There were few bigger stories of last offseason than Xander Bogaerts’ free agency. A career-long member of the Red Sox, he opted out of the final three years and $60MM on his deal with Boston to test the open market. That came six months after Spring Training extension talks had gone nowhere, setting the stage for Bogaerts to join the Padres on a stunning 11-year, $280MM contract at the Winter Meetings.
Bogaerts recently addressed the end of his time in Boston with Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He expressed disappointment with the Red Sox’s initial extension proposal last spring. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported at the time that Boston had offered four years and $90MM — one year and $30MM in new money — for Bogaerts to preemptively forego his opt-out chance. It was a surprisingly light offer that turned out to be well below Bogaerts’ open market value, one with which the All-Star shortstop wasn’t satisfied.
“The one in spring training was a little tough. I think it’s well-documented what the offer was,” Bogaerts told Cotillo. “That was a tough pill to swallow at that time because you’re hearing about extension talks so you’re looking forward to seeing what they’re thinking and what they’re offering. That was a tough one.”
The sides halted talks during the season but reengaged at the end of the year. Boston brass maintained at the outset of the offseason that keeping Bogaerts was their top priority. They indeed moved quite a bit from their extension offer, reportedly putting forth a proposal in the six-year, $160MM range during the winter. That was at least in the realm of general expectations at the start of the offseason — MLBTR predicted Bogaerts at seven years and $189MM at the start of the winter — but came up well shy of San Diego’s winning bid. Free agent prices for star talent exploded last winter and it seemed clear by the Winter Meetings that Bogaerts would surpass $200MM, though few would’ve foreseen a team nearing $300MM.
“Way off,” Bogaerts said of Boston’s final offer. “They felt the way they felt. They did what they did. I have no bad feelings for them. I’ve seen multiple great players come through that organization who I’ve played with and they’re not there anymore. Some guys went from pretty untradeable to tradeable. That was eye-opening. It makes you see things differently, for sure.”
It indeed seems clear the Red Sox weren’t as bullish on Bogaerts’ long-term projection as the Padres were. Boston had an in-house replacement to step in at shortstop after signing Trevor Story to a $140MM guarantee two offseasons ago. Those plans were scuttled, at least early in 2023, when it was revealed Story required an internal brace procedure to address a ligament issue in his throwing elbow. That pushed Enrique Hernández in from center field to man shortstop, though Adam Duvall’s wrist fracture could force Hernández back into center field more frequently.
Boston made another huge investment in the left side of the infield later in the winter. The Sox agreed to a $313.5MM extension with third baseman Rafael Devers in January. Devers is four years younger than Bogaerts and has been an even better hitter than the star shortstop. It’s not hard to see why the Boston front office considered Devers the safer long-term investment, even as Bogaerts plays the more demanding position and assuaged some concern about his glove with solid defensive marks last year.
Such an embarrassing first offer from Boston. They should be ashamed of themselves. They could have locked Xander up for a reasonable amount of money after the 2021 season, no where close to the $280M he got this offseason, but Boston played this one very poorly. I’m happy for Xander that earned his ‘bag’.
all in the suit that you wear
I don’t believe Xander and Boras would settle for a reasonable amount of money without testing free agency to see if unreasonable money was available, which it was. He signed one team friendly deal. I doubt he was signing another. I can’t see Boras going along with that.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – Boras was Xander’s agent when Dombrowski signed him to the team friendly first extension.
Xander would have taken $160M prior to last season, that’s a fact.
Even if Bloom felt the way you did, that Xander wanted to test free agency, it still doesn’t excuse the lowball offer. Either make a legit offer, or none at all.
Xander once again showed his class in the interview. He was treated like crap by Bloom, but clearly has no grudge about it.
He got more than 3 times the insulting offer Bloom first made to him, and the Story contract will likely be the top reason why Bloom gets fired.
Xander won, Bloom lost, karma strikes yet again.
all in the suit that you wear
Fever: I don’t see how you can say that is a fact. Also, I think we need to see how things go before we decide who made good and bad decisions. I doubt Xander was signing another team friendly deal. He didn’t even finish the first one.
Fever Pitch Guy
suit – $20M more than Story for a player who is far better than Story? That my friend is another team friendly deal. Xander is not Mookie, he wasn’t looking to set any records or get every last dollar.
And it wasn’t just a “coincidence” that Bloom finally acquiesced by offering EXACTLY the same $160M last fall. Too little too late of course, you can’t expect any player to want to stay after they’ve been insulted the way Xander was.
all in the suit that you wear
Fever: I don’t see how you can say that is a fact.
I re-read the article. I don’t see that “fact” in there.
As I’ve said before, IMO, the RS had no intention of signing him. But that is no excuse for insulting him with that initial offer. They could’ve easily have led off with $140M/6, with no downside. He either rejects it, and Mayer is still the heir-apparent. Or he accepts and we let Devers walk or trade.
Fire Bloom and Cora NOW! Worst red sox team since 1985
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe – I’ve provided the sources for the $160M offer multiple times in the past, I’m not gonna keep putting in the effort when you keep pretending I never did.
I’m glad you finally acknowledge the $90M offer, and also that you agree it was insulting. It was Lester all over again.
Interesting…two camps one happy for Xander after the Sox botched the negotiations and the others bitter and, get this, blaming Xander for getting paid. What nerve, like they wouldn’t want to be paid what they think their worth. Hypocrites.
I don’t see anyone criticizing him for wanting to get paid. Reading for agenda? If I’m an owner I don’t want that end of the deal, but X is a good guy. Good for him. I don’t think anyone disagrees with that.
God forbid Devers play a day game after a night game! Bleier brought in to protect a lead, great call Cora! You’ll have plenty of time to grow your beard when you are unemployed jacka$$!
Fever Pitch Guy
Boxcore – I completely agree! Funny how those so-called “fans” expect players to “prove their loyalty” by accepting far less than what they are worth, but have no demands for management to show loyalty toward their homegrown franchise players.
Unreasonable is actually spelled “SanDiego”…and yes, Xander will be “booed” non-stop from age 37-41…and he will be compared to Eric Homer and Wil Myers and San Diego will still never have won a World Series….lol
Good luck with that $280,000,000 until age 41, lol
He knew he was a goner the moment they drafted Marcelo Mayer.
Anyone that thinks any 18 year old draftee would make an All Star think their job is in jeopardy is insane.
Fever Pitch Guy
Pads – Of course you are 100% right. Even if Mayer lives up to the hype, Xander could have changed positions.
The goner moment was when Bloom signed Story for $140M. It was clear Xander wasn’t in their longterm plans anymore.
all in the suit that you wear
Fever: Agreed about Story.
Yeah, the real reason was when the Red Sox decided to sign Story to that awful contract
“I have no bad feelings for them… [proceeds to talk about how the team traded away Jon Lester snd Mookie Betts]” As a Red Sox fan, I’m angry that they didn’t make a legitimate extension offer to Xander last spring. That was insulting, and it’s like the team never learns (Lester). If they had offered him 6 years 160 mil last spring, Bogaerts might still be in Boston under an affordable deal for the team. But they didn’t. And in the process they lost ANOTHER homegrown talent who knew how to play and win in Boston. I don’t blame them for not paying what San Diego paid – no shade towards Xander, but that was insane. But they should be ashamed of themselves for how they handled extension talks coming into the 2022 season.
Jsay speaks my mind.
The reporter asked him about it.
Lol….hate to tell you and everyone else this but Boston never had the intention of signing this fella long term. First proposal should have told you that. I don’t know why they didn’t want him around for a long time but they just didn’t. They knew he’d leave if they made him a low ball offer.
hate to tell you and everyone else this but Boston never had the intention of signing this fella long term.
Right or wrong, this was always going to be the case. It was always going to be Bogaerts or Devers. I could make a case for or against both players, but we were never going to sign both.
We would have and Devers, and Bogey in a long-term prospect but Bloom can’t give up the favourite business how to be dug on trashes and sign injuring players.
I try always to be objective, if Chaim did a good transaction, I will praise, if he did a bad transaction I to scold.
The apologists of Bloom only praise him without depending on that he does.
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe – You’re wrong and there’s an easy way to prove it.
Bloom signed Devers after giving the $140M to Story.
If he had instead offered Xander just $20M more and passed on Story, then Xander would have stayed and BOTH him and Devers would be extended.
Facts are he was grossly overpaid and the Padres were willing to overpay to get him. Maybe Xander should be upset that he was not even the Padres first choice and was their back up plan to Trea Turner. Enough with this crap….. the Red Sox correctly understand that in 5 years his contract will be a disaster and just think…. the Padres have 6 more years after that to go along with 6 years of a declining Machado to go with it as well.
