Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 12 years.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
The service time figures, listed in parentheses below, are official. However, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.
Onto the numbers…
Angels (7)
- Griffin Canning (3.075): $1.1MM
- Luis Rengifo (3.043): $2.4MM
- Jaime Barria (3.035): $1.2MM
- Chad Wallach (3.030): $800K
- Jared Walsh (3.010): $2.7MM
- Taylor Ward (2.164): $2.9MM
- Patrick Sandoval (2.149): $2.8MM
Astros (9)
- Phil Maton (5.047): $2.5MM
- Ryne Stanek (5.038): $3.1MM
- Framber Valdez (3.163): $7.4MM
- Josh James (3.110): $800K
- Kyle Tucker (3.079): $5.6MM
- Jose Urquidy (3.049): $3.2MM
- Cristian Javier (3.000): $3.3MM
- Blake Taylor (3.000): $800K
- Mauricio Dubon (2.162): $1.2MM
Athletics (6)
- Tony Kemp (5.098): $3.9MM
- Deolis Guerra (4.071): $900K
- Austin Pruitt (4.055): $1.2MM
- Ramon Laureano (3.165): $3.6MM
- Sean Murphy (3.029): $3.5MM
- Paul Blackburn (3.018): $1.9MM
Blue Jays (13)
- Teoscar Hernandez (5.097): $14.1MM
- Raimel Tapia (5.020): $5.2MM
- Adam Cimber (4.156): $3.2MM
- Trevor Richards (4.084): $1.5MM
- Bradley Zimmer (4.077): $1.3MM
- Danny Jansen (4.050): $3.7MM
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3.157): $14.8MM
- Tim Mayza (3.156): $1.9MM
- Cavan Biggio (3.129): $2.6MM
- Trent Thornton (3.073): $1.1MM
- Bo Bichette (3.063): $6.1MM
- Jordan Romano (3.051): $4.4MM
- Santiago Espinal (2.149): $2.1MM
Braves (6)
- Guillermo Heredia (5.112): $1.1MM
- A.J. Minter (4.154): $5MM
- Max Fried (4.148): $12.2MM
- Mike Soroka (4.122): $2.8MM
- Tyler Matzek (4.019): $1.8MM
- Silvino Bracho (3.099): $900K
Brewers (18)
- Hunter Renfroe (5.165): $11.2MM
- Brent Suter (5.161): $3.1MM
- Victor Caratini (5.051): $2.8MM
- Luis Perdomo (5.034): $1MM
- Brandon Woodruff (4.161): $11MM
- Matt Bush (4.132): $2MM
- Willy Adames (4.105): $9.2MM
- Trevor Gott (4.057): $1.4MM
- Corbin Burnes (4.049): $11.4MM
- Eric Lauer (4.033): $5.2MM
- Jandel Gustave (4.027): $900K
- Adrian Houser (4.010): $3.6MM
- Rowdy Tellez (4.004): $5.3MM
- Luis Urias (3.120): $4.3MM
- Hoby Milner (3.068): $1.1MM
- Devin Williams (3.056): $3.2MM
- Mike Brosseau (3.031): $1.2MM
- Keston Hiura (3.009): $2MM
Cardinals (11)
- Jordan Montgomery (5.153): $10.1MM
- Chris Stratton (5.100): $3.5MM
- Alex Reyes (5.056): $2.85MM
- Jack Flaherty (5.006): $5.1MM
- Jordan Hicks (5.000): $1.6MM
- Dakota Hudson (4.062): $2.7MM
- Tyler O’Neill (4.059): $5.1MM
- Tommy Edman (3.114): $4.3MM
- Ryan Helsley (3.105): $2.4MM
- Andrew Knizner (3.021): $1MM
- Genesis Cabrera (3.011): $1.2MM
Cubs (10)
- Ian Happ (5.036): $10.6MM
- Steven Brault (4.167): $1.7MM
- Franmil Reyes (4.115): $6MM
- Rowan Wick (3.114): $1.5MM
- Alec Mills (3.097): $800K
- Brad Wieck (3.085): $800K
- Nico Hoerner (3.014): $2.2MM
- Codi Heuer (3.000): $800K
- Nick Madrigal (2.164): $1.1MM
- Rafael Ortega (2.145): $1.7MM
Diamondbacks (9)
- Caleb Smith (5.077): $2.7MM
- Keynan Middleton (5.023): $1.1MM
- Carson Kelly (4.161): $4.1MM
- Christian Walker (4.124): $7.3MM
- Reyes Moronta (4.111): $2MM
- Jordan Luplow (4.108): $2MM
- Zac Gallen (3.100): $4.5MM
- Josh Rojas (2.152): $2.4MM
- Daulton Varsho (2.128): $2.8MM
Dodgers (12)
- Cody Bellinger (5.160): $18.1MM
- Julio Urias (5.117): $13.7MM
- Walker Buehler (4.168): $8.1MM
- Caleb Ferguson (4.088): $1.1MM
- Yency Almonte (3.143): $1MM
- Will Smith (3.090): $5.2MM
- Dustin May (3.059): $1.4MM
- Trayce Thompson (3.010): $1.7MM
- Edwin Rios (3.003): $1.4MM
- Brusdar Graterol (2.167): $1.2MM
- Tony Gonsolin (2.152): $3.5MM
- Evan Phillips (2.136): $1.4MM
Giants (13)
- Jarlin Garcia (5.114): $2.4MM
