The Brewers have won their arbitration case against star righty Corbin Burnes, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter link). He’ll be paid $10.01MM this season rather than the $10.75MM for which his camp had filed.
A two-time All-Star, Burnes has finished in the top ten in NL Cy Young balloting in three consecutive seasons. He won the award in 2021 thanks to an MLB-best 2.43 ERA over 28 starts. Burnes wasn’t quite as dominant on a per-inning basis last year, allowing 2.94 earned runs per nine innings. He stayed healthy and threw a career-best 202 innings over 33 outings. Burnes led the National League with 243 strikeouts, fanning over 30% of opponents for a third straight season.
Burnes and the Brew Crew had avoided arbitration last offseason, agreeing to a $6.5MM salary for his first year of eligibility. They didn’t come to an agreement this time around, with a gap of a little less than $750K between their respective filing figures. Burnes ultimately lands shy of his asking price, though he’s still one of the higher-paid second-year arbitration players of the winter.
The Brewers control the St. Mary’s product through 2024. He’s slated to go through the arbitration process once more next offseason. His escalating salaries led to some speculation about the possibility of Milwaukee fielding trade interest on him, co-ace Brandon Woodruff or star shortstop Willy Adames this winter. Milwaukee quickly quashed any idea of moving those impact players, though, instead dealing more complementary pieces like Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong.
Burnes and Woodruff will front a rotation that should again be the club’s backbone. Freddy Peralta will occupy the third slot, with Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser and offseason signee Wade Miley vying for back-end roles. Young left-hander Aaron Ashby could get a rotation opportunity as well but is unlikely to be ready for the start of the season thanks to a shoulder concern.
hmmm…did the Brewers REALLY win? and less than $1m…ouch
Saving 750k today could save them millions throughout his remaining arbitration years though.
Jdgoat don’t even bother trying to explain it. It’s a lost cause with most on here.
The next biggest fight the union should have is to change the stats arbiters use in these hearings. Like what did they use wins? Not sure how he lost. Granted I haven’t looked at the comparables from years past. He’s about as reliable of a SP there is in todays game.
I can’t speak for everyone on here, but at least I understand why teams want to keep arbitration numbers low. It’s not exactly a secret. You’re acting like there’s some esoteric knowledge involved with arbitration and if fans could understand it, they wouldn’t always take the players’ side in disagreements. But really, we do understand the team’s perspective, it’s just incredibly short sighted of them to go to an arbiter over a few hundred thousand dollars if they plan on keeping the player happy when the time comes for discussing a long term deal. But you’re too busy licking owners’ boots to consider that aspect.
Bud Selig Fan
What one team does with their arby players salary figure affects all teams. Burnes wanted a new record for 2nd year pitcher arby and MKE went with the previous record set by Shane Bieber.
MLB teams didn’t want a new precedent set so they likely strongly suggested MKE hold the line. This is all interconnected. Burnes understands how this process works.
Do you really think a few hundred thousand now will lead to him taking millions less for multiple years later on? Maybe you’re too busy eating paint chips to really have an intelligent thought on the subject.
They’re not planning on keeping Burnes happy when it comes to extension time. He’ll be cashed in for prospects.
The organizations will fight in arbitration, regardless, but there’s even less incentive for a team to pay more to a player who’s not going to stick around for long.
Supposedly they blamed playoff short comings on him. Ruthless.
The Brewers should have given him the money… dude is ridiculous good at pitching
I am stunned!
I didn’t think it would go this way…….
Why fight a top 5 pitcher over chump change?
Because. You. Can. Think he was on the fence about re-signing and this was the tipping point? He’s still eating steak tonight.
The Brewers were never going to be able to sign him. He’s headed to a large market team. He will likely make a stop somewhere after this year. He could be gone at the deadline this year if the Brewers stumble out of the gate. They would maximize their return that way.
And with another year of cheap control in 2024, it’ll take a teams top prospects (plural) to get him.
A team like the Brewers should be looking at him as their potential franchise GOAT. The anchor of the rotation for years to come that is a Cy Young threat perennially. Expensive? Yeah. Worth it? No doubt. It’s a loser’s mentality to decide this early that “we can’t keep him”.
Yes this makes ZERO sense.
TV funding is getting pulled bally sports bankruptcy
If this means any less blackout restrictions from this idiocracy MLB has going preventing fanbases from seeing their teams play without subscribing to antiquated cable packages, then bankruptcy for the win! Unfortunately, hearing Manfred has a backup in-place after the 30-day grace period Bally has ends, leads to believe he’s securing an alternative that is just as exclusive to fans as the current scheme.
