The Yankees wasted little time in making a new offer to Aaron Judge following the commencement of the offseason, with general manager Brian Cashman revealing two weeks ago that the team had made an updated offer to the reigning American League MVP. Judge has since met with the Giants, who were also reported to be preparing an offer. The Dodgers are also a reported suitor. Details surrounding Judge’s free agency have been sparse thus far, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Yankees’ most recent offer was “in the neighborhood of eight years and $300 million.” That’s not a final offer, and the Yankees could increase their numbers if the market necessitates, per the report.
It’s still a ballpark figure, but that general range could potentially give Judge the largest annual value ever secured by a position player. Mike Trout, who inked a 10-year, $360MM extension on top of a standing two-year, $66.5MM commitment with the Angels — currently holds that distinction at $36MM. (Max Scherzer’s $43.3MM AAV is the top mark overall.) Establishing a new AAV record among position players would surely be of interest to Judge, and if the Yankees are truly already in the $300MM ballpark, he’d at least be within striking distance of Bryce Harper’s record for the largest free-agent contract in history ($330MM).
As far as the timing of a potential deal for Judge, it seems as though one could come together in relatively quick fashion. Passan indicates that there’s an expectation a deal could be completed by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings, which take place in San Diego from Dec. 4-7. That meshes with previous reporting from MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, who made similar suggestions on MLB Network when discussing Judge’s meeting with the Giants. SNY’s Andy Martino, meanwhile, writes that it would “be a mild surprise” if Judge doesn’t come away from next week’s meetings with an agreement in hand.
Wherever the present numbers stand, it’s long been clear that Judge’s bold bet on himself this past spring has paid off. Judge declined the Yankees’ best extension offer prior to the season, after which Cashman took the virtually unprecedented step of announcing the terms of the offer: seven years and $213.5MM. That contract would’ve begun with the 2023 season, so Judge appears to have already secured an extra year and upwards of $80-90MM in additional guarantees.
Roster Resource currently projects the Yankees at a bit more than $222MM in luxury obligations. An AAV in the $36-37MM range would bump that number to $258-259MM, setting the stage for a second consecutive season of paying CBT penalties.
As a second-time offender, the Yankees would owe a 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the first threshold of $233MM, a 42% tax on the next $20MM spent, a 75% tax on the next $20MM and a 90% tax on any dollars spent thereafter. Judge alone would put them into the second tier and come with a penalty of around $8-9MM, and any subsequent moves would be taxed heavily. The Yankees could change that calculus by finding a taker for Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks or a member (or members) of their arbitration class, but the team knows full well that the cost of an improved offer to Judge stretches well beyond the bottom-line numbers on the contract itself.
That improved offer, of course, comes on the heels of a historic season that saw Judge seamlessly deal with not only the pressure of the expectations set by rejecting more than $200MM but also the pressure of chasing down Roger Maris’ longstanding mark of 61 home runs. Judge indeed set a new American League and Yankee standard when he belted his 62nd round-tripper of the season on Oct. 4. He finished off his MVP-winning campaign with a stunning .311/.425/.686 batting line — good for a 207 wRC+ that stands as the best offensive season in recent history. Barry Bonds was the last player to match or exceed that level, and prior to him, no qualified hitter had done so since Ted Williams in 1957. MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $332MM contract for Judge when ranking him atop our annual Top 50 free agent list.
The desire to set a new contract record is highly narcissistic. It’s usually topped within a year or two and nobody even remembers.
Irrelevant. The point of setting new records is to keep the line moving so that pay for top players continues to increase in Average Annual Value. It is one of the things the player’s union pushes for as much as possible. Setting new contract records just for them to be surpassed in a year or two is literally the point.
Exactly right.
Chump change
OK, I’m sure I’ll get a ton of negative posts on this; I’ve been watching a cooking contest on tv with my wife. The winner only gets $25,000 as a prize. The competition was real & it had lots of laughs.& they worked hard for it. Now I turn back to this absurd scenario of BB players vying for $300 million dollars. It’s like a bad transistor radio out of reach, it just doesn’t sound right any more.. It’s obscene…
You prepared to stop watching baseball, going to games, or buying merchandise? The NBA players union set the bar when they negotiated a 48 to 52 percent split of all revenue between the players and the owners. Do you think that baseball players are ignorant of this? Obviously, revenue is collected differently in the two leagues, in baseball the teams have more autonomy. However, as an owner in order to keep the players happy and to justify prices to the fans you have to spend a big portion of revenue on the players. The superstars will always get that money bag. The average AAV might even drop league wide, it won’t be the superstars that feel that pain it’d be your mid-tier players. Athletes wouldn’t get paid what they get paid if they weren’t cash cows generating even more. Let’s be honest, it would take an entire industry full of chefs to generate the cash flow of a few players.
That includes pressuring players to take the highest offer.
Yep, just ask Jim Thome….”my heart’s in Cleveland”, but the very last dollar was in Philadelphia.
Haha yeah
Still a good dude no matter how you want to paint him.
He may well be, but he’s also a liar.
It’s both
Yeah, people’s greed in an entertainment business is irrelevant. What a sad joke. Paying these players more just to pay them more. Not that they actually deserve it.
Welcome to a free market economy where the price of goods and services (in this case the playing of baseball) are set at what the market will bear. No one forces teams to offer contracts that break records. Scott Boras doesn’t have pictures.
@drew waters bat. You can’t have this conversation without the owners being on the other side of this. You realize it’s not there money that pays them but ours. This is all a battle over the money that we the fans put into the game. It makes no since to simply stop at complaining only about the greed of the players.
Drew…
As long as people support these folks–going to games, movies, subscribing to services–expect these numbers to continue to escalate. As you can see on this thread, plenty of people are fine w all this, or claim someone “deserves” the $, or of course shifts the blame (owners take the risk, there are no guarantees…players received guaranteed salaries…I don’t like either side, but those who point to owners ignore important differences). People have more power than they think…they’re just lazy.
@salarycapmyth you want to explain to the owners a small market team that drafts good, and has a solid scouting Team explain to Rays fans why they don’t break the bank on a big time free agent? Ohh wait they don’t Have an owner who wants to commit that’s right!!! Lmfaooo
@thecrown. Okay my friend, you are simply going to have to explain how your point even relates to mine.
thecrown24
It’s Drafts well.
They can have a good draft but a team drafts well
They do actually. They sacrifice their bodies and health. The owners make a hell of a lot more than these contracts and all they do is sign checks. The players are the product and the reason the game exists. They deserve what they are paid.
What does a guy who hit 62 home runs , won the MVP award even though someone else had an historic year and single handedly got the Yankees into the playoffs deserve?
Yeah imagine if fans went to the streets like the BLM movement…..demanding REAL change, competitive balance, salary cap…..the owners and players would change in a heartbeat if if the game no longer existed.
Except their wages are actually driven down by the tax threshold. Teams use it as an excuse. My personal view is that, since MLB is a legal monopoly, all teams books should be public record. I’m pretty sure baseball will die before that happens.
I also hope that the people complaining about someone getting more than they think they deserve take a look in the mirror and never ask for another raise from their boss. How narcissistic does one have to be to ask for a raise?
BLM is a joke.
The players are paid in measure by the income they generate. When a team signs a $300 million player, they are saying that player generates really at least double the revenue for the team, they want strong profit margins. Judge in New York is worth well over $600 million to the Yankees and that’s why they are willing to pay more than $300 million. The value to the franchise would drop $1 billion easy if Aaron Judge left. How many people that are not CEOs can say they alone have a billion dollar impact on a value of a company? Yet you don’t want them to get paid for that fact…..
But to set the record, shouldn’t you have to be a better player than the one who holds the record? Judge is not better than Trout, and you can’t even say he has a healthier track record.
@stymeedone: By what standard is Judge not as valuable or more so than Trout?
