The Rangers will be looking to add some pitching this offseason and evidently aren’t ruling out a run at the top of the market. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that the club is planning a “hard push” for left-hander Carlos Rodón.
Rodón, 30 in December, isn’t technically a free agent just yet. Prior to the 2022 campaign, he signed a two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants. However, that deal allows Rodón to opt-out after the first year of the deal, which he is widely expected to do. The only reason he had to settle for a short-term deal in the first place was because of health concerns.
Rodón only threw 42 1/3 innings combined over 2019 and 2020 due to various injuries. In 2021, he was healthy enough to get to 132 2/3 frames on the year, but seemed to run out of gas as the season went along. Due to those durability concerns, he settled for a short pact with the Giants, but one that would allow him to return to the open market as long as he pitched a minimum of 110 innings.
That plan has gone exactly as envisioned for the southpaw, as he stayed healthy all year, making 31 starts and logging a personal-best 178 innings. The added quantity didn’t subtract from the quality either. He registered a 2.88 ERA with a 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 34.1% ground ball rate. He was worth 6.2 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, the second-highest such tally among all MLB pitchers this year, trailing only Aaron Nola. Based on that excellent campaign, he’s sure to opt out of the $22.5MM remaining on his deal and return to the open market.
While that strong showing means Rodón will become a free agent, it also means he will get paid. He figures to be at the top of the free agent starting pitching market, alongside fellow opt-out holders Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander. Those other two hurlers are older than Rodón and will be limited to shorter contracts with high average annual values, something akin to the Max Scherzer contract from last year. Rodón, on the other hand, will be more analogous to Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman. Ray and Gausman were both free agents a year ago, with Ray going into his age-30 season like Rodón, while Gausman was going into his age-31 campaign. Rodón has a case that he’s as good as, or perhaps better than, both of them. Here are their platform years…
- Rodón: 178 innings, 33.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 34.1% ground ball rate, 6.5% HR/FB, 2.88 ERA, 2.83 SIERA, 2.25 FIP, 6.2 fWAR.
- Ray: 193 1/3 innings, 32.1% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, 37.2% ground ball rate, 15.9% HR/FB, 2.84 ERA, 3.21 SIERA, 3.69 FIP, 3.9 fWAR.
- Gausman: 192 innings, 29.3% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, 41.9% ground ball rate, 11.3% HR/FB, 2.81 ERA, 3.42 SIERA, 3.00 FIP, 4.8 fWAR.
Rodón issues slightly more walks but also got more strikeouts and allowed far fewer home runs. Though the ERAs are very close, advanced metrics prefer Rodón’s profile and give him the nod. Teams interested in signing Rodón won’t look just at his most recent season, of course, with his past injuries still counting for something. However, Ray and Gausman also had warts on their respective resumes, with Ray not pitching so well over 2018-2020 and Gausman struggling in 2019.
Ray was given a qualifying offer a year ago but Gausman was ineligible as he had already received one in his career. Both pitchers ended up receiving fairly similar contracts, as Ray signed with the Mariners for $115MM over five years, while Gausman signed with the Blue Jays for $110MM, also over five years. Like Ray, Rodón will receive and reject a qualifying offer, though it shouldn’t have a significant effect on his market.
For the Rangers, they spent big on free agency last year, giving huge deals to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Though those two players had fine seasons, the team still disappointed, largely due to their pitching. The team’s starters registered a 4.63 ERA, ranking them 25th out of the 30 MLB teams. Advanced metrics like FIP and SIERA weren’t much kinder, coming in at 4.42 and 4.36, respectively. That’s part of the reason why the club ended up going 68-94 on the year.
One of the few pitchers to perform well for the Rangers this year was Martín Pérez, though he’s slated for free agency. There’s apparently some mutual interest in a reunion for next year, though nothing is set in stone there yet. That leaves the Rangers with a rotation consisting of Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and a few holes. There are some internal candidates to fill those holes, though none of them had strong campaigns in 2022. Glenn Otto, Cole Ragans, Taylor Hearn and Spencer Howard each made at least eight starts for the Rangers in 2022, though all three of them posted ERAs around 5.00 or higher.
Improving the rotation for 2023 is a fairly sensible move for the Rangers as they look to put together a more competitive squad going forward. General manager Chris Young has indicated that the club will increase payroll this year, which will apparently allow them to consider spending at the very top of the free agent pitching market. The club ran out an Opening Day payroll of $142MM in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their outlay for 2023 is currently at $99MM, per Roster Resource, though that figure doesn’t include salaries for arbitration-eligible players or a $6MM option for Jose LeClerc. That LeClerc option and the arb class should get the Rangers up to around $115MM or so, leaving almost $30MM to work with before they get to their 2022 number. How much they actually have to spend will depend how much higher the payroll is expected to climb this year.
