As the calendar flips to December, here’s three things we’re keeping an eye on around baseball:
1. Catcher market heating up?
It’s not a particularly deep catching market in free agency this year, with Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez headlining, but the trade market offers some strong options for catcher-hungry teams. Yesterday, it was reported that the Astros are planning to meet with Contreras at the Winter Meetings, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, and Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Guardians are showing continued interest in Oakland catcher Sean Murphy, who appears highly likely to be dealt. His three years of remaining club control and strong offensive and defensive prowess makes him a sought-after target, and a robust market has developed. Morosi suggested a deal could be done during the Winter Meetings, and teams that miss out on Murphy could quickly pivot to one of the top free agents, while the Blue Jays are expected to deal one of Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk or Gabriel Moreno this winter.
2. Will Aaron Judge’s free agency come to an end at the Winter Meetings?
It’s beginning to look like it might. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Yankees have tabled an offer to Judge worth around $300MM over eight years. It’s not known how Judge’s camp has reacted to that, or what any other offers look like, but the report was notable for one other thing. Passan suggested that Judge’s free agency is primed to wrap up within the Winter Meetings, so in a week’s time we could know if Judge will be in pinstripes in 2023, heading to the Bay Area, or to some other team. In many ways, it makes sense that Judge would be the first major free agent to sign. Both the Yankees and Giants will likely be aggressive in other areas if they miss out on Judge. Agents for other top free agents are certainly aware of this and so it makes sense that Judge is holding up the top end of the market.
3. When will the first shortstop come off the board?
It almost certainly depends on what happens with Judge. If, say, the Yankees watch Judge sign in San Francisco, they could quickly pivot and jump into the market for Trea Turner or Carlos Correa. So if you’re Turner’s agent, it makes sense to wait until Judge is gone and see if the deep-pocketed Yankees or Giants are willing to jump in and drive your client’s price up further. Passan reports that the market for the shortstops is already heating up. The Twins are making a strong push to re-sign Correa, Turner has a wide range of suitors, so too are Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson. The offseason has been slow to this point as teams have spent the past month laying groundwork, but it certainly seems like the next week could be busy and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one of the four big name shortstops settle on a home for 2023 and beyond.
Judge to the Giants. Turner to Philly. Correa to NYY. Bogaerts to the Dodgers. Swanson to the Cubs – in that order.
I think there’s a good chance you 100% right but I do wish my Cards would take a shot at Dansby (and murphy).
Mitch – Christian Vazquez is a good fit in St. Louis. I always enjoy watching CV – seems a natural heir to Yadi.
I agree he would be a good fit. I just hope he isn’t plan A. Neither Knizner nor Herrera have shown the ability to be the everyday guy and there’s really not one in our system so acquiring a franchise catcher that you could have for the next 5 ro 6 years should be priority number one for us and Contreras isn’t really a fit when you take into account that he’s a bat first catcher.
All of this. Well said. Really hoping for one of Murphy, Kirk, or Jansen via trade. Pretty good chance Mo leaves SD with a catcher.
Herrera has played 11 games..So to judge a player esp a high prospect for Cards based on 11 games is insane.
He’s a high prospect so that means he won’t be anything but a league average catcher at best as long as he’s on the cardinals.
Where’s Rosario going?
I know the cards missed on DeJong but aren’t they set in the middle infield with Edman, Gorman, and Donovan?
And let’s not forget DeJong still plays exceptional defense and now he’s out of options so he will take a 26 man roster spot.
And #2 prospect Masyn Winn is a true shortstop and about 1 to 1 1/2yrs away.
How about they sign Dansby then trade Donovan to my Astros for Luis Garcia or Jose Urquidy?
Astro fan: One of Gorman or Donovan would have to be in a trade for Murphy in my opinion (hopefully Gorman not because, he’s a bad player but because he needs out of the MI and that won’t happen in StL).
Dejong hasn’t shown the ability to make consistent contact in a couple of years now, (and he’s in the last guaranteed year of his extension) but the glove and the pop would make him a nice bench piece (or trade option for another change of scenery guy) along with Donovan.
Leaving a MI of Swanson at SS and Edamn at 2nd. You deal with Wynn win the time comes. All of Edman, Donovan, Dejong and Wynn may end up in the OF mix at some as well depending on how the guys out there bounce back. Though I could definitely be talked into taking Garcia off of your hands for him.
