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Corbin Burnes

Brewers Reportedly Planning To Hold Onto Adames, Burnes, Woodruff Into 2023 Season

By Anthony Franco | December 2, 2022 at 11:27pm CDT

The Brewers have told interested teams they’re unwilling to trade co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff or shortstop Willy Adames, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Milwaukee general manager Matt Arnold declined comment on any specific individuals but confirmed generally the team plans to “build around” their group of core players “to do the best we can here in 2023” (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

Burnes, Woodruff and Adames would certainly qualify as core players on the Milwaukee roster. All three are entering their penultimate season of arbitration eligibility, which raised loose speculation that a Brewers team with a mid-tier payroll could look to move them at the peak of their trade value. However, Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported at the outset of the offseason Milwaukee planned to build around their core group. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic similarly suggested last night the Brew Crew was unlikely to deal any of that trio before the start of the season.

The early stages of Milwaukee’s offseason haven’t exactly followed that script. The Brewers parted ways with relievers Brent Suter and Brad Boxberger in the first few weeks. They exercised a $10MM option on Kolten Wong and tendered an arbitration contract with a projected $11.2MM salary to Hunter Renfroe, but both players immediately found themselves in trade rumors. They’re now division rivals in the AL West. Milwaukee sent Renfroe to the Angels for a trio of pre-arbitration pitchers two weeks ago. This afternoon, they dealt Wong to the Mariners in a roughly cash-neutral swap that brought in corner outfielder/designated hitter Jesse Winker (who’s making $8.25MM next season) and arbitration-eligible infielder Abraham Toro.

Subtracting Renfroe and Wong while adding Winker, Toro and pitchers Elvis Peguero and Janson Junk (acquired from Anaheim) probably represents an early downgrade for the Milwaukee roster. Yet parting ways with productive but not elite regulars like Renfroe and Wong is certainly not as impactful as dealing away any of Burnes, Woodruff or Adames would be. That’s particularly true in the case of the Wong swap, which wasn’t intended to slash payroll so much as dealing from an area of roster strength to add a potential offensive upgrade. Milwaukee has highly-regarded prospect Brice Turang as an option to step in at second base, while Toro joins Luis Urías and Mike Brosseau as internal candidates to play second or third.

The Brewers took a similar tack at last summer’s trade deadline. The Josh Hader trade was much maligned — both at the time and in retrospect — as Milwaukee subtracted one of the sport’s top relievers in the midst of a playoff race. Hader’s lofty arbitration salary and window of control dwindling to a season and a half certainly played a part in the front office’s calculus, but the deal wasn’t designed to wave the white flag on the 2022 season. The Brewers brought back a highly-regarded late-inning pitcher of their own in Taylor Rogers and added prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser to the organization. Rogers underperformed during his few months with the Brew Crew, and now-former president of baseball operations David Stearns acknowledged in retrospect he didn’t completely foresee how poorly received the loss of Hader would be in the clubhouse. Yet even if that trade didn’t work as intended, it’s clear it wasn’t designed to kick off any kind of rebuild.

Adames is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.2MM arbitration salary. Burnes and Woodruff are each forecasted at or just above $11MM. Those are notable figures but still significant bargains relative to those players’ productions. It’d make them the subject of strong interest on the trade market but also key contributors to a Brewers team looking to improve upon last year’s 86-win season. None of those salaries are so exorbitant Milwaukee would feel any urgent financial pressure to clear them from the books.

The Brewers opened the 2022 season with a payroll just under $132MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster Resource presently projects their 2023 commitments — including arbitration estimates — around $116MM. Even if owner Mark Attanasio isn’t keen on a significant payroll spike, Arnold and his staff should have plenty of room to retain each of Adames, Woodruff and Burnes while making a few targeted upgrades elsewhere on the roster. That’s before considering the possibility of trades subtracting a few more ancillary players. Rowdy Tellez, Adrian Houser and Keston Hiura are all speculative trade candidates this offseason, and it’s not completely out of the question the Brewers field offers on Winker.

Adding another bat in the corner outfield/DH mix could be in order. Winker’s probably best suited for bat-only work if he’s on the roster, which would leave right field to Tyrone Taylor as things currently stand. Milwaukee has a few prospects who could factor into center field, with Garrett Mitchell leading the group after debuting late in 2022, but could look for a veteran complement to add some depth. The Brewers also saw catcher Omar Narváez hit free agency, meaning they could explore ways to upgrade on Víctor Caratini. First base, presently manned by Tellez, is another area where the club may try to inject life into an offense that was only a bit above league average this past season.

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Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand Brandon Woodruff Corbin Burnes Willy Adames

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Dodgers, Giants Interested In Kolten Wong

By Anthony Franco | December 1, 2022 at 10:35pm CDT

The Dodgers and Giants are among the teams looking into the possibility of a trade for Brewers second baseman Kolten Wong, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The Mariners are also known to have checked in as part of their search for a left-handed hitting second baseman.

