The average batting line for first basemen in 2022 was .246/.320/.410, wRC+ of 107. For the Cubs, they used various players at the cold corner for a combined slash line of .232/.304/.348, wRC+ of 86, that latter stat being 24th out of the 30 MLB teams. Given that disparity, the Cubs will undoubtedly be looking for better production in 2023. They might have an in-house solution in Matt Mervis, though they will also be looking for external upgrades this winter. “He’s very much in our plans,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said about Mervis, per Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. “But I think we’re also going to be active in exploring alternatives.”
Mervis has really exploded onto the scene in 2022. As mentioned in the piece linked above, he didn’t get drafted in either 2019 or 2020, eventually signing with the Cubs as an undrafted free agent. He played 72 minor league games in 2021, hitting at a below-average level.
2022 has been a completely different story, however. He began the season in High-A and completely mashed, producing a batting line of .350/.389/.650, wRC+ of 189. He got bumped to Double-A and hit .300/.370/.596 for a wRC+ of 148. After moving to Triple-A, his line was .297/.383/.593, 152 wRC+. Incredibly, his walk rate improved from 4.6% to 8.7% to 10.4% as he moved up the ladder, while his strikeout rate fell from 24.1% to 20% to 14.6%. The Cubs decided to keep the good times rolling by sending him to the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .262/.324/.590 in 17 games.
It’s not just the bat that has the Cubs excited either. “He’s more athletic than people think,” Cubs vice president of player development Jared Banner said. “He knows his way around the bag at first base. He’s a nice, big target, and he actually grades out really well defensively. No concerns there.”
Despite that tremendous breakout season, it stands to reason that the Cubs don’t want to simply hand over the starting job to Mervis just based on that. “We’re thrilled with what he’s doing,” Hoyer said. “We know he’s a big part of where we’re going. But at the same time, we have to be cognizant of having real depth. Injuries and other things happen.”
With Mervis seemingly on the cusp of reaching the majors but not a guarantee to immediately succeed, it’s likely that the club will look for a short-term addition to first base. That way, should Mervis continue charging forward, he wouldn’t be blocked from securing the full-time job. The Cubs don’t really have a player locked into the designated hitter mix, so it’s possible that Mervis could co-exist on the roster with someone who will require a long-term deal like, say, Josh Bell. However, teams generally don’t like clogging up the DH spot and prefer to rotate players through there. That’s especially true of a team like the Cubs that’s still trying to give at-bats to young players and evaluate their capabilities against major league pitching. That being said, with no real lock for first or DH, the Cubs are one of the teams best suited to fit a bat-first player into their lineup.
MLBTR’s Top 50 had Josh Bell as the top available first baseman, predicted a contract of four years and $64MM, or $16MM per year. However, Jose Abreu was actually pegged for a higher contract in terms of average annual value: $40MM over two years. Abreu has a longer and more impressive track record but he’s more than five years older than Bell, hence the disparity. The White Sox seem set to let Abreu walk and replace him with Andrew Vaughn at first, and the Cubs have been reported to be interested in facilitating a crosstown move. Brandon Drury would be a sensible fit, if the Cubs are content with moving him to second or third base in the event Mervis takes over at first.
If the Cubs opt for a more short-term solution, players that can likely be had on one-year deals include Brandon Belt, Matt Carpenter, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel or Wil Myers. There’s also the trade market, which could feature bats like Rowdy Tellez or Eric Hosmer. Tellez still has two seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected for a $5.3MM salary this year by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Hosmer still has three years left on his deal but the Padres agreed to pay down everything but the league minimum when trading him to the Red Sox.
There are many different options available to the club and how they proceed will depend on how much faith they have in Mervis and how much they want to spend. Last year, the Cubs gave out a whole bunch of one-year deals to veterans, with Seiya Suzuki’s five years and Marcus Stroman’s three years (with an opt-out after two) the only multi-year deals.
Matt Mervis looks ready!
I agree Manny, even as a Pirates fan.
