jr., Kjerstad, Walker, Mervis

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Our Arizona Fall League prospect coverage is coming to a close. The league wraps up its postseason this weekend. We’ll use this opportunity for one last peek at game action before affiliated baseball closes down for the year.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 20.1 IP, 8 BB, 24 K, 3.54 ERA

Arguably the top pitching prospect in the AFL, Sheehan had a shaky start to his fall season. He ended with a masterpiece: a five-inning, 10-strikeout gem. He allowed one hit and one walk in the outing. A right-handed changeup specialist, command is the main bugaboo when it comes to Sheehan’s development. His repertoire plays together in a way that should flummox hitters at all levels. As a Dodger, there is increased pressure to refine his command if he wants to stick in the rotation. Most clubs would comfortably view him as a future starter – one who might fumble a few games in the early innings but make up for it by dominating in others. The Dodgers could yet opt to turn him into a swing-man or reliever as they have with several able pitching prospects in recent years.

Robert Perez Jr., 22, 1B, SEA (A+)
AFL: 77 PA, 3 HR, .231/.338/.415

A slow-burn prospect whose calling card is power, Perez neither seized nor fumbled his opportunity in the AFL. The Rule 5-eligible first baseman has impressive power which he put on display by winning the first Fall Stars Home Run Derby. He performed well during the regular season – mostly at Low-A where he was a tad old for the level. His potent regular season and passable AFL campaign should lead to a promotion to Double-A early in the season. Whether or not the Mariners opt to add him to their 40-man, the right-handed slugger probably isn’t ready for a straight jump to the Majors via the Rule 5 Draft. Even in the AFL, he struck out 22 times in 77 plate appearances (28 percent).

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 104 PA, 5 HR, .357/.385/.622

Few players had more to prove this fall than Kjerstad. Now that the smoke has cleared, he answered some questions and raised others. The left-handed hitting outfielder led the league in plate appearances and at bats. He recorded five walks and 31 strikeouts. Given the modest quality of pitching in the AFL, it’s fair to wonder about his combination of aggression and swing-and-miss tendencies. This is a long-standing issue dating back to pre-draft reports. He worked on it during the regular season – possibly to the detriment of his power. On-site observers raved about the quality of Kjerstad’s contact… whenever he connected. Between premium exit velocities, plenty of fly balls, and all those at bats, it’s no surprise he led the league in extra-base hits.
Such prospects succeed when they’re adept at making adjustments. Kjerstad should get his first taste of the upper minors at some point next season.

Jordan Walker, 20, OF/3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 90 PA, 5 HR, 3 SB, .286/.367/.558

While others had flashier showings, Walker was the talk of the AFL. He handled himself with poise while flashing a superstar ceiling – both by the traditional eye-test and via Statcast measurables. He likely could hold his own in the Majors as soon as next season. The Cardinals have been working on shifting him to the outfield in deference to Nolan Arenado. The main element lacking in Walker’s development is the easiest to supply – experience. He needs more opportunities to face and adjust to star-caliber pitching. Along the way, he’ll likely develop into a regular All-Star candidate.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 68 PA, 6 HR, 2 SB, .262/.324/.590

Of AFL participants (excluding Joey Wentz), Mervis probably has the best chance to open 2023 in the Majors. Including the regular season, he hit 42 home runs in 646 plate appearances this year. Remarkably, especially for the AFL home run leader, he fanned just eight times (11.8% K%) this fall. He also improved his strikeout rate continuously throughout the regular season. He began in High-A, where he recorded a 24.1 percent strikeout rate. That dropped to just 20.0 percent in Double-A and 14.6 percent in Triple-A. The low rate at his final stop coincided with an 8.7 percent swinging strike rate – far better than the league average. If Mervis can continue to avoid strikeouts while tapping into his power, he’ll have a bright future as a mid-lineup left-handed slugger.

