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Big Hype Prospects: Rutschman, Carroll, Yorke, Peraza, Tovar

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This week, we touch on a couple impending prospect graduates and look ahead for potential future promotions.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (MLB)

129 PA, 3 HR, 1 SB, .220/.287/.407

Rutschman’s prospect eligibility will officially expire with his next plate appearance. In a recent fantasy chat, I received a question about his disappointing performance to date. Contrary to that framing, I’ve found his play to be highly encouraging even if he hasn’t immediately incinerated all competition. His current triple-slash is good for a 96 wRC+. That’s only four percent worse than the average Major Leaguer. This season, there are only 18 catchers with a better wRC+ and at least 100 plate appearances. Rutschman is sandwiched between Sean Murphy and Daulton Varsho. He’s ahead of a slumping J.T. Realmuto. This is not a bad way to debut.

Moreover, he’s performed well in every facet of the game. Even his baserunning has contributed positively. His strikeout rate is better than league average. He swings at considerably fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter. He swings more often in-zone. His exit velocities are above average. His launch angle is a tad steep at present, a symptom of a couple extra infield flies. He hasn’t had issues with those in the past and will probably adjust. His current .253 BABIP has room to expand northwards, and his strikeouts could decline below his already-good rate.

Rutschman never projected as a Trout-ian hitter so it’s unfair to have expected more from his first 129 plate appearances. His value to the Orioles comes from a well-rounded skill set that lacks for notable weaknesses at a famously light-hitting position.

Corbin Carroll, 21, SS, SDP (AA)

277 PA, 16 HR, 20 SB, .313/.430/.643

Few players are more overdue for a promotion than Carroll. Diamondbacks personnel are on the record as stating he won’t skip Triple-A like Braves prospect Michael Harris. That makes sense. The Braves called upon Harris to support their title defense. The Diamondbacks are fading fast in their Wild Card chase. Barring a couple miracle weeks, they’re on their way to selling at the trade deadline. There’s no urgency to bring Carroll to Chase Field this season.

Carroll is currently on the injured list with an undisclosed injury. He finished June with a .366/.452/.704 slash in 84 plate appearances. For those hoping to see Carroll in the Majors this season, multiple regulars might need to be cleared out of the way. Arizona has excellent outfield depth in the upper minors. They’ve been frantically assessing the likes of Jake McCarthy, Cooper Hummel, and Pavin Smith to determine which will support the future outfield of Carroll, Varsho, and Alek Thomas and which should be expended.

Nick Yorke, 20, 2B, (A+)

198 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB, .235/.308/.346

Some observers mocked the Red Sox when they selected Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. He proceeded to have a truly excellent 2021 campaign split between Low- and High-A. He returned to High-A this spring for what many hoped would be a brief stint. Instead, he appears to have stalled.

Part of the issue is health-based. A case of turf-toe held him out for most of a month. He returned on June 21 and has looked rusty since – .179/.258/.286 with a 38.7 percent strikeout rate in 31 plate appearances. Scouting reports tend to be complementary of Yorke’s gamesmanship, believing he’ll play well beyond what can only be described as ordinary scouting tools.

Based solely on his performance data, my theory is he attempted to sell out for more power this season. His pulled contact rate increased sharply as did his swinging strike rates. It could also be a simple matter of better pitching in the low minors this season. Pitching inventories were completely exhausted last year due to many clubs carefully managing their best arms on the heels of the lost COVID season. Regardless of explanation, Yorke’s reputation as a grinder with a good baseball IQ suggests he should overcome this temporary setback. He’s still on pace to be one of the youngest players in Double-A later this season.

Oswald Peraza, 22, SS, NYY (AAA)

249 PA, 9 HR, 16 SB, .240/.309/.404

There’s a certain tyranny to developmental expectations these days. Peraza razed High-A in 2021 then performed well-enough in Double-A to earn a brief call-up to Triple-A. The Yankees returned him to Triple-A at the start of this season, but it might have been more appropriate to continue his development in Double-A. His plate approach could use refinement. He appears to have the raw tools and judgment to be disciplined but instead errs on the side of aggression. His swing is balanced and covers the zone well, especially low-to-high. I perceive some potential for big league pitchers to successfully nibble the outer edge against him, but that’s just me editorializing. I haven’t seen that mentioned in any scouting reports.

Peraza has a high-floor approach as a defensively capable shortstop with sufficient contact skills to keep his head above water. He’s also on the 40-man roster and might be the only plausible option to fill in if Gleyber Torres or Isiah Kiner-Falefa ever need an extended absence.

Ezequiel Tovar, 20, SS, COL (AA)

295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Entering this season, scouting reports focused on Tovar’s defensive prowess while downplaying his potential to hit for power. FanGraphs went so far as to comp him to a “right-handed Nicky Lopez.” The minor league stats aren’t really matching those paltry expectations.

Last season, Tovar delivered 11 home runs in 326 Low-A plate appearances. It’s uncommon for 19-year-olds to deliver a home run every 30 plate appearances – even the ones we think will one day hit for power. As you can see, he’s performing similarly in Double-A this season as one of the youngest players in the league. He currently leads the Eastern League in batting average and ranks fourth in wOBA (Gunnar Henderson still qualifies for the lead).

The main critique of Tovar is his willingness to expand the strike zone. This leads to a low walk rate, too many swinging strikes, and, as he advances, risk of weak contact on balls outside the zone. The other side of the coin is this – he expands the zone because he’s talented enough to do so. The right adjustments could unlock an incredible outcome – and another elite shortstop for the Rockies franchise.

Five More

Triston Casas, BOS (22): An ankle injury has kept Casas out of action since mid-May. He might have missed a chance to squeeze onto the big league roster. Presently, Bobby Dalbec and Franchy Cordero are performing decently as a first base platoon, but there was a window when Dalbec looked to have fallen out of favor. Casas has resumed fielding work and hitting off a tee. He should progress to game scenarios soon.

DL Hall, BAL (23): The good news for Hall is he’s pitching deeper into his outings. He’s averaged 21 batters faced over his last four starts which is right on par with the workload handled by short-burst starters in the Majors. The bad news is, in those four starts, he’s allowed 16 runs (11 earned) over just 16.2 innings. The two most recent outings – both against the Phillies affiliate – are to blame. He issued 10 walks against only five strikeouts in those appearances. Walks (6.57 BB/9) have been a season-long issue.

Michael Harris, ATL (21): Like Rutschman, this could be Harris’ last episode of BHP as a prospect-eligible player. He’s already at 118 plate appearances and should surpass the 130-plate appearance rookie-threshold by the end of the weekend. His early success (139 wRC+) comes with a few red flags. He’s needed a .402 BABIP and a hyperaggressive approach to overcome an elevated 14.9 percent swinging strike rate. Projection systems believe he’ll regress to slightly below league average as a hitter.

