The Guardians’ rotation has been ravaged by injury this season, with right-handers Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale and Cal Quantrill all spending significant time on the injured list. They’ve already added Noah Syndergaard to help patch things over. Civale is healthy and pitching well right now, however, and the Guardians have at least pondered the possibility of selling high on him if it means acquiring a controllable young hitter, reports Zack Meisel of The Athletic. Cleveland has little appetite to trade prospects for a rental acquisition at this point, Meisel further notes.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked at Civale’s trade candidacy two weeks ago, outlining the reasons he’d draw interest (strong results, affordable $2.6MM salary, two-plus seasons of club control remaining) and the reasons the Guardians could be reluctant to move the 28-year-old righty (an otherwise young rotation with workload concerns, injuries to other key starters, a desire to remain competitive in a weak AL Central, and that remaining club control that piques others’ interest). Little has changed in the equation since Anthony wrote that piece, perhaps with the exception of Civale’s ERA, which has continued to drop. Civale has taken the ball four times since that was written, and he’s posted a 1.85 ERA in 24 1/3 frames — dropping his season-long ERA from 2.56 to a stellar 2.34.
There are reasons to be skeptical of Civale’s ability to continue at quite such a strong pace. His career-low 19% strikeout rate is below the league average, and both his .242 average on balls in play and 82.7% strand rate seem bound to regress. He entered the season with respective marks of .281 and 72.3% in those areas. He’s also seen just 5.6% of his fly-balls turn into home runs, which is less than half the 12.5% league average and the 14% mark he carried into the current season.
Even when factoring for some expected regression, however, Civale is still a quality big league pitcher. He’s logged 430 innings in his career and touts a 3.77 ERA. Civale has regularly showed strong command, which has helped him limit hard contact at better-than-average levels. There are durability concerns, as he’s never reached 130 innings in a Major League season and never topped the combined 164 2/3 innings he pitched in the minors back in 2017 — his first full professional season. Civale has been on the minor league and big league injured list with a variety of injuries, including a lat strain, shoulder tightness, a finger sprain, a wrist sprain, forearm inflammation and, most recently, an oblique strain. It’s a lengthy list, but also one that notably does not include any surgeries.
Looking around the league, there’s no shortage of contenders seeking starting pitching — particularly affordable arms with multiple years of club control remaining. Not all of those clubs, however, are in position to deal a big league bat with multiple years of control remaining himself. Two weeks ago, Anthony listed both the D-backs and Orioles as teams brimming with young position players who could make such a swap. Both remain logical fits, as do the Cardinals and the Reds, to name a couple more.
Cleveland has a wealth of pitching talent, with rookies Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams currently finding success in the rotation. Bieber, who might’ve been a trade candidate this month were it not for a right elbow injury that sent him to the 60-day IL, is controlled through the 2024 season. He’s due a raise on this year’s $10MM salary, however, and could potentially be moved over the winter. Triston McKenzie (through 2026), Cal Quantrill (through 2025) and Peyton Battenfield (through 2029) all have multiple years of club control remaining beyond the current season. Trades of Civale and/or (in the offseason) Bieber could potentially yield additional pitching talent, and the Guards have numerous other yet-to-debut prospects, including Joey Cantillo, Tanner Burns and the again-injured Daniel Espino.
There you go Cardinals. Give ‘em Flaherty and Dylan Carlson. Should be a trade that would work well for the needs of both teams.
Do u even baseball bra
What would you propose brassiere?
Reds and Orioles should be interested. It’s not like he’s a ace but young controllable aces aren’t usually readily available
Os do need pitching but not a match? Guards priority is looking for proven league level hitters for this season not getting prospects for the future. Yes? Only O that possibly fit this want could be Mountcastle but he’s got that vertigo issue and is a 1st baseman.
Urius Frazier mateo???
Stowers would be a guy they could plug right into their lineup who has already shown the ability to hit Major League pitching.
Urius mateo Frazier???
Sure, Cleveland wants junk back in return, particularly middle infielders which they already have stacked ten deep.
The Orioles will always be a fit for whatever player they want because they have the number one farm system in bb.
Spare parts like Stowers, Urias, etc is not what the Guardians are looking for. Cleveland does not need another left-handed hitting outfielder. Frazier is a rental. Cleveland is looking for controllable players. It is going to take MLB ready strong prospects to get Civale, not spare parts.
They won’t get Civale offering spare parts which the Guardians already have an abundance. It’ll take one of Kjerstad, Coby, Norby plus a ranked pitching prospect to get Cleveland’s attention.
yeah just offer some junk and hope for the best right?
Stowers could be characterized as a spare part for the Orioles due to the presence of Hays, Mullins, Santander, Hicks, O’Hearn, and Cowser, but he’d probably be the fourth or fifth best hitter on the Guardians almost immediately. Him and Connor Norby would probably be pretty close to fair value.
