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Willson Contreras

Looking For A Match In A Willson Contreras Trade

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This year’s Aug. 2 trade deadline is just over seven weeks away, and while some names won’t become obvious candidates to move until five or even six weeks from now, others have been evident for more than a year. That’s more true of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras than arguably any player in baseball. There may not be a likelier player to get traded this summer, and the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. The Cubs looked like probable deadline sellers heading into the 2021 season, and Contreras’ fate looked clear when Chicago sold off Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, among others. Some fans might’ve held out hope for an extension that would make Contreras the centerpiece of the next contending Cubs core, but no long-term deal came to fruition.

From both the player and team vantage point, Contreras’ current career year has come at the perfect time. He’s hitting .267/.394/.506 with 10 home runs, 10 doubles and a triple through 213 trips to the plate. By measure of wRC+, the only catcher who’s been more productive (min. 100 plate appearances) is Willson’s own brother, William, who is having a breakout campaign over in Atlanta. Willson’s 10 homers are tops among catchers, and he’s on pace for career-highs in several offensive categories. A pending free agent couldn’t ask for a much better walk year, and the Cubs have to be thrilled to see him producing like this at a time when league-wide catcher offense hasn’t been this bad since 2002.

Contreras has acknowledged that a trade appears to be his likely fate at this point, and it’s more a question of when and where than whether it’ll happen at all. Since a trade feels far likelier than not, let’s take some time and run through the possible landing spots for Contreras over the next several weeks.

Obvious Fits

Astros: The only team in Major League Baseball that has gotten worse production from behind the plate is the Orioles, who entered the year trying to lose and have since watched their top prospect struggle upon his initial call to the big leagues. Martin Maldonado has posted an awful .153/.225/.277 batting line, while backup Jason Castro has somehow been even worse at .102/.206/.136. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this week that the Astros will likely stick with Maldonado despite the complete lack of offense, declining framing marks and increasingly frequent passed balls. The rationale appears to be that Maldonado’s leadership and game-planning skills are too valuable.

That piece, however, did not acknowledge the possibility that the Astros can still go ahead and acquire Contreras, pushing Maldonado to a backup role and jettisoning Castro from the roster. There’s no justification for a supposed World Series hopeful to trot out a pair of catchers that has combined to hit .141/.221/.241 this season. Houston has other needs, be they in center field or at first base where Yuli Gurriel’s bat has cratered, but Astros catchers have been 63% worse than league-average at the plate (by measure of wRC+). Whatever intangible value Maldonado may be providing with his game-planning, he’s giving a lot of it back at the dish. And, again, it’s eminently possible to keep Maldonado on the roster and still install Contreras as the everyday catcher.

Mets: James McCann hasn’t lived up to his four-year, $40.6MM contract in the first place, and he’s currently on the injured list for the foreseeable future owing to a fractured hamate bone that’ll sideline him into July. McCann should be back in action by the time the trade deadline rolls around, but he’s hitting just .196/.266/.286 on the season anyhow and hamate injuries can have lingering effects on a hitter’s production even after they’re cleared to return.

It’s in the Mets’ best interest to get McCann sorted out at some point, but they have two years left to figure that out (or to find a way to unload the contract). Backups Tomas Nido (.245/.277/.274) and Patrick Mazeika (.186/.205/.326) haven’t provided any offense whatsoever in McCann’s absence. Taking on Contreras pushes McCann to a backup role and deepens the lineup considerably — both this summer as the Braves continue to heat up and climb in the standings and in the postseason, when they’ll be facing off against better pitching than they see during the regular season.

Giants: Buster Posey abruptly retired following a resurgent 2021 season, and former No. 2 overall pick Joey Bart hasn’t been able to seize the opportunity as the Giants’ new starter just yet. Optioned to Triple-A last after hitting .156/.296/.300 through 108 plate appearances, Bart could still eventually sort things out and solidify himself as the Giants’ catcher of the future. For now, however, they’re relying on career backup Curt Casali and journeyman Austin Wynns, whom they acquired from the Phillies last week.

The Giants are a deep-pocketed club with a $162MM payroll that’s nowhere near their franchise record and an improved farm system. General manager Scott Harris, formerly an assistant general manager with the Cubs, is plenty familiar with Contreras and all he can bring to the table.

Payroll Concerns

Rays: Only a hair better than the Astros in terms of their overall production, Tampa Bay catchers are batting a combined .169/.195/.305 this season. Mike Zunino’s defense remains highly regarded, but he’s having the worst season of his career at the plate (.148/.195/.304). Backup Francisco Mejia has been a bit better at the plate but much worse behind it.

It’s an open question as to whether the Rays, whose current $83MM payroll sadly constitutes a franchise-record mark, would receive ownership support to take on Contreras and the remainder of his salary. The Cubs could perhaps be persuaded to include some cash to cover some or all of the salary, but doing so on their end would require the Rays to part with a steeper prospect package. The Rays, as always, have a deep system and could afford to make such a move. Perhaps they could sell the Cubs on taking back the remainder of the recently optioned Ryan Yarbrough’s $3.85MM salary to help balance things out a bit. (Chicago could certainly use some more pitching depth.) Specific names aside, there aren’t many more obvious fits for Contreras than Tampa Bay.

Padres: Austin Nola and Jorge Alfaro have combined to bat .239/.298/.326 while logging every inning for the Padres at catcher this season. San Diego has top catching prospect Luis Campusano hitting well in Triple-A, so perhaps the most straightforward path to an upgrade is simply to promote him to the big league roster.

That, paired with the fact that the Friars are just inches below the new $230MM luxury-tax threshold, makes them a tough fit. There’s a clear on-paper need for the Padres to improve their production behind the dish, but the also have needs in the outfield corners and/or at first base, and the bandwidth to take on Contreras doesn’t seem to be there. The Cubs aren’t going to take on Eric Hosmer or another weighty contract in a deal like this, and asking Chicago to pick up all of the remaining tab on Contreras would only up the price.

Guardians: Austin Hedges is one of the best defensive players in baseball, regardless of position … but one of the sport’s worst hitters as well. Maybe Cleveland simply wouldn’t be interested in displacing Hedges and his potential Gold Glove, but it’s hard to look at his .175/.233/.283 batting line and not wonder how the Guardians’ lineup would look upon swapping that out for Contreras and his aforementioned .267/.394/.506 slash. And, as with the Astros, the Guards could certainly keep Hedges as a defensive-minded backup, pushing Bryan Lavastida back to Triple-A and probably pushing Luke Maile off the roster.