Ivan Herrera, STL (22): The heir apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera has seen semi-regular action in the Majors while Molina is on the mend from a knee injury. His first taste of the Majors hasn’t gone well yet. He has just two hits, two walks, and seven strikeouts in 18 plate appearances. However, he hit well in Triple-A (.291/.388/.436) and figures to settle in as a plus-defender with a knack for barreled, low-angle contact.

Josh Smith, TEX (24): A key component of the Joey Gallo trade, Smith recently returned from the injured list and has held his own in the Majors. He’s batting an OBP-centric .258/.439/.290. He has a similar hit tool and plate discipline to Rays utility man Taylor Walls with a little more built-in power. He gives every indication of becoming at least a league average hitter who can man most positions.



Big Hype Prospects: Cruz, Abrams, Volpe, Veen, Wiemer

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This week, we investigate a mix of prospects at a wide range of levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Oneil Cruz, 23, SS, Pirates (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 247 PA, 9 HR, 11 SB, .232/.336/.422

When Tim Dierkes suggested I run this column, Cruz was his first example of the type of player he wanted to see covered. I’d previously written a fantasy column about “Peripheral Prospects” in this same format covering lesser-known guys like Ken Waldichuk and Brett Kerry. It’s only fitting to touch upon Cruz one more time. While his Triple-A numbers don’t jump off the page, he eventually settled in to the level. Since early-May, he’s batted .280/.374/.520 with an 11.4 percent walk rate and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. Reportedly, he was disappointed by his initial demotion, and it contributed to his April-long slump.

Since rejoining the Majors, Cruz is 4-for-18 with a stolen base. In four games, he’s already hit four balls over 100-mph, including two lasers over 110-mph. This is consistent with his track record. Cruz is built like a young Aaron Judge, and he hits the ball nearly as hard. His typical angle of contact is geared towards ground ball and line drive contact which could limit his home run production. When he does lift the ball, you can expect to see it soar. Anytime he’s in the lineup, Cruz is one of the most fascinating players in the league.

C.J. Abrams, 21, SS, Padres (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 151 PA, 7 HR, 10 SB, .314/.364/.507

Like Cruz, Abrams had a previous brief taste of the Majors and recently returned for four games. He’s 2-for-15 with one strikeout. Unlike Cruz, his exit velocities have been outright poor – just 81.8-mph. Abrams’ selection to the Padres roster followed on the heels of a particularly torrid multi-week stretch. He hit .398/.442/.519 over his last 95 Triple-A plate appearances. Included in the fun were four home runs, a 5.3 percent walk rate, and an 11.6 percent strikeout rate.

Such production indicated immediate readiness, especially for a prospect of Abrams’ caliber who scouts adore. If there’s a shortcoming in his profile, it’s that he doesn’t walk. It’s not necessarily an issue of discipline. He expands the zone in part because his speed has allowed him to still reach base in the minors. It’s possible he’ll learn to lay off marginal pitches in the Majors to improve his outcomes. If he does, he’ll flower into a high-quality leadoff hitter. There are still questions about his eventual defensive home – and not only because he has to share a field with Fernando Tatis Jr.

The worst-case scenario for Abrams is as an over-aggressive, contact-oriented slasher who plays all over the field. Between injuries and his incredible talent, we haven’t seen Abrams make many adjustments as a professional.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, Yankees (AA)
270 PA, 9 HR, 25 SB, .233/.326/.427

Over the offseason, I was virtually cornered by several Yankees fans who not-so-calmly explained that Volpe was the best prospect since Mike Trout. To the glee of everybody who loves to hate the Yankees, he performed particularly poorly until mid-May. Through May 17, he slashed a meager .170/.297/.330. Optimists cited four reasons he would rebound. First, the talent remained evident. He was working counts (13.8 percent walk rate). His .195 BABIP indicated poor luck. Lastly, he wasn’t the first prospect to wilt in chilly early-season weather.

As the calendar has heated up, so too has Volpe. He’s slashing .292/.356/.517 since May 18, a span of 132 plate appearances. He’s also putting more balls in play (6.8 percent walk rate, 15.9 percent strikeout rate) with a normal .319 BABIP. Volpe is on the shortlist for top prospect remaining in the minors. He’s also making a strong case for promotion to Triple-A – possibly by the end of this month.

Zac Veen, 20, OF, Rockies (A+)
258 PA, 8 HR, 25 SB, .259/.368/.440

The Rockies don’t exactly have an illustrious reputation with prospects. It’s nice to see Veen continue to perform to his draft pedigree. Scouting reports uniformly express concern about his hit tool playing against elite competition. While he possesses considerable raw power, his swing has qualities that some might describe as grooved. Such hitters can still succeed in the Majors. Billy Wagner once ridiculed Pat Burrell’s one-path swing (after allowing a home run). Joc Pederson might be a more relevant groovy comparison as a left-handed hitter with a pretty, loopy swing.

In any event, Veen is on track to spend some time in Double-A this season and debut either late in 2023 or early 2024. He works counts (14.3 percent walk rate) though he is also whiff prone (23.6 percent strikeout rate, 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate). While he’s 25-for-26 on the basepaths this season, it’s not clear if Veen will continue to run as he moves up the organizational ladder.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, Brewers (AA)
267 PA, 15 HR, 20 SB, .272/.348/.531

A divisive prospect, Wiemer is gaining steam as one of those guys who might succeed – perhaps even thrive – despite glaring flaws. He changed his mechanics heading into 2021 and unlocked massive in-game power. He launched 27 home runs in 472 plate appearances last season before tearing through the Arizona Fall League – one home run and a .467/.568/.667 triple-slash in 30 plate appearances.

There’s question if the hit tool will play in the Majors, but the power is evident enough to easily support a low-average approach. A worst-case scenario might look something like Adolis Garcia with plate discipline. Or Adam Duvall with discipline and an eagerness to run. He sells out for pull-side, fly-ball contact. He’s posted high BABIPs at every level, but this is a hitting profile that usually yields low BABIPs due to a cacophony of pulled grounders and easy fly outs. We should see him tested in Triple-A before long. Milwaukee might even need his help in the Majors late in the season if they don’t add outfield depth at the trade deadline.

