Willson Contreras Is Thriving For The Red Sox
The 2025-26 offseason didn’t have a defining blockbuster like the Kyle Tucker trade in 2024-25 or the Juan Soto deal the winter before. However, what the trade market lacked in top-end quality, it made up for in quantity, with no shortage of big names switching teams. The Cardinals were arguably the top sellers, dealing away Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras, while the Red Sox were one of the most active buyers, picking up Gray and Contreras, along with Caleb Durbin and Johan Oviedo. It’s still too early to crown any winners of the offseason’s trades, but so far, Contreras is looking like one of the best pickups of the winter. Things aren’t going so well for the Red Sox right now, but adding the slugging first baseman is looking like one thing they definitely did right.
Through 50 games, Contreras is hitting .281 with 11 home runs and 33 RBI. His .899 OPS, .393 wOBA, and 148 wRC+ all put him among the AL’s top 10 qualified hitters. His .397 expected wOBA ranks fifth, trailing only Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Ben Rice. For what it’s worth, his glove has also looked sharper in his sophomore season at first base. In 2025, he finished with -1 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a +4 Fielding Run Value (FRV). This year, he has a +3 DRS and a +4 FRV in less than half as many innings. The result of it all is 2.0 Wins Above Replacement, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. That’s All-Star-caliber production, although fellow first basemen Rice, Nick Kurtz, and Munetaka Murakami will give Contreras tough competition when it comes to making this summer’s AL All-Star squad.
All-Star or not, there is no overstating how important Contreras has been to an otherwise floundering Red Sox offense. He leads the team in home runs, RBI, Win Probability Added, OPS, wRC+, and fWAR. Red Sox Nation held its collective breath earlier this month when Nick Martinez hit Contreras on the hand with a fastball, forcing him out of the game. Luckily, Contreras avoided any sort of serious injury. On the contrary, he’s hit .349 with a 1.061 OPS and a 190 wRC+ in 11 games since. It’s safe to say his hand is feeling just fine.
Contreras has never played more than 138 games in a season or taken more than 563 trips to the plate. That’s partly because he used to be a catcher and partly because he found himself on the injured list 10 times in the first 10 years of his career. This year, he and the Red Sox are hoping he can avoid the IL entirely for the first time in a full season since 2018. If he can, he’s on track to blow past his previous career-highs in almost every counting stat category, including home runs, runs scored, and RBI. Of course, the rate stats are impressive too; his OPS, wRC+, and xwOBA would also be the best of his career. If Contreras keeps going at this pace, he’ll finish with just over 6.0 Wins Above Replacement, according to both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference models. That would be far and away the highest total of his big league tenure.
Most players never have the privilege to say they were at their best in their mid-thirties. Indeed, in the last decade, only three position players have had a six-win season at age 34 or older, whether by fWAR or bWAR: Paul Goldschmidt in 2022, Brandon Crawford in 2021, and Adrian Beltré in 2016. Meanwhile, Crawford is the only hitter in the 21st century to have his first six-win season at age 34 or older. Contreras is hoping to join him.
Admittedly, it’s dangerous to extrapolate 50 games’ worth of production over a full season. Contreras has played at a six-win pace over his last 50 games, but the 10 seasons and 1,000-plus games he played before this year are probably more representative of his true talent. Besides, the aging curve tells us he’s much more likely to be worse at age 34 than he is to be better than ever. Yet, it’s more fun to be optimistic, and there are some pretty compelling reasons to believe Contreras can keep this up.
For one thing, he isn’t catching anymore. Hopefully, that should help him remain stronger and healthier throughout the rest of the season. The underlying offensive data is also incredibly promising. Over the first nine years of his career, Contreras had a pull-air rate of 13.3% (per Statcast). Then, in 2025, he increased his pull-air rate to nearly 20%. It was the first time in his career that he hit balls in the air to his pull side at a better-than-average rate. This season, his pull-air rate is up again. Just over a quarter of all his balls in play have been pulled in the air.
Here’s why that matters. The league-average wOBA on balls in play typically hovers around .360 to .370. When those balls in play are pulled in the air, that wOBA rises to the .730 to .740 range. What’s more, Contreras has always been particularly successful with this type of contact. His .874 career wOBA on pulled balls in the air puts him in the league’s 92nd percentile. The majority of hitters will succeed when they pull the ball in the air consistently, and Contreras can benefit more than most. His excellent numbers so far in 2026 are the proof.
What makes this development even more encouraging for Contreras is that his swing speed is still elite. Generally speaking, bat speed starts to decline precipitously when a player reaches his thirties. Those older hitters sometimes increase their pull rate, which temporarily helps to cover for their declining strength. That’s not what’s going on for Contreras, at least not in any significant way. His average bat speed on non-pulled contact is down a bit, though it’s still well above league average. Meanwhile, his bat speed on pulled contract is slightly higher than it was through May of last year (or the year before). Because he’s pulling more of his contact overall, his average swing speed is right in line with where it’s been the last two years. Out of 218 qualified swingers, only 14 have a higher average swing speed than Contreras. He may be 34, but he’s swinging like a much younger man.
Simply put, there’s no question Contreras has earned his success to date. He may not keep hitting at quite this level over the next four months, but he’s already given himself a strong head start. As long as he stays healthy, there’s a very good chance this ends up as the best season of an already highly successful career.