From 2020 to 2022 Judge was worth 18.0 fWAR which ranks him 1st among all players.
Actually no, you don’t have to be the best.
Timing is important in negotiations.
Yeah bc he just had a historic year. Interesting you’re not looking at 2018-21, and you’re only looking at WAR. Because over that period trout had 22.6 war to 16.2 for judge and 180 WRC+ to 146. Judge is great and had an amazing year, but he’s not worth trout money and will be injured just as much if not more.
I never said Judge is better than Trout. I simply said the timing of his free agency , after that historic year, works in his favor.
Judge bet on himself, Trout didn’t.
It was one of the best examples of a gamble paying off I’ve ever seen!
Yeah, lucky us lol
Trout is not worth Trout money.
I didn’t look five years back because rarely does anyone look that far back when judging a player’s current ability. And it’s odd you say I “only” look at WAR when WAR includes offensive contribution making a wRC+ comparison less comprehensive then the one I presented.
2018 is beyond the horizon every projection system uses. They go back either three or four seasons, weighting those seasons from most to least recent very similar to the following:
3, 2, 1 or
8, 5, 3, 2
Those numbers are multipliers. In a system going back 4 years, ie the lower row of numbers, multiply the value of the 2022 season by 8, multiply the 2021 season by 5, 2020 by 3 (and also pro rating for fewer games played, and 2019 by 2.
Add them up, divide by (8 + 5 + 3 + 2), deduct for aging or add for youth, and you’re in the ballpark of what every projection system will arrive at.
The 3, 2, 1 system is also called Marcel, short for Marcel the Monkey, a system so simple even a monkey can use it.
I don’t find WAR to be the best representation of value. It seems to rate defense more highly than what seems realistic, especially for an OF. When you start to look at WAR between players, you can see some very funky relative rankings, and it’s often because of defense raising someone’s value disproportionately (at least IMO). I know you were looking at last three seasons for a reason, and it’s what most clubs do, but it’s not as if Aaron Judge coming into this year was that close to Trout’s level, and one extreme season shouldn’t change that – that was my point. He’ll get paid Trout money because MLB agents are like vultures and exploit the recency effect like no other industry out there.
My issue with aaron judge has nothing to do with his abilities or if hes worth 30 to 50mil a season. I say if the yankee or the gianta or whom ever wants to give it to him then so be it. My issue is Aaron Judge will be 31 at the start of spring training.. 8 year deal at 35 to 45mil a season taking him into years 39-40. With his already extended injury history. Can he survive that long and still hold that value. Or will he be another arod/chris davis ryan howard prince fielder. To name a couple. Prolific power hitters who dropped off the face of the earth in their mid to late 30s
@Ma4170 Agreed. When I use WAR for quick and dirty work I’ll regress especially any outlying numbers on defense.
WAR more generally, though, seems to work (imho) fairly well as an inclusive summary of all other statistics. For the sake of projecting, though, one does have to correct most versions of WAR for failing to do things like account for flyballs that make it out in one park but wouldn’t in 29 others, and myriad other things of that nature.
As for Trout and Judge, prior to 2020 (omitting 2020 b/c it was a generally bizarre year during which both players played well below their norms), from 2017-2019 Trout was a solid 8 win player in the 7-10 win range, while Judge was a 6-1/2 win guy, with a range of 6-8 wins. It seems clear that Trout was the better player, with a higher base and a stronger range of results—and fangraphs likes Judge even less than this comparison does.
2021, another year in his 2017-2019 range, gives Judge a healthy leg up on the ailing Trout and significantly closes the previous gap, while 2022 lets Judge vault ahead, to the point where Judge projects as the better player from here on out.
I know you know Trout’s big problem–he’s still a superb player, but since the start of 2017 he only averages 110 games a year, and 2021 was his worst year yet in that regard while Judge has just established a new personal high in games played, his 3rd season of 5 full seasons where he’s played 148 games or more. Trout hasn’t played even 148+ since 2016.
I’d also agree that salaries have gotten absurd, and anyone paying Judge for this outlier of a season probably gets what they deserve. Trout got 12/426m just prior to 2019, when he had put up three 9 win seasons of four from 2015-2018, and in the fourth he was merely brilliant. I’d much rather have that projection than a projection centered on Judge’s one freaky season.
@Brent97 2 An 8 year deal to Judge only takes him into his age 38 season.
He is. Even if he gets injured more moving forward consider this contract back taxes on Trout’s part.
I personally do not like watching Judge striking out much more than homering.
Short sample size. Will he take a 3 year contract?
Salaries increase or are you still earning what you earned 6 or 7 years ago?
It’s not a short sample size when he’s on the field. When he plays he hits for power has a very high obp and hits for decent average has speed and is a good defender. His only question mark is his health. The problem is why do fans begrudge players money. The NY Yankees are worth 6 billion (yes billion dollars Why should they be nickel and diming Judge.? Fans have to stop attacking the players and start realizing the teams aren’t putting up enough in payroll. Every team in the league gets over 100 million a year from the national TV rights and there are many teams whose payroll is below even that’
I always thought WAR included a weighted value for a players homeparks rating as a good or bad hitters park. Is that incorrect?
It’s subjective. It’s what a team thinks a player is worth to their roster. I wouldn’t be paying Trout the much if I ran a team that couldn’t make the postseason. Money clearly needs to be spent elsewhere on that roster.
I really like Judge but Judge needed Trout to play in only 155 games the past two seasons to out pace him. Trout is the greatest player this generation has ever seen.
Someone asked in what world is Trout more valuable than Judge, every single one would be the answer. Trout should have won the MVP in each of his first 5 seasons, 6 times in his first 8, at 31 Trout is already a first ballot hall of famer.
With that said, somehow, Judge manages to be undervalued. My speculation is because Giancarlo Stanton. The comparison in body stature and power, Stanton had an epic year very similar to Judges (I would say power wise a bit more impressive playing in Miami) and then fell off. He was also considered a plus defender at the time as well but the size, weight, DH rumors surrounded him, same as Judge.
I really hope to see Judge prove the nay-sayers wrong and play at a very highly the majority of his contract but I worry about the Yankees even if he does. Not about Judge but trying to stay afloat with Cole and Stanton not living up to their lofty salaries. If Judge falls back to a 5 WAR player while Cole and Stanton are producing at 2 WAR it may be too insurmountable.
Look Trout is among the greats of all time. However Trout really can’t stay on the field. In the last 6 years he’s only played 120 games in 2 of those years. While Judge has had health problems Trout is a breakdown machine. It happens regularly.
Judge will be 31 in april so this would be paying him from 31-39 yrs old. if it was an 8 yr deal.
@Blue Baron you can play this same game with CEO’s of blue chip companies. Is the CEO of Microsoft “better” than the CEO of Apple???
Do you ever consider that Trout may have paid for himself already with the revenue he brings in ???
No where in the article does it say Judge’s desire is to get a record contract. They only outlined what the current offer sits in that regard. Judge may very well stay with the Yankees even if the offer is less than others We’ll see but his bet on himself most certainly will pay off.
And yes, from a player standpoint, pushing up contracts improves the chances others will get better contracts. The hope is that another will come along and top the previous high.
You somewhat have the connection backwards. Because of inflation and increasing revenue, contract values go up over time. Because contract values go up, new benchmarks should be set fairly regularly. A top of the market FA who accepts less than an approaching benchmark deal would, essentially, not be getting his full value. Judge just put up a near unprecedented season, on top of being a personality that teams can bet on and is especially of value in the biggest market in sports (having been proven there already). He should be getting a benchmark deal then, unless he actively accepts leaving some market value on the table.