I read this dung all 2022 year that Bogaerts will fall down, his defence bad.
Take off shroud from eyes.
Bogaerts SS 2023 – 25.4 mil. AAV San Diego Padres.
Boston Red Sox 2023
Story SS 2023 – 23.33 mil. AAV – 60 DL
Mondesi SS 2023 – 3 mil. AAV – 60 DL
Kike SS 2023 – 10 mil. AAV – ( 5 Errors in 11 games, all life dreamed to play on a SS ).
Let us think that better – to have in the command of star SS, player, that professionally goes near the business, physically steady and hardly more than 25 millions in a year, potential HOF or player cost for 23 million, that can’t play the SS, always injuring SS and player, that all life dreamed to play the SS, that cost 2023 Red Sox in 36 million.
I disbelieve that it takes place and there are pseudofans that talk :
” Thank God that we from him rid, he will stink in 5, we have Mayer – future star and HOF “.
Bogie2x….Bogaerts may have a few good years with San Diego, but if you think he will be good at the end of that contract then I have a bag poop that smells really good up for sale, I’ll even give it to at a discounted price because I know how smart you would be to bargain for it against all of the competition wanting it.
Fever Pitch Guy
Cooper – I think you might be the only person who doesn’t understand the structure of his contract. Even if he is horrible the final couple years, it doesn’t matter. The contract length was stretched out specifically to reduce the AAV.
Is it not obvious that the Red Sox did not want Bogaerts back? The Boston media has reported (truthfully) about what a poor fielder he is and how he needs to move off SS! Do you think his fielding will get better as he ages…?
Marcelo Meyer, the Red Sox top prospect, is on the way, and Trevor Story is in house. I loved Bogaerts while he was here, but it is time to move on. Pedro Martinez was great, but was not very good in his 4 years with the Mets after he left, Garciaparra, Bay,…. There are not many I can say I wish the Red Sox had kept except maybe Lester and Adrian Beltre. (Mookie was NEVER going to re-sign, so the Red Sox missed one year (2020 which ended up getting them Marcelo Meyer)…
The Red Sox’ offer was a low-ball offer but the contract from the Padres was a desperate overpay by a desperate team that hasn’t won a single World Series and has no real chance in sight in the foreseeable future.
Did they overpay? yeah probably but you can’t say they have no chance in winning a world series for the foreseeable future lol. They made it to the NLCS last year and are gaining Xander and Tatis this year. There’s never a guarantee, but they defiantly have a shot at winning it all in the next few years.
@Ace. Did Seidler steal your girlfriend in 6th grade?
The Ace guy is just a troll wanting replies. Papa Pete broke out the checkbook and I love it
The Padres paid LESS per season than what Bogaerts was projected to make. We know from other offseason articles that Bogaerts had other 9 year deals on the table for higher AAV than the $25.9 million the Padres paid him. The Padres stretched it out 2 more years, gave him slightly more overall money others offered, but did it in a way that works better for a small market team financially.
Pads Fans, What you say is true. My only thought is most teams prefer shorter term/higher AAV deals for a reason. The extra years are solely for lux tax purposes. Should Bogaerts be productive longer than most teams seem to anticipate, then it will be a great deal for the Pads. Not so much if his production is more in line with those shorter offers.
Tadz – What you say is true BUT Bogey is an all-star because he has talent and the desire to be great. Elite players usually don’t tail off quickly unless they have a bad body type like Devers, a family situation that completely distracts them like Sandberg or an injury they can’t recover from.
Injuries can happen to anyone so with a good track record on injuries it seems logical that Bogey will play effectively into his late 30s. Devers, on the other hand, like Miggy and other big body types is likely to see a big drop off by 34 so Bogey will stay elite longer than Devers despite being older. That speaks volumes to the magnitude of Bloom’s mistakes.
Betts was the best long term signing that didn’t happen, Bogey was the second best long term signing that didn’t happen and Devers as a one dimensional, bad body type player was the worst star to sign for a long period of time. He will be the next Panda, Hanley or Crawford from an albatross perspective hurting the Red Sox in about 4 years.
Red Sox fans will rue the day they signed Devers long-term. He was the perfect example of a 3 year deal with opt outs for both sides. It would have incented him to not put on weight, to work out hard in the off season and to learn the game of baseball so his bad choices at fielding, running and throwing don’t hurt the team as much.
Bloom’s damage to the Red Sox empire is extensive and will continue long beyond his years in Boston.
KD17, You’re making a lot of assumptions that may or may not be true. Devers is 4 years younger than Bogaerts. The Sandoval that the Red Sox got did not define his career. Sandoval was a contributor to a couple of WS titles, and was series’ MVP in one. If the Sox get from Devers what the Giants got from Sandoval, they’ll be happy. But every player is different, and comps can’t always be relied on.
You may be right that Bogaerts will be effective into his late 30’s. Teams expect a couple of non-productive seasons at the end of long-term deals. Other teams’ 9 year offers indicates they expect about 7 productive seasons. Fangraphs’ age curve study shows a relatively slow decline throughout a players early and mid 30’s. But in the late 30’s, the curve typically drops precipitously.
That said, worse case scenario (ignoring injuries), is Bogaerts’ production falling off significantly after 7 seasons. If so, SD will still have him under contract for 4 more years.
Best case scenario is the Padres get a productive year from Bogaerts in his age 39 season. That would be huge for SD, but IMO is also a gamble. I’m not a Red Sox fan, but to me this is not a clear fail on the Sox’ FO. Time will tell.
Fever Pitch Guy
KD – Very true about Xander, he will likely stay in great shape into his 40’s.
How long do you think Cora and Bloom have left? They are looking so very bad right now, with only a little pitching help (Bello and maybe Paxton) possibly on the way. Nobody in the minors right now looks like they will be able to come up and have an impact this season. Duvall and Story could very well miss the remainder of the season, or at the very least not be productive when they return. Wrist injuries tend to linger, and arm injuries for shortstops can’t be rushed … assuming Story will play SS, which is a big assumption right now.
Tadz – There are a handful of great SSs in baseball.
If SD has one of the 6 to 8 elite SS then 22 to 24 teams don’t have one. IF SD pays $25MM a year for an elite SS they are saving roughly $10MM a year considering the going price is $35MM per year in 2023. Remember the time value of money and the fact that Bogey is building surplus over the first several years of the deal and possibly as much as 7 years. He is 37 in 2030. That’s an age where he could still be playing above a $25MM cost. So in the end it’s not that likely he will not justify his contract. Injury and a sudden drop off could happen but that’s a risk worth taking considering the alternative. They could be playing a SS hitting .086 and batting him lead off.
If Mayer is for real and becomes an all-star quality player like Bogey by 2026 or 2027 then they would have had depth and a contract that was trade worthy. Paying Bogey a fair price was a win-win no matter how you cut it.
Say Kiki three times and you’ll have to agree!!
Not anymore Tad. Teams have realized that longer deals with lower AAV gives them a better chance to win now. It may cost them a couple of down years at the end of the deal, but $25 million is not debilitating to their budget. Especially not in ten years when All Star shortstops will cost $40 million AAV or more.
The $30 million AAV over 8-9 years that other teams were offering Bogaerts would have kept the Padres from signing other great players NOW.
Obviously everyone thought that since Bogaerts value is based on his bat, not his defense that the majority of his value would hold up through 7-8 years. That is why this site predicted a 7 year deal and why he had multiple offers of 8-9 years.
KD17, I won’t argue that SD got one of the top SSs playing today. But that is a short term assessment. These deals need to be looked at in the long view. Having a top SS for 2023, is great, and they should have one for the next several years,
But, although he is a top hitting SS, he’s not a top fielding one. I’m surprised, (and not), that Kim isn’t playing SS. Kim is a far better fielder, but the Padres can’t pay a top SS price for a guy, and then play him at 2B. And as he ages is his fielding going to fall off even more?
But IMO, SD will not view the deal as a success if they get only 7 years of decent production. Especially if he can’t hold down the SS position. I doubt they’ll think paying a 37 year-old, so-so hitting guy, playing 2B $25M a year for the next 4 years, is a good place to be.
If Devers is Sandoval 2.0 then the Red Sox are up a creek. Sandoval’s career was essentially over after his age 32 season From his age 28 through his age 30 seasons he didn’t get above a 75 OPS+.
Before you try to say, “but Devers is a better hitter” or “but neither was good defensively”, here are some facts.