Images courtesy of Bob DeChiara and Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.
AL East Notes: Contreras, Suarez, Barger, Rogers, Cole
X-rays were negative on Willson Contreras‘ right hand after the Red Sox first baseman was hit by a 94mph pitch from Nick Martinez. The bruised hand forced Contreras out of the game after the first inning, and Sox interim manager Chad Tracy told reporters (including the Boston Globe’s Tim Healey) that it isn’t yet known if Contreras will undergo an MRI or more in-depth testing. The Red Sox don’t play on Monday, so Tracy said the team will use the off-day to “kind of reevaluate and see how he feels.”
Contreras is off to a flying start in his first season in Boston, hitting .259/.380/.467 with eight homers through 166 plate appearances. The veteran first baseman has been one of the few bright spots in an underachieving Red Sox lineup, so the offense will be further hampered if Contreras has to spend any time on the injured list.
More from around the AL East…
- In other Red Sox news, Tracy said the teams plans to start Ranger Suarez on Thursday against the Phillies, Suarez’s former team. Suarez hasn’t pitched since a hamstring strain forced him out of his last start on May 3, but it appears as though the left-hander has avoided the injured list. After something of a dicey start to the season, Suarez has a sparking 1.17 ERA over his last five starts and 30 2/3 innings.
- Just one game after being activated from the Blue Jays‘ 10-day injured list, Addison Barger was scratched from today’s lineup and will undergo an MRI on his right elbow, Jays manager John Schneider told Sportsnet and other media. The elbow issue may have arisen from Barger’s tremendous throw from right field that nabbed Jorge Soler at the plate in Saturday’s game. That contest was just Barger’s ninth game of the season, as an ankle sprain sidelined the outfielder/third baseman for over a month.
- Trevor Rogers won’t come off the 15-day IL when first eligible tomorrow, but the left-hander believes he could be back Tuesday or Wednesday during the rest of the Orioles’ series with the Yankees. Rogers was placed on the IL while dealing with a rough case of the flu, and he told MLB.com’s Jake Rill that he doesn’t believe he’ll need a rehab start after throwing a “simulated bullpen” session on Saturday. In another Baltimore injury update, Heston Kjerstad started a minor rehab league assignment this weekend. The outfielder has yet to play this season due to a hamstring strain suffered in Spring Training.
- Gerrit Cole allowed two earned runs on four hits and a walk over five innings in today’s rehab start with Double-A Somerset. Cole recorded eight strikeouts over the 77-pitch outing, which was the fifth start of Cole’s rehab assignment. Greg Joyce of the New York Post writes that Cole is expected to make one or two more rehab starts before being activated from the Yankees’ injured list, which would make it a little over 14 month since Cole underwent a Tommy John surgery in March 2025.
Red Sox Notes: Contreras, Casas, Rafaela
The Red Sox landed an impact bat in Willson Contreras on Sunday. The longtime catcher made the move to first base last season, and that’s expected to stick in Boston. “We see him primarily at first base, maybe some DH opportunities. But the more that we can get his bat in the lineup, the better off we’re going to be,” chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters, including Sean McAdam of MassLive.com.
Contreras bounced around a bit when he first came up with the Cubs, even logging innings at third base and the corner outfield spots, but spent the majority of his time behind the plate. He served as Chicago’s primary catcher from 2017 through 2021. Conteras split his time fairly equally between catcher and DH in 2022. He went to St. Louis in 2023 and continued to play both catcher and DH somewhat evenly. The Cardinals changed course this past season, slotting Contreras in as their primary first baseman. He also made the occasional start at DH.
Heading into 2025, Contreras only had 11 career appearances at first base. He made 119 starts at the position this past season. Contreras delivered fine to solid defensive results, depending on the metric. Outs Above Average looked favorably on Contreras, with a +4 grade. Defensive Runs Saved wasn’t as kind at -1. Given Contreras’ significant contributions as a hitter, Boston will likely be fine with close to average defensive numbers. The 33-year-old has posted a wRC+ of at least 124 in four straight seasons.
Boston has Carlos Narvaez and Connor Wong penciled in as its two backstops. Narvaez had just six games of big-league experience when he was dealt from the Yankees to the Red Sox last offseason. He emerged as a reliable offensive contributor, hitting 15 home runs and slashing .241/.306/.419 across 118 appearances. Wong fell off significantly after a strong 2024. He failed to get on track at the plate after missing most of April with a broken finger. Wong has shown enough in the past to be relied on as a backup heading into next season, and it seems he’ll maintain that role if Boston isn’t interested in playing Contreras at the position.
The Contreras addition immediately puts Triston Casas‘ role into question. For his part, Breslow expressed optimism about Casas’ outlook. “We still have a ton of confidence and belief in Triston. What he needs to do is commit to doing everything possible to get back on the field. He’s doing that right now,” Breslow said, relayed by Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Casas is currently recovering from a ruptured patellar tendon that cost him most of 2025. His status for the start of next season is uncertain.
Casas has frequently come up in trade rumors this offseason, even before Boston acquired Contreras. The fact that the team added a player at his position could increase the chances he’s on the move. The main inhibitor toward a potential deal is Casas’ recent performance, both in terms of production and health. He hit just .182 over 29 games before going down with the knee injury. Casas was better in 2024, but also spent three months on the injury list with a rib strain.
