The NL Central has been full of surprises this season, from the Cardinals’ shocking failure to get off the ground early in the season to Cincinnati’s recent torrid stretch catapulting them into contention. The one team seemingly immune to the division’s upheaval, at least so far, is the Brewers.
Entering play today, the Brewers sport a 44-39 record that leaves them tied with the Reds for the division lead in a relatively weak NL Central division. The club is currently two games into a ten game stretch against division rivals ahead of the All Star break; after splitting its first two games in Pittsburgh, they’ll play the Pirates in a series finale today before returning to Milwaukee to face the Cubs in a four game set. They’ll then finish up the first half with three games against the Reds. With so many games against their top division rivals, the club could take a much firmer hold of the division lead or slip in the standings somewhat prior to the All Star break.
Despite that lingering uncertainty, the club’s front office seems to have its course largely set with less than a month to go until MLB’s trade deadline on August 1. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy discussed the club’s plans with GM Matt Arnold yesterday, and the GM was rather candid about his planned approach as we enter trade season.
“Look, we want to be competitive here in 2023,” Arnold said. “We will be opportunistic to try and improve this team where we can, responsibly, I think we have a lot of good players here.”
Arnold went on to point to right-hander Brandon Woodruff, left-handers Aaron Ashby and Justin Wilson, and outfielder Tyrone Taylor as potentially impactful “additions” the team could benefit from in the second half, and when prompted to elaborate on what he meant by behaving “responsibly” discussed the importance of balancing the farm system’s longer term outlook and the immediate value of pushing in to win now.
Those comments from Arnold certainly seem to indicate that the Brewers are unlikely to make a major splash by buying at the top of the trade market this month. Such a measured approach to the deadline is fairly typical of Milwaukee in recent years. The club’s biggest deadline acquisition in recent memory was rental infielder Eduardo Escobar during his All Star 2021 campaign. Other recent deadline additions have been smaller, such as the additions of Jordan Lyles and Drew Pomeranz in 2019 or the club’s acquisition of Matt Bush last season.
Of course, the most impactful deal by Milwaukee at the trade deadline in recent years happened last season, when the club shipped closer Josh Hader to the Padres for a four-player package. That deal has had some positives to it, as the club managed to ship outfielder Esteury Ruiz out in a three team deal that brought back catcher William Contreras this past offseason and left-handed prospect Robert Gasser is pitching fairly well at the Triple-A level. Still, the deal is often looked at as having sunk the club’s chances last season as the Brewers finished the season just 29-31 following the trade and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
Arnold suggested a similarly surprising sell-side deal isn’t in the cards this year. When asked if he would consider moving a player such as ace right-hander Corbin Burnes or All Star shortstop Willy Adames, Arnold firmly shut the possibility down, saying, “We’re not looking to move any of those guys. They’re huge parts of our team right now… I mean, I’m sure we’ll get phone calls on these guys, because they’re very good. But that’s not something we’re considering.”
It’s hardly a surprise that the club is disinclined to move either Burnes or Adames, considering neither of the pair has played up to their typical standards this season. Following a three year stretch that saw Burnes post a 2.62 ERA and 2.40 FIP in 428 2/3 innings of work, the 28-year-old righty has put up a rather pedestrian 4.00 ERA in 17 starts this season, only 6% better than league average by measure of ERA+. Meanwhile, Adames is in the midst of the worst offensive season of his career. His .203/.290/.373 slash line, good for a well below average wRC+ of just 81, would be a career worst in all four aforementioned stats if maintained over the rest of the season.
Tied for first place means make some moves.
It sounds like they don’t want to move what will get them a significant return, so don’t expect anything significant.
If there are additions, they’ll be minor. The man said it all when he said getting players back from the IL will be the additions they need. If there is a cavalry, they’re coming from within.
Look at it this way, the only time in recent memory when the Brewers mad an impactful deadline trade was when they pushed the chips in on CC Sabathia. Every other deadline trade since then has been modest and you can see the results. Lately, all they’ve done is shed prospects. Go big or go home is basically what that should be teaching them. I think they stand pat and hope for some of these guys to get either back to career numbers or better in the 2nd half, along with the talent coming back from the IL.