Os Urias and Frazier r hitters the Os need for their own playoff run. And, I’m a Mateo fan offensively. He’s not prolific but he can singlehandedly steal a victory for the Birds because of his base running prowess .
I can’t see Mike Elias trading Kjerstad or Mayo for someone like Civale, but Norby would definitely be in play I would think. That seems like a pretty fair starting point to build a package around.
I’d give them Carlson and flaterty and edman
That would work, but the Cardinals won’t do it.
Burslson or Gomez or their first baseman in triple A
The Cards need pitching! That should be their focus.
That’s pretty much the model STL is trying to achieve. Carlson, Yepez and Flaherty get that done I think. Mo is stupid if he doesn’t pull that trigger. Civale is exactly what they’re looking for. Only thing better would be Kirby or Gilbert
Nope. Not enough team control for the Guards.
Verdugo + for him
Verdugo and Joely Rodriguez
That doesn’t complete the trade, I just want him off the roster and Bloom isn’t going to eat the $2 mil he wasted on Rodriguez
Add Bobby D who I believe the team erred in not showcasing him in the majors. After the poor last two seasons, the needed to rebuild his value before trading him. Obviously, another flop lowers the value further but he’s already scraping the pavement and truthfully, I still believe he can develop into a productive player.
Hate to see them trade Civale but if they can get a good bat that’s signed for a while then I get the reasoning
Cleveland_spider: For a minute I thought you said “for a good bat that’s signed…” I didn’t that’s part of a trade, to bring a signed bat. Just kidding.
Reds should go get this guy who has some controllable years. They have prospects to spare. But they won’t.
I’d be happy with Civale for Fraley or CES. Solves both teams’ problems
Phillies. Falter, Muzziotti, Jaydenn Estanista, Tommy McCollum, for Civale.
Who?
Brian’s: For what team?
WTAM 1100, flagship station in Cleveland is reporting a deal could come together quickly with Civale and Myles Straw headed to the Cubs in exchange for Kevin Alcantara, Ian Happ, and Drew Smyly.
I don’t think that will happen. We don’t need a light-hitting centerfielder and we have PCA on the way for 2024. Plus, they’d be selling low on Happ, who is having an off-year. I’d love Civale but not moving Kevin Alcantara.
Why would Cleveland do that …
With all due respect, this sounds like compete BS. Which host said this on-air?
That iss the type of deal I could see Cleveland going for.. they get a much needed bat that is under contract for a few years and a replacement rotation arm for the rest 2023.
I cannot imagine the Cubs offering that type of deal though.
Reds should make a push for him.
ERA: 2.34
FIP: 3.55
Guy’s getting lucky and help from the defense. If you’re trading for him, either have a strong defense or assume he’s going to give up 3.5 runs per game. Guy’s not even striking out anyone with a 6.8k/9 his lowest in his short career.
If the return for him is light, why not trade but don’t spend too much.
I don’t think anyone is expecting to get a 2.34 ERA when you trade for Civale. Even getting a controllable starter who can put up a 3.55 will end up costing a good amount of talent.
Old York, What is your point? He’s still a lot better than what’s available. Soooooooooooooooo if you want him, you’re going to give up more than what you think you should… The demand is greater than the supply.
@the great bambi
I wouldn’t give up much for him so probably wouldn’t trade for him. I doubt he gets traded as the asking amount would be excessive for an overrated pitcher.
considering civale is pitching better than pablo lopez has, yes even though they have differing peripherals, guardians likely are looking for a luiz arraez-type of impact bat. would be interesting to see them find a deal they like.
pohle: Do you think the Marlins – who currently have the second WC spot – would trade a .377 hitter? Twins really got fleeced on that one.
@pohle
Good luck with that. Player development isn’t focused on guys who can hit the ball. They still focus on 3-true outcomes and we pay the guys for that.
Cleveland doesn’t need a pitcher back, everyone is offering pitchers back, is Civale signed beyond this year ? If so as a Mets fan I would trade Vientos and maybe 1 of the SS that we drafted in this years draft.
Tyler oneill and Gallegos can start packing their bags for Cleveland
O”Neil has little to no trade value. He is a short term asset, always injured, and just not very good.
Danbino – Mo already said he’s not trading O’Neil lol… Not sure why tho
Because he’s got no value right now unfortunately. I’d tell them to take their pick of Carlson, oneill, DeJong, flaherty and Gallegos-any 3 they want
Dambino, there is not three players there that Cleveland would want.
There you go Reds. Give ‘em Senzel, Casali and Weaver. Should be a better trade.
Lol.
That offer might not even be good enough to get Civale’s dog
Seeing as they just dealt their starting SS for Thor, maybe DeJong fits here too
Amed was traded because Cleveland has a glut of middle infielders.