It’s not just Contreras pushing Casas, either. Boston has another DH option in Masataka Yoshida, who’s been squeezed out of the outfield mix by Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, and Ceddanne Rafaela. Wilyer Abreu also performed well last year, mostly against right-handed pitching. Breslow didn’t sound overly concerned about the potential roster glut. “Those things tend to work out. (It’s an) opportunity to keep everybody fresh, to keep everybody involved and engaged at the same time.”
Sliding Rafaela to the infield could help alleviate some of the roadblocks for Casas and the young outfielders, but that isn’t the current intention of the club. “We’re a better team with Ceddanne in center field, and we’ll try to keep (him) there,” Breslow said, per Ari Alexander of 7News Boston WHDH. Rafaela earned a Gold Glove in center field this past season.
After splitting his time between shortstop and center field in 2024, Rafaela was primarily on the grass this past season. He made 19 starts at second base, but the rest of his appearances came in the outfield. Rafaela was one of the most impactful defenders at any position in 2025. He tied for second with Alejandro Kirk in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value metric. Patrick Bailey was the only player to be more productive as a defender.
Second base is an area of need for the Red Sox at the moment. If the season started today, Boston would likely be rolling with an uninspiring platoon of Romy Gonzalez and Nick Sogard at the position. Kristian Campbell could factor into that mix, though he’ll need to show more in the minors to earn another big-league opportunity.
Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images
MLBTR Podcast: Three-Way Trade, Murakami’s Short-Term Deal, And Willson Contreras To Boston
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Pirates getting Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum and Mason Montgomery for Mike Burrows in a three-team trade with the Astros and Rays (Recorded prior to the news of the Pirates agreeing to a deal with Ryan O’Hearn) (1:10)
- The Astros trading away Jacob Melton and Anderson Brito to get Burrows (10:10)
- The Rays trading away Lowe, Mangum and Montgomery for Melton and Brito, in addition to trading Shane Baz to the Orioles for four prospects and a draft pick (13:30)
- The Orioles giving up four prospects and a draft pick to get Baz (19:05)
- The White Sox signing Munetaka Murakami (25:40)
- The Red Sox acquiring Willson Contreras from the Cardinals (45:40)
- The Padres re-signing Michael King (54:35)
- The Athletics acquiring Jeff McNeil from the Mets (58:55)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Mets Sign Jorge Polanco, And The Braves, Blue Jays And Royals Make Moves – listen here
- Winter Meetings Recap – listen here
- An Agent’s Perspective with B.B. Abbott – Also, Cease, Williams, Helsley, And Gray – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images
Red Sox Acquire Willson Contreras
Less than a month after landing Sonny Gray, the Red Sox have acquired another prominent veteran talent from St. Louis. Boston has landed first baseman Willson Contreras and $8MM in cash considerations from the Cardinals in exchange for a package of three right-handed pitchers — Hunter Dobbins and prospects Yhoiker Fajardo and Blake Aita.
Contreras and his agents at Octagon negotiated an extra $1MM bonus for Contreras to approve the trade, as the veteran’s contract includes a full no-trade clause. The final two guaranteed seasons of Contreras’ contract and the club option on his services for 2028 have been slightly reworked, so he’ll now receive $18MM in 2026, $17MM in 2027, and the Red Sox hold a $20MM club option on his services in 2028, with a $7.5MM buyout. (The previous terms included salaries of $18MM and $18.5MM in 2026-27, plus a $5MM buyout on a 2028 club option valued at$17.5MM.)
The final accounting works out to $42.5MM in guaranteed money for Contreras over the remainder of his deal. Factoring in the Cardinals’ $8MM contribution, Boston’s commitment to Contreras is $34.5MM in salary, and his luxury tax number is $17.25MM.
When the Cards were first exploring a rebuild last winter, neither Contreras or Gray was open to waiving their no-trade protection. After a lackluster 78-84 season sent the Cards more firmly looking towards the future, Gray, Contreras, and Nolan Arenado (who blocked a deal to the Astros last winter) all indicated in recent months that they were more open to accepting a trade.
In Contreras’ case, he cracked the door open at the end of season by saying that “if something comes up…and it makes sense for me and my future, how about we talk about that?” Contreras said. The first baseman stressed that he was still eager to contribute as a veteran leader within the Cardinals’ rebuild, though reports emerged a few weeks ago that Contreras was showing an increased willingness to waive his no-trade clause and move on to a new challenge.
Contreras (who turns 34 in May) ends his St. Louis tenure with a .261/.358/.459 slash line and 55 home runs over 1416 plate appearances from 2023-25. Signed to a five-year, $87.5MM free agent deal back in December 2022, the idea was that Contreras would take over from Yadier Molina as the team’s regular catcher, yet in somewhat awkward fashion, the Cardinals reduced Contreras’ playing time behind the plate and used him regularly as a DH. Heading into the 2025 season, Contreras became a full-time first baseman, returning to a position he’d played only a handful of times earlier in his career with the Cubs. The Outs Above Average metric gave Contreras a positive +6 grade for his first base work in 2025, but he also received -1 Defensive Runs Saved.