Wong is one of the winter’s likelier trade candidates. Milwaukee has a loaded arbitration class that has led them to explore ways to alleviate a payroll crunch. The Brewers waived reliever Brent Suter, whom they apparently weren’t looking to tender a contract with a projected $3.1MM salary. Milwaukee tendered a contract to corner outfielder Hunter Renfroe, but they subsequently dealt him to the Angels for a trio of pitchers and knocked a projected $11.2MM salary off the books.

It appears they’re planning a similar strategy with Wong. The Brewers opened the offseason with a decision on the 32-year-old infielder, as his free agent deal contained a $10MM club option or a $2MM buyout. Milwaukee exercised the option, but Rosenthal writes the Brewers are expected to deal Wong at some point this offseason.

Wong is coming off an atypical season. A two-time Gold Glove winner, he’s been one of the sport’s top defensive second basemen throughout his career. His track record at the plate has been more mixed, but he paired arguably his best offensive season and his worst showing with the glove in 2022. Wong hit 15 home runs and put up a .251/.339/.430 line through 497 plate appearances, numbers that checked in 16 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. Statcast pegged him as the game’s worst defensive second baseman, though, estimating he was seven runs below average. Wong committed 17 errors, tying a career high, and he had the worst speed metrics of his career. At his age, Wong’s best days as a defender could be behind him, although it’s worth noting he also didn’t seem fully healthy. He lost a couple weeks in June to a right calf strain and acknowledged after the season he played through leg injuries (via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).

The Brewers aren’t going to move Wong solely for the purpose of salary relief. Had they been completely set on cutting costs, they could’ve declined his option (or placed him on waivers in hopes another team would claim him and get them off the hook for the buyout). Milwaukee didn’t do that, but as with Renfroe, they don’t seem motivated to retain Wong at his current salary. Rather, they’ve apparently made the determination he has trade value at that $10MM price point and are looking to capitalize on that while creating additional payroll flexibility.

If they do move Wong, the Brewers could hand second base over to former first-round pick Brice Turang. Wong himself suggested after the season that Turang’s presence could inspire Milwaukee to let him go, as the young hitter is coming off a strong season for Triple-A Nashville. Turang, a left-handed hitter, is coming off a .286/.360/.412 showing in 131 games for the Sounds. Prospect evaluators regard him highly as a defender, and he’s now on the 40-man roster after being added to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

The Dodgers and Giants each have plenty of spending capacity. Both clubs are sure to take swings at top-of-the-market free agents, but Wong represents a solid fallback as each seeks to build out their infield. Los Angeles has seen Trea Turner hit free agency, while they declined a team option on Justin Turner. They’re possible suitors for any of this winter’s top four free agent shortstops — Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa — but Rosenthal suggests they could pursue a top free agent and a Wong trade.

The thinking in that scenario would be to rely on Wong and an open market acquisition up the middle while turning third base over to Gavin Lux. Lux has only played six MLB innings at third base, spending the bulk of his time in the middle infield. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have loved his work at second base but been mixed on his shortstop defense. Statcast ranked Lux 155th out of 163 qualified infielders in arm strength this year, meaning he’d probably be stretched at the hot corner. Los Angeles also has a top third base prospect, Miguel Vargas, ready for a big league look after a .304/.404/.511 showing in Triple-A.

San Francisco already has a left-handed hitting second base option in Tommy La Stella. He’s under contract for $11.5M in the final season of a three-year free agent deal that hasn’t worked as hoped. La Stella owns a .245/.297/.380 line as a Giant, seemingly putting his path to everyday reps in jeopardy. The Giants could also explore the top of the shortstop market, perhaps with an eye towards kicking any acquisition over to second base in deference to Brandon Crawford. They’ve been prominently mentioned as the Yankees’ top rival on Aaron Judge, though, and landing a big-ticket shortstop would probably be off the radar if their pursuit of Judge proves fruitful.

While the Brewers have been open to talks on Renfroe and Wong, there’s no indication they’re planning a broad teardown of the roster. Listening to offers on quality role players with escalating price tags is par for the course for a Milwaukee franchise that consistently works to thread the needle of remaining competitive with mid-tier payrolls. Dealing someone like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff or Willy Adames would be a far more impactful subtraction from the MLB roster, and it doesn’t appear GM Matt Arnold and his front office are eager to make a move of that kind.

Rosenthal unsurprisingly writes the Brewers are finding ample interest on Burnes, Woodruff and Adames but suggests they may be likelier to hold onto those players into the season and reevaluate their place in the standings closer to the trade deadline. All three players have two seasons of arbitration control remaining, and while it seems likely at least one member of that group will eventually be dealt, there’s no pressing concern for the Brewers to do so this offseason.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers San Francisco Giants Brandon Woodruff Brice Turang Corbin Burnes Gavin Lux Kolten Wong Willy Adames

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Sandy Alcantara Wins National League Cy Young Award

By Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco | November 16, 2022 at 5:49pm CDT

Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara has won the National League Cy Young award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. It was a unanimous victory, with Alcantara receiving all 30 first place votes. He was followed in the voting by Max Fried of the Braves and Julio Urías of the Dodgers.