Then it’s settled:
Cards sign Swanson and move Edman to 2B.
Trade Gorman as a piece for Murphy and. . .
Trade Donovan to the Astros for Luis Garcia.
Someone on here posted that Gorman does not have a good glove. I haven’t seen him play, but I’ve now heard that several times.
Mainly bat only.. Power is there, but can he develop enough contact to tap into the power often enough?
he’s fine. not great, but fine. his biggest problem is range which is why he needs off of 2nd and probably needs a new team where he can be a bat first 3rd baseman.
Thanks.
Thanks, too.
Donovan and or Gorman are going nowhere! They are untouchable.Heck so is Edman.
Say goodbye to an outfielder in trade and beg someone to take Dejong
You could be right about the Cubs, but again, I’ll believe it when I see it. I don’t think they’ll spend the money or give enough years. As for Judge, I feel he stays in NY. Phillies will get either X or Trea. Dodgers will probably not sign a SS and instead focus on the top end of the pitching market.
Vazquez or Naverno to the cards
@rememberthecoop
I agree. The Yanks would be foolish to let Judge go after the “Ruthian” season he just had.
Trea to the Phillies feels like such a no-brainer. Bogaerts, I’m not sure at this point. I hope its Boston but the lack of news either way seems like a negative on that happening
I think Dodger fans will be disappointed as they likely sit out the SS market and don’t land Judge or deGrom (maybe they get Verlander though). While they are more than willing to do big money AAV on short term deals they still show unwillingness to do years, and that stability is still important to many players as free agents
Like Meat Loaf said, “2 out of 3 ain’t bad.”
Change Correa, maybe Giants along with Judge or resign with Twins
You are correct.
Correa is way over rated
30 Parks — I think it’s Judge to Yankees, Turner to Phillies, Correa to Giants, Bogaerts to Mariners, Swanson to Braves.
Pete – could be. Interesting fits. I like XB on that young Mariners squad. I just get a sense Judge is western bound which will cause the Yanks & Dodgers to respond as I noted, plus I think the Braves are ok with letting Swanson walk.
Still, your picks are good, too.
30 Parks — The beauty of it all, is that most of what we say will likely be wrong. But it’s fun in the meantime. And I find myself eager for quite a few players that would help the Giants.
I’m believing Farhan (other fans not so much): I think this offseason will be quite good for them. They know the SF fans are restless. But I imagine that’s true of a number teams fans.t’s an exciting time for baseball fans. I just wish we’d get on with it!
If Judge leaves, why would I want Correa?
I’d want to see what the kids can do since we aren’t strong contenders.
DogDays … because Yankees fans will expect a viable replacement on the roster. I think the Yanks are contenders, I don’t see an AL East team pulling-away-from-the-pack. I get the “see what the kids can do,” but I don’t think that will play well in New York. Correa in NY is a good fit – I’d rather get the established talent than go fingers-crossed on a prospect.
Sadly, I think you might be right but I really hope not. I’m just tired on the mixed messages from ownership. “It’s WS title or bust” but without Judge this team isn’t winning this year or with him for that matter.
Instead of being bogged down with 10 albatross contracts, maybe develop some cheaper, controlled players from within and add the luxury guys when the time is right.
You’re also right about the fans.
In no way, shape, or form is Correa a viable replacement for Judge. If Judge leaves throwing big money at a position with multiple prospects near ready doesn’t make sense when there will still be a massive hole in RF. At that point the Yankees would be better suited spending the money trying to get Verlander, deGrom, or Rodon and beef up the pitching to make up the difference on offense
DogDays – I hear you – makes sense. But, you don’t want to end up in the no-man’s-land where Chaim Bloom has the Red Sox. I can relate on trading Betts, it shifted the identity of the Sox franchise and they’ve not yet recovered. Now Bogaerts & Devers – I digress. Yanks, through free agency, are at risk of the same fate. I think the prospect hype in MLB is over-done, but I certainly see your point.
NYY are almost obligated to replace Judge given the expectations surrounding that franchise – both a blessing & a curse.
Even as a Sox fan, I must say, I’m a fan of Aaron Judge.
30, it’s funny you say that. I’m practical like you and at the time could understand the Betts situation somewhat. That’s very comparable.