He already stated that the plan is to have in-market games available on mlb.tv for an upcharge.
Hey, ain’t you happy you cord cut?
I want to know the financial details for the teams. This could have a huge impact on revenues for 2023. The silence on that part of the plan is deafening.
The numbers are out there. The Cardinals current deal started in 2018 and the amount the team would receive started at $50 M for that season and increases every season, to $86 M in 2032. Average is roughly $66 M a season. The Cardinals keep 52% of that and the other 48% goes into the revenue sharing pool.
So figure the Cardinals lose $35 M – $40 M a year in revenue, minus whatever can be recouped from expanding mlb.tv.
Right, I understand that. It’s the amount MLB will replace that I want to know. This will affect revenue for all teams if the revenue sharing pool drops significantly; not just the teams contracted with Bally.
And that can’t be determined yet, because Diamond hasn’t officially declared bankruptcy and missed the payments to the MLB teams. MLB can’t announce what the alternative is until that point. Also, many reports I’ve been reading say that Diamond plans on keeping the RSNs going and not missing payments to the teams.
My sense is the RSNs will still broadcast their teams’ games and Diamond will get MLB to agree to let them stream their in-market broadcasts to subscribers of BallySports+. Right now, only five of the RSNs do this.
I’m not sure the bankruptcy judge will allow Diamond to prioritize paying MLB teams over making payments their other creditors. I’m certainly no bankrupcy expert and the GM bankruptcy showed the bankruptcy laws have become suggestions rather than hard laws. Bond holders were moved from the front of the line to the back of the line in that one. We’ll have to see what the judge decides.
Using available funds to keep the business as a going concern usually does take priority over creditors. It depends on if Diamond can successfully argue that without MLB games they would have to shut down completely. And they probably could.
… as long as Diamond can prove they will stay afloat with that plan. The longer they operate without hope of coming out, the more it increases the harm to their creditors. The key will be getting the creditors on board by showing the creditors they will recover more under the plan. The creditors will fight it to minimize their own losses if they don’t see gain in waiting it out.
That shouldn’t be hard. Diamond DOES turn a profit before having to make those interest payments to creditors. Without those interest payments, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.
Here’s a really good article on all this from fangraphs.
Your article does say this may result in major league teams not getting broadcast money this year. If that happems 14 of 30 teams won’t be putting into the revenue sharing pot but will be taking an equal share of the money the remaining 16 teams put into the pot. Everyone in MLB loses if those payments aren’t made.
I hope MLB takes this as an opportunity to do like the other major sports and centralize all media rights with the league, impliment full revenue sharing, and eliminating the CBT.
The most striking thing about the article is the fact that everyone seemed to know it was doomed going into the extremely levereged buy out.
The NBA and the NHL don’t have centralized media rights. The teams in those leagues sell their local media rights, same as MLB.
That is true but 100% of it is pooled and shared. I view that as better than CBT for equalizing revenue.
Should have just paid it with the hope of some future good faith.
No I’ll will toward you, slidepiece, but when was the last time a player gave a team a discount when they hit free agency due to the team “just paying them” what they wanted during a run through arbitration? People keep bringing this up as a possibility, but I’m genuinely interested in seeing where there is precedence for this.
Everyone always brings up the show of good faith for the team but they can never provide multiple examples of superstars staying with a team and saving the team millions for a team friendly deal because a team paid them 150k more pre arb. It’s such nonsense that I haven’t seen one intelligent person ever mention it.
“If we give him an extra $750 K for this season, it will increase the chance of him taking $10 M a year less for multiple years later on.”
Solid logic there.
Players do factor in sentiment. Judge took less from the Yankees than the Padres were offering him. Reports said NY just had to get to a certain threshold for the money to not matter, hence why he didn’t go to SD.
Did Judge really take less? He signed with the Yankees for $360 M over 9 years. That’s $40 M per. Reports say the Padres offered $400 M over 14 years. That’s $28.57 per.
Would the positive sentiment of getting an extra $750 K this season be enough to cause Burnes to sign for $25 M or so a season instead of $35 M plus per season in free agency? Is $750 K now enough to entice him to give up $50 M-$70 M?
400 is less than 360, so yes.
If you read Burnes’ quotes about the situation, it isn’t about the money anymore. It’s that he had to listen to his employer slander his elite performance to justify paying him less. If there was a chance for an extension (no one knows how likely it was), it’s basically destroyed now.
And 28 is way less than 40.
Also, that’s what happens in EVERY arbitration hearing. That Burnes then whined like a female dog shows that he’s very thin-skinned. I hope he isn’t planning to sign in a hostile media environment like New York or Boston.
