If one were to look simply at first baseman Josh Bell’s production since joining the Marlins back in August, it would appear to be a foregone conclusion that Bell will decline his $16.5MM player option for the 2024 season and test free agency. After all, Bell has posted strong numbers since being traded to Miami at the deadline: he’s slashed .266/.338/.474 with 11 home runs in just 51 games as a Marlin. Given the weak upcoming free agent class on the positional side, that sort of production would place him as one of the better hitters in the class, below top-of-the-class stars Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger but in the same conversation as the likes of Jeimer Candelario, Matt Chapman, and Jorge Soler.
Unfortunately for Bell, the decision isn’t that simple. The 30-year-old slugger has long been regarded among the streakiest hitters in the majors. Back in 2019, the switch-hitter appeared to be in the midst of a breakout season as he tore the cover off the ball for the Pirates in the first half, slashing an incredible .302/.376/.648 with 27 home runs en route to his first career All Star appearance. He returned in the second half having fallen back to Earth, however, and hit just .233/.351/.429 the rest of the way.
It was a similar story in 2022. Bell posted strong numbers with the Nationals for most of the season, slashing .301/.384/.493 in 437 trips to the plate. After being shipped to the Padres in a blockbuster deal alongside superstar Juan Soto, however, Bell struggled badly, posting a meager .192/.316/.271 slash line the rest of the way with a whopping 57.4% groundball rate. Those struggles prompted Bell to take a two-year, $33MM deal with the Guardians this past offseason with an opt-out after the 2023 campaign.
In 2023, Bell’s struggles came at the beginning of the season, as he hit .224/.330/.350 over the first two months of the season. While his final results in Cleveland were roughly league average (96 wRC+), they weren’t particularly close to the production Bell would have needed to show to justify leaving $16.5MM on the table this offseason to test the open market again. That said, his aforementioned hot stretch with the Marlins could have changed things for the 30-year-old, as it’s lifted his overall season slash line to an above-average .245/.325/.416. That figure improves to .256/.322/.449 in 96 games since the start of June, putting him in the same ballpark as his .259/.347/.453 career batting line.
While it’s unlikely that Bell would top his $16.5MM option by measure of AAV, nineteen hitters (including Bell himself) received a guarantee of $17MM or more last offseason. It’s not difficult to imagine Bell receiving more in free agency that Brandon Drury (two years, $17MM) or Justin Turner (two years, $21.7MM) did from the Angels and Red Sox last year. The aforementioned scarcity of quality hitters on the free agent market this coming offseason could also help Bell, should he decide to test the open market.
While first base is one of the better-populated positions this offseason, with players like Turner, Brandon Belt, and Garrett Cooper set to hit the open market after posting solid season, Bell has youth on his side relative to those veterans. He’ll play next season at age-31; only Ohtani, Bellinger, Candelario and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have posted above average offensive seasons among free agents younger than Bell, though Chapman, Rhys Hoskins and Teoscar Hernandez will also have their age-31 campaigns in 2024.
Of course, things aren’t completely set in stone yet, even as the regular season wraps this weekend. With the Marlins favored to make the postseason, it’s possible Bell finds himself at the center of a surprise push deep into the postseason for Miami and posts big enough postseason numbers to impact his impending decision, which will come shortly after the World Series.
What do MLBTR readers think? If you were in Bell’s shoes, would you exercise your player option for next season and hope for a stronger platform season in 2024, or would you decline the option in search of a higher total guarantee on the open market?
Opt in and hope to put up Miami level production next season. Barring an injury or a collapse he should be able to secure another fairly significant contract after next season.
I wouldn’t consider a $2/25 to be better than 1/16.5 for him but that’s a risk tolerance question for Bell. A pretty decent young team in Miami FL isn’t the worst place to be for a year.
“A pretty decent young team in Miami FL isn’t the worst place to be for a year”
It’s quite remarkable how many times that exact phrase has been used in regards to the Marlins over the past 20 years or so.
You are not wrong at all. But their future is about as bright as Cleveland and he was willing to go there. They have a roster that can be competitive.
The Marlins are one of the better teams he could play on with an obvious 1B vacancy.
Presumably there’s no buyout on the option?
There doesn’t appear to be, which is kind of surprising because most options come with one, but since it’s a player option, it’s a little less so.
You can ring Josh bell, ring Josh bell, Josh bell!
No. Just no, dude.
