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Xander Bogaerts

Padres Notes: Bogaerts, Odor, Tatis

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Padres manager Bob Melvin provided an update on the injury situations of second baseman Rougned Odor and shortstop Xander Bogaerts after last night’s game against the Cubs. As noted by Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union Tribune, Melvin said that both Odor, who’s dealing with a left groin strain, and Bogaerts, who has struggled with wrist soreness throughout the season, will be assessed today, with Melvin admitting that there is “probably the potential of” a roster move to accommodate their ailing middle infield duo sometime today.

Melvin’s comments come after MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell noted earlier in the day that the Padres are hopeful Odor can avoid going on the injured list. After signing a minor league deal with the Padres this offseason and managing to break camp with the club, Odor has enjoyed a start to the season that, if maintained, would make the 2023 campaign his best since his age-22 season with the Rangers back in 2016. In 99 trips to the plate with the Padres this season, Odor has slashed .216/.303/.420, good for a 101 wRC+ that’s a massive jump from the 78 wRC+ figure he posted across the 2019-2022 campaigns.

Odor’s rebound at the plate has come through a considerable improvement in place discipline, as the lefty has posted a strikeout rate of just 20.2%, a steep drop from the 27.8% rate Odor punched out over the past four seasons. He’s paired the reduced strikeouts with a 10.1% walk rate that would be the best of his career if he can maintain it over the full season.

Bogaerts, meanwhile, commented on his wrist troubles to reporters, with Cassavell relaying that he’ll likely be out of the lineup today, if not longer, though he hopes to avoid a stint on the IL. Melvin confirmed that his shortstop would likely have today off, as Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union Tribune notes that the manager says they’ll see how Bogaerts responds to a day off before making a decision regarding a potential IL trip. As noted by The Athletic’s Dennis Lin, Bogaerts notes that this is the longest he’s played through wrist discomfort, citing the absence of third baseman Manny Machado as the reason he felt the need to try and push through the ailment.

With Odor and Bogaerts both at risk of missing time, the Padres will likely need to reconfigure their infield picture aside from Machado, who is entrenched at third base. Ha-Seong Kim has experience at both second base and shortstop, while Brandon Dixon has mostly played first base for the Padres this season but has experience at the keystone as well. Jake Cronenworth can play all three positions, while both Alfonso Rivas and Matt Carpenter could factor in at first base as well if necessary.

One solution the Padres seem unlikely to go with is returning Fernando Tatis Jr. to the infield. A shortstop for the majority of his career, Tatis has moved to the outfield full time in 2023, appearing exclusively in right field so far this season. That being said, more positional flexibility could still be in Tatis’s future, as noted by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune. Acee elaborates that with Jose Azocar optioned to Triple-A, the Padres lack a proper back-up option in center field behind Trent Grisham.

Tatis, of course, previously expressed a desire to play center field earlier this season, and Acee relays that Melvin appears open to the idea, saying that “He plays pretty good right field for us right now… But if we needed to do something or if something happened in-game or we wanted to give Grish another day off, (Tatis) has been taking fly balls in center field.”

West Notes: Urias, deGrom, Bogaerts

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Dodgers lefty Julio Urias was expected to throw a bullpen session off the mound for the first time since going on the injured list with a hamstring strain last week, but the 26-year-old lefty felt some soreness after working out yesterday and threw off flat ground instead, as noted by The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya. Ardaya notes that the planned bullpen session has been moved to Tuesday, and that the next step afterwards would be to face live hitters.

Urias’s setback opens the door for young right-hander Bobby Miller to make another start after the 24-year-old top prospect threw five innings of one-run ball against a tough Braves lineup in his MLB debut earlier this week. With Miller looking effective, there’s plenty of reason for the Dodgers to proceed cautiously with their staff ace as he works his way back from his current hamstring ailment. Urias entered the 2023 campaign with a career ERA of just 2.82 (148 ERA+), but his platform season before he’s slated to test free agency in the offseason hasn’t gotten off on the same dominant foot as usual. Through ten starts this season, Urias has posted a surprisingly pedestrian 4.39 ERA (101 ERA+) with a worrisome 5.31 FIP. That season line is weighed down by a final brutal stretch of six starts immediately preceding Urias’s placement on the IL, where he posted a 6.25 ERA and 6.86 FIP in 31 2/3 innings of work.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • Rangers ace Jacob deGrom has been on the injured list with elbow inflammation for a month now, as the club has taken their oft-injured ace’s ramp-up back to game action slowly. After throwing a 25-pitch, fastball-only bullpen session last week, deGrom progressed to a 31-pitch bullpen session yesterday per MLB.com, during which he began to mix in sliders and change-ups. Manager Bruce Bochy noted that deGrom will be evaluated over the coming days as he recovers from the session while the club attempts to establish a clearer timeline for his return. As arguably the best pitcher in the world when healthy it’s hard to overstate the value deGrom, who has posted a 2.67 ERA and 1.57 FIP in his first six starts as a member of the Rangers, has for the club. Nonetheless, Texas has been able to excel even without their ace thanks to excellent performances from Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, and Martin Perez.
  • Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts is out of the lineup today while the 30-year-old star deals with discomfort in his wrist. As noted by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, the issue is in the same wrist that required a cortisone shot during spring training. Acee notes that it’s still too soon for Bogaerts to receive another shot, so the shortstop has opted to instead play through the discomfort on and off throughout the season. The discomfort could help to explain Bogaerts’s struggles this past month, as he has slashed just .195/.290/.268 in 21 games so far in May. Acee notes that the hope is that Bogaerts will be able to return to the lineup tomorrow, but the situation appears to be day-to-day.

List Of Players On Track For 10-And-5 Rights

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In baseball parlance, players are often said to have “10-and-5 rights” or the player might be described as a “10-and-5 guy.” Any player who has 10 or more years of service time and has been with his current club for five or more consecutive years gets veto power over any trade involving them. This essentially functions the same as a no-trade clause, which players can negotiate into their contracts. But with 10-and-5 rights, the right is gained automatically once the conditions are met. There is often overlap, as players that have no-trade clauses will eventually earn 10-and-5 rights as well, which makes it a moot point in those cases.

A player’s status as a 10-and-5 player can impact trade negotiations, as players like Adam Jones and Brandon Phillips have used it blocked trades in the past. Also, a team may sometimes trade a player on the cusp of reaching 10-and-5 status, since it becomes harder to line up a deal once the player has that veto power. The Rays traded Evan Longoria to the Giants in the 2017-2018 offseason, when his service time was at nine years and 170 days, meaning he would have earned 10-and-5 rights just two days into the 2018 campaign.