But the Bogaerts/ Devers treatment is really strange to me. I’m a big Bogaerts guy—- I’d love to see him on the Yankees.
DogDays – similar takes. However, I can’t handle seeing XB in pinstripes! That’s a bridge too far. Big Bogaerts fan, I simply do not understand running-him-out-of-town. Class guy and heck of a ball player. Boston is, for an unknown reason, rewriting its legacy. I’m not a Chaim Bloom fan – frustrating.
Still, those Yankee SS prospects are pretty good and need time in the majors to develop.
Judge going from the Yankees to a mediocre team like the San Francisco Giants ain’t gonna happen. He’s got legacy issues . And marketing issues.
Its this simple: Is Aaron Judges path to Cooperstown better in NY or San Francisco ?
His agent won’t let that happen. The Dodgers sure . The Giants ? No way .
I don’t know. I could totally see him being comfortable being close to family also and not wanting to deal with the New York pressure.
Part of me thinks the Yankees are better off if he goes. But then, like discussed above, they’ll just sign other guys to long Ellsbury- like contracts.
27 – I see the Giants as eager to replicate (within reason) the Barry Bonds era in San Francisco. I agree on “legacy,” but I don’t know if that will be a deciding factor for Judge.
@27champyankees: On the Giants, he gets to be the The Guy. If he stays good for the majority of his contract, there will be no marketing or legacy issues; he’d be like Barry Bonds (with one big difference, obviously). And as mediocre as the Giants seem right now, early ZIPS projection has them at 83 – 79 (WITHOUT Judge) and has the Yankees (with Judge) at 85 – 77. Pretty much the same ranking.
I mean the Zips projection might be similar but he KNOWS the Yankees will be in contention at least , for years.
Giants? Who knows??
The man’s guying to be spending years 31-39 somewhere. Prime time for getting the family thing going. Surprising so many people see this as a 100% baseball decision. It’s like players don’t have influences and aspirations outside of baseball.
Guying = going.
27champyankees — I think you’ll be surprised. I’m not saying (as a Giants fan) that my first choice would be Judge, but I know we”ll be better with him. But for how long?
Nevertheless, I don’t think you’ll be calling the Giants “mediocre” in the near future.
You mean like Willie Mays? Right. No attention at all.
Bonds?
Are you still working the crack pipe?
If the Giants sign Judge pencil in one of the prime SS available also. Judge won’t go if they don’t add other premium talents.
Agree, although if it’s not Judge, it could easily be Correa, Nimmo and Rodon—possibly even Haniger.
Xander is going to be a padre.
Seems right
Judge will be on the DL by May.
You really think Boegarts is a replacement for Turner?
Why not just keep Turner?
Are you on mushrooms?
Murff – Turner will cost more than XB & I think the Dodgers are looking for a certain pedigree of player. And, yes, I’m on shrooms – I’m having baseball visions.
That explains it.
I think Turner is a lot better.
Why wouldnt LA just keep Turner?
Get off he pills
You will soon find out why they’re letting Trea go.
You sound like a 5 year old. Can’t you have a conversation without your lame, regurgitated drug related insults?
I think Judge will move fairly quickly at the Winter Meetings. We all know it’s a 2-team race. Once he goes, the SS market will follow soon after.
I think Judge does go quick but it will be a contest between the SS to see who blinks first and sets the market.
This makes sense to me. I think they’re related somewhat because the Yankees probably are not involved in the SS market, but if they lose Judge, they will change course for that impact bat.
Or try to pry Ohtani from the Angels.
I don’t see Ohtani moving at all. He’s such a money maker. Maybe at the trade deadline, but not during the offseason IMO.
Ohtani is such a unique talent that the decision to keep him or offer him a stupid amount of money should be left to the new ownership.
Good. I am tired of hearing about it.
On the DL by May.
Remember, only healthy in a contract year.
Oblique, back, “lower body” all of the unproveables. That is what you get.
The real Judge
Fact-check
Fallacy: Judge only healthy in contract year.
Fact: Judge has had three seasons with over 600 plate appearances.
Judge – my predictions for contract, what I think will happen, not what’s smart
9 years at 37 = 333 tops BH
Or
10 years at 36 = 360 ties MT
Yankees, Giants, Dodgers or Mets
10 years for a 31-year-old, oof. Not saying you’re wrong, just thinking what an awful deal that would end up being.
