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Big Hype Prospects

Big Hype Prospects: Manzardo, Tiedemann, Jobe, Scott, DeLauter

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The Arizona Fall League has concluded, putting a final wrap on the 2023 season. The Surprise Saguaros took home the hardware – not that that means anything to most readers. Jakob Marsee managed to sneak by Offensive Player of the Year James Triantos for the top OPS and MVP honors. Liam Hicks took home the batting title. Twin sluggers Kala’i Rosario and Aaron Sabato shared the home run title. Ricky Tiedemann won the AFL Pitcher of the Year award over Davis Daniel. Additional awards can be viewed here.

Listed stats are from the AFL.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE
101 PA, 6 HR, .272/.340/.565

Manzardo finished the campaign on a strong note. He reached base three times in the championship game and homered twice in the semi-final while leading a nine-run comeback. The 2023 season represented a small step back in Manzardo’s prospect status. Due to an extreme fly ball approach, he struggled to reach base on balls in play. While no slouch in the power department, his exit velocities hovered around league average. His peripherals show evidence of a post-trade adjustment, although I do not know the specifics of that adjustment. We might be looking at a small sample quirk.

Ricky Tiedemann, 21, SP, TOR
18 IP, 12 H, 8 BB, 23 K, 2.50 ERA

After missing a large chunk of the 2023 season, Tiedemann was on hand in Arizona for just four starts. He made the most of them, showing enough to take home a closely-contested award. Tiedemann spent most of his active time at Double-A where he made 11 starts totaling just 32 innings. He missed bats with ease but struggled at times with command – an issue which followed him to the Fall League. He features a repertoire of three plus offerings including a mid-90s fastball, a sweeper, and a changeup.

Jackson Jobe, 21, P, DET
15.2 IP, 14 H, 5 BB, 19 K, 2.87 ERA

The next-highest profile pitching prospect in fall ball, Jobe nearly matched Tiedemann over his four-start run. Jobe works with a deep repertoire of at least five average or better offerings. He’s credited with a head for pitching including a professional-level feel for incorporating analytic analysis into his development. After tasting one start at Double-A this season, he’s on track for a Major League promotion sometime in 2024.

Victor Scott, 22, OF, STL
96 PA, 3 HR, 18 SB, .286/.388/.417

A speedy left-handed hitter, Scott turned heads in the AFL via an advanced feel for contact. He was one of only a handful of hitters who recorded more walks than strikeouts. Thought he has posted above average batting lines throughout his brief minor league tenure, scouts complain of a low-impact swing that might prove exploitable against upper-level pitching. Scott’s path to the Majors likely looks something like Johan Rojas – a defense-first profile with the speed and contact chops necessary to post an empty batting average.

Chase DeLauter, 22, OF, CLE
101 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .299/.385/.529

DeLauter is my pick for most intriguing player to participate in the AFL. His swing is an acquired taste – at first visually disturbing, but then it grows on you. Like Scott, DeLauter recorded more walks than strikeouts, a feat that fits right in with the Guardians hitting ethos. He also led the league in RBI. He will have an opportunity to approach the Majors next season, but he needs to prove he can get to power outcomes more consistently in order to get the call.

Three More

Oliver Dunn, PHI (26): A non-prospect coming off a strong Double-A campaign, Dunn likely played his way onto a 40-man roster this fall. He’s Rule 5 eligible so the Phillies will have to roster him or prepare to watch him be drafted. Dunn posted a 1.071 OPS – fourth-best in the league to go with 12 extra-base hits and 12 steals in 88 plate appearances.

Caleb Durbin, NYY (23): An Altuve-scale second baseman, Durbin led the AFL with 21 steals in 23 attempts. He also posted a 1.044 OPS, good for sixth-best in the league. He even delivered a trio of home runs to go with nine doubles and a triple in 99 plate appearances. He recorded twice as many walks as strikeouts. Durbin was arguably the most dynamic offensive performer in the AFL.

Damiano Palmegiani, TOR (23): Palmegiani was already ticketed for a role with the 2024 Blue Jays. With six home runs and 21 RBI in 92 plate appearances, he was one of the top-performing power hitters in the league. Pending offseason activity, he’s primed to compete for an Opening Day assignment.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Nett, Montgomery, Teodo, Triantos, Sabato

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Our AFL coverage continues. The schedule is winding down. The Fall Stars game was played on Sunday. The two-game postseason will take place next Friday and Saturday. James Triantos and Jakob Marsee continue to battle for top batter status. Presently, Triantos has the edge. On the pitching side, Davis Daniel has the best claim to the top performance as a starter. Reliever Emiliano Teodo has 11 scoreless innings with 19 strikeouts with only three hits and four walks allowed.

Listed stats are from the AFL. To emphasize, this is AFL coverage.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Braden Nett, 21, SP, SDP
17.1 IP, 21 K, 13 BB, 4.67 ERA

Though he doesn’t have the shiniest stats, Nett posted an encouraging AFL as detailed by Baseball America. An undrafted pitcher, Nett has seen his velocity approach triple-digits as a starter, complemented by visually impressive secondary offerings. Command eludes Nett – an issue dating back to his pre-draft days. However, he showed strides in attacking the strike zone during this fall session. If he’s able to build upon his success next season, he’ll find his way into top prospect conversations. There’s considerable relief risk here if his command doesn’t continue on an upward trajectory.

Colson Montgomery, 21, SS, CWS
84 PA, 3 HR, .244/.302/.423

The second-best Montgomery in the AFL by the numbers, Colson is low-key divisive among evaluators. None that I’ve contacted doubt he has a Major League future. Most see as a blue-chip regular. Where the arguments begin is the type of regular. Some see him as a core performer. While they acknowledge the upside, they’re skeptical Montgomery will reach it. The doubters point to an impending move to third base where there will be more pressure on his bat. Advocates are confident he can support a move down the defensive spectrum. His exit velocities suggest he’s a small tweak or epiphany away from unlocking more extra-base outcomes.