Alcantara has been the presumptive favorite for quite some time, and the unanimous voting serves as a particular testament to the caliber of season he put together. The right-hander easily lapped the field in innings, soaking up 228 2/3 frames that cleared second-place finisher Aaron Nola by 23 2/3. Alcantara and Nola were the only Senior Circuit pitchers to throw multiple complete games; Nola went the distance twice, while Alcantara did so six times. He also faced a league-leading 886 batters, with Nola’s 807 batters faced an extremely distant second.

That kind of throwback, workhorse mentality was part of what set Alcantara apart from the rest of the league, but he continued to perform brilliantly on a rate basis. Among NL starters with 100+ innings, he ranked fourth in ERA (2.28) and sixth in ground-ball percentage (53.4%). His 23.4% strikeout percentage was more good than elite, but he rarely issued free passes and kept the ball on the ground while consistently going deep into games.

Along the way, the 27-year-old earned the second All-Star nod of his career. Alcantara had posted an ERA between 3.00 and 4.00 in each of his first four seasons with the Fish to emerge as a top-of-the-rotation caliber arm. Miami inked him to a $56MM extension last offseason, a deal that extended their window of control through 2027. That seemed a strong move for general manager Kim Ng and her staff at the time, and it now stands as an absolute bargain with Alcantara cementing himself upon the game’s top handful of pitchers.

It’s the first Cy Young nod for the native of the Dominican Republic, who’d never previously appeared on an awards ballot. Fried and Urías each picked up some support for the second time. The Atlanta southpaw finished fifth in Cy Young balloting in 2020, while the L.A. hurler placed seventh last year. Both earned a top-three placement for the first time this year, with sub-2.50 ERA showings. Fried twirled 185 1/3 innings of 2.48 ball, while Urías led qualified starters with a 2.16 ERA.

Fried picked up 10 second-place votes, and Urías was the runner-up on seven ballots. Nola, Zac Gallen, Carlos Rodón, Corbin Burnes and Edwin Díaz were the other players to receive at least one second-place vote. Nola and Gallen placed fourth and fifth, respectively. Rodón, Burnes, Díaz, Yu Darvish, Kyle Wright, Logan Webb and Ryan Helsley were the other players to appear on a ballot.

Full voting breakdown available here.

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Atlanta Braves Los Angeles Dodgers Miami Marlins Newsstand Aaron Nola Carlos Rodon Corbin Burnes Edwin Diaz Julio Urias Kyle Wright Logan Webb Max Fried Ryan Helsley Sandy Alcantara Yu Darvish

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NL Central Notes: Brewers Pitching, Cardinals, Reynolds

By Simon Hampton | November 10, 2022 at 9:54pm CDT

Heading into the off-season, the Brewers have a number of quality players and like any smaller market team, their dwindling years of control make them speculative trade candidates. Star pitchers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are both entering their final two seasons of control, but according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Brewers are more likely to add to their roster around those two than look to deal them.

Burnes followed up last year’s NL Cy Young winning campaign with another brilliant season, throwing 202 innings of 2.94 ERA ball. He struck out 243 batters (1st in NL) and while he’s not a finalist for the Cy Young award in 2022, he’ll certainly receive some down-ballot votes. Woodruff finished fifth in Cy Young voting last year, and pitched to a 3.05 ERA across 153 1/3 innings in 2022. Woodruff is due $11MM in arbitration, while Burns slightly tops that with $11.4MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’ projections. A trade of either could give the Brewers farm system – which ranked 13th on Baseball America’s mid-season rankings – a massive boost.

After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and finishing seven games back of the Cardinals, it might’ve been an opportune time to retool a little and replenish their farm system, but instead it appears they’ll look to bounce back by adding to their current core in 2023. According to RosterResource, the Brewers payroll currently projects at around $130MM, $7MM shy of their final mark in 2022. While it’s unclear if the Brewers plan to increase payroll, as things stand that doesn’t leave a ton of wiggle room to improve and try and catch the Cardinals, though they could opt to non-tender some of their arbitration-eligible players to free up some payroll space.

