The Athletics are acquiring JJ Bleday from the Marlins in a trade, according to the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Left-hander A.J. Puk is going the other way, per Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. The teams have now announced the deal.
Puk, 28 in April, had a quality year in 2022, working to a 3.12 ERA over 66 1/3 innings in Oakland’s bullpen. That came with above-average strikeout (27.1%) and walk (8.2%) rates. He was miserly against left-handed hitters, limiting them to just a .153/.250/.259 line.
That was the first full-season of work for Puk, who’d battled injuries and thrown just 24 2/3 innings at the top level since making his debut in 2019. He’d had mixed success in that time, working to a 4.74 ERA over those innings.
Puk was drafted and developed as a starter, but switched to the bullpen at Triple-A and hasn’t made a start at the big league level. With that being said, A’s GM David Forst said in December that Puk would prepare for the season as a starter and compete for a rotation spot in spring training. Given the Marlins plethora of starting options, it seems unlikely he’ll wind up anywhere other than the bullpen for his new team though.
Puk leans almost exclusively on a 97mph fastball and an 87mph slider, though he has thrown a changeup on occasion in the past. He’ll slot in as a third left-handed option in Miami’s bullpen alongside Tanner Scott and Steven Okert. Puk would’ve been close to being a Super Two player, but is under control at a pre-arbitration rate for 2023, before beginning his three seasons of arbitration in 2024.
In return, Oakland picks up Bleday, 25, a fourth overall pick by the Marlins in the 2019 draft. He had a strong year at Triple-A last year, and was rewarded with his first call up to the big leagues. Despite hitting .228/.365/.470 with 20 home runs at the top level of the minors, Bleday couldn’t continue that in the majors, hitting just .167/.277/.309 with five home runs over 238 plate appearances.
Bleday saw the majority of his time in center field last year, earning -3 Outs Above Average in 330 innings at the position. He’s generally been seen as a corner outfielder long term though, and defensive metrics liked him better in those positions.
Ramon Laureano is the only nailed-on starter in Oakland’s outfielder, and Bleday will compete with Cristian Pache and Esteury Ruiz for the other two spots. Bleday is under control for at least six more seasons, although he has all of his minor league options remaining, so the A’s could end up opting to give him a bit more time at Triple-A, which would of course delay his service time clock depending on how long he spends in the minors.
Wasn’t long ago that Puk was a top prospect. Interesting to add pitching depth to the Marlins when they’re already so deep.
Says something about Bleday.
No kidding.
Thought Bleday was a hot prospect. Must have turned suspect.
Two seasons worth of games in the minors with an OPS of around .700 will do that to ya.
Looks like a .835 OPS in AAA last year per the article
And didn’t hit well before that in either A or AA.
80 games with 20 HR and a 12% walk rate. In other words, small sample theater.
Now marlins have both Puk and luzardo. Both for years, were hyped as being A’s future aces, only to have inconsistent results and injuries.
Phils took Moniak 1/1, shoulda been Puk….
They’re both no better than 4th or 5th rounders it turns out. That was a bad draft. Best first rounder was either Ian Anderson or Gavin Lux. Yuck.
Lux has already posted over 4 WAR as a 24 year old. Nothing yuck about that.
Ian Anderson will figure it out, bruv..
Ian Anderson (career postseason):
35.2 IP, 4-0, 1.26 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
Between the shoulder injury from late-2021 and the disrupted offseason due to the lockout — Anderson was never on track in ’22. He’ll be back.
5.3 bWAR in 1003 PA. 2 full seasons worth. Its about half a point above MLB average. Which is good. You need slightly above average players. Its the below average ones you don’t want.
Puk wouldn’t have changed the club’s fortunes in any past year save maybe as a trade asset.
Agree DS, but Puk had MLB caliber arm….still does…
Moniak was NOT a reach at all. Plenty of teams had him ranked high….
Moniak wasn’t really a reach, but I think it is fair to say that he was not really considered the #1 draft prospect that year. Most mocks had him top 10, so it’s not like he was a bad prospect, but he was definitely a surprise pick to most.
Puk was seriously in the convo for #1, but he was involved with some prank or other….and then sign-ability was thrown out there,,,,
2016 draft was not the best….
Heh, a prank? He’s a probable headcase, also an anti-vaxxer we couldn’t take for Blue Jays road trips.
So he’s smarter than most?
And T-bag has joined the chat.
Than most (but not all) of the lesser apes.
Not a thing wrong with not wanting the take the vax. It was a personal choice that he exercised.
The personal choice is fine, the career choice is more worrying.
@danyekim
Marlins are deep with starting pitchers, but thin in the bullpen. Interesting that they pick up Puk shortly after Barnes.
Funny they did it after Marlins FanFest today.
You say the pen is thin. I see 5 (including Puk) decent relievers, three question marks, and several MLB-ready pieces in the minors. What do you see?
A whole bunch of guys that have shown that they can blow any size lead over the last two years. Until they show different, that’s what we have.
Considering the way the roster is constructed, the Marlins would probably be the team that benefits the most from adding a top-tier reliever.
With Puk the Marlins have 5 guys in the pen that had above average ERA and FIP last season and 3 guys that were below average but still in the low 4s. No shut down closer, but that is a pretty decent pen. If Barnes pitches like he did at the end of 2022 then that is a really good pen.
Wait, the Marlins really have a FanFest?
Is that at a conference room of a local library?
@DogDays2
How original. Go back to watching E!SPN for more material.
Sorry, didn’t know you were so uptight.
I kinda thought the library reference was unique.
It’s an old joke from E!SPN. Nothing new here in your efforts. Go back to watching E!SPN.
Ok , thanks Rodney Dangerfield. Some of us don’t spend 20 hours a day watching Sportscenter like you.
You go back to repeating yourself.
I don’t watch E!SPN programming. Clearly, considering how you use one of their routines, you do.
