This week, we look at prospects who are among the top minor-league performers — a few of whom have struggled lately. Let’s skip Jackson Holliday.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 450 PA, 20 HR, 4 SB, .283/.393/.560
While Mayo’s seasonal line is impressive, he’s scuffled to a .205/.291/.420 triple-slash in 103 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s still impacting the ball with Major League-caliber exit velocities. The big difference between Double-A and Triple-A is BABIP. This isn’t a write-it-off-as-luck situation. Mayo makes a lot of pulled, fly ball contact. He’s the sort of hitter who might be prone to low BABIPs in the Majors. He’s always been a high-BABIP guy in the minors which is actually a classic sign that the hitter isn’t being challenged at the level. Perhaps Mayo is finally feeling some pain. He’ll likely make a couple small adjustments and resume hitting at an above-average level. We might witness similar growing pains when he’s eventually summoned to the Majors.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B, CIN (MLB)
91 PA, 3 HR, .250/.308/.381
Speaking of growing pains, Encarnacion-Strand has reverted to his previous poor discipline in his first taste of the Majors. While his average contact is impressively firm, he’s not getting to the top end of his power range – at least not yet. Presently, he’s both strikeout and fly ball prone. The fly balls aren’t as much a concern as they are with most prospects – it’s not called Great American Smallpark without reason. A power barrage awaits ahead for CES. In the meantime, we’re also getting a good look at the downside for this probably-volatile slugger. He produced a 1.042 OPS at Triple-A.
Drew Thorpe, 22, SP, NYY (AA)
(A+/AA) 117 IP, 11.31 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, 2.62 ERA
The Yankees have an obnoxious habit of developing promising-looking pitchers who struggle to make the transition between the minors and Majors. Thorpe is on pace to debut next season. In my opinion, he should rank higher on prospects lists. The rub is his velocity. He’s currently a soft-tossing southpaw with a “projectable frame.” In other words, scouts think he can add velocity. Thorpe is a command artist with a plus changeup and a slider he locates with ease. Even if the velocity never comes, he’ll give hitters fits as a reliever. Nearly all of the above stats were accrued in High-A.
Chase Hampton, 22, SP, NYY (AA)
95.2 IP, 12.51 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 3.86 ERA
Evaluators prefer Hampton to Thorpe because he more closely resembles the classic workhorse. He’s already pushing for Top 50 prospect status on Baseball America’s list. Hampton has a five-pitch repertoire featuring four average or better offerings and a platoon-changeup. He’s able to use his four-seam, cutter, or slider as his primary pitch, depending on the matchup. His curve offers a change of pace for right-handed hitters, and he commands everything well. Hampton has met some challenges in Double-A (4.90 ERA, 4.02 xFIP). It’s possible he’s running out of steam in his first full professional season.
Junior Caminero, 20, 3B/SS, TBR (AA)
(A+/AA) 400 PA, 21 HR, 4 SB, .322/.380/.565
Caminero draws heavy hype among the fantasy prospect ranking crowd for his precocious power output. Traditional evaluators are slowly approaching the same level of excitement. Baseball America ranks him fifth in the league. The missing ingredient is plate discipline, but he’s shown modest signs of improvement at Double-A. Personally, I tend to be skeptical of this profile until I see it perform in the Majors. The jump from Triple-A to the Majors is particularly large for hitters who either lack discipline or feature a high whiff rate. Caminero checks both boxes. So did Fernando Tatis Jr. That’s not to say they’re similar athletes, only that an expectedly “tough” transition can be easier for some players than others.
In any event, don’t be surprised if Caminero stalls out for a few years before finding his stride in the Majors. The Rays have a knack for putting their players in situations where they thrive. See their development of Josh Lowe.
Three More
Abimelec Ortiz, TEX (21): One of the top-performing breakout power hitters, Ortiz is a slow-footed, left-handed first baseman who takes massive hacks. He’s produced 26 home runs in 350 plate appearances on the season, mostly at High-A. He profiles as a future 30-homer slugger with a strikeout problem.
Heston Kjerstad, BAL (24): A late-bloomer by today’s heady standards (and due to missed time), Kjerstad is posting MLB-caliber exit velocities in Triple-A along with a .383 BABIP. This is a function of approach, not luck. Even so, we usually see these line-drive boppers lose their BABIP fuel upon matriculating. Kjerstad projects as a league-average corner outfielder.
Emmanuel Rodriguez, MIN (20): Expected to eventually move from center field, Rodriguez has more than enough bat to survive in an outfield corner. He’s a discipline-forward slugger who verges on passivity. He’s walked in more than 20 percent of plate appearances as a professional. He’ll need to learn more selective aggression against higher-quality pitchers.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
CES will be all right. He has a shorter swing than Elly, who is really strikeout prone because of that loooong swing, plus he is finding out big league pitchers have better breaking stuff.