Trading for CC Sabathia had more impact that year than ANY deadline deal for ANY team, since. If that’s the level you’re hoping for, get in line with every other fan.
Yes the Brewers made the playoffs, and lost to the phillies right away, a small market team giving away 6 years of Mike Brantley, 3 very cheap years, was it worth it. Brewers were then mediocre in 2009, 2010. Finally they traded 6 years of Lorenzo Cain, Jake Ordozzi , not to mention Escobar, Jeffries, for 1 1/2 years of Zach Greinke. For an organization crying small market blues . Sure they made playoffs twice, maybe they could of won a world series, Nelson Cruz for Kevin Mench, thanks Doug.
The no move approach?
Thing is last year’s playoffs the better teams got eliminated early. Could have been a great chance for Milwaukee. But they trade a closer at the break. Made no sense. And it destroyed the teams morale. This may be why stearns is all but gone and Arnold is elevated and not willing to make another blunder.
I thought they were in “win-now” mode ??
Hader is certainly propelling the Padres to ever greater heights. Right now San Diego is a mere 11.5 games out of the division and 8.0 games out of the wild card, with a bunch of teams in front of them. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is tied for their division lead and two games out of the wild card.
But MLBTR myth holds that the Hader deal was a great coup for the Padres and a massive blunder for the Brewers. Myth must not be questioned.
The way that team tanked after that trade said it all.
The Brewers 2022 struggles started well before the Hader trade. They had a hot start and by June were a mediocre/under .500 team with and without Hader.
Hader trade was a weak excuse for the players who didn’t get it done. Athletes know it’s a business. Brewers players weren’t more pissed than Seattle when they traded Graveman and Seattle fought hard and was in it until then end.
That’s such a weird way to look at that trade. And even if that is how you want to look at it, San Diego made the playoffs last year and made it to the NLCS while Milwaukee missed the playoffs.
Among other teams I was rooting for the Brewers in 2022 , and didn’t like the Hader deal when it was announced. But the reality was that he wasn’t successfully closing out games and the Brewers were right to get something for him while they could (quality young MLB catchers are in short supply as it’s the most important position on a MLB team…..in a roundabout way the Harder deal is how they got William Contreras who’ll be there for years with a Brewers coaching staff that is excellent at developing catchers),
Hader didn’t get to the Padres and immediately start closing out games. Since SD stole Ruben Niebla from Cleveland to be their pitching coach he’s maximized most of their veteran pitchers. Took him a few weeks to get Hader back in sync. The sad fact is that for whatever reason the Brewers pitching coaches were having no effect on Hader in 2022. Had he stayed the season with the Brewers continuing to pitch as he was and they tried to trade him in the 2022-23 offseason with his contract, they’d have had a problem just getting a team to take him.
As for the Brewers players quitting after that trade – they had multiple chances to get a playoff spot in September and choked time and time again – losing multiple winnable games, and finishing out of the playoffs by one game. At that point they lost me. As for their being in 1st place in the NL Central at this point in the season – someone has to be in 1st pace in that awful division – it doesn’t mean anything.
It doesn’t mean anything to be leading a division? If it happens at the end of the year, you get a ticket to the postseason. And once Milwaukee is in the posteason, their starting rotation might beat anybody in a short series.
The point is that MLBTR keeps emphasizing how San Diego scored with the Hader trade. It’s true that San Diego made the postseason last year despite very poor work from Hader (a godawful 7.31 ERA in 19 games). This year Hader is actually pitching far better but San Diego looks to be out of the division and the wild card.
Moral of the story: getting Hader doesn’t seem to have affected the Padres’ fortunes at all, in either 2022 and 2023. So why was the Hader deal such a coup for the Padres and such a blunder for the Brewers?
CaseyAbell;
Please understand something……
Expansion and the inevitable watering down of all teams by all processional sports leagues in America created a problem in that fans would realize that only a few teams were very good and the rest were shades of so-so (the NBA had been like that for decades). The answer was extended playoffs. Your observation of “Once we get into the playoffs anything can happen” was what the owners and their marketing people were after.