You know their routines, but don’t watch it.
Yeah ok .
You’re one guy with the username of MarlinsFanBase, and yet you’re offended when people joke about their lack of fans.
You don’t see that irony? lol
Sorry I’m late reading this as I was checking on when the a’s fan fest was going to be held but found out it was cancelled this year as both fans called in sick.
How ever did you come up with such a clever and original joke?
He’s a 3 inning long reliever and he’s gonna be a good one. He came up with Luzardo in the A’s system. As an A’s fan the marlins got a greedy deal
When I lst saw this trade, it made me want to puk.
Don’t get this one at all.
Was thinking the same exact thing…
Marlins thought they were getting Wolfgang Puck?
Either way, I will be very surprised if A’s squeeze any value out of Bleday.
Advantage fish.
A’s owner Fisher wants the A’s get the record for worst season ever. Looks like he has done a good job at that. Puk was good as a lefty out of the pen. All the A’s get is some 5th outfielder off the bench with no power and no average. A’s GM Forst still in a coma for the last 2 years.
Clueless take.
yes you have a clueless take. Try forming a real comment with facts next time you will do better.
Well, the Marlins give up a guy that may not have the skills necessary to make it at the big league level, and the A’s give up someone with MLB ready skills but is constantly injured. Seems like more of a long shot for the A’s, but Fisher is excited about getting rid of any player close to arbitration.
Well, it’s AJ vs. JJ.
Mathematically 64.4% chance the Athletics win this trade with JJ, 1.7% chance it’s a tie. Oakland just has to dodge the Marlins catching an ace.
Mathematically %100 chance you pulled those numbers out of thin air.
Marlins made out like bandits. Bledday can’t hit at all and Puk has a lot of potential
? you wonder player dont want stay in marlins
Puk’s a lefty specialist reliever now and is almost 28. No more potential.
Puk is a 1 to 2 inning lefty out of the pen. Great fastball but his secondary stuff is OK. His problem was always after a go through the lineup other teams were timing on his fast ball.
Question marks go at the end of a sentence. Sometimes, words are plural. Always be sure to check for left out words!
Puk wanted to start in Oakland, before the Fujinami signing and Irvin trade. Now he won’t get that chance in Miami.
There might not be a worse team at drafting players than Miami. Maybe Oakland ironically enough.
Oakland for years have usually targeted guys who are as close to the majors as possible. Some who have already peaked and reach their ceiling and aren’t ever going to be superstars.
Then they drafted kyler Murray for some reason and reached to get him. Oakland hasn’t been successful the last couple years not because they haven’t spent, it’s their farm system isn’t spitting out average mlbers lately. Teams can be competitive with bottom tier payrolls but they can’t do that without drafting and developing well.
Not sure it’s possible even if you draft and develop well anymore, sadly. Rays and Brewers are the last hopes, and the Brewers aren’t THAT low a payroll team and rely heavily on a bad division and three elite starting pitchers. The Rays are it, and let’s see if they can hang. I think it’s mainly just been a run of good luck and they will start to decline into the AL East basement because they can’t spend.
Cleveland is great and Pittsburgh looks promising.
Cleveland does well because they are great at developing pitchers and credit to them. Pittsburg hasn’t done anything, yet.
Puk seems like a guy that Bloom would like, great fastball and injury prone
Puk to close? Bleday didnt hit a ton in his debut which presents a lot of risk
I thought Ng said that it would be a closer by committee? There are 4 guys on that squad that had 7 or more saves last season.
OK so a once-top pitching prospect who’s still young and talented gets traded for a once-top hitting prospect who’s still young and talented and …
It’s the Marlins getting the pitcher and the A’s getting the hitter?
Thanks for the summary. Super helpful.
This sets up a Seth Brown deal
I wouldn’t be surprised if Fisher demands an AA batboy in return. FU John Fisher. FU to He!!
If it’s wrong for this A’s fan to wake up everyday hoping John Fisher played unsuccessfully on the freeway the night before, then I don’t want to be right
No, just makes you a nutcase.
Advantage MIA – the bust they got was the lest spectacular one.
Although I agree, puk looks better so far. I wouldn’t call either of them a bust yet. Austin Riley and Kyle tucker both looked like busts too if you judge Riley by his first two years and tucker by his 2018 small sample. Jj has time to become a good hitter with experience and AJ was a really good reliever last year.
Marina – I get what you’re saying and I love the positivity. That being said, both Tucker and Riley were 23 when they broke out. Bleday will be 25 and a half when he steps on the field for the A’s.
While he has the potential to improve, fix the holes in his swing and become a great player, I don’t reasonably think that he’s going to be near the stars that you’ve mentioned.
@danye
Thanks, positive is my goal for 2023 and I’m not ready to give up on him yet, 25 is still young and he was at one point a highly touted prospect. Now, I don’t expect him to be Kyle tucker because he is one of the great young players in the game, but, I think JJ could become a decently productive regular (maybe 111 wrc+ and league average or slightly better defense in a corner outfield spot?)
Yeah he definitely has that big-time talent and from all accounts I hear he’s a great person. I’m sure getting regular at-bats on that team is definitely going to lead him down the path to help him reach his fullest potential out there in Socal. From the few games I’ve seen of the Marlins he seems to play the outfield well, and I’m sure he will continue to develop his bat.
Bingo, and Tucker and Riley were much better in the Minors too.
Socal?
The difference is both Riley and Tucker hit well in the minors. Bleday hit .225/.337/.409/.746 in the minors.
Bleday was DRAFTED in ’19 then came the cancellation of the ’20 season. So, his MILB “developmental” time is REALLY skewed AND screwed up. This ’23 is technically his 3rd full season. This is going to be his age 25 season. So, with that in mind, I think there’s still a good chance that he’ll have a decent career.
@prospectnvstr
Thank you for doing a better job at explaining what I was trying to say.
Yeah not the best comparison.
