Following the Phillies postseason run in 2022 which shocked the baseball world as they fell just two wins short of a World Series championship, the expectations surrounding the team have changed dramatically. Philadelphia followed up on its surprise run with a busy offseason, landing Trea Turner on an 11-year deal while bolstering the pitching staff with multiyear deals for Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm. The club also bolstered its bench and bullpen with one-year deals and trades, adding Josh Harrison and Kody Clemens to the club’s bench options while adding Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto to the late-inning mix.
In addition to external additions, the club has been active in extending both players and personnel. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski, GM Sam Fuld, and relievers Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado have all been extended since the postseason concluded. The club has reportedly exchanged offers with ace right-hander Aaron Nola as well, indicating a desire from every corner of the Phillies organization to keep this group together for the foreseeable future. Despite this apparent desire, however, Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb report at The Athletic that longtime Phillie Rhys Hoskins may not be part of those plans, as the club and Hoskins have yet to begin extension talks.
Hoskins, 30 next month, is set to become a free agent following the 2023 season. The slugger came up through the minor leagues as a first baseman, but spent the early part of his major league career primarily playing left field in deference to Carlos Santana before returning to the cold corner following a trade that sent Santana to Seattle. Wherever he’s played the field throughout his career, however, Hoskins has always hit: in six seasons a big leaguer, Hoskins has never finished a campaign with a wRC+ below his 2019 figure of 112, or 12% better than league average.
For his career, Hoskins is a 125 wRC+ hitter with a slash line of .242/.353/.492 and 304 extra base hits in 667 games. While Hoskins strikes out at an elevated clip (25.1% in 2022), he more than makes up for that deficiency with his proclivity for drawing free passes. Hoskins boasts a 13.5% career walk rate and even as his walk rate has ticked downward in recent years, his 10.7% rate in 2022 still ranked in the 80th percentile of all qualified hitters, per Statcast.
As Rosenthal and Gelb note, the market for first basemen this past offseason would indicate that Hoskins could aim for a deal in the $20MM AAV range on the open market. That’s above what Josh Bell received from the Guardians but right in line with what Anthony Rizzo and Jose Abreu received from the Yankees and Astros, respectively. Bell is younger than Hoskins but lacks his track record of consistency and opted for a short term deal that would allow him to return to the open market following the 2023 season. Rizzo and Abreu, meanwhile, have stronger overall resumes to this point in their careers, but are several years older than Hoskins, meaning their current contracts are set to take them into their mid-to-late thirties.
While an AAV in the range of $20MM might be a reasonable estimate for Hoskins on the open market, it’s understandable why the Phillies may be hesitant to make such a commitment. After all, the club already features Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos as defensively-limited sluggers on high dollar contracts, and it’s possible that Bryce Harper, whose work in the outfield defensive metrics had largely soured on in recent years even before his Tommy John surgery last November, could be viewed similarly as he enters his thirties. With each of those sluggers locked up through at least 2025, it would hardly be a surprise if Dombrowski’s front office decided that the resources required to retain Hoskins would be better utilized elsewhere, such as in extending Nola.
Should Hoskins hit the market, he seems poised to be among the best bats of a 2023-24 free agent class that lacks much position playing star power outside of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani. Fellow corner slugger Teoscar Hernandez and Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman are among the other players headed towards the open market. That being said, barring a significant downturn in performance from Hoskins in 2023, he seems like a prime candidate to be tendered a Qualifying Offer by the Phillies in order to recoup some value should he sign elsewhere. As a team paying into the luxury tax, the Phillies would receive a 2024 draft pick after the fourth round as compensation for any qualified free agent who signs elsewhere in the coming offseason.
We’ve gone from extension talks to who does not have extension talks. Next: “who’s not dead.”
“He’s only mostly dead.”
But mostly dead is slightly alive.
“Go through his pockets and look for loose change.”
“As we all know, he said to blathe and to blathe means to bluff. They were probably paying cards and this guy cheated.”
Hoskins is a Boras client. He’s not signing an early extension. Rhys is hitting the free agent market this October…
Several Boras clients have signed pre-free agency extensions, some the year before such as Xander Bogaerts.
Hopkins is absolutely a fine hitter but is brutal as a first baseman.
And the move the left field by the previous regime was a disaster.
He is most definitely a dh and him and Boras will have to accept that fact.
I like Hoskins but he’s replaceable. Doesn’t really have much defensive value but can walk and hit homeruns. You know what to expect from him every year. Curious to see what his next contract looks like.
I wouldn’t say he’s replaceable. He puts up quality offensive stats that aren’t easy to find. He’s defense is awful. The Phillies already have too many sluggers who can’t play defense. So losing Hoskins is going to hurt their offense big time, but he just isn’t a good fit.