- Scott Alexander (5.080): $1.1MM
- John Brebbia (5.078): $1.9MM
- Jakob Junis (5.002): $3.3MM
- Austin Slater (4.147): $2.7MM
- J.D. Davis (4.137): $3.8MM
- Jharel Cotton (3.162): $1.1MM
- Mike Yastrzemski (3.128): $5.7MM
- Zack Littell (3.067): $900K
- Logan Webb (3.044): $4.8MM
- LaMonte Wade Jr. (3.035): $1.4MM
- Tyler Rogers (3.034): $1.8MM
- Thairo Estrada (2.169): $2.4MM
Guardians (9)
- Luke Maile (5.148): $1.3MM
- Amed Rosario (5.062): $9MM
- Shane Bieber (4.097): $10.7MM
- Anthony Gose (3.139): $800K
- Cal Quantrill (3.132): $6MM
- Josh Naylor (3.1287): $3.5MM
- Zach Plesac (3.086): $2.9MM
- Aaron Civale (3.058): $2.2MM
- James Karinchak (2.169): $1.4MM
Marlins (12)
- Joey Wendle (5.088): $5.4MM (Marlins hold a $6.3MM mutual option and $75K buyout that will first need to be dealt with)
- Garrett Cooper (5.053): $4.1MM
- Dylan Floro (5.053): $4.2MM
- Brian Anderson (5.031): $5.2MM
- Jacob Stallings (4.149): $3.3MM
- Pablo Lopez (4.093): $5.6MM
- Tanner Scott (4.059): $2.7MM
- Elieser Hernandez (4.051): $1.8MM
- Jon Berti (3.168): $2.4MM
- Cole Sulser (3.028): $1MM
- Jeff Brigham (3.010): $800K
- Jesus Luzardo (2.165): $2MM
Mariners (11)
- Tom Murphy (5.092): $1.9MM
- Diego Castillo (4.118): $2.9MM
- Paul Sewald (4.072): $3.6MM
- Ryan Borucki (4.066): $1.1MM
- Casey Sadler (4.035): $1.025MM
- Dylan Moore (4.000): $2MM
- Erik Swanson (3.096): $1.4MM
- Luis Torrens (3.091): $1.2MM
- Ty France (3.089): $4.7MM
- Abraham Toro (2.149): $1.4MM
- Kyle Lewis (2.146): $1.2MM
Mets (8)
- Daniel Vogelbach (4.138): $2.9MM (Mets can bypass arbitration by exercising a $1.5MM club option)
- Tomas Nido (4.089): $1.6MM
- Dominic Smith (4.081): $4MM
- Jeff McNeil (4.069): $6.2MM
- Joey Lucchesi (4.067): $1.15MM
- Drew Smith (4.034): $1.2MM
- Pete Alonso (4.000): $15.9MM
- Luis Guillorme (3.167): $1.5MM
Nationals (10)
- Carl Edwards Jr. (5.169): $1.6MM
- Luke Voit (4.169): $8.2MM
- Erick Fedde (4.099): $3.6MM
- Victor Robles (4.033): $2.5MM
- Tanner Rainey (3.127): $1.5MM
- Hunter Harvey (3.047): $1MM
- Victor Arano (3.022): $1MM
- Lane Thomas (3.014): $2.1MM
- Ildemaro Vargas (3.007): $1.1MM
- Kyle Finnegan (3.000): $2MM
Orioles (7)
- Anthony Santander (4.162): $7.5MM
- Cam Gallagher (4.073): $1MM
- Austin Voth (3.127): $2MM
- Cedric Mullins (3.078): $4.4MM
- Austin Hays (3.057): $3.1MM
- Dillon Tate (3.048): $1.5MM
- Jorge Mateo (3.000): $1.8MM
Padres (10)
- Josh Hader (5.115): $13.6MM
- Jorge Alfaro (5.083): $3.6MM
- Juan Soto (4.134): $21.5MM
- Tim Hill (4.112): $1.7MM
- Austin Adams (4.015): $1MM
- Jose Castillo (3.125): $900K
- Austin Nola (3.106): $2.2MM
- Trent Grisham (3.060): $2.6MM
- Adrian Morejon (3.013): $800K
- Jake Cronenworth (3.000): $4.4MM
Phillies (7)
- Jose Alvarado (5.082): $3.2MM
- Rhys Hoskins (5.053): $12.6MM
- Seranthony Dominguez (4.131): $2MM
- Ranger Suarez (3.112): $3.5MM
- Sam Coonrod (3.078): $800K
- Yairo Munoz (3.003): $1MM
- Edmundo Sosa (2.140): $1MM
Pirates (6)
- Robert Stephenson (5.049): $1.9MM
- Kevin Newman (4.046): $2.8MM
- Miguel Andujar (4.002): $1.7MM
- Duane Underwood Jr. (3.044): $1MM
- Mitch Keller (3.026): $2.4MM
- JT Brubaker (3.000): $2MM
Rangers (6)
- Mitch Garver (5.045): $4.2MM
- Brett Martin (3.151): $1.5MM
- Taylor Hearn (3.125): $1.7MM
- Dennis Santana (3.095): $1.1MM
- Jonathan Hernandez (3.041): $1MM
- Nathaniel Lowe (2.145): $4.3MM
Rays (19)
- Ji-Man Choi (5.076): $4.5MM
- Yonny Chirinos (4.125): $1.6MM
- Yandy Diaz (4.122): $5.4MM
- Ryan Yarbrough (4.117): $4.2MM
- Shawn Armstrong (4.113): $1.3MM
- Jalen Beeks (4.070): $1.2MM
- Andrew Kittredge (4.070): $2MM
- Francisco Mejia (4.062): $2.2MM
- Jeffrey Springs (4.055): $3MM