Five More

Edouard Julien (23): Julien has been covered ad nauseum in this column. No prospect did more to further their claim to a future Major League role this fall. He’ll almost certainly be protected from the upcoming Rule 5 Draft. Julien’s combination of discipline, contact, sneaky pop, and sneakier baserunning are the traits of a regular. He still needs to settle into a position defensively – an issue that has arisen a few times in the Twins recent past (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda, Nick Gordon).

Evan Reifert, TBR (23): Reifert allowed a hit in his final inning of work, closing out the season with 11.2 innings, 40 batters faced, one hit allowed, four walks, and 25 strikeouts. Despite a relatively low inning total, he had the second-most strikeouts. The showing will help put him in consideration for a Major League role next season. The Rays have a crammed 40-man roster, and Reifert isn’t Rule 5-eligible until next offseason.

Tyler Hardman, NYY (23): A developing slugger with potent pop, Hardman is coming off Player of the Week honors. Overall, he posted a .325/.373/.662 line in 83 plate appearances. Of qualified hitters, he had the fourth-best OPS. Contact and inconsistent defense at the hot corner hold him back from appearing on prospect lists.

Nick Gonzales, PIT (23): Gonzales dropped from the spotlight due to injury and flawed performance. His AFL stint allowed him to build on a solid first showing in Double-A. In both settings, he succeeded without truly impressing. Whiffs remain an issue for a second baseman who is heavily dependent on his offensive output.

Francisco Morales, PHI (23): Morales is an interesting AFL participant because the Phillies have already burned two of his option years. They’re likely assessing if he should remain on the roster at all. He was one of four pitchers to throw 10 or more AFL innings without allowing an earned run. He recorded 17 strikeouts with only four hits allowed in 10.2 innings. He also issued seven free passes. Those walk issues have haunted him on a regular basis.

Big Hype Prospects: Veen, Sheehan, Kjerstad, Mervis, McLain

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Big Hype Prospects continues with a look at the early results from the Arizona Fall League. This is, historically, a hitter-centric league so it will come as no surprise that the best early performers are mostly position players.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Zac Veen, 20, OF, COL (AA)
AFL: 31 PA, 1 HR, 7 SB, .455/.581/.636

Veen has posted video-game numbers, especially on the basepaths. During the regular season, he stole 55 bases in 64 attempts (541 plate appearances). He’s upped the ante in Arizona, swiping a league-leading seven bags in eight attempts. Veen’s biggest statistical weakness is an elevated swinging strike rate. To close out the season, he posted a 15 percent swinging strike rate at Double-A while batting .177/.262/.234 in 141 plate appearances. His early rebound at the fall league is an encouraging sign.

Emmet Sheehan, 22, SP, LAD (AA)
AFL: 6 IP, 5 K, 2 H, 2 BB, 2 HBP, 0.00 ERA

One of only a few pitchers with serious clout in the AFL, Sheehan has held opponents scoreless through two appearances. He’s presently on the cusp of Top 100 prospect status for many evaluators. The Dodgers consistent ability to get the most out of their pitching prospects certainly contributes an added hint of optimism.

Command is the limiting factor for his development, and it happens to be the only thing he’s struggled with thus far in Arizona. Sheehan’s repertoire is a tad unusual. While a fastball-curve-changeup trio sounds vanilla, he’s a right-hander whose best pitch is a changeup. His fastball and curve tunnel well and can have upwards of 20-mph of separation. Scouting reports tend to downplay his curve when viewed on its own, but the pitch seems to play up within his repertoire.

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (A+)
AFL: 40 PA, 3 HR, .368/.400/.711

The second-overall pick of the weird 2020 draft, Kjerstad missed all of 2021 due to heart inflammation. He finally made his minor league debut this season. He steamrolled Low-A pitchers in 98 plate appearances then struggled versus High-A opponents. Since he’s missed so much time, his performance in the AFL will have more influence on how evaluators view him than most other participants. Presently, he’s tied for the league lead with three home runs. Notably, he’s also struck out 10 times which is right on par with his strikeout rate in High-A.

