The Cubs are facing the potential free agent departures of a pair of veteran starters, with both Drew Smyly and Wade Miley headed towards the open market a month from now. Miley will be a free agent, while Smyly’s contract contains a $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout for the 2023 campaign.
Theoretically, a team will only exercise its end of a mutual option if it feels the price is at or below the player’s market value. The player, conversely, will typically only trigger his end if he feels the option price is at or above what he could find on the open market. Thus, mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties. In the vast majority of cases, players with mutual options are essentially impending free agents.
That’s the case for Smyly, but there’s a chance he doesn’t remain unsigned until free agency. Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times reports the Cubs are planning to meet with the left-hander’s representatives at Frontline later this month to discuss a potential new contract. Lee notes it’s unlikely Smyly will return on the terms of the mutual option itself but it’s possible the sides can line up on a new deal. As is the case with all impending free agents, the Cubs will have an exclusive negotiating window with Smyly until five days after the end of the World Series.
Smyly has technically had a pair of stints as a Cub, although he didn’t throw a pitch with Chicago until 2022. He signed a two-year deal heading into the 2018 season, with the Cubs aware he’d miss all of that season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. After the ’18 campaign, Chicago dealt him to the Rangers. Smyly pitched for four different teams from 2019-21 before returning to the Cubs on a one-year deal this spring. He received a $4.25MM salary for this past season and will be guaranteed another $1MM on the option buyout.
The 33-year-old had a generally solid return season to the North Siders. He missed a month mid-summer with a right oblique strain, but he otherwise stayed healthy enough to take the ball 22 times. Across 106 1/3 innings, Smyly posted a 3.47 ERA. He struck out a career-worst 20.4% of opponents, leading to less favorable reviews from fielding independent estimators. On the plus side, he only walked 5.8% of batters faced (below the 7.5% league average for starters) and held opponents to a meager 86.7 MPH average exit velocity. Smyly’s 12.4% swinging strike rate was an above-average mark that suggests he was somewhat unfortunate to generate his mediocre strikeout percentage, and he absolutely stifled left-handed opponents to the tune of a .191/.277/.326 line through 101 plate appearances.
Smyly doesn’t have eye-popping velocity, and his below-average ground-ball numbers have contributed to home run troubles in prior years. The longball wasn’t much of an issue this season, though, and he’s generally posted solid strikeout and walk numbers throughout his career. He’s spent time on the injured list each year since 2016, failing to reach 130 innings in any of the past six seasons. He’s not been a prototypical innings eater, but he’s pitched to a decent 3.96 ERA in 259 1/3 frames going back to the start of 2020.
The Cubs didn’t seem to aggressively market and/or find much trade interest in Smyly this summer. Despite his being a rental on a non-competitive team, there weren’t many public trade rumors leading up to the deadline. Smyly pitched to a sparkling 2.28 ERA in nine starts after the deadline, however, sending him towards free agency on the heels of a strong final couple months.
Whether that’ll be enough for the Arkansas product to find a multi-year deal heading into his age-34 season remains to be seen. Alex Cobb received a two-year, $20MM pact at the same age last winter. Cobb was coming off 98 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA ball through 18 starts. He had a similar swinging strike rate in 2021 as Smyly did this season, but Cobb finished off more strikeouts and had an excellent 53.3% grounder rate. It seems unlikely Smyly will get quite to that level as a result, but there’s recent precedent for a multi-year deal for a pitcher coming off a broadly similar showing at the same age.
As another recent comparison point, Corey Kluber landed a one-year, $8MM guarantee (with incentives that could take the deal’s value to $13MM) after pitching 80 innings with a 3.83 ERA and a 12.5% swinging strike percentage last year. Kluber, a two-time Cy Young winner, has had a far more accomplished career than Smyly, but his 2021 production wasn’t far off Smyly’s 2022 numbers.
President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer didn’t address contract specifics, but he did broadly suggest the Cubs would have interest in retaining both Smyly and Miley. “With both guys, in the right setup, we’d love to have them back,” Hoyer told reporters this afternoon (via Lee). “They both have a really positive impact on the organization. And there’s no finish line when it comes to adding guys that can make starts in the big leagues and that can add to your culture.”