- Roman Quinn (4.035): $900K
- Nick Anderson (3.153): $845K
- Harold Ramirez (3.124): $2.1MM
- Colin Poche (3.109): $1.7MM
- JT Chargois (3.101): $1MM
- Pete Fairbanks (3.057): $1.5MM
- Christian Bethancourt (3.038): $1.6MM
- Ryan Thompson (3.000): $1.1MM
- Jason Adam (2.132): $1.9MM
- Randy Arozarena (2.129): $4MM
Red Sox (11)
- Ryan Brasier (5.109): $2.3MM
- Rafael Devers (5.070): $16.9MM
- Abraham Almonte (5.012): $900K
- Nick Pivetta (4.166): $5.9MM
- Franchy Cordero (4.092): $1.5MM
- Alex Verdugo (4.078): $6.9MM
- Rob Refsnyder (4.048): $1.6MM
- Christian Arroyo (4.036): $2.2MM
- Josh Taylor (3.121): $1.1MM
- Reese McGuire (3.027): $1.3MM
- Yu Chang (3.007): $900K
Reds (11)
- Buck Farmer (5.140): $1.4MM
- Luis Cessa (5.131): $2.6MM
- Kyle Farmer (4.129): $5.9MM
- Jeff Hoffman (4.105): $1.2MM
- Lucas Sims (4.014): $1.3MM
- Nick Senzel (3.150): $2.2MM
- Derek Law (3.081): $900K
- Aramis Garcia (3.036): $800K
- Justin Dunn (3.016): $1.1MM
- Aristides Aquino (3.003): $1.6MM
- Tejay Antone (3.000): $800K
Rockies (6)
- Dinelson Lamet (5.070): $4.8MM
- Garrett Hampson (4.030): $2.1MM
- Tyler Kinley (4.014): $1.3MM
- Austin Gomber (3.111): $1.8MM
- Brendan Rodgers (3.075): $2.7MM
- Ty Blach (3.007): $800K
Royals (11)
- Luke Weaver (5.112): $3MM
- Amir Garrett (5.099): $2.6MM
- Adalberto Mondesi (5.088): $3MM
- Brad Keller (5.000): $7MM
- Scott Barlow (4.030): $4.9MM
- Ryan O’Hearn (4.002): $1.5MM
- Nicky Lopez (3.139): $3.4MM
- Taylor Clarke (3.120): $1.5MM
- Josh Staumont (3.072): $1MM
- Brady Singer (2.156): $2.9MM
- Kris Bubic (2.135): $1.8MM
Tigers (12)
- Drew Hutchison (5.097): $1.8MM
- Joe Jimenez (5.061): $2.6MM
- Jeimer Candelario (5.038): $7MM
- Jose Cisnero (5.020): $2.2MM
- Victor Reyes (4.075): $2.2MM
- Austin Meadows (4.074): $4MM
- Harold Castro (3.141): $2.6MM
- Gregory Soto (3.102): $3.1MM
- Tyler Alexander (3.058): $1.6MM
- Willi Castro (3.017): $1.7MM
- Rony Garcia (2.138): $1MM
- Kyle Funkhouser (2.133): $800K
Twins (12)
- Gio Urshela (5.127): $9.2MM
- Emilio Pagan (5.091): $3.7MM
- Tyler Mahle (5.018): $7.2MM
- Caleb Thielbar (4.131): $2.4MM
- Jorge Lopez (4.102): $3.7MM
- Danny Coulombe (4.008): $800K
- Chris Paddack (4.000): $2.4MM
- Jake Cave (3.137): $1.2MM
- Luis Arraez (3.121): $5MM
- Cody Stashak (3.064): $800K
- Jorge Alcala (3.014): $800K
- Kyle Garlick (2.163): $1.1MM
White Sox (8)
- Lucas Giolito (5.080): $10.8MM
- Adam Engel (5.058): $2.3MM
- Kyle Crick (5.027): $1.5MM
- Reynaldo Lopez (5.004): $3.3MM
- Dylan Cease (3.089): $5.3MM
- Jose Ruiz (3.048): $1MM
- Michael Kopech (3.041): $2.2MM
- Danny Mendick (2.168): $1MM
Yankees (14)
- Wandy Peralta (5.168): $3.1MM
- Frankie Montas (5.015): $7.7MM
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (5.000): $6.5MM
- Lou Trivino (4.163): $4.2MM
- Gleyber Torres (4.162): $9.8MM
- Clay Holmes (4.031): $2.9MM
- Jonathan Loaisiga (4.022): $2.1MM
- Domingo German (4.017): $2.6MM
- Lucas Luetge (4.015): $1.7MM
- Kyle Higashioka (4.005): $1.7MM
- Tim Locastro (3.122): $1.2MM
- Nestor Cortes (3.094): $3.5MM
- Jose Trevino (3.063): $2MM
- Michael King (3.004): $1.2MM
Brewers have 18 and Rays have 19 (!). Wonder what the record is
And almost $80 million estimated for Brewers. Gotta be quite a few non-tenders in that list.
Bj – …maybe non-tenders or maybe a lot of arbitration eligible players in trades for minor leaguers or pre-arbitration players. It would be fun to see a more robust trade market this offseason.
It should definitely make for an interesting offseason.
My thinking, as well. Brewers and Rays have huge arb classes but there are a lot of other teams with 10-12 guys as well.
Might be a nice trade market this year.