The Rangers will surely have competition for Rodón’s services, with just about every team with designs on contention looking to upgrade their starting rotation. Since he will be one of the best hurlers available, he figures to be quite popular this winter. The Giants have already expressed an interest in keeping him in San Francisco, for instance. Whether the Rangers ultimately sign him specifically or not, it is likely exciting news for fans of the club that they are willing to pair last year’s spending spree on position players by being similarly aggressive on the pitching front this year.
It’s a start
5+ years with the white sox and rodon finally figures how to pitch free agency time.
Saeger and Semien production fell off a cliff after they signed big contracts.
Semien only led in AB, PA & Games played.,
If look into the numbers you know their production wasn’t far off their marks. Semien had a terrible month and a half then hit 20+ homers from June on. Seager had the 2nd most 100+ mph outs behind Vlad. He set the lefty SS homer record and his babip was 70 points below his career average. He was very unlucky. Semien still put up a 5 war season. Not going to talk about the contracts but their production wasn’t as bad as you think.
The shift created more outs for Seager than any other player in MLB. I’m not worried about Seager at all, except his defense at SS. I wouldn’t mind him moving to 3B and try Jung at 1B.
Yeah I agree with that and I’m not either. Like said below both were mostly healthy all year with the exception of the couple aches and bruises from HBP or foul balls off a leg. Seager is probably at SS for the next 3 to 4 years then things may change. Maybe better team play all around he steps on defense and locks in. Sometimes it seemed like he kind of checked out towards the end of the year on defense.
The shift will not b gone next season, it ll just b a bit more subtle. Teams will still b shifting, it ll just b right upto the bag. I agree though I would not b worried about Seager. He’s a special talent.
Exactly, seager was hitting the ball hard and still generated the power numbers but the babip was unusually low… look for a big bounceback this year
Exit velocity?
Judge had an exit velocity of 100mph+ vs houston
Bregman had an exit velocity of 93mph vs yankees.
Guess who hit the hr?
At least he stayed healthy. I’d rather have a guy you can count on every day over slightly better production from a player that misses a lot more games. Plus, Semien was not exactly bad. In my opinion, the only 2B that had a better year was Altuve and he wasn’t even THAT much better.
Plus, Semien is up for another GG. I know 75% is popularity, but statistically, he’s a good defender at 2B despite the voting aspect.
Schoop was better defensively, but much worse with the bat. We shall see if popularity wins out
Rodon was largely wasted being on the Giants last season. He would be scary pitching on a team that’s already stacked and competitive, like the Mariners. Although I don’t see them spending more money on pitching when it’s offense that they really need.
He joined a team that won 107 games the season before… ya it was hard to expect that again but not many would have guessed a 26 win fall off. Giants have also proven to be able to help a lot of pitchers unlock stuff previous teams haven’t been able to do. Pretty sure he won’t say it was a wasted season.
Rangers going old school and just trying to spend their way to a playoff birth (basically like the Phillies this year). Anything can happen I guess
No, they are using FA to build the foundation. We have a stacked farm system.
FYI – using FA to build the foundation is spending to a playoff birth. Maybe it works for the Phillies this year, but the last decade should tell you that this is a failed plan.
You want the foundation before adding FA. Prospects have a huge bust potential, even good ones and generally take a year or two to get accustomed to MLB and really start performing. By then, your ridiculously expensive MIF is going to be further in decline.
I like the rangers, so I hope this works out for them, but this really doesn’t seem like the best way to go about building a team.
I could see why people think that because of the sheer amount they’ve spent….but they received a pretty good haul from the Yankees (and others) in trades and they have other up-and-coming prospects from their own drafts. The difference here is that when they did get a FA, they went after top-tier guys.
Bottom line is you need a mix of homegrown and FA to win, we all know that… rare to have zero home grown talent… Phillies still had Nola Hoskins Bohm Stott all contributing
Rangers seem to have a young core coming up too… we’ll see.. they also made some decent trades, at least in bringing Lowe just like Phillies brought in realmuto
Disagree. They got some prospects from the Yankees but what have they done with them?
Nothing. They clearly didn’t believe in those guys to be key contributors anyhow. Josh Smith and Duran are MIF’s. Rangers decided to spend 500 million bucks on their middle infield instead.