Bleday hit .225/..337/..408 at ages 21-24 in the minors.
Riley hit .282/..346/.497 at ages 18-22 in the minors.
Bleday failed in the majors as a 24-year-old..
Riley hit .303/.367/.531 in the majors as a 24-year-old.
May not be “the best comparison” but my point still stands. Riley and Tucker were just two names that came off the top in the 30 seconds I spent typing. Your definitely right about him not hitting like Riley and Tucker though they were just two recent examples of players who struggled when they first reached the majors. The point I was trying to make was that not every player rakes in their first taste of upper minors or majors and that it was to soon to write JJ off even if he is a couple years older.I apologize if I didn’t do the best of jobs summarizing the point I was trying to make.
Puk is 3 years older than Bleday. I dunno about that. Puk is now a lefty specialist reliever and he’s 28. He is what he is. Bleday hasn’t hit yet, so it’s a longshot, but if you squint you can still see some upside with him.
Nah. Puk at least has a floor as a useful MLB RP. Bleday hasn’t even hit well enough in the Minors to be classified as a AAAA player.
Yea, but they got a constantly injured headcase, so hard to say.
Just because he didn’t fall into line with the rest of you sheep and get vaxxed doesn’t make him a headcase.
Please stop with the political Bs guys. We get bombarded with enough of that nonsense in the media and other places online nobody cares which “side” you identify with and I’m so tired of people that insult others because they have a different opinion on a matter. As far as I’m concerned the only thing politics is good for is dividing people and make people focus on the things that make us different instead of the things we have in common.
It’s not political when these issues affect the player’s ability to do their job. Teams dump headcases all the time because they don’t listen to the coaching staff or show up to spring training 30 pounds overweight. It’s likely he dropped down in the draft for a reason.
He is doing just fine for himself now. He finally stayed healthy for a season and it’s not affecting his performance now so I wouldn’t call him a head case. I wasn’t just talking about you in the first post.
Great comment Mariana, but by not choosing a side…. You’ll have to be cancelled by the site and its fans, and some will dig in to your background and try to get you fired.
Case, good luck with your agenda.
But who dropped down in the draft? Puk?
Looks like the Marlins came out on top
An OF, one of the Marlins stated needs, for a reliever? I am confused. Why?
The Marlins bullpen sucks worse than their offense.
Additionally, the Marlins have a surplus of corner OFs, so Bleday was expendable because he’s already behind de la Cruz and Sanchez for opportunities. Also, Burdick and Encarnacion have at least caught up to him…some feeling Encarnacion also have surpassed him.
With Puk, the players projected to make up that pen in 2023 had a 3.79 ERA and a 3.83 FIP last season. That is about league average, so it obviously doesn’t suck.
As recently as 3 weeks ago in the Arraez press conference, Ng said that the team’s biggest need was OF. That was knowing that Chisholm was moving to CF.
Seems like a repeat theme this off-season, A’s lose a trade again. I had no idea Bleday could draw anyone, let alone a solid back end reliever. Well done Kim Ng
I can’t remember the last time the A’s made a transaction that actually made sense.
Looks like Oakland is about to overtake Miami as the most literal who team in the league.
I don’t watch much Marlins, but I thought bledday was a top prospect. I’m assuming the marlins, and most of baseball apparently, know much more on this topic than I do, especially about Bledel, because when I saw the headline i thought, what are the marlins doing??
He was, but mostly due to draft position (he was a stud in college). But he really hasn’t hit much as a pro. Has major holes in his swing. But on the other hand, Puk isn’t any good either. Is now a reliever and not a great one. Had a decent year last year but mostly because of his home stadium. and on left vs left. That kind of reliever usually isn’t worth a power hitting outfielder.
Thanks, that helps understand the situation better.
Saying Puk isn’t any good is just flat out wrong…
If he touches the Marlins he sucks. Acuna could get traded to Miami and Miami will have been “fleeced”. It’s silly.
Last year is the only year he’s gotten any significant time in the majors, and his numbers were exactly how I described them: Heavily dependent on home games and left on left. He’s a specialist now. He was also horrible in AAA in 2021. He’s the definition of mediocre, last guy in the pen (on a good team). Maybe setup man on a rebuilder.
Seam, Puk had a worse ERA and FIP at home. 4.03 ERA at home to 2.41 on the road. He was the opposite of dependent on home games. He was one of the best in baseball against LHB.
Over the last 2 seasons his FIP in the majors is 3.62 and his ERA+ is 106. His performance was better than average,
He won’t be the Marlins shutdown closer. He will be a setup man.
Try looking at the stats before you comment.
Seems as if neither Marlins nor A’s fans like this deal. That’s often a sign it’s a fair deal. I’m not a fan of either team. I dislike this more from the A’s side.
I mean it’s like a couple people complaining but nothing is ever good enough for most. It’s a fair trade. Marlins fan here, I think the Marlins are doing some good things.
Well, if a minority of loud people are complaining on the internet I guess the sun hasn’t exploded yet.
Puk’s problem his entire career has not been talent He is a very talented pitcher when healthy. His problem has been one injury after the next.
Last season Puk had a 120 ERA+. That adjusts for park and league. He was 20% better than the average reliever.
He had a 2.41 ERA on the road and a 4.03 ERA at home, so his performance was not buoyed by his home park.
He was extremely stingy to LHB. They put up a 48 OPS+ against him. That is not a bad thing.
He also pitched better in medium and high leverage situations than he did in low leverage situations. That is also not a bad thing.
Overall he was a good pitcher. A valuable addition to the Marlins bullpen.
The biggest question mark for me was not that the Marlins traded for him in particular, it’s that they traded away an OF when they have been vocal about OF being a need for the team.
So you’re saying OF was a need when JJ was ON the team, so they obviously didn’t think he was the answer. Now they still need an OF, but have added Puk to the pen.
