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Willson Contreras

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Nutting, Crowe, Contreras

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Shortly after signing third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year $70MM extension, Pirates owner Bob Nutting spoke to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette about the team’s plans moving forward. After applauding the work done by third-year GM Ben Cherington to rebuild the team’s talent pipeline, Nutting stated his belief “that we’ve rebuilt that foundation to the point that now we can really focus on the major league club.” That’s surely welcome news for Pittsburgh fans, who have sat through an arduous rebuilding process that’s included three consecutive fifth place finishes and a bottom-three payroll entering the 2022 season (per Cot’s Contracts).

Of further note, Nutting spoke of the need to look internally and pick “a few key building blocks […] to start building here in Pittsburgh.” It’s already known that the team tried to extend All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds prior to the 2021 season, and have since settled on an arbitration-avoiding pact with the 27-year-old earlier today. Still, with Hayes locked up through his prime years and extensions on the front office’s mind they’ll be hard-pressed to find a better building block than Reynolds. Whether further extension talks take place with Reynolds or other “building blocks”— Mackey suggests breakout reliever David Bednar as one option— remains to be seen, it’s clear the franchise is ready to pivot and secure a division title for the first time since 1992.

Some other news of note from the NL’s central division…

  • We’re only a few games into the new season but the Pirates feel they may have another breakout reliever on their hands, reports Kevin Gorman of Tribune-ReviewSports. After picking up a three-inning save yesterday, the first of his career, converted-starter Wil Crowe extended his streak to seven scoreless innings to open the season. Small sample size caveats are abound here, but it’s clear that the headlining return from 2020’s Josh Bell trade has seen his stuff play up out of the bullpen. After posting a 5.48 ERA across 26 games (25 starts) with below average strikeout numbers last year, Crowe has upped his swinging strike rate and ranks among the early leaders in avoiding hard contact this season.
  • The Cubs and catcher Willson Contreras remain far apart in arbitration talks and it doesn’t appear an agreement will be reached without an arbiter, per NBC Sports’ Gordon Wittenmyer. While a few months remain for both sides to settle on a midpoint between their exchanged figures— Contreras filed at $10.25MM while the Cubs put forth a $9MM offer— a tidy resolution never seemed likely between the club and one of the last members of their 2016 World Series-winning core. The Cubs are a file-and-trial club and take a hard stance on discussing arbitration salaries after the figure-exchanging deadline (this year’s deadline was March 22). When asked if the club would make an exception for Contreras, given his reputation on the team and as one of the league’s better hitting catchers, team president Jed Hoyer replied “That’s not our policy. We went past the deadline.” For his part, Contreras doesn’t seem too bothered by the prospect of an arbitration hearing, noting that he’s “been going through a lot of [criticism] since I was in the minor leagues, and everything they have to say I’ve already heard it”. The 29-year-old Contreras is set to headline a decent free agent catcher market after the season, and while he hasn’t closed the window on lengthening his Cubs tenure he did note his chances of remaining with the team may take a hit once the Cubs allow him to test the market. The two-time All-Star also drew trade interest over the offseason, which may eventually expedite the catcher’s exit from his original organization.

Latest On Willson Contreras

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The Cubs have overhauled a good portion of their roster this winter. Among the most impactful moves was bringing in veteran backstop Yan Gomes — the top catcher in this year’s free agent crop — on a two-year deal prior to the lockout.

That has naturally led to some trade speculation regarding incumbent catcher Willson Contreras, who’s entering his final year of club control. There hasn’t been much firm indication the Cubs have shopped the 29-year-old this winter, but they’d also yet to open talks regarding a possible long-term extension with his representatives as of last week.

Speaking with Bruce Levine of 670 The Score over the weekend, an emotional Contreras acknowledged the possibility he could either be dealt or depart the organization via free agency next winter. “This is something that is really tough for me,” the two-time All-Star said. “Personally, the relationships I have with the team, players and fans, (leaving would) be something that will be really tough to take. This is something very emotional for me, knowing all that I have had to go through to get to this point. It’s going to be really tough and very emotional.”

Levine reports that the Yankees and Padres are among the teams that have checked in with the Cubs to gauge Contreras’ availability, although it’s not clear if any discussions are currently ongoing. Chicago certainly doesn’t have to trade the right-handed backstop, as the implementation of the universal designated hitter could allow manager David Ross to pencil both him and Gomes into the lineup on a regular basis. The Cubs’ fairly active offseason suggests they’re not punting the 2022 campaign entirely, and keeping both players would give the team enviable depth behind the dish and the opportunity to lengthen the overall lineup.