Matt Mervis, 24, 1B, CHC (AAA)
AFL: 21 PA, 3 HR, .263/.333/.842

The co-leader in home runs is Mervis. He’s accomplished the feat in 19 fewer plate appearances than Kjerstad. Mervis spent the regular season climbing from High- to Triple-A. Along the way, he hit 36 home runs in 578 plate appearances. His plate discipline and contact rates improved at every level, culminating in a 10.4 percent walk rate, 14.6 percent strikeout rate, and 8.7 percent swinging strike rate in Triple-A. He’s a classic pulled contact, fly ball masher built for the height of the juiced ball era. He should arrive in Chicago early next season. He’ll enjoy Wrigley Field when the winds are blowing out.

Matt McLain, 23, SS, CIN (AA)
AFL: 30 PA, 2 SB, .200/.467/.250

A talented middle infielder now overshadowed by Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte, McLain could make a case for a quick promotion to the Majors with a strong showing this fall. To date, he’s shown epic patience, working a league-leading 10 walks in just 30 plate appearances. He’ll need to show a stronger knack for making quality contact, whether in play or over the fence. His 2022 campaign at Double-A was characterized by plenty of discipline (15.5 percent walk rate), decent power (.221 ISO), and a poor .232 batting average. While batting average isn’t tightly related to production, most quality prospects tend to post high averages in the minors.

Five More

Joey Wentz, DET (24): It’s uncommon but not entirely unheard of for players with Major League experience to play in the AFL. Wentz pitched 32.2 effective innings with the Tigers, including a 3.03 ERA (4.56 xFIP). He missed the early portion of the season, so he’ll make a few extra starts to further build his workload. A former 40th-overall pick, Wentz threw four perfect innings in his first AFL appearance.

Luisangel Acuna, TEX (20): Acuna lacks the same raw tools as his talented older brother, but his development has progressed encouragingly nonetheless. He reached Double-A as a 20-year-old. He has picked up where he left off in the AFL, batting .300/.323/.633 with a pair of home runs in 31 plate appearances. Don’t worry about the low walk rate, his discipline might be his carrying trait.

Nick Yorke, BOS (20): After a poor regular season campaign, Yorke is looking to put his name back on the map with a hot finish. Thus far, he’s hitting .300/.410/.400 in 39 plate appearances. He’s yet to homer or steal a base. He has, however, worked six walks compared to six strikeouts. In High-A, his strikeout rate was three times higher than his walk rate.

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): Gelof is well-regarded by Athletics personnel, though his on-field results weren’t ideal. He finished the year on a power-binge in Triple-A, blasting five home runs in 38 plate appearances. He blasted two home runs on Thursday, his first of the AFL season. Overall, he’s batting .259/.355/.481.

Jordan Lawlar, ARI (20): Although he sputtered statistically to end the season in Double-A, scouting reports continually put Lawlar in the discussion for the number one prospect. In 32 plate appearances, he’s hitting .333/.500/.667 with two home runs and three steals in four attempts. 2023 is his age 20 season, and there’s an outside chance he’ll debut. A hot AFL would help those odds.

NL Notes: Cubs, Nationals, Marlins

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Chicago Cubs veteran starter Wade Miley left yesterday’s game with left oblique tightness after fielding a bunt, according to MLB.com. Miley, who will be 36 next season, has had a frustrating, injury-filled season. The southpaw started the season on the 10-day injured list with left elbow inflammation and dealt with an additional left shoulder strain before being activated in early May. He would make three starts in May before being faced with injuries again, eventually being placed on the 60-day injured list with a left shoulder strain in June.