Not outfielder, centerfielder. I like this deal for the fish
web, I commented before I read your post and said basically the same thing. I would take a couple of setup guys with that profile in our pen. Wouldn’t you?
Vero, After the Arraez trade and knowing Chisholm was moving to CF, Ng was still saying the Marlins biggest need was OF. She didn’t specify CF.
Bleday will need some time to figure it out, but how is Puk a bad reliever?
You know there are stats out there right?
Puk on the road last year: 2.41 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
Fangraphs recently gave Bleday a 40 FV for “came from a hole in Bleday’s swing (fastballs up and away from him) that seemed likely to be exploited by big league arms.”
That doesn’t mean he can’t be fixed, but may Miami doesn’t want to risk it.
Bleday has not hit in either the minors or the majors.
Puk hasn’t pitched in either the majors or minors, except for some left on left action in limited innings last year.
62 appearances and 66.1 IP is not limited for a reliever. Its a very solid amount of work. He pitched more innings than appearances so he was obviously not a LOOGY.
Did he sleep with your wife? Is that why you dislike him so much?
That is funny.
Marlins cornering the former top 100 prospect Oakland left-handed pitchers market
This is probably gonna be a deal that turns into another deal with a arm going elsewhere for another bat.. otherwise this doesn’t make a lot of sense
I wonder if anyone has bothered to check Puk’s stats yet?
The A’s in year two now of an incomprehensibly bad rebuild. Bleday will fit in perfectly.
I guess Puk was arb eligible in 20 years. Way to save $3 A’s.
Y tho?
This tells me the A’s think Bleday has a better chance of starting in CF long term over Pache.
“Alright, finished unpacking in the Spring rental. Now time to kick back, watch the big game, and report to camp”
Riiiing
If they turn Puk into a starter they just replaced Pablo Lopez. Ask yourself, which duo would you rather have Luis Arraez + AJ Puk or JJ Bleday + Pablo Lopez? I’d probably demand the first pair if given the choice.
This
Two rather unusual names traded for each other.
When I have too many Bleday Mary’s in the morning I want to Puk
Looks like Moneyball here. What does Bleday do? Get on base. Puk is going through Arb the next 3 seasons. His staus as a RP vs a potential everyday OF. Sell high buy low. Definitely see what both teams are going for here, works for both sides.
Was at Bledays debut doing a pinch hit job.. and what’d he do? He drew a walk. The end. Thank you very much
The pinnacle of scouting
Icefishermantone: So, did he come around & score? If so, GREAT JOB. If he didn’t score at least he kept the batting order moving & rcvd a “Good job kid”. Either way he started his MLB career w a 1.000 on base %.
.277 on base % says he doesn’t get on base.
Eye his AAA OB. Eye that .277 with that BA. As a small sized rookie sample. I’m not saying he’s a sure thing but he’s proven he’ll carry a good walk rate and if the BA just reaches ML average that’s a win on this trade.
Its just everything he’s done in the majors, that’s all. His minor league stats are not impressive either and that’s the minor leagues!
If he gets to the Mendoza line in the majors after hitting .225 in the minors it will be a miracle. Maybe the overflowing sewers in the locker rooms in Oakland County Coliseum will inspire him to not play like sewage.
It’s a gamble. But former #4 draft pick in 2019. Means 0 games played in 2020. He has barely more than 1 season’s worth of Games played in the minors prior to being called up. 25HRs overall last season. This could turn out big or total loss. If Bleday steps forward, Oak or any team isn’t trading for him with just the value of Puk. This is buying low and Oakland sells high when these types create more value. They’ll have options if they want to see more experience in AAA.
Marlins got fleeced. Such a stupid trade for the fish.
How so? Every single Marlins move since 1993:
“Marlins got “fleeced””
Lol. They could trade Mike Pelfrey for Gary Sheffield in their primes (I’m being funny) and they’d get “fleeced” from opinionated people.
They also got fleeced on the Ozuna for Sandy and Gallen Trade. Go to the comment section from 2017 or whenever it was, you’ll get a little humor in it.
At first I didn’t like the deal but 5 min later I realized it’s a great deal. Miami’s team and farm system isn’t looking too bad and their starting pitching is surreal. They’re going to be really good soon enough.
With Jazz moving to CF the Marlins have far too many comer OF’s.
No place on the roster for Bleday.
Marlins got an arm for Stottlemyre to work with.
Clear win for the A’s. They get a regular starter that already showed higher end BB% and he has some power. The average should eventually come around. Even if he hits .240 with the BB% the OBP should be around .360. Good speed, good arm in the outfield. He was by far the best hitting prospect the Marlins brought out recently. He’s not a mega prospect, but you’re getting high end OBP with power
Puk is a solid reliever, but there’s major injury risk and relievers tend to be volatile year to year
Finding an OF with that OBP potential who also has a little power and speed is harder to find than a reliever. Plus they get 5 years of control
I’m not sure what the Marlins are thinking. They just traded their best hitter outside Chisholm last year
I realize he only hit .167 or whatever it was, but the walk rates were very good. With more major league at bats, the average might come up
Bleday has batted below .230 in each of the last 2 minor league seasons. Idk if you can expect him to hit .240.
Maybe not, but with time some guys end up matching or exceeding their minor league numbers
Even if he can hit .220 the OBP will be around .360. Projected over a full season he would have had over 70 walks last year
That’s upper tier walk rates. If he somehow figured it out, hits .250 with 15-25 HR, he’d be one of the better hitters in the league
To have a .360 obp with a .220 average would require something like. 19% BB rate. You can’t assume any player, even he most elite disciplined hitter can sustain that.
Honestly based on his batted ball profile and minor league numbers he may be a sub .220 hitter. He doesn’t really have Gallo power so something will have to give.
Belday had a .337 OBP in the minors and .277 for Miami. Not sure where you are getting .360 from because that would have required that he increase his BB% to over 20%. That is 4% better than anyone not named Juan Soto.
