The Yankees are expected to put forth a contract offer to Carlos Rodón in the coming days, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman has suggested on a few occasions the Yankees have serious interest in the top free agent starter remaining, and putting a formal proposal on the table would mark a notable step in that pursuit.
Terms of the proposal aren’t clear, though Heyman reiterates that New York is reluctant to offer the seven-plus guaranteed seasons the southpaw and his representatives at the Boras Corporation reportedly seek. A seventh year is a lofty goal for Rodón’s camp, assuming they’re not banking in a notable dip on an annual basis to compensate for the longer term. That doesn’t appear to be the case, as Heyman writes they’re looking for a deal that tops $200MM in guarantees.
That’s rare territory, as only six pitchers have surpassed the $200MM mark. Gerrit Cole stands head and shoulders above the pack at $324MM over nine years, with the rest of the group checking in between $206.5MM and $245MM. Stephen Strasburg, David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke are the only other hurlers to reach that level. A handful of additional free agent pitchers (Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, CC Sabathia and Barry Zito) have reached seven-plus years on deals under $200MM, but that’s itself a rare occurrence for a pitcher.
At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $140MM guarantee for Rodón. The free agent rotation market has generally been more robust than anticipated, and at least a six-year deal now seems very attainable for the two-time All-Star. Landing a seventh season at an annual salary below that projected $28MM — thereby decreasing the deal’s average annual value and lowering the luxury tax hit for a signing team — could be on the table. That’s been a common strategy this offseason, with Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Brandon Nimmo all taking slight discounts on a per-year basis for very long deals with larger guarantees than forecasted. The best of both worlds for Rodón, of course, would be a seven-year term that doesn’t relinquish anything on an annual basis. It remains to be seen if a team will go to those lengths, with a seven-year pact requiring at least $28.57MM in annual salary to get to $200MM total.
Rodón is the only free agent ace still available. Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander were the two free agent hurlers who could rival or best Rodón from a performance perspective. Their ages limited them to shorter deals (five and two years, respectively) than the one Rodón is seeking. At age 30, the former third overall draftee has arguably the best combination of performance track record and youth among this year’s class of hurlers. However, he’s not without some question marks as a player with a Tommy John surgery and a shoulder procedure on his injury history.
The North Carolina State product stayed healthy in 2022, tossing a career-high 178 innings of 2.88 ERA ball for the Giants. He was brilliant for a second straight season, striking out a third of opponents with solid control. On a rate basis, he’s one of the sport’s top pitchers, but he doesn’t have the workload track record of any pitcher who’d previously gotten to $200MM.
Cole, Strasburg, Price, Kershaw, Scherzer and Grienke had all had multiple seasons with 200+ innings pitched prior to inking their megadeals; Rodón has never gotten to that level. Workload for starting pitchers continues to dwindle, though, and it stands to reason teams will increasingly value per-inning performance while weighing workload volume less as expectations for pitcher roles change.
New York and the incumbent Giants have been tied to Rodón on a few occasions, and Heyman added the Cardinals as a team with interest over the weekend. The Rangers, Mets and Blue Jays were tied to him earlier in the offseason, but Texas later added Andrew Heaney to join deGrom while Toronto agreed to terms with Chris Bassitt this evening. The Mets landed each of Verlander, José Quintana and Kodai Senga. The Orioles, Red Sox and Twins have also been very loosely linked to Rodón in prior reports, although the extent of the interest of all three clubs isn’t clear.
I want him badly but I don’t want the Yankees to be stupid and overpay.
Injury History + Boras = Buyer Beware
Somebody’s going to give him $200m. It won’t be STL and as much as I’d like Rodon at the top of their rotation, I’m glad it won’t be.
Same here. Way too much risk
Yes, $200 million for 7 years is way too much for Rodon, even though I like him as a solid #2 or #3 in any rotation. I hate the overpay. 6 years, $175-180 definitely seems fair enough.
The market is nuts this year. I thought the angels overpaid for Anderson at the beginning of free agency, and that contract looks great now, just one man’s opinion. Pitchers, in general, are getting paid. Nice year to be a reliever free agent .