I don’t know, he is a streaky hitter, you’re not wrong, but since debuting in 2016, he has only had one season with an OPS+ below 100 and that was 2020 which by all accounts was a fluke season for many players. He’s no Ohtani or Trout, but he’s not a slouch with the bat. He’s a solid slightly above average bat and with offense the way it has been in MLB the past few years, I’d take a shot at the open market. I don’t know if he’ll be able to match the $16.5 million salary, but I don’t see him having any problem getting a 2-4 year contract where he makes at least double that amount over the life of the deal.
It would be smart for him to opt in I think. He might get more money total on a lesser annual value. I think in Miami there are positive tax considerations to consider as well.
If he hits well he could possibly open himself up to a QO (I don’t think he’s ever been offered), an extension, or a bigger deal once this club option (if opted in) expires.
I’d love to see him back in Pittsburgh, but then again I’d love to see any 1B in Pittsburgh.
Macbeth – he isn’t a very good 1st baseman; the Pirates can do better.
I’ve had hope they would find better. Truth is that no one wants to come play here because the ownership sucks and they aren’t going to pay anyone.
Our last “consistent” 1B was Adam LaRoche honestly. It’s a revolving door and we have almost zero prospects in that position also.
Its a no brainer:
Yes, Bell should exercise.
He’s a professional athlete for god sakes.
Bobby Bonilla didn’t workout and it worked out so well for him that both the Mets and Orioles are still paying him, for how well he played, to not play anymore.
Take the 16.5 believing: (1) can’t get near that AAV on longer term contract; (2) next year he should get the same type of long term deal as this year where the total over years is better to wait.
Say he can get a 3 / 36 ish deal now.
He can still get at least 2 / 24 next year and he pocketed 16.5 for 2023.
You can adjust the prospective contract amounts to fit your thoughts but the concept the same.
He may have a good year and help himself even. If he has a poor year, the extra on the 16.5 will offset any loss.
Players will rarely take a 1 yr deal if a multi year deal with a reasonable AAV compared to the yr deal.
If he can get 2yrs/$28+ or 3yrs/$36+ he will jump at it.
Astros – I think your opening premise of correct that players rarely take a 1 year deal when a multi-year deal is offered.
That said, that is not what Bell is facing.
He has a 1 year very high (for him) AAV that he has in hand via an option. If he passes, he is only hoping to get a multi-year deal and there is no justification for anywhere near 16.5 AAV and it would not be more than 3 – probably 2.
Any multi-year deal he hopes he can get now he should equally hope that he can get at least that (minus 1 year) next year.
So for Bell’s situation, it does make sense to consider taking the 1 year deal because of how high the AAV is and how likely he can still get the same deal next year that he can get now.
This is not a situation like Ohtani – where he might turn down a 1 year deal at 45 while waiting to recover from surgery to hope for a mega contract because he can pitch again. Ohtani will still get a mega year mega amount deal at 10/450 (minimum) even with the injury – Bell isn’t facing those options.
Thin on topics today?
Thumbs down
Ids
1) thank you for outing yourself as not being intellectually curious
2) maybe this isn’t the right site for you if you’re not interested
He’s on a nice run. He’s in his early 30’s. He won’t get too many more opportunities at a good multiyear contract. He should opt out and try to get more guaranteed money.
Nah. He’s been bouncing around for a couple of years now. Time to settle down and settle in. Seems like he and Miami are a good fit. Stay Josh; get your deal right there.
Don’t see him getting a multi year deal with an AAV of $16.5M or higher.
Neither do I. I’m a CLE fan, and I was glad to see him go not just because of his mediocre performance, but it looked crystal clear he was gonna opt in. Glad he turned it around, but you just never know what you’re gonna get from this guy.
Opt in. Odds of bettering $16.5 million as a 1B/DH in free agency is very, very slim.
“Those struggles prompted Bell to take a two-year, $33MM deal with the Guardians this past offseason with an opt-out after the 2023 campaign.”
My heart bleeds for him!
Oh cmon, Dorothy. The man “has to feed his family”. Isn’t that the familiar refrain among today’s pro athletes?
DMt and FS
These are the kind of taeks people make when their brains have been thoroughy washed by capital.
If the money doesn’t go to the players it’s going to the Billionaire owners. It’s not going back to the fans. If the millionaire players need to eat, think about the delicacies that the owners are eating.
Also, players have more than just selfish incentives to get the biggest contracts that they can. Because they belong to a union, they have some pressure to take larger contracts to ensure larger contracts for future players. If Player A takes a discount, then teams will point to that player when Player B is negotiating and say “if Player A was only worth X, why do you think you are worth Y”.