Listed below are the players who currently have 10-and-5 rights, as well as those who are approaching that mark. For instances where service time is mentioned, keep in mind that an MLB season has 187 days but a player’s service time “year” flips over at 172.

Currently Have 10-and-5 Rights

Altuve has over 11 years of service time and has spent it all with the Astros. It’s a fairly moot point as his current deal, which runs through 2024, contains a full no-trade clause. The club is also more likely to give him another extension than trade him.

Blackmon has over 10 years of service time and all of it with the Rockies. He triggered a player option for 2023, after which he will be a free agent.

Cabrera will reach 20 years of service this year and has been with the Tigers since 2008. He is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, with a couple of vesting options that aren’t a factor since he needs to finish in the top 10 in MVP voting the year prior in order to trigger them. He’s been fairly open about how he’s quite likely to retire at the end of the current season.

Crawford has over 11 years of service, all of it with the Giants. He’s slated for free agency at the end of this season.

Kershaw has over 14 years of experience at this point, all of it with the Dodgers. A trade wouldn’t seem plausible anyway, as he and the club seem to have a nice relationship with each other. He’s re-signed on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons, seemingly keeping the door open to retirement whenever he decides it’s time.

Perez has spent his entire career with the Royals, which has pushed him past the 11-year mark in terms of service time. His current deal runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026.

Sale has gone beyond the 12-year service time mark and is now in his sixth season with the Red Sox. The extension he signed with the club in March of 2019 gave him a full no-trade clause in the middle of the 2020 campaign. He’s been floated as a speculative trade candidate if the Sox fall out of contention this year, though Sale would have to approve such a deal. His current contract runs through 2024 with a club option for 2025.

Stanton has over 12 years in the big leagues now and is in his sixth campaign as a Yankee. His deal runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

Strasburg has beyond 12 years of service right now, all of it with the Nationals. The club’s deal with the right-hander after their 2019 World Series victory went south immediately, as he’s tossed just over 30 innings since then and doesn’t seem near any kind of return. That contract has a full no-trade clause and runs through 2026.

Trout has more than 11 years of service and all of it with the Angels. He already had full no-trade protection from his current contract, which runs through 2030. Some have speculated that the club could look to move Trout and do a full rebuild if Shohei Ohtani departs in free agency after this year. If the Angels ever did consider such a plan, Trout would have to be okay with the destination.

Votto is over 15 years of service at this point, all of it with the Reds. He’s had full no-trade protection since signing his ten-year extension in April of 2012. That deal is now in its final guaranteed year, with the club having a $20MM option for 2024 that comes with a $7MM buyout.

Wainwright has over 17 years of major league service time, all of that with the Cardinals. He re-signed with the club for 2023 and has full no-trade protection from that deal. He is planning to retire after this season.

Will Gain 10-and-5 Rights This Year

Corbin already has over 10 years of service time and is currently in his fifth season with the Nationals. His six-year deal, which runs through 2024, contains partial no-trade protection but he will have 10-and-5 rights at the end of the 2023 campaign. The Nats would probably love to move him but he’s been getting worse in each year of the deal, with his ERA climbing from 3.25 in the first season to 4.66, 5.82 and 6.31, with his 2023 mark currently at 7.71. The backloaded deal will pay him $24MM this year and $35MM next year, meaning he would need a spectacular turnaround in order to have any trade appeal at all.

Goldschmidt has over 11 years of service time but only came over to the Cardinals for the 2019 season, making this his fifth year with the club. It’s a moot point since Goldy got a full no-trade in his most recent extension, which runs through 2024.

Harper has over 10 years of service already and is in his fifth season with the Phillies. His 13-year deal comes with full no-trade protection anyway, and it’s not like the Phils have any interest in trading him. The deal goes through 2031.

Hicks has been with the Yankees since 2016 and came into this season with his service time at 9.041. That means he’s slated to have 10-and-5 rights in August, just after the trade deadline. The extension he signed with the club in 2019 did not have any no-trade protection, though Hicks would get a $1MM assignment bonus if he were traded. He’s perhaps the most notable player on this list, given that he actually seemed like a viable trade candidate in the most recent offseason, though no deal has come together as of yet. His contract pays him $10.5MM this year and then $9.5MM in the next two years with a $12.5MM club option for 2026 with a $1MM buyout. If the Yanks want to get this deal off the books, they should probably do it in the next few months. Then again, Hicks has been pretty open about his frustrations with his reduced role of late, speaking to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic about it recently. Perhaps he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery that results in more playing time.

LeMahieu has already surpassed the 10-year service time mark and is in his fifth campaign as a Yankee. His current deal, which runs through 2026, affords him full no-trade protection already.

Machado has over 10 years of service and is in his fifth campaign as a Padre. He already has full no-trade via his contract, which runs through 2033.

Pressly has been with the Astros since July of 2018, meaning he’ll reach five years with the club this summer. He also came into the year with his service time at 9.039, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in August. Pressly has emerged as one of the best relievers in baseball during his time in Houston and has twice agreed to an extension with the club, so a trade doesn’t seem especially likely. His current deal goes through 2024 with a vesting option for 2025.

Yelich is in his sixth season as a Brewer and will get to 10 years of service this season, but it’s a moot point since he has a full no-trade clause in his extension, which runs through 2028 with a mutual option for 2029.

Could Gain 10-and-5 Under Current Contract

Acuna came into this season with just under five years of service time, meaning he won’t get to the 10-year mark until early in the 2028 season. His extension runs through 2026 with two club options. He’s one of the best players in the league and is underpaid on his deal, so Atlanta won’t be looking to deal him unless they fall way out of contention between now and then.

Albies has over five years of service and will get to 10 years in 2027. His extension goes through 2025 with a pair of club options. Similar to Acuna, he’s an excellent player who is on a club-friendly deal, meaning he won’t be a trade candidate unless something horrible happens to the team’s long-term fortunes.

Arenado will cross ten years of service here in 2023 but it’s only his third season as a Cardinal, meaning he’ll have 10-and-5 status after the 2025 season. That’s mostly just a footnote though, since Arenado’s extension with the Rockies came will full no-trade protection, which he waived to become a Cardinal. He seems quite content in St. Louis and chose not to opt-out of his deal at the end of 2022, even though he could have likely got more money on the open market.