So your view is that Judge strictly cared about AAV? Or am I mistaken?
You’re a Brewers fan and you’re calling Burnes a “whiny female dog” for being upset that his boss blamed him for them not making the playoffs? Interesting.
– Arenado took less money to stay with STL
– Corey Hart took less money to stay in MIL
– Mauer took less money
– Pedroia took less money
Again, plenty of examples of guys taking less money. Basically every guy who signs an early extension is taking less money. You might say it’s because they are “afraid to bet on themselves”, but there’s literally no proof of that. All you can go on is what they say which is:
– They like the team
– They like their chances to win there
– They like the city
The only time you can, with certitude, say that a player primarily or only cares about the money is when they tell you that explicitly. That seems to have been the case with Correa and looks to be the case again with Machado.
Bad move by the Brewers. with such a small difference they should have just paid him. A silly amount for an MLB team to quibble over.
And silly for the player to quibble too. He should have just taken the original offer in good faith that the team would pay him later.
Absolute loser mindset
That’s all you got? When people don’t have a reasonable response to something that doesn’t fit their agenda they typically resort to put-downs.
This is the Brewers… I agree they should have paid him, but didn’t you hear attendance is down and bally sports declared bankruptcy, which provides a good chunk of TV revenue to teams like the Padres, Brewers, pirates, Reds, cardinals, Royals and virtually every other small market team
I’m a brewers fan but didn’t they receive 30 million from Disney? Every team did….. and with revenue sharing that’s a lot of money… and IF Bally pays that covers the entire payroll… that’s without a single fan at a game… yet we reduce payroll???? I’m NOT happy with our owner right now… where did all that money go? It’s paying for his soccer team he just bought… there’s no reason we cry wolf… you got that money… I understand a 200 million payroll is not realistic but 150 should be easy… let alone your always in the upper end of attendance it’s a slap in the face to the fans to take burnes to arbitration… let alone you traded hader for nothing (don’t tell me Contreras he was not part of that deal) it’s a bad look.. I honestly believe that’s why stearns stepped down his hands where tied…
Hands tied where?
He’ll get by fine with the “losing” $10.1MM hand he was dealt. I also expect he will eventually be dealt himself. He’s getting expensive and has only two seasons of control before free agency.
Him losing means ownership wins. I’m sure the extra $750k is hugely meaningful to a billionaire.
I could see him being traded… like renfroe and Wong and so on and so on
It doesn’t seem like the money is his main beef anymore. It’s that he had to listen to his employers slander his contributions and place at his feet the blame of organizational failure last year.
This is interesting for a couple reasons, but overall appears lower than it should be, objectively considering market comps. Woodruff received more, Fried received more, and MLBTR contributor, Matt Schwartz, anticipated Burnes to be at a more robust $11.4MM (which makes more sense to me). Not to mention that despite only one additional year in the arb system, other pitchers received more than Burnes who had been a top-tier product in MLB. Two examples are Josh Hader, who was paid roughly $14MM, and Jordan Montgomery who was paid the same as Burnes.
May be just me but it seems he should be paid more than both Hader & Monty despite both having one-year longer in tenure.
Matt Swartz is usually pretty close on his predictions, so you’re right. Makes it even more surprising he lost.
Hader and Woodruff both Super 2. Burnes is not.
That makes more sense, but Woodruff / Burnes have just over four years service time and Hader, a reliever, is only a year ahead. I didn’t think it would make that much of a difference given the evaluations are due, in part, on performance. I appreciate that as it doesn’t shed a bit more light in it.
Montgomery got as much as Burns. That’s unbelievable. I like Montgomery but he’s no where near Corbin Burnes level.
Again, like Woodruff, it’s that Montgomery is a Super 2 and Burnes is not. Compare Montgomery with Burnes to his arb value last year.
This is Hader’s 4th time with Arb. His 2nd time through was 6.675M. Typical cutoff for Super 2s is about 1 week earlier than when Hader debut. But he fell on the rare extreme later amount of service time cutoff. 1 day would have made him a typical 3 times through.
Who told you Montgomery was a super 2? Stop listening to that person. He wasn’t close to being a super 2.
Montgomery wasn’t a Super Two. It’s that he’s in his final arbitration year and Burnes is in his penultimate year. The comparison would be Montgomery last season, $6 M, to Burnes this season, $10 M.
How could Montgomery not be a Super 2 based on his service time? He would clearly be in the top 22% with .153 and .146 next to his years. He would have qualified.