The Cubs’ acquisition of Miley via waivers from the Cincinnati Reds in the offseason was rather noteworthy, as the lefty came with a $10MM salary for the 2022 season and the Cubs were not considered contenders entering the 2022 season. Miley was coming off a rather productive four-year stretch, posting a 3.53 ERA in 425 1/3 innings and making 81 starts, albeit with a low 18.0% strikeout rate and an average 8.1% walk rate. However, Miley ranked highly in his ability to miss bats; he was in the 95th percentile for Average Exit Velocity, 83rd percentile for HardHit%, 75th percentile for Barrel %, and 77th percentile for Chase Rate in the 2021 season. With the Cubs out of contention for the 2022 playoffs and Miley a free agent at the end of the season, the Cubs may decide to end his season early and give starts to players fighting to make the starting rotation in the spring.

Elsewhere in the National League:

  • The Cubs have been searching for Anthony Rizzo’s heir, and they might have found it, reports Patrick Mooney of the Athletic. First baseman Matt Mervis has had a remarkable 2022 season. Beginning in High-A South Bend, the 24-year-old mashed pitchers to the tune of .350/.389/.650 with a 1.039 OPS in 100 at-bats before being promoted to Double-A Tennessee. Mervis picked up right where he left off, slashing .300/.370/.596/.966 with 14 home runs in 203 at-bats, earning a promotion to Triple-A Iowa and continuing to punish pitchers, posting a .297/.387/.595 slash line for a .982 OPS with another 14 home runs in 195 at-bats. On the heels of this dominant showing throughout the Minors, Cubs manager David Ross has been rather coy on the Cubs’ plans for Mervis, stating that “there’s no doubt that he’ll have a great opportunity in front of him moving forward”  and that Mervis is “definitely on the radar.”
  • As Washington Nationals’ rookie pitcher Josiah Gray wraps up his 2022 season, the Nationals are keeping a close eye on his innings count and have hinted at the possibility of shutting him down early, as reported by MLB.com. Coming to the Nationals from the Los Angeles Dodgers as part of the Trea Turner and Max Scherzer trade in 2021, Gray has shown flashes of brilliance and growing pains. Cumulatively, Gray has pitched to 5.17 ERA (27 starts) in 142 2/3 innings with an above-average 24.2% strikeout rate and a high 10.4% walk rate. However, these numbers do not explain the whole story, with Gray posting a 1.13 ERA in June (24 innings) and only allowing 13 hits and 3 earned runs. However, in July, Gray pitched to a 6.75 ERA (26 2/3 innings), giving up 30 hits and 20 earned runs. With the Nationals at the bottom of the NL East, they may turn their focus to the 2023 season and give Gray an extended offseason in preparation for his age-25 season.
  • In other Nationals news, southpaw MacKenzie Gore, who was acquired in the Juan Soto and Josh Bell blockbuster at the trade deadline, is working back from his left elbow inflammation, according to MLB.com. Gore has been on the injured list since July 26 and is currently continuing his rehabilitation in Triple-A Rochester. The Nationals are hoping that the 23-year-old will make at least one big league start with the team before the end of the season, and plan to have him throw 75-plus pitches in his next rehab start.
  • The Miami Marlins’ rebuild has yet to bear any fruit, and the team may be adjusting its roster for the 2023 season. Having traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, and Marcell Ozuna in the span of a few years, fans were aware that the team was entering a rebuild. However, the rebuild has yet to show any moderate signs of success. After making the postseason in 2020, the Marlins seem destined to finish the season below .500 for the twelfth time in the last thirteen seasons. An article by Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins view former first-rounder JJ Bleday as a “serviceable starter or platoon outfielder” and that “he does not project as a full-time center fielder.” Since a late July callup, Bleday has posted a measly .169/.285/.305/.590 slash line in his first MLB season with an inflated 28.5% strikeout percentage but with a high 13% walk rate. In a similar thought, the Marlins are “no longer counting on ” Lewin Díaz as their everyday first baseman because of his poor offensive performance. In his third season of Major League action, Díaz has posted a .163/.223/.281/.504 slash line in 148 plate appearances. Importantly, Díaz has seen an increase in his strikeout percentage and is fanning at a 30.4% clip and only walking at 6.8%.
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