Báez came into this season with his service at 7.089, meaning he’ll get to 10 years about halfway into the 2025 season. This is just his second year as a Tiger, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2026, when he will have one year left on his six-year deal. That contract affords Báez limited no-trade protection, which allows him to block trades to 10 teams each year, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Báez can also opt out after this year, though that doesn’t seem to be a strong possibility based on his performance as a Tiger thus far.

Berríos comes into this season with his service time at 6.044, which puts him in line to get to 10 years late in the 2026 season. He’ll also get to five years with the Blue Jays at the end of July in that year, since he was acquired from the Twins at the deadline in 2021. His extension, which runs through 2028, affords him an opt-out after that 2026 season and gives him an eight-team no-trade list, per Gregor Chisholm of The Toronto Star.

Betts has a service count of 8.070, meaning he’ll get to 10 years in the middle parts of next year. He’s been with the Dodgers since 2020, meaning he’ll get to 10-and-5 at the end of the 2024 season. Given his excellent production on a consistent competitor like the Dodgers, he doesn’t stand out as a trade candidate anyway, unless something changes drastically. His extension runs through 2032.

Bogaerts only just joined the Padres, but his 11-year deal means he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy after 2027. That doesn’t really matter since he has a full no-trade clause on his deal anyway, making it likely he’s a Padre through 2033.

Bryant is in just his second campaign as a Rockie but will be a 10-and-5 guy after 2026. He already has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which runs through 2028.

Buxton already has a full no-trade clause on the extension he and the Twins signed in November of 2021. He has between six and seven years of service time and will pass 10 years in 2026, with his deal running through 2028.

Castillo came into this season with his service time at 5.101, putting him in line to get to 10 years a couple of months into 2027. He’ll also get to the five-year mark with the Mariners midway through that season, having been acquired in July of 2022. His contract runs through 2027 with a vesting/club option for 2028. He has full no-trade protection on that deal but only for the first three years, which starts this year. That means his ability to block a trade will be gone at the end of the 2025 season but return in late July 2027.

Cole will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Yankee until the end of 2024. It’s a moot point anyway since his contract, which runs through 2028, gives him full no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2024 but the team can void that by triggering a club option for 2029.

Contreras has over six years of service time and will pass the 10-year mark in 2026. Since he just signed with the Cardinals, he won’t have five years with the club until the end of 2027. That will be the last guaranteed season of the five-year deal, though there’s a club option for 2028.

Correa will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Twin until after 2026. His 10-and-5 status is a footnote anyway, since he has a full no-trade clause already.

Cronenworth has been with the Padres since the start of 2020, meaning he came into this year with exactly three years of service time. He won’t get to 10 years until the end of the 2029 campaign but he just signed an extension with the club that runs through 2030. He has an eight-team no-trade clause on that deal.

Darvish has over 11 years of service time now but won’t have five years as a Padre until after 2025. He recently signed an extension that runs through 2028, which affords him full no-trade protection.

deGrom only just joined the Rangers on a five-year deal, though there’s a conditional option for 2028. It’s a moot point anyway since he already has a full no-trade clause in the deal.

Devers came into this season with his service clock at 5.070, meaning he’ll get to the 10-year mark midway through 2027. His extension, which runs through 2033, does not give him any no-trade rights. It seems unlikely that the Sox would try to move Devers, since he seemed to be the one superstar they were intent on keeping while trading Betts and letting Bogaerts get away. But if something changes years down the road and they start considering a Devers deal, it would get harder after his 10-and-5 rights kick in.

Despite being on the injured list and likely to miss all of 2023, this will be the fifth season as a Met for Diaz. He’ll get to 10 years of service in 2026 but has full no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2027 with an option for 2028. He can opt out after 2025.

Flores will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but won’t have five years as a Giant until after 2024. That’s the last guaranteed year of his extension, but there’s a dual option for 2025. Flores will have a $3.5MM player option and, if he declines, the club will have a $8.5MM option.

Freeland came into this year with a service count of 5.144, meaning he’ll get to 10 years early in 2027. His extension is only guaranteed through 2026, though there’s a $17MM player option for 2027, which is contingent on Freeland tossing 170 innings in 2026. The Rockies rarely trade their core players even when it’s fairly logical to do so, but it’s possible this could become noteworthy as the contract winds down.

Freeman already has over 12 years of service time but is in just his second season as a Dodger. He’ll have 10-and-5 rights after 2026, when his deal will have one year and $27MM remaining on it.

Franco came into 2023 with his service time at just 1.104, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until midway through 2031. His deal goes through 2032 with a club option for 2023. Most teams wouldn’t give much thought to trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Franco, but the Rays are always frugal and already went down this road once. As mentioned up top, they dealt Longoria just as his 10-and-5 rights were about to kick in. Franco doesn’t have any no-trade protection but would get an extra $3MM if he’s ever dealt.

Gimenez has just 2.106 as a service time count, but he just signed an extension that runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030. He’ll cross the 10-year service mark during that 2030 campaign.

Harris didn’t even play a full season last year but was awarded a full year of service time anyway by winning Rookie of the Year. He signed an eight-year extension with the club that runs through 2030 with a couple of club options after that. He’ll be a 10-and-5 guy at the end of the 2031 campaign if the first of those options is triggered.

Hayes comes into 2023 with his service clock at 2.075, putting him on a path to reach 10 years during the 2030 campaign. His deal with the Pirates is only guaranteed through 2029 but there’s a club option for 2030.

Hendricks had a service time count of 8.081 at the start of this season, meaning he’ll get to 10 years midway through 2024. This is the last guaranteed year of his extension, with a $16MM club option for 2024 with a $1.5MM buyout. Hendricks has struggled in the past two seasons and hasn’t yet pitched this year after suffering a capsular tear in his throwing shoulder last year. It seems unlikely that option gets picked up unless he gets healthy and has a tremendous showing in the second half of this year.

Judge has a full no-trade clause in his mega-deal with the Yankees, and it’s hard to fathom the club wanting to deal him anyway. He will get to 10 years of service time in 2026.

Lindor started this year with a service count of 7.113, meaning he will get to 10 years of service in 2025. That will also be his fifth year as a Met. He currently has a 15-team no-trade clause as part of his extension, which runs through 2031.

Marte has been with the Diamondbacks since 2017 and will surpass the 10-year service mark in 2026, with his service clock at 6.162 coming into this year. His extension runs through 2027 with a club option for 2028.

McCullers has spent his entire career as an Astro and will cross the 10-year threshold in 2025, coming into this year with a service tally of 7.140. The extension he signed with the club in 2021 runs through 2026 and has limited no-trade protection.