But a lot of locks:
Burnes $11.4 million or trade
Woodruff $11 million or trade
Lauer $5.2 million or trade
Williams $3.2 million
Adames $9.2 million
Tellez $5.3 million
Hiura $2.0 million
Urias $4.3 million
Renfroe $11.2 million
Total. Nine players for $70.8 million
Most people see Renfroe as a non-tender but I think that Brewers need him one more year before going to Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and eventually Jackson Chourio.
Woodruff or Burnes could be on the move. That would energize the pitching market and bring back a nice haul for the Bew Crew. I’d think the Castillo trade is indicative of value.
The Mets would definitely be in on either of those two.
…or, how about they just pay their players? Most of these seem reasonable. Make trades to improve in 2023? Fine. Make trades simply to reduce salary? Bad.
Guardians might have 20 in a few years.
With the number of rookies the Royals started this year they might have an entire 40 man roster of arbitration players in a couple years.
Thanks as usual Steve and Matt!
Looks like the Royals are gonna have some tough decisions (and some easy ones). Lopez, Keller, and Mondesi total almost $15 mil that they could spend on a quality FA.
I agree the Royals, in my opinion, have the most interesting arbitration class when it comes to potential NT Candidates.
Maybe not Lopez as far as NT
Keller seems like the kind of pitcher that drifts towards the pitching wastelands of Colorado or Texas.
Astros estimates look pretty good except Tucker.
Back to back 30 hr seasons, 800+ OPS every year so far, gold glove calibur defense, great on bases, and no injury history.
I would expect closer to the $7.4M Pete Alonso got his first arbitration year.
Agreed. You can introduce WAR into arb proceedings, as well, and Tucker’s coming off two 5+ WAR seasons. That’s a tremendous player.
No way in hell is Bellinger getting that. Ill be surprised if he’s not non-tendered, depending on how he does in the PS.
I don’t think the numbers tend to (ever?) go down. So yes he’s probably getting non tendered to try and catch on elsewhere
Belinger salary is not going down and he made 17 million last year.
The question about Belinger is will he be tendered?
I’d be shocked if they didn’t non-tender him. They have enough OF now and that $18M can go to either trying to re-sign Turner or his replacement. My guess is he signs a one-year deal, perhaps with a team option for a 2nd year, and just tries to resurrect his career with whomever will give him a chance.
I don’t think as much of a slam dunk that they’ll non-tender him, although certainly very possible. Not a lot of the current Dodgers can play as good of a CF as Bellinger plays it. I’d think that they have to move Betts to CF, or grab someone else in free agency. Betts would probably prefer to stay at RF.
I’m thinking that the Dodgers may give him one more season to turn it around. We’ll see how he does in the playoffs.
Halo11, Couldn’t agree more on Bellingers salary not going down a red cent. I don’t recall a player ever taking a pay cut in arbitration from his prior year. If the Dodgers DID keep him, they are not going to do it to merely save a couple Mil. Pure pocket change to them.
Rays for cody
He will play for three Rays next year and be a MVP candidate again.
Their not paying 18 mil for slightly better defense.
If he is not offered arb, he is a free agent no one has to pay him 18 million. One yr 10 mil or so to try to re establishhis worth. Why not a playoff team like the rays ( no state income tax either)
Of course not. They’d be paying him for the defense and some kind of a turnaround. My point is that the Dodgers don’t have anyone ready to plug in there defensively. Taylor is a big step down and his bat was not good. Betts can do it but I’m sure would rather play RF.
The Dodgers can bring him back for less than the $18mm. I’d think he’d want to stay a Dodger.
Mlb, Mookie can certainly play center with the best of them but of course prefers right. Taylor, I must say, is one heck of an outfielder. He is very VERY good at all 3 OF positions. In any case, I would probably keep Bellinger because if he goes to another team and reforms back to his old hitting self I would probably scream/cry.. I half expect it.
19 Mil, 1 year, 2nd yr option for 25mil with 3mil buyout. Yes, he wants to stay a Dodger. The man is a Dodger.
Taylor is okay but at CF doesn’t have the range that Bellinger does and a little bit more of a klutz. Plus Taylor strikeout ratio is so annoying. When he doesn’t put up the numbers the strikeouts become increasingly annoying. Too streaky. I’d give Bellinger one last season but he needs to completely change his approach at the plate. Work on pitch recognition. That is the basics fundamentals of hitting and I feel like he’s severely lacking at it these days.
It’s “they’re or they are” instead of “their.”
I think it goes down by a certain percentage, 20% is what is stuck in my head right now, said the least someone could receive in their second year of arbitration would be 80% of what they got in their first trip through arbitration
Michael Macaulay-Birks
My first response was going to be “We will see.” But I don’t think he’ll go to arbitration. He’ll either be non-tendered or sign for less.
That’s my feeling.
20% is the maximum cut, so $13.6m is as low as it can go, iirc.
Would you pay $13.6m for the privilege of having a guy worth 0.7 rWAR / 650 PA over the last three seasons? Can’t think of why. I don’t even think he’s worth the look for $2.2m.
He’s worth a look for that, just based on his MVP in 2019. With him firmly in his prime, teams will take a chance that he could recover that form or something closer to it. This past year wasn’t good by any means, but it was much better than last year and he managed to put up a positive WAR (1.2). My guess is $5-7M with a team option for $12-15M on a 2nd year.
I can think of at least three reasons why. First, he’s an elite defender at a premium position. Second, the free agent CF class is weak and the Dodgers don’t have anyone in their system ready to play it. Third, he could very well bring up his offensive output, which he’s actually done over the last month or so of the season. A good scenario for both the Dodgers and the player is a buyout of his last year of arbitration and a one-year extension.
