As the final stretch of the 2023 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Twins on the verge of clinching:
Despite having the day off today, the Twins (81-72) could clinch the AL Central crown by the end of the night. Their magic numbers over both the Guardians (72-81) and Tigers (71-81) sit at one, meaning that if both teams lose tonight, the Twins will officially become the 2023 AL Central champions. Clinching early will give the Twins the luxury of proceeding cautiously with some of their ailing regulars in advance of the postseason. Shortstop Carlos Correa has already been placed on the injured list after playing the bulk of the season with plantar fasciitis in his left foot. Third baseman Royce Lewis is set to undergo an MRI today after exiting Tuesday’s game due to hamstring soreness. With a guaranteed playoff spot, the Twins can much more comfortably rely on Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer to cover for Lewis and Correa as that pair hopes to heal up ahead of the playoffs.
2. Guerrero to undergo MRI:
Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was out of the lineup for yesterday’s win over the Yankees, and MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson notes that the slugger has undergone an MRI due to right knee soreness. It’s been a down year for Guerrero (by his standards), as the 24-year-old has slashed just .264/.342/.440 in 644 trips to the plate this season. Still, that production (115 wRC+) leaves him as a critical cog in the Toronto lineup surpassed only by shortstop Bo Bichette, particularly with both Brandon Belt and Danny Jansen on the injured list. If Guerrero requires a trip to the injured list, the club figures to rely on the likes of Spencer Horwitz and Cavan Biggio to handle first base in the interim.
3. Raley to undergo MRI:
Rays outfielder Luke Raley is also set to undergo an MRI today, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Raley told reporters (including Topkin) that he’s dealing with numbness in his left arm to the point that he had no power behind his most recent swing. Raley’s been out of the lineup for nearly a week now due to the issue. The 29-year-old slugger is slashing .249/.333/.490 with a 129 wRC+ in 406 trips to the plate this year while splitting time between the outfield and DH. Raley’s absence has created additional opportunities for righty slugger Harold Ramirez and youngster Jonathan Aranda in recent days, and that figures to continue if Raley requires a trip to the injured list.
The Twins clinching would be the epitome of the AL Central this year. Twins don’t even play and still clinch the division. Wouldn’t be surprised if they end up running the tables and winning it all this year.
They should have been a seller at the deadline. They would win the division anyways, and they can restock their farm system. I doubt a .500 team would go deep into the playoffs with or without a few players.
The Twins blew 28 leads in the 8th or 9th inning then went off to lose this year. Even if they won 1/2 of those games with better relief pitchers they’d have 95 wins right now! Don’t sleep on Minnesota.
@mnnorth
The reason you don’t sleep on the Twins is the late innings is the time to beat them. What have they done to change that in the playoffs? Any team can get hot and win, regardless of regular season record, but this years Twins won the division by default. No other team in the division even attempted to win it.
@stymeedone – Maeda, Ober and Varland will all likely be pitching out of the bullpen. Brock Stewart 0.70 ERA, 2.44 FIP is expected back for the playoffs as well. So high leverage bullpen arms are much more reliable. No more trotting Pagan and Floro/Lopez out when the game is on the line. The lineup is hitting better and more consistent as well.
The Twins are .586 with series wins over Diamondbacks, Phillies, Rangers and Reds since the beginning of August.
The Twins are far from favorites, but they’ve gotten better. As it stands at the moment,
Orioles – Bye
Astros – Bye
Rangers @ Twins
Mariners @ Rays
Would be the opening round of the playoffs.
Head to head vs. team (series results)
2-4 vs. Orioles (1 win, 1 swept loss)
1-5 vs. Rays (1 loss, 1 swept loss)
3-3 vs. Blue Jays (1 win, 1 loss)
4-2 vs. Astros (2 wins)
5-2 vs. Rangers (2 wins)
1-2 vs. Mariners (1 loss)
The 2006 Cardinals (and for that matter the ’73 Mets) would like a word
It’s interesting that Cleveland was the darling team in the Central coming into the year, and has a front office that gets rave reviews. The Tigers meanwhile get consistently bad reviews. Here they are with basically identical records.
They don’t have basically identical records, the Twins record is 10 games better. Also the surrender Gourdians don’t have a good front office, they shot their whole team in the foot at the deadline this year. What they do have is an amazing pitching development staff. But beyond that they’ve never shown any sign of being able to put together a good roster, just lots of good pitching.
The comparison was to the Tigers, not the Twins.
You’re right. Like when Cleveland went to the World Series in 2016 and were 1 game away from the WS in 2007. Weak rosters. The Guardians have made the ALDS or higher in the playoffs 4 times in the past 10 years.
The Twins have lost 18 straight playoff games. They’ve made it to the ALDS 1x in the past 10 years where they were promptly swept right out, and even that was in the “doesn’t really count” shortened 2020 season.
I’m a Twins fan and season ticket holder, but even I’m not arrogant enough to talk smack when my team has amounted to utterly nothing worth mentioning for 2 decades…
Every single team in the Central has been to the World Series more recently than the Twins.