McLain and Steer may be the better pure hitters of the bunch. The other two have more power, but have to make contact.
I think that will work out well for the Reds. You can survive a guy or two that K’s a lot if the rest of the team is getting on base and moving runners along.
I’m confident that any team using Mayo will beat the spread.
You’re really spreading it on thick with that take.
Do you trade your Mayo to a team with Jake Burger or with David Fry ?
I know there are some questions about him sticking at 3rd vs a move to either 1B or RF potentially, but Coby Mayo = Austin Riley.
Jackson Holliday must be doing fine. He missed this post.
A combined .342 / .461 / .537 / .998 at 3 levels this year (so far).
A, A+, AA.
Should be up to the majors sometime in 2024 if he’s not injured.
Drew Thorpe is right-handed. He’s also 6′ 4″ and was drafted out of college. Where the hell did you get your information on this guy?
I think they might be confusing Thorpe with Brock Selvidge
@Ronk- I was thinking Barclay while reading the blurb.
No he’s right. It’s under Yankees top prospects on mlb.com.
mlb.com/prospects/yankees/drew-thorpe-689672
Yea, I’ll put in a retraction next week and correct it
I’ve come to the conclusion that Elias is the best GM on baseball. Not just because of this year. Look at the orioles. ! In a few short seasons they’ve gone from a hundred loss team to the second best team in mlb. How did they pass everyone ? Look at the roster. Mullins Santander Hayes Mountcastle Urias and even Mateo , they are key players on a good team. But they were all there for the 100 losses. Now they’ve added some prospects. Henderson Rutschman Rodrigues etc. Still what did Elias do. ? He built around the guys who were losing 100 games. They are still there and the core He recognized they were good. Kept them all. Built around them. Kremer Wells Bradish too. Patience patience patience. Most teams just keep flipping guys. Trust. Chemistry of the team was never really broken up. Now they have a slew of guys coming. Really best job of GMing this decade. Ability to recognize what you have and let them play. Patience. This team is winning with basically the same names and core that was losing 100 games.
Well said.
And not only is Elias doing this with a foundation of players that were there when things were bleak, but several are from the previous FO. Mullins, Santander, Bautista, Hays, Mountcastle, Rodriguez, DL Hall ….
When he starts his work day, the man checks his ego at the front door of the OPACY warehouse.
Extremely well said! Elias doesn’t seem to miss on many high draft picks. To state that Kjerstad will be a league average corner outfielder might turn out to be a slight to major error on this writer’s part!
Will be an interesting offseason for Baltimore. Lots of talent, what to do with it and what direction to take. Elias took heat for Kjerstad draft pick, and suddenly it looks promising.
Casey Hampton will likely be the most requested in trade talks in the off-season, and that doesn’t mean he’ll be dealt. Hopefully the Yankees land a couple of lefthanded bats in the off-season via free agency or trade. The Yankees will have to decide who they wanna keep for the long haul. It will likely either be Spencer Jones or Jasson Dominguez, or they could always keep both.
You are already trying to deal some of your top prospects? Your team is awful. You have a dominant right-handed hitting lineup in a park extremely favorable to left-handed bats.
They should deal with Cleveland…..
They have too many LH bats, and their RH hitters (other than Rameriz when he switch hits) are so bad …..
Deal them and load up the next few years while Cole and Judge are still in their prime. Make a run.
They all look like busts. Next!
@Old York- They all look like busts… how the heck do you know? Exactly you don’t!
@Captain-Judge99
Because they are busts. Might get a few years out of them but they’ll be DFA’d in a few years.
I’ll wait for the next Can’t Miss prospects being touted as the second coming of Babe Ruth.
Mayo’s line at the same age looks remarkably similar to Junior Caminero. But Mayo’s at AA/AAA and Caminero is A+/AA.
Mayo is also a year and a half older than Caminero.
You’re right. He is. That’s matters. I swear they changed Mayo’s age from when I posted that though! It did say both were 20.
Dang, Brad. Smallpark.
It’s true, though.
Encarnacion-Strand. He good. Unless he comes to bat with two out and runners on the corners.
If you’re looking for a bat to comp Junior Caminero to, look at Bo Bichette. Below are Junior Caminero’s career MiLB numbers with him in AA during his age 19 season and Bo Bichette’s MiLB numbers through his age 20 season in AA..
.314/.381 /.537/.919, BB%: 8.8%, K%: 18.6%, ISO: .223, wRC+: 146
.328/.385/.521/.906, BB%: 8.8%, K%: 18.2%, ISO: .193, wRC+: 148
Big believer in E-Rod, has power and eye, the average will come.