Inflation is a fallacy. Inflation for luxury goods doesn’t work like. As I’ve said before, the price of a lot of commodities have been relatively flat for two plus decades. Especially for extreme luxury items. Yes, there was a short lived increase in commercial goods because of supply chain issues causing low demand, but that has all mostly receded. Building supplies have returned to the costs seen the light the 2010s. The price of chicken wings has come back. But extreme luxury items weren’t effects by the supply and demand issue that affected normal goods. The price of a Ferrari was not effected. Some items have gone up in cost, but not because of increased of the same cost of goods, but because of the changing of gods to more modern and efficient parts that replace the legacy parts. It was only when the last iteration of gaming systems come out that the price of videos games actually increased. And many other items such as TVs and cell phone plan rates have seen significant declines in price as economies of scale and production efficiency have increased. And revenue in a vacuum is also irrelevant, it has be correlated to bottom line net profit. There are a lot expenses that increased well beyond the superstar contracts, a lot to do with the wages of the common person have increased, especially those in specialized fields. Advertising costs have gone up, stadiums are constantly being enhanced to continue to provide the most modern experience for those attending. Concession expenses have increased, taxes, minor league wages, travel expenses, MLB minimum salaries, insurance for both MLB and MiLB players, organizational staffs and property. Cost for better quality promotional giveaways and increased frequency of give aways. Players like Judge can play the supply and demand game, but the owners set the demand and their expense ceiling. They know that the game would be unaffected if Judge decided his salary requirements were not met and was going to sit out until they were. Again debunking the salaries must continue to top each other because of the inflation principle. because I bought a 42 inch LCD TV 15 years ago for $2,000 doesn’t mean I should be able to sell it for $1,500 not should I have to pay $3,000 for a new one when the market conditions show trends adverse to that.
Hmm, has that “fake inflation” affected your salary at MSNBC?
” the wages of the common person have increased,…”
Wages for everyday working people have been stagnant for half a century.
“Why American wages haven’t grown despite increases in productivity.” SEE CNBC July 19, 2022, among many other sources.
It’s a tricky conversation. No, people in the same jobs or with the same company aren’t seeing their wages increased. Every business knows, among their entry to mid level positions, their cheapest employees are their most tenured employees. You have to be willing to change jobs to get a wage increase. We hire in kids out of college at significantly higher salary then some people currently make who have been with the company 10+ years in the same or similar roles. That‘s the way it is with tons of companies because they have rules in place for maximum increases for roles, but that doesn’t affect new hires. Plus, the legacy employees have adjusted their life style to their pay, are comfortable with it and are risk adverse, so they never think to raise there hand about it. In 2004 you were lucky to get $8.50 to $10/hour working at McDolnalds or a gas station, or a big box store. Now those wages are $15-$18/hour. When I started working minimum wage was under $5/hour. So it depends what part of the work force you isolate to see salary fluctuons. If you want to cherry pick accounting, education and admisstrative positions, or public services, yes you will not see a change. Look at IT and engineering or other technical fields and you’ll see increases.
Boom!
So you are saying even though the Yankees as an organization have seen their value increase by 100s of millions of dollars over the past decade {they are now worth over 6 billion dollars) there players should not reap any benefit and ownership should just make more money? That sounds like a really messed up way to distribute the wealth.
Maybe the players should by a team. The team worth is also far more just the team. stadium value, real estate value, all of the entertainment building outside the stadium like many clubs now have and own. Licensing deals, etc..
But I believe that some of them are being “pushed” by the MLBPA on that. So even if they themselves don’t necessarily give a rats behind about a record, you better believe the union cares. Hey, it’s all funny money to me.
Keep in mind, Judge’s salary will figure into every qualifying offer that follows it. The higher Judge can raise the bar, the higher every qualifying offer increases. Sure Judge is helping Judge but he’s also helping other MLB players also.
Yep, that’s the same point I was trying to make too, Rick.
I’ve never known wealthy men to care a whit about other wealthy men, especially when it came to pennies on the dollar versus their own happiness.
It’s a moral certainty that if Judge believes he and his family will be happier with, for example SF at 8/296m compared to NYY’s offer of 8/304m, then knowing that the QO will be something like $19.90 vs $19.95 million if he takes San Francisco’s offer isn’t going to bother him in the least.
Imagine a professional athlete living 8 more years in a city he’s tired of because he got a call from his rep saying, ‘hey, it’ll help a few guys who take the QO reach almost 20m.’ Doesn’t happen.
Scherzer didn’t take the $53m more the Mets guaranteed because he’s a union rep. It was because he was close to retirement and it was fifty-three million dollars more than LA was reported to offer.
@dobsonel
When Aaron Judge hit 52 HRs in 2017 as a rookie and was an all-star, ROY, and 2nd in MVP votes, which led to Yankees selling an abundance of merchandise and literally had his own rooting section (The Judge’s Chamber), were you saying “Aaron Judge doing all of this for less than $550,000 is highly empathic!”?
If not (and hint: you were not), then why fault the players for wanting to get paid their worth after years of being underpaid (relative to their peers and talent level)? Especially when there is no incentive to take a lesser amount, but plenty of incentive to max out (as @stevewpants mentioned).
Allways remember, those gaudy numbers you hear about? The reason they exist is that the owners can afford it. The money is allready there. Who do you want to get it. Some Billionaire who just goes and buys another yacht he moores for 11 months out of the year.? Or some adopted kid from Sacramento California adopted by two school teachers that worked his ass off his entire life and entertains you and the whole baseball community night in and night out nearly 10 years after being drafted….. take your pick.
Oh boy here we go….. the rich are bad, the “poor” are good. Cmon man, do better.
Jealousy is a disease.
Id love to understand this logic.
So if a ballplayer works his ass off to play baseball, he becomes a multimillionaire, then he’s a good guy.
But if a businessman follows his expertise and works hard to become a billionaire in business, he’s bad.
What in the world are these schools teaching??
@JayBiz33 Who do I want to get it? The taxpayer who funded multi-hundred million dollar stadia throughout the country. Time for a rebate and public corruption trials.
This is such a stupid argument. Guess what genius, OWNERS WERE RICH BEFORE BUYING BASEBALL TEAMS! Yeah, they are billionaires, because because they were billionaires before buying a team, hence why they could afford the team!
What would poor adopted kid do if it wasn’t for the OWNERS?!? What would you do if not for the owners?
I heard one of my employees, just like you, say a stupid comment of “I’m tired of making other people rich”… I worked in Iraq for years to save up enough money to buy my business, invested 100s of thousands of dollars of my own money to buy the business, went through the profit loss to grow my business so yeah I’m going to make money because I took all the risk… weak arguments from weak entitled people.
So profiting from a free market society is ok but asking for compensation based on the market value is not? You sound like a good guy to work for. Are you hiring? Is the salary negotiable? I’d love my employer to be condescending to my personal aspirations.
I think it was 5 teams cut payroll by $100m from 2019-2021 and surprisingly the ticket prices stayed very close to 2019 prices. Bottom line, salaries have little to do with the ticket price. The market value of that ticket sets the price.
That isn’t anywhere near what I said. And I’m sure McDonald’s isn’t standing in the way of YOUR career aspirations
I apologize for making a sarcastic personal comment. It’s truly not my style but you were being disparaging to someone you directly (or perhaps you are successful enough, indirectly) hired. That isn’t cool in my book but that’s on me. I have people that work for me too. If they have deficiencies I get them training. Being a good manager has less to do with pushing than it does with pulling. You have an employee who desires more for themselves and instead of encouraging them you’re on here telling us that it’s stupid. The weird part is that’s it’s exactly what you did. You decided not to make someone else rich. If I completely misunderstood the post, please explain it.
This response makes no sense. He overheard an employee saying something stupid. Is he supposed to coddle them and tell them its ok?
Luckily, I hire people that usually can take constructive criticism and won’t let some malcontent became a cancer.
Not sure what kind of business you run, but I don’t have time to send employees to 100 different training sessions depending on their particular issues and needs.