Here’s some more from around the National League Central:

  • The Cardinals have a clear need at catcher following the retirement of Yadier Molina, and it seems they could fill that hole with the top free agent catcher Willson Contreras. According to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, the Cards are one team (alongside the Tigers and Astros) to have expressed interest in Contreras. The slugging catcher hit 22 home runs and slashed .243/.349/.466 in 113 games this year with the Cubs. They did issue him with a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals would have to forfeit a draft pick in the event they did sign him. Currently Andrew Knizner is the top catcher on the Cardinals depth chart, but he profiles as more of a backup so it’s not surprising to see the team linked with free agent catchers.
  • Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds’ elite production and years of control – along with Pittsburgh’s ongoing rebuild – have made him one of the most coveted trade pieces in recent years, but according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Bucs are unlikely to trade him this off-season. Reynolds can be a free agent after the 2025 season, and despite their second-straight 100-loss year, Morosi says the Pirates believe they can be competitive within that window. Reynolds hit .262/.345/.461 with 27 home runs in 2022, a solid year but down on his lofty standards. A year ago, Reynolds slashed .302/.390/.522 and finished eleventh in NL MVP voting. On the whole, Reynolds is a quality hitter that almost any major league team would find room for. Defensively, Reynolds has split time between left and center fields, but grades out better in left with seven Defensive Runs Saved there in his career, against -16 in center. He’s put up 13.6 bWAR across four seasons (including the pandemic-shortened 2020 year) and has given Pittsburgh a star to cheer for through some lean years. Ultimately, there’s reasonable cases to be made for and against trading Reynolds, and while Morosi’s tweet doesn’t rule out a trade by any stretch, given Pittsburgh’s turned down trade interest in recent years there’s a good chance they keep him and look to build around him again in 2023.
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Milwaukee Brewers Notes Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Brandon Woodruff Bryan Reynolds Corbin Burnes Willson Contreras

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Burnes: No Extension Talks Yet With Brewers

By Darragh McDonald | September 13, 2022 at 2:01pm CDT

Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes is getting near the end of a third straight excellent campaign, establishing himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Once this season is done, he will have just two years of team control remaining, making him a fairly logical extension candidate. However, Burnes tells Adam McCalvy of MLB.com that no such talks have taken place yet.

“You would think,” Burnes said when asked if this offseason would be a good time to get negotiations started. “You would think maybe there would have been some initial talks last offseason, but nothing.”

Burnes struggled a bit to get acclimated to the majors, especially in 2019. That year, he allowed an incredible 17 home runs in just 49 innings, producing a shocking 38.6% HR/FB rate and 8.82 ERA. However, he righted the ship immaculately in 2020, throwing 59 2/3 innings in the shortened season with a 2.11 ERA, 36.7% strikeout rate and 46.4% ground ball rate. His 10% walk rate was a bit high, but it was still an excellent breakout.

Though some might have written this off as a small sample flash-in-the-pan, Burnes quickly erased those concerns in 2021. He threw 167 innings that year with a 2.43 ERA, 35.6% strikeout rate, 48.8% ground ball rate and cut his walk rate effectively in half to 5.2%. He was awarded the National League Cy Young for that elite season and has been pitching at almost the same level again in 2022.

Though the Brewers are surely delighted to have seen Burnes blossom to this degree, it does mean that he will become expensive. He reached arbitration for the first time last offseason and is earning $6.5MM here in 2022. Since he’s having another excellent season, he’ll be due another hefty raise for 2023 and likely for 2024 as well. For a pitcher of Burnes’ caliber, it will still be incredible value for money, though it does raise the possibility of the team considering a trade. After all, the Brewers did just send out another excellent pitcher who was getting expensive: Josh Hader.

Hader isn’t an exact apples-to-apples comparison to Burnes, as he’s a reliever and also qualified for Super Two status, meaning he would get four trips through arbitration instead of three. There are similarities as well, though. By the time of his trade this year, Hader was making $11MM and had a year and a half of team control remaining. Burnes will likely be making a similar salary next year and will have the same amount of control when the deadline is rolling around. The parallels aren’t lost on Burnes.

“For anyone who isn’t on a long-term deal, once you get into your later years of arbitration, anything can happen,” Burnes said. “We saw it with Hader. We might see it this offseason. I don’t know what route the front office is going to take.” Burnes then added, “Who knows what’s going to happen this offseason. Who knows what’s going to happen at the next Trade Deadline. At this point, there’s a couple of guys remaining from our 2018 and ‘19 postseason teams, and it’s like, this could be maybe the last year. Maybe next year is the last year. Maybe we get two more years. We don’t really know. It’s hard to look at it like that but you don’t know what’s going to happen.”

With most other teams, it would be a no-brainer to keep an ace like Burnes through arbitration and perhaps even extend him. The Brewers have never really been huge spenders, however, and financial concerns will creep into anything they do. They ran an Opening Day payroll of $132MM this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That placed them 19th among the 30 teams in the league in that department, spending less than half of teams like the Dodgers and Mets, though it still represented a franchise high.

Lorenzo Cain’s contract will be off the books following this year, which will open up room for another significant deal beside Christian Yelich on the ledger. However, Burnes isn’t the only player that Milwaukee will have to think about. Brandon Woodruff, Willy Adames, Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer are in the same position as Burnes, going through arbitration with free agency approaching after the 2024 season. If the Brewers have some payroll space to work with, they might want to use it on some of that group instead of Burnes, as they would all likely be slightly behind him on the earnings scale.