When it comes to FA, what does “overpay” mean?
mike – The market is nuts every year.
Was it sane in 2019 when Cole got $324M and both Rendon & Strasburg got $245M each?
realsox – It means paying more than market value to outbid the competition.
Overpaying is a necessity when heavily pursuing elite talent that other teams are also heavily pursuing.
I was thinking the same thing
Last offseason the AL Cy Young winner got 115mil / 5 if I’m not mistaken ? Gausman 100 /5
Rodon hoping to get close to double 1 year later .
As a Jays fan makes me wish they would have signed Bo and / or Vlad last season , alot more expensive to extend now . Flip side AA in ATL extending his entire roster looks genius now with how large a jump the market has taken
Jobba – You are 100% correct about the Braves, extending your own players well in advance is the smart thing to do.
The Braves and Astros are what teams like the Red Sox should be emulating.
I thought that was a great pickup for the Angels. I believe if he would have been more patient he could have added significantly more cash to his deal.
@CaptainJudge99: Fans like us are in no position to say in a vacuum what number is or isn’t fair. The player’s fair market value is the best deal he can get from the highest bidding team. Basic market economics.
@Fever Pitch Guy: By definition, there’s no such thing as “more than market value” because a free agent’s market value is the best deal he can get from the highest bidder. The market determines the value.
At least Cole is going to eat innings. Rodon might fall apart.
Rodon has shown over the last two seasons that he’s the real thing. He had arm fatigue at the end of the 2021 season but rest during the off season cured that. As the article noted that pitchers throwing 200+ innings is coming to an end with managers pulling starters after five innings. As for tj surgery, what pitcher hasn’t had it? I would hate it if he went to the nyy, and the money any of these players get doesn’t bother me because I’m not paying it.
but of course, everyone assume acuna, strider, etc will not be busts. who woulda though bellinger would have hit a wall so bad after his MVP season. it’ll be interesting if any braves that got extended end up being a mistake for the team. hard to picture it but time will tell
That’s a good point . Ofcourse there is inherently risk built in to those extensions but given how large a leap the market took this winter is a plus for the Braves . Also Bellinger is a good point but such a dramatic fall for a star of his caliber is not all that common. Atleast not that large a fall for a player his age.it is concerning having 2 players like that in belli and yelich . My biggest worry as a Jays fan is vladdy turning into Bellinger . Not warranted but to see a former mvp on the right side of 30 fall off a cliff sucks and I don’t think is good for baseball
You contradicted yourself…at that range why not go the 7 yrs as that amounts to what he’s asking for per yr? In 7 years that price is a lowball with inflantion.00
Thing is Blue, anyone can say whatever they would like. I personally agree with CaptJ99. $200 million over 7 years ( through his age 37 year) is an absolute overpay for a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history and much smaller window of being considered an ace level starter. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see him as the Yankees #2 for 6 year max $180 max.
So one extra year at a discounted $20 mil would get you to say no? You do realize that’s 3 starter money.
Yes, it’s supply and demand, players are driving this winter free agency!
The Mets giving Brandon Nimmo that contract just basically changed the market for average outfielders. You can hit .270 with no power or speed and still make 20 million a year.
I don’t think they offered more than five years. I think 6 years 180 would be a good offer. His agent may think otherwise.
He had shoulder surgery. He needs to shorten his swing. He has trouble hitting hit high fastballs. I hope he does well in Chicago.
Yankees i would imagine feel like they have to keep pace with the Mets. The Yanks as long as I know have been the big dog in NYC and with the Mets, or Cohen, going insane with handing out the cabbage I would be surprised to see the Yanks give him 170-180 over 7. It’s funny when the Yankees feel like they are being out spent
No @Murphy they have to keep up with the Astros. My guess is the Giants will out bid them, but we’ll see.
Yankees will always be the big dog. It’s not necessarily about being the better team. The Mets were better in the 80s for example. But the Yankees are an international franchise like Manchester United. You won’t see many Mets hats in London or Tokyo, but you’ll see a Yankee cap or two.