McMahon has been with the Rockies for his entire career with a service tally of 5.006 coming into this year. That puts him on pace to get to 10 years of service in 2027, the final year of the extension he recently signed with the club. He could potentially earn opt-out opportunities after 2025 and 2026 based on MVP voting.

Murphy came into this year with his service time at 3.029, meaning he won’t get to 10 years until 2029. His recent extension with Atlanta goes through 2028 with a club option for 2029.

Musgrove will get to 10 years of service time in 2026, which will be his sixth as a Padre. His extension, which runs through 2027, gives him a full no-trade clause through 2026. He only has limited no-trade protection in 2027 but he’ll be a 10-and-5 guy by then.

Nimmo has been a Met for his entire career and will get to the 10-year service mark in 2026, but he has a full no-trade clause on his contract anyway.

Olson has a service tally of just 5.103 and isn’t slated to cross the 10-year mark until 2027. His extension with Atlanta runs through 2029 with a club option for 2030.

Ozuna came into this season with his service clock at 9.124, meaning he’ll be at 10 years in May. However, this is just his fourth year with Atlanta, meaning he won’t be a 10-and-5 guy until after 2024. That’s the final guaranteed year of his deal, though there is a $16MM club option for 2025. It’s highly unlikely he’s still with the club at that time, since this deal is generally considered to be underwater both due to his poor performance and off-field issues. It’s already been speculated that the club may release him before the deal is finished, making it hard to envision a trade or the option eventually being picked up.

Ramírez has spent his entire career with Cleveland and will get to 10 years of service in 2024. It’s a moot point as his extension, which runs through 2028, has a full no-trade clause.

Realmuto is currently in his fifth year with the Phillies and had a service count of 8.038 coming into the year. That puts him on pace for 10-and-5 status towards the end of next year. His deal doesn’t have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $1MM bonus every time he’s dealt. He’s under contract through 2025, which will be his age-34 season.

Rendon will get to 10 years of service here in 2023 but it’s just his fourth season as an Angel. He’ll get to 10-and-5 status after 2024 but already has full no-trade protection on his contract, which runs through 2026.

Riley came into 2023 with a service count of 3.138, which puts him on track to pass 10 years early in 2029. His deal runs through 2032 with a club option for 2033.

Rodón will get to 10 years of service in 2025 and then have five years as a Yankee after 2027, when he’ll have one year left on his six-year deal. The 10-and-5 status will be irrelevant, however, as he already has full no-trade protection.

J-Rod has just the one year of service time so far but recently signed a convoluted mega-extension that could potentially end up lasting 18 years. He has full no-trade protection as part of that, making his eventual 10-and-5 status moot.

Ruiz had just 1.064 as a service count coming into this year but recently agreed to a lengthy extension with the Nats that runs through 2030 with two club options after that. He’s currently on pace for 10-and-5 rights in 2031.

Seager will get to 10 years of service in 2025 but won’t have five years as a Ranger until the end of 2026. He has limited no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2031.

Semien will get to 10 years of service in 2024 but won’t have five years in Texas until after 2026. He doesn’t have any no-trade protection on his deal, which runs through 2028.

Senzatela came into this year with a service tally of 5.106, putting him on pace to get to 10 years a few months into 2027. His extension with the Rockies is only guaranteed through 2026, but there’s a $14MM club option for 2027.

Springer will get to 10 years of service early in 2024 but is in just his third season as a Blue Jay right now. His six-year deal runs through 2026 and he’ll get 10-and-5 status after 2025. He currently has an eight-team no-trade clause.

Story will get to 10 years of service after 2025 but won’t have five years with Boston until after 2026. His deal, which runs through 2027, does not have any no-trade protection. He can opt out after 2025, but the team can void that by preemptively exercising an option for 2028.

Swanson only just joined the Cubs on a seven-year deal. By the end of 2027, he’ll have five years with the club and be well beyond 10 years of service, though it’s a moot point since he already has full no-trade protection.

Tatis has between three and four years of service, putting him on track for 10-and-5 in 2029, but he already has full no-trade protection on his extension which runs through 2034.

Taylor came into this year with a service count of 7.037, putting him on pace to get to 10 years late in the 2025 season. He’s already been with the Dodgers since partway through the 2016 campaign. His contract is guaranteed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He doesn’t currently have any no-trade protection, but he does get a $2MM assignment bonus each time he’s dealt, and a trade would also increase the value of his option.

Turner just joined the Phillies but will get to 10-and-5 status after 2027. Like many others on the list, that designation doesn’t really matter for him, since his 11-year deal already affords him full no-trade protection.

Xander Bogaerts Discusses Free Agency

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There were few bigger stories of last offseason than Xander Bogaerts’ free agency. A career-long member of the Red Sox, he opted out of the final three years and $60MM on his deal with Boston to test the open market. That came six months after Spring Training extension talks had gone nowhere, setting the stage for Bogaerts to join the Padres on a stunning 11-year, $280MM contract at the Winter Meetings.

Bogaerts recently addressed the end of his time in Boston with Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He expressed disappointment with the Red Sox’s initial extension proposal last spring. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported at the time that Boston had offered four years and $90MM — one year and $30MM in new money — for Bogaerts to preemptively forego his opt-out chance. It was a surprisingly light offer that turned out to be well below Bogaerts’ open market value, one with which the All-Star shortstop wasn’t satisfied.

“The one in spring training was a little tough. I think it’s well-documented what the offer was,” Bogaerts told Cotillo. “That was a tough pill to swallow at that time because you’re hearing about extension talks so you’re looking forward to seeing what they’re thinking and what they’re offering. That was a tough one.”

The sides halted talks during the season but reengaged at the end of the year. Boston brass maintained at the outset of the offseason that keeping Bogaerts was their top priority. They indeed moved quite a bit from their extension offer, reportedly putting forth a proposal in the six-year, $160MM range during the winter. That was at least in the realm of general expectations at the start of the offseason — MLBTR predicted Bogaerts at seven years and $189MM at the start of the winter — but came up well shy of San Diego’s winning bid. Free agent prices for star talent exploded last winter and it seemed clear by the Winter Meetings that Bogaerts would surpass $200MM, though few would’ve foreseen a team nearing $300MM.

“Way off,” Bogaerts said of Boston’s final offer. “They felt the way they felt. They did what they did. I have no bad feelings for them. I’ve seen multiple great players come through that organization who I’ve played with and they’re not there anymore. Some guys went from pretty untradeable to tradeable. That was eye-opening. It makes you see things differently, for sure.”