Regardless, it would seem like Contreras is at least a passable defender at the cold corner, and the Red Sox can live with only so-so defense as long as the former All-Star continues to hit. Contreras batted .257/.344/.447 with 20 home runs over 563 PA in 2025, translating to a 124 wRC+. A career-low 7.8% walk rate was a concern and Contreras has always been prone to strikeouts, but he continued to make consistently hard and productive contact. Contreras is a right-handed batter, which helps balance out a Boston lineup that tilts to the left side.
Contreras’ final four seasons in Chicago overlapped with Craig Breslow‘s time working in the Cubs’ front office, before Breslow was hired to take over Boston’s baseball operations department following the 2023 season. Breslow’s tenure has thus far been defined by significant trades, ranging from the deals that brought Gray, Garrett Crochet, and now Contreras to Fenway Park, and last June’s surprising move that sent Rafael Devers to the Giants.
One of the many factors involved in the Devers trade was Devers’ displeasure over being asked to move to first base in the wake of Triston Casas‘ season-ending knee surgery in early May. While Romy Gonzalez and deadline pickup Nathaniel Lowe helped fill the first base void, there was little doubt the Sox were going to address the position in a larger fashion this winter. Pete Alonso, Isaac Paredes, Kazuma Okamoto, Munetaka Murakami, and Bryce Eldridge were among the first base candidates on Boston’s radar on the free agent and trade fronts this winter, and Cotillo reported last week that Contreras was another name under consideration.
With Contreras now in the fold, a Casas trade now looks increasingly likely. Casas has been floated in trade talks even dating back to last winter and prior to his knee surgery, and despite his injury-shortened season, rival clubs figure to have interest in the former top prospect. Conversely, if the Sox could figure out a way to dump Masataka Yoshida‘s contract, Casas could share first base/DH duties with Contreras.
Adding a first baseman solves another piece of Boston’s infield puzzle, and turns a position from a weak link into a strength. The Red Sox remain linked to such other major infield names as Bo Bichette or old friend Alex Bregman, and Contreras’ $36MM price tag shouldn’t prevent the Sox from spending big on either of those names, even considering Boston’s recent wariness about major financial commitments. Trading an outfielder could further shake up the position-player mix, and there have been consistent rumors about the possibility of the Sox moving an outfielder for pitching.
The Red Sox entered the winter with a lot of pitching depth in terms of young arms, yet were lacking proven frontline hurlers that could join Crochet and Brayan Bello in the rotation. Gray was one answer, and fellow trade pickup Johan Oviedo could be another after Oviedo was acquired from the Pirates. This has made Breslow more comfortable in trading from further down his pitching depth chart, and after moving Richard Fitts and prospect Brandon Clarke to St. Louis for Gray, Breslow has now parted ways with Dobbins, Fajardo, and Aida.
The equation has been pretty simple for Breslow. The CBO has been willing to move some (i.e. Jhostynxon Garcia, Kyle Teel) of Boston’s more highly-touted prospects while hanging onto the likes of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kristian Campbell, and also moving some pitchers that no longer seem to be in Boston’s plans. In Dobbins’ case, he isn’t even going to be available for the Cardinals’ Opening Day roster, as the righty tore his right ACL last July. This was the second right ACL tear Dobbins has endured, plus he has a Tommy John surgery on his checkered health history.
Dobbins made his MLB debut in 2025, and posted a 4.13 ERA, 6.6% walk rate, and 17.6% strikeout rate over his first 61 innings in the Show. An eighth round pick for the Sox in the 2021 draft, Dobbins is more of grounder-heavy pitcher than a big strikeout arm, but his slider and curveball have good whiff rates as complements to his 95.5mph fastball. Significant questions remain about Dobbins’ durability, but the 26-year-old right-hander has less than a year of MLB service time and now projects to be a longer-term add to the St. Louis rotation.
Cardinals president of baseball ops Chaim Bloom is plenty familiar with Dobbins, as Bloom was running Boston’s front office when Dobbins came into the organization. Interestingly, of the five pitchers obtained by the Cardinals in the Contreras and Gray trades, Dobbins is the only one who was part of Boston’s organization when Bloom was still there.
Fitts and (when healthy) Dobbins can factor in the Cardinals’ rotation picture as early as 2026. Dobbins doesn’t at all fit Bloom’s desire to add another veteran arm to the rotation, yet finding an innings-eater is a short-term goal, whereas Dobbins is part of the bigger picture. That has been the story of this offseason in St. Louis, as with Bloom now fully installed atop the decision-making pyramid, the Cardinals are embarking on the rebuild they considered but then backed away from last winter.
Trading Contreras removes another big chunk of salary from the Cards’ books. An Arenado deal could be the next step, though that trade will be trickier due to both Arenado’s salary and the fact that (unlike Contreras or Gray) Arenado is coming off a rough 2025 season. Other players like Brendan Donovan and JoJo Romero have also been regularly mentioned in trade rumors. One player St. Louis wasn’t very willing to move is Alec Burleson, who now looks to step right into the everyday first base role with Contreras gone.
Fajardo was an international signing for the White Sox in 2024, and he has now been traded twice before his 20th birthday. Fajardo changed his Sox when Chicago sent him Boston a year ago in the Cam Booser trade, and the righty had a 2.25 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate, and a 9.4% walk rate over 72 innings in rookie ball and with A-level Salem in 2025. MLB Pipeline ranked Fajardo 23rd on their ranking of the top 30 Red Sox prospects, describing the teenager as “a potential mid-rotation starter” whose four-seam fastball can hit 97mph.