This is absolutely right. I studied abroad in college, and Yankee hats were all over the place in the major cities I visited and stayed. All 2 euro knockoffs but the brand sells itself everywhere…
Everything changes. Nothing is permanent.
I think the Yankees need to be more concerned with the Astros than the Mets.
This 100%. The Astros have completely embarrassed them in the playoffs consistently. That’s the goal for the Yanks: compete with the Astros. Ironically, I think it’s going to take Correa to do it. You become what you hate.
No need for Correa on the Yankees, they have Peraza already. Correa can go to Boston to replace Xander Bogaerts at shortstop.
Rofl as if Chaim Bloom is going to sign Carlos Correa after he wouldn’t make a lesser deal with the fan-favorite Xander Bogaerts.
True, the Yankees are more concerned with the Astros than the Mets. It’s the media spin that determines which team owns the city. The media, especially TV, crams the Yankees down our throats by showing their games more than any other team even though the Mets might be the better team. I hardly know anything about the Diamondbacks, Rangers, Marlins, etc. because the networks don’t show their games. The same happens in Chicago. When Bill Veeck owned the Sox, he kept track of how much press his team got compared to the cubs. The cubs got more than twice as much. I’ll always hate the yanks and the cubs, but it’s only sports. It’s not serious hatred.
Why? They are competing with the Mets for fans, ticket sales, market share and not with the Astros.
Contending teams can’t make the mistake of chasing other teams. Every year another contender steps up, they just need to focus on improving their teams and targeting their weakness. If you have a weakness, the ball will find it.
The Yankees don’t care about the Mets who play in the National League.
That line has kind of blurred with so-called interleague play.
Sure, which means they want Rodon to be a better team against all teams. They’re not making PR moves because of the Mets. They’re the Yankees.
That’s ludicrous. The Mets are their direct competition for market share.
No. THAT’s ridiculous. The Yankees have their own fan base. Maybe you’re suggesting that Mets fans switch allegiance based upon which team is winning more, but I sure doubt it! Yankee fans don’t. They are Yankee fans. What market share are the Yankees worried about from the Mets? Yankee fans are tuned into and motivated by what their team is doing. I do think it’s possible that having BOTH NY teams winning can create extra excitement that can help drive attendance on both sides, but the Yankees are worried about their own team and their own fans. The Mets don’t play into the equation beyond they have to play each other six times (I think it’s six times) a year now. The who “owns” NY thing is very much a Mets fan obsession that the media plays off of. It’s not real from the Yankees side. Both teams have their dedicated fan bases, but the Yankees are the Yankees.
Name one player that the Yankees didn’t overpay for.
Babe Ruth
He had a better year then the President.
Word is he prefers the East Coast, similar to Turner. Maybe that’s just a convenient leak from his agent to get the Giants to up their offer, but my guess is he will be a Yankee.
Speaking of Turner, looks like he and Rodon were teammates at NCSU? If so, quite the recruiting pitch to Wolfpack recruits!
If you aren’t overpaying, then you are not landing premium players in FA.
SupremeZeus, that is true. One, however, might say even a six-year deal is an overpay. Be it from the Yankees or some other team, I am curious what he will get and for how many years. He’s a great pitcher, but his injury past is concerning. All pitchers are injury risks, but some are higher than others. This guy is in the red zone, but he’s also so damn good, hence the dilemma teams are balancing.
6/200M is my prediction.
SupremeZeus;
Just because an organization is overpaying and landing premium players in FA doesn’t mean they go to the World Series….or even
get close to one.
The stinky cologne of desperation to win a WS will do that to you
Mets?
The years are the problem. Pay the guy but maybe 4 years tops.
Then how do they sign him? Thats the very nature of free agency. EVERY high end signing is an overpay.
Competition drives up the price.
Judge was also an overpay.
I’m just saying 7 years is a non starter. Barry Zito is the ghost of Christmas past
I don’t think you have to worry about that, they won’t.
If they try to lowball him another team will pay him. Perhaps Minn.
Yankees about to make formal offer to Rodon all but assures Zaidi will lose another FA to Cashman.