An extension for a pitcher of Burnes’ caliber wouldn’t be cheap, after all. Since February of 2014, there have only been six extensions given to starting pitchers between four and five years of service time, which is where Burnes will be this winter. Of those six, one of them was for veteran journeyman Wade LeBlanc, who is not a good comparison for Burnes. Neither is Mike Clevinger, who signed a two-year deal covering his final arbitration seasons while he was about to undergo Tommy John surgery. The Rockies recently gave extensions to Kyle Freeland and German Marquez, who each got five years and over $50MM, despite being nowhere near Burnes’ level. Kyle Hendricks got $55.5MM over four years back in 2019 after years of solid performance, though not quite at the elite tier Burnes has reached so far.

Perhaps the best comparison is Jacob deGrom, who signed a four-year, $120.5MM extension in March of 2019. He had already agreed to a $17MM salary for 2019, with this new extension covering four years beyond that. deGrom had just finished a phenomenal 2018 season wherein he threw 217 innings with a 1.70 ERA, 32.2% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 46.4% ground ball rate. That season is a notch above what Burnes has done so far, though that was a huge jump over deGrom’s previous two seasons, with the Mets’ righty registering a 3.53 ERA in 2017 and a 3.04 in 2016. deGrom was also going into his age-31 season, reflecting his late-bloomer trajectory. Burnes is turning 28 next month, meaning he could quite reasonably expect a longer commitment than what deGrom got.

Only once have the Brewers gone into nine-figure territory on a contract, which was the nine-year, $188.5MM extension given to Yelich in March of 2020. That deal is still on the books for a good while, paying Yelich $26MM annually from now until the end of the 2028 season. Extending Burnes would require adding another contract with an average annual value in that vicinity, likely even higher. If the club continues running out payrolls similar to this year’s $132MM Opening Day figure, extending Burnes would mean close to half their budget being used up on just two players.

Thanks largely to an excellent pitching staff, the Brewers have been consistently competitive in recent years, despite the modest spending. They’ve qualified for the postseason in each of the previous four seasons, including a pair of division titles. Despite a rough stretch here in late 2022, they’re still in the mix to make the playoffs again, sitting two games behind the Padres for the final Wild Card spot. However, with many of their core players continuing to earn higher salaries, they might have to make some tough decisions about who they want to try to keep and who’s a candidate to follow Hader out of town.

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Milwaukee Brewers Corbin Burnes

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List Of All-Star Roster Replacements

By Mark Polishuk | July 17, 2022 at 7:27pm CDT

7:25PM: Freddie Freeman is also joining the NL roster, as the league announced that the Dodgers first baseman is replacing Starling Marte.

4:04PM: The league announced that the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas has now been added to the NL roster, taking the spot of Brewers righty Corbin Burnes.

July 17, 1:15PM: The Mariners have announced that Ty France will be joining the festivities as well. MLB later announced the addition as well, noting that he is replacing Mike Trout. With Trout not taking part, Byron Buxton will move into the starting center fielder role for the American League.

10:05AM: MLB has announced three more additions, with one of them being the previously reported addition of Williams. The other two are closers: Liam Hendriks of the White Sox and Jordan Romano of the Blue Jays. Those three will replace Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Max Fried.

July 16, 11:01PM: Brewers reliever Devin Williams has also been named to the NL roster, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).

7:11:PM: Four replacements were announced to the All-Star rosters, taking the spots of four other players who won’t be part of the Midsummer Classic.  Dodgers left-hander Tyler Anderson, Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth, and Braves third baseman Austin Riley will be joining the National League’s team, while Blue Jays second baseman Santiago Espinal has been named to the American League’s roster.

Espinal is replacing Jose Altuve, who was hit in the knee by a pitch on Thursday.  Altuve sat out Friday’s action and is back in the Astros lineup tonight as the DH, but even though he is well enough to play, Altuve and the Astros will use the All-Star break to get the second baseman fully back to 100 percent.  Altuve had been voted in as the AL’s starter at second baseman, but now the Guardians’ Andres Gimenez take over as the starter for Tuesday’s game.

Jazz Chisholm was voted as the NL’s starting second baseman, but the Marlins standout will also be missing the game due to his lower back injury.  Chisholm has been on the 10-day injured list since June 28, but he has been working out at the Marlins’ spring camp, and taking part in baseball activities.  There isn’t a set timeline for Chisholm’s return, but the team is hopeful Chisholm can be activated for the start of the second half.  With Chisholm out, Jeff McNeil becomes the NL’s new starter at the keystone, while Cronenworth will take over the backup infield role.

Giants lefty Carlos Rodon is also battling injury, opening the door for Anderson to receive the first All-Star nod of his seven-year career.  Rodon has both a blister and a split nail on the middle finger of his throwing hand, and told  Henry Schulman and other reporters that he is skipping the ASG in order to give the injury time to properly heal.  There isn’t yet any indication that Rodon might require a visit to the injured list, and since Rodon last pitched on Thursday, he’ll receive at least a full week off between starts.