Elite is surely overstating it, compadre. +7 OAA across 2021-2022, combined? That’s above average, but not by much, and his sprint speed is down to 28.1 fps, good===but not elite by any means.
Given the state of CFers in MLB he may be on the fringes of the best of a limp lot, but at the listed arb award, especially, Brandon Nimmo seems much more the Dodgers kind of guy. They were willing to take on the more fragile, less capable Pollock for… 4/55m. Nimmo at something like 5/110m would be a much better bet, obviates the need for Bellinger, and their 2023 salaries would be very close.
If Nimmo wasn’t available I’d be leaning more towards your camp, but Nimmo is very much a Dodgers kinda guy—a real pro, superb and often elite OBP, can play LF and CF, and fake RF when Mookie needs a breather, and makes Chris Taylor’s decline easier to bear. We shall see, but I’d be surprised if the Dodgers didn’t make Nimmo a solid offer, early on.
I surely wouldn’t make any argument predicated on defensive stats. They are a notorious mess. Yes, Nimmo would be a great fit, but the problem with your theory is the Dodgers would very likely need to make a tender decision on Bellinger long before they got a shot at Nimmo. I also believe you are underestimating what he will get (not that Dodgers can’t afford it). And again, I believe the most likely scenario with Bellinger is a buyout plus a one-year extension. The Dodgers have the non-tender leverage.
Most of the league would take a flyer on him for 2.2m.
That wouldn’t be a flier, it would be grand theft.
He must have meant 12.2
Ha. I dunno. We hear such funny stuff.
Funny and Crazy mean the same thing on this site.
@TrumboJumbo Ah, I was referring to the look teams get in ST, when they can go to arb then cut a guy for 1/6th his award (that would be $2.2m, based on the $13.2m I mentioned, should Belli get a 20% cut over his 2021 salary).
They wouldn’t be getting him for that $2.2m, of course. It would be an expensive evaluation period that precludes them from going after, say, Nimmo this offseason, since it’s hard to imagine they’d sign Nimmo for a 20-22m AAV and still be considering Bellinger even at his minimum arb award.
@Mets6986?? That’s not an option on him for 2023, fwiw, but rather the cost of the brief look teams get at their arb players, when they have the option of cutting a guy at 1/6th of his salary.
I think (at least, acc to the last MLBPA) they have just the first two weeks of ST to make a decision. It was what the Mets did with Travis d’Arnaud at one point, cutting him before he went to the Dodgers for one PA, then resurrecting his career with the Rays.
Why do teams and players even have hearings?
They should just listen Matt!
He rocks!
Shohei off the board made your job a bit easier! What would your projection on his last year of arbitration have been?
CAAngles. We both had the same thought.
@CaAngels Intriguing question. Would you calculate him as two separate players, pitcher and DH, then combine those two awards? Probably gets you close. Or if you go by rWAR, 9.8 has to be the record for arb players, so take the highest award ever and… add 20%?
Arbitration has already killed the Angels… Ohtani signed for 30 million.
I wonder what his estimate would have been.
**Knock on Wood** What if he hurts his arm again? And can’t even swing a bat? I would give him a nice fat 4 year contract with incentives/escalators. Max it out to 200 mil
that is too much for rengifo. he is but a pinch hitter.
At the beginning of 2022 I would have agreed on Rengifo. Seeing his bat come alive after the ASB changed my mind on him. I am looking forward to seeing continued progress on defense in 2023 with sustained batting numbers. He might be a really good 4th infielder for us.
Prov, you need to look again.
1) He hit RH pitchers about as well as he always has, which isn’t that good. 629 OPS+.
2) He had a sensational July, Then 253/268/446 after July 31st. With his defense, That’s pretty much unplayable.
I looked at Rengifo’s numbers again at your suggestion and I stand by my first comment. He finished 2022 with a .724 OPS which is about 150 points better than 2021; slugging .429, increase of 120; OBP .294, increase of 50; BA .264, increase of 60. His strike outs doubled but his plate appearances more than doubled so the percentage decreased. All in all, his numbers are trending in the right direction. I’m not saying he’s done developing but he turned a corner the second half of this year
His defense numbers look best at 2B but they still need work.
I’m looking forward to seeing him build upon those improvements next year.
People are entitled to their opinion, but the data does not support optimism. Defensively he was awful. By far the worst defender on the team.
Offensively his numbers were isolated to one month and against LH pitching.
You have to squint and ignore everything else to be high on Rengifo. And since his last two months he was basically unplayable, you have to really squint.
if the team gets proper middle infielders fletcher will become a backup. that leaves no place for rengifo.
I think I was the only person who did not like the Fletcher extension.
He’s going to make 6 million in 2023 and 18.5 million over the next three years. He’s the second baseman.
That seems like a reasonable salary. I think he was initially overrated, but he looks like about an average 2B to me. And “average” at any position is worth $6M, imo. And he has two options which provide value.
I think of him as a poor man’s Merrifield.
Joe, it’s not an unreasonable salary, but it was unnecessary. He’s never going to be worth a lot of money and of course, if his career took the turn it took, it’s an unnecessary overpay.
If I were the RS, and Bogaerts were to leave, and Story were okay returning to SS, I’d be interested in adding Fletcher.
Not for what he’s making you wouldn’t.
And since he’s under Angel control, there was no need to overpay him.
There was no need to ink him in your lineup. It was a mistake, which is why I was against the signing, which is why I thought it was a good deal for Fletcher. He wasn’t scheduled to be a free agent until 2025.
I didn’t hate the deal, but it was confusing how so many Angel fans loved the deal.