What’s everybody’s guess? I’m gonna say 6/180
7 for 205
7 for $200Mil
7/220
Just hope Boras doesn’t tie them on Rodon and they lose out on a left fielder.
They could always make a deal with the Diamondbacks. That team has quite a few.
None that are any good, Varsho is intriguing though.
7/196
6years with a 7th option & $10MM Buyout with the total amount bringing it to like…… $205MM
5/150
Imagine giving Rodon 200m…
Rodon should thank the White Sox for not making a QO after 2021.
Arm fatigue gave the Sox the perfect excuse not to offer him a QO.
Well the Yankees haven’t had much success developing great starting pitching in recent years so they have to trade for it or buy it. Lucky for them there’s plenty of cash to go around if Hal allows it anyways.
Obviously headed to the Mets. 7/210
If its to the mets than probably 6/400
Mets luxury tax estimated payroll at $350m, Yanks a mere $266m….
5 / $132.5
Pitching wasn’t the problem.
At those numbers, no thank you!
Corbin Burnes is rumored to be available, is a better pitcher, doesn’t have the injury history and is cheaper. Send a proper package and grab him instead!
JJ 7;
He’s not available.
Except the Brewers said Burnes, Woodruff and Adames are not being shopped.
It’s Jon Heyman talking about a Boras client.
Let me know when something actually happens.
In Heyman we don’t trust!
I believe they have a great shot to land him. Heard in one of the podcasts I trust two days ago that Yankees would have Rodon signed by Wednesday of this week, if he accepts their offer. Looks like it may play out that way.
The length of contract scares me though. But, we do need more pitching. And a LFer would help things along.
Plus, we kind of need an alpha pitcher to balance out Cole’s emotions.
Yeah, Clipper, my caveat with Rodon is that he has to come with a change of heart in Hal that says he’s not going to lock the vault if he gets burned again by a long-term contract. If he’ll keep spending to fill out the roster regardless of how Rodon’s contract plays out, then okay — it ain’t my money, and his dad’s spending only increased the value of the franchise over time and funded a ’90s dynasty.
I’m sure you’ll see something about Carolyn Rojo signing somewhere anytime now.
Don’t know if you guys heard it, but on Kay’s show he said Jack Curry talked to an inside source who confirmed the Yankees have not even contacted the Padres about Tatis, so that rumor is completely false.
Moreover, the Yankees were never in the bidding on Correa either, according to Kay’s source.
that will be the match made in hell.
Does anyone remember Don Gullett?
He was signed to a 6-year $2M contract in November 1976, and that was a HUGE contract at the time. The good news is he went 14-4 the first year. The bad is he had an arm injury the following year, and he was out of baseball shortly thereafter. Just sayin’
Great pitcher for the Reds but had elbow issues. Surprised he got a big free agent deal (at the time) and was proven right in the end.
Honestly don’t think Hal & Cashman are competing with Mets for back pages et al. That’s fan fiction. Same with geographic rivalries like NYM-PHI. Fans go crazy but the players? They are all bros. But it’s not as much fun knowing they aren’t like pro wrestling heels & faces right? So let’s keep Kayfabe
He has had just a couple healthy seasons, not much playoff experience. I would pass on a long term deal but might roll the dice on a 2 year.
Hahaha you’re talking about Rodon correct? Yes, definitely see him accepting a 2 year deal lol. What’s the AAV per year on your 2 year pack Heed?
Seven years would be insane. I hope the Yankees or Mets give him what he’s asking for.
Price of beer going up again.
I’m not sure the Yankees even want to go to 6 years with all of the lenghty contracts they already have on the books, but they might have to go that far because some team will give Rodon six years. The only team I see possibly giving him 7 years is the Orioles. They have a low payroll & are just starting to take steps forward. Going to a seventh year to land an ace won’t impact them going forward.
ericl;
The Orioles are not giving anybody a large 7 year contract….let alone a guy with an injury history and 2 good years since hitting the majors in 2015.
Great entertainment here though!