Riley was perhaps the most prominent omission from the original All-Star roster, given how the Braves slugger has posted some huge numbers over the first half.  However, as it often the case with “snubs,” the situation sorted itself out once other players started to drop out.  Riley will be taking the place of Nolan Arenado, as the Cardinals third baseman will use the break to rest a lingering back problem.

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2022 All-Star Game Austin Riley Carlos Rodon Corbin Burnes Devin Williams Freddie Freeman Jake Cronenworth Jazz Chisholm Jordan Romano Jose Altuve Liam Hendriks Miles Mikolas Nolan Arenado Santiago Espinal Starling Marte Ty France Tyler Anderson

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Ballparking A Corbin Burnes Extension

By James Hicks | December 25, 2021 at 9:52am CDT

Coming off a 2021 season that saw them run away with the NL Central behind a stable of controllable arms that put up high-end numbers for salaries that fell well below market value, the Brewers’ pitching staff is among the great envies of Major League Baseball. While many of their salaries will rise through arbitration in 2022 – Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader are each slated for hefty raises – no decision facing Brewers GM Matt Arnold will have a greater bearing on the club’s future than his approach to reigning NL Cy Young Award Winner Corbin Burnes.

After pitching last season for a relatively piddly $608K, MLBTR’s Matt Swartz has Burnes slated for an even $4MM salary in 2022, his first year of arbitration eligibility, should he and the Brewers choose to go that route. While it clearly won’t come cheap, Arnold and the Brewers will at least want to kick the tires on a possible extension with their ace. With dollars flying around at an unprecedented rate before the lockout, though, what such an extension might look like remains an open question. Should the Brewers follow the arbitration path for the duration of Burnes’ eligibility, he’d become a free agent following his age-29 season in 2024.

While pinpointing a length or dollar-figure would be pure guesswork, we can safely say that a Burnes extension won’t come cheap. Burnes’ stellar 2021 didn’t come out of nowhere, exactly, but few would have predicted the dominance he displayed, particularly given that he had cracked top-prospect lists only shortly before his 2018 debut and entered 2021 with just 13 lifetime big-league starts. He’d also fallen on his face in a rotation stint to open the 2019 season, allowing 11 homers across three outings, and performed only marginally better out of the bullpen (7.76 ERA in 28 relief appearances, 10.70 in four starts).

Burnes’ huge step forward in 2020 came largely as the result of a plummeting home run rate (from 7.2% in 2019 to a miniscule 0.8% in 2020). In 2021, he nearly maintained the same low home run rate (1.1%) while cutting his walk rate almost in half to the lowest mark in the NL (from 10% in 2020 to 5.2% in 2021), while his home-run rate, K-rate (35.6%), K/BB ratio (6.88), and FIP (1.63) all led the majors among qualified starters. He also won the big-league ERA title with a 2.43 mark in 167 innings.

Given the relative scarcity of pitchers of Burnes’ caliber at this point in their careers, comparisons are scant. The White Sox gave Chris Sale $32MM over five years ahead of the 2013 season, but he was still a year from arbitration and only had one year as a starter—and no Cy Youngs—under his belt at the time. The seven years and $175MM the Nationals gave Stephen Strasburg in May 2016—which also included an opt-out clause he wound up using—came only a few months ahead of Strasburg reaching free agency (albeit with a Tommy John surgery on file). Similarly, Jacob deGrom’s five-year, $137.5MM whopper came just ahead of his final arb-year. (On one hand, deGrom was 31 in 2019, significantly older than Burnes, but is also in a class of his own.)

Perhaps a better comp is Aaron Nola’s four year, $45MM pact (also with a club option) with the Phillies in 2019, which came at the same point in his arbitration cycle, though the comparison is far from perfect. While Nola was at the time a year younger than Burnes is now and had a longer track record as an effective big-league starter, he’d never reached (and hasn’t since) quite the heights Burnes has over the last two seasons. The closest comparison, then, is likely the $50MM over five years the Rays gave to Blake Snell following his dominant 2018 Cy Young season. That backloaded deal, which came a year ahead of Snell’s arbitration eligibility, followed a breakout campaign on the heels of strong but not spectacular performances in the two years prior.

The Brewers will likely be more than willing to give Burnes (and his dominant cutter) quite a bit more in the ways of both years and dollars than the Phillies gave Nola or the Rays gave Snell, perhaps inching him a bit closer to Strasburg and deGrom. They should also have money to spend; the eight-figure salaries of Avisail Garcia (signed with the Marlins) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (traded to the Red Sox) have both come off their books, while Lorenzo Cain’s will do the same after he plays out his $18MM guarantee in 2022. They’ll remain on the hook for $26MM/year to Christian Yelich through 2028, but they otherwise have no salary commitments in 2023 beyond $3.735MM to starter Freddy Peralta and a $2MM buyout to second baseman Kolten Wong.