Aita was a sixth-round pick for the Red Sox in the 2024 draft. His first pro season saw the 22-year-old right-hander post a 3.98 ERA in 115 1/3 combined innings in Salem and at high-A Greenville, with a 21.4% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. As per Geoff Pontes of Baseball America, Aita technically has a five-pitch arsenal but he rarely throws his slider. Aita’s fastball is in the 92-93mph range but with plenty of movement, and there’s also a lot of movement and spin on his sweeper and cutter.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan (multiple links) was the first to report that Contreras was going to Boston for Dobbins and multiple minor league pitchers, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal later identifying Fajardo and Aita. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported the detail of Contreras’ $1MM bonus for waiving his no-trade clause. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo reported the $8MM heading from St. Louis to Boston, and Cotillo and The Athletic’s Katie Woo had the details on the reworked money in Contreras’ contract.
Inset picture courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing — Imagn Images
Red Sox Showing Interest In Willson Contreras
After missing out on both Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber, the Red Sox continue to pursue upgrades for their lineup. One target they’re recently looked into, according to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo, is Cardinals first baseman Willson Contreras.
Of course, the Red Sox and Cardinals already completed one trade sending a notable veteran to Boston; right-hander Sonny Gray was traded to the Sox in exchange for righty Richard Fitts and minor league lefty Brandon Clarke earlier in the offseason. (The Cardinals included $20MM in cash to help facilitate the swap.) Like Gray, Contreras is a veteran on a pricey contract with a full no-trade clause who St. Louis would like to move in order to clear payroll and create opportunities for younger players.
However, while Gray was very clear about his willingness to waive his no-trade clause this winter, Contreras has been more on the fence. The catcher-turned-first-baseman said at season’s end that he would consider certain scenarios but preferred to remain in St. Louis. Contreras has reportedly warmed a bit to the idea of approving a trade as the offseason has progressed, but he’s still going to be particular about his potential destination. It’s not yet clear to which teams Contreras would be willing to approve a trade, but he’d presumably prefer a contender. Boston clearly checks that box.
The fit in Boston is a natural one. First base was a question mark throughout the 2025 season. Young slugger Triston Casas struggled through a cold spell for the first three weeks and then suffered a season-ending knee injury just as he was beginning to show signs of emerging from that slump. Boston turned to Romy Gonzalez, Abraham Toro and eventual free agent pickup Nathaniel Lowe for much of the season. Gonzalez thrived against left-handed pitching but was below-average against righties, as is typical for him. Toro struggled and was eventually outrighted off the roster. Lowe performed decently down the stretch but was non-tendered due to a hefty arbitration price and a poor four months to begin the season.
Acquiring Contreras, who’s batted .256/.356/.461 (130 wRC+) across the past four seasons, would add an everyday option to the lineup and allow Gonzalez to be deployed in more of a utility role. Though he’s new to first base, Contreras made a smooth transition to the position in 2025. The longtime catcher had a poor defensive reputation behind the dish but turned in solid marks for his glovework at his new defensive home. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric pegged him as a positive defender (+6), and Defensive Runs Saved had him as a nearly average defender (-1). Those numbers could feasibly improve a bit as he takes even more reps at the position.
Contreras is earning $36.5MM over the next two seasons and has a $5MM buyout on a $17.5MM club option for the 2028 season. That remaining $41.5MM in guaranteed money is roughly in line with market value — at least in terms of average annual value — for a first baseman who’ll turn 34 next May. Christian Walker landed a three-year, $60MM contract covering his age-34 through age-36 seasons just last winter, for instance.
For the Red Sox, the $20.75MM in remaining AAV would put them over the luxury tax threshold, though given their pursuit of so many notable free agents and trade targets, that doesn’t seem like it’ll be a big impediment this time around. If the Sox don’t want to go too far beyond the tax line, the Cardinals’ inclusion of $20MM in the Gray trade shows a clear willingness to pay down salary in exchange for a better return. Those prior talks surely gave both parties an idea of which remaining players in Boston’s system would be of interest. And while it may not be a deciding factor in Contreras’ decision, the familiarity of having former teammates like Gray and Aroldis Chapman already on the roster could be somewhat of a perk.
Mets Interested In Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar
The Mets have grabbed headlines for the moves they haven’t made this offseason, namely watching Pete Alonso sign with Baltimore and Edwin Diaz head to Los Angeles. The club is actively working to add on the offensive side, though, with the Cardinals as a potential trade partner. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports the Mets have interest in outfielder Lars Nootbaar, while John Denton of MLB.com reports New York reached out about Willson Contreras.
Neither Contreras nor Nootbaar would replace the Alonso-sized void in the lineup, but both would fill holes in the roster. Contreras could slot right into Alonso’s vacated spot at first base, while Nootbaar would help cover the gap left by Brandon Nimmo, who was dealt to the Rangers.