That said, one could argue that having Contreras and Gomes as a 1A/1B tandem between catcher and designated hitter isn’t an optimal deployment of those players. Both are good hitters for catchers, but neither has the kind of offensive track record that’d make them great fits as regular options at the DH spot. Contreras is the better offensive player of the duo, but even he falls a bit shy of the typical output expected from the bat-only position.

Contreras has been an above-average hitter by measure of wRC+ in each of his six career seasons. Going back to the start of 2020, he owns a .239/.345/.429 line, numbers that check in nine percentage points above the league average. That’s markedly better than the .230/.307/.392 figure put up by catchers around the league, but it’s not elite middle-of-the-order output overall. Most American League teams have increasingly preferred to cycle various regulars through the DH spot as quasi-rest days unless they have an excellent bat-only player to plug in. Just seven hitters tallied 300+ plate appearances as a DH last year; of that group, only Miguel Cabrera didn’t outhit Contreras.

While he might not be a great fit for semi-regular DH time, Contreras should hold plenty of appeal to catching-needy teams. The Yankees make an unsurprising possibility after trading away Gary Sánchez. New York is presently slated to roll with Kyle Higashioka and Ben Rortvedt behind the dish. That duo figures to be capable defensively but doesn’t seem likely to come close to Contreras’ production at the plate.

The Padres making a run would be more surprising, as San Diego already has something of a logjam at catcher. Contreras’ price tag could also prove problematic for the Friars. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.7MM salary in his final year of arbitration. That’d come with a matching luxury tax hit, and the Padres already have around $224MM in CBT commitments, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Acquiring Contreras would push the Friars right up against or perhaps past the $230MM base tax threshold, and Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote last week the club would prefer to not surpass the CBT marker for the second straight season.

Aside from Contreras, there don’t seem to be many options for teams looking to upgrade behind the plate before the start of the season. Almost all the free agent options at the position have been signed, and there aren’t any other teams who seem likely to make regulars available in trade. The A’s might entertain the possibility of moving Sean Murphy, but that seems unlikely since he has yet to even reach arbitration eligibility. The trade market may just consist of depth types like Reese McGuire and Jorge Alfaro if the Cubs elect to hold onto Contreras.

Contreras: No Extension Talks Yet With Cubs

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The Cubs have a decision to make regarding Willson Contreras, who’s heading into his final season of club control. Contreras is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary in the $8.7MM range this year. Amidst an organizational reboot, the Chicago front office finds themselves in something of an awkward spot with their longtime catcher.

Chicago signed Yan Gomes, perhaps the best catcher in this year’s free agent class, to a two-year contract in November. That seemed to position Contreras as one of the likeliest trade candidates around the league on-paper, but there’s been no real indication the Cubs have shopped him. That could indicate they’re not looking to move on from Contreras, although they’ve also not yet broached the topic of extending the relationship.

Speaking with reporters (including Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic) yesterday, the 29-year-old backstop said the organization and his reps at Octagon haven’t discussed a potential long-term deal. “No, there haven’t been any talks. I’m good with it” he said. “They know what they’re doing, they know what’s best for the team. I’m here because I love my team. Whatever is going to happen is going to happen.” Contreras went on to indicate he’d be willing to have those discussions. “I’m always open. You know me, I’m not focused on that. I’m focused on having a good year, having fun with my team and trying to win.”

The Cubs stripped down a good portion of the 2016 World Series winning club at last summer’s trade deadline, moving Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Báez. Those departures kicked off what one might consider a new era of Cubs baseball, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer maintained there were no plans for a full rebuild. Hoyer, GM Carter Hawkins and the rest of the front office have largely backed up those assertions this winter. In addition to Gomes, they also signed Marcus Stroman to a three-year deal, added Andrelton Simmons on a one-year pact and claimed Wade Miley off waivers. They don’t seem done, as Hoyer told reporters (including Jesse Rogers of ESPN) this morning they’re still on the hunt for pitching help.

Even in the event the Cubs are trying to hang around the periphery of contention this season, there’s a case to be made for moving Contreras. Gomes is a capable #1 catcher in his own right; getting both players regular reps probably involves Contreras seeing a lot of time at designated hitter. He’s a good hitter, particularly in comparison to his peers at catcher, but he’s not the kind of elite bat for whom teams have been inclined to set aside the DH role.