Montgomery took home MVP honors in the Fall Stars game. He went 2-for-2 with a run and an RBI.

Emiliano Teodo, 22, P, TEX
11 IP, 19 K, 4 BB, 0.00 ERA

The Rangers have developed Teodo as a starter, but his future appears to be in the bullpen. Though listed at 6’ 1’’, one evaluator I contacted believes he’s several inches shorter. That’s backed by the FanGraphs crew – they describe him as “lilliputian.” His usage – and success – in the AFL points to an imminent role shift. As a starter, he touched upper-90s. He has the look of an on-meta power arm who relies on effectively wild heaters and hammer curves.

James Triantos, 20, 2B/3B, CHC
92 PA, 3 HR, 9 SB, .423/.505/.700

The hits, triples, and OPS leader of the AFL, Triantos has long appeared on scouts’ breakout lists. The results haven’t really stood out in full season leagues where he’s been more solid than exceptional. The Cubs are developing him as a super utility type including the odd game in center field. He focused on third base in 2022 and second base this year. He’ll spend 2024 in the upper minors where we all eagerly await to see if his power continues to develop. Triantos is a high-probability Major Leaguer. His future role remains open for debate.

Aaron Sabato, 24, 1B, MIN
74 PA, 7 HR, .215/.320/.585

A classic TTO slugger, Sabato has bashed his way to a share of the AFL home run lead along with fellow Twin Kala’i Rosario. Sabato works counts and routinely runs over-30 percent strikeout rates. In fact, he’s done so at every level. The reward for all those whiffs is some of the most impressive exit velocities in professional baseball. As a right-handed first baseman, the standards he needs to reach are rather high. He was a tad old for Double-A this season and produced an exactly league-average 100 wRC+. This is a profile that tends to late-bloom and early-fade. Sabato is Rule 5 eligible, and there’s a solid chance he’ll be left exposed.

Three More

Liam Hicks, TEX (24): While scouts are dismissive of Hicks for valid reasons – low exit velocities and sub-par defense – there’s no question he’s posted a dominant AFL season. He’s batting .455/.556/.530 in 81 plate appearances. His 15 walks nearly double his eight strikeouts. For Hicks to have big league relevance, he might need to channel his inner Luis Arraez. Or change his approach.

Wilmer Flores, DET (22): Flores’ AFL matches his scouting report to a “T.” He’s worked 18 innings with 22 strikeouts and only five walks. He also coughed up 25 hits and a 4.00 ERA. Flores has an attractive combination of high ground ball and swinging strike rates. Though Rule 5 eligible, he’s a lock to be added by the Tigers.

Sterlin Thompson, COL (22): Thompson has compiled a .950 OPS without hitting a home run in 93 plate appearances. A designated hitter, his bat nonetheless shows signs of carrying him to the Majors. He handles fastballs of all types well. Presently, he’s better at laying off breaking balls than he is at hitting them – a trait that will likely determine if he’s a Quad-A slugger or a future big leaguer.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: DeLauter, Rosario, Locklear, Dodd, Williams

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Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League where a number of future Major Leaguers are making their case. After falling behind James Triantos last week, Jakob Marsee has reclaimed his spot as the top-performing hitter in the AFL. The pitching leader isn’t as clear cut, though I believe Davis Daniel currently has the strongest case.

This week, the listed stats are from the AFL.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Chase DeLauter, 22, OF, CLE
73 PA, 4 HR, 5 SB, .270/.358/.492

Arguably the top hitting prospect in the league, DeLauter went on a tear recently. The oft-injured lefty owns an unusual swing. Scouts believe he’ll feature plus contact and power at maturity. Presently, the contact plays more consistently than his power. He also shows the plate discipline typical of many Guardians prospects – as evidenced by 10 walks and six strikeouts. DeLauter has the potential to move quickly once he gets out from under the shadow of his past injuries. His batting profile pairs well with lefty-friendly Progressive Field.

Kala’i Rosario, 21, OF, MIN
73 PA, 6 HR, 1 SB, .185/.284/.477

In my AFL preview, I described Rosario as “one of the most accomplished power hitters in the AFL.” This week, he moved into sole ownership of the home run lead with six dingers. I also noted Rosario’s improving strikeout rate throughout the season. That has backed up in the desert. His 34 percent strikeout rate is one of the worst in the league among regulars. Rosario might be showing fatigue – this has been his longest season by around 200 plate appearances.

Tyler Locklear, 22, 1B, SEA
71 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .302/.395/.524

Locklear is a powerful right-handed first baseman with double-plus strike zone instincts. He lays off pitches outside of the zone without any evidence of passivity in the zone. His prospect status suffers from a perceived weakness against velocity in on his hands. Since it’s in vogue to attack a hitter’s hands with triple-digit velocity, it makes sense Locklear’s comparative weakness is seen as a limiting flaw. Teams tend to ask right-handed first basemen to doubly prove themselves before they’re given a chance.

I do have optimism. Locklear’s mechanics aren’t flagged as the issue – he just doesn’t pull the ball with authority. I see this as a symptom of his plate discipline – one that might self-correct in time. Though he isn’t passive in the zone, he’s probably delaying his swing decision just long enough to spoil his outcomes on the inner edge.

Dylan Dodd, 25, SP, ATL
15 IP, 3 BB, 16 K, 3.60 ERA

A Spring Training standout, Dodd performed well in his first start then promptly unraveled. A command-and-control southpaw who relies on disrupting timing, Dodd’s struggles followed him back to the minors. He pitched much better after a month-long absence in July. His final eight appearances combined for 38.1 innings of 3.29 ERA ball. His AFL has served as a continuation of that rebound. Ultimately, Dodd resembles the latest incarnation of “The Soft-Tossing Southpaw” – a profile which plays best in low-stress, regular season settings. Like a Wade Miley, he could help round out a rotation for the next decade or more.