Glen Otto is an ok pitcher. Maybe a #5/deprh arm. This isn’t a system busting at the seams with talent. You need to develop to be good and the rangers haven’t shown that they can consistently do that
I get what you’re saying, but these guys are just breaking in. Moreover, I look at this relative to who they gave up – which is why I say they received a pretty good haul. Yankees overpaid for Gallo. Yankees aren’t even starting IKF.
Texas is the 6th ranked farm system according to mlb and have 6 top 100 prospects… they would be considered pretty well stocked w young talent
And then you have seager semien Lowe all relatively young… If they can get sp and a couple of these guys develop into something, they could be dangerous
Great article!
They really going for it.
In addition to FA, I think Texas pursues SP via trades. Burnes, Woodruff, Bieber, Merrill Kelly, Pablo Lopez, are all names that could be potential trade candidate for Texas.
Why would CLE trade Bieber after coming one game shy of ALCS and having one of brightest young cores in the game? Why would ARI trade Kelly when they have him signed dirt cheap for next 3 seasons and have a bright young core of pitchers?? Ditto Lopez…. MIL possibly could trade one of the two most likely Burnes but the cost would b pretty significant. I get wanting team to bolster rotation but let’s be realistic.
Because teams trade pitchers? The marlins have zero offense. I don’t know what Arizona is really trying to do. Gallen and Alcantara were traded, why do we think pitchers can’t be traded because their current team can use them? Yes Lopez is handy, sure the marlins would take 2 bats for him though
Gallen and Alcantara were traded as prospects not as MLB proven young controllable arms. Yes it is possible for any player to be traded, but many are unlikely. With talented young controllable pitching the cost is prohibitively expensive in the trade market. Most pitchers being traded are by teams in rebuild and in end of their contracts.
Florida has already said they want to move Lopez or a sp for offense… Brewers will prob move one of those two… I could easily see AZ selling high on Kelly
And I could just as easily see the receiving team for Kelly regretting it. Buying at the high end for most pitchers is a bad plan
I could see Texas signing Rodon, Michael Wacha and re-signing Perez as well. The Rangers owner is sick of losing and he wants to see results. Improve the pitching, get better years from Semien & Seager, get a full season out of Jung and make some bullpen improvements and this team could surprise a lot of people. Not sure they can beat Houston or Seattle but they should be able to get to .500 with the upside of a 3rd wildcard team if everything breaks right for them.
If Texas signs Rodon, I think they also will sign someone possibly like Wacha, Syndergaard, or Kluber (all three are DFW products). Don’t sleep on Chris Young finally convincing Clayton Kershaw to come home and play for Texas (they’re neighbors in Highland Park). I think Texas is gonna go HAM with a few big signings and/or a big trade, but they’ll also definitely do some value signings too.
The Rangers can spend till the cows come home but if their farm doesn’t start producing some above average players they will continue to get middling results. The Rangers should examine the recent rebuilds of the Astros and Mariners for clues on how to come out of a rebuild and efficiently utilize monetary resources…….
Semien & Seager combined for 8.7 fWAR. It’s possible they perform better than that in 2023, but expecting it doesn’t seem like a wise move.
with the end of the shift Seager will be an MVP candidate. there is very little doubt in my mind.
The shift is not ending, it will just b less dramatic. Teams will not start suddenly playing players they had been shifting straight up. They will b shifted right to the limit they are allowed under the rules.
A less dramatic shift is likely to be less effective. Gone are the days when 3B is playing in shallow RF. And I know this is purely anecdotal, but it seems like I saw innumerable LHHs ground out to fielders in that position. I wouldn’t underestimate the effect the ban will have on offenses.
With the end of the shift, Seager’s below average range and arm will be even more glaring. very little doubt in my mind.
Seager will have a big year in 2023, mark it down. He still had a 117 WRC+ and 119 ops+ in his “down” year this year… that babip is an anomaly and will even back out
Dane Dunning is a #5 end of rotation pitcher. 2 consecutive years of blah hits per inning, not good hr rate, and bb rate almost 4 per 9inn. He is what he is. Enjoy his Pat Rapp/Dave Weathers abilities while he still gets outs in the league for a few more years until his salary exceeds his usefulness, probably in about 2-3 years.
This article mentions Rodon lost the ’19 and ’20 seasons but does not mention he threw just 190 innings combined over ’17 and ’18. Taking away COVID’20, he’s only averaged around 100 IP per season over his last 5 seasons. These are not fluke ankle or knee injuries either. These are throwing shoulder, throwing elbow and bicep issues. This is a really bad 5 year contract waiting to happen. Some bigger market teams who are current contenders can take on that injury risk with a $100m to $120m contract, but the Rangers are not in that spending or contending stratosphere.