Having watched him play several games, the energy he gives off evokes Bryce Harper.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (21): Last week’s lead BHP (that’s Big Hype Prospect), I noted Henderson would soon jump from around the 50th prospect to somewhere in the Top 10 as listmakers prepare their midseason updates. Since then, Baseball Prospectus’ Jarrett Seidler indicated Henderson might be the top prospect left in the minors. A highly-placed source at another major industry outlet confirmed Henderson is on a shortlist of about five players for their top prospect. As I understand it, this excludes all prospect-eligible players currently in the Majors like Michael Harris, Oneil Cruz, and C.J. Abrams.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): Currently shredding Double-A hitters, Perez is perhaps the most-precocious pitching prospect since Julio Urias. While Urias’ development was eventually delayed by injuries, Perez remains both healthy and effective. Most of what I would say about Perez was gleaned from the Marlins system update posted to FanGraphs earlier today. So, I’ll let you read what Eric Longenhagen has to say directly.

Jeter Downs, Red Sox (23): Downs made his debut recently, struck out three times in four plate appearances, and was promptly optioned back to Triple-A. Once a fairly well-regarded prospect, he’s fallen off the map since joining the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts trade. He still possesses tantalizing power and speed along with decent plate discipline. Unfortunately, there’s a ton of swing-and-miss in the profile; the kind that’s readily exploitable by seasoned pitchers. The best-case scenario these days is a sort of Dylan Moore-like outcome.

Brett Baty, Mets (22): Baty was, for me, the most visibly impressive prospect in the Arizona Fall League. Like Volpe, he had a chilly start to his Double-A campaign – his second visit to the level. He currently has a 14-game hitting over which he’s tamed his strikeout rate and pulled his season-long batting line up to an above-average .282/.372/.450 performance. Like the most of the other Double-A bats we’ve profiled today, he’s seemingly on the cusp of a promotion.

Noelvi Marte, Mariners (20): Two weeks ago, I noted some in the scouting biz had indicated Marte’s early-career dominance might be linked to physical traits that won’t necessarily scale as he advances to higher levels. In plain English, the boy got big young. Last week, I issued something of a retraction because I’d misplaced my source. Since then, I rediscovered the initial note, and it comes from a highly reputable source with access to dozens of scouts. All of this is to say that Marte doesn’t seem to be the second-coming if you buy into this early-development narrative. Not everybody does! This has been the most contentious take to appear in BHP. I look forward to fomenting more discussion about Marte. For what it’s worth, his June-long slump has continued. He hit .214/.241/.250 over the last week and is at .191/.257/.324 for the month.

Big Hype Prospects: Henderson, Harris, De La Cruz, Brash, Valera

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This week, we (mostly) delve deeper into the minors to examine some fast-rising future stars.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Gunnar Henderson, 20, 3B/SS, BAL (AAA)

(AA) 208 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .312/.452/.573

Few prospects have done more to improve their stock than Henderson. Coming off a passable but unspectacular 2021 season, Henderson has torched minor league pitching. Since earning a promotion to Triple-A, he’s continued to punish opposing pitchers to the tune of .286/.500/.536 with two home runs in 40 plate appearances. He also has 12 walks against just five strikeouts. In Double-A, he posted 19.7 percent walk and 18.3 percent strikeout rates.

His outlandish performance to date is backed by scouting observations. I spoke with Orioles Director of Player Development Matt Blood prior to the season, and he specifically highlighted Henderson as someone who has turned the corner mentally. Last year, Henderson had some of the markers of passivity – namely a high walk rate, high strikeout rate, and a modest swinging strike rate. This season, he’s reportedly improved upon his selectivity, punishing pitches in the zone while continuing to spit on those outside the zone.

Henderson currently ranks 45th on the MLB Pipeline Top Prospects List. At this rate, he’ll soon join the Top 10 – unless he races to the Majors before the listmakers have time to adjust. The folks who curate your favorite prospect list tend to be quite conservative about upgrading guys based on a partial-season breakout, and with reason! We’ve seen many players post astronomical half-seasons only to later resume a more ordinary development path.

Michael Harris II, 21, OF, ATL (MLB)

70 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .328/.357/.537

To the best of my knowledge, Harris was the third position player to be promoted straight from Double-A to a Major League starting lineup this season. The first, C.J. Abrams, was overexposed in the Majors. Cubs utilityman Christopher Morel looks right at home in the big leagues. So too does Harris.

Harris makes low-angle contact with an all-fields approach. He’s also making frequent hard and barreled contact. Both rates are above league average as measured by Statcast. Taken together, he has the traits of a high batting average hitter. Where he seemingly lags is plate discipline. He’s taken a swing-happy approach in his first exposure to the Majors. He’s especially prone to offering at pitches outside of the zone. His in-zone swing rate is only a hair above league average. His contact rate is roughly league average too. In other words, his aggression hasn’t proven costly. Yet.

It’s not uncommon for physically gifted prospects to reach the Majors, perform surprisingly well, then slump once scouting reports adjust. In Harris’ case, scouts are going to advise a bevy of breaking balls out of the zone. If he plunges into a slump, he might get a belated taste of Triple-A. If he adjusts quickly or otherwise holds his own, then he’s probably here to stay.

Harris is the midst of an eight-game hitting streak over which he’s batting .433/.469/.800 with both of his home runs and steals.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, (A+)

222 PA, 12 HR, 17 SB, .304/.351/.594

If you haven’t already heard about De La Cruz, expect to see his name appearing in more and more articles. Scouts love his build – he has light-tower power, near-elite speed, and a cannon of an arm. He already makes some of the loudest contact in the minors. While he’s mostly worked at shortstop, there’s an expectation he’ll eventually move to third base or perhaps even center field.

A prospect of De La Cruz’s ilk always comes with caveats. His plate discipline can be (generously) described as questionable. His current 6.3 percent walk rate is a marked improvement over the 4.8 percent rate he posted last season. Meanwhile, his 30.6 percent strikeout rate is right in line with his previous performance.

Given his current contact profile, he could fall into a Javier Baez-like mold. Or perhaps Oneil Cruz is the better comp. After all, they’re both physical mutants who might stick at shortstop. Cruz happened to post similar numbers as a 20-year-old in High-A, then held his own in Double-A later that year. Cruz even had questions about his plate discipline. The Reds have no incentive to rush De La Cruz, but he should sniff the upper minors in the coming months.

Matt Brash, 24, SP/RP, SEA (AAA)

19 IP, 3.32 ERA, 15.16 K/9, 5.21 BB/9

Brash entered the season in the Mariners rotation, dazzled in his debut, then proceeded to walk the world. I recall watching that first outing and worrying what would happen when hitters stopped swinging at his breaking balls out of the zone. He didn’t show any sign of being able to command anything within the strike zone. Sure enough, it quickly became a problem. The Mariners made the decision to demote him from the Major League rotation straight to the Triple-A bullpen. A relief role offers a more direct path for pitchers with Brash’s combination of filthy stuff and poor command.

