The Tigers reinstated right-hander Spencer Turnbull from the 60-day injured list Wednesday but optioned him to Triple-A Toledo rather than add him to the active roster. He’d been out since early May with a neck injury.
Turnbull, 31 next month, tossed a no-hitter for the Tigers back in 2021 and looked to be in the midst of a breakout season before a torn ulnar collateral ligament necessitated Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire 2022 season while recovering and made just seven starts earlier this season before incurring the neck issue that’s sidelined him for more than three months. He wasn’t effective when on the mound earlier this year, pitching to a 7.26 ERA with diminished sinker velocity — 93.9 mph on average, compared to 95.1 mph pre-surgery — in just 33 1/3 innings of work. Turnbull’s 16.6% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 48.5% grounder rate were all considerably worse than the marks he posted in nine starts prior to 2021’s elbow injury.
Things haven’t gone particularly well for the right-hander on his minor league rehab assignment in recent weeks. Since returning to a mound in late July, he’s logged a 6.75 ERA in 21 1/3 innings — albeit with more encouraging strikeout and walk rates of 24.1% and 7.3%, respectively. Still, Turnbull gave up at least two runs in five of his six minor league outings despite averaging less than 3 2/3 innings per appearance. He’ll try to get back on track in Toledo between now and season’s end.
The timing of the optional assignment is critical, as well. Turnbull is six days away from reaching five years of Major League service time — the point at which a player gains the right to refuse an optional assignment to the minor leagues. The Tigers could have conceivably given Turnbull one big league start to see how he fared before making a decision on whether to option him, but even making two starts in the Majors would’ve resulted in him gaining the ability to decline when the team tried to option him. That service time is also worth keeping an eye on for club control purposes; if Turnbull gains even six more days of MLB service this year, he’ll be eligible for free agency following the 2024 season. If he remains in Triple-A, he’d be controllable through the 2025 campaign.
Of course, that assumes Turnbull remains in the team’s plans. He’ll be owed a small raise on this year’s $1.8MM salary in arbitration over the winter, and given the manner in which the season has played out, it can’t be considered a lock that he’ll be tendered a contract. He’d be a low-cost risk for a team in need of pitching depth, so it’d be sensible enough to just commit the $2MM or so to see if he can return to form, but Turnbull was drafted and developed by the preceding front office regime. Time will tell how the new group feels it’s best to proceed.
From 2019-21, Turnbull made 50 starts for Detroit, pitching to a 4.13 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate, 50.3% ground-ball rate and 0.64 HR/9 in 255 frames. He looked to be taking his game to new heights in 2021, pitching 50 innings with a 2.88 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 57.2% grounder rate prior to his injury. With Turnbull in Toledo for the time being, the Tigers will rely on Eduardo Rodriguez, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, Reese Olson and Alex Faedo in the starting rotation.
Spencer was not very sharp in the minors, needs more time there before joining the big show!
I don’t think he’ll be back in Detroit. Most likely, he’ll finish this season in Toledo and get non-tendered during the off season.
Possible, but given how little he earned this year, I could certainly see the Tigers tendering him. He isn’t going to get a huge raise and as a bounce back candidate he would be a lot cheaper than some others.
Guess it will come down to the devil you know vs the devil you don’t
Timing is interesting but not unexpected as he was nearing the end of his rehab assignment time. So a decision was going to have to be made. Certainly Tigers could be gaming the service time issue to some extent, but he clearly isn’t ready either. I guess we’ll see how he fares the rest of the way in Toledo and if the Tigers ever call him back up this year.
For $2mm, it should be an easy decision to tender him a contract. Assuming E-Rod opts out, they will need the depth. They already added a backup C that cost $2mm more than what they had. Turnbull, however, is an Avila guy, and we saw Candelario get cut over a $1mm difference. Maybe HARRIS will have learned. Maybe he hasn’t.