They will, of course, also want to augment a lineup that lagged well behind the rotation in overall production, but figuring out the plan with their rotation anchor is certain to be their first priority. Something in the neighborhood of a five- or six-year guarantee that pushes the nine-figure mark – perhaps also including performance escalators and/or a high-dollar club option or two – might be enough to satisfy club and player, guaranteeing the Brewers cost certainty and control of their franchise player beyond his arbitration years and Burnes significant financial security.

With the small-market Brewers in the middle of a contention window and Burnes’ rotation-mates Woodruff and Peralta under club control through 2024 and 2026, respectively, Brewers fans can likely count on the same sort of high-end starting pitching that propelled the 2021 club for at least a few more years regardless of Burnes’ contract status. Lefty Eric Lauer and late-bloomer Adrian Houser will likely return to round out the rotation in 2022, each in his first of arb-eligibility, granting the club an enviable expectation of consistency in the rotation. Graduating prospect Aaron Ashby, who pitched to a 4.55 ERA in 31 2/3 innings in 2021, may also push for a spot in rotation, though Craig Counsell may choose to keep him in the bullpen (or stash him in AAA) until his services as a starter are required.

While the small-market Brewers will likely have to dole out a bit more in the way of years and dollars than they’d like to keep their ace around in the long term, it may just be a risk they have to take. If Burnes can stay healthy and duplicate his recent dominance into his early 30s, the club would at minimum have the sort of top-of-the-rotation workhorse that perennial playoff teams rely on to reach the tournament year after year. And if Burnes preserves anything like his form over the last two seasons over the long haul, it would be a risk they’re glad they took.

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Robbie Ray, Corbin Burnes Win Cy Young Awards

By Anthony Franco | November 17, 2021 at 7:15pm CDT

The Baseball Writers Association of America revealed the results of Cy Young award balloting this evening. Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays (now a free agent) and Corbin Burnes of the Brewers were named the American League and National League winners, respectively.

Ray claimed the AL award in resounding fashion, an achievement made all the more remarkable by his 2020 struggles. The southpaw dealt with significant control problems during the shortened campaign, leading the D-Backs to trade him to Toronto for essentially no return. After the end of the year, the Jays jumped the market to bring Ray back, buying low on the talented hurler with a one-year, $8MM pact.

That move will go down as one of the best of general manager Ross Atkins’ tenure in Toronto. Not only did Ray get back to heights that saw him make an All-Star team and garner some Cy Young support in 2017, he posted the best showing of his eight-year career. Ray worked 193 1/3 innings of 2.84 ERA ball, striking out an elite 32.1% of batters faced. That swing-and-miss stuff was nothing new, but the 29-year-old also cut his walk rate by almost two thirds. Just one year after walking 17.9% of opponents, Ray doled out free passes at just a 6.9% clip in 2021.

64 American League pitchers tallied 100+ innings this past season. Among that group, Ray ranked 3rd in ERA, strikeout percentage, strikeout/walk rate differential (25.2 percentage points) and SIERA (3.22). He led all AL hurlers in both innings pitched and swinging strike rate (15.5%). That stellar showing earns Ray his first Cy Young award and positions him as one of the top pitchers on this offseason’s free agent market.

As mentioned, the voting tilted quite strongly in Ray’s favor. He appeared on all 30 ballots, receiving 29 first-place votes and one second-place tally. The Yankees’ Gerrit Cole (who received the lone first-place nod that didn’t go to Ray) was the clear second-place finisher, with Lance Lynn of the White Sox coming in third. Nathan Eovaldi, Carlos Rodón, Frankie Montas, Lance McCullers Jr., Liam Hendriks, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Lucas Giolito and Raisel Iglesias also received down ballot support.

Voting in the National League was far more contentious, with very little separation between Burnes and the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler at the top. Both players received twelve first-place votes and appeared on all 30 ballots in some capacity, but Burnes’ 14-9 edge in second-place finishes wound up making the difference. The other six first-place votes went to eventual third-place finisher Max Scherzer, who split the season between the Nationals and Dodgers.

To some extent, the battle between Burnes and Wheeler came down to weighing volume versus rate effectiveness. Wheeler tossed an MLB-best 213 1/3 innings, while Burnes worked 167 frames. That’s a rather significant nod in Wheeler’s favor, but Burnes’ per-inning accomplishments were incredible. The Milwaukee righty ranked second among the 62 NL hurlers with 100+ innings in ERA (2.43) while pacing the league in SIERA (2.61), strikeout percentage (35.6%), strikeout/walk rate differential (30.4 percentage points) and swinging strike rate (16.6%).

That’s not to imply Wheeler was ineffective. The Phils’ righty was among the top ten in the league in most rate categories as well. But voters ultimately gave an ever so slight edge to Burnes’ utter domination of opponents, even if that came with a lighter workload than the one Wheeler shouldered.