Yes. Risky investment considering injury history. I saw the “D” word mentioned … durability. Hear it gets pretty hot down there in Texas. Not much in SF. Is there such a thing as a cool/hot weather split metric? If he struggles in the heat, maybe make sure that roof is not retracted on his start days?!
These days, I’d say the roof is closed for all the games from mid-May through September. Too hot down here.
This stuff about rodon being risky??? Yeah.
The time to gamble on him was last year. I was all over him. He was so risky last year that the Giants got a bargain instead of a team having the balls to give him a long term deal—-which would’ve came at a huge premium. That was the time to sign the guy. You could’ve gotten him for probably 4/80-85. .
At this point you’re gambling at a 5/150 and that’s not appealing to me:
Could totally see Texas doing it though.
It’s Texas so they likely will. They’ll accumulate 6 guys over age 30 earning $20m – $30m per year into their upper 30’s. They won’t be able to get close to Hou or Sea in their prime and then those contracts will blow up in their faces with age and injuries.
Probably not allowable and too team friendly in the unions eyes to ever approve, but giving this guy a 15 mil baseline or 1.1 mil per start- whichever is greater in totality, would be a fun way for high risk talent to get paid.
A per start contract like that would be interesting, but likely neither side would agree to it. It’s generally either a horribly team friendly or player friendly deal, with no good in between
Not resigning Rodon and then not offering him a QO was the start of the downfall of the white sox. There collapse now is inevitable. They spent well over 9 figures giving absurd money to grandel Robert min cadi and more yet refused to resign their best player from their best season. What a terribly ran franchise !
Rodon had nothing to do with the other issues the Sox have. Period. Odds are just as good that he would have been like many of the other players on the Sox. Get their money and then its ‘ow, my , time to sit on the bench for 10-30 days….”
If the Rangers sign Rodon and resign Perez, that puts the two of them plus Gray at the top of the rotation, and they’re not that far away from having a competitive rotation.
I still believe things are going to click for Spencer Howard at some point, and he is going to be a stud.
Then we have Leiter, Rocker, and others on the way.
The future of this rotation is much better than most people think.
Gray and Rodon at the top of a rotation? You must like watching pitchers have injuries….I would never trust Rodon at the top of a rotation with his injury history… He would be a 5th guy in the rotation at best, if you get something out of him, great, and if he stinks, or goes down with multiple injuries then not much of a loss.
Gray and Rodon combo is $45m per year for 200 innings. Equivalent to the price of Ohtani. One is a good use of $45m, the other is money spent by fools.
If Jon Gray is at the top of your rotation, it’s pretty far from being competitive. Expecting 2 pitching prospects to contribute to a ML rotation is also not a great plan. Look at the attrition rate of SP prospects.
kumar rocker hasn’t even thrown a minor league Pitch yet.
Insane to count on him for anything. Jack Leiter was a below average AA pitcher last year too.
These guys have to develop: not sure TX is the right place to make that happen either
Terrible comparison. Rodon is WAY better than either of those pitchers and will get north of $150 over 5-6 years.
You would think those rednecks would have learned their lesson by signing over hyped free agents last year
Boy I’m sorry I really like where and what Texas is going as a team and organization. They have some very nice young pitchers coming. They got a sneaky good arm from Milwaukee in Kelly too. They are just updating every aspects the right way. They got a plan and going with it. What I like is that even though they switched FO and manager they aren’t doing a teardown just some tweaking. Daniels did some good things but hopefully Young can get them across the finish line. Bochy a great pick smart but also knows they gotta put the work in
Look at how “successful” the signings of Ray and Gausman have been. Both pitched so-so this year and flamed out in the playoffs, and they were with better teams than the Rangers. Rodon has quite a bit more injury history. I guess if the Rangers are desperately interested in gambling they can, but they are not 1 or 2 big name pitchers away from contending. They are 8-10 pitchers away and a few more position players away. They should focus on getting their best minor leaguers to perform at the major league level first, before signing big names.
stroh;
I keep writing it over an over…..
If an organization cannot develop it’s own pitchers, it won’t be able to recalibrate any pitchers they buy in free agency that go south a bit and need adjustments. That sort of thing happens to just about all MLB pitchers. Bullpen pitchers are the most volatile component on MLB teams. Starting pitchers behind them.