Fabulous UFA story. I’m pulling for him. Looking forward to following his ST campaign. And I’m not a Cubs fan. Hope he heads north.
He was far from a UFA. He would of absolutely been drafted in a normal year. He could hit .500 in Spring Training and he’ll still go back to Iowa until they bring him up in May or whatever the date is they get an extra arbitration year. Think Kris Bryant. It wasn’t his fault that he came out of college during a draft shortened pandemic 5 round draft. The Cubs were lucky to get him. The Cubs will shop for a 1B in FA but at what end? The high end, Or tha low end?
The new CBA didn’t completely close the service time loop holes, although it does put counter incentives in place.
The reasoning that he may not be ready is true for every minor leaguer, even a 1/1 like Torkelson. Won’t ever know if you don’t play them.
Cubs will sign a guy. They’ll be to Mervis not too
Well played.
I agree despite getting the “to” and “too” rules backwards.
I’m roll the dice on Bellinger considering he can play both 1st base as well as CF. Both are holes that needs to be filled in the Cubs lineup. Since Bellinger only wants a one year deal, the Cubs have the payroll flexibility to outbid most/all on a one year deal.
I sort of like that idea. Maybe a change of scenery would do Bellinger good.
Knowing Boras, he wants a 2 year deal with an opt out, probably for at least 10 mil each year, just like JBJ. And all 30 teams would be wise to look at it as a “fool-me-0nce” situation
“Cody Bellinger is a free agent at 27, an ideal age for a player to hit the open market. But his agent, Scott Boras, sounds as if he wants Bellinger to sign only a one-year deal. ‘I’ve already been offered multi-years,” Boras said Sunday, two days after the Dodgers declined to tender Bellinger a contract for 2023. “Most likely, because of his age, we don’t want a multi-year.’”
Both Boras and Bellinger max out their $$$$ by taking a 1 year / high AAV $ contract now, Bellinger making a big comeback performance wise, then parlaying that into a multi-year / high AAV $ contract. Of course the risk is that Bellinger goes out and still sucks in ’23. Right now, as soon as a team goes more than one year, that AAV is coming down and the team options are going in.
He’s going to want the bulk of his games at CF to retain value. I think the Cubs would be a good fit.
If they don’t mind a poor defender, Luke Voit is looking for work and could serve as a backup if Mervis flounders. But I’m generally in favor of giving the young guy his shot instead of “protecting his development” by stashing him in the minors.
Fink, Voight + Vogelbach arm wrestling contest, who ya got?
Vogelbach has 58 pounds on Voit, but since they’d be sitting down, I’d go with Voit, who famously bench pressed 135 lbs with one arm.
I think the O’ Neil kid in St Louis give ‘em a battle
Could be, Ed. Another might be Yandy Diaz of the Rays.
I say Trout puts up a mighty battle
Yeah. Lol Yandy has a set of guns. But seriously, arm wresting , of course as much as strength matters , very technical sport. You’d be surprised how much technique is involved.
I agree, Ed. In fact, I was gonna say that I’ve seen some much bigger guys struggle to defeat little guys. It’s not all about bulky biceps.
Back in the day the uni’s showed off the arms. Not so much anymore.
You see guys , look like average guys, after games interviewing, just a T on , they’re all RIPPED , most anyways.
This generation of athletes are very fit.
crazybulk.com/blogs/news/10-most-jacked-baseball-p…
Wowww Puig is jacked
He’ll be a star in the prison yard.
007, he’ll come out of the slam twice as big as in that pic.
Kapler. The old guy would grind them all down.
I actually like the Drury idea. You could move him around, similar to Wisdom. He had a decent year last year. I think Abreu goes to contender like Astros or Padres. Not sure multi year deal for Bell makes since.
I agree. He bats right and could platoon with Mervis and he could play third as well, which is another hole they have to fill. (Wisdom is not the answer there)
Based on Drury’s career stats, Wisdom would be the much safer bet.
Drury was much better than Wisdom last year. They could keep both. They can both move around.