$2.4M for 2.4 WAR and 103 OPS+ sounds pretty worth it.
No question he’ll get tendered. But his production still comes down to 1 month and against LH pitching.
Mike Yaz is looking like a non-tender. 2 years of stats with a low BA. His 2020 year was great but it was 60 games. Just can’t justify paying this guy close to $6M for good defense and declining offense.
@davemlaw 2 rWAR player for $6m, who can still handle CF? Even if the offense declines another half step, he’s worth it. Any chance at all of a rebound? The Giants seem to get whatever’s left from declining players….
Bless this lot for having this in the pipeline for fans whose teams choked, er, lost in the postseason.
Only $6.2m for the batting champ? Seems low for McNeil, who led the Mets in rWAR at 5.7, won the batting title, and has 4 of 5 plus-.311 seasons.. Besides, how many teammates can you call “Squirrel,” everyone else knows it’s really because he has buckteeth, and get away with it?
Very low! It’s probably going to be double that.
Giolito absolutely should not get a raise after last year’s performance. I can’t imagine being the worst guy in my company at what I do and getting a 45% raise.
Fair point, but his FIP was only 0.27 of a run worse than last season. If he didn’t have bad luck on balls in play (given his HR was actually better than in 2021) he’d have had an ERA around 4.00.
How much do we charge him for bad luck?
Ok, but was the increase in BABIP due to bad luck or just more hittable stuff? If you ask him, he didn’t have his best stuff pretty much all year. Per FanGraphs, his xERA rose 0.96, suggesting some bad luck, but not as much as the FIP difference suggests. fWAR down by 2.3. BB/9 rate up from 2.62 to 3.40.
Some of his season may be bad luck, but his stuff just wasn’t there this year. I’m sincerely hoping he comes back strong next year, but for now, I don’t think he should be getting a raise after putting up some pretty poor numbers, almost none of which topped last season.
@hyraxwithaflamethrower Fair points. Thanks for the considered reply.
Here’s hoping the Braves re-sign all of those guys, and give Fried an extension.
Bham: here’s hoping you didn’t see Silvino Braccho’s name at the end of that list. That guy screams “non tender” if anybody does.
Rays will prob NT: Choi, Yarbs, Mejia, Quinn…heard rumors Anderson too, hope they give him another chance. And at least Yandy will be traded.
Curious who else from that list will no longer be a Ray next year. A lot of turnover.
All the rest should be given arb..even if they get what they want its cheap 1-2 million for most. And if the rays dont want to keep some of them, trade for assets
That’s how Renfroe “should’ve” landed on the RS. I understand he had no value to the Rays, but how could the rest of the BB world ignore the fact that he was a 2.0-2.5 WAR player at a controlled price?
One of the easiest NT decisions on here is Codi Bellinger. On a one-year make-good, it shouldn’t matter too much to him where he goes, so I’m hoping if the White Sox miss out on Conforto, they give him a look. That way, he wouldn’t block Colas and at the very least, RF defense would dramatically improve.
Or the Rays if he wants to go to a playoff team
$9 mil seems like a lot for Rosario
@Lone Rangers Rosario’s coming off a 4.1 rWAR season. For $9m? You jump at that. After being off the Mets for a year his defense is now quite good, Durable, fast, decent base stealer with a season coming up that should reward that, turning 27…
Even the Guardians should be willing to pay him that, though I suppose someone might be willing to pay them a premium in trade for his remaining two arb years at a 30% discount, more or less, versus FA prices.
This is where the RS need to strike. Call up CL & TB, and anyone else with a tight budget. Guys that TB, CL, Cincy, etc. can’t afford, could be gold to the RS.
If the RS are unable to sign Bogaerts, I’d be glad to give up a decent prospect/not good prospect for Rosario. And I’d be glad to extend him thru 2024/25, or whenever we think Mayer will be ready.
The twelfth year for these projected salaries — That is very impressive in these unstable times!
If we’re all going to just toss meaningful numbers around… Musgrove got more ear checks last night (2) than hits given up (1).
Go Pads!
That was an incredible performance. His pitching was just…phenomenal. I’m still surprised at how the Pads basically manhandled the Mets in Citi Field.
Ironically, home field advantage didn’t seem like it was an advantage for several teams in these early series.
Good luck against the LAD Gwynning! That’ll be the ultimate challenge for the Pads. They need to show up with that same fire.
It’s getting spicy, my friend! Time to flog the Phils… and I have to be real and say we’re rooting the Cleveland Ex-Padres… but if we can get our geese in line and meet up with a certain East Coast pinstriped team… well, we have some favors that we feel we need to return to NYY! Play hard and have fun, Clip!
Hey, that would be incredible! Honestly, Houston is very concerning. They have the Yanks number.
But those games were amazing SD played against LAD! The crowd in SD was electric! SD has an impressive roster and they’re really starting to jive.
If the Yankees don’t make it, I’ll be rooting for SD for sure.
Houston is a juggernaut. That train will be tough for anyone to derail. No shame in saying that we want you to do that for us though!
I couldn’t be more proud of the city. The job isn’t over, but the fans are doing our part and then some. Downtown has been BONKERS in the funnest way. Streets were shut down to people dancing. Crazy fun!
Sure means a lot to hear support for my little ol’ Pads! It’s been amazing so far. Cheers amigo =)
Do the Tigers offer Austin Meadows $4 million? New PBO, Harris has his 1st big decision with this guy.
Gregory Soto $3+million?