Cleveland’s payroll is just under $70MM right now, and one would think that leaves more than enough room to add veterans at the deadline. But payroll has been a major issue in recent seasons, and it’s not clear whether they’ll be close enough to a playoff spot to make a move like this — or whether they’d be willing to part with long-term value for a rental who’d immediately be their second-highest-paid player.

Wait and See

Yankees: The Yankees have received surprising production from trade acquisition Jose Trevino, who’s batted .309/.356/.505 and already matched his career-high five home runs in just 104 plate appearances. Trevino came to the Yankees as a lifetime .245/.270/.364 hitter, however, so it’s fair to be a bit skeptical of his ability to sustain this pace. He’s not striking out much but also isn’t making much in the way of hard contact, either. The trade deadline is still six weeks out, and if Trevino regresses toward his career levels of production, then the Yankees figure to be in this market, particularly with Kyle Higashioka again struggling at the plate.

Mariners: Seattle was getting career-best production from Tom Murphy before he landed on the injured list with a dislocated shoulder. He’s since suffered a setback, and it’s not clear when he’ll be ready to return. Prospect Cal Raleigh is doing his best Zunino impression in place of Murphy, striking out in a third of his plate appearances while showing good power and strong defensive marks. Raleigh, 25, has a .168/.252/.411 batting line with seven long balls in 107 plate appearances. If he can find some more consistency and/or if Murphy can get on track for a return, the Mariners might not feel the need to make this type of move. Beyond that, the M’s have cooled after a hot start and are 4.5 games back from a Wild Card position and six games under .500. They’re close enough to act as buyers right now, but that outlook could change in the coming weeks.

Marlins: Miami hoped to have addressed its catching need this winter when acquiring Jacob Stallings, but he’s hitting .206/.271/.255 in his first season with the Fish. Even more problematic is the team’s overall performance against southpaws: an MLB-worst .205/.280/.315. The Marlins are a fringe contender at the moment and probably have bigger needs even if they were to make a push at the deadline.

Longer Shots

White Sox: The Sox are already paying Yasmani Grandal $18.25MM, and while the resulting .185/.294/.237 batting line can’t sit well with the organization, there’s no indication to this point that they’re prepared to take on a notable veteran like Contreras and push Grandal into the role of MLB’s highest-paid backup. It’d be interesting to see another chapter entered into the story of crosstown Chicago blockbusters, though. The Sox didn’t get what they were hoping for when acquiring Craig Kimbrel last summer, but the prior North Side/South Side swap sent Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez to the Sox for Jose Quintana.

Twins: Minnesota’s focus at the trade deadline is going to rightly be pitching help — both in the bullpen and in the rotation — but their catchers have been a middle-of-the-pack unit, at best. Gary Sanchez leads the team in plate appearances at designated hitter and has hit better as a DH than as a catcher. But the Twins feel he’s been better than his reputation with the glove, and they’ve used the DH spot as a means of giving several players off — including Byron Buxton. Sure, the lineup would be deeper and better with Contreras catching, Sanchez at DH and Ryan Jeffers as a backup catcher, but this isn’t going to be a priority.

Red Sox: Christian Vazquez has posted a solid, if unremarkable .271/.315/.374 batting line in 168 plate appearances this season, but neither of Boston’s backup options (Kevin Plawecki, Connor Wong) have provided any offense at all. This doesn’t feel all that likely, as Boston probably has bigger needs to consider when the deadline rolls around — assuming they hang onto (or remain within striking distance of) their current No. 3 Wild Card spot in the American League.

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Contreras has been the best all-around catcher in baseball this offseason, so you could make the argument that he can/should be shoehorned into just about any contender or fringe contender’s lineup. But when looking at the combination of legitimate playoff chances, pure need behind the plate and realistic ability to facilitate a trade of this nature (based on luxury tax, farm system, payroll), it’s hard to look past the Astros, Mets, Rays and Giants as the best fits for a short-term splash behind the plate.

Cubs, Willson Contreras Avoid Arbitration

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The Cubs and catcher Willson Contreras have avoided arbitration, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN (Twitter link). The sides came to terms on a $9.625MM salary, agreeing to the exact midpoint between their respective $10.25MM and $9MM filing figures.

The agreement doesn’t have any long-term contractual ramifications, but they’ll avoid the hassle and any potential acrimony of going through a hearing — which had been scheduled for today. This is the final trip through the arb process for Contreras, who is scheduled to reach free agency for the first time at the end of the season.

The 30-year-old looks like the clear top option among a deep catching class, and he’s continued to improve his stock with an incredible first couple months of the season. Contreras owns a .277/.403/.530 line with ten home runs through 201 plate appearances, sporting career-best marks in both walk (11.9%) and strikeout (19.9%) rate in the process. He leads catchers (minimum 100 trips to the plate) in wRC+ with a 162 mark that indicates he’s been 62 percentage points better than the average batter thus far.

Not only is that hot start setting up a likely lucrative free agent payday, it also makes him one of the most interesting players to follow over the next six-to-eight weeks. The Cubs are ten games below .500 and a virtual lock to miss the postseason, making Contreras one of the game’s bigger potential deadline trade chips. Last month, he told Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago he’d not heard any extension overtures from the front office. That’d seem to point towards a trade being the likelier outcome, although the career-long Cub has consistently maintained he’d be open to in-season discussions if the front office initiates talks.

The agreement closes the books on a light arbitration class for the North Siders. Outfielder Ian Happ was the only other arbitration-eligible player on the roster, and he and the organization agreed to a $6.85MM salary during Spring Training. Happ, himself a possible midseason trade candidate, will go through the process once more before reaching free agency after the 2023 campaign.

Cubs Select P.J. Higgins, Designate Ildemaro Vargas

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The Cubs have selected the contract of catcher P.J. Higgins, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. In a corresponding move, utility player Ildemaro Vargas has been designated for assignment.

Higgins, 29, was a 12th round selection of the Cubs in the 2015 draft, who worked his way up to make his big league debut last year. Unfortunately, after just nine games in the majors, he landed on the injured list with a forearm strain which ultimately required surgery and finished his season. He was outrighted in the offseason and became a free agent, but quickly re-signed with the Cubs on a minor league deal. He’s evidently put the injury behind him, as he’s off to a scorching hot start this year. In 22 Triple-A games so far, he’s hitting .417/.500/.569, 193 wRC+.