Guardians 1995, 1997, 2016
Royals 2014, 2015
Tigers 2006, 2012
White Sox 2005
cards did back in 06 with a record of 81-80 (them and the giants only played 161 that year) so possible that the twins go on a run
Cards were 83-78 in 2006. Close, but not quite that bad. Astros were right behind them at 82-80.
i was close without looking it up lol, i just remember we set the record of the team with the worst record to win a ws which ironically was the 87 or 89 twins.
I just hope they can break their playoff losing streak and win a game. Stark Raving Sports did a great video on their playoff losing streak, and it really makes you empathize for the Twins.
Vlad news for Toronto
Toronto’s window with this core is rapidly closing. Bichette, Vlad, and Biggio all free agents after 2025 season.
I’d be surprised if they didn’t get Bichette locked up long term sometime in the next couple of years. It’s become more and more clear that he is the one who should be getting the contract that breaks the bank between him and Vladdy. And as much as Biggio has stepped up to perform lately, he is far from being a part of the core of this team. He is a nice contributor but certainly falls more into the role player category.
@steriods
Rapidly closing? Windows are typically 6 years (length of time for first arrival to become a FA). They are making the playoffs most likely in .23, plus still have ’24 and ’25 to play. If they extend or add an impact player from the farm, they will be doing just fine. Follow Houston’s plan, and don’t pay big money. if they won’t extend at a reasonable rate. Replace.
The only thing I would be quite concerned about is the injuries to the lower bodies of their two stars are starting to pile up already from playing on that concrete.
You can say whatever you want about the new surface and it’s much softer than the old turf players want to play on natural grass.
If you don’t think that’s a big deal walk around on concrete for 8 hours one day and let me know how your back, knees and or hips feel.
The blue jays have to play Rays-yankees-rays to close the season out. Good chance they are the odd man out in the playoffs. And what ammo from the farm can they bring up? Farm system is mid tier at bet.
The Mariners only face the Astros and Rangers from here on out. That means in each of those games, they will be gaining (or staying even in the case that they lose) a place in the loss column against the teams battling for that spot. The good chance is that it is one of the West teams that ends up being the odd one out.
The fact that the Tigers are still somehow mathematically not eliminated at this point is insane. What a horrific division.
The AL/NL Central is to MLB what the AFC/NFC South is to the NFL
The Tigers could still come in 2nd, not that that really means anything.
Sports need less divisions not more. With the balance schedule why isn’t just American League and national league. Stop holding the central teams hands into playoff spots. This current format 6th place is far more desirable than 4 or 5 and it was that way last year as well. That’s a dumb playoff format.
AL Central WS appearances since 2000.
White Sox 2005
Tigers 2006, 2012
Guardians 2016
Royals 2014, 2015
The AL Central has held its own in the playoffs just fine. 6 WS appearances and 2 wins in the past 22 years and 4 of 5 years in a row.
I like these alternative stats… the wRC+ stat… “even though the numbers look very average… he’s actually doing pretty good.”
They have to dumb everything down.
I like when fans put themselves with stuff like this. Give me “can’t understand current baseball” for 400 Alex.
I prefer OPS+. It’s park-adjusted statistical referencing, which is what really matters. WRC+ always weirded me out, like xwOBA.
wRC+ is also park adjusted
It simply says that a HR>3B>2B>1B>BB
Pretty reasonable, no?
Is vlad just an above average hitter?
Vlad is hitting more like he did at the start of his career. He hit .269/.336/.442 in 2019-2020. Almost identical to his current .264/.342/.440 triple-slash so far this year. That’s far from bad, and actually pretty good. But this guy slugged 48 home runs, and led the league in OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, total bases, wOBA, and wRC+ just two years ago.
There is some bad luck affecting his season. His .277 batting average on balls in play is 33 points lower than what he had in 2021-2022. His xwOBA is .377, expected BA is .294, and his xSLG is .503. But the biggest issue is his barrel rate going from 15.1% at its peak in 2021 to 11.2% this season.
Raw power isn’t the issue, but he just needs to lift the ball more. He has a 108 wRC+ since the start of July. League average GB% is 42.5%. His line drive rate is 17% (average is 20.1%), while his flyball rate is 36.8% (average is 37.4%). I’m not saying he needs to go full Joey Gallo, flyball-0r-bust with his approach, but a guy like him should be lifting the ball more than he is.
He needs to get angry at the ball. Plain and simple.
He’s really good at pulling a ground ball right at the 3b with a guy on 1st. Usually on the 1st pitch of the at bat.
Great, with all the said he’s just an above average hitter…
Will the Rays have enough healthy players to field a team in the postseason? Jeez, they are already down to either Civale or Littell as a number three starter (I’ll take the latter, thank you), and are missing multiple starters. This season started as a banger, it is ending up as a bandaid.
They’ve managed well even with the injuries, just doesnt seem to stop with them. Wouldnt mind a TB vs Balt ALCS regardless.
Despite the down numbers the Jays need Vlad to DH. Horwitz or Biggio play 1B, Schneider 2B, Merrifield LF, Varsho left bench.
After reading through these comments; really happy for Twins fans – seriously…
Fourth generation Reds fan here and have read daily for who knows how long so get it, a bit anyway…