Carson Williams, 20, SS, TBR
69 PA, 5 SB, .271/.386/.305

Upon learning of the allegations against Wander Franco, the Rays immediately challenged Williams with a promotion to Triple-A. He was visibly overmatched. Once returned to High-A, he resumed his dominance of that league and even finished the year with a heady week in Double-A. The level hopping might have taken its toll as Williams has struggled to spark in the AFL. He should be among the league leaders. Among the ugliest signs is his 36 percent strikeout rate. He’s also managed just two extra-base hits – a pair of doubles.

Three More

Damiano Palmegiani, TOR (23): Another of the players I highlighted in the AFL preview, Palmegiani has quietly hung around the top of the offensive stats. He has nine extra base hits including four home runs. He likely has a role with the Blue Jays next season.

Caleb Durbin, NYY (23): An Altuve-sized second baseman for whom I have no scouting reports, Durbin has followed a successful stint at Double-A with an impressive AFL performance. In 69 plate appearances, he has 12 walks and six strikeouts along with a .351/.486/.596 triple-slash.

Kevin Alcantara, CHC (21): A powerful slugger with questionable contact skills, Alcantara is holding his own without truly impressing. He’s already used one service year and doesn’t appear to be a lock to debut in 2024.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Eder, Herz, Rincones, Montgomery, Schwartz

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After another week of action, a spate of strikeouts has cost Jakob Marsee his spot atop the hitter leaderboards. James Triantos has slipped in above him. Top pitcher status is harder to judge. Braden Nett, Davis Daniel, Ricky Tiedemann, and Jackson Jobe all have a case.
Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jake Eder, 25, SP, CWS
(A/AA) 56.2 IP, 11.1 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 6.99 ERA

A southpaw pitching prospect who was once as blue chip as they come, Eder hasn’t recovered well from Tommy John surgery. While his elbow is healthy, he’s lost velocity, movement, and command since his prospect peak. The White Sox dealt Jake Burger for Eder at the trade deadline and likely wish they could ctrl-z that decision. Following the swap, Eder coughed up an 11.42 ERA in five starts for the Sox Double-A affiliate.

On a positive note, Eder has a 3.24 ERA in 8.1 AFL innings – good for ninth-best in the league. He’s coughed up a pair of home runs to go with eight walks and 10 strikeouts. The book isn’t closed on Eder, but he needs to take an active role in writing the next chapter. The current chapter is titled TINSTAAPP.

DJ Herz, 22, SP/RP, WSH
(AA) 94.1 IP, 12.7 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 4.01 ERA

Another southpaw traded at the deadline, Herz is widely seen as a future reliever due to a below-average fastball and breaking ball. His command is also poor. Where he stands out is his changeup. It’s a carrying pitch that should yield a Major League future. Herz continues to work as a starter in the AFL where he’s posted 18 strikeouts in 11 innings. Alas, his command woes (six walks) continue to limit his ability to pitch deep into outings. We await to see if his stuff plays up out of the bullpen.

Gabriel Rincones Jr., 22, OF, PHI
(A/A+) 533 PA, 15 HR, 32 SB, .248/.351/.427

A third-rounder in the 2022 draft, Rincones Jr. is best known for high-caliber exit velocities. He’s expected to wind up at first base due to suspect corner outfield defense and poor speed. Despite a lack of wheels, Rincones has shown aptitude on the bases – a trait that can sometimes portend a gamer’s mentality. His bat should carry him to the Majors without any major adjustments. At the very highest levels, he might prove too susceptible to breaking stuff. With players of this profile, breaking ball recognition is usually the difference between a big leaguer and a Quad-A guy. Rincones is among the top 10 AFL hitters with a .327/.462/.577 triple-slash.

Benny Montgomery, 21, OF, COL
(A+) 497 PA, 10 HR, 18 SB, .251/.336/.370

A former eighth-overall pick, Montgomery has seen his prospect status rapidly erode since draft day. Speed remains his best trait, though he also demonstrates above-average power. His contact is held back by funky mechanics. Most organizations – the Rockies among them – aren’t adept at developing players with a non-standard approach. They’re often left to sink or swim on their own. Encouragingly, Montgomery has cut down on his swinging strike rate at every level. He needs to continue that growth while doing something about the extreme 62.6 percent ground ball rate he posted this season. He also needs to improve his outfield defense where his double-plus speed helps him to recover from poor jumps and routes. He’s slashing .373/.468/.510 in the AFL, albeit with 17 strikeouts in 60 plate appearances.

JT Schwartz, 23, 1B, NYM
(AA) 277 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .302/.383/.437

Schwartz doesn’t have much of a shot with the Mets. He’s likely in the AFL to showcase him in front of other teams. He has the look of a future big leaguer – the sort who helps rebuilding teams trudge through another season. While Schwartz has the physical size to hit for power, his current approach is built around batting average and OBP. He’d draw more attention in the pre-Moneyball era. In 45 plate appearances, he has six doubles and two home runs along with a 1.011 OPS.

Three More

Liam Hicks, TEX (24): Hicks has low-key paced the league on the hitting side including a six-hit day. Despite the heady results, he’s not particularly impactful with the bat. His catching is of the third-string variety – he’s struggled to control the running game throughout his entire career. Other aspects of his defense draw critiques. Without an obvious position, Hicks looks like a ‘tweener whose plus discipline and contact rate could hide his shortcomings.

Kyle Manzardo, CLE (23): Manzardo, who we’ve already discussed ad nauseam in past episodes, leads the league with five home runs and 11 extra base hits. The power adjustment he showed upon joining the Guardians remains in evidence.