Signs are pointing in the right direction. After some initial command-related struggles, Brash has shoved over his last 10 appearances. His 10-inning scoreless streak dating back to May 25 includes just five hits and two walks compared to 16 strikeouts. He once again appears to be ready for prime time. Unfortunately for him, the Seattle bullpen is fairly robust and will soon need to make way for Ken Giles (who happens to be flailing in his rehab assignment). Brash may need to await a couple injuries to reclaim a role.

George Valera, 21, OF, CLE (AA)

236 PA, 10 HR, 2 SB, .291/.398/.513

Expectations for Valera vary greatly depending on the source. I’ve seen Cleveland fans compare him to Mike Trout. I’ve also seen open skepticism about his hit tool. His performance this season hasn’t exactly supported either of these extreme interpretations. Instead, he seems to be trending as a steady regular outfielder.

Statistically, Valera works counts and runs a tolerable 11.6 percent swinging strike rate. That’s helped him to around a 23 percent strikeout rate any time he’s settled into a level. His strikeout rate tends to spike above 30 percent when he moves up a level. He’s seemingly nearing a promotion to Triple-A. We should probably expect another temporary surge in strikeouts when it happens. His pattern of struggling then dominating each rung of the minor league ladder is reminiscent of Jo Adell. Valera’s discipline should serve to ensure some kind of big league role.

Five More

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): A 2021 draftee, the Athletics promoted Gelof straight from Low-A to Triple-A last season where he held his own in a 13-plate appearance trial. They assigned him to Double-A this season. He’s hit .315/.372/.458. Gelof recently tore the labrum of his non-throwing shoulder and could miss the bulk of this season depending on the treatment plan.

Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): Every season, there’s one teenaged prospect who catches the imagination of every prospect watcher. Last year, it was De La Cruz. This season, it’s Chourio. Scouting reports abound with praise for the young outfielder. He’s currently swatting .347/.394/.599 with six home runs and five steals in 160 plate appearances. It’s uncommon for well-rounded athletes to show this much power as an 18-year-old. Chourio is a long way from the Majors, but his path is already paved. He just has to stay on it, and walk the remaining miles.

Andrew Painter, PHI (19): Painter made a mockery of the complex league, posting a 1.40 ERA with 16.06 K/9 and 3.72 BB/9. He’s shown advanced feel for a pitcher his age. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen notes how well he combines a high, arm-side fastball with a biting slider. He also throws a curve and changeup, both of which lag behind his two primary offerings. He’ll need to develop those in order to stick in the rotation. Painter was recently promoted to High-A.

Bobby Miller, LAD (23): A flamethrowing right-hander, Miller has experienced mixed results in Double-A. He’s posted a 4.60 ERA with 9.57 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9. There’s a Hunter Greene-ish feel to Miller. His fastball runs over 100-mph with regularity, but certain characteristics cause it to play down. There’s relief risk here, especially if the Dodgers don’t trade him. They have the resources to use him in whichever role provides the most instant gratification.

Noelvi Marte, SEA (20): Last week, I observed that a sliver of the shine has come off Marte. A prominent writer reached out for my sources, and I realized I’d misplaced the relevant comment. I’ll do a better job sourcing my material going forward. Presently Marte is putting up slightly better than average production as one of the youngest players in High-A. He remains an exciting prospect.

Big Hype Prospects: Lowe, Kwan, Kirby, Moreno, Baz

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This week, we check in two players making their debut, another on the cusp of return, and two others who have mixed results.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Josh Lowe, 24, OF, TBR (AAA)

125 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .291/.368/.527

Lowe began the season in the Majors where he struggled with strikeouts en route to a .188/.257/.344 triple-slash. Upon returning to Triple-A, Lowe immediately dealt damage with his bat. He blasted four home runs in his first 46 plate appearances, but they came at the cost of 21 strikeouts (45.7% K%). Since then, Lowe’s exploits at the plate have been less emphatic. He’s hitting .300/.380/.443 with seven doubles and one home run over 79 plate appearances. The good news – and the reason for this update – is his strikeout rate has steadily declined. He’s done particularly well over his last 12 games, striking out just once every five plate appearances.

Although Lowe hasn’t socked many home runs lately, he’s still hitting plenty of doubles. The improvements to his strikeout and walk rates suggest he’s ready to return to the Majors. The Rays don’t have an odd man out among their position players. However, they’re currently carrying 14 pitchers and will need to trim down to 13 on June 19. Unless Brandon Lowe or Wander Franco make a miraculous recovery from their injuries, Lowe will be the most impactful position player already on the 40-man roster.

Steven Kwan, 24, OF, CLE (MLB)

171 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .271/.368/.368

Kwan was a revelation during the first week of the season. He has a preternatural ability to avoid missing pitches. His 2.1 percent swinging strike rate not only leads the league, it leads all player seasons since Marco Scutaro’s heyday. Unfortunately, all strengths are also weaknesses. In Kwan’s case, he rarely makes hard contact. Among qualified hitters, he ranks fifth-worst in hard contact rate, sixth-worst in average exit velocity, and second-worst in max exit velocity. Nicky Lopez, Myles Straw, and Tony Kemp are the most-similar hitters by contact quality. Kwan has recently dropped to the bottom of the Guardians lineup amid all these softly-hit baseballs.

If there’s a silver lining, it’s that his bat-to-ball skills remain elite, even if the result of that contact isn’t anything special. He has a 12.3 percent walk rate compared to a seven percent strikeout rate. To put this in context, I sorted all player seasons of 150 or more plate appearances over the last decade by walk rate minus strikeout rate. Thus far, Kwan’s debut ranks seventh-best. Appearing ahead of him are Yandy Diaz (2022), Juan Soto (2020, 2021), Joey Votto (2017), Jose Ramirez (2022), and Tommy La Stella (2020). While most of the players on this list are superstar sluggers, a few names like Luis Arraez and Eric Sogard are also present. Kwan seemingly fits in this tier of player.

George Kirby, 24, SP, SEA (MLB)

32 IP, 3.38 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 0.84 BB/9

On the surface, Kirby is having a fantastic debut. After skipping Triple-A entirely, he’s contributing above average outings to a Mariners club desperate to recapture their 2021 swagger. There are some causes for concern, namely the bluish hue of his Statcast metrics. Kirby has been plagued by loud contact. He hasn’t yet felt the sting – at least not in any disastrous way, but it’s only a matter of time. To truly succeed in the Majors, he’ll need to work on quality of contact.

The good news is he has multiple tools at his disposal. Presently, he’s far too predictable when it comes to attacking the strike zone. A stint in Triple-A might have helped him to learn how to work outside of the zone effectively. Now, he’ll have to learn on the fly – though it isn’t too hard of a lesson. You’ve undoubtedly heard someone say pitching is a game of chess. In this case, Kirby telegraphs his moves which helps opponents to employ stunning counters (hard contact). As he matures, Kirby will learn to use opponents’ expectations against them.

