The Mariners provided an update today on left-hander Robbie Ray, who was reported last week to require season-ending flexor tendon surgery. “Ray, 31, had surgery today on his left elbow,” the press release reads. “The surgery was performed by Dr. Keith Meister at TMI Sports Medicine in Arlington, Texas. Dr. Meister performed a flexor tendon repair and reconstructed the Ulnar Collateral Ligament (UCL) in Ray’s left arm.” The flexor tendon surgery was already reported upon but the UCL reconstruction, also known as Tommy John surgery, wasn’t publicly known prior to today.
In the short term, this news doesn’t change much for the Mariners, as they’ve already been planning on operating without Ray for the remainder of the year. But since TJS typically requires a recovery period of 14 to 18 months, this update seems to indicate the club will be without Ray for even longer, likely a few months into the 2024 season as well.
That’s obviously unwelcome news, as Ray has been one of the better pitchers in the league in recent seasons. After some inconsistency earlier in his career, he had a tremendous season with the Blue Jays in 2021. He posted an ERA of 2.84 in 32 starts with a 32.1% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 37.2% ground ball rate. He won the American League Cy Young award and parlayed that performance into a five-year, $115MM deal with the Mariners.
His first year with Seattle was a bit of a drop-off from the previous season but still with plenty to like. He made 32 starts with a 3.71 ERA, striking out 27.4% of opponents, walking 8% and getting grounders at a 39.2% clip. That helped the Mariners break their postseason drought, making it into the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Unfortunately, he was only able to make a single start this year before landing on the injured list and likely won’t make another until midway through 2024.
The Mariners should still have a strong front four in the rotation between now and then as long as everyone is healthy. Luis Castillo and Marco Gonzales are both still under contract next year while both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert are still many years from qualifying for free agency. The final spot is a little less certain since Chris Flexen has been struggling and is slated for free agency after this season anyway. Prospect Bryce Miller was called up recently to start an audition and Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reported that it wasn’t going to be just a spot start. That was before Miller debuted and tossed six innings against the A’s, allowing just one earned run on two hits and no walks while striking out 10. It’s best not to read too much into just one game, but given that the club planned on giving him a lengthy stay in the rotation anyway and he dominated his first time out, he seems to have a legitimate chance at securing a rotation spot going forward.
Ray is in Rough Shape, it must be the pants
Seriously though, I am sorry to hear this
Something tells me he’s not going to exercise his opt-out next year.
You know, that was my first thought.
But, if his rehab goes well, and he throws well in the second half next year, finishing the season strong, there’s still a chance he will opt-out.
Few people expected Kikuchi to opt-out of his deal with Seattle, yet that’s exactly what happened. He was healthy, but coming off a poor second half in 2021.
I can’t think of one starting rotation that hasn’t been hammered by injuries yet…oh yeah, Toronto Blue Jays. No jinx. I hope they can get by unscathed like the Mariners did last year.
Dang, so many great-random pitchers are getting TJ
It’s all the rage.
Definitely happens way more often.
It’s the consequence of teaching throwing instead of pitching. How did the old guard make it thru 40+ starts per seaaon with far less conditioning than todays pitchers that can barely go 5 innings and can’t make it to 25 starts
Excellent!
The old pitchers did condition. The starter conditioned themselves to go 7 innings. I used to watch them do ‘gassers’ in the outfield. And as you say, pitching is not throwing.
Bad luck.
No chance, I suppose, they might find a couple more Bryce Millers and another Julio or two down on the farm?
Aw . . .
Must be relieved he secured that bag when he did.
Ouch. I believe the new pitch clock will add more arm injuries than in the recent past. The speed I believe is too fast for pitchers throwing at maximum strength with heavy movement. Not enough rest between pitches.
It’s the ‘maximum strength with heavy movement”.
Not the pitch clock.
Ok, We’ll See
We HAVE seen. Look at video of Nolan Ryan, Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Pedro Martinez, or Greg Maddux. Time their seconds between pitches. Then look at the innings they threw.
TJS has been on the rise for years, predating the pitch clock change. But the early going in 2023 seems like a new high.
What is with all the injuries in baseball? Tommy John Surgery or whatever. It’s an epidemic of injuries everywhere. Been like this for several years.
Pitching is not a natural motion
Nope.
That’s the problem.
‘Course that’s what makes it so hard to learn, and why great pitchers make so much money
And why guys like me join the Navy or something after high school.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge.
I like to compare it to powerlifting/bodybuilding. We all know we’re not supposed to be putting all that weight on our back and lifting but we do it anyway and can do more and more but it will come back to get you sooner or later and that back isn’t gonna make it. Just like a pitcher throwing harder and harder and putting more spin on the ball. Sooner or later the shoulder/elbow can’t take the stress anymore but we’re going to keep pushing ourselves anyway cause money and fame and pride
I suggest we play whiffle ball instead. Yeah, that’s what could change, like the pitch clock,
So is this a better or worse scenario? Are we taking care of 2 problems at the same time or does this lengthen the rehab time? Did the one problem cause the 2nd problem? I’m getting dizzy. Er
I wish him a speedy recovery but man the jays are lucky he accepted the Ms offer. My understanding is they made a similar offer and he said no. The covid era in Tao was very hard on the players and there familys so im sure that had something to due with it. Gausman has been lights out sense he went to the Bay
Terrible news
Blame the nerds for this. They demand velocity at all costs. Throw 99 at max effort or you shall not be drafted.
The irony of a grown man named Seamus calling people “nerds”
Anybody who grunts that much is going to have some movement problems.