There’s no team I’m aware of that bought a superior pitching staff….and overpaying for some pitchers means they have to cut corners elsewhere.
“They are 8-10 pitchers away and a few more position players away. They should focus on getting their best minor leaguers to perform at the major league level first, before signing big names.”
B I N G O
What the Rangers are doing is like White Sox “Rebuild” [sic] – Part II.
Last year the Rangers team payroll was about $135m.
This year they’re looking at the following 5 players:
Corey Seager – $35.5m
Marcus Semien – $26m
Jon Gray – $15m
Martín Pérez – $8m (probably a low estimate)
hopefully:
Carlos Rodón – $30m (probably a low estimate)
That brings them up to $114.5. Assuming they increase team payroll by a huge 20%, the 2023 team payroll will be: $162m.
That would leave $47.5 in their 2023 budget. This averages out to a salary of $2.26m for the remaining 21 players.
You’re also assuming that all 5 players above will be healthy most of the season and have good years.
I don’t know….this is stuff desperate teams do. They surely can improve. But lets just say that Astros are in their division (and the Mariners). FYI – This years Astros payroll was $171.6m, and look how loaded they are with players.
This is why I love following smart teams that develop their own: Rays, Brewers, Orioles, Guardians…and Astros.
Perez, Gray, Rodon and Dunning. With Leiter and Rockar on the way. That’s a big league rotation, something the rangers didn’t have in 2022
Maybe the 3rd best in their division.
Sounds like someone wants to California Their Texas.
DONT California my Texas
Nice one/ two punch with Rondon and Perez but why stop there? Make a splash with Kershaw or fill out the rotation with a few solid 2/3 starters. Quintana, Taillon, and Eovaldi all fit
Whatever team signs Rodon will be entering into a very bad contract. They will be absolutely lucky if Rodon pitches one year as good or better than he did in 2022. As for the rest, be ready for injuries and poor performance.
Agreed, Why any team would make the huge mistake of overpaying a guy like Rodon is beyond me. The guy is walking time bomb with his arm and shoulder. One good season (in what is a pitchers ballpark if Im not mistaken) does not erase his injury history.
I actually used to think he was gonna turn into a pretty good pitcher, and it kinda looks like he has, but he’s just so unreliable. I also believe the White Sox rushed him to the big leagues. He looked like a good draft pick. And yeah, I checked his home/splits knowing that Giants play in a pitchers park. His ERA is under 2 in SF, and almost at 4 on the road. The odd part is that all his other stats look very evenly split that it’s kinda hard to understand, but I think he must’ve had 2 or 3 really bad road starts that might be tipping his ERA that high. What I wonder is are those the outliers or are some of his best road starts the outlier. Either way, as a cubs fan I certainly hope they don’t go down that path.
Rangers should give Perez a QO and look to lock him up rather than Rodon.
Rodon will also get a QO and will cost a draft pick; Perez will be cheaper and no draft pick loss. With the savings the Rangers can look for a #3 or 4 starter like Smyly and/or Cueto. Also, Kershaw will be available and may take the hometown discount
I get that he’s talented and all pitchers have injury concerns, but I’d be really scared to sign him for more than 3 years (which won’t get it done).
no surprises if zaidi locks rodon into a long term contract before he hits the open market
Yeah, I’d be really wary of signing Rodon to a mukti-year deal. Sure, he’s been healthy but as soon as he gets his 4-5 year commitment you watch – suddenly he will get hurt.
I’d love for Farhan to resign Rodon, but I honestly don’t see it happening. Many clubs will be interested in him this off season, I hope I’m wrong though. Rodon was a beast this year. He deserves to be on a contender.
A lot of guys have durability issues until they don’t. Some guys pitch/play through nagging injuries that won’t seem to go away, then finally get healthy. Yes, Rodon has a concerning injury history, but he also made 31 starts in 2022, and stayed healthy all year. Plus, I remember a lot of comments calling the Giants foolish for signing him last season.
He’ll be entering his age 30 season. If he were 2-3 years older I’d want nothing to do with a deal of any length. He’ll have a physical before any team signs him to something like a 5 year deal, and, I’d trust the opinion of the doctors over any of us fans just guessing in the comments.
So 6 years of history doesn’t mean anything to you? He kept it together for a whopping 170 IP in a contract year and you’re good to go?
I admitted that he has a concerning injury history. The implication that it needs to be factored in. But he wouldn’t be the first guy to finally get healthy and be productive.
All FAs are a gamble, and sometimes guys who’ve been healthy their whole career, wind up getting injured. Nothing is guaranteed, neither health, nor injury.