Gabriel Moreno, 22, C, TOR (AAA)

150 PA, 1 HR, 3 SB, .324/.380/.404

Moreno is expected to join the Blue Jays lineup tonight and will instantly become the best defensive catcher on the roster. While they both have plenty of bat for the position, neither Alejandro Kirk nor Zack Collins is well-regarded defensively. Danny Jansen, who is considered a good defender, is currently sidelined with a finger injury.

Moreno began to turn heads during 2020 then parlayed his growth into an explosive 2021 when he was on the field. Unfortunately, his season ended after just 159 plate appearances. He’s nearly matched that total this year. Although he’s continued to provide above average offense, his power has wilted. In addition to the one lonesome home run, he’s hit only eight doubles.

Shane Baz, 23, SP, TBR (AAA)

13 IP, 1.38 ERA, 13.85 K/9, 2.77 BB/9

Baz, the final piece of the Chris Archer haul, made his big league debut last season. He flashed a lightning fastball and two wipeout breaking balls. An elbow injury slowed his 2022 debut. He’s made four rehab appearances in Triple-A and has been declared ready. He is scheduled to pitch on Saturday.

Although I don’t have specific velocity readings from his outings, the results seemingly speak for themselves. Baz recorded 20 strikeouts against just eight hits, four walks, and a hit batter. His most recent appearance came against a weak Brewers affiliate. He faced 18 batters and struck out 10. To preserve his health, he’ll likely face 20 or fewer batters in his upcoming outings.

Five More

MJ Melendez (23): The return of Salvador Perez has not slowed Melendez. He’s now regularly batting fifth in the lineup while playing catcher, right field, or designated hitter. Melendez has hit a healthy .271/.340/.518 with five home runs over his last 94 plate appearances.

Juan Yepez (24): Called up when the Cardinals were dealing with a stack of injuries, Yepez has cooled in recent weeks. Since May 24, he’s batting .186/.229/.256 in 48 plate appearances. Dylan Carlson’s return could result in fewer opportunities for Yepez.

Nolan Gorman (22): Despite hitting well, Gorman has fallen into a part-time role. His .288/.362/.519 line in 58 plate appearances is partly overshadowed by a 34.5 percent strikeout rate. That’s in line with his performance in Triple-A. When he does connect, he makes loud contact.

Noelvi Marte (20): Briefly considered a Julio Rodriguez-caliber international prospect, scouts have recently taken to describing Marte in more ordinary terms. Apparently, he reached physical maturity ahead of his peers. While he still seems destined to reach the Majors in short order, a superstar ceiling might prove difficult to achieve.

Roansy Contreras (22): Contreras’s 24-batter outing on June 4 was his first in the Majors in which he faced more than 20 batters. Concerns remain about the lack of changeup, but Contreras gives every appearance of being a reliable Major League contributor. Like many young pitchers, he’s allowed more hard contact than is ideal.

Big Hype Prospects: Thompson, Rodriguez, Pratto, Perez, Bello

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This week, we take one last check-in on an uber-prospect then turn our attention to new fast-risers.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Zack Thompson, 24, SP, STL (AAA)

44.1 IP, 11.37 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 4.67 ERA

The Cardinals recently announced Thompson will join the Major League roster, presumably to start one of the games this weekend. Reading the tea leaves, this might be a single-appearance arrival in the big leagues. He should eventually be a fairly regular member of the rotation at times during this season. Like fellow left-handed Cardinals pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore, Thompson’s individual pitches draw strong grades from scouts. However, the repertoire as a whole might leave something to be desired, especially since his fastball and curve don’t tunnel effectively. In other words, they look different out of his hand. That could partly explain his elevated Triple-A ERA despite strong strikeout and walk rates.

Liberatore, a 22-year-old former Rays farmhand, was dinged for a 5.54 ERA in three starts and generated just 6.1 percent swinging strikes. Scouts from multiple outlets have noted the similarities between these left-handed starters. We’ll see if Thompson can make a stronger claim to Major League readiness.

Julio Rodriguez, 21, OF, SEA (MLB)

205 PA, 6 HR, 15 SB, .272/.322/.424

Through the first two weeks of the season, Rodriguez hit a miserable .154/.233/.179 with a 41.9 percent strikeout rate. He struggled, in part, with bad strike calls. Since then, the precocious prospect is batting .303/.346/.487 with all six of his home runs and 11 steals. His strikeout rate during that span is down to 25.9 percent and slowly improving as the season progresses. He’s rapidly establishing himself as one of the most dynamic players in the league.

The obvious next step in his development is improved plate discipline. Rodriguez drew a healthy number of walks in the minors last season, though that could have been a function of opponents working around him. Thus far, he’s proven especially susceptible to swinging outside of the zone. His early experience with egregious strike calls might have taken a mental toll. If he can improve to even a league average swing rate outside the zone, superstardom will be his.

Nick Pratto, 23, 1B, KC (AAA)

186 PA, 10 HR, 4 SB, .221/.349/.461

Prior to this season, Pratto was seen as ahead of teammate Vinnie Pasquantino. Now, it’s not so clear. Both players are first basemen with sufficient thump to make their presence felt out of the designated hitter slot too. The trouble is the Royals entered 2022 with a logjam of cornermen and are resistant to setting aside their veterans. In particular, Carlos Santana has performed poorly since the start of 2020, batting just .203/.322/.311 in 1,061 plate appearances. Their loyalty in the face of contrary evidence is a factor in their 16-33 record.

While Pasquantino is having the spicier season, Pratto’s bat has come alive in the last two weeks. Over his last 59 plate appearances, he’s batting .217/.390/.565 with five home runs. He profiles as a slugger in the mold of Kyle Schwarber, one whose patience and penchant for fly ball contact will serve both as a strength (walks and home runs) and weakness (strikeouts and low batting average).

Eury Perez, 19, SP, MIA (AA)

38 IP, 13.26 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 3.79 ERA

Unless I’m mistaken, Perez is the youngest member of Double-A, and he’s absolutely thriving. A looming 6’ 8’’ on the bump, Perez has uncanny command for a player his size and generates swinging strikes with ease. To that end, he’s recorded an 18.8 percent swinging strike rate against Double-A competition. He has a traditional repertoire of mid-90s fastball, curveball, and changeup. His build remains youthful. Given his height, Perez will probably add 30 or more pounds within the next couple years.

The Marlins have carefully managed his workload, keeping him to between 18 and 21 batters faced in most starts. In all probability, we won’t see Perez in the Majors this season. He might, however, find his way to the doorstep in time for an early 2023 debut.