The Cubs needed to add a catcher to the roster due to Willson Contreras suffering a hamstring injury yesterday. That injury doesn’t seem to be serious enough for a stint on the injured list, though Higgins will combine with Yan Gomes as the club’s catching duo until Contreras is ready to return to game action.

As for Vargas, he’s never hit much in the big leagues, as evidenced by his batting line of .227/.265/.354, 60 wRC+ over 186 career games. However, he’s often proved alluring to teams due to his extreme versatility, seeing time with the Diamondbacks, Twins, Pirates and Cubs. In addition to being a switch-hitter, he’s also slotted into the defensive alignment at every spot on the diamond outside of center field and the battery. In ten games with the Cubs this year, he’s hit .130/.231/.348 for a wRC+ of 64 while playing second base and shortstop. The Cubs will have a week to trade him or put him on waivers. If he were to clear, he would have the ability to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency, as he’s been previously outrighted in his career.

Willson Contreras Leaves Game With Right Hamstring Tightness

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Cubs catcher Willson Contreras made an early exit from today’s game due to what the club described as right hamstring tightness.  The injury occurred in the third inning, as after Contreras had singled and then stolen second base, he bolted for third on what ended up being a foul ball from Seiya Suzuki.  The catcher immediately grabbed at his right hamstring and, following a visit from the team trainer, left the game.

Afterwards, manager David Ross told The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and other reporters that “there’s definitely something going on,” with Contreras’ hamstring, and that “we’ll find out how extensive” after some tests. 

At the very least, it would seem like Contreras will miss a game or two to monitor his leg problem.  The Cubs’ next off-day is on May 27, so it’s at least possible the team might keep Contreras out of action (but not on the injured list) until then to see if a full 10-day IL stint could be avoided, though that would require Chicago to call another catcher up from the minors.

If an IL trip is required, Contreras and the Cubs can only hope that it’s a relatively short absence.  The veteran backstop is off to a great start, hitting .258/.382/.458 with five home runs over his first 144 plate appearances.  That would make for a career year for Contreras if he keeps hitting at that pace, and it would set him up nicely for a big contract this winter as the 30-year-old is eligible for free agency.

Missing several weeks or even months due to a hamstring injury would hamper Contreras’ ability to score top dollar on the open market, though given his track record, Contreras would still likely land a healthy contract even if his platform year is less than stellar.  However, missing a lot of time prior to the trade deadline would certainly hurt or even erase the Cubs’ chance of a good return for the catcher, as trade rumors have swirled around Contreras for well over a year.  One of the few Cubs veterans remaining after last summer’s deadline fire sale, Contreras recently said he hasn’t heard anything from the team about a possible contract extension.

Cubs Notes: Contreras, Heuer, Howard

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Catcher Willson Contreras is potentially reaching the end of his time with the Cubs, the only organization he’s ever known. He’s about five months away from becoming a free agent and is also an obvious trade candidate, meaning he could depart before this year’s August 2 trade deadline. He’s open to stick around via a contract extension but apparently isn’t hearing anything from the front office, reports Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer wasn’t any less withholding when speaking to the media, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic relays that he avoided answering a question about the extension situation.

The Cubs did this extend-or-trade dance last year with Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, with all three of them eventually getting dealt before the deadline. Whether Contreras ends up following the same trajectory or not, he doesn’t seem fazed by it. “I’m just focused on doing the best for this team, finding the best way to help the team, and whatever happens in the middle of the season is going to happen,” Contreras said. I’m at peace with myself. I’m at peace with my mind. And whatever happens, even during the season or after the season, is going to be fine with me.”

Contreras is on pace to have his best season yet, as he’s hitting .263/.391/.474 through 32 games. That amounts to a wRC+ of 150, easily topping his previous high of 126. That will only add to his appeal on the trade market this summer. With the Cubs sporting a 15-22 record, they’re certainly leaning towards deadline sellers for the time being. The fact that they signed Yan Gomes to a two-year deal in the offseason only increases the odds of Contreras ending up changing jerseys in the coming months. As the catcher himself put it, “The trade rumors, they’re going to come.”

As for other members of the team, Codi Heuer tells Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times that he’s expecting to be out of action until June or July of next year. The 25-year-old righty underwent Tommy John surgery in March, just before the end of the lockout. That puts his recovery right in the usual 12-18 month timeline that is customary for such situations. Acquired from the White Sox as part of the Craig Kimbrel deal, the righty had exactly two years of service time coming into this season, meaning he’ll have exactly three years going into the winter, qualifying him for arbitration for the first time.

Another player in the organization facing an extended absence is prospect Ed Howard, who recently underwent hip surgery following an injury last week. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic relays that the organization is hoping Howard can return by Spring Training next year. “The early prognosis has looked good as far as the comeback,” Hoyer said. “But that’s going to be a comeback after a lot of rehab and a lot of time. I know he’s in good spirits. But he’s got a real road ahead of him and you feel for him.” The 16th overall selection of the 2020 draft, Howard is considered the #8 Cubs prospect by FanGraphs and #20 by Baseball America. This significant injury absence will delay his progress towards the major leagues, though Hoyer says he is expected to make a full recovery.

NL Central Notes: Pirates, Nutting, Crowe, Contreras

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Shortly after signing third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes to an eight-year $70MM extension, Pirates owner Bob Nutting spoke to Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette about the team’s plans moving forward. After applauding the work done by third-year GM Ben Cherington to rebuild the team’s talent pipeline, Nutting stated his belief “that we’ve rebuilt that foundation to the point that now we can really focus on the major league club.” That’s surely welcome news for Pittsburgh fans, who have sat through an arduous rebuilding process that’s included three consecutive fifth place finishes and a bottom-three payroll entering the 2022 season (per Cot’s Contracts).

Of further note, Nutting spoke of the need to look internally and pick “a few key building blocks […] to start building here in Pittsburgh.” It’s already known that the team tried to extend All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds prior to the 2021 season, and have since settled on an arbitration-avoiding pact with the 27-year-old earlier today. Still, with Hayes locked up through his prime years and extensions on the front office’s mind they’ll be hard-pressed to find a better building block than Reynolds. Whether further extension talks take place with Reynolds or other “building blocks”— Mackey suggests breakout reliever David Bednar as one option— remains to be seen, it’s clear the franchise is ready to pivot and secure a division title for the first time since 1992.