Contreras has been an above-average hitter by measure of wRC+ in each of his six career seasons. Going back to the start of 2020, he owns a .239/.345/.429 line, numbers that check in nine percentage points above the league average. That’s markedly better than the .230/.307/.392 figure put up by catchers around the league, but it’s not elite middle-of-the-order output overall. Defensively, Contreras has typically been adept at throwing out attempted base-stealers, although he struggled in that regard last season. His pitch framing metrics, per Statcast, have checked in right around the league average over the past two years after he struggled mightily in that regard early in his career.

All told, the Cubs have to decide whether they view Contreras as a potential long-term building block. Recent free agent pickups notwithstanding, they’ve pared back payroll over the past twelve months. With only around $72MM in guaranteed commitments on the books in 2023 (per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource), the flexibility should be there for Chicago if they want to make a run at an extension.

Yet if the Gomes signing signaled a changing of the guard behind the plate on the North Side, Contreras could find himself switching uniforms over the coming weeks. If he doesn’t sign an extension, he’d be on track to hit free agency as one of next winter’s top available catchers — part of a group that could also include Gary Sánchez, Mike Zunino, Christian Vázquez and Max Stassi.

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

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We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts.  Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet.  Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point.  Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place.  Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market.  We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets.  The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars.  One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected.  For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three.  Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll.  Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt.  Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration.  He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March.  Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+.  Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards.  It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson.  He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable.  The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected.  The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal.  Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game.  The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2.  Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018.  It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends.  Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+.  In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019.  Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19.  He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021.  Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors.  The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing.  A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining.  We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022.  The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3.  Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation.  We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration.  Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA.  While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01.  He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September.  Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency.  He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4.  Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate.  It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out.  Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday.  Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time.  In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best.  Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage.  Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September.  He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas?  He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5.  Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post.  The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022.  He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate.  Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6.  After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72.  Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings.  After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either.  So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable.  He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6.  Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings.  The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.  Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball.  The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout.  They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.  That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary.  Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable.  I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen.  The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7.  Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons.  He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards.  With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario.  Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017.  He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger.  Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field.  Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over.  The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8.  Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list.  Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency.  They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH.  A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano.  But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021.  It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested?  Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game.  After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties.  He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21.  Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July.  He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old.  He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining.  I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH.  The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9.  J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022.  He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020.  This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October.  By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart.  While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22.  As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit.  Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21.  A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well.  It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average.  It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position.  On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs.  While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis.  I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10.  Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here.  As such, he’s the least likely to be traded.  In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20.  Escobar is also capable of playing second base.  McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well.  It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays.  Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected.  A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20.  Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period.  A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well.  McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021.  McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month.  He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat.  30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11.  Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job.  As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well.  Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher.  Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career.  WAR is always tricky with catchers.  FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross.  The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency.  Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras.  At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload.  The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending.  A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends.  A midseason trade is a possibility as well.  The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12.  Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade.  He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19.  His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain.  Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19.  He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration.  He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return.  Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13.  Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi.  After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th.   Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month.  In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches.  In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury.  Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart.  32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year.  He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings.  You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season.  The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14.  Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees.  However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production.  This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee.  He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time.  We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year.  He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry!  We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

Looking For A Match In A Willson Contreras Trade

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Over the past year, the Cubs have sent a lot of good players out the door on their way to slashing payroll and starting a new rebuild. Yu Darvish, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Craig Kimbrel and more. But one of the key pieces of their recent competitive window remains. Despite occasional rumors that he was being shopped around, Willson Contreras is still a Cub. The backstop will be eligible for arbitration for a third and final time this winter, a season in which the Cubs are unlikely to be competitive, given their recent sell-off. That means they would be wise to commit to one of two paths, either extending him or trading him.

When choosing between the two paths, however, something that might tip the scales is the weak free agent crop of catchers this offseason. With such a low supply of catchers available, teams might have to turn to trades if they want to upgrade behind the plate. That could make Contreras a hot commodity, given his solid track record. Across the past six seasons, Contreras has a line of .259/349/.458, for a wRC+ of 114, producing 12 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. Only five catchers in baseball produced more fWAR over that span. (Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey Mike Zunino and Gary Sanchez.) Contreras has also been remarkably consistent in that time, with his wRC+ falling between 101 and 126 each year, and his fWAR always between 0.7 and 2.7.

Financially speaking, he won’t be prohibitively expensive. His 2021 salary was $6.65MM. He will get a raise on that through arbitration, probably to the $10MM range, approximately half of what Grandal, Realmuto and Posey are making per year on their current contracts.