Nobody even remembers? Pretty sure every agent remembers. If you don’t understand why players seek the highest AAV you probably don’t understand much of the economics and should probably just stop commenting.
The Guardians are quietly negotiating with Judge. Don’t be surprised if this comes out of nowhere.
Starting to think we might have to go a little higher now.
The desire of the union is to increase wages. It’s not always about the personal players desire, but setting precedent.
Aaron Judge has the opportunity to have an illustrious career solely as a Yankee. Which is very rare. Sign with NY and call it a day.
It’s better to be Derek Jeter than Alfonso Soriano.
I feel that none of these big free agents are going to sign until Judge signs. Let’s turn the pre-2022 offer of 7/213MM into 8/313MM and call it a day.
True. And those numbers look about right.
Agreed – and possibly 9/330
There is always that team out of nowhere to worry about. Remember Seattle coming out of nowhere with this deal that was 3 years longer than the Yankees or how much more the Rangers paid ARod to play for them. It was approximately 40 to 50% higher than the previous top salary. Those are what concerns me.
Would love for Judge to a) get his well-deserved money and b) leave the AL East. 🙂
I am really starting to think that the Giants are not going to acquire him. Upon reflection, this seems counterintuitive to Zaidi’s MO. I could be wrong, but he’s done *everything* to shy away from big, long-term contracts.
The Yankees gave Judge the starting point of $100M over where they were and said to see if anyone can beat it. Despite the Giants’ claims, I don’t think they’re willing to go all-out on Judge.
It will be interesting for sure. I just hope he signs soon. I think his market is really limited to these two teams.
yea theyre just trying to make it as hard as possible for the Yankees to resign judge, its gonna cost a lot of money. I could see the Giants start to break once other free agents begin to sign.
Why would the Giants be interested in making Judge costlier to the Yankees? They’re in a different league.
If the Giants weren’t really interested in signing Judge (and I believe they are), the only advantage to them in raising the price for Judge would be to keep him from signing with the Dodgers or making LA pay a premium to get him.
I’m curious who is leaking the number. It could be Judge’s camp leaking to get the Giants to increase their offer so he can then get the Yankees to increase their offer. Or, maybe the Yankees are leaking to try and get the competition to back off by making it clear they have no intention of losing this negotiation. They have used this tactic previously. A bidding war for a player like Judge will end up increasing the salaries of all top-end players. Correa will be more expensive. Ohtani next year becomes more expensive. Soto the year after, etc. So there is a point it makes sense to stand down if they know they’re going to lose.
So…I have no idea!
All money leaks are agents. All. Whether its the agent involved, or another agent trying to drive prices for their client, its 100% agent leaks.
Whoever is leaking it, probably agent, is definitely a heads up to other pursuing clubs where the price is going. I can easily see Judge landing a 40 million a year contract. Giants to me seem desperate for a star to fill those seats. Judge will do that for them
I don’t play poker very often but this would definitely be the perfect time to go “all in” and drive up the bidding or worst case scenario if you are a club like the Giants you get a slugger to build around that is generally a very well liked individual if he were to take your best offer.
Could also be a non-serious team checking in on Judge and finding out what the starting bid is. They want him to speed up his signing so that they can pursue their own desired free agents. Who knows??
Nobody really Leaked anything though. “In the neighborhood of 300 mill” anyone who is following the story would conclude he will hit 300mil, at minimum.
I have to disagree, they went out after Harper at I believe 310 million range and even expressed interest in matching Phillies if need be but Harper chose what he chose. Giants are sitting at 130 million range now for season, even at 40 million a year for Judge, they have money to play with. Ownership has already stated there’s no player they can’t go after. I think the Giants are better suited to land Judge per payroll.
I agree, I think Zaidi made the roster decisions he did for exactly this reason, get money off the books and go big game hunting
Zaidi had to clear the deadwood off the books, and there was nothing to do but wait out some of these deals while putting a competitive team on the field.
Guy just happened to assemble a 107 win team while rebuilding.
And there are people calling for his head. Jaysus.
The market for these kinds of players is always limited to 4-5 teams. Baseball economics is trash.
I prefer to think that Zaidi’s reluctance to engage in big long term contracts is so he has the flexibility to jump on Judge like opportunities when they arise.
Also not discounting the Dodgers. I’ve got California as the favourite.
Agreed foppert and I believe signing Pederson for 19mil is an indication that he’s beginning to exercise that flexibility. He doesn’t sign pederson for 19 before this year. Heck only 6 last year. And I’m gonna suggest this, if 6 was best Pederson could get last year and is now at 19, couldn’t it appear to other FAs that Zaidi gave Pederson the chance to bet on himself last year. Pedersons bet on self pays off for him with the Giants. So Zaidi signs Rodon last year, includes a way (innings minimum) for Rodon to easily reach that clause so Rodon can opt out. In essence, Rodons contract allowed him to bet on himself. So, my theory (or wishful thinking lol) is that Rodon signs with the team that gave him the opportunity to bet on himself. Without that opt out contract of last year, in other words a 2 year deal, he wouldn’t be able to beef up his value for THIS year like he can now. I just hope they keep him.
I’m with you, Claude. He provides, and markets them as, an environment for players to improve.
Love the Pederson deal. Didn’t really suit the right handed requirement last year but he wanted in. The deal reflected the situation. Outperforms it by plenty and gets a show of appreciation. But a 1 year deal. Back over to you now, Joc.
Foppert, I agree, but I figure he is more in line for a SS perhaps, and/or Nimmo. I just don’t see Zaidi taking on the later years of Judge the more I look at it, especially for that price point.
But, I could very well be wrong here. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Judge in a SFG uniform next season. I’m like…. 65/35 right now, but my money is on the Yankees for Judge. I would be a bit surprised to see the LAD come out in front, honestly.
I do believe Zaidi is going to spend, however. So my intention was not to make it appear as though he is averse to spending altogether.
Good point Clipper. I think they will spend. So, spend on pieces or splash splend to sell tickets. My bet is they splash. So judge, Rodon hopefully and pieces. Bullpen. 2nd tier starter. Nimmo too much so maybe Conforto or Haniger. All possible at less than $233mil cuz over would defeat Zaidis plan…and keep owners happy
Clipper,
I think there is value add there for the Giants with Judge. They need a leader and he perfectly suits their ethos. Nice guy, hard worker etc.
Time will tell.
The most expensive FAs seem like increasingly bad bets. You never want them for the last 1/3 of the deal, so being stuck with 35m-40m in dead money on the books for 2-3 years badly hurts the possibilities for even well-off teams.
This might be blasphemy but part of me hopes Judge leaves.
There’s also the possibility Judge’s contract pays for itself by Year 4 or Year 5 of the contract…thru marketing promotions, increased ticket sales, luxury box sales, playoff shares, etc.
Oakland it is!
I’ve been saying all along, and I continue to strongly believe this – the Yankees are going to re-sign Judge. All he’s doing is finding out what his market value is, so he can tell Hal how much to write the check for.
@thecoop: Yep. Finding a big bat talent not intimidated by the bright lights of NYC is easier said then done. No way in h+e+double toothpicks Hal let’s AJ get away.
Agreed clip. The longer it takes for judge to sign, the more free agents will come off the board, and then there will be fewer free agents or trades available for the Yankees to choose from, to improve the team.
On the other hand, it doesn’t mean the Yankees will do anything else significant after they sign judge ,even if there were many free agent available. I tend to doubt it ,based on my observations of Cashmans MO over the years. I expect Cashman to continue the yearly process of dumpster diving in order to fibd under the radar ,or cheaper players. We’ve seen how that works out over the years. We’ve obtained players such as Luke Voit or Tauchman, who initially looked good, but were eventually exposed with more playing time.
Same. It comes down to who is willing to knowingly overpay Judge versus his projectable value on the field, and by how much they’re willing to do so.