Not sure that would be such a wise move
Here’s a silly question, if a guy is a career .252/.302/.434 hitter, then in 92 games hits .275/.335/.520 and then gets traded and posts a .238/.290/.435 triple slash… which stands out as the fluke?
Drury is trash and anyone who signs him based on last season will regret it. Dudes not Daniel Murphy.
I’ll stick with Wisdom who pretty much seems like a lock for 25 doubles, 25 home runs and can bounce all over the corners
Also, I’m 92 games in 2021 Schwindel was better than Rizzo…
And whiff 250 times.
It’s the Ks that concern me.
In roughly the same amount of games, Wisdom struck out 57 more times… MLBTR predicts Drury sign for 2/18 or about 150,000 more for each strike out.
I have less concerns about Wisdoms strike outs than I do spending 8 million a season (10 times Wisdoms salary) on a guy who has a worse triple slash line.
Also, platooning Mervis for Drury for 8 million? Sure Drury had a good year last year against lefties but what about his career… hummmm
I don’t want Drury either. That would be shopping at the bottom end of the pool. I’ve already said I’d want either Abreu or Mancini as they can actually hit the ball. I say get Bellinger and then worry about the rest as he could play 1st or CF until they bring up Mervis, because I doubt he rolls north with the Cubs. I’ve already said I think Abreu would be a great compliment to the team, RH hitting 1B or DH. He should be the priority with Correa and Bellinger makes them way better IMO.
Cubs FA priorities in order of importance IMO:
1. Correa
2. Bellinger
3. Abreu
4. Senga
5. Relievers( Closer)
Obviously probably won’t get them all but the first 2 are a must I think And they will get some relievers.
Drury might take a 2 yr deal. He’s not the long term answer anywhere they have holes, but doesn’t strike out like Wisdom and is more defensively flexible. Sure Abreu could be great but only plays 1b.
I couldn’t agree more… Correa being 1-a and Bogaerts being 1-b.
I would tab Abreu/JD Martinez as 3-a and 3-b…
I think with the above mentioned moves, you’re looking about 80 million in roster additions which leaves us 9 million under for mid season improvements and approx. 60 million coming off the books the following season.
I don’t want Drury, he’s going to get a multi year deal and I don’t think he sustains his success.
Agree and Cubs need LH bats, not more RHs- especially in the INF.
You would platoon him with the LH Mervis. He can also play 3rd, 2nd,corner outfield. It wouldn’t really makes sense to have 2 left handed hitting 1b.
Mervis doesn‘t need to platoon.
Cubs’ first base plans include dinner and movie and seeing where the night takes them.
Unless it’s for a solid position player that has a history of playing consistently and staying healthy, I doubt that at this point the Cubs should be committing themselves to any sort of long-term deal.
They need to continue their building of a pitching factory and give their young position players a chance to grow. They’re not going to the WS in 2023. There are free agents available every year – they’ll be there when the Cubs know what they need to become major contenders….and if they develop a surplus of position players and pitchers they can always trade for a quality player.
Looks like Mervis has been playing well. The underlying numbers are very good. My biggest red flag is that he hasn’t been at any level long enough for the pitchers to adjust to him.
I’m curious if he is a guy who is just crushing minor league pitchers still developing below average pitches or if he’s teeing off on the more polished pitchers.
As far as the “short term” solutions, my top pick would be Abreu but would be fine with Wisdom holding it down to start the season and then move to a utility role if the Cubs were able to snag JD Martinez to DH.
I would love to see the Cubs snag two big bats, Abreu or Martinez, Correa or Bogaerts, with Bellinger being a low risk/high reward guy, Mervis as an exciting young prospect that hopefully continues as forces his way on the active roster.
Having: Horner, Happ, Abreu, Correa, Suzuki, Bellinger, Wisdom, Mervis, Gomes is actually a pretty exciting line up and it’s a sick defense.
He’s still only 24, so I’d leave him in AAA for a few months next year and hope that he leaves the Cubs with no choice but to bring him up.