The problem with your premise of him getting 70 walks is that no player is getting 600 PA with a 67 OPS+.
He had 30 BB in 238 PA at the major league level last year. He’d need 556 PA to get to 70 BB. Thats 138 starts
If he manages to hit .240 the OBP is .365
Yes, 30 BB in 238 PA is a very big deal. An outfielder with good speed and a good arm who potentially hits .240/.365/.440 is a very big deal
Again, you’re hoping that a guy who has batted below .230 the last two years hits .240 after striking out over 25% of the time at Triple-A. He drew 30 walks but he also struck out 67 times. That’s a 28.2% K%. You’re hoping for a Joey Gallo when Joey Gallo is a unicorn.
He hit .229 at AAA in 2022, vs. .212 at AA in 2021. SLG went from .373 at AA to .470 at AAA. K rate dropped
This is indication that given time he’s ultimately able to figure it out
He’s entering prime years. He’ll either figure out major league pitching or not. If he does figure it out he should hit at least .240
It depends on how long the A’s will stick with him
2021 – 47% Flyball rate
2022 – 53% Flyball rate
Guys who hit flyballs like he does don’t hit .240 unles they start parking 1 every 5 flyballs (20% HR/FB rate) which he has been nowhere close to.
Your prediction that he will be a .240 hitter is based solely on hope, which is fine. Just know its completely unfounded without a change in approach.
Then he went from a .229 AVG/.470 SLG at Triple-A to a .167 AVG/.309 SLG in the major leagues. He’s not ‘entering his prime years.’ He’s a 25 year old who has struggled to manage his strikeouts and posted the eigth worst OPS by a major league rookie in the last five years with as many plate appearances as him.
But 30 BB in 238 PA. It takes time to get timing down at a new level. He’s working counts and getting good pitches to hit. Just needs to put it all together
Prime years are age 25 to 30. So yes, he is ‘entering his prime years’
Agreed. He’s not a finished product. He does indeed need to change SOME things about his approach. People are comparing him to other who didn’t get their MILB developmental time screwed up by 1+ yrs. Even though he was DRAFTED in 2019 followed by the canceled 2020 season. His first professional season was in 2021. Last season was his 2nd full professional season. When you have that long of a layoff there’s almost assuredly going to be some skewed #’s.
OMG, and then you double down on hilarious. Do you do stand up at the Punch Line in SF?
If he had hit .220, his OBP would have been .330, not .360. .167 to .220 is 53 points. 277 + 53 = 330. The math is not hard. If it is for you, just punch the numbers into the browser. There is a calculator there.
You do realize that to improve from a .167 BA and .277 OBP to get to a .360 OBP he would either have to miraculously hit 83 points higher or even more miraculously morph into Juan Soto and have a BB% over 20%?
OBP would have been .345 at .220 if you did the math properly. That’s “around .360” as I said
Look, like most people, you don’t have any idea how to evaluate anything. You just counteract and argue with the few people (me) who do know what they’re doing
And that’s true in baseball and in life everywhere. The .02% of the people who know what’s going on have to face the violent opposition of the other 99.8% who don’t know what they’re doing
So math IS hard for you.
To go from a .167 BA to .220 BA is a 53 point jump.
His OBP was .277.
.277 + .53 = .330
.330 is not around .360. For that matter, neither is your imaginary .345
Unlike you I have a grasp of basic math. No one is violently opposed to you. Mostly, we pity people like you that have no ability to do basic math. Even more than that, we pity people like you that think they understand baseball.
Pads, the argument you are making, about hitting .167, is the same type of inexperienced take everyone else here is also making
Like the others, it shows you don’t really grasp how player development works
I rarely come on the internet and make comments because I am always accosted by the mob of inexperienced casuals who don’t understand whats going on
The “how will his avg jump from .167?” argument you make is one that I figured someone would try at some point
Let’s say in 500 ABs he hits .220. That’s 110 hits. If he also has 80 BBs (13.8% BB rate), that only gives him a .327 OBP. To get the a .360 OBP he would need 110 BBs in 620 PAs (18% BB rate).
Very, very few hitters sustain that and I am not ready to knight Bleday as one of these elite guys
And yeah, I admit, in the initial stages of my thinking without really running the numbers and making a primitive projection I said “even if he hits .220 the OBP should be around .360”. I’m a secondary post. But I was also assuming the BB% would improve in prime years. Of course this is the great opportunity for all the hordes of casuals to pick out an argument based on calculations, rather than debate the main point
My original comment was .240, not .220
Nevertheless, endless casuals are just trying to pick out any argument they can make just for the sake of showing how superior they are
These people wouldn’t even be aware of Bledays BB rates or why Beane made the trade in the first place if it weren’t for this post
When you have hours and hours of experience with baseball simulations and statistics as I do you sometimes just look at the BB totals and off the top of your head project what the OBP would be at higher AVG
In Bleday’s case, since his average was only .167, it was a little harder to project what the OBP would be
My original post was based on .240. Of course, since people who don’t know always have to nit pick an argument to appear smarter, someone replied ( as I knew would happen) with the argument that he hit so low in the minors and wouldn’t hit .240
You just knew countless casuals would come in with that argument to try and look smart
So then I said, “even if he hits .220 the OBP would be around .360”
I was casually, off the top of my head, projecting what the OBP would be based on his 30 BB in 238 PA
Of course, the latest horde of people who don’t know what they’re doing and want to appear smart think they’re being clever by pointing out at .220 a .360 OBP is kind of a stretch.