Among in-house options, the Cubs are certain to pencil Marcus Stroman and Kyle Hendricks into the Opening Day rotation. Left-hander Justin Steele pitched well enough through 24 starts to likely earn a spot as well, but the back of the rotation is mostly up for grabs. Hayden Wesneski, acquired from the Yankees in the Scott Effross deadline deal, pitched well through his first four big league starts. He’s in the mix with Keegan Thompson and journeyman Adrian Sampson for back-end roles, but there’s certainly an opportunity for Hoyer and his staff to bolster the group this offseason.
Smyly will get a decent deal to be someone’s number 4/5 he may get 2 to 3 years too. Which is to his credit because he looked like he was done for last year at times but just goes to show that you can never count Leftys out in baseball.
Give you credit for being a Braves fan that doesn’t just blast the guy. I would know something about the desire to want to do that but hey, welcome to baseball.
I would love a list of what mutual options in the last few years WERE excerized. There’s def been a few.
Generally they are cheaper options for mediocre players
$10M for 0.0bWAR for Wade Miley. Nice pickup Cubs
He was injured. I wonder if you can select a player off waivers then return after a physical.
At least they didn’t lose 100 games like the Reds.
I’d punt on Miley if I was Hoyer. Always on the DL. They have plenty of number 4 or 5 starters already. Thompson looked solid before he went in the DL. Steele, Stroman, and the rookies that got called up at end of the season pitched well. Sampson is a guy that bounced around everywhere but whenever he wears a Cubs uni he does not embarrass himself. They might actually have a nice .500 team next season. Ross is a decent manager. Still a few seasons from contending. Just don’t get the feeling that they will win anything even at the next peak though. I felt they would be a .500 team this season. Took a half season to get to the level though.
No one is talking about re-signing Miley, they are talking about Smyly who pitched to a sub 3 era in the second half of the season.
The Cubs have a ton of pitching to get excited about and could make a surprise run at the wild card if the stars align offensively for them next season.
Stroman, Hendricks, Steele, Thompson, Wesneski is full of potential (although I think one of Thompson or Wesneski will be a swing) with Hughes and Huer late. Alzolay could be a lights out bullpen piece as well and that’s just naming a few.
The farm has a lot of exciting arms both as potential rotation pieces as well as future bullpen arms.
Offense will hurt the Cubs unless they strike hold with Mervis and sign a quality middle of the order bat
Anyone giving him a long term deal is crazy
2 yrs. Max
Let him walk because the Cubs have the arms.
They will need a First Baseman, Third Baseman, Center Fielder and a Catcher before they need a back of the rotation arm.
You’re kind of talking out of both sides of your mouth here saying “the cubs have the arms” and then saying “they need a catcher”
A big reason the Cubs “have the arms” is because they have Yan Gomes who is terrific at developing young arms. Any offense Gomes gives you is icing, the guy is here to develop arms and did so in spades this year…
Let me ask, when was the last time the Cubs developed any arm? Now the Cubs churned out Steele, Thompson and Wesneski as potential starters, Hughes in the pen, while Sampson and Smyly tossed career years and you think we “need a catcher”?
You need to learn to write without the rudeness and the Cubs will still need a catcher in this offseason even with Gomes.
Next you will proclaim they don’t need anyone at third base, first base and Center field.
You can always improve the position and the Catcher is important part of the team.
Now let me tell you something if you can’t discuss in a proper manner then write to someone else because I have been watching the Cubs and Baseball in general since the 1970’s and will tell you the Cubs will be in the playoffs next year if those arms keep going but they need upgrades at different positions that I wrote about.
I don’t “need” to do anything, Jake. And isn’t it just a little ironic that you claim I need to learn to without (you taking it as being) rudeness and then you are rude in your response?
But to answer your snippy comment, the Cubs really don’t “need” a first baseman, as for they have Wisdom now and Mervis in AAA and playing in the fall league at the moment.