Contreras and Nootbaar are just a couple of the many Cardinals popping up in trade conversations. Brendan Donovan is drawing widespread interest. JoJo Romero has intrigued several teams. Nolan Arenado has been a trade candidate for multiple seasons. Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson have been mentioned as possibly getting moved. Despite the interest around the league, nothing materialized during the Winter Meetings. “To some degree, it’s binary — either you have something or you don’t. Right now, we don’t,” president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom told reporters.
As Anthony Franco pointed out in this piece about replacing Alonso (Front Office subscription required), Contreras would be the most straightforward fit in the trade market. He has a no-trade clause, but is reportedly open to waiving it. Contreras is under contract for the next two seasons, with a club option for 2028. He’s slated to make $18MM next season and $18.5MM in 2027. The price tag isn’t exorbitant for his level of production, but it might be too costly for the rebuilding Cardinals to keep around.
Contreras has been a firmly above-average bat in his three seasons with St. Louis. He’s posted a wRC+ of at least 124 in each campaign. Contreras has a pair of 20-homer campaigns as a Cardinal, and the lone miss was his most productive year with the team. He hit 15 home runs in just 84 games in 2024, but a broken finger ended his season in late June.
The 33-year-old Contreras hasn’t missed a beat as he’s entered his 30s. His profile has arguably looked even better under the hood in recent years. Contreras posted a career-high 49% hard-hit rate this past season. He ranked 95th percentile in bat speed. Contreras has been one of the hardest swingers in the game since bat speed data became widely available.
The Nootbaar fit isn’t as seamless, largely due to availability. The outfielder had surgery on both heels in October and may miss the beginning of the 2026 season. The procedure may have already removed one team from contention for Nootbaar’s services. Replacing Nimmo’s strong on-base skills and steady all-around production will be difficult, but so will finding another option to match his durability. The former Met has topped 150 games in four straight seasons. The oft-injured Nootbaar has maxed out at 135 games in a season, and that came this past year, which ended with the double-heel surgery.
Nootbaar has generally been productive when available. He’s routinely posted well above-average walk rates and solid slugging numbers. Nootbaar is typically good for a dozen home runs, a handful of steals, and a respectable OBP. The 2025 season was a healthy one, but Nootbaar declined in production. He slashed just .234/.325/.361, recording his first sub-100 wRC+ since his rookie season in 2021.
Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images
Willson Contreras Becoming More Open To Waiving No-Trade Clause
Entering the offseason, two of the Cardinals’ three pricey veterans — Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado — made clear that they were more willing to waive their no-trade clause this winter than they were last. Gray said he’d “definitely” consider the possibility after chatting with new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom about the team’s direction. He’s already been shipped to the Red Sox. Arenado said he’d consider a broader range of teams this winter than last. He remains with St. Louis and will be extremely challenging to trade given his multiyear decline at the plate and the two expensive years left on his contract.
The Cardinals’ third spendy veteran, first baseman Willson Contreras, said on the final weekend of the season that he’d be open to trade scenarios if they made sense for both the organization and his own personal future but emphasized that his preference was to remain in St. Louis. Now, however, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that Contreras has become increasingly open to waiving his no-trade protection to greenlight a deal if he deems the new club to be a good fit.
Perhaps seeing Gray moved and witnessing a deluge of rumors about teammates like Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, JoJo Romero, Nolan Gorman and others has proven eye-opening for Contreras. Maybe watching the 2025 postseason simply reignited his aspirations to return to the playoffs. Whatever the reason, it’s notable that Contreras is now signaling a greater willingness to approve a deal.
That doesn’t make it a foregone conclusion that he’ll be traded. Contreras’ contract isn’t as complicated as that of Gray or Arenado, but it’s not exactly a raucous bargain in its own right. He’s guaranteed $36.5MM over the next two seasons, plus a $5MM buyout on a club option for the 2028 season. That’s $41.5MM still guaranteed to him overall. Would a 33-year-old Contreras (34 in May) command that type of contract in free agency right now? It’s possible, but he likely wouldn’t earn much beyond that.
Contreras is coming off a strong overall season. He hit .257/.344/.447 with 20 home runs, 31 doubles, a triple, five steals, a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate. By measure of wRC+, he was 24% better than league-average at the plate. His defense at first base — his first year at the new position — drew strong marks from Statcast (6 Outs Above Average) and a roughly average grade from Defensive Runs Saved (-1). It’s not far-fetched to think his glove will improve as he gains more seasoning at his new defensive home.
The Astros signed Christian Walker for three years and $60MM last offseason, a contract that began with his age-34 season. In that sense, one could argue that Contreras’ contract is about market value from an AAV vantage point ($20.75MM AAV on the remaining guarantee) but is more appealing in that it’s a year shorter. Then again, Walker was an elite defensive first baseman who’d his 95 home runs across the three prior seasons; Contreras was a good-not-great defender in ’25 and has hit 55 home runs over the three prior seasons.
The Cards were willing to pay down around half the money remaining on Gray’s contract to get a decent return. They wouldn’t need to eat as much of the Contreras deal to move him, but the more money they absorb, the better the return they can seek. Trading him without paying down any of the remaining salary likely wouldn’t net much of a return at all.
If the Cardinals are willing to eat some of that cash, there should be no shortage of interest in the three-time All-Star. Clubs like the Red Sox (again!), Rangers, Orioles, Guardians, Mets, Marlins and Padres are lacking certainty at first base and/or designated hitter. The Cardinals appear willing to deal within the division, too, which could make Cincinnati or Pittsburgh viable on-paper fits. Could a catching-needy team go outside the box and acquire Contreras with an eye toward putting him back behind the plate? That might be a reach, but it’s a very thin market for catching both in free agency and trade this offseason.