It indeed seems clear the Red Sox weren’t as bullish on Bogaerts’ long-term projection as the Padres were. Boston had an in-house replacement to step in at shortstop after signing Trevor Story to a $140MM guarantee two offseasons ago. Those plans were scuttled, at least early in 2023, when it was revealed Story required an internal brace procedure to address a ligament issue in his throwing elbow. That pushed Enrique Hernández in from center field to man shortstop, though Adam Duvall’s wrist fracture could force Hernández back into center field more frequently.

Boston made another huge investment in the left side of the infield later in the winter. The Sox agreed to a $313.5MM extension with third baseman Rafael Devers in January. Devers is four years younger than Bogaerts and has been an even better hitter than the star shortstop. It’s not hard to see why the Boston front office considered Devers the safer long-term investment, even as Bogaerts plays the more demanding position and assuaged some concern about his glove with solid defensive marks last year.

Padres Injury Notes: Engel, Soto, Nola, Bogaerts, Musgrove

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Adam Engel suffered a hamstring injury during Thursday’s Cactus League game, putting his availability for the Padres’ Opening Day roster in severe jeopardy.  “Hamstrings can be a little bit [tricky] so we’ll see how he progresses, but…I think it’d be tough for him to make another game here in Spring Training,” Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters, including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Engel’s progress was already slowed by a calf strain earlier in camp, and the outfielder has played in only six Spring Training games.  Between this lack of ramp-up period and the time it’ll take for Engel to recover from his current hamstring issue, a stint on the 10-day injured list certainly looks probable for Engel at the beginning of the season.

The Padres signed Engel to a one-year deal this winter with an eye towards using the veteran as a fourth outfielder, given Engel’s strong track record as a defender.  With Fernando Tatis Jr. still having to serve 20 games left on his PED suspension, Engel was tapped for a good amount of playing time in April, but it is now possible Tatis might get back onto the field before Engel does, depending on the severity of the hamstring issue.

In better news for San Diego’s outfield, Juan Soto might be able to avoid the IL in the wake of the mild oblique strain that sidelined him last weekend.  The Padres have naturally been very careful with Soto, but he was making some light throws in the outfield and taking dry swings yesterday, in a positive step this early in his recovery process from any kind of oblique problem.

With some cautious optimism about Soto and now some doubt over Engel, it still seems as though the Padres will have at least one outfield job available on the Opening Day roster.  Jose Azocar and Brandon Dixon are the internal choices, and perhaps more than one of David Dahl, Tim Lopes, and Rougned Odor could have their minor league contracts selected to the roster.  To help his chances of making the team, Odor recently saw some action in left field, despite never playing in the outfield before during his pro career.

Like Soto, Austin Nola might also be in the Opening Day lineup despite an ominous late-spring setback, as Nola was hit in the face by a Michael Fulmer pitch on Sunday and suffered a fractured nose and three stitches.  While that diagnosis isn’t exactly good, Nola was “so glad it’s what it is and not the eyes, a concussion or any of that stuff,” he told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell.  The catcher might now even get back into game action before Spring Training is over, as Nola caught Seth Lugo’s bullpen session yesterday.

Xander Bogaerts received a cortisone shot in his left wrist, and isn’t expected to play again until Sunday.  As Melvin told Sanders and company, “there’s no concern, [Bogaerts] has one of these a spring,” due to periodic soreness in his wrist.  The prized signing of San Diego’s offseason, Bogaerts is in no danger of missing his first Opening Day in a Padres uniform.

One player guaranteed to miss some time is Joe Musgrove, who suffered an unfortunate fluke injury in late February when a weight-room accident resulted in a broken left big toe.  The Padres ace’s recovery timeline has become more clear as he has been rehabbing the injury, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes (via Twitter) that Musgrove will hit another important checkpoint when he pitches in a minor league spring game on Monday.

The right-hander will miss relatively little time, as Acee notes that Musgrove is being tentatively scheduled to make his season debut on either April 11 or April 16.  However, the Padres still face a rotation crunch with Musgrove sidelined and Yu Darvish still properly ramping up after his usual spring routine was interrupted by the World Baseball Classic.  As a result, San Diego might deploy a six-man rotation to help manage arms during an unusually busy early schedule — the Padres play games on 24 of the first 25 days of the new season.  Blake Snell, Nick Martinez, Michael Wacha, Jay Groome, Lugo, and Darvish would comprise the rotation until Musgrove’s return could shuffle things up.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Boras: Blue Jays, Cubs, Twins “Were Really After” Xander Bogaerts

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Xander Bogaerts’ first visit to free agency resulted in an 11-year, $280MM deal with the Padres that greatly exceeded projections, even for a player who was expected to land one of the offseason’s biggest contracts.  Agent Scott Boras discussed some of the twists and turns of Bogaerts’ free agent trip with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, and Boras identified that Bogaerts was San Diego’s second choice, once Trea Turner rejected a reported $342MM offer from the Padres.

Once Turner turned down the Padres’ offer to sign with the Phillies, “we kind of knew the Padres’ guy was Bogaerts,” Boras said.  “They wanted that personality, that leadership in that locker room.”  Left unspoken by Boras was the fact that the Padres were clearly itching to land a big target of some kind, even to the point of considering a $400MM bid for Aaron Judge.  With Judge and Turner off the board, the Padres may have been more willing to go above and beyond to sign Bogaerts, and ensure that their offseason endeavors would include at least one superstar name.

The Red Sox reportedly made a last-ditch effort to sign Bogaerts in the hours preceding his deal with San Diego, though Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom later downplayed the chances that a reunion between Bogaerts and the Red Sox was becoming a possibility.  There were mixed signals from Boston’s ownership and front office all season long about the franchise’s willingness to retain Bogaerts, and from Boras’ perspective, the Red Sox weren’t ever a major bidder.

“It was just really clear to us there was a separation where Boston was going to go for Bogaerts, compared to where the market was,” Boras said.  “They probably made a decision they were going to sign [Rafael] Devers, and were going to pay only one of them.  So we knew at the forefront that Bogey would be somewhere besides Boston.”

Sure enough, the Red Sox indeed ended up extending Devers, while Bogaerts landed in San Diego.  As for other teams in the hunt, such teams as the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Mariners, Dodgers, and Giants were all linked to Bogaerts at various points in the offseason, even if some of these pursuits were perhaps more cursory than others.  Boras implied that three teams in particular (beyond the Padres) separated themselves from the pack, saying that “Minnesota, the Cubs, the Blue Jays, they were really after” Bogaerts’ services.