Victor Reyes due for a pay cut. Candelario for $7 million seems ridiculously high. He’s gotta be heading to FAgency. The Tigers need Harold Castro, but not Willi so much, Kyle Funkhouser missed the entire season but for $800k he’d be a bargain. Tyler Alexander is cheap. They’ll sign him. Jimenez and Cisneros will probably stay with the Tigers too.
They traded for Meadows so if healthy, for a much needed 25 HR bat, he’s a keeper @$4MM. Soto still saved 29 games, which is a bargain at $3MM. Candelario is a year removed from leading the AL in doubles and Kreidler did not look ready with the bat. Victor Reyes was one of their better bats all year, and can play all 3 OF spots. With Greene, Meadows and Baddoo all LH, that Reyes can hit RH (SH) is a good fit.
I disagree. They should have traded Soto when his value was relatively high, before/at the deadline. Victor Reyes might have been one of their better bats, but that’s not saying much of anything and he’s not that good of an of’er/getting on base/base runner. Both Castro-s are utility bench players. Candy for $9m and his complete lack of offensive production- is a conundrum.
I honestly do not know if many playoff teams would retain half of these players. Which is probably why they are playoff teams.. I think they need to let quite a few of these guys go, clean house and change the psyche of this team. The bittersweet problem (minus Candy), is they are all relatively affordable; which is probably the ultimate justification for the FO.
I don’t see much future potential in any of them besides Funk, Alexander, and Ronny G
The $6MM estimate to Kyle Farmer by the Reds looks beyond reach.
I only see the cubs tendering two maybe three contracts…. As much as I kind of like mills, Reyes and some others, 40 man roster spots will be too valuable (and in Reyes case, 6 million is too much)
Hoerner and Happ are the two 100% locks.
Heuer is a lottery ticket coming back from injury but cheap. Madrigal and Ortega are cheap. I would say just one of those three in order of likelihood Madrigal, Heuer and Ortega.
So yeah, three sounds right.
But after they non-tender Franmil, I do see a real chance they offer him a major league minimum contract and they might be the only ones willing to do so. Better yet would be if they could snag him to a cheaper minor league contract.
Great list.
I think it is a no brainer for the Angels to bring back their entire class. Canning is hurt a ton but at $1.1 million that’s small enough to take a gamble.
I don’t think Chad Wallach will get a major league contract. I’m not sure why he would make the 40 man roster.
The other are automatic.
True. Wallach is the lone casualty.
If the Dodgers are going to keep Bellinger, shouldn’t they have already extended him? Give him some extra motivation/confidence for the playoffs?
It takes two. Perhaps Bellinger wants to test the market.
Possible. I feel like he has it very good in LA. Very cushy spot. Not sure why he would want to push his luck and upset the apple cart all things considered/at this juncture.
He is getting NOWHERE near 18/yr on open market!
Don’t care what belli gets as long as he isn’t offered a dime by the Braves. Keep him Dodgers. Braves need all the advantages they can get against you guys. Good field, no hit of’ers are a dime a dozen. Mil’s are flush w/them.
Maybe, but the Dodgers are pretty stingy with who they extend. A good case can be made for them to do it this year, but not such a good one for doing it sooner, considering the injuries he’s had.
I really don’t see them giving him what he could probably get from other teams. They have deep enough pockets to look to upgrade over him.
That being said, the elimination of the shift could influence Belly’s transaction this off-season as well.
How could he get more from other teams than he would if they tendered him?
I do think that he could be more coveted by other teams than his own at this point. But with a year of team control left, it probably doesn’t matter, unless they decide to cut bait with some sort of sign and trade scenario. Tender him. He accepts. Trade him. Would that be possible? Unlikely but I just feel like he’s not gonna be there very much longer.
Alas, a nice playoff run could change all that for him and also probably get him a higher arb offer.
Tender him, he does well, you keep him or trade him. I hear ya. Was thinking similar things..
(Double checks his baseball ref page)
Arb eligible next season so the dodgers will get the benefit of waiting to see what post shift bellinger looks like.
The banishment of the shift will have an effect on hitters, but I feel it will be negligible. Especially with a guy like Bellinger who never used to have a problem going the other way until the past 2 years. He has major mechanical gaps/flaws in his swing/plate approach among other things. I believe in the guy still. I am pulling for him hard. But there is a multitude of things that need to get corrected with him.
I agree 100%. He had that big season and beyond that nothing more than a couple hot weeks sporadically. He has contributed absolutely zero at the plate for long, long stretches. It just leaves a bad taste in your mouth when talking about a great team with such high expectations; he seems out of place there.
Trumbo, I doubt it will be negligible. Look at the batting average that won the batting title. And hopefully, hitters won’t have to worry as much about launch angle and now contact is a better thing.
Halo, contact has always been a better thing. Being a pure hitter has always been a good thing. Ted Williams and Tony Gwynn would say all this shift crap is nonsense. I am a lefty myself. I never gave a hoot where anyone positioned themselves. A lot of vacant square feet to hit the ball to. Because of no shift, a lot of guys will double down on trying to pull the ball and crank one out every AB. Hence, they will strikeout just as much if not more and hit just as many pop ups and grounders to 2nd. Baseball has a way of restoring order and a natural balance to itself.
A lot of people comment on Bellinger’s swing mechanics. Sure, there is some validity to that but I think that is blown out of proportion. Even in his MVP season he had an upright stance and a free swinger.
To me the biggest factor on why hitters like Bellinger struggle is pitch recognition, or lack thereof. Bellinger often looks lost at the plate. Not recognizing pitches. Type of pitch, movement, location, velocity, etc. That’s why you see Bellinger chase or guess or take off-balance swings. When a hitter is locked in they don’t miss mistake pitches. They don’t chase out of the zone as much. They lay off the borderline pitches because they know they’re coming and they have the discipline to lay off. That hasn’t been Bellinger the last few years.