Some other news of note from the NL’s central division…

  • We’re only a few games into the new season but the Pirates feel they may have another breakout reliever on their hands, reports Kevin Gorman of Tribune-ReviewSports. After picking up a three-inning save yesterday, the first of his career, converted-starter Wil Crowe extended his streak to seven scoreless innings to open the season. Small sample size caveats are abound here, but it’s clear that the headlining return from 2020’s Josh Bell trade has seen his stuff play up out of the bullpen. After posting a 5.48 ERA across 26 games (25 starts) with below average strikeout numbers last year, Crowe has upped his swinging strike rate and ranks among the early leaders in avoiding hard contact this season.
  • The Cubs and catcher Willson Contreras remain far apart in arbitration talks and it doesn’t appear an agreement will be reached without an arbiter, per NBC Sports’ Gordon Wittenmyer. While a few months remain for both sides to settle on a midpoint between their exchanged figures— Contreras filed at $10.25MM while the Cubs put forth a $9MM offer— a tidy resolution never seemed likely between the club and one of the last members of their 2016 World Series-winning core. The Cubs are a file-and-trial club and take a hard stance on discussing arbitration salaries after the figure-exchanging deadline (this year’s deadline was March 22). When asked if the club would make an exception for Contreras, given his reputation on the team and as one of the league’s better hitting catchers, team president Jed Hoyer replied “That’s not our policy. We went past the deadline.” For his part, Contreras doesn’t seem too bothered by the prospect of an arbitration hearing, noting that he’s “been going through a lot of [criticism] since I was in the minor leagues, and everything they have to say I’ve already heard it”. The 29-year-old Contreras is set to headline a decent free agent catcher market after the season, and while he hasn’t closed the window on lengthening his Cubs tenure he did note his chances of remaining with the team may take a hit once the Cubs allow him to test the market. The two-time All-Star also drew trade interest over the offseason, which may eventually expedite the catcher’s exit from his original organization.

Latest On Willson Contreras

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The Cubs have overhauled a good portion of their roster this winter. Among the most impactful moves was bringing in veteran backstop Yan Gomes — the top catcher in this year’s free agent crop — on a two-year deal prior to the lockout.

That has naturally led to some trade speculation regarding incumbent catcher Willson Contreras, who’s entering his final year of club control. There hasn’t been much firm indication the Cubs have shopped the 29-year-old this winter, but they’d also yet to open talks regarding a possible long-term extension with his representatives as of last week.

Speaking with Bruce Levine of 670 The Score over the weekend, an emotional Contreras acknowledged the possibility he could either be dealt or depart the organization via free agency next winter. “This is something that is really tough for me,” the two-time All-Star said. “Personally, the relationships I have with the team, players and fans, (leaving would) be something that will be really tough to take. This is something very emotional for me, knowing all that I have had to go through to get to this point. It’s going to be really tough and very emotional.”

Levine reports that the Yankees and Padres are among the teams that have checked in with the Cubs to gauge Contreras’ availability, although it’s not clear if any discussions are currently ongoing. Chicago certainly doesn’t have to trade the right-handed backstop, as the implementation of the universal designated hitter could allow manager David Ross to pencil both him and Gomes into the lineup on a regular basis. The Cubs’ fairly active offseason suggests they’re not punting the 2022 campaign entirely, and keeping both players would give the team enviable depth behind the dish and the opportunity to lengthen the overall lineup.

That said, one could argue that having Contreras and Gomes as a 1A/1B tandem between catcher and designated hitter isn’t an optimal deployment of those players. Both are good hitters for catchers, but neither has the kind of offensive track record that’d make them great fits as regular options at the DH spot. Contreras is the better offensive player of the duo, but even he falls a bit shy of the typical output expected from the bat-only position.

Contreras has been an above-average hitter by measure of wRC+ in each of his six career seasons. Going back to the start of 2020, he owns a .239/.345/.429 line, numbers that check in nine percentage points above the league average. That’s markedly better than the .230/.307/.392 figure put up by catchers around the league, but it’s not elite middle-of-the-order output overall. Most American League teams have increasingly preferred to cycle various regulars through the DH spot as quasi-rest days unless they have an excellent bat-only player to plug in. Just seven hitters tallied 300+ plate appearances as a DH last year; of that group, only Miguel Cabrera didn’t outhit Contreras.

While he might not be a great fit for semi-regular DH time, Contreras should hold plenty of appeal to catching-needy teams. The Yankees make an unsurprising possibility after trading away Gary Sánchez. New York is presently slated to roll with Kyle Higashioka and Ben Rortvedt behind the dish. That duo figures to be capable defensively but doesn’t seem likely to come close to Contreras’ production at the plate.

The Padres making a run would be more surprising, as San Diego already has something of a logjam at catcher. Contreras’ price tag could also prove problematic for the Friars. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.7MM salary in his final year of arbitration. That’d come with a matching luxury tax hit, and the Padres already have around $224MM in CBT commitments, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Acquiring Contreras would push the Friars right up against or perhaps past the $230MM base tax threshold, and Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote last week the club would prefer to not surpass the CBT marker for the second straight season.

Aside from Contreras, there don’t seem to be many options for teams looking to upgrade behind the plate before the start of the season. Almost all the free agent options at the position have been signed, and there aren’t any other teams who seem likely to make regulars available in trade. The A’s might entertain the possibility of moving Sean Murphy, but that seems unlikely since he has yet to even reach arbitration eligibility. The trade market may just consist of depth types like Reese McGuire and Jorge Alfaro if the Cubs elect to hold onto Contreras.

Contreras: No Extension Talks Yet With Cubs

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The Cubs have a decision to make regarding Willson Contreras, who’s heading into his final season of club control. Contreras is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary in the $8.7MM range this year. Amidst an organizational reboot, the Chicago front office finds themselves in something of an awkward spot with their longtime catcher.

Chicago signed Yan Gomes, perhaps the best catcher in this year’s free agent class, to a two-year contract in November. That seemed to position Contreras as one of the likeliest trade candidates around the league on-paper, but there’s been no real indication the Cubs have shopped him. That could indicate they’re not looking to move on from Contreras, although they’ve also not yet broached the topic of extending the relationship.

Speaking with reporters (including Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic) yesterday, the 29-year-old backstop said the organization and his reps at Octagon haven’t discussed a potential long-term deal. “No, there haven’t been any talks. I’m good with it” he said. “They know what they’re doing, they know what’s best for the team. I’m here because I love my team. Whatever is going to happen is going to happen.” Contreras went on to indicate he’d be willing to have those discussions. “I’m always open. You know me, I’m not focused on that. I’m focused on having a good year, having fun with my team and trying to win.”