Oliver Dunn, PHI (26): A Rule 5-eligible second baseman, Dunn is making a case for consideration. He popped 21 home runs with 16 steals this summer while showing plus plate discipline. He’s strikeout-prone, but the power breakout renders that more forgivable. In 46 AFL plate appearances, he’s swiped nine bases to go with a 1.076 OPS, three doubles, three triples, and a dinger.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Flores, Manzardo, Bliss, Montgomery, Hassell

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Our coverage of the Arizona Fall League continues. Jakob Marsee remains the top hitter with a 1.442 OPS in 44 plate appearances. The title of top pitcher is less clear. Perhaps it’s 27-year-old southpaw reliever Jake McSteen? He’s worked 4.2 innings of hitless ball with six strikeouts. He hit one batter.

Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Wilmer Flores, 22, SP, DET
(AA) 80.2 IP, 9.15 K/9, 3.57 BB/9, 3.90 ERA

Flores performs like someone with a Major League future. He induces plenty of whiffs, limits walks, and generally runs around a 50 percent ground ball rate. Typically, pitchers who can show those three traits go on to have a nice career (health permitting). Sometimes, they have to take the long road like Cristopher Sanchez or Erick Fedde.

My contacts don’t like Flores’ pitch design, though it’s been at least half a year since I’ve received an update on that front. In brief, as of April, his pitches didn’t tunnel well. This is his second stint in the AFL. In three games, all relief appearances, he’s thrown eight innings while allowing nine hits, one walk, one hit batter, one run, and nine strikeouts. Flores is Rule 5 eligible this winter. Barring catastrophe, he’ll soon be on the Tigers 40-man roster. Though he has the look and stuff of a starter, a debut in the bullpen would allow him to ignore those pitch design concerns.

Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE
(AAA) 415 PA, 17 HR, 1 SB, .237/.337/.464

Widely expected to debut for the Rays in 2023, Manzardo instead turned in a 95 wRC+ for the Durham Bulls. He was traded at the deadline to Cleveland. A lefty-hitter, righty-thrower, Manzardo makes for an unusual first base prospect. At an even six feet tall, he’s on the short end for the position. His discipline- and contact-forward approach isn’t what most clubs crave from the cold corner. Of course, the Guardians are not most teams. They appreciate discipline and high contact rates. It even appears they’ve coached him away from the extreme pulled-contact approach he featured in Durham. He finished the season on a high note for Guardians Triple-A affiliate, batting .256/.348/.590 in 92 plate appearances. In 40 AFL plate appearances, he’s hitting .286/.390/.657.

Ryan Bliss, 23, 2B, SEA
(AA/AAA) 612 PA, 23 HR, 55 SB, .304/.378/.524

The Mariners acquired Bliss at the trade deadline. He figures to serve a utility role going forward, though he’s only a positive defender at second base. Despite 23 home runs, Bliss has below-average quality of contact. His stolen base total also inflates his speed which is merely above average. The trait that makes him a future big leaguer is his ability to hit breaking pitches. A tiny right-hander, Bliss is susceptible to velocity at the top of the zone. If carefully managed, Bliss could play up in a platoon role. In 26 AFL plate appearances, he’s hitting .350/.500/.400.

Colson Montgomery, 21, SS, CWS
(Cpx/A+/AA) 223 PA, 8 HR, 2 SB, .287/.456/.484

After missing much of the 2023 season, Montgomery bears watching. The White Sox top prospect is among the AFL leaders with three home runs in 35 plate appearances. He’s also yet to record a walk in an OBP-centric league. Even worse, he has 11 strikeouts. My guess is the White Sox sent Montgomery to the AFL to work on power and aggression. He’s always verged on passivity and rarely gets to his power in-game. Strikingly, he seems to maximize for day-to-day performance rather than an eventual Major League outcome. Perhaps these less-than-desirable AFL results represent the proverbial one step back for two steps forward.

Robert Hassell, 22, OF, WSH
(AA) 476 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .225/.316/.324

A precocious fast-riser in the Padres system, Hassell’s star began to dim not long before he was included in the Juan Soto trade. After a little over a year with the Nats, Hassell has scarcely shown a pulse. That extends his .286/.317/.286 batting line in 38 AFL plate appearances. Along with the lack of pop, he also has 11 strikeouts. At the time of the Soto blockbuster, Hassell was a consensus Top 100 prospect. Now it’s hard to find evaluators who believe he has a second act in him. My two cents: he needs to do something to combat his passivity and lift the ball with more authority. That doesn’t mean selling out for power either. Most of his contact is soft and more than half of his batted balls are grounders. Even an increase in line drive singles would go a long way toward him becoming a viable Major Leaguer.

For those hunting for a silver lining, Hassell is credited with gritty-gamer makeup and might have been negatively affected by a hamate injury suffered in the 2022 AFL. Possibly, he’s tinkered in the wrong direction and merely needs a fresh adjustment to get back on track.

Three More

Harry Ford, SEA (20): Ford is disciplined and powerful as evidenced by his seven walks and three home runs in 25 AFL plate appearances. Those dingers represent the total sum of his hitting – he has a .000 BABIP.

Davis Daniel, LAA (26): Daniel is already on the 40-man roster with 12.1 Major League innings to his name. He profiles as a spot starter or middle reliever – the sort that can provide bulk relief. He’s among the top AFL performers with 10 innings, 15 strikeouts, three hits, three walks, and one run allowed.

Jacob Berry, MIA (22): A former sixth-overall pick from the 2022 draft, Berry is a switch-hitting designated hitter who has looked overmatched at every level. The AFL offers him an opportunity to work with new coaches and possibly get his career back on track. Presently, he’s on the exit ramp.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Triantos, Tiedemann, Roby, Muncy, Pauley

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After one week of play in the Arizona Fall League, several of the under-the-radar players we featured last week are off to strong starts. Heading the charge is Jakob Marsee whose 1.725 OPS leads the league. He’s one of five hitters with a pair of dingers and leads with six extra base hits. He’s recorded four walks to two strikeouts and added four stolen bases. Damiano Palmegiani is also among the top ten hitters while Carter Baumler arguably turned in the best appearance among the pitchers. He went three frames and recorded seven strikeouts.

Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

James Triantos, 20, 2B/3B, CHC
(A+/AA) 363 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .287/.364/.391

Triantos spent much of the 2023 campaign in High-A. My contacts have long liked the 2020 draftee as a breakout candidate, but his in-game power output remains below expectations. There’s late bloomer talk as a result. Bear in mind, we’ve grown a bit spoiled with precocious players who aren’t yet of legal drinking age. On the defensive side, there’s are concerns he won’t stick at second base. His bat might not work in a corner role. Triantos has a 1.230 OPS in 16 AFL plate appearances.

Ricky Tiedemann, 21, P, TOR
(CPX/A/AA/AAA) 44 IP, 16.77 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 3.68 ERA

One of the top prospects in the AFL, Tiedemann is drawing extra work after managing only 44 regular season innings. Those regular season frames were among the best in the Jays system – he led their entire farm in several ERA estimators. The bulk of the action came in Double-A where a high walk rate, BABIP, and low left on base rate led to a 5.06 ERA. Tiedemann is a candidate to make the 2024 Blue Jays, but it’s also likely he’ll have his workload carefully managed. Role: tbd. Through one AFL start, he worked five innings and allowed one run on three hits and three walks with seven strikeouts.

Tekoah Roby, 22, SP, STL
(AA) 58.1 IP, 10.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 4.94 ERA

Like Tiedemann, Roby is getting extra work in the AFL due to missed time during the regular season. After being traded at the deadline, the right-hander pitched impressively in four starts for the Cardinals. His AFL outing consisted of three shutout innings. He allowed one hit with five strikeouts. He features a repertoire of four above-average pitches led by an excellent curveball. FanGraphs drops a Hunter Brown comp. Personally, I smell a whiff of Aaron Nola. He’s trending high floor, high ceiling as a prospect.

Notably, the Cardinals have struggled to finish their pitching prospects. Their matriculated pitchers like Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore often show little understanding of pitch design. Even Johan Oviedo took an instant step forward upon leaving the Cardinals. It’s unclear if this is a persistent organizational failure or pure happenstance.

Max Muncy, 21, SS, OAK
(A+/AA) 545 PA, 10 HR, 13 SB, .275/.353/.411

While most facets of his game remain a work in progress, Muncy appears to be trending toward some form of big league future. The 2021 first-rounder made considerable strides with his contact rate during the 2023 campaign. Scouts mostly view him as a utility guy in the making, although there’s still plenty of time for him to develop the game power and defensive consistency necessary to serve as a regular. His AFL season is off to a splashy start with a 1.009 OPS in 18 plate appearances.

Graham Pauley, 23, 3B, SD (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 551 PA, 23 HR, 22 SB, .308/.393/.538

Since their minor league affiliates skew hitter-friendly, the Padres have a knack for producing exciting-looking position players who fade on the approach run to the Majors. Success stories like Ty France tend to be the exception rather than the rule. Pauley didn’t have much of a draft pedigree when he was selected in 2022, but he’s since developed a reputation as a guy who gets the job done despite unconventional hitting mechanics. A left-handed hitting corner fielder with an extreme pull approach, he might reach the Majors as a carefully managed platoon man – the kind of player favored by teams like the Brewers, Rays, and Giants.

Three More

Adam Seminaris, MIL (24): Acquired in the Hunter Renfroe trade, Seminaris is Rule 5 eligible this offseason. He’s playing for a roster spot in Milwaukee or elsewhere. The soft-tossing southpaw is off to a good start in the AFL. He worked four scoreless innings with one hit and seven strikeouts.

Jackson Jobe, DET (21): One of the fastest-rising pitching prospects, Jobe is rounding out a season that saw him throw about 20 fewer innings than 2022. Since Jobe could be a midseason consideration for the Tigers, his workload is of obvious concern. His AFL debut consisted of four shutout innings with two hits, two walks, and four strikeouts.

Chase DeLauter, CLE (22): DeLauter is the current AFL RBI leader. Like many a Guardians outfield prospect, DeLauter rarely whiffs. His awkward-looking swing has no analogs in the Majors. It looks a bit like a stumbling-drunk Alek Thomas. While credited with plus raw power, it’s unclear if his bat will play against stiffer competition.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: AFL Sleepers Edition

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With the postseason looming, our prospect attention shifts out west where the Arizona Fall League is set to begin this evening. The rosters include several notable prospects. They’re joined by the usual smattering untouted, statistically effective players. Today, let’s skip the big names and focus on the guys fighting for recognition. Those with long memories will recall Edouard Julien’s emphatic AFL performance. “Big Hype” can be built in Arizona.

First, let’s back up and think about Julien’s platform last season. He played well at Double-A as a 23-year-old. In the past, that was on the old side of age-appropriate. Now, it’s just flat-out old for the level. A 23-year-old either dominates Double-A or isn’t considered a prospect (there are exceptions). He was arguably the top player in the AFL last season (Heston Kjerstad won the MVP). Julien went on to post a 2.8 WAR debut in the Majors over 408 plate appearances. High BABIPs are a key component of his success.

Notably, defense was and remains a concern with Julien. There are always a few players who slide under the radar because they have a good-not-great bat married to defensive concerns.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Damiano Palmegiani, 23, 3B, TOR (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 557 PA, 23 HR, 7 SB, .255/.364/.478

There’s some surface commonality between Palmegiani and Julien. They’re both disciplined hitters who produced big league-caliber exit velocities. Scouting reports go out of their way to question the defensive aspects of Palmegiani’s game. He mostly played first base at Triple-A after spending most of the season as the starting Double-A third baseman. Palmegiani also has a shaky hit tool. When he connects, it tends to be well-struck. However, between the discipline and a moderate swinging strike rate, there’s a chance nearly half his plate appearances will end without a batted ball. Barring a profile change, he’ll need high BABIPs just like Julien. Palmegiani is not Rule 5 eligible this winter.