The Cubs and Twins were already known to be Bogaerts’ suitors, and as both clubs were monitoring the high-end shortstop market and eventually came away with two of the winter’s top options at the position — Chicago signed Dansby Swanson, while Minnesota (eventually) reunited with Carlos Correa.  The Twins’ interest in Bogaerts was framed as a backup plan if Correa signed elsewhere, though Bogaerts ended up signing with the Padres before Correa agreed to his initial deal with the Giants.  As for the Cubs, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote that the team gave some consideration to the idea of signing both Bogaerts and Swanson, with Bogaerts playing third base in that blockbuster scenario.

It makes for some fascinating “what-if” material, since neither the Twins or the Cubs were previously considered top candidates to sign Bogaerts.  However, the Blue Jays’ involvement is perhaps the most interesting, as Toronto hadn’t previously been linked to Bogaerts or any of the top shortstops whatsoever.  While the aggressive Jays are known to be a team that routinely checks in on most free agents as a matter of due diligence, Toronto’s focus was known to be on the club’s greater needs in the outfield and in the rotation.  Such names as Justin Verlander, Brandon Nimmo, and Kodai Senga were among the many players linked to the Blue Jays, and Toronto has thus far signed Chris Bassitt, Kevin Kiermaier, and Brandon Belt, while Daulton Varsho and Erik Swanson were respectively acquired in major trades with the Diamondbacks and Mariners that saw Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Teoscar Hernandez change uniforms.

These moves have sent the Jays’ payroll to franchise-record heights, and set the team up to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the first time.  So in that sense, making a splash to sign Bogaerts wouldn’t have been out of line with the Blue Jays’ spending habits, even if obviously landing Bogaerts would have entirely changed the scope of Toronto’s offseason.

First and foremost, the Blue Jays already have a star shortstop in Bo Bichette, who is only entering his age-25 season and already amassed two top-12 finishes in AL MVP voting, an All-Star nod, and 9.6 fWAR in 2021-22.  (For comparison, Bogaerts had 10.4 fWAR in 2021-22.)  Bichette’s success at the plate, however, was tempered by a rather drastic defensive decline in 2022, as public metrics placed Bichette among the league’s worst defensive players.  Ironically, Bogaerts’ glovework had long been a source of controversy, but he quelled some doubts over his viability as a shortstop by delivering the best defensive season of his career in 2022.

Had the Jays signed Bogaerts, they could’ve installed him at shortstop and moved Bichette to second base, and then used the current collection of second-base options (i.e. Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, Whit Merrifield) either purely as depth options or as trade chips.  Since Matt Chapman is a free agent after the 2023 season, the Blue Jays might’ve considered moving Bogaerts to third base at that point and returning Bichette to shortstop, if Chapman wasn’t retained.  Or, if signing Bogaerts would’ve taken up much or all of Toronto’s payroll space, the Blue Jays might have been considered trading Bichette in order to address other needs.  If the Jays hadn’t had the money to sign a Bassitt-level starter, for instance, Bichette could have been shopped to land a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Chaim Bloom Discusses Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Extensions

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Xander Bogaerts signed with the Padres on the final day of the Winter Meetings, agreeing to a huge 11-year, $280MM deal.  Despite speculation that the Red Sox were coming closer to re-signing the shortstop, “that was definitely not what our impression was throughout the day and even the day before,” Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo.

The signing officially ended Bogaerts’ time with the Red Sox, a tenure that began when Bogaerts was an international signing in August 2009 and lasted through 10 Major League seasons, two World Series championship teams, and four All-Star appearances for the shortstop.  Bogaerts signed a six-year, $120MM contract extension with the Sox prior to the 2019 season, but chose to exercise his opt-out clause after the first three years of the extension, thus paving the way for his departure from Boston and his new home in San Diego.

Last spring, the Red Sox both signed Trevor Story to a long-term free agent deal and offered Bogaerts only a one-year extension (worth $30MM) on his contract, which were both widely interpreted as signs that the Sox weren’t counting on Bogaerts remaining beyond the date of his opt-out.  Bloom publicly said several times that the Red Sox did indeed want to retain Bogaerts, and reiterated that stance even in the aftermath of the shortstop’s deal with the Padres.

“We wouldn’t have said that if we didn’t mean it,” Bloom said. “I think it became clear to us as things went on that this [Bogaerts’ price tag] was going to go to a point that we just weren’t, irrespective of how we prioritize things, it just wasn’t something that we should do.  It’s hard because of how much we love him.  But it’s just the reality of the situation.”

In fairness to the Red Sox, nobody expected Bogaerts to receive anything near a $280MM contract, and it is understandable why the organization didn’t want to reach that far.  That said, reports suggested the Red Sox offered Bogaerts six years and around $160MM, which didn’t match the seven-year, $189MM deal MLBTR projected Bogaerts would land on the open market.  In addition, the Sox have obviously had exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts for years, and could’ve more aggressively pursued an extension at any point before Bogaerts reached free agency.

Bogaerts joins Mookie Betts and Jon Lester as homegrown Red Sox stars who left the team (Bogaerts in free agency, Betts and Lester in trades) after extension talks didn’t materialize into a longer-term deal.  Of course, as Bloom noted, Bogaerts did already ink one extension with the team, putting him “at a different place in his career.”  The Sox have signed relatively few extensions in recent years and only three extensions since Bloom took over the front office following the 2019 season.  Bloom told Cotillo that the team may change how it approaches extension candidates, perhaps with more of a focus on extending players to contracts before they reach salary arbitration.

“Anytime you have a situation where you have a homegrown player who wants to be here and we want him here and it doesn’t happen, I think those are fair questions to ask and those are questions we certainly need to ask ourselves,” Bloom said.  “We haven’t, as an organization, always found a way to come together in those situations. I think it’s something to think about and assess.”

Rafael Devers presents the next big question for the Red Sox in this regard, as the star third baseman is set to reach free agency following the 2023 season.  In a separate piece, a source close to Devers told Cotillo that “Bogaerts’ decision would not make it more likely that Devers would want to leave Boston,” as much as Devers would be “disappointed” at no longer playing with his longtime friend.

Bloom reiterated his team’s interest in keeping Devers, saying that “Raffy, for sure, is somebody we want to build around.”