Through their age 25 seasons, one had a 128 OPS= and the other a 124 OPS+. Which was which?
Through their age 25 seasons, one had a 5 DRS overall while the other was the worst defensive 3B in MLB with a -44 DRS. Which was which?
If you said Panda was both the better hitter and defensive 3B, you win the prize.
At a $25 million AAV, if the Padres get any production at all in his Bogaerts’ 39 and 40 seasons it will already be a huge win for them. At the current $9+ million cost per point of WAR for FA, the Padres need just 31 WAR from Bogaerts to break even on this contract.
He has averaged 5.7 WAR the last 3 full seasons (2019, 2021, 2022). After what is shaping up to be a monster season in 2023, Bogaerts’ age 30 season, factor in the 7% decline in production each year for his age 31-35 seasons (2024-2028) that the data for superstar players show is coming and you have roughly 29 WAR give or take a point. The Padres then need about 2 WAR over the next FIVE seasons to break even.
I AM a Padres fan, and reality tells me this is a total fail on the Red Sox part. I said so last spring when I read the POS offer they made him then.
Pads Fans, Well I have to respectfully disagree. I don’t think teams see the extra years, thus lowering the tax hit, as a better option. They’re adding the extra years out of necessity. They know they have offer long-term deals for the top FAs, and only add the years to make it easier to operate financially down the road. If given the option I think teams would still choose the shorter term/higher AAV if they could.
Why wouldn’t teams be willing to pay more per year for the productive years so they could avoid situations like the Tigers with Cabrera, the Angels with multiple players, Hamilton, Pujols, Rendon, the Yankees with Stanton, the Cubs with Heyward, or the Mariners/Mets with Cano, just to name a few?
They don’t really want to, but are forced into adding the extra years. It’s a battle between the players wanting long term security vs. the teams wanting to pay for the most productive years.
I agree with your assessment re Bogaerts’ bat, and his value holding for 7, maybe 8 years. But for that reason I see the 11 years as a gamble. It may pay off, but I can’t blame the Red Sox FO for not taking it.
Tad, are you freaking kidding me? Bogaerts value is not based on his defense. With -9 DRS over the last 3 full seasons MLB has played, Bogaerts has a total of 17.2 WAR with 5.9 WAR last season.
In other words with his defense pulling his WAR down, he still averaged 5.7 WAR. If he moves to 2B, his defensive play will not drag his WAR down more than it already has at SS. He will be a top hitting 2B, too. His value will still be just as high.
If the Padres get a 5.7 WAR season in 2023 and then see the typical 7% decline for superstar level players from age 31-35 they will have broken even on the contract at that point. We are not talking about “decent production”. We are talking about 6 seasons of 4+ WAR, or All Star caliber production, with a couple more that are above league average.
Anything he does from 36-38 while his performance is likely to be declining 11-13% per season will be gravy. If he doesn’t play in his age 39 and 40 seasons the Padres will have already reaped enough surplus value to cover it.
If the Padres win the WS while he is in the Brown and Gold, they will consider his deal a raving success.
Than you are not paying attention OR listening to what GM’s and owners are saying. You may disagree with me, but its what THEY are saying and doing that I am listening to and paying attention to.
Pads Fans, Are you freaking kidding me? Where did I even suggest that Bogaerts’ value was based on anything but his bat? I wrote that one of the things I didn’t like about the Bogaerts deal was that he’s being paid as a SS, but isn’t a particularly good one. He has a -18 OAA for the last 3 seasons..
But he’s playing SS and the much better fielder Kim is at 2B, because Bogaerts is being paid a SS salary.. And 7-8 years from now when what defensive skills he has now have eroded, even with the escalation in salaries, I don’t think SD is going to be happy paying Bogaerts $25M a year to play 2B, or 3B for the next 4 years.
Pads Fans, That’s your interpretation of what FOs are doing. I interpret events differently. If you have a link that quotes some baseball execs actually saying that they prefer longer-term deals over shorter ones, even with a higher AAV, please provide one. But I don’t think you’ll be able to.
To be fan of Padres right now very keenly.
Bogaerts you won’t let down, he is a punter and will get older as good wine.
Fever Pitch Guy
tad – The ONLY time teams prefer shorter term high AAV contracts is when the team currently has lots of payroll flexibility and the player is older and likely to decline within a couple years. In that case you don’t want them taking up a roster spot during the final bad years.
So instead of giving a Verlander $90M for his Age 40-43 seasons, you give him $87M for his Age 40-41 seasons.
Fever Pitch Guy, “The ONLY time teams prefer shorter term high AAV contracts is when the team currently has lots of payroll flexibility…”
So in other words, teams prefer shorter term/high AAV deals in the best case scenario. Needing to add years because your team lacks payroll flexibility in not much of a recommendation. Sounds to me like all things being equal teams would opt for the shorter deals.
Pads Fan – I love when I read an intelligent response like yours. You understand contracts and the marketplace and that’s not a common knowledge on the website.
Bogearts wasn’t falling off like some said. Bogaerts stays in shape and should last more years than Devers thanks to his body type, work ethic and higher baseball iq. The Padres extended him two extra years at the same price they would have offered for 9 and Bogey liked it because it kept in the game longer. They understood how to do a win-win instead of a Boston home town discount like the owners have done for decades.
I don’t know if the owners will ever hire a guy like DD who has the experience to tell them what they need to do to win. They seem happy letting Bloom flounder because they make nearly the same amount of profits even with him going over the CAP.
Maybe a bottom five finish in 2023 will wake them up but I doubt it. They seem committed to mediocrity after caring about winning for 15 years.
It is effectively a $35M * 8 contract.
It is effectively an 11 year $25.9 MM AAV contract.
The RS made a choice to keep Devers and let bogart walk, sometimes us fans will never be privy to specific details as to why.
Fever Pitch Guy
lefty – Bloom didn’t want to keep Xander because he didn’t evaluate him properly, the same reason why Bloom has gotten rid of so many other players that turned out to be great with other teams.
Bloom is clueless at evaluating and developing talent, I have a hard time believing he will still be around next year.
Pedro Martinez’s Mango Tree
Unfortunately I don’t see Bloom being let go regardless of how they finish this year. They’re clearly not contenders, they’re trying to look like they’re competing while stocking the minors. We’re stuck with Bloom at least until Mayer reaches the majors
because he didn’t evaluate him properly,
He chose Devers because he is 4 years younger.
lefty – That way nobody sues the Red Sox for mismanagement of the organization. You are so right. Racism forced Mookie and Price out the door. Not sure what forced Bogie out the door and a long=term relationship with the Dominican Republic Baseball Programs allowed Devers to not just butcher 3B for over half a decade but got him over $5MM over market value for 11 years!!!!
It’s the owners money but the fans will see last place for years thanks to all the owners bad choices starting with hiring Bloom and firing DD.
They also offered Trea Turner (who they idiotically traded) $330 million, yet he decided to take the Phillies’ offer of $300 million instead. Desperate organization that gave up a lot of its future in exchange for Juan Effin’ So-so. Mike Rizzo, who traded So-so when he was at his all-time worst yet got a return for him as though So-so was performing at his all-time best, is still laughing his ass off about that trade- and Mike is still chuckling about the Trea Turner trade. Then Juan So-so went to San Diego and not only didn’t improve, but performed even worse hahaha.
Ace, a commentor that truly deserves to be muted.
He clearly has no hard feelings despite bitching and whining about the lack of competitive offer from the Red Sox. All in all, everyone got what they wanted. Sox got some prime years of Bogey on the cheap and drafted a stud of a replacement, and Bogey got the platform and lineup to sell himself on his next contract. I would love to see the Red Sox FO come out in 5 years and talk about the bullet they dodged signing this guy to an 11 year contract. His ceiling will decline to replacement level or worse before half that contract is done. Anyone that thinks otherwise is blind, he should keep his mouth shut and be thankful he got a reactionary overpay.
Red Sox get to be cheap and lose, and Bogaerts gets to win and get paid.
If you are counting on Mayer replacing Bogaerts I have some bad news for you. He is 20 and struggling so far this season in A+ ball. IF he makes it to the majors, it won’t be before 2025. Top prospects have a 20% chance of ever being league average in the majors and have a 1 in 20 shot at ever producing a single 4.0 WAR season. Those are the odds you are facing.
Bogaerts has averaged better than 4.0 in his 8 full seasons and 5.7 in his last 3 full seasons. You know what you are getting from him. An All Star.
Because his value is not based on him playing exceptional defense, it will take 7+ years before he declines to league average WAR and only his last 2 seasons of this deal are in danger of being at replacement level.