Carter Baumler, 21, P, BAL (A)
(CPX/A) 17 IP, 11.12 K/9, 4.76 BB/9, 3.18 ERA

While we don’t usually watch the AFL for pitchers, Baumler is an exception. A fifth-round pick in the abbreviated 2020 draft, Baumler’s career has been waylaid by injuries, mostly to his shoulder. He managed to return to the mound in late July and even faced 16 batters in his final regular season outing on September 7. He was once viewed as a future Top 100 prospect candidate. With health, he’s young enough to get back on track. He features a well-designed fastball-curve combo. He also shows a slider and changeup, both of which are in want of further development. Baumler is not Rule 5 eligible this winter.

Brainer Bonaci, 20, 2B/SS, BOS (AA)
(A+/AA) 350 PA, 11 HR, 7 SB, .297/.354/.464

Bonaci is on the Ramon Urias utility track. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter. I figure there aren’t many scenarios in which he’s left off the Red Sox roster. Bonaci is a well-regarded fielder, but he’s slow-footed. He’s likely limited to second and third base down the line. His bat is trending in a league-average direction. Given he’s a switch-hitter, the total sum is a useful player who fits well on any roster.

Zach Dezenzo, 23, 3B, HOU (AA)
(A+/AA) 410 PA, 18 HR, 22 SB, .304/.383/.531

Early in the season, Dezenzo was among the top minor league performers by wRC+. After beating up on High-A pitchers, he performed merely decently against Double-A arms. Even so, at least one source of mine believes Dezenzo is Top 100 prospect material. Another source says he has a hole in his swing. While there’s no question about the quality of his contact, the frequency of his contact could leave him in the Quad-A bubble. He’s likely in the AFL to work on defense. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Jakob Marsee, 22, OF, SD (AA)
(A+/AA) 568 PA, 16 HR, 46 SB, .274/.413/.428

Marsee reminds me of a lower-impact version of Julien, one whose future big league role will depend upon making good on the few opportunities he’s given. That he’ll receive such opportunities is of little doubt. He’s a disciplined hitter with a high rate of contact. As a lefty, he’s also on the strong side of any platoon considerations. Defensively, he’s considered fringy as a center fielder. He doesn’t have quite enough pop to excite evaluators about a corner outfield role. Still, he profiles as somebody who could post offensive numbers not unlike Julien’s debut. That’s a Major Leaguer, even if we’re only talking about a platoon bat on the Athletics. He’s likely in the AFL to generate trade interest. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Three More

Hao-Yu Lee, DET (20): You might recognize Lee from this past trade deadline when he was dealt from Philly to Detroit for Michael Lorenzen. A quad strain limited him to 32 post-trade plate appearances. Lee will be looking to make a strong impression on his new employers. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Kala’i Rosario, MIN (21): Rosario is one of the most accomplished power hitters in the AFL this season. He’s coming off a 21-homer campaign in High-A built around hard contact and plenty of pulled fly balls. He cut down on his swing-and-miss this year by being more patient. He is not Rule 5 eligible.

Abimelec Ortiz, TEX (21): Ortiz should be the odds-on favorite to lead the AFL in homers. He delivered 33 dingers this season split between Low- and High-A. With a strong AFL, he’s a fringe Top 100 prospect candidate. He’s also not Rule 5 eligible.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Caminero, Langford, Holliday, Carter, Marte

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As the clock runs out on the 2023 season, we take a look at the Big Hype Prospects who have advanced their hype-levels to all new… levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Junior Caminero, 20, SS/3B, TBR (MLB)
(AA) 351 PA, 20 HR, 3 SB, .309/373/.548

The will they/won’t they dance with Caminero finally resolved. Despite foregoing a promotion to Triple-A, the Rays saw fit to inject an offensive weapon into their postseason repertoire. Part of me wonders how much gamesmanship went into leaving Caminero at Double-A, as if the Rays could convince their playoff rivals he wouldn’t be promoted, maybe they would scout him less? A player of his age and profile undoubtedly has exploitable weaknesses, so the deeper the Rays can get into the postseason before those weaknesses are discovered, the better. Caminero batted fifth in his first two MLB games, going 2-for-9 with a walk and producing impressive exit velocities on six batted balls. While small sample caveats apply, the beauty of exit velocity is instant gratification. A 112-mph EV immediately validates a hitter as possessing impressive pop. All the other stats, well, they need more time to mature into larger samples.

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(4 levels) 200 PA, 10 HR, 12 SB, .360/.480/.677

With Caminero up, Langford is the next future superstar on the cusp of promotion. We discussed him last week prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Since then, he’s batted .368/.538/.526 in 26 plate appearances with MLB-level exit velocities. Round Rock has a three-game series remaining for the PCL Championship, and I suspect we’ll see Langford join the Rangers upon the conclusion of the series. Where he fits on the roster is less certain. Leody Taveras is a quality defender with a league-average bat, and Evan Carter has performed well in limited action. Langford likely represents a net upgrade on both outfielders, but it can be tough to justify changing something that’s working well. Now might be the wrong moment to mess with team chemistry.