“I’ve said it, and I know we haven’t demonstrated this to the degree that we’ve hoped to, but we believe in building around homegrown talent.  You want to do it in the right way,” Bloom said.  “It’s certainly something we want to do as often as we can….[Devers] has been somebody that we love and want right at the center of everything we hope to accomplish, obviously in 2023 but more importantly, in the years beyond, because those are the years he’s not under our control. We’re hoping to change that.”

Padres Sign Xander Bogaerts To 11-Year Deal

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December 9: The Padres have officially announced the deal. Chris Cotillo of MassLive provides the full contract breakdown. Bogaerts will make a $5MM signing bonus followed by 11 straight seasons with a $25MM salary.

December 8: The Padres closed out the Winter Meetings with a stunner, reportedly agreeing to an 11-year, $280MM contract with Xander Bogaerts. The deal does not contain any options or opt-out provisions, although it does include a full no-trade clause. Bogaerts is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Bogaerts had spent his whole career in Boston, originally joining the organization as an amateur signee from Aruba back in 2009. He quickly developed into one of the sport’s top prospects and was in the majors by August 2013, a few months before his 21st birthday. Bogaerts claimed two Silver Slugger awards within his first four MLB seasons, but his .283/.339/.409 career slash line through 2017 was roughly league average. He took a major step forward in 2018, reaching another level in his age-25 campaign.

He hit .288/.360/.522 with 23 home runs over 136 games that season, helping lead Boston to 108 wins and a World Series title. Bogaerts sustained that new level of excellence, as he’s been a well above-average offensive performer in each of the four years since then. Going back to the start of the 2018 campaign, the righty-hitting infielder owns a .300/.373/.507 line that checks in 34 percentage points above league average by measure of wRC+.

On the heels of that breakout season, the Red Sox inked Bogaerts to a long-term deal. Boston guaranteed him $120MM between 2020-25, allowing him to opt out with half that money remaining after 2022. Bogaerts played well enough to earn MVP votes in each of the four seasons since signing that extension, making it a no-brainer he’d take his opt-out opportunity unless he and the Red Sox could preemptively agree upon a new deal.

Extension talks this spring didn’t come close, as Boston reportedly offered to tack on one additional season at $30MM. Turning that down was an easy call for Bogaerts’ camp, and he solidified his opt-out decision with another excellent year. Through 631 plate appearances, he hit .307/.377/.456. Bogaerts’ 15 home runs marked his lowest full-season total since 2017, but he finished tenth in the majors (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage.

A career-best .362 batting average on balls in play propped up those rate stats, and it’s unlikely he’ll manage to sustain quite so lofty a mark in future seasons. He owns a career .336 BABIP, though, so there’s plenty of room to remain a strong hitter even if his batting average comes down slightly. He’s walked at an average or better clip in each of the past five years, and he’s kept his strikeout rate remarkably consistent around 18% six seasons running.

Bogaerts makes contact, draws walks and typically threatens or tops 20 homers per season. He’s one of the more well-rounded offensive players in the game, and he’ll step right into an already loaded San Diego lineup. Bogaerts joins Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the middle of a lineup that should be incredibly difficult for opposing pitchers to navigate. That quintet has 11 combined Silver Slugger awards, and they’ll bring an incredible collection of weapons from both sides of the dish.

Where to pencil everyone in on the diamond is a decision the front office and manager Bob Melvin will work out over the coming months. San Diego’s middle infield was already strong. Tatis, two years removed from inking a $341MM extension to serve as the franchise shortstop, will return from his performance-enhancing drug suspension within the first month of next season. Ha-Seong Kim is a Gold Glove caliber shortstop who had a solid .251/.325/.383 line in his second big league campaign. Jake Cronenworth is an above-average defender at second base and owns a .257/.339/.443 mark through his first three seasons.

At least for the moment, Bogaerts seems likely to step in at shortstop. Scott Boras categorically rejected the possibility of Bogaerts moving off the position earlier this offseason. Perhaps the strength of the Padres’ offer changed that thinking, but it’s also possible the Friars rearrange their infield to accommodate his wishes. San Diego had already been considering the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield after his lost season in deference to Kim. Pushing Tatis into left or center field now seems especially likely. Bogaerts could step in at shortstop, with Kim moving to second base and Cronenworth taking over an uncertain first base position.

Bogaerts’ glove has been the subject of immense attention throughout the free agent process. The 6’2″, 218-pounder has a larger build than many shortstops, and he’s drawn some criticism for lacking prototypical range. Public defensive metrics roundly panned his glove throughout his career, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him below par every year from 2014-21. Concerns about his long-term defensive outlook seemingly played into Boston’s low extension offer this past spring, but Bogaerts posted the strongest defensive metrics of his career in 2022.

In 1249 2/3 innings this past season, he rated as five runs above average by DRS and four runs better than par, according to Statcast. Concerns about his lateral quickness into his mid-30’s figure to persist, but his strong 2022 campaign at least reduced any urgency to move him off shortstop immediately.

The Padres clearly aren’t much concerned about Bogaerts’ long-term defensive fit. Owner Peter Seidler and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have been hellbent on adding another star regardless of position. They reportedly made offers well north of $300MM for both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, but both players declined and signed elsewhere. Those failed pursuits of Turner and Judge made the Padres a fascinating wild card this offseason, and while reports initially suggested they were unlikely to dip back into the shortstop market, they pivoted and made a run at Bogaerts.

An 11-year term will take him through his age-40 campaign. That matches the term Turner received from Philadelphia, but Bogaerts was generally expected to command a lesser deal in light of his long-term defensive concerns. Turner’s $300MM guarantee does beat the one received by Bogaerts, but the $20MM gap was closer than most had envisioned.

The deal shatters MLBTR’s pre-offseason prediction of $189MM over seven seasons. It’s the second-largest free agent deal in franchise history — trailing only Machado’s ten-year, $300MM pact. The $280MM guarantee is the seventh-largest for a free agent in MLB history, with Judge and Turner topping it thus far among this offseason’s free agents.

The cost for the Padres goes well beyond the terms of the offer itself. The specific financial breakdown hasn’t yet been reported, but the contract comes with a $25.45MM average annual value. That’s the relevant consideration for luxury tax purposes, and it sends the Padres well into tax territory. Roster Resource projects the Friars for a tax number around $254MM at present. That’s $21MM north of the $233MM base threshold, and $1MM above the second tier of penalization.