Like Ray, Burnes takes home his first Cy Young award. He’d finished sixth in last year’s balloting and now looks like one of the game’s top handful of hurlers moving forward. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Brewers, who control Burnes via arbitration through the end of 2024, try to open extension talks with his representatives at CAA Sports over this offseason.

In addition to the three finalists, Walker Buehler, Brandon Woodruff, Kevin Gausman, Adam Wainwright, Julio Urías and Jacob deGrom picked up some down ballot support. Buehler was the only non-finalist to garner any second-place votes, with two runner-up nods.

See full balloting results.

Images courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

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NL Notes: Brewers, Tellez, Naquin, Smith

By Mark Polishuk | September 11, 2021 at 9:50pm CDT

Corbin Burnes and Josh Hader combined on Major League Baseball’s record-setting ninth official no-hitter of the season, as the Brewers recorded a 3-0 victory over the Indians.  Burnes struck out 14 Cleveland batters over eight dominant innings, though since Burnes amassed 115 pitches, Hader was brought in to finish things off with a perfect ninth inning.  It was the second no-hitter in Brewers franchise history, since Juan Nieves’ gem on April 15, 1987.

Baseball’s “Year Of The No-Hitter” hasn’t been kind to the Indians, who have now set a record by being no-hit three times in a single season.  Zach Plesac has been the Tribe’s starting pitcher for all three of those games, and Plesac matches Jim Perry as the only hurler in baseball history to be on the mound opposite three no-hitters in his career (let alone in a single season).

The latest from around the senior circuit…

  • It wasn’t a perfect night for the Brewers, as first baseman Rowdy Tellez left the game prior to the bottom of the second inning due to a knee injury.  Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that Tellez has been bothered by the nagging injury for some time, and he will undergo an MRI tomorrow to determine the extent of the problem.  Acquired in a trade with the Blue Jays in early July, Tellez hit .265/.325/.464 with seven home runs over his first 166 plate appearances in a Milwaukee uniform.  Tellez has become the Brew Crew’s top first base option, though if he has to miss time on the injured list, the team can turn to a combination of Daniel Vogelbach, Eduardo Escobar, and Jace Peterson at first base.
  • A sixth-inning collision between Reds teammates Tyler Naquin and Jose Barrero resulted in Naquin leaving the game with bruised ribs.  Naquin and Barrero were both in pursuit of a short fly ball from the Cardinals’ Dylan Carlson, but the ball eluded the duo in painful fashion, resulting in an RBI double for Carlson.  In positive news, Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic) that there weren’t any concerns that either Naquin or Barrero suffered a concussion.  The Reds don’t play on Monday, so it seems likely that Naquin will get two full days off to recuperate, and it remains to be seen if the injured list will ultimately be required.
  • Caleb Smith lost the appeal of his 10-game suspension, and began serving that suspension today.  The Diamondbacks southpaw was hit with the 10-game ban after umpires discovered a foreign substance on his glove during an August 18 game.  Smith strongly protested his ejection from the game and subsequent suspension, though his appeal didn’t result in a change of the league’s initial decision.  Smith has a 5.04 ERA/4.68 SIERA over 105 innings this season, moving between Arizona’s rotation and bullpen amidst a lot of control problems.
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Brewers Notes: Burnes, Yelich, Godley

By Connor Byrne | May 12, 2021 at 5:53pm CDT

A few updates on the Brewers…

  • Milwaukee will welcome back ace Corbin Burnes from the COVID-19 injured list on Thursday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com relays. Burnes confirmed Wednesday that he landed on the shelf April 26 as a result of a positive test, but he was asymptomatic and able to continue working out, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Prior to going on the IL, the 26-year-old flamethrower got off to a remarkable start with 29 1/3 innings of 1.53 ERA/1.25 SIERA, and he also piled up 49 strikeouts without issuing a single walk. Burnes is now three punchouts away from breaking Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen’s 4-year-old record of 51 strikeouts against no walks to open a season.
  • McCalvy also passes on the latest regarding left fielder Christian Yelich, who hit the 10-day IL for the second time last week because of ongoing back troubles. Yelich has returned to “doing baseball activities,” according to manager Craig Counsell, who didn’t offer a timeline for when he could rejoin their lineup. Yelich’s second IL placement came just one game after the team activated him from a three-week absence. Yelich has appeared in only 10 games and collected 41 plate appearances this year, but the former MVP has hit a rather productive .353/.463/.382 in that short span.
  • The Brewers designated righty Zack Godley for assignment on Monday, and he has since gone unclaimed on waivers, Steve Adams of MLBTR tweets. Godley has up to two days to accept an outright assignment or return to free agency. The Brewers signed the 30-year-old to a minor league contract in March, and they selected his contract April 27. Godley made a start the next day, but he managed only three innings of three earned-run ball before exiting with a right finger injury that required an IL stint.
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