The reality is this – if you look at the major team sports in America (I follow MLB, a little of the NFL and NBA…but no NHL), they all have extended playoffs. Sometimes teams will seemingly come out of nowhere and advance in them. But the reality is this – generally the top teams will get to the championship series / game. The fact that the Nationals won the WS in 2019 or the Phillies got to the WS in 2022 was not a matter of “anything can happen” – it was a matter that both of those teams played the best baseball in their leagues for the last 3 months of the season – and I know because I watched both teams games extensively. But because of slow starts and the lack of the national sports media coverage (they always push the large market teams for clicks / views) – which is how most fans find out about teams other than their own – fans in other cities thought those teams “got hot” or something for 2 weeks, that the playoffs are a “crapshoot”, and why can’t that happen to their team next year if they are one of the 20% of teams that get a playoff spot.
The Brewers are no more going to the WS in 2023 as the Reds, Cubs, Twins, Guardians, or White Sox are. That’s the reality. But MLB sells the sizzle, not the steak…..and many pay steak prices for the sizzle.
@Samuel statistically speaking pro sports talent is at all time highs in every league. The talent pools they are drawing talent from are also far larger statistically. The reach of scouting is also exponentially larger than ever. The notion that they are watered down is just unequivocally false.
Tigers3232;
Agree.
MLB has very few teams that play team baseball and have players with awareness on the field that know how to make the correct plays depending on the game situation.
When employees get paid by statistics then they’ll improve the statistics. That doesn’t necessarily improve the quality of the product. You need to read some of W. Edwards Demings writings – the father of Total Quality Management (TQM). In fact, he warned of allowing the statistics to take over managements analysis.
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P.S. It’s sort of like schools that have been teaching students to do well on tests, so they can hang banners on their walls for taxpayers riding by to see stating that their students finished in the upper ??-percentile in standardized government testing.
Unfortunately, all that proves is the students regurgitated the information fed into them. It doesn’t measure their ability to think and respond in a situation…..which is why older people buy products on the Internet and shop at stores we can check ourselves out in.
@ Samuel I was more referring to demographic statistics for the size of the populace and performance statistics overall not individual player statistics. You know thing such as spin rate, exit velocity, etc… By nearly every metric and measurable the quality of pitching and hitting has improved.
And yes defensively they can measure how quickly players respond, also a measurable and it to has improved.
And you can try and diminishe statistics and mathematics all you want. But the last planet was discovered neatly 200 years ago with statistics and mathematics some 2.75 billion miles away. Stats and math are very powerful when utilized properly.
Long term ramifications are still undetermined. For that year, it hurt the Brewers. That’s not a myth.
Hader STUNK when they traded him; any actual effect of him leaving Milwaukee was most likely emotional, because he’d been there awhile and had lots of friends on the team.
Last year Hader was going through a lot in their personal life with the issues of their baby being born with complications. He and his wife were handling it amazingly. That was going on right before the trade deadline and honestly I think him and the team took it personal and felt it was a bad thing to do to him because it added on to them all. Which honestly the whole team took it personally. Now they all handle it the best they could. But at the same time I think it was a time that fans and players a like felt that business shouldn’t have trumped what people were going through.
Hader’s baby was fine well before he started struggling. His wife had to go online to debunk Heyman’s speculation.
I expect to see a bullpen arm or two, nothing top shelf.
If the Red Sox slip back a bit Justin Turner would be a nice addition. Anything to take ABs away from Tellez and Winker.
The Brewers cannot win if they depend on the bats of Winker & Tellez. Neither deserves to be in the starting lineup
Winker should be released.
I think Tellez will be fine, and Winker this past week is hitting like we expected him to hit when we got him. However, even with that being said, I would love for the Brewers to get Justin Turner from the Red Sox. The guy can flat out it. He may not be the defensive 3rd baseball he once was, but he is at least average to slightly above average defensively at 3rd or 1st. The only issue is Turner’s contract next year. I have no problem if he accepts his $13 million next year, but he has a player option to accept it or reject it. If he rejects it, he still gets $6.7 million of the 13 million even if he doesn’t play for the Brewers next year. Turner would be nuts not to reject the player option. He gets $6.7 not to play for the team next year, and most likely will get over $6 from someone else the following year that puts his numbers past the $13 million mark. If I was the Brewers, I would want Boston to pay at least $3.4 million of Turners contract. Especially if they are asking for anything good in return. He is basically a rental player for this year only, and most likely will not be back next year.