So sad to hear a jilted Red Sox fan whine like you are.
Pads Fan – Outstanding answer!!! Excellent documentation of what a joke it is to think Mayer will be anything close to Bogey in the future. You might as well buy a lotto ticket at those odds.
Mayer has not performed like a fourth pick in the draft that is going to jump to the majors and be a stud like recent players including Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis or Acuna. Even Wander Franco hasn’t set the world on fire yet and he’s been up three years. So if Mayer gets to the majors by 2025 he might approach where Bogey is in 2023 by 2028.
Great trade off. Why win now when you can win much, much later!!
Enjoy it while you can bud! Don’t take KD as validation, trolls can’t validate.
soxfan1 – Why are you taking a cheap shot at me? If you have an issue please speak your mind instead of hiding behind an anonymous id and taking cheap shots. What’s your issue?
Also, FYI, the act of trolling is what you did. Not supporting the decisions of Red Sox ownership, GM and Manager IS NOT an act of trolling. It’s freedom of speech and highly acceptable in this type of forum.
So step up to the plate big shot and tell me what’s your problem that you have to take cheap shots?
KD, you are a wannabe Mike Felger and the lack of objectivity makes your opinion hard to deal with. I here is no glass half full for you, it’s only glass half empty.
WHY IS BOGAERTS STILL TALKING ABOUT THIS? Isn’t he a Padre and that’s IT? Thanks for the great years with the Red Sox aka your ex-wife. Move on. The Sox did not offer him eleven years because he will suck for seven of those years.
The reporter asked him about it. It was reasonable for him to answer the questions.
Because a Red Sox reporter ASKED him. Are you really that dense? Or still hurting in the behind? Move on.
Get over it. Bogaerts will do what he has always done and that is hit and hit well for the next 7+ years. He will get to win instead of looking up from the basement at the rest of the AL East.
HE COULD HAVE SAID “It’S DONE AND I AM A PADRE.” It is actually possible to not take a reporter’s bait you nimrod.
Its an interview. Bogaerts is a nice guy so he answered the questions from a reporter he did multiple interviews with over the years.
So the answers to my questions to you are yes and yes.
Stop whining about an interview and move on.
baseballteam – So the guy that says Bogaerts will suck for 7 of those years is not the nimrod? I’m confused. It sure seems to me that the nimrod is the guy who doesn’t comprehend why the deal for SD was a good one.
Pads and bcjd seem to be the “not nimrods” in this scenario.
I have no problem wit him talking about it. He’s probably a little annoyed and deservedly so.
If you have watched Devers play 3B, you know that he is not the safer bet for a long term deal. He has been the worst defensive 3B in the AL over his career so far. What he is a safe bet to be is a DH for most of that contract.
With Story out for a long stretch, at least 3 guys on that team that are best suited as a DH in Devers, Yoshida, and Turner and 2 prospects that they are counting on the play in the field also being best suited to being a DH in Casas and Dalbec, the Red Sox defense looks to be really bad.
No team that wants to contend counts on prospects making the team and the Red Sox are no different. Fans hoping and praying that Mayer will be their savior at SS has the same odds as every other prospect. About 20% chance he will eventually be league average and a 1 in 20 shot at putting up one 4.0 WAR season. Right now he is struggling to start the season in A+ ball and might be in the majors in 2025 or 2026 if all goes well.
Hmm – Devers is 4 years younger than Bogaerts, not exactly a mystery what the Red Sox were thinking. Both are signed thru 2033 season, during which Devers will be 36 (likely moved over to 1B or DH full time) and Bogaerts will be 40. While there are indeed productive players after the age of 35, the data on the aging curve suggests Bogaerts value will decline in the coming years and the entire back half of the contract will be an albatross on the team’s payroll. Love Bogaerts as a player and hope he beats the odds, but that is not the likely outcome here. The Red Sox are better off signing their younger players to extensions after 1-2 years in the majors (Mayer, Bello, Casas) and keep investing in the farm. Once the young core is in place, Red Sox can surround them with FA signings.
Actually, the data shows that Bogaerts will be an All Star caliber player, 4.0+ WAR, for at least 4 more seasons after 2023 with season 6 of the contract being just a shade under 4.0 WAR. Then a better than league average player through age 37 or 38.
The data shows that the decline after their age 30 season, this season is Bogaerts’ age 30 season, is 7%. From 36-38 its 11-13% (It used to be steeper in the NL because of no DH). After that its pretty steep and few players make it.
If I had to bet on the incredibly fit Bogaerts or the fat Devers maintaining their production longer from today, my money is on the fit guy.
At $25 million AAV, the contract will never be an albatross.
Bogaerts will be an All Star caliber player, 4.0+ WAR, for at least 4 more seasons after 2023
Like I said, I could’ve made a case to keep either Bogaerts or Devers, but FG projects Bogaerts for 12.7 WAR for 23-25. They project Devers for 15.5. That’s significant enough, but the difference will likely only widen after that.
I’m not crazy about Devers, but I’d bet serious money his WAR/$$$ will be higher than Bogaerts at the end of the contract.
FG uses UZR in WAR calculations. Enough said.
Trottman – Your data is wrong!! BODY TYPE BODY TYPE BODY TYPE
Miggy is a far surperior baseball player to Devers and fell off the table at 34. Will Devers last that long? I doubt it.
Bogey is four years older. At 38, he will be closer to his current level than Devers will be at 34 to his current level. NOW subtract out DEFENSE since either Devers will still be hurting Boston with his defense or he will finally play DH where he should have started. Bogey, in the meantime, will still be a league average or better defender and his key skill of hand/eye coordination will still be intact. Bogey doesn’t need to homer over 25 times to help his team win, Devers does since he can’t play defense and doesn’t hit for average.
By 2027 Bogey will clearly be the better deal based on their physical, mental and cultural differences.
Mayer only in A+ what signing you talk about, funnily.
And he is a not arson this level in a past season.
At the best he will attain MLB in 2025.
On two years we need adequate SS.
You won’t see prospects drafted of Bloom before 2024.
If only York won’t tear double AA and triple AAA.
Come on Xander. You left. It was your decision. Stop whining about it and move on.
Geez- Bogey, a true professional in every way,, sat down with a scheduled interview with a sports spok provides honest responses and your busting his b – – – s?
Maybe pro wrestiling, roller derby & many MMA interviews are a more stimulating & appropriate choice for some……
Fever Pitch Guy
Franklin – It’s what the Bloom shills do, they trash former Red Sox franchise players because they think it makes Bloom’s decisions look better.
Xander and Mookie, two of the greatest players and classiest PEOPLE that have ever worn a Red Sox uniform. And they get trashed for insisting on getting paid fairly. The Bloom suckups are so very, very sad.
Franklin – way to call a tool a tool!! hahaha Thank you.
I see this has devolved into how great the padres are on paper..with xander and the rest…fact remains they havnt won anything..ever..period…no points for second place boys
Fever Pitch Guy
Pool – Quite often second place gets you in the postseason. Just sayin’ ….
I was just pointing out that great on paper means nothing unless you win…
Last season 3rd place in the NL East got the team to the WS.
A playoff run means more money for the team which means the ability to sign better players. 2 of the last 3 seasons the Padres have been in the playoffs so they are not just a great team on paper.
Did they win?
They went. What did your favorite team do?
Pool – So you are saying they have as many rings as Tampa Bay? Good point.
They have triple the payroll now. If the money is well spent, then their odds of a ring are going to far exceed Tampa Bay’s.
TB can’t get by the Yankees and SD in the past couldn’t get by the Dodgers. Very similar situations. One team chose to spend in hopes of passing their heavy spending opponents and the other chose the cheap route.
With the Dodgers not resigning Turner so they can try to steal Ohtani this is the year the Padres have a door open to winning it all. I doubt they can beat the Astros but they can win the NL pennant and Western Division. Then in a year when Ohtani gets lured to be a Dodger all the money spent by SD may become irrelevant once again. They have a one year window to win and I like their chances on paper and on the field. Key injuries need to be avoided.
Initial lowball extension offers seem to be the norm. The Yankees’ first offer to Judge was. It didn’t seem to be at the time, but turned out to be much lower than what he got. The Padres’ first offer to Machado was definitely a lowball offer. If the Red Sox had re-signed Bogaerts nobody would be talking about a lowball offer.
I can understand some Red Sox fans being upset with the decision to let Bogaerts walk, but it will take a number of seasons to know for sure which team made out best. I can see it going either way. It was a judgement call on the Sox’s FO. The article said it best; “…the Red Sox weren’t as bullish on Bogaerts’ long-term projection as the Padres were.”
