Catcher Willson Contreras will reject the Cubs’ qualifying offer and instead test the open market this winter, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers tweets. The Cubs, who surprisingly did not trade Contreras at the deadline — a deal sending him to Houston was reportedly nixed by Astros ownership — made the easy call to instead make the one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer to their longtime catcher. Contreras always appeared overwhelmingly likely to decline the offer. He’ll now seek a multi-year deal in free agency.
The 30-year-old Contreras will head into free agency on the heels of his fourth career season of 20-plus homers and 20-plus doubles. The three-time All-Star and 2016 World Series champion slashed .243/.346/.466 in what seems likely to be his final season as a member of the Cubs. Chicago had multiple opportunities to extend Contreras over the years, with the player himself publicly expressing his desire to stay along the way. It never appeared that the team made a strong effort to sign Contreras for the long haul, however, and with veteran Yan Gomes signed through 2023, the Cubs have at least one alternative option (though there’s a good chance they add another via free agency or trade).
Contreras’ defense has become something of a talking point going back to the trade deadline, though some of that talk is perhaps overblown. It’s generally rare for starting catchers to change hands at the deadline, as learning an entirely new staff on the fly and in the middle of a postseason push is a difficult task for any backstop. That concern, of course, won’t exist with a free-agent signing, as Contreras will have an entire offseason and Spring Training to familiarize himself with a new team’s staff.
In terms of actual defensive metrics, Contreras boasts a 30% caught-stealing rate that’s comfortably above league average and is regarded as having one of the best throwing arms of any catcher in the game. Statcast credits him for the 11th-best poptime of any catcher in baseball and also feels that his framing has been average or slightly above over the past three seasons. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at -1 in 2022 but credited him with a +8 mark just one year prior. It’s fair to say that Contreras isn’t an elite defensive backstop, and over the course of a multi-year deal that stretches into his mid-30s, he may spend additional time at DH or another position, such as first base. None of that means he’s a defensive liability in the short term, however.
Because Contreras rejected a QO, any team that signs him will have to forfeit at least one draft pick. Luxury-paying clubs will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next year’s draft and will see their international bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Teams that were neither luxury tax payors nor revenue-sharing recipients will surrender their second-highest pick and see their international pool reduced by $500K. Revenue-sharing recipients would “only” have to surrender their third-highest pick. The Cubs, as a team that neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing, would receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 in next year’s draft (typically in the No. 75 overall range).
Yep, and water is wet.
So, who are the Cubs selecting to protect from Rule 5? Guesses? Mine below:
Davis
Alcantara
Brown
Jensen
Devers
There will be more. I bet they let Roberts off the 40 figuring he’s going to miss most if not all of 2023 and that nobody will take him. If they take him they have to keep him on the roster for the whole year and nobody will do that. Rucker, Wick are trade candidates and Vizcaino, Rivas and Ortega are cannon fodder. Riley Thompson and Kohl Franklin are candidates but they both are oft injured and were basically horrible last year. Gonna be interesting for sure.
Davis, Brown & Alcantara are locks. And I’ll agree with Jensen, since they want to see how that cutter works now. Devers is also a logical choice but I’ll go with Reinddl instead.
Phew. I bet Hoyer was sweating that one out. I thought there was a chance he might sign it.
Yes, nothing like sweating out your team getting worse
It is not necessarily getting worse, it could very well get better.
JD being overly dramatic. Not sweating Contreras. It’s that simple.
How is it worse to get rid of one of the worst catchers in the league?
You’re a goof if you think he is one of the worst catchers. The only knock at him is he’s not a good framer. But so what, he does everything else well. Has a strong arm and worked very well with a mostly young staff last season. Look at how well they produced in the 2nd half. He is a leader and is openly passionate about the game.
How is Contreras one of the worst catchers in the league?
Coop——I totally agree with you—-it’s kind of amazing how over the last 60 days that Sean Murphy has become the second coming of Johnny Bench and Willson Contreras has morphed into Biff Pocoraba.
Murphy is nice but some of the trade hauls people think he going to bring is ridiculous.
And now Willson Contreras is the worst catcher in baseball. Even worse than ALL of the other that hasn’t started multiple all star games the last three events.
mike127;
The over expectation upside stuff comes this time each year when a name player is a FA or mentioned in trade. That surely has happened with Sean Murphy. Heck, if the guy is that good the A’s should keep him around to handle their young pitchers coming in, and give him an extension buying out some of his FA years at market prices.
As for Willson Contreras – I don’t get it. For months the guy was talked up, now he’s being talked down some. He’s an offensive catcher similar to Gary Sanchez. As a person that believes a catcher’s primary responsibility is to run/call a game, handle a staff and play D – particularly block breaking balls in the dirt; I don’t see him fitting with a Cubs team that has begun a big push to develop and maintain their own pitchers. The man’s asking for more money than Yasmani Grandal got and look what a disaster that’s turned out to be.
Yes, he hits well for a Catcher. But not for a DH, 1B, or 3B were he to be moved there.
Wish him the best.
The facts are plain and simple. The Cubs Pitchers did better with Gomes and Higgins. I thought Ross could fix Contreras but he couldn’t either
sam and uncle—i largely agree with both of you—if willson wasn’t a free agent and probably getting somewhere between $14-16 a year over 4-5 this wouldn’t be a discussion.
But—like I’ve read—he’s all of a sudden become the “worst” catcher in baseball.
Uncle–the Cubs pitcher’s ERA with Higgins behind the plate this season was 4.96–FAR WORSE than Willson’s was 3.96 (Gomes 3.72). Heck Realmuto was 3.90 and his team almost won the World Series.