Which I agree, it is. Belay, if he hits .220, won’t be up that high, but could be around .335 to .340 at .220 if the BB rates improve
You have to understand, the hordes and hordes of casuals who always nitpick technical errors or they nitpick any argument for anything, are the ones who don’t know what’s going on. They will argue anything trying to appear smart, and if they find a technical error they pounce
I knew I would get the “well he only hit .167” “he only hit .212 in the minors” arguments
These people don’t have any idea what’s going on. They will incessantly nitpick any and every argument ridiculously trying to find something that will make them appear more knowledgeable
These people are the reason I don’t comment online at all anymore, except in rare occasions like this
Even if he bats .250 in 500 at bats, he’d need a really good walk rate. I just don’t know know if he can do that.
Bleday’s 12.6 BB% would be good enough for 11th in the entire league for qualified batters!
This is why the A’s wanted him!
Camden, he hit .167 last season. To have had a .220 BA LAST season that meant increasing it by 0.53 LAST SEASON. A 0.53 higher BA would mean he had a .330 OBP LAST SEASON.
Trying to insult me and change the discussion to player development is disingenuous when the conversation is about what he did last season.
You cannot predict what he will do next season. You don’t even understand what he did LAST season.
The projection system that likes him the most projects a .208/.306/.375/.681 slashline in 2023. That is a realistic ceiling taking into account what scouts are saying about his game plus player development along with what he did last season in the minors and the majors. All of the rest of the projection systems had his OPS coming in under .660.
You can claim to have an understanding of player development, but the people that are behind those projection systems actually do understand it.
You don’t come on here very often because people tell you that you are wrong all the time. It must get old getting shown up so often by people that actually have more than a casual interest in the game.
Very few? How about only one. Juan Soto is the only MLB player that had more than a 15.9% walk rate last season or over 15.4% over the last 3.
That is why what Camden is saying shows a complete lack of understanding of the game. He is trying to say that Bleday is as good as Soto at drawing walks.
To get to .240 from .167 is a 73 point jump. A 43.7% increase. His OBP at a BA of .167 was .277. That takes his OBP to .350
But only IF he is able to maintain a 12.6% walk rate while putting a minimum of 40% more balls in play than the pace he was on that put him at a .167/.277.
That is the key. He cannot continue to draw walks at the same pace while simultaneously swinging at that many more pitches. That is why all the projection systems have him hitting about the Mendoza line with a .650-.660 OPS.
ONLY you think he will do better than that. Obviously the Marlins didn’t because they traded him for a reliever and are giving Bryan De La Cruz the playing time he would have had.
Baseball simulations? You mean video games?
Our discussions are over. It is fruitless to argue with below average minds
They dont have the knowledge or ability to adequately discuss anything. All they do is look for anything to argue to try and make themselves feel superior
It is not about being personally superior
Below average minds and casuals don’t have the knowledge base or understanding to debate anything in depth or in good will. All they do is pick something out of a comment to oppose so they can feel superior by calling the other person stupid
This is 99% of the people online, which is why I don’t bother anymore
I knew as I was writing my comment that casuals would come up with “well he only hit .167”, “he only hit .212 in the minors and there’s no reason to expect he’ll hit .240”
People who don’t have any clue what is going on and no knowledge to draw from try to find anything to argue to feel like they know better
The few people who do know what’s going on don’t act like that
On rare occasions I am impressed with a reply I get on this that shows the person has a deeper knowledge of baseball. None of that is the case with any of the people who replied. It is more of the people who don’t understand much
They are all sure they know so much, but it isn’t the case
When I read the comments here it is clear that almost all of them are from people who do not understand baseball and there’s no reason to reply
These are the same people who will spam and troll every comment I make trying to pick it apart and find something wrong with it
And pads, the arguments you’re making, about Soto’s BB% and Bleday’s .167 average, prove you don’t think with any depth about baseball
As I was writing the comment about Bleday’s 12.6 BB% I was thinking to myself, “oh great a casual is now going to site a top guys BB% and say there’s no way Bleday will match that, and say I’m saying Bleday will be up there with Soto and the top BB guys”
You’re doing what every casual always does with arguments I knew you would make
All I said in my original post was “if Bleday hits .240” then he should have an OBP “around .360”
I didn’t make a judgement call either way that Bleday would hit .240, I just said IF he does
There isn’t a single counter argument anyone made here that showed they have any real understanding how baseball works
What superior knowledge are you talking about? You’re saying that a guy who has consistently struggled to make consistent contact is all of a sudden going to post his best batting average in the last three years. You wouldn’t reasonablly expect a guy who consistently hits for average power to all of a sudden become a massive power threat. Let me give you an example of what I mean. Take Gabriel Moreno. He’s consistently been a hit-over-power kind of prospect. He’s averaged about 17 home runs every 600 plate appearances, has a .479 slugging percentage, and .169 isolated slugging in his minor league career. There’s probably not a reasonable Diamondbacks fan who is expecting him to hit 25 home runs, up his SLG% to above .500, and his ISO to above .200 without major change in his game or physicality. Bleday could absoutley make a ton of changes next year and hit .240, but is it reasonable to expect him to do so? That’s the point I’m trying to make.
Camden, Can you name any?
Camden, YOU said he could do it. You are so lacking in knowledge of baseball that you didn’t even realize what you were saying even after 3 people pointed it out to you.
There is a reason no one agrees with you. Why no one ever likes your comments. You are always wrong.
Camden, your comment was worth a huge laugh. TY. I needed a good laugh today.