The Cubs stripped down a good portion of the 2016 World Series winning club at last summer’s trade deadline, moving Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Báez. Those departures kicked off what one might consider a new era of Cubs baseball, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer maintained there were no plans for a full rebuild. Hoyer, GM Carter Hawkins and the rest of the front office have largely backed up those assertions this winter. In addition to Gomes, they also signed Marcus Stroman to a three-year deal, added Andrelton Simmons on a one-year pact and claimed Wade Miley off waivers. They don’t seem done, as Hoyer told reporters (including Jesse Rogers of ESPN) this morning they’re still on the hunt for pitching help.

Even in the event the Cubs are trying to hang around the periphery of contention this season, there’s a case to be made for moving Contreras. Gomes is a capable #1 catcher in his own right; getting both players regular reps probably involves Contreras seeing a lot of time at designated hitter. He’s a good hitter, particularly in comparison to his peers at catcher, but he’s not the kind of elite bat for whom teams have been inclined to set aside the DH role.

Contreras has been an above-average hitter by measure of wRC+ in each of his six career seasons. Going back to the start of 2020, he owns a .239/.345/.429 line, numbers that check in nine percentage points above the league average. That’s markedly better than the .230/.307/.392 figure put up by catchers around the league, but it’s not elite middle-of-the-order output overall. Defensively, Contreras has typically been adept at throwing out attempted base-stealers, although he struggled in that regard last season. His pitch framing metrics, per Statcast, have checked in right around the league average over the past two years after he struggled mightily in that regard early in his career.

All told, the Cubs have to decide whether they view Contreras as a potential long-term building block. Recent free agent pickups notwithstanding, they’ve pared back payroll over the past twelve months. With only around $72MM in guaranteed commitments on the books in 2023 (per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource), the flexibility should be there for Chicago if they want to make a run at an extension.

Yet if the Gomes signing signaled a changing of the guard behind the plate on the North Side, Contreras could find himself switching uniforms over the coming weeks. If he doesn’t sign an extension, he’d be on track to hit free agency as one of next winter’s top available catchers — part of a group that could also include Gary Sánchez, Mike Zunino, Christian Vázquez and Max Stassi.

The 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates After The Lockout

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We saw robust free agent activity prior to the December 1st lockout, with 30 of our top 50 free agents signing contracts.  Over $2 billion was committed to 62 players on Major League contracts, by our count.

With all the focus on free agency, the trade market was relatively quiet.  Position players Tucker Barnhart, Adam Frazier, Jacob Stallings, Joey Wendle, Jorge Alfaro, Hunter Renfroe, and Jackie Bradley Jr. were the biggest names on the move.

Though the lockout does not appear close to an end, we can assume it will conclude at some point.  Once that happens, a scramble roughly four-to-six weeks in length seems likely to commence, in which both Spring Training and all remaining offseason transactions will take place.  Aside from the expected free agent frenzy for the top remaining names, the trade market figures to kick heavily into gear.

Recently, I got together with Steve Adams and Anthony Franco to assess the potential trade market.  We wound up putting trade candidates into several buckets.  The first bucket, covered in this post, is simply players we feel are likely to be traded, whether stars or regulars.  One caveat: many of these trade candidates are interconnected.  For example, the A’s are almost certain to trade at least one of Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas, but we don’t expect them to trade all three.  Without further ado, we present MLBTR’s 14 Likeliest Trade Candidates:

1. Matt Olson / 1B / Athletics

The A’s are widely expected to hold a fire sale as a means of reducing their payroll.  Olson, who we project to earn $12MM in 2022 through arbitration, seems highly likely to be dealt.  Olson is controlled for two more years through arbitration.  He provides huge power from the left side and is set to turn 28 in March.  Olson’s 39 home runs were tied for fifth in the AL last year, as was his 146 wRC+.  Olson is not only known for his bat; his defense at first base ranked second in the game in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards.  It’s simply quite rare to find a 5-WAR player with two years of control like Olson available on the trade market; the last decent offseason comparable we can find is when the Marlins traded J.T. Realmuto to the Phillies three years ago.

There aren’t too many teams that couldn’t find a spot for Olson.  He’s probably the one reasonable replacement for Freddie Freeman that Braves fans might find palatable.  The Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Padres, and Giants are other speculative fits, especially if the DH comes to the NL as expected.  The Realmuto trade was led by Sixto Sanchez, considered a 65-grade prospect by Baseball America at the time of the deal.  Teams these days are extremely reluctant to part with prospects of that caliber, who generally fall within the top 30 in the game.  The A’s are in the driver’s seat as they look for the best overall offer.

2.  Matt Chapman / 3B / Athletics

The Matts have been teaming up at the infield corners for the A’s since 2018.  It’s quite possible both could be traded once the lockout ends.  Chapman has consistently been an above average hitter in every year of his MLB career, though in 2021 he was only a tick above average with a 101 wRC+.  In the three seasons prior, Chapman posted a 130 mark, hitting a career-best 36 home runs in 2019.  Combine that level of offense with Chapman’s Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and he was an MVP candidate in 2018-19.  He’ll turn 29 in April.

Chapman’s stellar defense – ranked second in the game at third base in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards – gives him a high floor even if his bat slips like it did in 2021.  Chapman is so good defensively at third base that ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that the Yankees talked internally about the possibility of acquiring him to play shortstop, which he has done for all of ten innings in the Majors.  The result is a player who is worth more than 3 WAR with an average bat, and 6+ when he’s mashing.  A new team would look to solve Chapman’s recent slide in contact and line drives at the plate, but the A’s aren’t selling Chapman quite at his peak.

Like Olson, Chapman is an arbitration eligible player with two more years of control remaining.  We project him to earn $9.5MM in 2022.  The Mariners, Blue Jays, Phillies, Yankees, Rays, Rockies, and Dodgers could be possible landing spots.

3.  Sean Manaea / SP / Athletics

The A’s also have multiple strong trade candidates in their starting rotation.  We’ll start with Manaea, who has only one year of control remaining and is projected to earn $10.2MM through arbitration.  Manaea, a southpaw who recently celebrated his 30th birthday, made 32 starts in 2021 with a 3.91 ERA.  While Manaea has a mid-rotation profile, he did show career-best velocity and his best swinging strike rate in ’21, with his customary excellent control.