My initial point (and I believe that it is time to move on from Willison) is that somewhere in the last 60 days Sean Murphy has become the greatest catcher of this era and Contreras the worst. The internet is a wonderful thing—if one person types it and another reads it, it becomes truth.
(and Sam, if Grandal is worth 18 mill a year—Willy is worth 35 a year and I don’t even know you, but I think we can each fetch about 20 per year).
mike127;
I’ve been here on-and-off for well over 5 years.
I call the time of the year from the day after the WS thru the opening day of Spring Training: ‘Silly Season’.
And if you think this is screwy, wait till the end of ST as the season approaches and we read all the “Projections” for both individual players and teams from Internet statistical sites (that are quoted in the comment section as soon to be gospel)….80% of which by late-May / early-June will be amazingly off-base.
I think Contreras is going to be surprised by the weak market for his services, especially given the draft pick compensation now attached.
If that is true, there’s always the Rockies.
Well played
I think Contreras will easily get a 3-4 year deal at an amount of 20 million a year.
This being said, as a Cubs’ fan, I would have been happy if he took the QO but I would decline to offer him a multi year deal.
I was thinking around 4/65-70 million. I don’t think he makes 20 million per season because I really don’t think many teams view him as a primary catcher.
If somebody gives him 20 million a year they will instantly regret it. And as for the comment above that he was great with the Cubs young pitching staff, Yeah he was great. Because he didn’t catch much in the 2nd half and nothing at the end.
And…….. If you use common sense, If somebody is going to offer him 2o million a year, Why didn’t they trade for him at the deadline when all they would have to give up is a player they already have, Rather than pay him 20 million AND give up a prime draft pick? Then they could of extended him for that money which I’m sure he would of taken. Boggles the mind huh?
Where are all the dudes (and ladies) who commented on here that he was accepting?
There was never a thought that he would accept!
Check the comments on the “Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions” article. I tried to link it but got hit with the “pending.”
I miss you Harambe
I don’t think Contreras cares if the market is a little soft and that the Cubs did the jag move of offering the QO knowing they didn’t want him anyway. He just wants to play for an organization that is committed to winning.
I like when the Sox fan calls the QO a jag move.
I like when a Cubs fan assumes that everyone that writes something is a White Sox fan…btw White Sox purposely didn’t QO Rodon last year at request of his agent and respect for the players opportunity to hit the open market. The CWS weren’t going to pay him the QO amount anyway, much like the Cubs fully knew Contreras wanted a deal done.
If the Cubs wanted him he’d be signed. The Cubs pitching staff was markedly better with Gomes and Higgins behind the plate. Contreras has all the ability to be a great C, But obviously was lacking in framing and calling a game, Even with all the information on the planet that the Cubs provided.
Rick Hahn on why the White Sox didn’t offer Rodon a QO:
“Essentially, it’s a contract offer of $18.4 million for one (year),” White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said Tuesday at the GM meetings in Southern California. “And we made the assessment based on everything we know, which includes our needs and our other targets, that that wasn’t an offer we were comfortable making at this time.”
btw White Sox purposely didn’t QO Rodon last year at request of his agent
==============================
That’s incredibly stupid, if that’s what they did.
Where did you get that from? That’d be very dumb.
He has stated he wants to return to the Cubs even with teard in his eyes. Jus’ sayin’…
Those tears dried up once he realized that they had no intentions of signing him.
Wasn’t a jag move. It was a business decision. Just like his decision to not accept any extension they offered him.
@msq- You say you aren’t a White Sox fan but then you go say some nonsense about the request of Rodons agent and respect to the player. Kind of showing your loyalties there. Why would you make that up?
google.com/amp/s/www.nbcsports.com/chicago/white-s…
Maybe you should read the version that quotes the players agent and one that quotes Contreras himself.
theathletic.com/2947784/2021/11/10/scott-boras-spe…
bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/09/28/willson-contrer…
I’ll admit I only skimmed those two articles, bit I didn’t see anything about the White Sox not offering Rodon the QO out at Boras’ request. Hahn explained they weren’t comfortable paying him $18.4M.
And if I want the team’s perspective, I’ll choose the quote from the team over the quote from the agent.
I never disagreed with you about Contreras so your second link is pointless. Your first link is behind a pay wall. Now you look even more deceptive.
Future St. Louis Cardinal.
If you’re expecting Yady Molina, You ain’t getting him.
Anyone expecting Contreras to similar to Yadi is foolish. Worse defense, better bat. They’re significantly different types of players.
@Unclemike1526
No, I’m not. Just seems like a decent fit, given the catching options for the Cardinals.
Don’t know why two different posters responded in such similar ways. When Chipper Jones or Derek Jeter retired, nobody thought the next players at those respective positions were the reincarnation of the previous.
He’ll never be Yadi, but we need a bat (or two) and he checks that box while being an above average catcher. 4 years, $65million total. Let’s do this.
Yadi is the definition of intangibles. When he comes up on HOF time I’m really going to be interested.
St. Louis sure loves them diva catchers.
Contreras played well in the first half of the season, but tanked on purpose in the second half to avoid being traded. However, the second half is what people will rememeber, coupled with his age. He WILL be signed, but not for no where near $19M a year. Good luck to him.
Why would he intentionally tank in the second half? Reduced performance would hurt his earning potential, and a mid-season trade would have made him ineligible for the QO, which would have helped his earning potential.
but tanked on purpose in the second half to avoid being traded.
===========================
That would incredibly stupid, if true.
It would be* incredibly stupid, too. winky face
If that were true, he would have played better after the trade deadline in the second half but his best month was June.
You sound like someone trying to argue for a narrative you want to be true.
Bad agent advice. He just made a mistake….no way anyone picks him for near this QO amount. For one he can’t catch not even close to being competent at the pos defensively, Liability back there and i’d put him last or 2nd to last in mlb defensively at the position.