As to who would be interested in acquiring him, it would have to be a team with a need behind the plate, of course. But given that he only has one year of control, it would also have to be a win-now club. Let’s look at which teams could fit the bill.

Cleveland: Roberto Perez can be controlled for 2022 with a club option valued at $7MM. However, he’s now two years removed from his excellent 2019 season. Since then, he’s only played 76 games due to various injuries and hit .155/.253/.277 for a wRC+ of 49. Austin Hedges got 85 starts at catcher this year and hit just .178/.220/.308 for a wRC+ of 40. There’s certainly room for improvement on that kind of production. The club also has maximum payroll flexibility. Once they exercise their $11MM club option on Jose Ramirez, that will bring their total 2022 payroll commitments up to the range of… $11MM. Bringing in Contreras along with a few free agents, and then having some better health in the rotation, 2022 could see the club easily surpass their 80-82 record from this year.

Mariners: After surprising the baseball world with a 90-win campaign, the Mariners have seemingly moved beyond rebuilding and into competing. In 2021, they gave playing time to Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy and Cal Raleigh, none of whom ran away with the job. Murphy had a tremendous season in the shortened 2019 but couldn’t replicate it in 2021. He hit .202/.304/.350 this year, for a wRC+ of 87 and 1.0 fWAR. Torrens was better with the bat but was mostly being used as a designated hitter down the stretch. Raleigh has decent defensive numbers but hit a paltry .180/.223/.309 for a wRC+ of 47. Mariners’ president Jerry Dipoto recently spoke about adding more offense for 2022 and has a trade-happy reputation. Going after Contreras could be one way to add some more thump to Seattle’s lineup.

Red Sox: In 2021, Boston split the catching duties between Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki, both of whom were okay but not great. Vazquez hit .258/.308/.352, wRC+ of 77. Plawecki’s line was .287/.308/.389, wRC+ of 102. They each produced 0.5 fWAR. Both of them have one year of team control left, as Plawecki is going into his final arbitration year whereas the Red Sox have a $7MM club option on Vazquez. Contreras would be an upgrade for the 2022 season and could help bridge the gap to younger catchers like Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez.

Rockies: The Rockies gave most of their 2021 catching starts to Elias Diaz, who had a sudden power breakout. Coming into this year, he had 15 home runs in 273 career games. In 2021, he had 18 dingers in 106 games. Despite this power surge, he still only put up a wRC+ of 92, partially because of playing his home games at Coors. (wRC+ controls for ballpark factors.) Dom Nunez was the primary backup to Diaz, and he put up a line of .189/.293/.399, which adds up to a wRC+ of just 69. Contreras could easily provide a boost to this tandem, if the club thinks it’s in win-now mode, which they apparently do.

Yankees: It’s become an annual tradition for people to debate whether or not the Yankees will stick with Gary Sanchez. His tremendous early years have seemed too tantalizing to give up on, even as he’s struggled more recently. In 2021, he was competent enough, hitting .204/.307/.423, producing a wRC+ of 99 and 1.5 fWAR. Like Contreras, he is going into his final arbitration season, and will be due a raise on a salary of $6.35MM. Could the Yankees be willing to swap him out for a catcher with a similar payout but more consistent production?

Roster Moves: Contreras, Lopez, Detmers, Guerra, Quintana

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Catching on some of the roster moves that took place before today’s slate of games…

  • The Cubs placed Willson Contreras on the 10-day injured list due to right hip inflammation, officially ending the veteran catcher’s season.  In corresponding moves, Alfonso Rivas was moved from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL, and catcher Tyler Payne made his MLB debut today after his contract selected from Triple-A.  One of the few veterans remaining in the wake of the Cubs’ deadline fire sale, Contreras might be either a trade candidate or an extension candidate this winter, depending on the club’s next direction.  Contreras finishes the year hitting .237/.340/.438 with 21 home runs over 483 PA.
  • The Marlins activated Pablo Lopez from the 60-day injured list, as Lopez tossed 1 2/3 innings in an abbreviated start during Miami’s 5-4 win over the Phillies today.  It marked Lopez’s first game since July 11, as a right rotator cuff strain interrupted a very impressive season for the 25-year-old.  Lopez posted a 3.03 ERA and above-average strikeout and walk rates over his first 101 innings, setting himself up for 2022 as yet another quality young arm in the Marlins rotation. To make room for Lopez’s return to the roster, Miami placed left-hander Sean Guenther on the 10-day IL and moved first baseman Jesus Aguilar to the 60-day IL.
  • The Angels called up left-hander Reid Detmers to start today’s contest with the Mariners, and also activated righty Junior Guerra from the 10-day IL.  Outfielder Taylor Ward heads to the 10-day IL with a right adductor strain while southpaw Jhonathan Diaz was optioned to Triple-A.
  • Jose Quintana cleared waivers and outrighted to the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate.  San Francisco designated Quintana for assignment earlier this week, after the veteran left-hander posted a 4.66 ERA over 9 2/3 innings with the Giants.  Quintana was claimed off waivers from the Angels at the end of August, as the Giants looked to add some lefty depth down the stretch.