Fever Pitch Guy
tad – You’re right, “it didn’t seem to be at the time” because it was BEFORE Judge had one of the greatest seasons of all time.
A lowball offer is based on the player’s value at the time of the offer, not a year from then.
So you’re going to nit-pick the offer to Judge, but what about SD’s lowball offer to Machado? You just ignore that?
Judge’s isn’t the only lowball offer. You can find multiple lowball offers from one team alone; the Braves. The Pirates initial offer to Reynolds was a low-ball offer, and now the only hold up is the inclusion of an opt-out.
Machado was worth more at the time of SD’s offer, not a year later. Reynolds was worth more at the time, not a year later. I stand by my assertion that the initial extension offer being a low-ball one is SOP throughout MLB.
The Padres offer to Machado was PRIOR to this season. His opt out wold not have been until AFTER this season. We will not know if he would have been worth more prior to the season or after the season until he actually PLAYS the 2023 season.
Since both the Padres and Machado have both said the Padres did not make the 5/110 extension offer that Heyman reported, we don’t know exactly how much more he got than the Padres offered.
What we do know is that they ripped up his contract that would have paid him $30 million AAV for the next 6 seasons (2023-2028) and gave him an 11 year deal that will pay him $31.8 million AAV for 2023-2033. A tiny raise in AAV when you consider his production over the previous 4 seasons in SD.
Your assertion is not SOP anywhere other than Boston and Pittsburgh.
Pads Fans, Whether the offer was prior to this season or not is irrelevant. Extensions can happen with multiple years of team control, or like with the Giants and Hunter Pence, only days before free-agency.
How can you say it matters that the initial, offer happened prior to the season, when the much better second offer also happened prior to the season?
Machado had a huge year in 2022, so what @fever pitch was saying, that an offer is based on value that year, not what he does the next year, applies particularly with Machado. In other words, Machado’s value was high, and the first offer did not approach that value.
MLBTR wrote prior to the extension, that even with a 2023 season not as good as 2022, that he would still be expected to receive offers that would top the remainder of his contract. That means, the only way he wasn’t going to opt out, short of an extension, is if he got injured.
Opting out he would have been on the open market, and as history shows, FAs are at a premium, and their value is what any team will offer the most. So if you’re trying to argue that the first extension offer to Machado was not a low-ball offer, I’d say you couldn’t be more wrong. Especially after seeing the offer he did agree to, which again, also happened prior to this season.
No its not. Stop being an idiot.
The Padres increased Machado’s AAV by $1 million after 4 seasons of exceptional play. It cost them NOTHING. Inflation in salaries across MLB was 11.4% and he got a 3.33% increase in pay.
Give us all a break.
If you need to resort to name calling it brings your point of view into question. If you continue to do so, any further discussion is at an end.
The increase in the AAV is a red herring. By writing that, you’re suggesting I’m questioning whether Machado is worth the money. I’m not. what they’ll be paying him has nothing to do with my original point; that Machado was lowballed in the first offer from the Padres.
The first extension offer, which he rejected, was for an additional 5 years and $105M. If you don’t think that was a lowball offer, who you seem to think is the idiot here is misdirected.
What they later agreed to was 11 years and $350M dollars. You’re talking only AAV, while totally ignoring the additional years. length of any contract is always an important factor in any deal.
But regardless, that is all beside the point. The fact remains SD lowballed Machado in their initial extension offer. To continue to argue that it wasn’t indicates your stance is that of a biased homer.
Tadz – So, if you were a gambling man who will stay productive longer
Bogey or Judge? They both have different skills but which one will dramatically drop off first?
My money is on Judge. Why? Body type once again. Judge’s size makes him both an injury risk and a drop off risk. Not many players have been as big as Judge and stayed highly competitive into their late 30s. Bogey, however, has a lasting body type for playing into his late 30s.
The Red Sox weren’t bullish on Bogaerts like the Padres were? Seriously.
Why would a team be bullish on a home grown all star who at age 20 helped them win a ring. Is the issue that SD was over zealous or was it Boston was extremely negative? I think SD paid a fair price so that’s not over zealous.
Boston is owned by people who have always asked for home tome discounts despite clearing over $300MM in profits annually. Boston has a GM who has no clue how to spend money for a quality product since he’s been dumpster diving his entire career.
The article was simply saying Boston didn’t want Bogey like they should have and EVERYONE should be able to agree on that statement.
That statement also holds true for Mookie. So why dump two players with much longer projected careers that are gold glove or above league average on defense and top flight hitters but invest in a one-dimensional selfish player from the DR?
Diversity issues don’t go away because you hire an unqualified bi-lingual manager or you make a female minority an executive in the organization. Diversity comes from treating people comparably no matter what their background, culture or country of origin.
Mookie did the most for the organization on the field and was trying to make a difference off the field as well and he got throw out like trash. Bogey helped win two rings and he got pushed out the door too. The team hired a serial cheater for manager despite no experience. The team hired a TB executive without due diligence that would have proven him to be the guy claiming he was behind their success when he wasn’t. That guy is still making them successful and TB got rid of it’s garbage. That’s why they are the better organization today and continue to flourish while the executive we stole continues to flounder.
Have you looked at the roster? Have you looked at the decisions that have been made by ownership, Bloom and Cora the last three years? We don’t need to wait and see if the decisions were bad. Our 2 games over .500 since DD left versus 104 games over .500 while he was in Boston is enough evidence to know that the Bogey decision was bad, as was the Mookie decision, the Benny decision, the Vazquez decision, the Schwarber decision and the Renfroe decision.
Mistakes everywhere. Waiting to evaluate is a waste of time. Failure is observable immediately. Feb 2020 Boston lost it’s glory and has been a failing franchise ever since. The failing isn’t even close to stopping because the failures are still making the decisions. It’s now a question of how far down the hole is ownership willing to let Bloom and Cora take us.
KD17, You’ve kind of gotten deep in the weeds a bit. You’re talking about Mookie, and other transactions made by the Sox’ FO and that has nothing to do with what I’ve written. IMO Mookie was a mistake, but we don’t know the whole story there. But every FO makes mistakes.
But regardless, that’s all stuff that has nothing to do with my point, which is entirely about Bogaerts, and the decision of the Sox’ FO to not offer what the Padres’ FO did.
I only cited Judge as an example of low-ball offers in initial extension talks as being SOP in MLB. The one thing about Judge though is he has a lot more value in terms of marketing, than Bogaerts does, so financially his may be the better deal. But that’s beside the point.
I disagree that Boston did not want Bogaerts. At least not in those absolute terms. I think they wanted him on terms that reflected their perceived value. If they did not want him, it’s that they did not want him at 11/$280M, which is understandable IMO.
Not being a Red Sox fan, and not following them closely, my point was only that not signing a 30 year old Bogaerts, a great hitter, but subpar fielder, who may wind up at 2B or 3B, to an 11 year deal is completely defensible. And only in retrospect, years down the road, will we know what the right move was.
tad2 – I liked your answers so I was curious about other opinions. Sorry didn’t mean to derail the conversation. When I run into someone with interesting opinions I like to explore further.
For me Bogey was an extension of Mookie. Philosophically, ownership likes to teach people lessons. Mookie got tossed for having opinions on their racism but I don’t believe they were going to sign him without a home town discount racism or not. Same for Bogey.
It’s not right for the fans but it’s the owner’s team. They made the mistake multiple times and haven’t learned from it because signing Devers to a ridiculous contract was NOT a learning experience for them, it had everything to do with the on going courting of the DR amateur programs and building a DR pipeline to Boston. Why they want that is beyond me. Great players come from all over so to lose talent to keep the least talented guy because he’s a DR Academy guy is short sighted from a business perspective.
One small correction for you. Bogey is an above average fielder. I’m guessing you are using the completely bogus metrics not real stats when you say that. Everyone knows there are huge problems with metric evaluation of fielding. Bogaerts can only field the balls he gets to and he does that better than almost every shortstop in baseball. If you want to suggest other players are better with lower fielding percentages then we can agree to disagree.
Fielding will always be binary. If two people are exactly the same at fielding percentage then taking the one with more range is acceptable but if one fields better but has a shorter range you have to be able to define the components of why he has less range. In Bogey’s case it’s because he played next to a tool at 3B who ate deeply into his range by going after balls he had no business going after.
Like I said, a player can only make plays on the balls he gets to so whether it’s he can’t run 5 feet farther than another guy or he has a moron fielding next to him, the evaluation has to be on his success rate on the balls he plays. It’s binary and will always be binary. Take the successful fielder not the hypothetically better player. Baseball is measured in facts not hypothetical estimates made by people who probably never played the game.