You leave him in AAA as long as he needs. If he comes out and destroys spring training pitching, he doesn’t need to go to AAA. If he struggles, send him to AAA to work on his game but it appears he worked on his game at every level and deserves a real look in the spring. Thank god the nl adopted the DH because it leaves us with options for a change.
Mervis a real Cinderfella
Rhys Hoskins for the Cubs?
Hoskins wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Cubs if the Phillies decide to move him.
I personally think it would be wise for the Cubs to deal Davis, not a scout by any means but he is a sky high bust risk with his ridiculous strike out percentage. Not saying we move him for Hoskins by any means but I think a package maybe for a young pitcher makes sense.
Davis played like 3 AFL games after having surgery on his back and got shut down. Can’t imagine a team would see him as a headliner for a trade right now and the Cubs would be selling really low on him.
Well I said the same thing about trading Marquez and how did that work out? Better to trade a guy while his value is low vs trading him while his value is no.
Davis isn’t in the outfield I envision (PCA, Canario and Alcantara)
Voit makes a lot of sense. He can hold down 1B affordably until Mervis is truly ready to take over the position, and then Voit slides to DH.
I think Brandon Belt makes sense for the Cubs on a two year deal.. If he is healthy and productive they can trade him at the deadline and give more playing time to Mervis. If he gets hurt, they have a built in replacement ready to go. Not much risk if the price is right.
Agreed. I would have Abreu one, Belt two and Bell not at all.
Belt’s knees are shot – he admitted that. He’ll be on the IL more than he’s not.
Until the Cubs show they want to stop trying to deceive the fans and really want to win Jed Hoyer’s word means nothing.
Cubs grabbed one of the best free agent position players last year and one of the best pitchers but that isn’t good enough for Cub fans. They want him to throw money blindly, putting bandaids on atrial bleeds. Hoyer is trying to build a team the right way, if he doesn’t do anything this year, complain, until then take your blinders off and look at the team realistically, they were not good and their foundation was poor.
The right way lol Jed also told us this isn’t a rebuild and it clear was. Jed, the front office and ownership has lost all credibility.
So much this.
La Tortuga? Willians Astudillo is the slappy first base depth hero Wrigley needs. Maybe the new shift rules help his high contact, low K, low power ways. Basepaths a little shorter. Small ball pinch hitting weapon perhaps. Fans could not help but love him.
Should have kept Rizz
Cubs tried to extend him and he rejected their offer (twice actually). Due to this, trading him was the right move.
The Cubs actually offered Rizzo more money than he signed for with the Yankees and he turned it down and said he was offended. So another myth shattered.
Offering 3M more a year than the last offer was the right move.
One possibility the article does not address would be for the Cubs to sign one of the elite shortstops, move Hoerner to 3B (or, if they sign Bogaerts, put him at 3B), and platoon Wisdom with Mervis at 1B. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Patrick Wisdom is a great everyday option if Mervis doesn’t pan out, but you could do worse, particularly with a team that’s still at least a year away from serious contention. It’s a plan that would fit the m.o. of this front office better than spending big for Abreu or Bell.
Sign Belt, Carpenter, or Carlos Santana to hold the job down for a few weeks and then bring Mervis up. It makes zero sense to sign Bell to a multi-year deal with a near MLB ready player coming very quickly, even with the DH unless it’s implied that said player will be DH’ing over the long term
Ian Happ for Josh Naylor.
Who says no?
The Guardians
The Cubs say no… A gold glover who can move around the diamond for a lack luster defender and an okay bat that isn’t an improvement.
CLE SHOULD say yes all day long since Happ is a switch hitter.
We all know what the Cubs are going to do. They’re going to sign a FA for 1B and then keep Mervis down until he passes his sell by date and they gain an extra arbitration year because that’s who they are and that’s what they’ve ALWAYS done. The only question is will they shop at the top end of the pool or the bottom end. Stay Tuned.
Call up jake slaugther. Its the ultimate baseball name!
Dom Smith?