Farhan has not signed any pitchers to long term deals. I think Giants will pass on Rodon. Perhaps the Dodgers will sign him.
So this begs the question: Who is still in the bidding for Rodon? The Yankees, maybe the Rangers aren’t done, the Cardinals rumor is ridiculous, and who?
I seriously doubt the Dodgers will sign him or be seriously involved in discussions at all.
Don’t forget Ericl, Samuel knows absolutely everything! And is smarter than everyone! To the point that in order to accommodate that big brain, Samuels head is enormous! So much so that every time he sneezes, his chin hits himself in the balls! Haha
Very much believe the possibility of this story, but I think we’ve long since reached the point of never listening to Jon Heyman ever again. Society has moved past the need for Jon Heyman.
Cardinals make a move!theyve got like 7 #3-5 starters,good depth can get you to the playoffs. But, if you really want to contend you need a #1-2 starter. Quit wasting goldy and arenado. Go big!
It seems to me that paying for Rodon’s services would be akin to purposely stepping on a land mine and hoping it doesn’t explode when you step off.
Isn’t this “Yankees Preparing To Make Formal Contract Offer To Carlos Rodon” a case of too much information?
It is funny though. And what MLB free agency has come down to.
Imagine people getting all hot and lathered over this.
Heavens, Scott Boras loves to hold his name FA’s out until February.
Correa may miss out unless he signs in the next week. Swanson is an option for Giants and Minn.
ForeverGiantsFan;
I hope he’s reading your comment because he might miss out on
a lot of money.
Call the Twins offices in the morning and find out where you can send a telegram that will get to him before it’s too late!
I sure am glad the white sox didn’t give him a qualifying offer last year. God forbid we would have ended up “stuck” with him last year… we really dodged the playoffs… oops I mean oh never mind…
The Orioles offered 2 years at 2 dollars a season.. and a player option for 2 dollars and 25 cents in the third year. with them saying they were escalating the payroll and being players in free agency this season.
ginop;
Yuk Yuk Yuk
Don’t look now…..but the Orioles are one of the best organizations
in MLB and will be a contender for at least the next 5 years.
Orioles have a lot of good young players and might make some noise before their window closes and their players are signed by the large markets for big money that teams like the Orioles cannot afford.
And can someone explain why Rodon is considered an Ace? When I think of Ace, I think of Pedro or Kershaw in their prime! And of those 200m plus contracts for pitchers…how many have really worked out? Scherzer might be the BEST long term pitching contract ever, but the other big contracts…Price, Greinke and Strasburg have been very bad for the money! Now Rodon started with SIX below average seasons…and recently had TWO good season with 132 and 178 innings pitched…and now he is an Ace? Paying him big money for six or seven years is asking for disaster!!
Dave P;
Funny….isn’t it?
But hey, Rodon could be the next Stephen Strasburg!
Got the same agent.
I am hoping they don’t go past 5 years on any deal no matter the AAV and in a perfect world I’d prefer they offer him 3 years/$100M w/ a 4th year vesting option for $35M followed by a 5th year vesting option for $35M and if he doesn’t take that, they walk away.
Anything more than 3 years guaranteed is too risky no matter the AAV and to get to $200M or more the number of years or the AAV would be way too much for Rodon.
But I could see them biting the bullet and offering 6 years/$200.01M just to land him and to consider the second half of that contract a tax they paid to land him for the first 3 years or a gift they get under the scenario where he maintains his general value through at least 5 years.
I see SF offering 5/150 but secretly hoping they force Yanks up to 6/180
I’m guessing 6/180 is what it will have to be to get a “yes” right now
Yeah the 7/200 is a Boras wish.
Could happen though in this year’s crazy market.
3/180
As a yankees fan we should be prepared to screwed on this one. Carl Pavano pt 2
Chaim already folded. Hard to play poker when you are always playing with 2, 3,and 4s. It’s a deliberate stacked deck the Red Sox are playing with this offseason.
Worst fans in MLB…passed the Yankees.
Mute.
I don’t know if it is Bloom or Henry telling him to go cheap.