NL Notes: Padres, Cubs, Mets

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Fernando Tatis Jr. made no two ways about it when discussing his future as a shortstop. “(A.J. Preller) signed a shortstop, and he’s gonna have a shortstop,” he said, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic (via Twitter). “That’s the plan so far, and I’m not planning on moving for a very long time from there.” Tatis moved to the outfield this season after being slowed by a repeated shoulder injury. The Padres are flush with infielders under team control for next season, including Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim, both of whom are capable of manning short. Regardless, Tatis Jr. sounds dedicated to reclaiming his natural position.

Elsewhere in the National League…

  • Willson Contreras gave an honest assessment of what he thinks the Cubs need heading into next season, while acknowledging that he thought he was going to be traded in this piece from The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Despite being the “last man standing” in many respects, Contreras continue to say all the right things about wanting to stay and be a leader on the next generation of Cubs’ contender. They have some money to spend this offseason, but for the first time in awhile, many teams seem to, and there are only so many “foundational” pieces available in that market.
  • The Mets biggest decision this winter will be finding the right man to lead their front office. After a number of missteps, the Mets will look to some high profile names to come in and right the ship. Of the most noteworthy, Oakland’s Billy Beane may be the most realistic target, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). In the Mets favor is the fact that the Athletics are often looking to save money, and at this point in his storied career, Beane comes at a significant cost. Still, Beane has been the driving force behind a successful couple of decades of A’s baseball, and it’s hard to imagine him walking.

Cubs Activate Willson Contreras, Place Keegan Thompson On 10-Day Injured List

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The Cubs have activated Willson Contreras from the injured list, and in a corresponding move, they have placed Keegan Thompson on the 10-day IL with right shoulder inflammation, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter).

Contreras went on the injured list back on August 12 because of a right knee sprain. He’s the rare familiar face in the Cubs lineup, though he hasn’t been there of late. Austin Romine and Robinson Chirinos have handled the catching duties in his absence. On the year, Contreras has hit .226/.333/.417, good or a 105 wRC+, a solid mark from behind the plate.

Thompson was excellent for the Cubs in small samples out of the pen, but he has struggled while getting a few turns in the rotation. In total, the 26-year-old righty owns a 3.54 ERA/5.13 FIP across 48 1/3 innings with the big league club. Thompson’s spot in the rotation is due to come up again on Tuesday against the Reds.

NL Injury Notes: Moustakas, Lopez, Contreras

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Mike Moustakas left tonight’s game due to right hip tightness, replaced by Asdrubal Cabrera at third base to begin the bottom of the second inning.  Moustakas struck out in his lone plate appearance (in the top of the second) and Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer noted that Moustakas “hopped on his left leg a couple of times” following a game-opening single from Miguel Rojas.  This was one of four balls hit in Moustakas’ direction during what ended up as a five-run inning for the Marlins en route to their 6-1 win over the Reds.

The severity of the hip problem isn’t known, though the 2021 season has already been an injury-marred campaign for the veteran infielder.  Moustakas has played in only 45 games due to missing more than 11 weeks due to a right heel injury, which eventually necessitated a trip to the 60-day injured list.  The result is a .216/.309/.417 slash line and six home runs through 162 plate appearances, and a 92 wRC+ that would count as the Moose’s lowest since the 2014 season.  Cabrera was claimed off waivers just yesterday to help the Reds’ infield depth, though he could be in line for quite a bit more playing time if Moustakas’ hip issue results in another IL visit.