Brayan Bello, 23, SP, BOS (AAA)

17 IP, 13.76 K/9, 4.24 BB/9, 3.18 ERA

The Red Sox have a number of interesting starting pitcher prospects headlined by Bello. While their big-league rotation is solid, they desperately need reinforcements in the bullpen. Bello kicked off 2022 in Double-A where he posted a 1.60 ERA with 11.23 K/9 and 3.21 BB/9 in 33.2 innings. He’s hardly missed a beat since joining the Triple-A rotation. A slight uptick in walk rate is the only sign he’s been challenged. Bello features a three-pitch repertoire of above average offerings. His fastball sits in the upper-90s and could play up in relief. He also throws a tight slider and a wipeout changeup.

Bello is poised to immediately reinforce the Red Sox pitching staff, either by joining the bullpen directly or freeing Garrett Whitlock to resume a late-inning role.

Five More

Grayson Rodriguez (22): Rodriguez was 20 batters into what many (including me) believe was his final minor league start when a lat strain ended his outing a few batters early. Such injuries can be complex and difficult to rehab. He’ll likely be shut down for at least several weeks before a throwing program is considered.

Ethan Small (25): Small received his first cup of coffee last Monday. He’s a southpaw whose fastball and changeup blend together beautifully even if they lack the big velocity associated with this era. His third pitch, a slider, lags behind the others. With Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff sidelined, the Brewers might need Small again soon.

Taj Bradley (21): Bradley has built upon his breakout 2021 season with a mirror replica in Double-A. He’s posted a 2.20 ERA with 11.20 K/9 and 2.20 BB/9 in 41 innings. A promotion to Triple-A should be forthcoming, at which point he’ll become one of the youngest players at the level.

Gunnar Henderson (20): Speaking of young Double-A players on the cusp of reaching Triple-A, Henderson has put together an otherworldly .433/.500/.767 line over his last 30 plate appearances. Overall, he has more walks than strikeouts along with eight home runs and 12 steals in 200 plate appearances. A promotion is overdue.

Jordan Westburg (23): Although his overall performance hasn’t been as emphatic as Henderson’s, Westburg was just as hot since May 25. He’s batting .406/.486/.594 over his last 37 plate appearances. While Henderson appears to be mid-breakout, Westburg is merely showing modest skills growth.

Big Hype Prospects: Torkelson, Duran, Rodriguez, Pasquantino, Yepez

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This week, we check in on a number of prospects already in the Majors or on the cusp of promotion.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Spencer Torkelson, 22, 1B, DET (MLB)
144 PA, 4 HR, .179/.292/.309

Those hoping Torkelson would be the next great prospect debut have been sorely disappointed. Yet, lurking below his ugly surface level stats are promising peripherals. Tork has displayed above average plate discipline and is especially resistant to swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. He’s still struggled with strikeouts (28.5% K%), but there’s reason for optimism on that front. Since his 10.2 percent swinging strike rate is relatively tame, he should trim his strikeouts as he adjusts to the league. His primary scouting attributes – an above average hit tool backed by double-plus power – await an aha moment.

A week ago, a demotion to Triple-A looked increasingly likely. However, he’s now hit .265/.333/.441 over his last 39 plate appearances with three doubles, a homer, a 10.3 percent walk rate, and a 15.4 percent strikeout rate. The not-quite-hot-streak is sufficient cause for optimism, especially for a 16-28 Tigers club.

Jarren Duran, 25, OF, BOS (AAA)
142 PA, 4 HR, 10 SB, .315/.387/.543

Duran admitted to trying to do too much in the power department last year when he hit .215/.241/.336 in 112 big-league plate appearances. Thus far, he’s played just one game in the Majors this season. We’ll see him for more soon since he’s slaying Triple-A pitching and stands to considerably upgrade a 21-23 Red Sox roster.

Duran has returned to a line drive-oriented approach which might limit his ceiling but should also improve his floor. His batted ball profile is associated with high-BABIPs. Red Sox starting right fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. isn’t bringing anything with the bat (.213/.275/.331). He might be better deployed as a backup or defensive replacement.

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
43.1 IP, 13.71 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 2.70 ERA

The Orioles have a doubleheader tomorrow. Jordan Lyles is set to start one half with the other belonging to a mystery pitcher. Baltimore has several options including Rodriguez. He’s due to start tonight so we’ll likely know by 7:05pm ET if he’ll get the call. 

Since appearing in the column last week, Rodriguez had a six-inning, nine-strikeout start. He allowed two runs on four hits and a walk. It marked the second consecutive start in which he faced 23 batters. That’s a fairly typical workload for a young Major League pitcher so it does appear he’s cleared all obvious development hurdles.

Vinnie Pasquantino, 24, 1B, KC (AAA)
182 PA, 12 HR, 3 SB, .296/.396/.638

If the 15-28 Royals intend to salvage their season, they don’t have any time left to pull their punches. The club is currently using Hunter Dozier and Carlos Santana between first base and designated hitter. Dozier is having a solid if unspectacular rebound season. Santana, despite again managing more walks than strikeouts, hasn’t brought any thump to the plate. Pasquantino, a lefty slugger, has comparable walk and strikeout rates to Santana, but he supports them with a fly ball-oriented swing and a high rate of contact. Had he arrived during the 2019 season, he’d be an instant threat to swat a 50-homer pace. Since his raw power doesn’t stand out, there’s risk he’ll run a low BABIP due to too many easy fly outs. I’m reminded Rhys Hoskins in his age 24 season (2017). Perhaps we’ll see the same homer binge too!

Juan Yepez, 24, 1B/OF, STL (MLB)
86 PA, 4 HR, .273/.337/.468

Yepez wasn’t a highly celebrated prospect until his excellent 2021 campaign. Even that performance drew lukewarm plaudits due to the lack of quality pitching in the upper-minors last season. Yepez delivered more power in Triple-A this April, popping nine home runs in 93 plate appearances. He’s followed up with four dingers in the Majors. An aggressive batter, Yepez has the makings of an above average offensive player who lacks a stable defensive home. The Cardinals are currently trying him in the outfield corners and first base. Since Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson are sidelined, there’s plenty of room to play mix and match. When they return, St. Louis and Yepez will have to reckon with a roster crunch.

Five More

Bryson Stott (24): Shortstop Didi Gregorius is slowly working his way back from a knee injury. This was an excellent opportunity for Stott to claim the starting role, but he’s hitting just .108/.195/.108 in his second stint with the club. Strikeouts have plagued him all season, even in Triple-A. A second demotion looms if he doesn’t awaken immediately.

Nolan Gorman (22): When he was promoted last week, I figured Gorman would either struggle to make contact or succeed via home runs. Instead, he produced loud contact but didn’t clear a fence. His .263/.364/.368 batting line through 22 plate appearances is safely above average, but it relied upon a .417 BABIP. Whiffs could still sink him – his 31.8 percent strikeout rate and 17.7 percent swinging strike rate would rate among the 10-worst qualified hitters.