For the Cards, the benefit of trading Contreras is straightforward. Obviously, trimming payroll ahead of a season (likely multiple seasons) where the team doesn’t expect to compete for a World Series would be preferable for ownership. Moving Contreras and including cash in the deal could also net prospect talent of some note, furthering the clear rebuilding efforts.
Trading Contreras would also open first base full-time for Alec Burleson, thereby creating more room in the outfield for players like Joshua Baez, Nathan Church and the seemingly stalled out Jordan Walker (among others). They could also continue giving Burleson some occasional reps in left field and at DH, thus opening more first base reps for Gorman, whose playing time elsewhere in the infield is going to be cut into by top prospect JJ Wetherholt. Then again, Gorman himself could be traded this winter.
Contreras is just one of many Cardinals who could find himself on the move before too long this winter. Bloom & Co. are known to be working to trade Arenado while listening to offers on Donovan, Romero, Nootbaar, Gorman and others. At this point, Contreras and Arenado are the only two Cardinals who are guaranteed any money beyond the current season.
Latest On Cardinals’ Offseason Plans
With Chaim Bloom now officially at the helm of the Cardinals’ baseball operations department, the rebuilding phase that the team has been expected to undergo since it was announced that Bloom would take over for John Mozeliak this offseason now looks likely to begin in earnest. That means exploring possibilities on the trade market, and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cardinals told agents during the GM Meetings this past week that their interest in at least some free agents will hinge on the team’s ability to clear salary in trades.
The big name so far in this winter’s rumor mill has been super utility man Brendan Donovan. Donovan has already been connected to Royals, Guardians, and Astros with other teams expected to be involved as well. Robust as the market for the 28-year-old’s services appears to be, clearing his salary (which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to land at $5.4MM in 2026) off the books won’t do much for the team’s bottom line. Of course, Donovan is far from the only name on the trade market from St. Louis. Six Cardinals appeared on MLBTR’s list of the Top 40 Trade Candidates for this offseason.
That includes three veterans making significant money: right-hander Sonny Gray, third baseman Nolan Arenado, and catcher-turned-first baseman Willson Contreras. Ownership is reportedly willing to include cash in trades of higher priced veterans, and the club’s trio of veterans with no-trade clauses have all expressed a willingness to be more lax with their no-trade protections than they were last winter. Goold writes that the Cardinals are “actively seeking “fits”” for both Arenado and Gray on the trade market. That’s hardly a surprise between St. Louis’s efforts to move Arenado all throughout last winter and the $40MM payout that Gray is guaranteed between his $35MM salary in 2026 and a $5MM buyout on his 2027 option.
Even if some salary is retained, moving Gray and Arenado would open up the club’s finances considerably. RosterResource projects the Cardinals for a $124MM payroll in 2026. While that’s down about $20MM from last year and nearly $40MM from two years ago, ownership and the front office have been candid about the plan to scale back payroll in recent years. If trading both Gray and Arenado can clear $30MM to $40MM off the Cardinals’ books this year, however, that should give them a lot more flexibility when perusing free agency for short-term upgrades who could either help the club compete next year or become trade chips themselves over the summer.
Notably absent from Goold’s roundup of rumors is Contreras. That’s an interesting development, as Contreras would likely be the easiest of the three to move in theory. With that being said, he’s also the one most hesitant to waive his no-trade protection. While he’s indicated he would be willing to consider possible trades, his preference remains to stay in St. Louis and serve as a veteran leader in a clubhouse that figures to get a lot younger as the team retools the roster. A surprise trade of Contreras could lessen the pressure to move both Gray and Arenado or open up even more possibilities on the trade market for St. Louis, but it’s fair to expect that the Cardinals will spend most of their energy on trying to move the veterans most willing to waive their no-trade clauses.
Looking beyond the club’s pricey veterans, Donovan is joined by players like Lars Nootbaar and JoJo Romero as potential trade chips Goold writes that the Cardinals told rival clubs they were willing to listen on. Goold notes all three of those players are within two years of free agency, a fact that’s also true of both Gray and Arenado. The only other players with less than three years of team control remaining in the organization are John King, who was reportedly a trade candidate over the summer, and post-deadline waiver claim Jorge Alcala. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see King’s name come back up in the rumor mill at some point, though Alcala seems unlikely to have any real trade value after posting an ERA north of 6.00 this past year.
In terms of the return for the players they look to deal, Goold adds that the Cardinals have made clear to rival clubs that they’re prioritizing pitching help and looking towards the future. Kansas City and Cleveland, as previously mentioned, are already known to be in the mix for Donovan and have the sort of young, controllable pitching available that could intrigue the Cardinals. The same could be true of teams like the Yankees and Dodgers who have previously expressed interest in Donovan as well. One intriguing fit could be with the Pirates.