KD17, I couldn’t disagree more about Bogaerts’ glove, and fielding stats in general. Basically the advanced defensive metrics have been developed because the traditional stats, errors and fielding%, are useless. I admit that the advanced metrics are far from perfect, but they’re still far better than errors, and fielding%.
With those outdated stats, guys with less range were statistically better than fielders with a larger range. In 1988, 2 of the SSs with the most errors were Barry Larkin, and Ozzie Smith.
How good or bad, the adjacent fielder is irrelevant. DRS is calculated on whether a ball is fielded that is hit towards the fielder. OAA is calculated as the cumulative effect of all individual plays a fielder has been credited or debited with, making it a range-based metric of fielding skill that accounts for the number of plays made and the difficulty of them. For example, a fielder who catches a 25% Out Probability play gets +.75; one who fails to make the play gets -.25.
You’re right when you say “…the evaluation has to be on his success rate on the balls he plays”, and that is exactly what DRS and OAA try to quantify.
If Bogaerts was trying to make up for a poor fielder next to him, it still has no impact, and makes me wonder how smart a fielder Bogaert is, that he would sacrifice what’s needed at SS to help out 3B.
Again the advanced metrics are far from perfect, and can certainly be questioned when they don’t agree. But in Bogaerts’ case they are in solid agreement. -49 DRS, and -35 OAA for his career. Admittedly his fielding has improved, so he’s not as completely dreadful as those stats would indicate. But, 2019-2022, his DRS is -13, and his OAA is -16. So basically he isn’t epically bad, just bad. Ha-Seong Kim, who should be playing SS, has 19 DRS and 7 OAA.
I wrote this post in December 2022 after Bogaerts signed a contract with San Diego and laid out it on MLB Trade Rumors he with small modification but a main parcel remains.
Errors of Bloom that brought to the cascade problems with lineup.
Bloom needed to be just saved Renfroe, prolong Schwarber, to revise a contract Bogie , to recondition BP 2-3 good hands, to sign ace before a season 2022.
Even exceeding a limit in 2022, we could be under a lid in 2023.
Bogie wanted just payment, Bloom or guidance of Red Sox spoiled attitudes toward home-bred players.
San Diego of fussed with the suggestion in 280 million.
I don’t reprobate Bloom for that he didn’t interrupt this suggestion, I reprobate Bloom for that he ignored the contract of Bogaerts when it was necessary.
Xander passed to the club that ready now to fight for World Series.
With the exchange of Renfroe and ignoring of contract with Bogie, Bloom created the cascade of problems in outfield in 2022-2023 and SS in 2023.
Undoubtedly in 2023 I wanted to see such composition :
1.K.Schwarber DH $20 m AAV
2.X.Bogaerts SS $25 m AAV
3.A.Verdugo LF $6.3 m AAV
4.R.Devers 3B $17.5 m AAV
5.H.Renfroe RF $11 m AAV
6.T.Casas 1B MIN.
7.C.Vazquez C $10 m AAV
8.C.Arroyo 2B $ 2 m AAV
9.K.Hernandez CF $ 10 m AAV
Bench: R.McGuire C $ 1.2 m AAV; B.Dalbec INF MIN; R.Tapia OF $2 m AAV; R.Refsnyder OF $1.2 m AAV;
40-Man:J.Duran OF MIN; C.Rafaela CF MIN; E.Valdez INF MIN; ; W.Abreu MIN; C.Wong C/2B MIN; C.Murphy P MIN; B.Walter MIN; F.German P MIN; T.Ward P MIN; J.Groome P MIN; N.Song P MIN.
1. ? $27 m AAV
2.C.Sale $25.6 m AAV
3.G.Whitlock $4.7 m AAV
4.N.Pivetta $5.35 m AAV
5 T.Houck MIN
Closer – K.Jansen $16 m AAV
8-inn. – Schreiber MIN;
7-inn. – C.Martin $6.75 m AAV
6 -inn. – J.Rodriguez $2 m AAV; Bleier $3 m AAV; Z.Kelly MIN.
MidSt – J.Winckowski MIN; J.Paxton $4 m AAV;
$215.6 m + $ 4.9 m M.Barnes = $220.5 m LUX.TAX
It would leave 12.5 million for additions in term.
T.Ward, , J.Groome, F.German, N.Song would be protected from a rule 5.
I think that this group of players would fight for the first place in a division, our main prospects still in safety.
Bloom chose other way and accomplished errors.
If a season will be failure, Chaim will go away rather all.
It is therefore needed to cross fingers to hope that we will have a scenario of 2021.
Bogie – I like what you wrote. Your team needs a replacement for the ridiculously over estimated Kiki Hernandez. To me, he’s not worth $1MM a year and you could get 10 guys for his $10MM that are all better than him. He’s a massive waste of money like Paxton.
Chaim has screwed the pooch. After 12 games the team is 5=7 and 1 game behind the 74 win pace I suggested based on their schedule. They caught Baltimore before they were ready to play good baseball, got swept by a weak Pittsburgh team, then swept a bad Detroit team. They walked into a buzz saw in TB where they were predicted to win 1 of 4. They need to win on Thursday for that to happen or they fall two games behind the 74 win pace with the Trout/Ohtani led Angels and the improving Twins coming to town for 7 games. The projection is 4-3 thanks to the games being in Boston but as of today, that seems generous. If they win less than 4 they will fall even farther behind the 74 win pace.
Think about this…. TB is 7 games in front of them after 12 games and the Yankees and Blue Jays are 3 games ahead. With the tough stretch in the second half of April they could easily be over 10 games back of 3 AL East teams by May 1. Normally, that shouldn’t scare anyone because slow starts sometimes happen but May is much harder than April from a strength of schedule standpoint so making up games on the 74 win season during May seems unlikely. 20 games out by June is a real possibility and 15 is almost a near certainty at this point. Something enormous would need to happen for this trend NOT to continue.
That’s why it makes sense to clean house now so the new GM has time during the season to make adjustments for 2024 and beyond.
I don’t blame the Red Sox for not matching the Padres offer, but they could have signed him for much less with a more realistic offer earlier in the process. The Padres may not believe he’ll age that well into his late 30s, but the deal is more about the front-end of the contract for a team in a win-now mode. The length allows them to lower the AAV.
LordD99, We don’t really know if the Red Sox could have signed him earlier in the process. We don’t know what the parties were saying to each other. It’s entirely possible that, with Boras as his agent, the Bogaerts camp was saying, unless you blow us away with a massive offer we want to see what kind of offers we can get on the open marketplace.
After all, Bogaerts had previously signed a team-friendly deal, and maybe felt like he needed to be compensated like other FA SSs on any new contract. Which made matching or not, SD’s offer their only options.
The Red Sox might have tried to sign him to a much more realistic deal, made a realistic offer, and weren’t able to sign him. Bogaerts could have been asking for the moon to bypass free-agency. I won’t argue that the Sox’ FO hasn’t made mistakes. I just think their decision with Bogaerts is defensible.
If Bogaerts maintains the required work ethic through late 30’s to 40 then he is a mental beast. Good luck to him. Time will tell.
Boras did his keeping teams in the dark thing and had the Padres making sure they “asserted” themselves to the max. They whiffed on Turner and Judge so left nothing to chance. Fair enough. I thought the “Boston was making a late push” lie was weak, but that’s how Boras rolls.
I would like to know if the Padres were aware of the annual “routine” cortisone injection in the wrist. I wonder if that was a post signing surprise or if Dr Boras eased any concerns that might have raised up front.
Teams are aware of medical history prior to signing contracts. MLB gives them that info once they file the agreement and prior to physicals.
Not true the Red Sox weren’t aware of pomeranzs medical history when the Padres traded him
That was in 2016. The Red Sox were not aware that Pomeranz was taking ibuprofen for minor inflammation. They were aware of all medical tests and treatments. Because of the system that Padres CEO Mike Dee put in place in 2014 that didn’t report any conditions or treatments other than those the team doctors had a part in, MLB changed the rules.
It was a big part of why Dee was fired. Before you try to say that Preller was suspended for it, Preller got a month off during a month of the year when practically nothing is done by GM’s. When he returned from his suspension he was given ALL of Mike Dee’s baseball operations responsibilities and Dee was fired.
ALL information is disclosed today. Everything. Even over the counter medications.