CF is also not a huge priority since Davis will most likely be giving a shot next season and they also have Canario who crushed it in double and triple A this year who also stands to get a look next seasons. Simply shifting Happ back to CF for Canario if need be.
As for third base, aside from Arenado there isn’t a decent free agent to be signed… going after the premier short stops make sense, then moving Nico over.
Gomes will get the lions share behind the plate, perhaps the continue to go with Higgins or sign a guy like Castro as a back up.
Your at $91M for 2023 outside of a bunch of ARB1 players you have to decide if Happ is worth the $10M he’ll get for ARB3 which puts you at $101M. That leaves you at about $60M below your peers payroll (Hou, SD, CWS) now find the players to spend that on and realize you have Heyward coming off the books in 2024.
– Resign Contreras AV $18M per year and give him 4 years as he can eventually be part time DH.
– Decide the best fit between Syndergaard, Manaea, Taillon and Clevinger and sign one between $15M-$20M a year.
Your top prospects are OFers and between Davis, PCA and Alcantara they should make their debuts in 2023. Go all in on 2024 to sign Devers to that $300M contract.
The Cubs biggest need is a third baseman unless they can sign a DH/first baseman to a short contract (gotta see what Mervis can do).
If the Cubs do sign a first baseman/DH that makes Contreras a wasted contract. A blind man could see how much better the pitching was with Gomes behind the plate than Contreras. Contreras as a primary DH and a spot catcher.
The need is a guy who can play third (or short with power and shift Nico). Wisdom can handle first base and platoon with Mervis.
CF also isn’t a priority signing due to PCA and Davis (fingers crossed) or if Canario pushes his way to the roster, moving Happ back to center. There is no “deciding” if Happ is worth 10 million, he is definitely worth 10 million and then some. I expect Happ to be back at 25 home run power while continuing to build on his consistency he had this season. He also is a gold glove caliber left fielder.
I’d like to see the Cubs go after clevenger and reunite him with Gomes behind the plate. Given the depth of the rotation (crazy to think the cubs have rotation depth) I’d be all for Rodon. In the past his injury history would scare me away but the Cubs being able to throw out Thompson, Alzolay or Wesneski in his stead alleviates my worries.
Cubs have had a lot of success with retreads I’m the bullpen, we are pretty stacked in the pen but a guy with closing experience would be a plus.
Go for top shelf arm, pay for it. Pass on cornette clevenger. Jump on Degrom… like it or not, that’s the kind of guy you need in October. He will be pitching like the ace, many have done this, he’s an ace. They don’t grow on trees. You have to buy one eventually
I’d be more for signing Rodon than DeGrom given his injury history and contract demands. That’s just me though.
I can see Clevinger because he pitched like a TOR starter with Gomes in Cleveland and the Cubs snagged some guys from the Cleveland front office that know and have history with Clevinger. Just saying I wouldn’t hate the idea and see if their recent run at retread magic for relievers could carry over to the starting pitching side.
——and RIGHT NOW add a couple years to Stroman’s deal. He really appears to like it in Chicago and you can’t make a run for it in 2024 with it his last year. You have the financial flexibility now and need to make it known to others that you really aren’t rebuilding, you’re strengthening. Can’t risk having to replace both Hendricks and Stroman at the same time.
If Hendricks comes back as a 4/5 he fills one of the roles that Lackey/Hammel did in 16. And if he doesn’t that probably means Thompson/Steele/ Wesenski/Assad/Sampson/Kilian have filled a couple of the rotation spots.
Hendricks interests me because he was so good when Gomes was behind the plate (2.83 era) up until his season ending injury. It seems lime when Gomes was behind the plate, he was vintage, anyone else he would get shelled.
I really like Steele, Thompson and Wesneski in the rotation. Steele dominated the second half, Wesneski looks like he TOR stuff, especially that wipe out slider and Thompson just has the swagger of “you can’t hit me” and pitched that way until his arm fatigue.
Should have traded Contreras
They felt QO’ing Wilson was a better idea than what teams were offering for him.
Moolah will turn that frowny upside downy