You make as much money as your talent and ambition allows. Welcome to America.
You’ll forgive me for laughing at the irony of your comment. While it’s not just America—take a look at soccer salaries worldwide—it speaks to how priorities are out of whack
When “talent” on a ball field or court supersedes the talent in medical research, in classrooms, police units and the like, sorry, I have to laugh
Screw that
fs
What irony? And, speficially, what kind?
Anyway, I’ll ask the same question to you that I always ask and that no one ever respond to.
By what mechanism would you like baseball players to be paid less and researchers, teachers and law enforcement to be paid more? Like, how do you see this happening? Please be as specific and detailed as you would like.
fortunatesohn, I felt the same way until it was pointed out that these athletes are entertainers in multibillion-dollar industries. Do people resent Tom Cruise or Taylor Swift for their millions? The fans vote with their pocketbooks to support these entertainers and athletes. If attendance tanks and viewership drops, the money will follow,
When “talent” on a ball field or court supersedes the talent in medical research, in classrooms, police units and the like, sorry, I have to laugh
========================
So you don’t go to movies, or concerts, or the theater, or the museums?
Musicians like Paul McCartney or Eric Clapton don’t tour because they want to make sure Joey B has a good day.
The Godfather movies weren’t a minimum-wage documentary.
Folks like Faberge or Picasso dealt in serious money.
So unless you skip all these things, then your “laugh” rings hallow.
Do people resent Tom Cruise or Taylor Swift for their millions?
=======================
This always struck me a basement-level view of the world.
If we didn’t indulge the very talented people, what kind of world would we live in? Most of the music and art that we enjoy made people wealthy. Every technological advancement we have, like the computers we use, or the internet, made some people extremely wealthy,
Boras is his agent. He’s likely to opt out and let the market decide.
With Bell’s negative impact on defense, he’s still less than a 1 WAR player. He’s better as a DH than at 1B, so he should stay on board for the $16.5m!
Bell should definitely exercise the option. 2023 simply reinforced the issues with his game. It is difficult for me to envision any team giving him a multi-year deal that guarantees him much more than his 2024 option.
There should be a 3rd choice for Bell and Miami working out a small extension. Maybe $25M/2 with a 3rd year team option which becomes a player’s option based on PAs.
Is that a better deal than what he has now? Belt got 1/9.3MM coming off a pretty poor injury plagued season. I think that’s a pretty decent comp for Bell if he enters the market after next season with a “meh season” If he produces better there’s obviously more earning power.
I think there’s more upside for him to opt in and collect the full salary this year. If Miami wants to tack some more on and he’s happy—sure. Don’t think I’d take that 2/25 if I were him though.
Opt out and get the most you can. Probably his final go at a multi year deal at $10+/year
Spotrac suggests his market value sits at $17.5M. Given how weak the market is for 1B will be, it’s possible he could get more with a few more years?
He’s already made $39M so he’s definitely not struggling to put food on the table. Sure, decline the offer and go into FA for probably your last time on a high note. Very close to that 10-year market for the full pension so hope he gets a 3-year deal
He’s serviceable at 1B, not sure if he’s gotten better with his defense since I only saw his time with Pittsburgh. That said, he’s probably more of a DH player so his value drops, especially with better, albeit older players, like Belt and Turner available. I would opt in, play it safe.
Josh Bell should opt-in and bet on himself in Miami. How many teams are there out there right now actually willing to offer Bell 2/25 or 3/36?
I guess it depends on whether the teams that might have roster needs he’d fill have the spending profile and willingness to engage in a bit of a bidding war, but I see a guy who at his floor is a switch hitter who gets on base and doesn’t strike out a lot and then also has 114 mph in his bat. A team that thinks they can get more lift out of the swing can tap into an approach and raw power that gets his results back in line with the .347 xwOBA should be willing to make an offer worth declining that option.
If he can’t get the multi year deal he desires, he could bet on himself and sign a one year deal
This will be an interesting decision for Bell.
If he opts out, he’d have to really be sure he could do better overall.
Bell gets traded to the Padres with Juan Soto and then both those players’ hitting
goes “ice cold” for the 2nd half last year and in the playoffs?!
If Josh Bell wasn’t so steaky as a hitter, then he would have been extended to play 1B/DH in San Diego.
Great personality and guy.
Bell hits too many hard ground balls.(easy outs in MLB).
With all that strength and muscle,
Bell should work on elevating the ball more
for more extra base hits and home runs.