After a July 28th gem in San Diego, Manaea had his ERA down at 3.01.  He then posted a brutal 9.90 ERA in August before returning to form in September.  Manaea’s Statcast indicators are not particularly impressive, whether you’re looking at exit velocity or spin rate.

Aside from Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, Manaea is still better than just about every starting pitcher still available in free agency.  He’d benefit many teams’ rotations, including the Tigers, Angels, Twins, Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Nationals.

4.  Chris Bassitt / SP / Athletics

Bassitt, projected to earn $8.8MM in 2022, is yet another A’s trade candidate.  It’s unclear whether the A’s would deal multiple starting pitchers, but again, we wouldn’t rule it out.  Manaea and Bassitt make particular sense because both are headed for free agency after the ’22 season.

Bassitt, a righty, is approaching his 33rd birthday.  Since 2020, he sports a 2.90 ERA in 220 1/3 innings – seventh in all of baseball for those with at least 200 innings in that time.  In 2021, Bassitt’s 18.8 K-BB% was a career best.  Unlike Manaea, Bassitt also boasts above average Statcast indicators, especially an 88th percentile hard-hit percentage.  Whether that’s enough for Bassitt to continue outpitching his SIERA as he has is unknown, but you can’t argue with the results so far.

Bassitt suffered a scary injury in August when a Brian Goodwin line drive struck his face, but fortunately he was able to return for a pair of outings in September.  He should command a higher price on the trade market than Manaea, although the two pitchers are not that far apart in projections for 2022.

Wondering about Frankie Montas?  He’s a trade candidate as well, but we’ve put him into more of a “plausible” bucket than “likely,” and he’ll be covered in an upcoming post by Steve Adams.

5.  Lou Trivino / RP / Athletics

Trivino makes it a quintet of A’s to lead off this post.  The 30-year-old righty is a decent reliever projected to earn $2.9MM in 2022.  He still has three years of control remaining and he’s not making a lot of money yet, but there’s also not a compelling reason for the A’s to hang on to him this offseason.

Trivino posted a 3.18 ERA in 2021, along with a 95.8 mile per hour average fastball velocity and 85th percentile hard-hit rate.  Still, his K-BB% was only 10.6.  After picking up his 21st save against the Giants on August 20th, Trivino’s ERA stood at 1.72.  Then he went through a rough five-outing patch in which he allowed 13 earned runs in only 3 2/3 innings.  After that, Trivino recovered and pitched well in his final 11 outings.

Trivino doesn’t have great control, and he hasn’t always been a strikeout artist either.  So it’s not an amazing profile, but he’s had success at times and is affordable and controllable.  He can fit in somewhere as a seventh or eighth inning reliever.

6.  Craig Kimbrel / RP / White Sox

The Cubs’ June 2019 signing of Kimbrel was going poorly until the 2021 season, when he put up a dominant 0.49 ERA and 46.7 K% in 36 2/3 innings.  The Cubs sold high and shipped Kimbrel across town to the White Sox for Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer.  Kimbrel struggled with the Sox, posting a 5.09 ERA while being done in by the longball.  The White Sox still chose to pick up Kimbrel’s hefty $16MM club option instead of taking a $1MM buyout.  They’ve already got Liam Hendriks in the closer role, and signed Kendall Graveman to a $24MM contract.

As I wrote in December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn spoke openly about trading Kimbrel, saying, “We’ve had conversations with other clubs and have a sense of what is potentially available.” Hahn added, “It’s easy to make the assessment that if you put him back in the closer’s role, it’s what he’s accustomed to and he’s more likely to have success.” I don’t find that to be a particularly reliable assessment: put Kimbrel back in a closer role, and he’ll be good again.  That didn’t prove true for the Cubs in 2019 or 2020.

I think the White Sox would very much like to trade Kimbrel, but they may have overestimated his popularity in the market at his salary.  Perhaps they’ll need to kick in a few million or take a decent-sized contract back to make it more palatable.  I’m not sure if an intra-division trade could be worked out, but the Royals have spoken of trying to upgrade their bullpen.  The Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, and Phillies could make some sense, but only if the money can be worked out and if the White Sox finds a team that actually believes Kimbrel will succeed in ’22.

7.  Kevin Kiermaier / CF / Rays

Kiermaier, 32 in April, has been the Rays’ primary center fielder for the past seven seasons.  He’s picked up three Gold Gloves in that time, and ranked third in the game in the ’21 Fielding Bible Awards.  With the bat, a league average season is generally the best case scenario.  Kiermaier signed a six-year deal with the Rays back in 2017.  He’s owed $12MM this year plus a $2.5MM buyout on a $13MM club option for ’23.

Kiermaier has been involved in trade rumors for years, but this may be the point where the Rays finally pull the trigger.  Baseball America ranks Rays prospect Josh Lowe 44th overall in the game, noting that he plays a plus center field.  Lowe also posted a 142 wRC+ at Triple-A, so he appears ready to take over.  The club can also give center field innings to Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and Vidal Brujan.

Teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Braves, Cubs, Rockies, Marlins, Giants, and Nationals could be potential fits for Kiermaier.

8.  Dominic Smith / LF-1B-DH / Mets

And now we enter the Mets portion of the list.  Smith was the Mets’ primary left fielder in 2021, but they added Mark Canha in free agency.  They’ve also got Pete Alonso locked in at first base and Robinson Cano set to DH.  A Smith-Canha platoon isn’t in the cards, since the Mets aren’t paying Canha $12MM this year to be the short side of one and Smith oddly hit lefties better than righties this year anyway.

There are certainly scenarios where Smith stays put, especially if the club decides they’d rather give him a good share of DH at-bats than Cano.  But, Smith doesn’t really have a spot right now and he posted an 86 wRC+ in 2021.  It’s possible the Mets are ready to move on.

Why would anyone be interested?  Keep in mind that Smith was drafted 11th overall out of high school back in 2013, and prior to the ’17 season was considered a top-70 prospect in the game.  After struggling early in his career, he posted a 150 wRC+ over 396 plate appearances from 2019-20 and crushed both lefties and righties.  He seemed primed for a 30 home run season in ’21.  Instead, Smith spent about three months as a regular in 2021 – May through July.  He had a 111 wRC+ in that time, but around August began sitting against lefties in favor of Kevin Pillar.