That’d be the Yankees. They know he’s a hit with their fans. SF can think that wrt their fans, they can hope for that, but guys don’t always catch on with new fanbases, while the Yankees know what their own books say year after year.
Jack…although I too think Judge is heading back to NY, I think your comment isn’t accurate. One, I think the Giants are going to go above NY in price, they’re desperate for a star and know their fans would pack the house to see him play. Two, these ball players play everywhere, it wouldn’t take long for Judge to feel appreciated. Three, I don’t think Judge agrees with you on the fans, after a season he just put up and got booed off the field. That to me, wouldn’t sit well if I were a player. On top think of growing up rooting for the giants and now having the chance to play for them. I give it a 50/50 shot for either club, but I will say the Giants are going to leave it all on the table
Booed off the field?
No, that was Gallo.
It will be interesting. Clearly there’s a lot less pressure and expectation playing in San Francisco.
So wait a min, you’re saying Judge wasn’t booed for his performance by NY fans in the playoffs? You think facing the NL west is no pressure annd low expectations because they’re the Giants? I’m confused, maybe Judge wasn’t booed off the field but that dude was booed.
I apologize if it sounds like I’m splitting hairs but a smattering of boos isn’t being booed off the field.
I think Judge has been around long enough to understand the frustration and not take it personally.
And yes, I think there clearly is a lot less pressure playing in San Francisco than New York. I don’t think that’s groundbreaking.
What’s the pressure? Pressure to win? Pressure to please an ungrateful fan base? If it’s pressure to win, the NL west is a pressure cooker. Lol.
To win of course and I don’t think the fan base is ungrateful. Maybe a bit spoiled lol.
I agree!
Also from what I’ve heard players say, media pressure/presence can be overwhelming in NY compared to other markets. And yeah, the fans can be brutal. I think there’s pressure everywhere, but I fully agree there’s less of it in a market like Minnesota as compared to NY.
So 9 years and 335. Gives him both the most ever and the highest AAV for a position player
Mystery13, Are you going to cry if he doesn’t break some kind of “AAV” record??? Superfical BS!!!!
No, but the union most certainly will Trumbo! haha. I can picture Tony Clark bawling in a closet, scrunched up and sobbing like a little baby. If the guy with the best season in recent history can’t break a record, how the hell will salaries go up???
You are right Coop. Didn’t even dawn on me till you mentioned it. It’s the union that is chasing all this “record” salary BS! Fans on the other hand should not give a flying fudgesickle about whether he BEATS another players AAV or hits a RECORD salary or anything like that.
You know people can make comments without caring one iota what the actual outcome is. My comment was actually a very possible outcome based on recent signed contracts, judges past season, yet nowhere do I say jeez I really hope Judge breaks a record. But somehow your childish little brain went there
That’s a really weird reply. Are you gonna cry if he does?
Yeah I’ll cry if he does.
I like everything about Judge. I think he plays hard and he’s humble. But expecting him to come close to his 2022 season ever again is delusional, and so you have to be realistic about what he’ll do from here on out. I would love to see a number of teams try to lure him away with a short term high AAV deal though. Could make things interesting.
Why is it delusional? You could have said the same after 2017. It’s not even delusional to say he couldn’t break his own personal HR record, as he literally just did that this past season. I’m not saying he 100% will, but it’s certainly not delusional. He’s the most feared hitter at the plate right now, and should be paid accordingly.
i see his point.
where are roger maris’s repeat 61 hr seasons?
hes a myth. hit 61 once, didn’t come close again. ever.
Most teams would be willing to give judge 5 years @35+
, not 10.
Take him out of that short porch field, and the fear will go away.
How the hell are you comparing Maris to Judge, based on one years HR totals ?
To the casual fan, it would seem that way. To the educated fan, Judge hut 32HR on the road (30 at the Stadium). His shortes HR was to right field, it was 355 feet. Do you know of any parks that hold a 355′ shot to right field?
My point is, Judge is a much better player than Maris.
judge is better than maris.
but if maris were a free agent after his 61 hr season nowadays most would try to get 10 years but point is most team’s window is 5 years and those 10 year contracts hardly ever work out to the fullest.
.
Agreed. The track record for these long term high priced deals is very bad. Here comes another.
Especially at his age. I was annoyed my Sox didn’t sign Harper or Machado because they were young. The first season of a new Judge contract he’ll be 31.
His 2022 season stats per PA are in line with his other relatively healthy years. The only significant difference in 2022 was that he set a personal record for PAs. But 2022 was pretty representative of Aaron Judge’s current performance level.
I hold Aaron Judge in the highest regard but the contract he eventually signs is going to age like milk.
MLB ….setting records for hotdogs prices……..
MLB…..setting records for cheating the American public……right up.there with MilliVanilli and Susan Vega…..
I much prefer Alan Vega
Chevy Vega?
Garcia Vega
So multiple Vegas would be Las Vegas.
Suzanne Vega.
wasnt vega in suicide -covered by spacemen 3?
nhl & nfl cheat the US – $300 + for a ticket for a bad team.
Cerwin Vega?
Hands off my subwoofer!
They were the best woofers around too!
Will listen to offers for Alexuan Vega…
Susan Vega? What does she have to do with Milli Vanilli . . . or hot dog prices?
When did she cheat the public, Superfife?
What did Suzanne Vega do ??? I must have misses the boat on that one.
If you don’t like, don’t go to the game… or eat before the game… no one is forcing you to buy anything.
I think the SS market will ultimately be real reason for the slow off season.
The SS want to see who misses out on Judge. And then there are 4 elite SS each with pros and cons and that market likely takes a long time to shake out.
Agreed – we are hurrying up to wait. At least after judge a lot of the smaller pieces will continue to go, but the SS market will be the next. I imagine Correa going no later than late Dec early Jan to not repeat last year.
Let the Yankees sign him. He didn’t take them to the world series this year. He’s not going to next. It’s call team sport. Could sign 3 top pitchers instead for that price and get the outfielder or pitcher from Japan. Yankees will miss the world series again. Sincerly Signed judge ⚖️
3 top pitchers for what Judge would make? Who?
Verlander degrom and Rodon will probably sign for 325 million combined or less.
Yeah for just a few years. Not really comparable.
That’s not how that works. 35-40 per year for judge – if you sign all three top pitchers it is roughly 100 per year.
That’s misleading. No team is going to sign those three based on total cost. All teams are going to look at AAV, however, which is going to be 3x what Judge makes per season.
Verlander and degrom will get a higher aav then Judge. Not sure where your thought process is coming from?
It might not be comparable for length and it’s not comparable from an AAV, but from a total guarantee and value for the team? I think there is a comparison there, but that depends…how many years do you actually expect judge to be good and how many years of the contract are essentially spreading the cost for the front end? You will have Judge signed for 8+ years, but not because you want to, because you have to, to get him to sign.
Cool, let’s get more pitchers and watch more Yankee playoff teams that can’t score.
Eight years and $300m would be my final if I’m the Yankees…..and even THAT contract will probably age horribly half way through.
Honestly, I love Judge but I would rather see SanFran shower him with a stupid number and we sign Correa and Nimmo instead.
Correa’s contract will be around 300 mill as well. Not sure how your signing both with Judges money.
It would take some off loading of terrible deals…..Donaldson, Hicks, IKF, etc
JJ 7 – how many healthy years has Nimmo had?
How many has Judge had?
Doesn’t mean you replace an injury prone player with another.
The Yankees have their share of injury concerns so I agree that adding an injury prone player is probably not the best idea, but one of them is going to cost ~1/3 of the other, much less risk there.
Why would anyone say… “It’s not my final offer?” That just tells them they will go higher. If you are making an offer, say, “This is what we can do.” If they come back and say, do better, then make them feel like you are trying to get a deal done, but maybe the money just isn’t there. By saying “It’s not my final offer”, that means they can offer more.