Yeah, it’s always funny coming on the internet and arguing with people like you who don’t have any idea what’s going on
99.8% of the people don’t really understand how to evaluate anything, which includes most scouts and “baseball people”
People who get in baseball aren’t necessarily those who are good at scouting or evaluating, just those who decided on a career in baseball
As for fans, they are the same, can’t fundamentally evaluate anything, and worse are casual and have little experience
Try showing you have even a passing understanding of baseball and maybe we won’t laugh at you anymore.
pads, again, I’m sitting back laughing at the counter arguments everyone is making that I knew they would all make as I was writing the comment
The flyball rate was a particularly funny and innovative one, and then I knew everyone would cite the K rate, avg arguments
The funny thing is, these people argue just for the sake of arguing, not because they actually disagree, but just to try and come off like they know more
Believe me, I’ve been in these arguments thousands of times over the years with casuals. I rarely comment online anymore because it’s senseless to argue with the ignorant
pads, I can cite hundreds of examples of takes I’ve made over the years that were met with violent opposition by a mob of people but which ultimately turned out accurate
I said at the end of 2015 season the Mets should trade Matt Harvey because he won’t be the same pitcher
I said before last year Braves should trade Acuna because he won’t be the same
Said in spring training 2019 after seeing video that Tim Anderson was one of the better hitters in the league. Everyone cited his .240 average in 2018 and had the same violent opposition they always do
Hundreds of other examples
If you understand what’s actually going on, your assessments will always be unpopular
Camden is just smarter than everyone else, so case closed! Glad we could clear that up.
@super, yes, some people are better. Michael Jordan is better at basketball. That’s just how things work
The confederacy of dunces will always come out in opposition to the top people
HUNDREDS!!!! Why not thousands. Better question, why are you lying? Does it make you feel better about yourself?
I like both of them. Puk has been injured forever it seems. Bleday was drafted one spot ahead of Riley Greene and I was hoping he would fall to the Tigers. Hindsight being 20-20 I’m glad he didn’t, but… I would still have cheered if they had picked him up. Change of scenery trade? Here’s hoping it works out for both.
Getting a starting pitcher for an outfielder is a great deal. Getting a reliever though, as Puk will likely remain, might tell you something about the perception of Bleday.
Unless they see Puk as a closer? A lights out closer has lots of value. If he saves 30 games for the Marlins this year no one will complain even if Bleday hits 20 homers for the A’s…which I’m betting he will. Time will tell.
Classic JJ for AJ move
Bleday and Torkelson both were apparently overrated coming out of college. Both had great years at the right time. Nether of them were “can’t miss prospects” coming out of high school. Both are Reggie Jackson during BP and Michael Jackson during the game
Unlike Bleday, Torkelson impressed in the minors. I’d guess that Torkelson becomes the substantially better hitter than Bleday – which will be necessary, since he brings only minimal defensive value at best.
Gruß,
BSHH
They both just got drafted in the last couple years, have played part of an MLB season and you write them off? I’d hate to have you as a GM. Ouch
I’d hate to be their GM too because their GM’s both got fired!
I’ll give you that point for sure! Last year Tork actually had pretty good plate discipline with the Tigers but should have started in the minors. He was good there the year prior and they rushed him. If he doesn’t improve this year then I’d be worried. I’m not worried right now after he’s only played part of a season though. You can’t judge a player on one bad season, especially not someone that young.
On the surface, it looks like the Marlins acquired Puk as a bullpen piece. But he’s been preparing to start, so at the moment he’s another starter for a team looking to use its excess starting pitching to trade for a big bat.
Maybe this helps strengthen their bid for Bryan Reynolds…
Will never trust puks health history but the stuff is there
Moonlight Graham;
The Bryan Reynolds to Miami ship has sailed.
Jazz is playing CF (probably better than Reynolds). They’re paying Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler a lot of money to either play a corner or DH – along with Garrett Cooper. They’re developing 2 young OF’s in Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez. Heck, even Jon Berti can get some time in CF and LF.
They’re not trading Max Meyer or another top prospect – which the Pirates are asking for – along with some other prospects for 3 years of Reynolds.
You listed quite a few players who play outfield. But there’s a difference between filling out a roster with people in uniforms and having the impact players to compete.
I want to see Sanchez thrive, but he’s been slow to come around. If there’s any value there or in De La Cruz, then include one of them in a Reynolds package, and move Reynolds to a corner. Or move Chisholm back to the infield and find a new home for Wendle.
Three years of Reynolds is a fair amount of time, especially considering that the time to compete is now, with the rotation they’ve assembled. It’s not like they can just wait for Steve Cohen to stop spending, or for Bryce Harper and Trea Turner to retire, or for the Braves to fall apart.
Meyer won’t pitch this year, and he’ll probably need some seasoning in the minors to get back on track. By the time he’s ready, Eury Perez will be in the rotation, maybe Sixto Sanchez will finally be healthy, and Braxton Garrett will still be looking for a rotation spot. (Garrett would be a fantastic No. 5 on any team.)
Convert some of that extra pitching capital into actionable offense.
Moonlight Graham;
I’m saying that the Marlins have moved on from Reynolds. That’s not my opinion, that’s a fact. It’s why they’re moving Jazz to CF – because they can’t find an affordable CF.
–
Do you actually think that with a few trades – along with an inability to take on large salaries in them – the Marlins can vault over the Braves, Phillies, and Mets to win the NLE in the next few years; or finish with a record to win a playoff spot over the likes of 10 other non-division winning NL teams?
Do you understand that Bryan Reynolds is a very nice player, but there are at least 25 better all-around corner OF’s in MLB than him today? He’s not going to turn a team around. The Phillies got Bryce Harper a few years ago without having to trade any players for him. He didn’t turn the Phillies around his first 2 years (including as an MVP in his 2nd). Dombrowski had to make a series of moves for 2 years. Those Phillies that Bryce initially came to were better than the Marlins are today (Nola and Wheeler headed the pitching staff). Bryan Reynolds is not – and will never be – the impact HOF player Bryce Harper was and is.
I don’t know what you’re trying to prove.
First off, Reynolds is probably a top-15 outfielder, and he’d likely be even more impressive/impactful if he were in a more competitive lineup. He has no protection in Pittsburgh, and yet has put up a .900 OPS season, as well as an .880 season.
Whatever the Phillies did once Harper arrived is irrelevant. Every roster is a unique situation from year to year. With the Marlins, they have the pitching. Now they need enough the offense. And I think they’re within striking distance of being competitive if they add an impact bat. They’ve done a nice job of trading for Arraez and signing Segura. Now, get a guy who will drive in runs.