That’s not out of line at all, especially a hitter of his caliber. He has legend and HOF written all over him. DH in both leagues and he’s smashing homers at 45 years old.
*if he even desires to go that long, but he damn well could.
Old Judge with the Pujols belly, lumbering around the bases……hmmmm, nah. He’s gonna stay ripped.
Aaron Pulols
Aaron is not being 10 years, from any team. 9 even would be pushing it. Likely gets 8 and many teams wouldn’t be interested past that amount of years
Getting*
Catcher is an interesting position, I don’t like either but the pitch clock and bigger bases will no doubt lead to more SB’s, how that affects a defensive catcher’s valuation will be interesting.
Pitch calling will be the most important attribute and framing will go away in the next few years. Catcher metrics will be completely overhauled in the next few years.
As a Cubs fan, I am not particularly enamored with Willy’s pitch selection. He does have a cannon tho. And he’s passionate about winning.
I’m just concerned that his greatly mproved defense this past season (per advanced metrics) was just due to this being a platform year. And his offense has been very inconsistent.
I’m just concerned that his greatly mproved defense this past season (per advanced metrics) was just due to this being a platform year. And his offense has been very inconsistent.” – sorry, this was meant to be a reply to Lefty.
If I am the Orioles, I would sincerely kick the tires on Dansby Swanson
I like his game
I dunno, Jorge Mateo was pretty impressive at SS. Plus Gunner, Westberg, Joey, Conner Norby, I think the O’s are set in the middle IF. I want them to improve the club, but MI is strength at the moment. I do like Dansby game too.
The Bucs need catchers but they’ll sign injury prone Roberto Perez and worthless Jason Delay as a backup because they have the cheapest owner in baseball
I think there is a good chance the Bucs bring back Perez. He’s an excellent defensive catcher and would be a good mentor to Rodriguez but, as you pointed out, very injury prone. In fact, he’s only caught more than 73 games in a season once in his career. That’s frightening.
If the Pirates do bring Perez back, I think $2m would be about right and I think they should only start him three games per week and never on two consecutive days. His most valuable role would be as a mentor.
To be fair, he was Yan Gomes backup in Cleveland most of those years
Nutting isn’t about to bring Endy to the majors until he’s surpassed his super 2 status for the season
They’ll bring up worthless Jason Delay to be Perez’ backup
Austin Hedges basically IS Roberto Perez without the injury issues. They could get him for the same amount of money.
No chance Correa to the Yanks. He was with the “Houston Cheaters” and that alone keeps him from being a Yankee.
So was Cole. The Yankees would sign Correa in a heartbeat if they lose out on Judge.
I agree that most MLB players will go where the money is and winning and relationships are there but not as important. History makes little difference.
The Yankees signed Marwin Gonzalez who was the poster child of ” the system” helping a player.
However Cole wasn’t on the Astros in 2017.
That’s true, but I don’t buy the narrative that the Astros magically stopped cheating in 2017.
Ohh and to clarify, I don’t think they’re cheating now. I think they stopped when they were investigated.
Actually it’s recorded in the MLB report that the Astros used the cheating system into the early part of 2018.
I’m sure if interested you can find trash can bangs and determine when they stopped. I don’t care enough.
My team, the Astros, cheated for some period of time. They deserved the punishment they got.
Whether you think it ends there or not is up to you. I suspect fandom has much to do with when someone thinks it ended.
I will say that I feel the majority of teams were also cheating. More and more players are speaking up as time goes by and they no longer risk any backlash as active players.
MLB circled the wagons and made Houston a scapegoat to avoid a league wide scandal that would be catastrophic for the business of baseball.
Most people speed – I’m not going to complain that everyone does it if I get a ticket.
That doesn’t mean I don’t deserve it.
But back to the point.
The Yankees will happily sign Correa if they can and decide it helps them win and put butts in the seats, eyes on the video.
And Yankee fans will cheer every homerun and laser to home on a relay from centerfield.
Great post. Great points.
I don’t see the Yankees signing Correa but not because of the scandal.
I could be wrong but it just doesn’t make sense to me. Even the Yankees can’t have expensive players at EVERY position. It’s time to develop one of the prospects at SS.
I only see it if they miss put on Judge. SS is not necessarily a position of need for them, but if they lose their star player, they’ll need to replace him.