It’s stated in the article that the willingness to go more is market driven. It’s implies that the Yankees have made it known that they could go higher, but won’t bid against themselves. It’s on Judge’s agent to see whether he can drum up a bigger offer and thereby extract more from the Yankees; if not, this is what is on the table.
No it’s not. Nobody really knows what all the offers are except Judge and his agent. Other teams are not notified of other teams offers. The Yankees have no clue what their offer need to be to outbid the other teams.
You’re right. It was a stupid remark. Cashman bid against himself. In the spring he stupidly announced the terms of his offer and now he stupidly offers to bid more. What an idiot.
I really like Aaron Judge-really like him, but there is no way I would chose him over Correa. Let alone, pay him more than Trout.
6’7” 282 lbs over 30 years of age..yikes
Correa over Judge? Huh?
That doesn’t even make sense for the Yankees.
SS is one position we can play an inexpensive kid.
Why would be being tall be a deterrent for a long term contract?
Go watch the ending of the movie Crazy People.
If I “had to” build a team over 1 fa player it would be Correa. Once again, I really like Aaron. But, for 8+ & highest aav year deal, is an enormous organizational risk. Obviously Yanks, LAD, Giants can afford it though
Big bodied baseball players typically age more-poorly: Miggy, CC, Fielder, Fielder, Giancarlo.
But big-bodied shortstops age well?
Correa wouldn’t be high on my list but I respect your opinion.
Very true haha. I honestly did not realize how big Correa is.
Yeah, I guess being a DET fan it just seems awfully volatile (for future’s sake). Is Judge worth it? Absolutely, because who the heck am I to decide. Plus, someone is willing, and that is great for both parties.
Honestly, I’m a Yankee fan and hope they sign him but unlike many, it won’t be the end of the world for me if they don’t.
I don’t trust his injury history and the latter years of the contract at that money, would be a major concern.
Also, even if they sign him, they still have to spend money to improve this team.
Of course they can afford it, but they have not shown a willingness to acquire free agents or to spend more in order to make up for the blunders. Nor does Cashmans apparently have the chops to make trades or deals to improve the team much either. Or to make up for the blunders that he has made.
I don’t think Cashman is great but making him the fall guy doesn’t make much sense to me.
Nobody said he’s the full guy. He’s just one piece of the puzzle.
Judge will be 31 at the start of next year. Chances are very good that in the last 3-4 years of an 8 year contract he will be more of a full-time DH than a good outfielder. Older players are more susceptible to injuries as well If he doesn’t lead his team into the WS in the first half of his contract, teams and fans will not be happy with him. Look at his treatment by Yankee fans in the last playoffs.
There’s a downside to every move. Now, how would you replace that production?
Judge should be good for anywhere between 35 – 50 HR and 90 – 110 RBI per year for the next 3-4 years IF he remails healthy and plays close to a full year. In the last half of an 8 year contract I’d expect a fall off in production and regular injuries that limits his playing time and makes him untradable. If a club is happy with that scenario, then sign him. If not then sign one of the shortstop options this year, look to sign/trade for Devers next year as he’s likely to be a FA. Two strong bats in the line up as opposed to one is always preferable.
Again, you didn’t mention who these “two strong bats” are. Plus at least with Judge, the Yankees know he’s not the type to crumble under scrutiny, which is worrisome for the New York teams.
Actually, I did in a way – “sign one of the shortstop options this year, look to sign/trade for Devers next year as he’s likely to be a FA.” There are 4 strong shortstop options open right now. Grab one of them and try to get Devers this year or next or even JD Martinez this year. That should give you numbers equivalent to what Judge is likely to do next year.
There’s a lot of untradeable contracts that get traded as I’m sure you know from the Vernon Wells miracle.
First off, they don’t need a SS. I know people think teams should just spend millions at every position but if you can put a really good prospect at SS, with the hopes he’ll develop, while getting off cheap…. That’s ideal.
Meanwhile, all those SS have question marks also.
Devers? I don’t see that Yankee /Sox trade on the horizon and then you have to pay a lousy fielder a big contract also.
You’re quite right in saying that have been untradeable contracts that get traded, but they are few and far between. Vernon Wells was coming off a season with 31 HR, 88 RBI, a .273 BA and .331 OBA so I can kind of understand the Angels picking him up. But the Yankees really screwed up when they picked him up 2 years later (unless the Angels retained a ton of salary).. Trading Judge at age 35 with 3 or 4 years of $30+ million owing would likely be a far more difficult undertaking IMO.
A top SS will cost nearly or as much as Judge. Devers will cost. JD will cost. Altogether, much more than Judge. Ao no comparison.
I understand that 2 will cost more than Judge. But the SSs are, I believe, younger then Judge and you could add a mid 30s aged player on a short term contract thus saving having Judge being overpaid in his declining years.
I’m not saying that’s a horrible take. But someone like Correa has had back issues and will probably be overpaid during the contract too.
I think Peña worked out pretty well. 33.7 million reasons to develop good prospects.
“Look at his treatment by Yankees fans…”
This narrative is tiresome. So many teams’ fans have booed their stars. And this wasn’t all Yankees fans as so many make it out to be. It was a very small percentage, who were not even booing Judge. By most accounts, they were booing the Yankees (Hal on down).
So, to keep that narrative going as if the entire fanbase turned against the players is only serving as confirmation bias, because it isn’t true. Anyone who actually goes to baseball games at Yankee stadium knows that.
If you want a good, objective view on the matter, listen to David Cone’s assessment of this ordeal.
Yeah Clip it is beyond tiresome. Also, I have yet to hear 1 serious Yankee fan say that they would rather have Carlos Correa than Aaron Judge on the team.
Agreed clip. If judges ego is that fragile, maybe he should leave New York. I don’t think it is. Players know that they will be booed with a bad performance, it’s a part of the game.
This precisely. Anyone bidding for his services is already factoring in the certainty that his final 2-3 years will be as a DH and not in the OF. I suspect Zaidi and the Giants are approaching it that way, and that comes after initial reports of their meeting last week were very positive. So the Giants are already planning this way.
That’s why no one should be surprised if the Giants make it hard on the Yankees and Dodgers by tossing him a 8/$300M or even a 8/$320M offer.
I could envision the Dodgers coming in at 9/375 and blow away everyone.
They’d be bidding against themselves
And the Dodgers would still find a way to avoid playing in the World Series.
Roberts won a ring in 2020
Yep – and there’s no denying any of them that ring, either.
But for me, 2020*, with its regular season of 60 games (not a number that characterizes an actual MLB “season”) – will always carry an asterisk.
Individual player stats were way out of whack that year too, along with their general health, game conditioning and availability – across the league. The whole thing was a skewed mess.
I’d love him be a lifetime yankee, but if he signs somewhere else please do it soon, before all the FAs are gone.
Twins – one year 50 million
I get your point, but with George gone or even here, I wouldn’t trust Cashman to fill out the roster to make it better. Let alone to reach the World Series.
I predict Judge will get 9 years, 360MM.
That wouldn’t surprise me at all, but I predict 8/340.
They will continue to wait as other teams improve. This team with judge has lots of holes.
Enough to maybe make the playoffs but be eliminated. Same story different year. George is spinning
These players don’t understand something. If the owners paid the players the money they want.
Eventually nobody is gonna be able to attend any of the games because it’s gonna be too expensive. In order for the owners to pay the players they need fans in the seats. fans are not able to afford to attend a game and owners don’t have the money to pay the players.
Of all the restrictions major-league baseball has on the owners and players they don’t have a cap on the salary. There is a league minimum for players but they don’t have a cap.
Although there is a luxury tax there is not a dollar amount that cannot be exceeded.
Agree, however if an idiot like cashman trades for josh Donaldson and that ridiculous contract then why is he still around.