Not trying to prove anything, other than to point out the Marlins would be well-served to swap some excess young pitching for impact offense. And I highly doubt they’ve moved on from Reynolds.
They might not be actively pursuing a trade, but all 29 teams would trade for Reynolds in a heartbeat if the price were right. And as I pointed out earlier, there are ways to fit Reynolds into the lineup. The Mets were planning to move Correa to third. It’s certainly not a stretch to move a CF to LF, or a middle infielder-turned-center fielder back to the infield.
But of course, the Marlins don’t have to pursue this trade or any other. They can just sit on their 10 starting pitchers and hope that Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler power them to a wild card appearance.
That sounds like a great plan.
Bleday is terrible. Dude looks like he’s gonna wash out within 3yrs or so.
Did I see that right? He had a “good” year in AAA batting .228? That isn’t a typo? That earned an MLB promotion?
Yes, absolutely, when his OBP is .365 and slugging is .470
In this case BA matters. You can’t hit .225 in the minors and expect to be an impactful MLB regular.
Not at all true. Basically has no relevance what the average is as long as it’s at least .220. Not if BB and XBH are there
Ok. Find me an example of someone who had an average that low in the minors and was/is a MLB regular. If there is my bet is they were/are a defense first player which Bleday is not.
Winfield, maybe a catcher somewhere. Typically guys that hit .225 over parts of 3 seasons in the minors don’t even get a cup of coffee in the majors.
Ah I see. So had he struck out or grounded out 3 or 4 more times, it would have been unacceptable. Makes sense.
Those other numbers aren’t bad, especially given his low average, but lack of contact in the minors really doesn’t translate to success at the majors
.470 slg was not top 10 on his AAA team.
A’s cornering the market on dud prospects
The only way this trade makes sense from Oakland’s perspective is if Puk informed the team that he would not pitch out of the bullpen this year.
After losing a couple starters you would think Oakland would have given him the opportunity to start. I thought he had a better shot at starting in Oakland then he does in Miami.
JJ Bleday can build an at bat like an all star. He can take balls, work the count until he gets his pitch to hit. This pitch is then either fouled straight back or rolled over to second base.
The end of the shift will help his numbers a little, but without completely reworking his swing, he’ll never make it.
But eventually something clicks. That usually means it’s in the primitive stages of getting it together
I like this deal for Marlins. Puk has closer written all over him. They must also really believe in De La Cruz/Sanchez. Hope they are right.
de la Cruz and Sanchez have shown that they deserve the shot more than Bleday. And let’s not forget about Encarnacion (even thought they have given him a 1B glove too).
If given the chance Puk could be at the very least a “poor man’s” Josh Hader. Seems they sold really low on him
Marlins see another undervalued As arm.
Fantastic move by the Marlins here. They desperately needed another bullpen arm and Puk has lights out stuff when he’s on. He had a good showing last year and bullpen transitions sometimes clear up availability concerns so we’ll see. I suspect Sixto will be joining him in the pen as well.
That seems logical about Sixto. He hasn’t pitched in a couple of years so will need to build back up innings before thinking about starting.
Anyone want to join FB auction league??
fantasy.espn.com/baseball/league/join?leagueId=106…
Happy drafting! Steal Corey Seager at any cost
Seen Puk plenty, there is definitely big potential for untapped upside with him. At times he has wowed. Change of scenery might be perfect for him. Keeping an eye on it
Fascinating deal. Im surprised Miami would deal somebody with Bleday’s upside for a reliever. But at the same time, that reliever is really good with previous pedigree and Bleday is completely unproven.
even trade: both teams received a player whose name looks like a typo
The best take
The best take yet
Suddenly, the Giants selecting Hunter Bishop 6 picks later doesn’t seem so bad after all.
Seth Brown is gonna play RF.
I’m not so sure the NL East is gonna be just a three horse race. The marlins might have the best pitching staff overall. Especially if Perez is as good as advertised. A couple veterans have bounce back years. A few others simply play like last year and the bullpen holds up, this team could seriously give the Phillies, braves and Mets a run for their money
I don’t think they’ll make the playoffs, but they certainly won’t just rollover with that pitching staff. If they could somehow add a legit closer and one superstar to the lineup somewhere, then they would have a shot. Then again, they might already have that superstar if De La Cruz or Sanchez meet their potential
This is a good trade for both clubs. The Marlins just traded one of their key lefty set up guys in Bleir and Puk will fill that role. The Athletics needed another bat and they are much better at developing bats than arms over there. In contrast, the Marlins are better at developing arms. Bleday was arguably rushed out of necessity in Miami and that wasn’t good so he gets a fresh start. The A’s are trading high on Puk. Maybe the change of scenery will be good for both. Ironically, this trade happens between two of baseball’s most problematic orgs. Puk health-wise perhaps better suited for the bullpen than starting and A’s probably moved him out of concern for long term health.
The Marlins have really good pitching. They might want to get a solid SS to pick up the ball. They traded Rojas and really haven’t found a viable replacement. If they don’t it’s going to hurt their pitching. They improved their offense this off season but not good if you aren’t solid up the middle.
Nice swap of two very disappointing top 10 overall picks. Neither will probably ever fulfill what they were drafted for (top10 you hope for a #3 starter or an above average hitter) but still puk could be a valuable reliever and maybe bleday a solid 4th OFer or slightly below average regular.
The marlins are getting a usable reliever now and the As get a guy who could still be a usable or tradeable player in a year or so.
There is a chance bleday is only a 5th OFer or a quad A guy but better than just keeping puk and having a reliever who might get hurt again on a bad team. Decent trade for both teams even if most likely neither player will have a big impact
Athletics throwing and hoping anything sticks. It’ll be curious what crumbs shake out.
Ahhhhhhh. So much better.
A’s keep adding speed and lefties. Rule changes are gonna work in their favor