JP Sears (26): Among pitchers with at least 20 innings, Sears leads Triple-A with a 35.9 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate (K%-BB%). On Wednesday, he tossed five strong innings against the Baltimore Orioles. Sears largely leans on a fastball-slider combo which tends to indicate a future in the bullpen.

Kyle Muller (24): A former second-round pick, Muller hasn’t yet successfully transitioned to the Majors. He walked the world in his lone big-league start this season. In the minors, he’s posted a fine 3.68 ERA backed by a lovely 12.03 K/9 and 3.44 BB/9. Scouts have noted his fastball command tends to be transient.

Jordan Groshans (22): Since arriving in Triple-A, Groshans has recorded twice as many walks as strikeouts in 78 plate appearances. Although he’s yet to homer, his .381/.474/.429 triple-slash is plenty lovely. He’s a line drive machine who could reinforce the Blue Jays later this season. Scouts expect him to slide to third base.

View Today’s Fantasy Baseball Chat Transcript

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Brad Johnson has been writing about fantasy baseball for more than a decade and has considerable experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats.  As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.

We’ll be hosting fantasy baseball-focused chats with Brad regularly, and feel free to drop him some questions on Twitter @BaseballATeam as well.

Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with Brad!

Big Hype Prospects: Gorman, Liberatore, Thomas, Lewis, Rodriguez

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The Cardinals are making waves on the big prospect front, and we’re here to cover it. 

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Gorman, 22, 2B/3B, STL (AAA)
147 PA, 15 HR, 3 SB, .308/.367/.677

Once the move is official, the Cardinals will become the first team to roster two Nolans at once (I assume). Baseball has come a long way since its origins. From 1878 through 1885, the sport featured a player known as The Only Nolan.

Trivia aside, Gorman will be the latest top prospect to make his debut. Power has always been his calling card, though this is the first season he’s getting to it in games at such a blistering rate. It comes at a price. He had a 34 percent strikeout rate, and he didn’t walk often (8.2 percent walk rate). In my experience, prospects with questionable discipline tend to have volatile debuts. Opponents sometimes quickly seize upon the player’s weaknesses, making it necessary for the hitter to immediately adjust. Other times, opponents accidentally wander into the batter’s nitro zone, leading to an explosive debut. The slump comes later. Players with these plate discipline markers always slump at some point. We’ll soon see if Gorman enters the league with a rampage, a whimper, or something in between.

Matthew Liberatore, 22, SP, STL (AAA)
40 IP, 10.35 K/9, 2.70 BB/9, 3.83 ERA

I’ve been wondering which of Liberatore or Zack Thompson would make their debut first. We now have our answer. Originally acquired in the Randy Arozarena trade, Liberatore was viewed by many at the time as the best player in the trade. Arozarena’s early-career heroics led us to revise our opinion of what looked like a rare misstep for the Rays, but Liberatore is now poised to help complete the analysis.

As a public, we’ve learned a lot about pitching since that trade, and new findings help to put the deal in context. While the southpaw grades out well on a pitch-by-pitch basis – his fastball is mid-90s, his curve has lovely shape, and his slider is a borderline wipeout offering – the repertoire as a whole doesn’t quite mesh. His fastball is built to work low in the zone so it doesn’t tunnel with his curve. It also plays down for other reasons – in short, some hitters are able to identify it out of the hand. There’s still enough here for a solid big-league pitcher, the profile just isn’t as exciting as it once was.

Alek Thomas, 22, OF, ARI (MLB)
39 PA, 2 HR, .316/.333/.553

Thomas is off to a sizzling start. As expected, he’s hitting for average and even has a pair of home runs. Beneath the surface are a few modest causes for concern. He’s known for his plate discipline, but his 2.6 percent walk and 20.5 percent strikeout rates are both worse than many hoped. His swing rates on pitches in and out of the zone are roughly league average. As an industry, we expected him to be more discerning. Thomas is a ground ball-oriented hitter who uses all fields. The profile remains that of a leadoff hitter who can go 15/15 while posting a top batting average and on-base percentage.

Royce Lewis, 23, SS, MIN (AAA)
(MLB) 40 PA, 2 HR, .308/.325/.564

Lewis had a lovely debut for the Twins. He was neither overmatched nor out of his element. The top prospect showed he belonged by flashing power, a high rate of contact, and adequate plate discipline. His aggressiveness as a hitter often worked against him in the lower minors, but Lewis has worked to improve. He posted a 15.3 percent walk rate in Triple-A. While his 2.5 percent walk rate in the majors implies he was free swinging, his swing rates at pitches in and out of the zone were roughly league average. His two home runs were backed by gaudy exit velocities. He maxed out at 114-mph, on par with Mike Trout (114.4), Julio Rodriguez (114), and Bryce Harper (113.8), among others. 

For now, he returns to Triple-A in deference to Carlos Correa. The move raised some eyebrows (including mine) due to the struggles of Jose Miranda (.094/.143/.189) and Gio Urshela (.229/.293/.330). Having shown his bat belongs, Lewis will presumably spend the next few weeks preparing to return at a new position. In his first game back at Triple-A, he went 3-for-3 with a home run and a stolen base.

Grayson Rodriguez, 22, SP, BAL (AAA)
37.1 IP, 13.74 K/9, 3.13 BB/9, 2.65 ERA

While we were looking elsewhere, Rodriguez might have completed the final step in his ascension to the Majors. On Tuesday, he faced 23 batters while pitching 5.1 innings. He’d faced 19 batters in his previous four starts. He held the Charlotte Knights scoreless on three hits, three walks, and 11 strikeouts. If there’s a small measure of concern for the right-handed changeup artist, it’s that he’s allowed 4.74 BB/9 over his last four starts. We’re approaching a point in the season where teams might be tempted to push a debut past the nebulous Super Two deadline. That would probably entail at least another full month in the minors.

Five More

Adley Rutschman (24): Rutschman watch continues unabated. He’s passed the rehab hurdles set for him. Over the last week, he hit .261/.370/.522 with two home runs, three walks, and one strikeout. His debut could come within the next week, possibly even this weekend.

C.J. Abrams (21): After skipping Triple-A by earning a spot on the Opening Day roster, Abrams looked overmatched in 65 big-league plate appearances. Optioned to the minors, he’s hitting .216/.293/.459 with three home runs and three steals in 41 Triple-A plate appearances. The results are modestly encouraging despite the low average and OBP.

Marco Luciano (20): Last season, Luciano’s plate approach deteriorated upon a promotion to High-A. Repeating the level, he’s back to his usual ways, hitting .300/.366/.530 with six home runs in 112 plate appearances. He’s hit especially well over his last 60 plate appearances. He’s trending towards a promotion to Double-A.