San Diego has paid the luxury tax in each of the last two seasons, and it looks all but certain they’ll do so again. They’re taxed at a 50% rate for every dollar spent between $233MM and $253MM, coming out to $10MM in fees. They’ll be charged 62% on any overages between $253MM and $273MM, and they’d face heightened penalties thereafter. As things currently stand, the Bogaerts deal sets them up for a tax bill around $10.6MM. Further additions or subtractions will alter that number, but it’s virtually certain they’ll be into competitive balance tax territory yet again.

It’s worth noting that at $27.27MM and $25.45MM respectively, both Turner and Bogaerts accepted lower average annual values than expected while also reaching an 11-year term that had only happened once before in free agency when Bryce Harper signed for 13 years.  With infielders Corey Seager, Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Anthony Rendon receiving AAVs ranging from $32.5-35MM dating back to 2019, it may be surprising that Turner and Bogaerts fell well below that range.  It’s all about that CBT – the Phillies and Padres reduce their luxury tax hits and tax bills for taking on the players’ late-30s seasons, which project to have little value.

Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, meaning the Padres will also have to surrender draft choices to add him. As a team that paid the luxury tax in 2022, they’re subject to the highest penalties. San Diego will be stripped of its second and fifth-highest selections in next year’s amateur draft, and they’ll forfeit $1MM in international signing bonus space.

While the Padres load up for another run at the powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West, the Red Sox will have to move on from a homegrown star who’s played a key role with the franchise for nearly a decade. It’s an abrupt about-face for the organization. While it had long looked as if Bogaerts would depart given the lack of progress on an extension in Spring Training, reports Wednesday morning suggested their talks with his camp were gaining momentum.

It seemed as if he might remain in Boston for the entirety of his prime, but the Padres’ offer wound up handily surpassing Boston’s. Pete Abraham and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe report the Red Sox had offered a six-year term worth around $160MM. That was more in line with general pre-offseason expectations and contained a slightly higher annual salary than the deal Boagerts received, but San Diego’s willingness to tack on an extra half-decade in guaranteed money made the gap enormous.  Somehow, the $137.375MM the Red Sox spent on Masataka Yoshida and Kenley Jansen earlier Wednesday almost seems quaint in comparison to the Bogaerts contract.

The Red Sox will receive compensation for Bogaerts’ departure, but it’s at the lowest tier since Boston also paid the competitive balance tax in 2022. They’ll receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft. That’s of small consolation, and the far greater concern is how the club will move forward. Boston signed Trevor Story to a $140MM guarantee last offseason, giving themselves some cover at shortstop. Should they prefer to keep Story at second base, they could check in with the two remaining top free agent shortstops, Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson.  Regardless, Boston is certainly not done after chief baseball office Chaim Bloom said Monday he hopes to add “seven, eight, nine” players to the team this offseason.  Starting pitcher and the catcher position are two items remaining on the shopping list even if shortstop is handled in-house.

Correa and Swanson are sitting pretty with Turner and Bogaerts having exceeded expectations in terms of total dollars.  While the Boras Corporation representing both Bogaerts and Correa could be viewed as a conflict of interest, the agency managed to get Bogaerts signed with a team that hadn’t been expected to sign a shortstop at the outset of the offseason.

It’s a deal of massive proportions, one that could drastically shake up both leagues. After a couple attempts came up empty, the Padres landed their desired superstar. The Red Sox’s optimism of a few hours ago was dashed by a determined organization that now spends like a big-market behemoth. Bogaerts lands one of the largest contracts in MLB history, setting the stage for a fascinating bidding war for the two star shortstops who remain unsigned.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report Bogaerts and the Padres had agreed to an 11-year, $280MM contract. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the deal did not come with any opt-out provisions and included a full no-trade clause.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Have “Momentum” With Xander Bogaerts

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1:15pm: Abraham tweets that there is “momentum” between Bogaerts and the Sox.

11:40am: The Red Sox and shortstop Xander Bogaerts are meeting this morning, according to Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe. The sides are in “heavy discussions,” according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

Bogaerts, of course, has spent his entire career with the Sox thus far, having been signed as an amateur back in 2009. He worked his way up to the majors by 2013 and had a tremendous breakout season in 2015, firmly establishing himself as the club’s shortstop. He’s held down that job ever since, making at least 134 starts at short in each full season from 2015 onwards, as well as 52 starts in 2020.

Bogaerts signed an extension with the club in 2019, which was generally considered to be very team-friendly. It had the potential to keep Bogaerts in Boston through 2026, though it also afforded him the opportunity to opt out after 2022. Bogaerts just continued to mash in the four years since that extension was signed, hitting 82 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .304/.376/.503 from 2019 through 2022. That level of production has made it clear for some time that Bogaerts would opt out, which is perhaps why the Sox went out and grabbed Trevor Story in free agency a year ago. The club reportedly made a feeble attempt at another Bogaerts extension back in April, but that went nowhere and Bogaerts eventually opted out.

Boston’s chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has continued to insist that retaining Bogaerts is a priority for the club, despite Bogaerts seemingly getting stronger interest from other clubs like the Padres, Cubs, Phillies and Diamondbacks. However, it’s possible that there is now some more urgency towards a reunion. As Abraham notes, there was a call last night between Boston’s owners and executives, with the contents of that conversation perhaps leading to today’s meetings.

Bogaerts entered free agency as one of the “big four” shortstops, alongside Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Turner has already come off the board, securing an 11-year, $300MM deal with the Phillies. MLBTR predicted that Bogaerts would get $189MM over seven years, or $27MM per season. However, the market has generally been strong so far this offseason, with most players beating their projections, sometimes significantly.

The Sox have primarily been active in the relief market so far, adding Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez to their bullpen. Those deals have brought their 2023 payroll to $157MM, per Roster Resource, with a competitive balance tax calculation of $177MM. The Sox paid the luxury tax this year but would still be shy of next year’s $233MM threshold even if they added close to $30MM on a Bogaerts deal. However, by going over in 2022, they’ve dented their compensation if Bogaerts signs elsewhere. Since he received and rejected a qualifying offer, the Red Sox would get a draft pick if he joined another team but their CBT payor status bumps that pick to after the fourth round when it would have been just before the third round otherwise.

In the event a deal does get done, it’s likely that the club would use a similar infield mix to last year with Xander at short, Story at second and Devers at third. Devers is entering his walk year, meaning it’s possible that a similar “will they get it done” situation plays out next year with him instead of Bogaerts. For 2023 though, a Bogaerts signing would likely push Enrique Hernández back into center field on a full-time basis, lessening the club’s need to worry about that spot.

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