2020 year 1-21 2-22-3 23-4
There is an article on this site from a month ago that says “Montgomery first qualified for arbitration for the 2021 season.”
However, it does appear that he was a Super Two. But that was coming off two missed seasons (31.1 IP combined for those years), so he didn’t even crack $1 M that year. Salary wise, can’t really consider that an arbitration year.
@Clip, the arbitration process rewards players who win league awards, and he has a Cy Young, the highest honor a pitcher can receive; and it values All-Star appearances, and he has three straight. It rewards players who lead the league in traditional “black ink” categories, and he led the league in K’s last year as well as starts. It really is surprising he didn’t win his hearing.
RobM: I completely agree and those are fantastic points. It seems to me time was rewarded as much, or more, than performance. Very strange indeed.
The club clearly did a good job of smearing/slandering his contributions.
…and that smearing seems to have pissed off Burnes more than most players. Seems like a bad decision on the part of the Brewers. It’s one thing if their case was simply based on previous arbitration awards. If they truly talked down his contributions, then they deserve the blow-back their getting from him.
The amusing thing is seeing Brewers fans side with ownership against Burnes for being upset.
I’m not surprised the Brewers tried to lowball him. I am surprised they won this. He’s been a top pitcher. The result seems low to me.
How is he not a free agent after 2024? Debut in 2018 and played in every season since.
The Human Toilet
He spent most of the 2019 season in the minors.
I’m pretty sure he is a free agent AFTER 2024. This was his second trip through arbitration. He’ll get two more. Baseball Reference indicates free agency in 2025, but that means he’s a free agent after the 2024 season, unless I’m missing something here.
The article says “through 2024”
He is a FA after 2024 season. You can always find how long a player has left with a team on baseball reference. Go to team page and then contracts tab.
Can someone speak to how the arbitration process generally works? Does a player’s agent attempt to demonstrate numbers / stats that justify a salary while someone representing the team shows other numbers / data? How does it exactly go down?
That’s a good topic to suggest for the upcoming MLBTR podcast. You should submit that topic…
According to FanGraphs, Burnes was worth $19.4 mil in a short 2020 season, $59.7 mil in 2021, and $36.5 in 2022. To think that he’s not worth the little bit extra and him to lose this arbitration is a pure outrage. Arbitration is a completely silly process that significantly caps the earning power of a lot of individual. Yes, it helps others a tad, but owners get a stupid boost from this stupid crap
Sure. Can the Angels get back the surplus $200M or so that they paid Pujols? I wish players earned what they are actually worth.
MLBPA has negotiated certain rights. In exchange for things like guaranteed salaries they give up things like pre-FA earnings and team control.
Simply put, every single good player will be significantly underpaid relative to what they would earn in FA. Just like nearly every single blockbuster FA signing will carry significant negative value over the life of the contract. That’s the structure that teams and players have agreed to.
The Human Toilet
I need to hire the Brewers staff damn!
Aloha folks, as a Cubs fan who really respects Burnes since his days at St Mary’s of Moraga, I can’t believe the Brewers wouldn’t pay him this amount. One of the best overall starters the past 5yrs. Not good, I think he’s outta there by trade or via FA. Wish him well. Mahalo
Of course he’s outta there. If he maintains his pace for the next two years he’s on an HOF track will be one of highest paid pitchers of all time.
Meanwhile the Brewers are salary dumping Wong and Renfroe and making no notable additions. If it weren’t for the William Contreras heist they would have lost the offseason. We’ll see what happens once the season starts but the Brewers are a hair’s breadth away from completely squandering the best pitching staff in franchise history.
They could have given him an extra $10 million just because and he is still out of there when he reaches free agency. I don’t understand this idea that teams paying the player an extra amount will make him more likely to sign with them. Not a chance.
@saluel I agree. Giving him an extra $700k or so now isn’t going to convince him to take $7 less in an extension, or once he hits FA, from the Brewers. Sure, he can use this “slight” as an excuse to demand a trade or walk after ’24 if he’s there that long, but giving the extra pocket change now won’t make a difference down the road.
Nor will it help the team (any team in most cases) to cave to a player’s arb figure, because then every player expects it. Like it or not, that’s bad business. That’s like my boss agreeing to give me a 30% raise, then believing none of my coworkers will want, demand or expect the same (or more).
Whole bunch of decent players win.
Absolute stud player loses.
yeah am little surprised maybe brewers presented a fantastic case which could really irk burnes to look to move to another team asap.
Wow. The Brewers just bit the hand that feeds them. My bet is that he won’t sign with them once he reaches free agency.
They would have been better served trying to buy out his remaining arbitration years and 1st few years after.