Guardians should be soft selling. They are not strong enough for a run right now. Looking to 2024 is a good idea rather than squandering more opportunities like they have in the past by overvaluing guys like Nolan Jones, Franmil Reyes and others. Take a step back (deal Civale), and take two steps forward next year. Really load up for 2024.
Jones is popping off in Colorado rn bruh
Jones was a highly-touted prospect for the Guardians. Refused to deal him with Ramirez ahead of him and when they needed more firepower.
You stated he was overvalued and I said he was performing. Now you’re telling me he was highly touted? I mean I’m aware of that but you’re contradicting yourself
I agree they should be listening on Civale.. but they need to figure out who is going to pitch the rest of the 2023 season.
No telling if/when Bieber/McKenzie/Quant will be back in 2023.
If they aren’t careful, they could end up putting too much on young guys like Williams/Bibee/Allen or torching their bullpen and paying the process in 2024 and beyond.
Williams/Bibee/Allen will all be on innings restrictions and shut down at some point this year.
Yes, because the future is always guaranteed. Predictable.
If this year is any indication, and given the volatility of young players (and overpriced free agents), instead of dealing Civale when tied for the division lead and every other starting pitcher they have as a question mark or bumping up against innings limits, CLE should be looking for cheap rentals in the SP market to bolster a run. Teams like the Mets, Padres, and Cardinals would kill to be in CLE’s position and wouldn’t be embarrassed by the opportunity CLE has, why should we?
Every shot at a divisional race and the postseason should be looked at as a learning opportunity for one of the youngest teams in the game, not dismissed by cold calculus that says, ah, we’re not going anywhere anyway, so just trade away a guy you may very well need next year as much as anyone else. And they damn well need him this year too.
And it’s also pretty ridiculous not to pass up the opportunity to give the shiv to a Twins team on the precipice of blowing things up organizationally if they fail this year. Unlike Twins fans, I regard the regime in place as formidable (much moreso than any other team in the division) and would love the ownership there to respond to the demands of the mob by cleaning house and starting over with a new front office and manager/coaches. That kind of overreaction should allow CLE the runway to continue to be competitive in the division and develop its young rotation (and sort out the lineup) without a lot of urgency or worry that Minnesota will take off, as I believe they are capable of if a little patience is exhibited. Alas, the Twins are burdened by the desperate need to erase the 0-17 postseason skein they are on which accounts for their ill-advised forays at the deadline last year. Heads will roll if MIN loses to the little engine that could once again. As good a reason as any for CLE to hold onto Civale and prudently continue its quest for another division title.
My comment is directed to “It’s happening” and others who think it’s wise to bag on 2023 because 2024 is so rosy. No one knows that. The AL is as wide open right this minute as it will ever be, and while CLE may not be perfectly situated to take advantage of that, bagging on the first three playoff games at home is silly. I’ll be glad to play anyone in that scenario and take my chances. You think Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor are busting their butts because the aren’t interested in giving it a go?
The AL is wide open for any team that isn’t in the AL Central. Your Guardians have no shot, and they are a bottom half-calibre team in the American League. The mere fact you do not understand that tells us exactly who we are dealing with here.
Instead of pulling out of mediocrity, you want to remain mediocre with the “shot” of getting hot in October. It’s not happening, excuse the pun. You need to get better. How do you do that? By take a step back in 2023 to take two steps forward in 2024. If you are confident in the regime to do this, then you should be on-board with it.
Instead you want this mediocre Guardians team to yield mediocre results because you have some longshot prayer request that will never be fulfilled. Don’t shoot the messenger. I think the Guardians could be dangerous if the organization plays their cards right by performing a soft sell.
Cleveland should be looking to reset for next year.
its_happening: Franmil was very good for awhile. Then, just like that, he lost it. He still got an opportunity with a couple of teams but he just can’t hit anymore. Maybe he can find a hitting school like Keuchel found a pitching school.
Except that in 2021 the Guardians were not good. They had an opportunity to deal Reyes at his peak while playing around .500 ball. He was a total trade candidate. This isn’t some crystal ball; the situation at the time dictated it.
I could definitely see Civale being the rotation piece that the Orioles go out and get. He’s not an ace or anything, but he has a couple of years of control left and the Orioles have young, controllable hitters to spare that Cleveland would likely have interest in. Maybe something like Connor Norby and Dylan Beavers?
King Flinch: I just saw Civale pitch Sunday. He looked great and pitched a shut out. Then again, it was against the White Sox.
Orioles could deff get this done with say a urius norby and hall
Cleveland has no need for Urias.
Yes, that would get it done.