Story will be 35 at the end of his contract and who knows if he even finishes the deal in Boston or elsewhere, Bogaerts will be 41 at the end of his deal and who knows if he’ll still be a Padre by then. As much as i hated to see Xander go, paying him into his 40’s is probably not the best use of future resources
The mistake that Bloom and Boston made was after the 2021 season in all likelihood he could have been had on a long term contract short of 200 million it’s not a fact but it is likely. Unfortunately for Boston San Diego went after Judge and Turner and missed so they weren’t letting Bogey get away and gave him an offer that not even Boras was going to be available. I don’t blame Bloom and Boston for not matching that offer I blame them for not being more engaged after the 2021 season.
Bruin1012 – Boston lacked creativity in their offerings. If you play fantasy sports and you want to deal most guys think what’s best for them and make ridiculous offers that don’t help both teams. That’s why most are rejected. Boston did the same thing.
Bogey had better numbers than guys making $35MM a year. He knew that, his agent knew that and Boston knew that yet they low-balled him and tried to shame him publicly just like Mookie. Whoever made that decision, doesn’t belong in baseball.
Bogey knew Boston has Mayer and that he’s the likely eventual SS of the future and Bogey also knew that he’s not likely to be competitive for the position until 2025. At that point Boston would need to decide what’s best for the team, Mayer or Bogey at SS. Why not offer a deal for 3 years (2023 to 2025) for $100MM with a mutual opt out for both sides? Bogey makes the money he wants, Boston doesn’t have to suffer with Kiki and if Bogey fails he’s gone after 3 years. If Bogey is highly successful then he goes FA or they make another deal. Both sides win. That’s what SD did. They offered a win-win deal just like LAD did for Mookie.
This isn’t quantum physics it’s a sophisticated board game where value is maximized by win-win situations.
Quantum Physics is infinitely simpler than baseball.
Bloom screwed up 2 times with Bogaerts. Once with that insulting one year offer and the other when he had a window that was reserved with just Bogaerts and he did not. Bogaerts wanted to stay but Bloom tried to “Lowball” him. San Diego came in and over payed for him. He is gone and good for him in getting the contract he received.
Anyone very impressed with Yoshida ? I know it is early but I am not impressed with his hitting at all. Wasn’t this supposed to be his strong point ? Oh well. I was not happy with that contract Yoshida received. We swept a bad Detroit team and now we are playing a good major league club like Tampa and it shows
Al, I agree that this was a gross misjudgment by Bloom and ownership on Bogey. I believe he did want to stay and would have if a reasonable offer was made especially after 2021. As for Yoshida I will wait a while to make a judgement there. I wouldn’t judge any offense against what it does against this Tampa staff they are probably the best staff in baseball top to bottom and I would take McClanahan and when healthy Glasnow as the best one two punch in baseball as well as two other great probably #2’s on most teams in Rasmussen and Springs as well as a lights out bullpen. They are going to make a lot of offenses look bad there pitching is the best in baseball.
Not sure where you get that they “over payed”. The Padres are paying $25.9 million AAV for Bogaerts. That means they need an average of 2.8 WAR to break even on the deal. He has averaged 5.7 WAR the last 3 full seasons. Last season was 5.9 WAR. The only negative from a fan standpoint is that they signed him for 11 years knowing that the last couple will be bad. At just $25.9 million, I doubt they will care what years 10 and 11 look like since the front end of the deal will pay for a couple of bad years several times over.
I have been impressed with Yoshida’s ability to not strike out. Just 3 strike outs vs 6 walks so far. He has an incredibly good eye at the plate. He simply does not chase bad pitches.
What I have not been impressed by is his 86.8 mph exit velocity, 38% hard hit ball rate, and his worm killing -7.4 degree launch angle His total inability to make solid contact with a breaking ball has to be disconcerting for Red Sox fans and coaches. baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=b…
When are you dopes going to get it…… The Red Sox are not a mess because of Bloom, they are a mess because collectively the organization from top to bottom starting with Henry, Warner, Sam Kennedy, then Bloom and his assistant GM and so on. The fact that they rehired Cora after all the crap he put them through should have been a signal that the decision making process within the organization is flawed.
Cooperdooper7 – Outstanding commentary. Couldn’t agree more.
The Padres. LOL!
I’m so glad we know how this is going to turn out already. I was thinking of waiting awhile and seeing how things stand, but now I know the tea leaf readers have spoken and it must be true. Honestly, there are loads of ways to predict future performance but that is all you get, predictions. So if you want to bicker about something that hasn’t happened yet, go ahead.
I honestly hoped the Red Sox would keep Xander, I liked him. But decades of being a Red Sox fan have taught me to expect anything, good and bad. For every Jim Rice, there’s a Fred Lynn. For every Jason Varitek, there’s a Carlton Fisk. The list of beloved players who DIDN’T stay is always much longer than the list of players who did.
Speaking of Dustin Pedroia, name a Red Sox home grown second baseman who didn’t have his career cut short by injuries. Mike Andrews, Doug Griffin, Marty Barrett, Jody Reed, etc. Shortstops? Rico moved to third, Valentin as well, Burleson, Hoffman, Nomar, etc. Baseball life is short, enjoy it while you can.
Honestly if owners are handing out $300 million dollare contracts, do you think there’s ANY loyalty whatsoever. If you want to ruin something, throw many at it. The end.
Team just was swept by Tampa. Sale has trouble getting out of the first inning unscathed. We cannot beat good teams and had a hard time with the Pirates. The team is already 7 games back behind Baltimore in last place in the division just two weeks into the season. It would not surprise me if they are 14 games out by the end of May. I know Duvall got hurt but our starting pitching isn’t good. This is the worst scenario for Bloom.
It’s a 4 game series doofus and dalbecs idiotic error at shortstop cost 3 runs in the first but of all the dumb Cora moves having yu bunt down 2 in the 9th was the dumbest move of the year
My mistake a- hole I was peeved they lost 3 in a row and wasted a good performance from Pivetta Monday nite. I am not too confident tomorrow sorry I know people like Dalbac but he cannot hit and his decry is shaky. I still cannot believe he hit over 20 homeruns in 2021. I see this team being in a big hole by May with the fans and Media screaming for Bloom and Cora’s head.
It’s *you’re. If you’re going to call someone out on mistakes, while calling them a fu**face, at least do it right.
Fever Pitch Guy
Fire – I agree with you about the namecalling, but you really shouldn’t be teaching anyone proper spelling. I’ll let someone else explain it to you.
What’s misspelled there?
Why is Yu Chang even on this team….. why is he bunting in the 9th inning with the lead runner on down 2….. why is he even hitting in that situation to begin with? Why is he in any starting line up?
Also…. you think the Red Sox Management would have had a clue that the stolen base would be so much more part of the game with the new rules… yet they have really nobody in their linup that can run….. while Duran is in the minors and David Hamiliton who showed enough in spring training defensively and has great speed (70 SB’s last year), could EASILY fill the roll that Yu Chang is in currently in… add to it the fact that Chang was not even in spring training with this club but made the team, is mind bloggling.
They want him to break the all time record for most plate appearances without reaching base safely
Chang in the starting lineup again what a effing embarrassment!
There is your sweep 9-3 loss today, last place 8 games back. This is the worst case scenario for Bloom this year. This team will be 14 games back by mid May. When we start playing the better teams and loose the media and fans are going to want Bloom’s head on a stake. Maybe we can get a Major League GM after this.
Al34 – To be fair, we need to let them play on Thursday before it’s an official sweep but your points are all valid.
74 win projection and after 12 games we are 1 game behind the pace and if they lose to TB on Thursday they will be 2 games behind a 74 win pace after just 13 games.
Also, the schedule gets hard with very few days off and then when they finish April and are 10 to 20 games back, May is much more difficult from a strength of schedule standpoint.
Ownership needs to do something dramatic or the barbarians will be at their gates calling for their heads!!! Embarrassment is such a force that the owners will be pushed to make a move once the MLB broadcast crew across all their shows starts poking fun at Boston on every TV series. It should be there now but there are several that are loyal to Bloom and Cora but once they realize their futures are short they will abandon ship and lead the charge at ownership to do something to fix the Red Sox. 10 to 20 games back on May 1 will do the trick so the future is nearly inevitable at this point.
We need to focus on available successful experienced BIG MARKET GMs to replace Bloom. I’d love to hear suggestions from everyone. Maybe we can package them and ship them to ownership!!
I agree with you. Bloom is in way over his head. He goes on the cheap side with contracts and it shows with his production. Sometimes it works out but most of the time no. We need a big time GM not a budget guy who brings small market thinking to a major baseball city like Boston. Tampa does not draw fans. I think another last place finish which we are in our way to will force Henry’s hand this year. Did you really think Kluber was going to be a major piece along with Paxton who has not pitched in two years. Come on. This team needed better starting pitching this year.