Good gms can make it work with lower payrolls
Obviously this is true. There are numerous examples around the league, Tampa, the Astros of course and other teams. Cashman there’s nothing able to get to the World Series in 12 years, with the immense resources of the Yankees.
I’d love to hear about these amazing GM’s that don’t make any bad deals.
So would I. I don’t think anybody said there were any great GM’s that never make bad deals.haha.
As long as TV revenue continues to rise the owners can continue to pay out big bucks. Stadium attendance is just icing on the cake. Once TV revenues stagnate/fall, then the contracts will start to decrease and with less term. Or you’ll see the superstar players continue to get big bucks and lower level players will be squeezed on their contracts and be replaced by younger players.
Putting a viable, competitive team on the field is a financial service to the local community. It needs to be dependable to be built around…… TV bucks or not…..just like a concert, that’s a lot of people with wallets….
Oak vs Bos
Puzzing
The new architectural ideas of integrating arenas in a public mall/ park setting has the potential to be pretty out there / new age experience…..
Just think, if the cities had bought the teams back in the 70s or 80s instead of paying more to build stadiums……
(or the local hospital, run it kinda like the Hughes or Getty foundations)
I’m not a commie. My only concern is the price of hotdogs.
Make offer. Make final offer with a date. This team needs help and signing judge may not even have this team as a playoff team.
Final offer and date. He doesn’t sign then trea turner
How long is Judge healthy and productive for? 4-5 years?
I’ll take the under.
These projections are all too low. I heard that Ronaldo is getting offered 120 mil a year to go play for Saudi Arabia…On a 3 year deal…Judges AAV has to be higher.
No cap in soccer!
Just cut him in for part ownership of the team. The union will allow that probably right?
Judge bet on himself and went on to have one of the best years in New York Yankee history. Time to pay up! He has been under paid for 6 years, and now he will be over paid for 8.
i think you’re on to something. They just paid 20M a year for a 2 WAR guy like Rizzo. Based on that, Judge is worth at least 100M per year.
Vagiants fans are going to be highly disappointed when Judge returns to NY!
Baseball doesn’t work like the NBA, where one star can help lead his team to a title. Or the NFL, where you seldom win w/o a great QB. No, even a guy like Judge won’t put any team over the top, no matter how good the team may already be. It just doesn’t work like that. That doesn’t mean that I dont want my team to sign him; you just have to be realistic with your expectations. But there is value in getting the fanbase excited, leading to increased revenue thru ticket sales & merch. And it sends a clear message to other players that you’re serious. But to expect him to lead a team to the promised land is pure folly. Folly I say!! haha
Judge hasn’t helped this team win a World Series even being paid through arbitration let alone making superstar money
Winning or even getting into the WS requires a good team, not just a superstar player. The Yankees not getting into the Series is a reflection of the quality of their team as opposed to a negative on Judge
Nobody on the team has helped them win a World Series, so…they all need to go!
Even though it’s true that one player is not enough on a baseball team, judge with something like one out of 16 against the Astros. Not what you want. If he had even had a pedestrian performance , if perhaps 3 or 4 hits out of the 16, it might’ve helped us to beat the Astros, especially if they were in key spots or home runs. So in that case one player could’ve made a big difference.
I’m a Yankee fan. If Judge went 8-16, they wouldn’t have won the series.
Not a great series, but making him the fall guy is ridiculous. They wouldn’t even have been there!
I don’t know if you responding to me but I am not making him the full guy. But he is a superstar, and it’s natural to expect more from him. Stop it I was just making an observation and a comment. And you have no no way of knowing that if he had 7 more hits in the series ,that we could not have won the series, or at least a few more games anyway. At least one game. Seven more hits could’ve been quite impactful. This is just my opinion. Obviously since it did not happen, we have no way of knowing what would have happened.
I can literally say that about anyone though I don’t know of anyone that’s going to go 12 for 16 against that Astro staff.
“Judge hasn’t helped this team win a World Series”
The Yankees wouldn’t have had a chance of making the postseason without Judge. You can’t win a World Series when you end the season in third or fourth place.
This kind of nonsense is one good reason why Judge would be wise to go home to Northern California. Does he want to listen to more boos from Yankee fans after carrying the team all year?
Go west, young man.
Pink, in the immortal words of the famous Manny Machado, great players expect to be booed, it does not bother them. He was speaking of himself, but still a little plays.
Manny was talking about being booed by the other team’s fans, as was Reggie when he said, “Fans don’t boo nobodies.”
Pink that is quite true, I remember the occasion well. My point still stands however. Booing is a part of the game ,whether it’s your own fans or the other teams. oh and by the way, the wording of what exactly he said apparently is in dispute, because where I read it ,he said pretty much what I had stated in my previous post. So it seems he may have expressed himself in different ways to different writers, or he was quoted incorrectly somewhere. It doesn’t really matter though.
Mike Schmidt in a wig. Classic.
Nobody is going to take on Hicks after the year he just had.
Sorry, but he ain’t worth it.
In sum, w/ the penalties, Judge may cost up to an additional $68m in luxury tax penalties, and even if the Yankees are prudent to the point of risking a postseason slot, he may cost them ‘only’ $30-40m in addition to his salaries over the life of the deal, hamstringing the team in various ways.
8/$336m is more like it in practice—a $42m AAV.
Let him walk. Sign Nimmo and go from there.
Everywhere there are comments about how all Judge wants is to win titles. Don’t believe it. What he wants is the very last dollar out of whichever club is foolish (and desperate) enough to pay him. And, once thusly hobbled, he/they will embark on a long period of losing and mediocrity. I say let him walk and use the money to grab two starters and a Nimmo type OF.
Judge should be signed for 15 years/$1.5B w/ escalators of $250k per plate appearance, per recorded AB, per walk, $250k per game started, $250k per game appeared in, $250k for every day he’s on the 40 man roster or active roster, etc. $25M for MVP, $20M for top 5 MVP, $25M for Silver Slugger, for Golden Glove etc. and then have all that matched to the All Rise charity.
Completely reasonable.
And we all know the team that can make this happen:
The Orioles.
Mic Drop.
All contracts should be a modest base with a series of additional bonuses for reaching various tiers of home runs, runs scored, rbi, batting average, stolen bases etc, similar structure for pitchers. One year earnings could be sky high for any player in the league if they have a great year. A rookie could make $40mm in their first year if they have hit enough tiers. Then They start each year back at the base salary. But that defeats the purpose of free agency, other than to simply want to change teams. But it would make baseball a lot more entertaining because the players then only eat what they catch. And start hungry each year.
As much as I’d love to see that, there’s no way to be certain of a budget any given year with that system. That would be the most fair-merit based. But I think the imperfect system we currently have is close to best.
Overpay later for underpaying earlier and let the cycle repeat every year with new rookies, new free agents, aging superstars, pre arbitration future stars etc.
Guest678 – that works in theory but the truth of the matter is you cannot have a system based on hard statistics ( number of home runs, stolen bases etc) without having issues down the line. Player needs 1 hr to make an extra $1MM will swing for the fences when he needs to just move the runner over. Manager gives player a days rest and they end up just missing a bonus? hello grievance or lawsuit. Players will complain even more about where they bat in the lineup etc etc. What could be possible is a modest base salary with an end of the yr bonus within a certain range and then goto arbitration to determine final bonus. That would take into account all aspects of game. That would still have major flaws though
Grievances wouldn’t be an issue. Performance escalators already exists. The arguement that wins against the grievance is the player had all the other games to hit that Mike stone and didn’t and there is no guan ranger they would have hit that milestone in the given day off. Budgets wouldn’t be an issue because the owners would gladly pay them he players hitting all the escalators because those would be the players driving attendance and apparel sales. Players already swing for the fences when moving a runner over is needed, this baseball in the 2020s. Why it would never work it it would remove competitive balance. Other than owners not wanting to have too many high performance paid players in there team there would be nothing to keep players from just teaming up on a single team.