The potential salary increase was well more than a million had we tendered him a contract. He made $5.8M last year and would have probably make at least a million more even with a down season. So made a lot of sense to move on especially since he’ll be a FA at the end of this year. He signed for $5M, more than I thought he would but probably close to $2M less than he would have got in arbitration with the Tigers. The risk in tendering Turnbull is quite a bit less.
There is always a risk in non-tendering a player.. For every guy like Candy or James McCann there are a bunch that don’t bounce back. And even if they do, that bounce back doesn’t always stick. McCann is good evidence of that.
non tendered in the Fall….Cardinals starter in the spring . bank on it, baby.
There is something about those last 2-3 innings of a no-hitter, around pitches 105-130, where by going for it the pitcher is also facing the end of his career. It’s predictable. It isn’t worth it, guys.
This happened before Tommy John Surgery was invented. Baseball history is crammed with quality pitchers who snapped the wrong tendon and quite suddenly it’s exit, stage left. It still happens today. If you’re going to occasionally overtax your pitcher, skip a start or two afterwards. Why is this not done unless an injury necessitates it? Do it proactively.
It’s so obvious – if a pitcher is extended past their safe zone for whatever reason (6th inning or sooner these days) SKIP THEIR NEXT START. The damage done by pitchers looking for extra torque from fatigued arms should make extra rest mandatory before the next exposure.
Why is that never done as a preventative? It’s crazy considering the market value of these arms.
Turnbull 2 years ago, Musgrove last year. The list is long. Went for the no-no and paid a price. Sometimes the price is temporary (Musgrove wasn’t the same for months), sometimes permanent.
Give the arm a week or so off afterwards, and just maybe those stretched ligaments won’t snap. Skip a start!
Not sure what has caused the rash of TJ injuries in past 30 seasons, but it’s an epidemic! I think baseball needs to figure it out and change rules to help prevent as many injuries as possible. Lower mound, farther distance, different ball, or something else we haven’t thought of yet, just might be the ticket to keeping pitchers healthy. Whatever they try might prolong careers and also increase scoring, which is a great option
Turnbull has made a fortune off that Ilitch money. He;ll rack up another 5-6 million in arbitration before he moves on as well. He’ll leave Detroit healthy and wealthy, he’s got nothing to kick about.
Turnbull has made $5.964 million (including his signing bonus) from the Tigers since he was drafted in 2014.
Just me, but I think the Tiger-Turnbull relationship is seriously damaged. Recall back in May when they went to send him down (and after he’d hired Scott Boras as his agent) he came up with a sore neck that allowed him to continue to accrue service time on the DL then be in the minors.
It’s clear from this move the Tigers are paying him back by not bringing him back up and get that 5th year of service time and 1 year closer to free agency.
If the Tigers don’t bring him up and delay Turnbull’s free agency to 2026 what incentive does he have to “try really, really hard” in ’24 instead of just trying hard…sort of….to get to 2025 and another arbitration deal. 2025 will be the year he will pitch, pitch, pitch.
If he doesn’t get to 5 years this season he won’t want the tigers to offer arb. He’ll want to be non-tendered and get a decent contract from someone else and hope to be trade bait (like Lorenzen this year) for them.
I doubt we see Spencer Turnbull pitch in a Tiger uniform again.
I would be totally okay with the non tender and move on. The fact his agent informed him he was hurt speaks volumes.
The Tigers aren’t the kind of organization that would simply keep him down in the minors just so he wouldn’t accrue that year of service time. He’s just been downright AWFUL since he’s came back, plain and simple. You can’t have a minor league ERA over 7 and expect to be gifted an MLB rotation spot? He’s just not playing well enough to earn that.
Agreed… I think he has shown enough in the years he was healthy that he’s worth bringing-back to ’24 spring training and given a chance….perhaps he’ll get stronger and more healed during the offseason.
Well, there’s still Mize, for the future…..
Interesting that his career took a dive the moment his married girlfriend stormed the field after his no-hitter. He will be out of the league in 2 years, at which time she will be on to her next meal ticket.