In-division trades typically aren’t especially common, but Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington has shown himself to be comfortable dealing with the Cardinals in the past, such as when the sides came together on a trade involving Jose Quintana and Johan Oviedo at the 2022 trade deadline. The Pirates have plenty of young pitching and are in need of help in the outfield that both Donovan and Nootbaar could potentially provide. Bloom’s old stomping grounds of Boston also have a rich collection of young pitching, though their existing glut of left-handed outfield talent could make them a less than ideal fit for someone like Donovan and especially Nootbaar.
Willson Contreras’ Move To First Base Was A Success
It was less than a year ago that the Cardinals made the decision to move three-time All-Star Willson Contreras to first base after the veteran slugger indicated he wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade clause to leave St. Louis ahead of their impending rebuild. That decision was intended to open up the catcher position so that younger players more tied to the future of the franchise, like Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, could get reps at the position and prove themselves capable as regulars in the majors.
Getting opportunities for those young players was a sensible goal, but it didn’t come without risk. Replacing Paul Goldschmidt at first base would be a big ask for any player, and while Contreras has long been a talented hitter he’s not always been able to produce enough offensively to justify a role as an everyday first baseman. Contreras also had just 11 appearances (three starts) on his resume at the position prior to 2025, the most recent of which had come all the way back in 2019, so learning a new position would place additional challenges on the veteran as he headed into his age-33 season.
At first, the experiment looked like it was poised to be a failure. Contreras came out of the gate ice cold in 2025, with a .145/.198/.237 slash line in his first 82 trips to the plate that was difficult to stomach from a first baseman. A month into the season, more than 65% of respondents to an MLBTR poll regarding Contreras’s future suggested that he would be either a league average hitter or worse in 2025, while just 34% of respondents believed Contreras would be able to rebound to his typical numbers. Fortunately for St. Louis, Contreras managed to overcome expectations and do just that. Flash forward to the end of the season, and Contreras is now coming off a solid .257/.344/.447 campaign. His 124 wRC+ this year is right in line with his career mark of 122 and only slightly below the 129 he’s posted to this point in his Cardinals career.
While that rebound from Contreras is certainly encouraging, a 124 wRC+ from first base isn’t exactly the sort of production that one would hope for. Among baseball’s 25 qualified first baseman, Contreras ranked just 12th by wRC+ and actually wound up tied with teammate Alec Burleson, who is entering arbitration for the first time this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Burleson for a salary of just $3.5MM in 2025, a figure that comes in well below the $36.5MM Contreras is owed over the next two years. Given that they can get similar production for much less money in-house, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals were hoping once again to trade Contreras this winter. For his part, Contreras has stated he prefers to remain in St. Louis but will at least consider waiving his no-trade clause this winter.
While Contreras’s production this year might not be commensurate with his salary now that he’s a first baseman, that doesn’t mean there’s no room for optimism. In fact, there’s plenty of positive signs in Contreras’s performance that leave the door wide open for him to deliver at a high level offensively in the coming years. From May 1 onward, Contreras hit a much more robust .268/.357/.480 with a wRC+ of 136. That’s good for the fifth-highest wRC+ in baseball among first basemen during that period, behind only Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Olson, and Michael Busch.
Many players would look a great deal more impressive if you ignored their worst month of the year, of course, but Contreras’s underlying numbers reveal reason for further optimism. The veteran’s .369 xwOBA this season is more or less in line with his numbers since his offensive breakout season in 2022, and a near perfect match for the .370 wOBA he posted in 2024. That performance came with a wRC+ of 141, and there’s at least some reason to believe he could match that performance again in the future.
Contreras’s 13.8% barrel rate and 48.9% hard-hit rate this year were both career highs despite a .190 ISO that was one of the weakest of his career. That drop in ISO and walk rate that dropped to just 7.8% this year were the weakest parts of Contreras’s profile as a hitter this season, and a look at his swing decisions this year reveals the cause of that flaw. Contreras’s contact rate spiked to 73.6% this year, the highest its been since 2018. That’s not a bad thing in isolation, but digging a little deeper reveals that almost all of that improvement came on pitches outside of the strike zone, while he actually swung at pitches inside the zone far less often than he had in the past. Contreras took a swing at just 65.7% of pitches in the strike zone this year, a nearly four-point drop from the previous three seasons.
With Contreras’s impressive underlying power metrics this year, it’s certainly possible that being more aggressive on pitches inside the strike zone could allow him to access more of that power in games than he did this year. Even if that adjustment doesn’t come, however, one major feather in Contreras’s cap is his work with the glove at first base this year. Despite learning the position on the fly this past winter, the veteran posted +6 Outs Above Average this season. Just three first basemen (Olson, Ty France, and Carlos Santana) beat that mark this season, and it stands to reason that Contreras could build on his performance next year now that he has more experience under his belt.
Whether Contreras ultimately ends up finishing out his contract with the Cardinals in St. Louis or getting traded at some point over the next two seasons, it’s hard to view the contract as anything other than a success for the club. In the first four seasons of his five year deal with the organization, Contreras has hit .261/.358/.459 (129 wRC+) with 8.2 fWAR and 8.9 bWAR in 344 games for the Cardinals despite injuries and multiple moves off of his natural position. While the incoming ABS challenge system next year and the lack of catching depth around the league could make the idea of Contreras moving back behind the plate appealing for some potential suitors on the trade market, Contreras proved himself to be a quality first baseman in 2025 and should be able to provide value in that role regardless of if he does so in St. Louis or elsewhere.