Pitching is not the problem it’s horrible defense with a bunch of players playing out of position and a lineup that includes 5 guys who have no business batting in the majors not to mention an idiot for a manager
So I’m watching the game today and I see TB loses Springs and I think to myself this could be the day. Hopefully, Cora doesn’t do anything stupid.
3-1 lead Kluber pitching well gets in a bind with 2 outs after Yandy Diaz rockets a ball to Verdugo who makes a nice catch but a run scores to make it 3-2. Brandon Lowe is coming up after striking out twice to Kluber. Naturally, Cora takes out Kluber for Bleier and the boneheads announcing the game say good move lefty on lefty. One pitch later the game is tied and subsequently a massive rally happens against Bleier. He give up hits and a HBP and POOF TB is leading 8-3 after trailing when Kluber was pulled.
Who should this brilliant move be blamed on? To me, this is yet another perfect example of a game a manager dictates the outcome with bad choices. Kluber handled B Lowe twice with Ks yet got pulled because of a match-up? That’s bad managing. CORA has done this almost every game since he arrived. And for the person who said I was crazy to suggest a manager can create 12 losses in a season, what do you think now? Cora is so incredibly bad that 12 seems conservative to me when you count pitching changes, batting Kiki first etc. etc. etc.
Even if the team comes back and wins this is a perfect example of why Cora belongs with some Minor League, Foreign League or Little League team as their bench coach not manager. He has no baseball!!
There is nothing that guarantees a MLB manager knows more about baseball than any contributor on this website!!! Cora proves that daily.
If Bleier doesn’t get Lowe out (which he didn’t) then he has to face Arozarena and Franco after it….. more great forward thinking by Cora.
Yu Chang is batting .000 after another stellar 0-3….. He has started 5 games now… I believe they have lost all 5…. How long will it take for these morons to figure out that he doesn’t belong on a Major League Roster, let alone in the starting line up.
Cora is the devil a 2-time convicted cheater who is clueless
The team is unwatchable. The roster is anemic. What a blooming fool is Bloom. Can the brass grow a pair, eat crow, and send his snake oil to some other club looking to compete on the cheap? This club is an embarrassment.
Remember the tools bragging about the offense after the opening series they are morons Devers is the only professional hitter on the team look at Xander and JD numbers compared to hernandez and JT its time to fire bloom!
Remove – You beat me to that comparison. Nice job!! You can NOT remove all-stars the qualify of Mookie, Bogey, JD, Benny and replace them with Verdugo, Kiki, Yoshida and Justin Turner and NOT think there is going to be a massive drop off in hitting.
Kluber did his job today by keeping them in the game. Cora cost them the win. Sure it may have been a matter of time before Cora made a different pitching substitution mistake but Kluber was on his way to taking the them to Schreiber in the 7th. If they want to beat good teams the SP must get to Schreiber, then Martin then Jansen for them to win. Sure on any given day one of the other relievers MIGHT do well but their bread and butter in the bull pen is the big three owning the 7th to 9th innings.
Cora isn’t bright enough to figure that out. I don’t know how many games you have to observe Cora before you realize he’s not a manager but I’ve been complaining since April 2018 when he sat Mookie in the third week of the season because it was on his schedule. The team got rained out the day before and had an open day later in the week but he still sat his best player because of a schedule. When asked he said that’s how Hinch did it in Houston.
Can he think for himself? NOPE. Does he understand his job? NOPE is he honest? NOPE So what does ownership and Bloom see in him other than his bilingual skills? He mumbles to the press and for some reason they don’t question his mumblings. Is that really enough reason to keep a guy who makes several mistakes daily?
2 games behind the projected 74 win season after 13 games!!! DET, KC and OAK are the only teams worse than BOS in the AL after just 13 games and that’s only because they got to sweep DET for 3 wins. Now it’s LAA and MIN for 7 at home. Both teams are leading their divisions. 2 and 5 would make them 7 and 13 in their first 20 games. That’s a 35% winning percentage. That’s good for a top 10 pick in the 2024 draft and possibly a top 5!! Again under Bloom’s direction!!
Can we please see two pink slips on Friday Morning!!!
Fever Pitch Guy
KD – You were so right about this year’s team, you called it!!
And they are not even a 5-8 team right now. I don’t count their 2nd game of the season as a ‘win” because of that ridiculous 9th inning drop of an easy fly ball that led to the Duvall walkoff. So really they are a 4-9 team, completely mismanaged and lacking in proven talent.
JD’s OPS is up to .881 and guess what Turner’s is? Just .698!!!
Xander’s OPS is 1.042 and he’s played in all 14 games, Cora would have rested him at least twice already!!
6 of the starters tonight batting less than .190 this is the worst team in my lifetime
Fever Pitch Guy
You used a too little selection in comparing of Turner to Martinez.
I will do it in a greater selection.
J.Turner 2023 (DH/1B) – $10.85mil. or $15 mil.
17 G; 60 AB (73 AP); 16 H; 4 Double; 1HR; 9 Walks (12.5%); 8 SO (11.1%); 1SB; .267 AVG; .384OBP!!!; .767 Ops; 111 Ops+
Last 7 Games : .391 AVG; 1133 Ops!!!
JD Martinez 2023 (DH) – $10mil.
17 G; 65 AB (72AP); 15 H; 7 Double; 2 Triple; 1HR; 3 Walks! (4.4%!); 24 SO! (33.8%!!!); .231 AVG; .278 OBP!!!;
.724 Ops; 100 Ops+
Last 7 Games : .148 AVG; .463 Ops!!!
As I talked as early as December the last year, Martinez is not a severe loss for Red Sox.
He already won’t be a player 2018-2019, for me large doubts, that he will be able to touch the numbers of 2021, if you look at him, as on the player of those years, then wait disappointment.
Turner such, as I expected, he had begun to be heated in games against Tampa and brought in the deposit against Angels.
Cora does again mental errors when plants on the bench of the two best players of Turner and Verdugo when every victory is important.
The loss of Bogaerts is very felt here, he was a leader in Boston and became a leader in San Diego ( here I agree with you ).
I would change Yoshida on Bogaerts right now.
It’s funny. I ‘m watching the TOR/TB game tonight and TOR looks better than TB. They have a scarier batting order, they play defense better and they run the bases better. TOR is winning after beating up Rasmussen who has looked very tough against weak opponents. Berrios has shut down the TB offense which was not expected. If TOR is better than TB then we’ll see TB come back to the pack as they play better teams. I still think NY and TOR are the cream of the crop and I will be curious as Rutschman keeps improving whether BAL can contend with TB for the 3rd spot in the AL East.
With Glasnow out, Springs gone for 2 months and Rasmussen getting hit around by a good hitting team, I think TB will struggle versus good teams. As always, the schedule dictates the record of each team. TB is undefeated because they won at home vs a bad DET team, 3 on the road vs a bad WAS team, 3 at home versus a bad OAK team and 4 at home versus a bad BOS team. This is their first test of the season and they look very beatable by good teams. The bad news is they next play a weak CIN team and then a weak CWS team before playing the ASTROS for 3. They could be 23 – 6 by the end of the month because after HOU they have 4 more vs CWS who are struggling.
Like Boston, TB starts with a very favorable schedule. The only difference is they knocked it out of the park versus weak teams and Boston didn’t.
Fever Pitch Guy
KD – Fantastic post, I agree that TB is a bit overrated and if the Red Sox had played even half decent they’d have split the 4-game series. Certainly they would have won the Sale game if Daubach hadn’t been playing SS, and as for the first game how many times does Pivetta have to lose 1-0 in Tampa because of Cora’s awful managing?? It was the third consecutive year he’s lost 1-0 in The Trop!!!
Today’s CORA screw-up. – WITH A 5 – 3 lead going into the 8th after Houck and Winch did a great job keeping them in the game Cora didn’t go to Martin he chose Schreiber for the 8th. The first batter singled, the next struck out, the next guy singled, the next guy struck out and then the top of the order came up and he left Schreiber rather than going to Martin. Ward scalded a ball directly to the 2B so catastrophie avoided. The ball gets through and it’s a tie game with Martin still on the bench. CORA was lucky not good with his choices.
Fever Pitch Guy
KD – As usual I agree 100%, if not for the 4 unearned runs the Sox would have lost again.
And I don’t care how well Ref has hit lefties in the past, he should NOT be batting third especially when there’s RHP coming out of the bullpen. I think Devers should bat third the majority of the time.