I don’t understand why the article says there are signs that Civale will regress. He dropped his ERA to 2.34. only 5.6% of the fly balls he’s allowed have gone for HRs, less than half the league avg. But he’ll regress because he gives up a low amount of hard contact, which is a ridiculous stat. Whether a batter hits a rocket for a base hit or hits a Texas Leaguer over the ss’s head, a hit is a hit. Velocity is a fun statistic but it means nothing. Despite his “upcoming regression”, I”d take Civale in a heart beat.
Watching him pitch lately, his control is above average, especially the curveball. He’s making better use of pitch selection. This may be his peak value, so trading him might be a good idea. That once amazing 2016 draft isn’t panning out the way anyone hoped. The top two hitters are playing elsewhere and the three rotation mainstays are injured, might be traded, and wallowing in AAA.
Given the Guardians pitching depth and that Civale has shut down the likes of Kansas City, capitalize on this wave. Get what you can for him.
Cleveland wants a controllable outfielder. Cards have one. Cleveland wants infield veteran depth. Cardinals have that too. Cleveland has a wealth of pitching prospects that the Cardinals have stated they are desiring. It’s also a team that the Cards have worked with in the past.
Cleveland has absolutely no need for veteran infield depth. They have a wealth of ready or near ready middle infield players that need playing time.
Amazing, isn’t it, how fans of other teams think CLE actually opened up a massive hole on the diamond by trading its starting shortstop. Another example of why you should actually dig a a little before making trade proposals that offload your flotsam and jetsam. We may be in Cleveland, but we didn’t just fall off a turnip truck.
All we need to do is go to BTV, look up deals involving the Guardians and laugh at every Guardian fan’s complaints. You have young talent at middle infield with big question marks as to whether they can perform at the big league level. All the more reason a soft sell deadline is appropriate; to allow Freeman and Arias to get playing time and develop for next year.
Ready for .680 OPS? Yes that is true.
Cle would be wise to package Straw in any deal with Civale. He’s playing his way out of the starting lineup. Maybe tacking him on makes some of these unreasonable trade offers in the comments more palatable.
I like the idea, but he’s got what 3 more years on that contract? I don’t think we’ll get that lucky.
If Cleveland were to trade him they’d need a rental expiring starting pitcher contract and two position players, one a ++ mlb ready hitter and the other a + AA prospect from the top 25.
I wouldn’t trade for him. He’s really not that good.
Luckily, you don’t make the decisions
Maybe I do.
Well he moved… Looks like you weren’t consulted.
Maybe I was consulted by Cleveland.
Damnit. Ok you win this round
Shhhh!
Civale is as good as he’s going to get at this time. Trade him and get back a vet starter for the rest of the year, an OF with some pop and a BP arm. Civale gets hurt every year so while he’s hot…
In re Civale-Straw for Happ-Smyly-Alcantara.
As a Cleveland fan, why I like it:
For three years I’ve wanted Ian Happ.
Why I dont like it:
1)Teams trade contracts, not players. Basically, the heart of the deal is two years of Civale at about $12 mil for three years of Happ at $62 mil. The numbers don’t work for Cleveland, whose payroll sits at about $98 mil. Adding Happs $21 mil to what is already on the books for 2024 (-Straw) would put Cleveland at around $82 mil…before some big arby raises for Naylor, Bieber, and McKenzie.
2) If the Cleveland FO is in it to win it, Smyly is a poor substitute for Civale. Happ would certainly a plus, but Cleveland would be counting on Bibee, Allen, Smyly, and Thor. Williams is already nearing his workload limit. Thor is hardly a sure thing.
Cleveland would be hoping that Bieber (elbow), McKenzie (elbow), and Quantrill return, let alone return in productive form. You know that if you wish in one hand and crap in the other which one fills up first.
3) The Indians/Guardians should by now have had their fill of tall, athletic prospects with long swings and a demonstrated inability to consistently make contact. The fact that Alcantara is already burning up an option without even seeing AA makes him less valuable.
4) Looking at 2024, the Guardians have enough pitching on paper, but not in probability. They don’t even know if McKenzie will be able to pitch effectively, if at all, before 2025. Quantrills shoulder has been a problem for over a year. And who knows about Bieber. Without Civale, there is no way that Cleveland goes into the off season counting on the rotation to be a strong point.
Although Happ is a fairly big name, and a player I’d love to see in a Guardians uniform, I dont think this trade is nearly enough for Cleveland.
“Civale has been on the minor league and big league injured list with a variety of injuries, including a lat strain, shoulder tightness, a finger sprain, a wrist sprain, forearm inflammation, and most recently, an oblique strain.”
What a travesty of a sentence, but what else is new from Adams? The comma has to go either before “and” or not be there at all. It CANNOT be after “and” because it cannot go before most recently. There is no reason to divide up the sentence like this. When will this idiot learn how to use a comma properly?