Please, no to Turner in Milwaukee. Although he fits the “typical” player Counsell & the Brewers want to wear the uniform.
Look at the roster changes over the past month and the way the team has been playing slightly better. Coincidence? I think not.
This team is begging for a 1B and DH. This division wouldn’t be close if they had them.
Sal Frelick should be a potentially impactful addition to the squad too. If they could get Yelich a 1B mitt—they could ship Tellez out and use the savings from his contract to bolster the pen with another arm.
They would have to ear Tellez’s contract yhe way he is playing so no savings there.
Nobody is trading for a below-average bat at 1B.
I think the real answer for Yelich has already started to happen, if only sporadically…use him as the (primary) DH going forward. He can still play LF on occasion to give other regulars a day of DH duties. With the OF’ers we have in the system it solves 2 problems. Not to mention reduces the wear and tear on him playing defense every game.
It’s depressing that they can’t find anyone to succeed at 1B for more than a year. Whether it’s Rowdy struggling after a decent year, or their favored musical chairs approach (for 3B too basically) by plugging in a new guy year after year.
That said, I haven’t seen a decent solution/trade proposal I think will really increase our chances this year. There’s not much on the 1B market to move the needle, Turner feels like an enormous expense (assuming he can be had) who will bolt after the season, and there are too many holes to fill without costing a ton of prospects at all levels.
As for the mention of ‘our starters are better than anyone if we meet in the playoffs’…I’m not necessarily disagreeing, but where’s the guarantee we’d get IN, or everyone will be healthy in October? Nevermind you still have to score runs to win..and we ain’t gonna be facing the Pirates staff every series.
If we try to improve our current mediocre team, it would risk us not being able to field future mediocre teams!
Mediocrity has its positives.
Buying means weakening an already mediocre farm system. Selling means taking pennies on the dollar for most of their hitters.
The correct approach is to hope for internal improvements and rework the team’s offensive approach in the off-season with a series of new hires.
Sometimes the only viable approach is to recoup as much lost value as possible. The Tigers are in a very similar position, albeit with injured youngsters and prospects. Naturally fans don’t like hearing that reality.
Mediocre farm system? Have you not been paying attention? The Brewers have 4 top 100 prospects, and thats with subtracting Mitchell, Weimer and Turang due to prospect eligibility. Then throw in Black, Lara and some surprisingly well performing pitchers (Gasser, Rodriguez, Jimenez, Rudy, Jarvis etc.) and thats a top 10 farm system.
Most have the farm system ranked around the middle of the MLB pack.
There isn’t much the Brewers can do. Trading away hitters would mean selling low and buying means weakening an already mediocre farm system. Their only option is to trade a reliever for lottery tickets and we all saw how that worked out last year.
Mediocre farm system? Have you not been paying attention? The Brewers have 4 top 100 prospects, and thats with subtracting Mitchell, Weimer and Turang due to prospect eligibility. Then throw in Black, Lara and some surprisingly well performing pitchers (Gasser, Rodriguez, Jimenez, Rudy, Jarvis etc.) and thats a top 10 farm system.
I know that you know better. In the NL alone the Mets, Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers, Rockies and Diamondbacks all have higher ranked systems. Besides, Turang and Weimer have not hit since their call ups.
Can’t really overhaul the entire offense so not sure they can do much besides get a reliever to stabilize the final pen spot.
The Brewers will let you have Rowdy Tellez for four sticks, a shiny rock and a bag of sideline chalk!!!! Come on!!!!
They’re content just being in the playoff race. They won’t make any difference making moves. Owner is too cheap. It’s a loser franchise
They’re content just being in the playoff race. They won’t make any difference making moves. Owner is cheap. It’s a loser franchise.
Adames is hitting .202.
He needs to go.
Adames isn’t the issue.