Chase Silseth (22): Silseth, who also appeared here last week, had a strong debut. He recorded an 11.1 percent swinging strike rate thanks mostly to his frequently-used splitter. His fastball and slider also looked like plus offerings.

Corbin Carroll (21): Over the last week, Carroll hit .435/.552/1.043 with three home runs, two triples, a double, and two stolen bases. He’s overdue for a promotion to Triple-A. Should that go equally well, we could see him in the Majors later this season.

Big Hype Prospects: Rutschman, Kirby, Hall, Stott, Brujan

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This week, we check in on three prospects already in the Majors and two more on their way. 

Five Big Hype Prospects

Adley Rutschman, 24, C, BAL (AAA)
26 PA, 1 HR, .200/.385/.350

After quickly trouncing High- and Double-A competition, Rutschman has settled into Triple-A over the last week. While his stats at Norfolk aren’t yet glowing, he is nearing a promotion, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic. First, he has a couple boxes to tick to complete his rehab journey from a triceps injury. The most important step is starting at catcher multiple days in a row. Thus far, he’s caught only three of six games in Triple-A. Encouragingly, he delivered his first home run of the season on Thursday. He’s also demonstrating the quality plate discipline and contact skills associated with his previous rise through the system.

Connolly believes a promotion will come this month and perhaps as soon as next week. While many would undoubtedly like to see him arrive on Monday for the start of a home stand, that might be too soon for Rutschman to complete his rehab goals. Next weekend or the following week make for reasonable expectations.

George Kirby, 24, SP, SEA (MLB)
6 IP, 0.00 ERA, 10.50 K/9, 0.00 BB/9

Last week’s Big Hype Prospects noted the potential for Kirby to fill Matt Brash’s spot in the Seattle rotation. That potential became reality on Sunday. Against the Rays, he faced 21 batters, allowing four hits and recording seven strikeouts. He did a fair amount of nibbling in his debut – only roughly half of his offerings were in the strike zone. Despite this, he was efficient, needing just under four pitches per batter. He also induced 14 whiffs out of 81 pitches thrown. He mostly relied on his fastball and slider while showing the occasional curve and changeup.

As several observers noted, Kirby’s fastball velocity plunged throughout the game. Six innings and 21 batters faced both stand out as season-highs, and it’s fair to wonder if debut jitters had him overamped in the early innings. Kirby’s next test comes Saturday against the Mets. We’ll want to see if he shifts how he uses his four-pitch repertoire, and if he can maintain his velocity from beginning to end.

D.L. Hall, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
3 IP, 3.00 ERA, 12.00 K/9, 6.00 BB/9

Hall’s preparation for the season has taken him on a similar path to Rutschman. They probably could have shared transportation from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A. Hall’s stuff is truly electric. The southpaw can sit around 96-mph, and his fastball has natural carry. He complements it with two wipeout breaking balls and an effective changeup. Besides health, command is his primary shortcoming. However, he showed signs of turning a corner last season. Comparisons to Josh Hader abound. Remember, Hader had a chance to stick in the rotation before he proved too valuable as a reliever.

Injuries and poor command have prevented Hall from topping 100 innings in a season. The Orioles front office undoubtedly wants to take it slow while getting him ready for an expanded role in future seasons. He’s faced between 12 and 15 batters in his three starts, a sign he might be used as an opener or bulk reliever this season. That would also be an effective way to get him a full season of outings without a burdensome workload.

Bryson Stott, 24, SS, PHI (MLB)
(AAA) 40 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .333/.375/.611

Stott made the Phillies out of Spring Training then proceeded to flop. He hit just .133/.161/.167 in 31 plate appearances. Upon a demotion to Triple-A, his bat immediately awakened. He delivered multiple hits in five of nine games played. The sole red flag was a 25 percent strikeout rate which, while not egregious by leaguewide standards, is on the high side for him. Still, we’re talking a couple extra strikeouts in a small sample. An injury to Didi Gregorius necessitated Stott’s recall. The Phillies hope Gregorius can return sometime next week. In four games since returning, Stott has one hit, one walk, and seven strikeouts in 16 plate appearances.

Vidal Brujan, 24, UT, TB (MLB)
(AAA) 70 PA, 6 SB, .300/.400/.467

Brujan’s offensive template is speed-based. However, despite what many say, he’s not entirely powerless. Think of him as similar to Cardinals utility man Tommy Edman. Both have the capacity to sting the ball even if most of their contact is on the ground. Brujan raised his launch angle in Triple-A Durham last season, launching 12 home runs in 441 plate appearances. He also stole 44 bags. He could age into more power. For now, the focus is on maintaining a low strikeout rate and high BABIP. The Rays have lumped Brujan into their ever-mutating series of platoons. He should receive regular, if unpredictable, playing time.

Five More

Oneil Cruz (23): While his triple-slash of .190/.315/.324 remains an eyesore, Cruz has shown signs of life in his last six games (.304/.467/.565). As Chris Clegg of Fantrax notes, Cruz is capable of Stantonian exit velocities. The Pirates are using Diego Castillo and Rodolfo Castro at shortstop, both of whom are considered second basemen by most scouts.

Riley Greene (21): Greene was on pace to make the Tigers Opening Day roster before breaking his foot. He’s expected to resume baseball activities today. The Tigers could use an upgrade in center field. Greene is a patient slugger who comes with the usual high strikeout rate.

Josh Lowe (24): Lowe was demoted to Triple-A in early May. The results are mixed. His .207/.303/.552 batting line is above-average mostly thanks to three home runs in 33 plate appearances. He’s also too strikeout prone at the moment. His 18 punch outs equate to 54.5 percent of plate appearances.

Chase Silseth (22): Although lacking in “big hype,” Silseth has flown through the Angels system. He’ll start for the big-league club tonight, skipping Triple-A in the process. Overall, he’s tossed just 31.1 innings in the minors. The right-hander had a 1.73 ERA in 26 Double-A innings complimented by 12.81 K/9, 2.42 BB/9, and an 18.5 percent swinging strike rate.

Royce Lewis (23): Our lead story last week, Lewis has held his own through 21 plate appearances. Overall, he has six hits and four strikeouts, good for a .286/.286/.333 line. He does not appear to be overmatched. Carlos Correa returns soon.

Fantasy Baseball Chat Transcript

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Brad Johnson has been writing about fantasy baseball for more than a decade and has considerable experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats.  As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.

We’ll be hosting fantasy baseball-focused chats with Brad every other Monday at noon CT between now and September, so mark your calendars for those and feel free to drop him some questions on Twitter @BaseballATeam as well.

Click here to view the transcript of this afternoon’s chat with Brad!

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

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