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(4 levels) 581 PA, 12 HR, 24 SB, .323/.442/.499

Like Langford, the Norfolk Tides have a championship series over the next three days. If Holliday is summoned to the Majors, it will likely follow these games. He’s had a longer stint in Triple-A, and after a slow start, he’s up to .267/.396/.400 in 91 plate appearances. His average quality of contact is better than a typical Major Leaguer, but his top-end EVs are poor. That’s no cause for concern. Holliday is a teenager. If anything, it might indicate that the Orioles are best served to play it slow rather than forcing an awkward situation with a last-minute promotion. Holliday might represent a modest upgrade over Adam Frazier and Jordan Westburg at second base. He certainly improves upon seldom-used benchman Ryan McKenna. Whether that’s sufficient cause for a promotion is a tough question to answer.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(CPX/AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

Though he is deservedly a Top 10 prospect, Carter profiles differently than most of the top names. He’s one of the surest things in the minors. True stardom might be out of his grasp, especially in this rich era of uber-prospects. Then again, no era of baseball has offered players such tangible opportunity to transform their game. The high-floor, low-ceiling expectation is reinforced by a profile, build, and approach that screams “Brandon Nimmo clone.” Nimmo, of course, recently signed a nine-figure deal entering his age-30 season, hence everyone’s comfort ranking Carter highly. Still, nobody expects Nimmo to carry the Mets. He’s a rich man’s complementary piece. Carter seems destined for a similar role.

Carter is off to a hot start in the Majors. Improbably, he’s hit four home runs in 54 plate appearances as part of a .318/.426/.705 batting line. The dingers, in addition to a .400 BABIP, have served to carry his offensive line beyond even the wildest expectations. Look under the hood, and you’ll see Carter produces only modest quality of contact. He has a knack for barreling the ball, but those barrels aren’t impactful. Like Holliday, this is more of a “now” problem than a future concern. He’ll develop more pop as he ages.

Noelvi Marte, 21, 3B/SS, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 399 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .279/.358/.454

There are no questions about Marte’s exit velocities. They’re among the best in the game. Alas, a ball smashed into the ground is still a ground ball. He’s running a predictably high BABIP as the result of his worm murdering. He’s not producing any power numbers despite hitting the ball powerfully. We have every reason to anticipate growth from Marte in the coming years. What we’re seeing now is a fantastic platform for a quality Major Leaguer. At present, he’s roughly a replacement-level performer. He’s batting .293/.350/.380 (96 wRC+) in 100 plate appearances. If he can learn to generate any lift whatsoever, he’ll quickly morph into a dangerous hitter.

Three More

Orion Kerkering, PHI (22): Arguably the top pure relief prospect in the minors (excluding those being developed as starters), Kerkering features triple-digit gas. He lives off a filth-monster slider. After starting the season in Low-A, the right-hander made his big league debut on Sunday. He seems destined for high-leverage postseason innings.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Since he has expended his rookie eligibility, this will be Encarnacion-Strand’s last appearance in this column. After an unimpressive August, CES has caught fire in September. Over the last 20 days, he’s batting .378/.429/.778 with six home runs in 49 plate appearances. Volatility will likely always be a part of his game.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (21): Crow-Armstrong drew a trio of starts shortly after his promotion. He looked overmatched and has since been reduced to a pinch runner/defensive replacement role. I fully expect PCA to fill this same role in the postseason – assuming the Cubs hang onto a Wild Card slot.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Langford, Manzardo, Mead, Jones, Basallo

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we visit some notable players at various stages of their journey and highlight three more whose 2023 success could yield top prospect status next season.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (AAA)
(CPX/A+/AA) 174 PA, 10 HR, 9 SB, .359/.471/.697

The Rangers, thirsty to reach the postseason for the first time since 2016, have to be giving consideration to Langford. He received a promotion to Triple-A today for the final week of the minor league season. If that goes well, Langford could be the latest player to debut in his draft year. He’s earned the consideration. Of all minor leaguers with at least 150 plate appearances, Langford ranks second overall with a 202 wRC+. He has more walks than strikeouts along with a .338 isolated slugging percentage. He has 25 singles and 26 extra-base hits.

Kyle Manzardo, 22, 1B, CLE (AAA)
(AAA) 313 PA, 11 HR, 1 SB, .238/.342/.442

Seemingly on the cusp of reaching the Majors to start this season, Manzardo instead spent the year in Triple-A and on the injured list. A contact-oriented hitter with a hefty fly ball rate, his approach should play up at Progressive Field. It also yields predictably low BABIPs. Manzardo’s batted ball profile is that of a slugger, but he’s yet to turn that into on-field results. The peripherals are in place for a breakthrough 2024 campaign. The Guardians have an extremely left-handed lineup which could affect how the club plans to use Manzardo.

Curtis Mead, 22, 3B, TBR (MLB)
(MLB) 52 PA, .267/.365/.356

Another Rays product whose 2022 performance outshined his 2023 follow-up, Mead is currently serving as a platoon bat. A slugger by reputation, Mead has yet to homer in his debut season. He also contributed only nine dingers in 278 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s struggled to make consistent contact as evidenced by his 84.0 mph average exit velocity. The only qualified hitter with a worse average EV is Esteury Ruiz. Likely, Mead will make the necessary adjustments to produce spicier balls in play. It’s not uncommon for prospects to make unexpectedly weak contact in their first exposure to the Majors. Mead’s long-term outlook depends upon him finding 30-homer power.

Druw Jones, 19, OF, ARI (A)
131 PA, 2 HR, 6 SB, .252/.366/.351

This year, perhaps no prospect has lost more clout than Jones. A Top 10 prospect entering the season, he’s now at risk of falling off Top 50 lists. Injuries cost his entire 2022 season and most of 2023. Early in the season, he struggled mightily. The good news: there is a silver lining. Since returning to action on August 1, Jones is batting .274/.389/.400 with a tolerable 24.8 percent strikeout rate. His speed and double-plus outfield defense have been on display as well. While Jones has been leapfrogged by other worthy names, he appears to be back on a positive developmental track.