Smith is still only 26 years old.  He’s projected to earn $4MM this year and has three years of control remaining.  I think many teams will be interested in giving him regular playing time at left field, first base, or DH.  The Guardians, Rays, Rangers, Cubs, Rockies, Phillies, Pirates, and Padres are a few that come to mind.

9.  J.D. Davis / 3B-LF / Mets

Davis is another Mets player who doesn’t seem to have a spot in 2022.  He split time between left field and third base in 2019 and served as the club’s primary third baseman in 2020.  This year, Davis began as the Mets’ Opening Day third baseman, but spent significant time on the DL for a hand contusion and sprain, which ultimately led to surgery in October.  By August, Davis had fallen behind Jonathan Villar on the team’s third base depth chart.  While Villar is now a free agent, the Mets brought Eduardo Escobar in and he’s penciled in at the hot corner for ’22.  As we mentioned before, the team also imported Canha for left field and may choose to give a lot of DH time to Robinson Cano.

Since Davis came to the Mets in a January 2019 trade with the Astros, all he’s done is hit.  Davis has a 130 wRC+ in 893 plate appearances from 2019-21.  A right-handed hitter, he’s gotten to face lefties a disproportionate amount in that time (34% of his plate appearances), but Davis has handled both lefties and righties well.  It’s worth pointing out that since 2019, Davis’ wRC+ ranks fifth among third basemen, and his work is only a hair behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jose Ramirez.

Aside from health, however, Davis’ defense at both third base and left field has been below-average.  It’s possible he shouldn’t be logging 1,000 innings per year at either position.  On the other hand, we’re likely headed toward a game with 30 DH jobs.  While it’s true that teams generally prefer to use that spot to rotate players these days, the NL DH is undeniably of benefit to a player like Davis.  I’m not sure a contender would install him as a regular third baseman, but the bat certainly plays.

Davis, 29 in April, is projected to earn $2.7MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

10.  Jeff McNeil / 2B-LF-3B-RF / Mets

As the only one who has played second base or right field, McNeil is the most versatile of the three Mets trade candidates listed here.  As such, he’s the least likely to be traded.  In fact, McNeil may end up as the team’s primary starter at second base in 2022.

Still, the Mets felt the need to trade for Javy Baez and play him at second base last summer, and Cano got most of their second base innings in 2019 and ’20.  Escobar is also capable of playing second base.  McNeil could serve in a utility role, but the club does have Luis Guillorme on the roster as well.  It’s not too difficult to picture McNeil being traded, nor would it be surprising if he stays.  Since there is overlap in positions, all three Mets listed here are interconnected.  A trade of one may mean the others are safe.

McNeil started off his Mets career on fire, with a 140 wRC+ in 1,024 plate appearances over 2018-20.  Though that didn’t constitute everyday playing time, he did rank 13th in all of baseball in wRC+ during that period.  A left-handed hitter, McNeil has always beat up on right-handed pitching, but he’s plenty good against southpaws as well.  McNeil is a high-contact hitter, with the game’s tenth-lowest strikeout rate from 2019-21.

Similar to Dominic Smith, McNeil’s bat dropped off late in 2021.  McNeil was placed on the IL in May with a hamstring strain, knocking him out over a month.  He raked in July with a 155 wRC+, but fell to a 68 mark in the season’s final two months.

McNeil doesn’t have a ton of defensive innings at any one position, but his work at second base has been solid and there’s a lot of value in his versatility and bat.  30 in April, McNeil is projected to earn $2.8MM this year and has three years of control remaining.

11.  Willson Contreras / C / Cubs

Contreras wasn’t a heralded prospect until 2016, when he generated buzz before the season and took over the Cubs’ starting catching job.  As a rookie, he was athletic enough to log 180 2/3 innings in left field as well.  Contreras has been an above-average hitter in each of his six seasons, which is especially impressive for a catcher.  Over the last three seasons, his 115 wRC+ ranks second in baseball among all catchers, even ahead of J.T. Realmuto.

Contreras ranked eighth among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards, and his pitch framing has improved from earlier in his career.  WAR is always tricky with catchers.  FanGraphs sees Contreras more in the 2-3 WAR range per year, while Baseball-Reference has more 3-4 WAR type seasons on his ledger.

The 29-year-old Contreras is one of the last remaining players from the Cubs’ 2016 championship club, along with Kyle Hendricks, Jason Heyward, and manager David Ross.  The Cubs have been unable or unwilling to extend Contreras, who is set to make around $8.7MM this year before hitting free agency.  Before the lockout, the Cubs signed Yan Gomes to a two-year, $13MM deal, giving the club insurance in the event they decide to trade Contreras.  At least, Contreras seemed to take it that way.

On the other hand, the Cubs struggled last year to find a decent backup catcher, and Gomes could help reduce Contreras’ workload.  The Cubs have also supplemented the 2021 club with the pickups of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley, so the team has at least some aim on contending.  A Contreras trade is not guaranteed, although it will be a seller’s market for catchers when the lockout ends.  A midseason trade is a possibility as well.  The Yankees, Guardians, Mariners, Rangers, and Giants could be potential suitors.

12.  Sonny Gray / SP / Reds

Gray, 32, was able to increase his strikeout rate significantly after coming over to the Reds from the Yankees in a January 2019 trade.  He made the All-Star team and finished seventh in the NL Cy Young voting in ’19.  His underlying skills haven’t changed a ton since then, but his batting average on balls in play returned to normal and in 2021, more home runs left the yard.

Gray tossed 135 1/3 innings in 2021, spending time on the IL for back spasms, a groin strain, and a rib cage strain.  Still, after a fine July 7th start in Kansas City, Gray had his ERA down to 3.19.  He put up a 5.03 ERA in his final 14 starts to finish the season at 4.19, his worst mark in a Reds uniform.

Gray is under contract for $10MM this year, with a $12MM club option for 2023 that will likely merit consideration.  He seems to represent the clearest path for the Reds to cut payroll; we’ll be addressing rotation-mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle in a separate post.

The Reds have shown recently with the Raisel Iglesias trade and Wade Miley waiver claim that under pressure to slash salary, they can give up good players for little to no return.  Quite a few teams are likely eyeing up Gray with this in mind.

13.  Jake Odorizzi / SP / Astros

Last March, with Framber Valdez fracturing a finger on his throwing hand, the Astros made a late deal for Odorizzi.  After signing late, Odorizzi made his Astros debut on April 13th.   Weeks later, he hit the IL with a right pronator muscle strain that knocked him out for over a month.  In September, Odorizzi expressed frustration after being pulled from a start after only 66 pitches.  In the following start, he exited early with a foot injury.  Though he did return in the regular season, Odorizzi was left off the Astros’ ALDS roster.