I believe that all performance rewards are based on awards ( mvp, silver slugger, GG things that would not be overly changed by several in game decisions) which are voted on rather than a hard stat number. Bryce Harper may have a $500K bonus for top 5 MVP but you won’t see one for 100 rbi’s or 20 steals. Options kick in on availability and appearances but you won’t see a player with an option that kicks in at 30 HR’s or WAR. I still think that there would be a large increase in grievances but I guess to what extent is debatable.
They are also At Bat’s or Plate Appearances or Innings Pitched based, I believe- with the understanding that the incentives are small enough for the team that if a player is performing well the team would have no problem with the incentives being triggered- there’s already some controversy over AB’s, Innings pitched etc that could trigger an option becoming guaranteed for players with a very legitimate history of injuries limiting their playing time while getting paid in a way assuming the value comes from the amount the player plays- guys who need a full year to achieve the stats/WAR that band then worth the salary vs guys like Byron Buxton, or Jacob DeGrom, etc. who produce like they’d be worth 12 WAR/$60M a season over a full year, but are known to always miss 40% of the games.
So then a base with playing time bonuses is extremely appropriate.
Buxton’s deal is honestly perfect for him. But it’s not a fair deal for most players.
They exist in other sports as well. Bonus for yardage, catches and touchdowns exists in the NFL. Again it could never happen for the reasons I gave and more but it is great solution for distribution of pay across all players, some one Julio Rodriguez would have made a huge salary last year compared to the league minimum, while Miguel Cabrera would have not made as much. Also fixed the arbitration issue where someone like Bellinger makes big money because of an MVP season but is significantly worse there after and arbitration will never take money away when it is warranted.
A simple example for offensive players using $10k/game started, $100k/HR, $75k/3b, $50k/2b, $25k/1b, $10k/BB, $75k/run, $75k/rbi, $10mm for hitting over .300, $7.5mm for hitting over .275 or $5mm for hitting over .250(only one payout for BA). Judge would have made $42.2mm for last year while Miggy would have made $9.65mm. Instead Judge made $19mm last year while Miggy made $32mm. Eventually a young player will sign something like that. Needs to adjusted for fielding bs games at DH and other defensive metrics, but this was just a bare bolts exercise.
Really excited about Judge coming home to SF! Farhan will beat any AAV NYY offers. It’s done.
As a Giants fan, my worry is that his first choice really is to remain a Yankee for life. So, after the bidding gets all the offers jacked into the stratosphere, he’ll be content take slightly less from the NYY. If that’s where he truly wants to be, a couple of % points isn’t going to matter when the guarantees reach a third of a billion-plus. The Giants (and/or Dodgers) will simply have served as enormous stalking horses.
It feels like that’s what’s happening.
Great picture of Judge btw.
Amazing how guys manage to have their career season the year before free agency. He was very good before when healthy, too……but he’s 31 years old already. The Yankees can afford the risk.
Not that amazing as players tend to hit free agency around the peak of their career.. Of course what Judge did was ridiculous lol
“The Yankees can change that calculus by finding a taker on Donaldson and Hicks.”
Hmm, where can we find someone dumb enough to agree to this?
I got it! A’sFanInUk or JackStraw??
Do you guys know any baseball people as dumb as you??!!!
Lmao
One day Scott Boras Jr. Will sign a player for $100 Mil AVV
Maybe Scott Boras the 3rd.
So much for the Yankees not making their offers to Judge public.
My wife is a diehard Red Sox fans and for a couple of weeks now she has gone to bed each night praying that the Yankees sign Judge to the albatross contract that has been predicted of 8/332.
Testing
When Judge starts putting up regular season numbers in the playoffs then we can talk 300+.
All im going to say is – Kevin Brown
No player worth the contract they recieve!
Large market team will sign another big star. Yawn.
In situations like this, the Yankees should think about what the Tampa Bay Rays would do? What would the Houston Astros do? Well, they would let him walk and spend the money wisely elsewhere. So…
The potential contract for Judge is crazy–but it’s also what the market will bear. The signing team, Yankees or not, will have the financial firepower to do it, and that’s because the game is awash in money–and so much money that it can pay for teams to tank completely and pocket the profits. To the fans who grumble about high salaries and high ticket prices,,,,fair, but where’s the alternative? Do we see big discounts on ticket prices when a team has dumped everything at midseason? Will the Cubs cut prices when they are out from under the Hayward deal, or the Tigers Cabrera’s? I don’t think so. Judge will get his money, as will every other high tier free agent. It’s not their responsibility to refuse it.
100% “mute button”. Astros already let Correa and Springer walk who missed a lot of games in non-contract years (like Judge). Didn’t miss them a bit. Instead they brought JV back for a sane price short-term, extended Alvarez and will likely try with Valdez/Tucker later. Difference is they develop players better. It’s also why they will find better ways to spread the money than outbidding for JV if a bigger market team desperately pays him 40+ for 3 years. In the end, $$ get spent, but it’s not in fanboy fashion where simpletons call FO’s cheap for not giving 1 guy insane l-t contracts relative to their age and/or injury history.
If the Yankees want to win then let him go! Upgrade in multiple positions and have a TEAM
All that matters in life is the money. When you sign on with Boras it is even more obvious
The truth be told, Mr. Boras spends most of his time looking like Mickey Dolenz.
Establishing a new AAV record among position players would surely be of interest to Judge
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I don’t know if that’s true, and don’t call me Shirley.. It just feels like you are painting all players as being greedy. I’d say it is more likely than not that, assuming the offers are at least somewhat similar, he will take less from NYY.
Even us commoners will occasionally turn down more money for more comfort.
Judge will become the highest paid per K star in baseball
@jack exactly… and btw I’d be the biggest hypocrite if I didn’t acknowledge trout is hurt basically every year now for a period, something judge was from 2018-20 but not the last two years. And at their level, if you’re not playing, you’re hurting the team even more than normal if there’s no quality depth. It’s my knock on a lot of guys that have great relative numbers but always seem to miss significant time. That goes for trout too, even if he’s off the charts when he does play.
Just sign with some team already.
You are holding up the market for everyone else!
The Yankees can and will win with or without Judge.
They might be better off signing multiple players to offset Judge’s offense
if Judge signs elsewhere.
OK, let’s preface this by saying its far fetched fantasy… But. I would love to see the Marlins, sign Judge, for a record AAV, with a talented young pitching staff in the wings and an exciting outlooking going forward. And, the Irony of the Yanks with Stanton and the Fish with Judge would be outstanding IMO. The only thing better would be the Marlins defeating the Yankees in the World Series, then trading Judge back to NY for the balance of the contract.
It’s only a small market fan dream of Yankee fans’ heads exploding all at the same time. “sigh” one can dream.
Some time ago, I said here that I had a funny feeling — based on nothing in particular — that the Yankees might sign Bogaerts. I’d heard nobody in the sports press or blogosphere suggest it at the time, but yesterday Buster Olney said in a podcast that he thought the Yankees might pivot to Bogaerts if they let Judge walk.
Love the Judge, but if he does go to San Francisco as I predicted here long ago, I would be content with the following three signings as a viable option to spending $300M+ to keep him:
Rodon
Bogaerts
Nimmo
Based on the free agent salaries projected by MLBTR, those three would cost roughly $140M more than Judge alone.
Would Hal spend that much? Probably not. So here’s another option.
Bogaerts and Nimmo would cost roughly the same as what the Yankees reportedly have already offered Judge, $300M. Sign those two, and then trade from the Yankees’ surplus of young middle infielders to acquire a starting pitcher.
What say you, Yankee fans?
Whether Judge signs with the Giants or the Yankees, his decision could make for an especially interesting Opening Day next year:
mlb.com/schedule/2023-03-30