It’s funny, isn’t it, that the two Sox teams seem to be paralleling each other in futility this off season?
I don’t think the Yankee’s can afford not to sign him. Cole may pitch better with a new Ace on the staff. It can’t hurt that’s for sure. Maybe the Yanks catch a break an Cole opts out after 24, but let them not hold their breath even with inflated pay scales. I don’t think Rodon baths in spider tack either, so that’s cool. If the Yanks want to keep up with Houston, they need Rodon. p.s so does Godzilla !
There’s no way Cole would get more guaranteed money opting out from another team than if he stays with the Yankees on his current contract. At least that’s what it seems
Looking at the previous $200+ mil or seven year deals:
This will likely end up going about as well as the Strasburg, Price, Hampton, and Zito contracts.
Definitely won’t go as well as Cole, Kershaw, Scherzer, or Sabathia.
Might end up being on par with the Greinke and Brown contracts, but it’s doubtful. (Brown is super underrated, but even his production during that contract didn’t justify the price.)
Money talks Cashman will try to sign him. Bloom won’t do anything unless Rodon wants a one year contract. Was it Shaunessy who said the Red Sox were going to be big spenders this offseason? Yeah right with Bloom in charge, The “Pauper” of Tampa Bay in big market Boston. We should finish in 5th place behind Baltimore this year.
Whoever signs this guy is going to regret it.
Yankees look to sign contracts they regret all the time!
500 prior Innings of 100 era+
300 recent IP of 130 era+
That is one helluva payday based on recency. Id be hella leary.
Even if he produces 3 to 4 years on a 7 year deal and helps bring a championship it’s worth it
Rodon is a high risk statement signing that Hal and the Yankees may have cornered themselves into to secure Judge and appease the mob.
Not reading all these comments, but Heyman is the same donkey that said Arson Judge signed with the Giants.
A man who shaves his beard for a contract deserves neither!
Breaking News… AJ Preller reported saying, “Oh yeah, hold my beer and watch this!”
San Diego please hurry up to put in a bigger offer so he signs with the Yankees.
BMI = 30.6
Averages about 20 starts per year due to injuries.
Coming off his largest inning load.
It sounds like he’s already on the Yankees.
The BMI nonsense again.
As Dorothy Parker once said: “You can lead a horticulture, but you can’t make her think.”
Nevertheless, once more, with feeling:
3. It is physiologically wrong.
It makes no allowance for the relative proportions of bone, muscle and fat in the body. But bone is denser than muscle and twice as dense as fat, so a person with strong bones, good muscle tone and low fat will have a high BMI. Thus, athletes and fit, health-conscious movie stars who work out a lot tend to find themselves classified as overweight or even obese.
– from “Top 10 Reasons Why The BMI Is Bogus”
npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=10626843…
If Jon Heyman reports it, then it’s false news. He trolled Yankee fans by claiming Judge was heading to San Francisco. Guy has no noteworthy sources and he makes up articles for views. Not sure why MLBTR actually wastes the time creating articles based on what Heyman says because it’s a waste of time and most of the time it isn’t true. If Heyman says Rodon is going to the Yankees, what it really means is he’s going to the Pittsburgh Pirates
Right division, wrong team. Cardinals are feeling another splash
Don’t do it.
His numbers also look good pitching in Pac Bell park. (Oracle) Buyers beware and remember some of the other bay area pitchers who made the move to the stadium.
I have strong bones, good muscle tone, low body fat. I could do 60 sit-ups in 60 seconds, 50 push-ups in 60 seconds, run a 5K at 6:00 pace and throw a baseball past batters half my age when I was 40. BMI? 25.
Todays athletes are over-muscled behemoths with soft body parts constantly breaking down. All because they weigh too much for their own good. Sure, they can throw a baseball 100 MPH. POP! Done for a year and a half. Try to run? ZIP! Out for 3 months. Bend over to field a grounder? BOING! Out for 6 weeks. Slide into a base? POOF! Out for 2 months. Try to brush your teeth? PIFFT! Out for 3 weeks. Put your pants on? POOEY! Out for the postseason. And so it goes.