That’s it right there. THe Phillies, right now, have Schwarber, Harper, JTR, and Castellanos who can all play 1B at the same defenive (if not better) clip than Hoskins. I think that’s what makes him so “easy” to replace. IF he was a Eric Hosmer type on the defenisve side of the ball, then the argument changes completely.
Rhys seems like a nice guy and he’s been fun to watch. That bat slam will be right up there with “Mitchie Poo” and Rowands face first plant into the CF wall. Bottom line is that he is a Boras client and Boras will ask the moon in an overvaluation of Hoskins. Given his current fielding position and lck of defenisve availability, the Phillies would be better off spending that money in other areas.
I think the best option for the Phillies would be to hope he has a great season en route to a WS title, then offer him the QO and at that point, it’s a win-win for both parties, whether he accepts or declines.
I hope that I misread your comment. Please don’t tell me that you are holding Hosmer up as an example of a good defensive 1B. And if you are, please check out his numbers again. He had a good rep but one the numbers never agreed with.
Hosmer was better earlier in his career, but that speaks more to how bad Hoskins fielding is than how good Hosmer was considered.
Rhys is the 3rd best 1b in our division…
The 2 better than him are perennial All Stars.
They kinda need him gone, one of Castellanos, Schwarber or Harper will end up playing 1st, one at DH and one in the field. Sign an active corner fielder who has an okay bat but can run the field in the off-season. Hoskins at Boras prices and holdout will end up not being worth it.
Yeah, not my fave player. I’d let him walk.
Holdout? What holdout? Baseball players almost never hold out.
And we don’t need to have them! Let him go he’s a BUM
Yeah, who needs a good hitter like Hoskins?!?!? /s
Bum? Yeah, nah.
I’m just not sure he’s worth the money it’s going to take to keep him around. I know that’s not a revelation or anything.
Hoskins will get paid for sure next season. But because the FA market is thin next year and he has a decent consistent track record, he’ll get more and good for him.
The Phillies will not sign him to an extension, They can only give out so many contracts.
Hopefully Schwarber moves to 1st, Castellanos to LF and Harper back in right for ’24…
The DH spot will take care of itself.
And hoping for Rojas to develop as well
Not real sure you want a bad first baseman and 2 bad corner OF. One of those 3 will be a DH only.
Considering they made the WS with exactly that? Not concerned.
They were also one game away from missing the playoffs.
You should be. Crap defense isn’t a recipe for success. Congrats on the participation trophy.
Agreed, a full season of Marsh in CF will do those guys some good as well.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the DH spot. Hall is expected to get the bulk @rhp, but if he struggles, it may become a rotation of the 3, plus Realmuto (who hates to DH?).
As for my statement about the DH spot in ’24, my statement was meant to say that it’ll probably be a rotating spot more often than not…
No, me either. Especially with Bohm getting better defensively and Turner now at SS. Marsh is a quality defender and will be with the team for a full year now. Let’s also not forget Sosa in the late innings.
Defense has improved. It’s nto the greatest, but as you stated, they went to the WS with this.
@JoeBrady Sure, but post July, they were one of the better teams in baseball. The first half of the season was a disaster. Injuries, no CF (Herrera), no SS (Didi), a terrible manager. The team improved and solidified their roster late in the season. The 2022 Phillies were much better than their W/L record, and most people knew that.
“decent consistent track record” significantly understates his hitting skills.
As a Phillies fan, when you watch him go 0 for 3 weeks after going everything for 2 weeks…..you’d understand. Was not knocking him.
You’re exactly right. When he’s ON he’s unstoppable. When he’s OFF he’s toxic.
I wish he would strike out swinging more often – he goes down looking way too often.
He is on a pace to hit more HRs than Scott Rolen.
Despite first base being juxtaposed to third base, it’s not the cold corner.
That is the best news I have heard all day. Get him out of there as soon as possible. Thank you
The new rules may have an effect on what sort of contracts these DH-on-the-field type guys can get now that there’s a little more of a premium on defense and speed. Would be very interesting to see how many teams have to face the notion that they used the shift to hide a ton of guys that are minus defenders to DH only in positions they may now be hurting their teams in the big picture by playing.
2024: Sosa to 3rd and Bohm to 1st.
I like Rhys but he’s what he is – a defensive liability with a good but inconsistent bat. He’d have to sign something incredibly club-friendly if he’s a Phillie next season.
Bohn needs a lot more power to be a 1B or 3B for that matter.
You can start a sentence with the word meanwhile, I promise you it’s ok.
Rhys and Matt Olson had 2nd half rookie seasons that were pretty impressive.