Well let’s be real he was probably never going too…I can’t believe he lost…but I don’t think this will effect the Brewers reasoning for trading him…if the Brewers are in it they will keep him if they are not they will trade him because they will either do it at the trade deadline or the offseason…they can’t afford him…the Brewers are smart enough to get something for him
The Brewers won’t sign him when he hits free agency because another team will offer him significantly more money.
“Significantly more money” now there’s an understatement. The dudes next contact will be roughly the amount of money taxpayers will have to cough up to renovate the stadium and keep the Nashville Brewers at bay.
deGrom Texas Ranger
Yay! Good for the Brewers! I did think this guy’s hold have gotten more, but I’ll take the win against inflation.
Again, man. What? Besides your comment not making sense, it’s supply and demand, not inflation driving players’ salaries.
deGrom Texas Ranger
*guy could have
I’m honestly flabbergasted that he lost. Bad look for the Brew Crew. Hope they start slow out of the gate so they entertain taking some of the prospect bats the Orioles have for him this season. Wonder of Bloom would make a strong play for him to Boston?
I mean isn’t Burnes considered the Brewers franchise player? So yes this is very confusing treatment of him.
EVERYONE should be appalled by this. Corbin Burnes has been among the best pitchers in the NL for a few years now. He should have been able to ask for 20 million and still won the arbitration hearing.
Thats not how arbitration works
Loosen up Sandy
At the latest, he will be traded by the end of the year. The club knows this and if they save $740,000 then that’s their deal. It all add$ up. If they are out of it at the deadline and he’s dealing, Brew can expect a nice haul.
Poster formerly unknown as . . .
¡Killer Klowns From Outer Space!
Not funny considering he’s making over 10M. Wow.
Poster formerly unknown as . . .
Maybe you ought to read this:
“Corbin Burnes Expresses Disappointment With Brewers Following Arbitration Hearing”
Just like with Milwaukees offense, Burnes can’t win no matter what numbers he puts up.
Said this elsewhere. Arbitration results affects all players and teams when future players go through arb. Had the Brewers just met Burnes at his ask, that means the next Burnes in MLB on 2nd year of 3 Arbs can seek as much and more since salaries always rise yearly. Should the Brewers really give in to the demands of Burnes when they will not be able to afford extending him? 29 other team GMs who will have a future working with Milwaukee on trades beyond 2024 are who you want to remain in good graces with. Also Burnes has 4.049 days service time. It’s lower than typical service time for this stage. 515.2 total innings pitched. The pay are from similar players in the past. If those players had 600, 650, 700+ innings to their stats and that is very realistic happening after 4 full service years without lost Pandemic games. Think this is where Burnes is knocked down.
Kruk's Left Nut
There’s only two reasons where this makes sense.
#1 The Brewers are cheap (a given).
#2 The lower the salary the more appealing he is to teams over or close to tax line and the higher the bounty they can place on a trade.
¡Killer Klowns From Outer Space!
How dare they be cheap! 10.01 instead of 10.75 million. Corbin better apply for Snaps.
“Raregokus”: That last line kills your argument as too partisan. Things become better when looking at both club/player reasonable big picture motivations.
Burnes: If he rides his track record to become an unrestricted FA after ’24 at age 30, he’ll be bid up by the large market teams to 35mil AAV for at least 6yrs OR a longer deal at less AAV for accounting purposes. Brewers can’t offer an extension close to enticing him to bypass that payday potential…..and still field a legitimate contending roster since all players understandably “want theirs”. They are on the edge now of being a true contender as it is while he’s making much less. Yelich dropoff once he extended for big $ isn’t helping either.
Brewers: If Burnes is open to a feasible extension that guarantees him a ton now (but not unrestricted FA level), the deal will be torn to shreds where this arb ruling has little importance.
If he’s not, that is understandable and giving him more money this year/next makes no sense. They can use it toward other players and trade him at a lower salary price point if the club doesn’t appear good enough.
What a loser! Only 10 million dollars! How will he put food on the table?
“You kind of find out your true value,” the right-hander said. “You think you work hard for seven years in the organization, and five years with the big-league team, and you get in there and basically they value you much different than what you thought you’d contributed to the organization.
“They won it. But when it came down to winning or losing the hearing, it was more than that for me.”
Burnes felt like he was put “in the forefront” of the reason why the Brewers didn’t make the postseason in 2022.
“That’s something that probably doesn’t need to be said,” explained Burnes, who led the National League with 243 strikeouts in compiling a 12-8 record with a 2.94 ERA. “We can go about a hearing without having to do that.”
Wtf are the brewers doing?