Contact has not always been a better thing. Pujols was Mr. DP because they stacked the left side of the infield. He had to try to hit everything in the air.
I hope baseball is baseball again.
And also because he was never faster than really slow.
The impact of the shift rule is being underestimated. It will be a huge benefit to lefty hitters and add to the LHP premium. The teams that plan for this in advance will reap the most benefits.
He can’t hit a fastball above his hands to save his life. You really know baseball Trumbo. You must have noticed this countless times. Can’t believe that all the knowledgeable LA fans on here want the Dodgers to tender him. You guys can do a lot better than him for less money—can’t you? I’m willing to be convinced that I’ve got the wrong idea about him, but it won’t be easy, lol.
Blue Skies. When two guys on the left side can play on the outfield grass, you are not going to get much through the infield and anything you can’t is a dp. Banning the shift is going to be great for the game.
I agree. I am adding the shift to my fantasy team strategy, but thinking maybe a 5% OPS increase for lefties?
Baseball has a way of restoring order and a natural balance to itself.
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That’s a great way of phrasing it. In the real world, we have predictions of doom every time we change something. All that ever happens is people wake up and figure out a new strategy in the morning.
BB will do the same thing with the new changes. With millions at stake, even the dumbest player in baseball will spend some time trying to figure how to maximize their abilities.
Maybe, but you will still have three guys lined up with 2nd base or to the right, with one foot on the OF grass.
I’m not sure we disagree. Righties will get some benefit from a shallower infield, but by far the most radical shifts we see now are against LHB, with the third baseman crossing over to play short RF. Most of the grounders hit to this phantom position will become base hits. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the average LHB hit 20 points higher next year. I’d be surprised if it was less.
I’m not predicting doom, but I do believe they’ve made too many changes at once. Eliminate the shift, and see what happens for a season. Then consider changes to base sizes and the pickoff rules. The last change is the one I really dislike. The battle between the pitcher and a baserunner is one of the most interesting in the game, but since so many fans (and sportscasters) seem to find it boring now it’s being effectively eliminated. Bad idea.
@BlueSkies_LA To MLB’s credit (hard to do, I know), they have experimented with each in the minors, and there doesn’t seem to be any negative synergy looming due to combining the changes—and each looks worthwhile on its own.
The pickoff business doesn’t end the pitcher-runner battle, just changes it and intensifies it. A runner needs to tempt the pitcher into a second throw, the pitcher needs to resist and adjust, in turn luring the runner to inch and inch towards 2B enough to successfully pick him off, which is an interesting tactical battle all on its own.
Iirc along w the larger bases SB success % was boosted to about 75% from 65% in the minors where they experimented. Sounds like a conservative, reasonable improvement. Baseball has gotten almost boring. That needs to change, ASAP. Big help would be to shorten commercials b/t innings to the 30 seconds players actually need, but…. $ $ $
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the average LHB hit 20 points higher next year.
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That’s about what I had in mind. But the 20 points are primarily singles, meaning that it is only 20 points in OPS, which is ~ .3%.
I realize these changes have been worked a lot in the minors but that doesn’t increase my confidence very much that they won’t alter the MLB game more than we expect. I believe the pickoff rule change combined with the larger bases is going to put a good base runner on 2B almost automatically. But, we’ll see (as if we have any other choice).
If we want less boring baseball, how about less chatter from sportscasters about exit velocities and launch angles? There’s a lot of serious not getting what fans like to see and hear going on these days.
If they can shorten games significantly, the only way the commercial breaks are going is longer!
When will the Super Two’s be decided?
I have two questions. One, why haven’t the Jays signed Guerrero Jr. to an Arenado deal and two, what happened to Bellinger? He was MVP caliber and just fell off completely. He’s like a fragile DH player now
@Yanks2 He had that “Bro!” shoulder (?) injury where he slammed a high five that led to surgery. Is there anything else? No idea. Quiet substance abuse issues? No idea. It is odd, though. You’d expect recovery, by now, if it was just the shoulder.
I guess popping your shoulder out of the socket might lead to permanent weakness, and surgeries aren’t always well-performed, so…
?
I expected the Dodgers to lock Bellinger up to a deal similar to what Judge will get but I guess that’s not happening now. Probably a non tender candidate
Ty France winning the batting title and golf glove at 4.7 arb salary would be quite the bargain. Stay healthy big fella and you’re one of the biggest bargains in the game
1.3M for Zimmer?!
Nope.
Confused on Nathaniel Lowe. I thought he was under team control for 2023. ARB-1 wasn’t until the 2024 season. At least that’s what Spot Tracs shows. I was surprised to see $4.3 million in 2023 for him. Not that he doesn’t deserve it. Had an awesome season. But can someone clarify? Thanks!
I am confused on Nathaniel Lowe. Spot Tracs says that he’s under team control for 2023. His ARB-1 year isn’t until 2024. But the projection here says $4.3 million for 2023. Not that he doesn’t deserve it. He had an awesome season. But big difference in league minimum and $4.3 million. Can someone please clarify? Thanks!
He is Super 2 eligible. See this article: mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/super-two-status-set-at…
Just wanted to let you guys know that you forgot 5 players who are Super 2 arbitration eligible.
– Angels: Touki Toussaint (2.135)
– Rockies: Peter Lambert (2.166)
– Tigers: Miguel Diaz (2.132)
– Giants: Alex Young (2.143)
– Rangers: Kolby Allard (2.162)