Astrosfn1979 — Agreed. But I think the Yankees put their money somewhere else besides SS (where they are flush with talent)—even if they lose out on Judge (which I think is unlikely).
That’s why the Yankees will ask always be the Astros biaches
By always, you mean temporarily.
Opinion on whether the Phillies will trade Marchan considering he is blocked by Realmuto and Stubbs on the major league roster and Sands and Perez as prospects who need to play in the minors?
300 million for a career .211 postseason average. At least Bryce earns his money.
Judge will get you to the post-season, but then he takes a breather and some other players are supposed to carry the team.
Ignorant-Verlander has been horrible in the post season also, but he had a ring now.
Judge to the Giants, mark it down.
And yes of course the meeting Judge had with the Giants focused around who and what else would be added to the roster.
I expect at least 3 more are coming one being Rodon.
With the new playoff format the Giants should have little problem getting in.
Just my 2 cents
I think that 3rd WC spot is still going to be tough to get in the NL. You got 3 good teams in the NL East, 3 good teams in the NL West and the NL Central runner up has potential to be decent as well.
Plus, the D-Backs are getting better.
I still think Judge ends up back with the Yankees.
He could sign with SF for a discount but Cashman and Hal simply MUST make the largest offer.
And you better believe they will leak it to the fans to save face.
“We offered 10 yrs and $400 M but he chose SF’s 8 yr $300M offer instead ”
But I think the money is too much for Judge to turn down.
Then Correa ends up in SF.
I think the Mets would be open to moving McCann, adding to the catcher moves. With Alvarez coming on and Nido there now. that’s a position of depth for them to deal from, and they don’t have many of those. As far as McCann, he’s a change of scenery guy. Never saw him play before he came to the Mets, but as a consolation prize for not going after Realmuto, he’s a distant second. As in, like whoever came in second to Secretariat in the Belmont second.
Cubs should pivot away from the shortstops and flex their financial muscle, 8/320 for Judge and in short order trade for Murphy then sign Jean Segura.
eh, they say that every year.
free agent xyz is holding up the market.
Half the time the player signs before spring or when actually signed the dominoes dont fall.
maybe teams are still assessing what they need, where the minor leaguers can fill the gap -winter leagues is a goin on and how much or little to spend.
A while ago I said I had a feeling — for no particular reason — that Bogaerts might end up a Yankee. At the time nobody had suggested it, as far as I knew, but yesterday Olney said on a podcast that he thought the Yankees might pivot to Bogaerts if Judge moves on.
Of course I love having Judge in pinstripes, but if he does go to San Francisco as I predicted months ago (and I’m sticking with that story), then the following acquisitions would be fine with me and potentially better for the franchise in the long run than paying for Judge (in view of Hal’s overemphasis on the luxury tax):
Rodon
Bogaerts
Nimmo
Based on the MLBTR predictions for free agent signings and on the current rumor that the Yankees have offered Judge $300M, paying instead for those three would give the Yankees three players for roughly $140M more than they’ve offered Judge.
Would Hal spend that much? Probably not. So how about this instead?
The Yankees could get both Bogaerts and Nimmo for the same money they’ve offered to Judge, and they could trade from their surplus of young middle infielders to acquire a starting pitcher.
What say you, Yankee fans?
It’s def not the worst idea I’ve heard. I really want one of the kids to play SS though.
If they traded Gleyber for Pablo Lopez or some other pitcher and they managed to off-load Donaldson, Volpe and Peraza could man second base and third base. Maybe eventually Xander would agree to move to one of those bases and Volpe or Peraza could take over at shortstop.
But I find it hard to believe that Cashman, who seems to feel more secure with old veterans, would risk playing two rookies at the same time.
Ignorant SOB’s current working hypothesis: the only kind of free agent worthwhile to compete for are 1. Ace caliber starting pitchers, IF your team is in WIN NOW MODE. 2. Elite, Silver Slugger/All-Star caliber players worth a projected 3.5 – 4 WAR or higher per life of contract.
There, done. Otherwise. Owners, keep your checkbooks in your breast pocket, or else you are overpaying boatloads for scrubs you should already have in your system or you can trade for.
Judge to the Astros, and NYC implodes!
Can you imagine him with the Crawford Boxes. You think Yankee Stadium was an asset . . . watch out!
Why would the Yankees sign a SS? Just to spend money? They have a couple on the cusp.