Heading into 2022, the Astros have seven healthy starting pitchers, and Odorizzi probably ranks last on that depth chart.  32 in March, Odorizzi is owed only $5MM this year.  He has a $6.5MM player option for 2023 with a $3.25MM buyout.

Odorizzi has significant contract incentives for 2022: $500K for 100 innings pitched, and then $1MM each at the 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 inning marks plus $1.25MM at 160 innings.  You can imagine he won’t be excited to serve as the Astros’ long man to open the season.  The Astros might need to kick in some money or take back a contract, but Odorizzi can still help quite a few teams in the middle or back of their rotation.

14.  Luke Voit / 1B-DH / Yankees

Voit is currently projected to start at first base for the Yankees.  However, there’s a decent chance they’ll seek an upgrade, whether that’s bringing Anthony Rizzo back, trading for Matt Olson, or even signing Freddie Freeman.

Though Voit hasn’t been able to maintain the dizzying heights of 2018 (188 wRC+ in 161 PA) or 2020 (153 wRC+ in 234 PA), the problem has been more health than production.  This year, Voit appeared in only 68 games due to knee surgery, an oblique strain, and a bone bruise and inflammation in his knee.  He had four separate IL stints, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

With Giancarlo Stanton signed through 2027, the Yankees might not be a good home for Voit, who might have an easier time staying healthy with regular DH time.  We project Voit to earn $5.4MM this year.  He fits with Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis on the trade market: an interesting bat without an ideal defensive home.

If you’re wondering where a certain player was on this list, don’t worry!  We’ve got all sorts of additional trade candidate posts on the way.

Looking For A Match In A Willson Contreras Trade

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Over the past year, the Cubs have sent a lot of good players out the door on their way to slashing payroll and starting a new rebuild. Yu Darvish, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Craig Kimbrel and more. But one of the key pieces of their recent competitive window remains. Despite occasional rumors that he was being shopped around, Willson Contreras is still a Cub. The backstop will be eligible for arbitration for a third and final time this winter, a season in which the Cubs are unlikely to be competitive, given their recent sell-off. That means they would be wise to commit to one of two paths, either extending him or trading him.

When choosing between the two paths, however, something that might tip the scales is the weak free agent crop of catchers this offseason. With such a low supply of catchers available, teams might have to turn to trades if they want to upgrade behind the plate. That could make Contreras a hot commodity, given his solid track record. Across the past six seasons, Contreras has a line of .259/349/.458, for a wRC+ of 114, producing 12 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. Only five catchers in baseball produced more fWAR over that span. (Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto, Buster Posey Mike Zunino and Gary Sanchez.) Contreras has also been remarkably consistent in that time, with his wRC+ falling between 101 and 126 each year, and his fWAR always between 0.7 and 2.7.

Financially speaking, he won’t be prohibitively expensive. His 2021 salary was $6.65MM. He will get a raise on that through arbitration, probably to the $10MM range, approximately half of what Grandal, Realmuto and Posey are making per year on their current contracts.

As to who would be interested in acquiring him, it would have to be a team with a need behind the plate, of course. But given that he only has one year of control, it would also have to be a win-now club. Let’s look at which teams could fit the bill.

Cleveland: Roberto Perez can be controlled for 2022 with a club option valued at $7MM. However, he’s now two years removed from his excellent 2019 season. Since then, he’s only played 76 games due to various injuries and hit .155/.253/.277 for a wRC+ of 49. Austin Hedges got 85 starts at catcher this year and hit just .178/.220/.308 for a wRC+ of 40. There’s certainly room for improvement on that kind of production. The club also has maximum payroll flexibility. Once they exercise their $11MM club option on Jose Ramirez, that will bring their total 2022 payroll commitments up to the range of… $11MM. Bringing in Contreras along with a few free agents, and then having some better health in the rotation, 2022 could see the club easily surpass their 80-82 record from this year.

Mariners: After surprising the baseball world with a 90-win campaign, the Mariners have seemingly moved beyond rebuilding and into competing. In 2021, they gave playing time to Luis Torrens, Tom Murphy and Cal Raleigh, none of whom ran away with the job. Murphy had a tremendous season in the shortened 2019 but couldn’t replicate it in 2021. He hit .202/.304/.350 this year, for a wRC+ of 87 and 1.0 fWAR. Torrens was better with the bat but was mostly being used as a designated hitter down the stretch. Raleigh has decent defensive numbers but hit a paltry .180/.223/.309 for a wRC+ of 47. Mariners’ president Jerry Dipoto recently spoke about adding more offense for 2022 and has a trade-happy reputation. Going after Contreras could be one way to add some more thump to Seattle’s lineup.

Red Sox: In 2021, Boston split the catching duties between Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki, both of whom were okay but not great. Vazquez hit .258/.308/.352, wRC+ of 77. Plawecki’s line was .287/.308/.389, wRC+ of 102. They each produced 0.5 fWAR. Both of them have one year of team control left, as Plawecki is going into his final arbitration year whereas the Red Sox have a $7MM club option on Vazquez. Contreras would be an upgrade for the 2022 season and could help bridge the gap to younger catchers like Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez.

Rockies: The Rockies gave most of their 2021 catching starts to Elias Diaz, who had a sudden power breakout. Coming into this year, he had 15 home runs in 273 career games. In 2021, he had 18 dingers in 106 games. Despite this power surge, he still only put up a wRC+ of 92, partially because of playing his home games at Coors. (wRC+ controls for ballpark factors.) Dom Nunez was the primary backup to Diaz, and he put up a line of .189/.293/.399, which adds up to a wRC+ of just 69. Contreras could easily provide a boost to this tandem, if the club thinks it’s in win-now mode, which they apparently do.

Yankees: It’s become an annual tradition for people to debate whether or not the Yankees will stick with Gary Sanchez. His tremendous early years have seemed too tantalizing to give up on, even as he’s struggled more recently. In 2021, he was competent enough, hitting .204/.307/.423, producing a wRC+ of 99 and 1.5 fWAR. Like Contreras, he is going into his final arbitration season, and will be due a raise on a salary of $6.35MM. Could the Yankees be willing to swap him out for a catcher with a similar payout but more consistent production?

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