Samuel Basallo, 18, C, BAL (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 483 PA, 20 HR, 12 SB, .313/.402/.551

Basallo began the year as a young power-over-hit catcher with a questionable defensive reputation. He appeared to be half a decade away from a debut – if it ever came at all. He’s now played his way onto Top 100 lists as the latest Orioles breakout. Basallo is built like a first baseman, and it’s where I expect to see him long-term. I believe it’s telling the Orioles have opted to promote him based on the development of his bat rather than his glove. Most catchers meander through the minors as they hone their defensive chops. Concerns about his hit tool appear to be overstated. Given his raw power, he looks likely to make enough contact to float at first base. Fine adjustments might determine whether he’s Rowdy Tellez redux or a first-division starter. In the grand tradition of Carlos Delgado and Kyle Schwarber, Basallo might get some play at catcher before the Orioles bow to necessity.

Three More

Ricardo Cabrera, CIN (18): The latest intriguing shortstop in the Reds system, Cabrera recovered from a disappointing 2022 season by hitting .346/.475/.531 in 202 plate appearances split between the complex and Low-A. He’s already a Top 100 prospect candidate who should find himself in High-A next season.

Yordanny Monegro, BOS (20): The most exciting pitcher to pop in the Red Sox system this year, Monegro combines a number of traits that portend a big league future. He’s built like a starter, misses bats, and can move the ball around the zone. He finished the season in High-A after dominating Low-A where he was old for the level.

Abimelec Ortiz, TEX (21): Ortiz was among the minor league leaders in home runs. His breakout campaign included 33 dingers, mostly at High-A. Not considered much of a prospect entering the season, he should now comfortably rank within the Top 200. He has a chance to reach the Top 100 with a fast start at Double-A in 2024.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Caminero, Carter, Lawlar, Miller

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A hearty welcome to Pete Crow-Armstrong. We discussed his case for promotion last week. Though he had seven hits in 10 plate appearances over the weekend, this promotion is all about his glove. Anything he adds with his bat is gravy.

We’ll cover more recent and potential call-ups in today’s edition of Big Hype Prospects.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 520 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .326/.444/.504

As I noted last week, Holliday’s promotion to Triple-A means we finally get access to public exit velocities. Those go a long way to influencing when a prospect earns his first promotion to the Majors. His 89.6 mph average and 103.7 mph max EVs in 30 plate appearances aren’t particularly impressive. They suggest the Orioles are better off with their existing middle infielders. Overall, he’s hitting just .200/.333/.280 in Triple-A. One silver lining, he’s posted more walks than strikeouts. Of course, we’re also talking about a tiny sample. That should go without saying.
Before anyone frets about his lack of pop in 30 plate appearances, an acquaintance was nice enough to pass along his Double-A data. His 109.7 mph max EV is excellent for a 19-year-old at any level. The chart I received doesn’t list an average, but it’s visually somewhere between 90 and 93 mph – also excellent.

Junior Caminero, 20, 3B/SS, TBR (AA)
(A+/AA) 486 PA, 30 HR, 5 SB, .330/.391/.604

Wander Franco left the Rays in a tough spot, relying on the soft-hitting Taylor Walls and Osleivis Basabe to handle shortstop. Caminero represents a “go-for-power” alternative. Though he mostly plays third base these days, that decision was at least partly in deference to his expected future role. Caminero might not be much of a downgrade defensively – Walls isn’t exactly a superstar defender. Caminero is still athletic enough to cover shortstop at present. Since August 25, he batted .354/.436/.917 with eight home runs in 55 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, 21, OF, TEX (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 513 PA, 12 HR, 25 SB, .288/.413/.450

An injury to Adolis Garcia opened the door for Carter to join the Rangers roster. He was reportedly already under consideration, the injury merely turned “when” to “now.” Oft-compared to Brandon Nimmo (they’re eerily similar), Carter plays within himself. Not all scouts appreciate this – the current meta is all about chasing extreme outcomes. In particular, he looks like he should be able to hit for power, but he maximizes for on base percentage rather than slugging. That’s just the first of many commonalities with Nimmo. The Rangers have a reputation for forcing their prospects to produce pulled, fly ball contact. That Carter reached the Majors despite eschewing organizational preferences suggests there’s an interesting behind-the-scenes tale to tell.

Jordan Lawlar, 21, SS, ARI (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 490 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .278/.378/.496

Questions about Lawlar’s hit tool mostly fly under the radar thanks to heady results and plus shortstop defense. He’s considered one of the best athletes in the sport. The most optimistic scouts consider him a 70 overall on the 20-80 scale. Aside from consistency of contact, Lawlar offers the total package. He’s an above-average runner, fields and throws well, and already flashes 30 homer upside as part of a discipline-forward approach. Though he’s not as extreme as Anthony Volpe, there’s a chance Lawlar’s early outcomes follow a similar track.

Mason Miller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
23.1 IP, 9.64 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.09 ERA

Miller returned from injury on September 6. He’s scheduled to make his first start since April on Monday. A hard-thrower with a limited repertoire and a long injury history, Miller has rare potential to overpower Major League hitters. Developed as a starter, evaluators remain split on his ultimate role. A proactive conversion to relief could help to lengthen his career – or at least improve his effectiveness. As a starter, the range of outcomes looks something like Tyler Glasnow to Michael Kopech with a real chance that he’s usually too hurt to contribute.

Three More

Jackson Ferris, CHC (19): I knew there was a fifth Jackson I forgot last week. Ferris is the also-ran among the prominent Jacksons in baseball, but he still tracks as a potential Top 100 prospect within the coming years. The southpaw has a repertoire of four average or better offerings backed by presently poor command. He’s posted a 3.38 ERA with 12.38 K/9, 5.30 BB/9, and a 53.4 percent ground ball rate in Low-A.

Brooks Lee (22): The Twins are relatively deep in the middle infield or else Lee would be on the shortlist for a promotion. He’s a well-rounded player who lacks standout tools or notable shortcomings. He’s posted above-MLB-average EVs in Triple-A.

Luisangel Acuna, NYM (21): Since joining the Mets organization, Acuna has cut his swinging strike rate nearly in half. He also cut his power in half. The net result is a sharp decline in offensive value. For now, this has the look of a step back for (hopefully) two steps forward.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

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