More injury updates from around the National League…

  • Pablo Lopez was scratched from a scheduled rehab start on Thursday and is now returning to Miami, Marlins manager Don Mattingly told reporters (including MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola).  A right rotator cuff strain sent Lopez to the injured list (retroactively) on July 14, yet even with just over a month remaining in the season, Mattingly didn’t commit to the idea of potentially shutting Lopez down.  “Nothing more than…just slowing him down, making sure we’re careful with him.  Sounded like a minor setback for sure,” Mattingly said.  “Probably not minor to Pablo, who’s wanting to get going.  But I know the medical staff’s going to be careful with him.”  Lopez has posted a 3.03 ERA/3.50 SIERA over 101 innings for Miami this season, with above-average strikeout (27.1%) and walk (6.1%) rates and strong hard-hit ball numbers.
  • Willson Contreras is expected to begin a minor league rehab assignment within a few days’ time, Cubs manager David Ross told The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and other reporters.  Contreras has been on the 10-day IL since August 12 due to a sprained right knee.  One of the few veterans still on the roster following the Cubs’ trade deadline fire sale, Contreras is enjoying another solid season, hitting .226/.333/.417 with 17 homers over 403 plate appearances.

Cubs Release Jake Arrieta, Designate Kyle Ryan For Assignment

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The Cubs have requested unconditional release waivers on right-hander Jake Arrieta, per a team announcement. That move comes amid a series of transactions, as Chicago has also placed catcher Willson Contreras on the 10-day injured list with a sprained knee, reinstated catcher Austin Romine from the 60-day injured list, selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Meisinger from Triple-A Iowa, and designated lefty Kyle Ryan for assignment.

It’s been a miserable season for Arrieta in his return to Chicago. The former Cy Young winner got out to a nice start, working to a 2.57 ERA through April 25, but he’s been tattooed for 58 runs in 58 1/3 innings since that time. Opponents have racked up 91 hits, including 19 home runs, during that stretch. Last night’s outing was particularly non-competitive; Arrieta yielded seven runs in the first inning and ultimately departed after four frames with eight Brewers runs on the board.

The Cubs signed Arrieta to a one-year, $6MM deal over the winter with the hope that the injury troubles which plagued him during his three years with the Phillies were behind him. He’s avoided any notable arm troubles, but Arrieta’s fastball is sitting at a career-low 90.8 mph on the year and he’s seen across-the-board declines in swinging-strike rate, chase rate, home-run rate and walk rate. This marks the sixth straight season that he’s seen his ERA increase from the prior season.

Arrieta is still owed the balance of that $6MM salary — about $1.71MM between now and season’s end. He’s a lock to clear release waivers and become a free agent, but any team that signs him thereafter would only owe him the prorated league minimum for the remainder of the year. That sum would then be subtracted from the balance owed to him by the Cubs.

As for Contreras, the knee troubles that are currently hobbling him are believed to be minor. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters this morning that the move was “precautionary” in nature (Twitter link via the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan). He’s seemingly not expected to require a lengthy stay on the injured list.

Romine, who has logged just six games and nine place appearances this season due to a left wrist sprain, will presumably pick up the bulk of the catching work in place of Contreras. The veteran 32-year-old was the Yankees’ backup catcher from 2016-19 before signing with the Tigers as a free agent for the 2020 season. He’ll now get the opportunity to team up with his brother, Andrew, for the first time in the big leagues. The Cubs inked Andrew to a minor league pact at the end of Spring Training and recently selected him to the Major League roster.

Meisinger, 27, has a 5.70 career ERA, albeit in a tiny sample of 23 2/3 innings between the Orioles and the division-rival Cardinals. He’s spent the 2021 season thus far with the Cubs’ top affiliate in Iowa, pitching to a 4.25 ERA with a huge 34.4 percent strikeout rate but also a concerning 12.2 percent walk rate (in addition to three hit batters).

The 29-year-old Ryan, meanwhile, has struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 13 1/3 innings this year. It’s the second straight season of struggles for Ryan, who posted similarly discouraging numbers in 15 2/3 frames with the 2020 Cubs.

That said, Ryan has been excellent in 25 innings of Triple-A ball this season, logging a 2.52 ERA with a 24-to-7 K/BB ratio. He’s also not terribly far removed from a 2019 season that saw him toss 61 frames of 3.54 ERA ball as one of the Cubs’ most heavily used relievers.

With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, Ryan will be placed on either outright or release waivers in the coming days and be made available to all 29 other clubs. He’s playing on an $800K salary, so he’ll cost a bit more than the league minimum, but Ryan has a bit of track record and can be optioned for the remainder of the season, so he’d be a solid enough depth pickup for a team in need of some southpaws in the bullpen.

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