The offseason will get underway no later than this weekend. While the first few days will be defined by option decisions and qualifying offers, the focus turns to arbitration-eligible players shortly thereafter.
As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for that group. Those figures are not locked in, with teams free to decline to tender contracts to anyone on their 40-man roster who isn’t already on a guaranteed deal. A non-tender sends a player directly to free agency without exposing them to waivers. This offseason’s non-tender deadline is Friday, November 17.
Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary by that date. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money within the next couple weeks. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below the projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing, which typically runs from mid-February into the beginning of March.
With the non-tender deadline a couple weeks away, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising.
At least a few of these players will likely be traded within the first couple weeks of the offseason, as some teams will have more willingness than others to accommodate various projected salaries. Hunter Renfroe, Gio Urshela and Kevin Newman were all traded in deals of this ilk last fall.
Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:
Catchers
- Christian Bethancourt (Rays), $2.3MM
- Cam Gallagher (Guardians), $1.3MM
- Kyle Higashioka (Yankees), $2.3MM
- Carson Kelly (Tigers), $3.5MM team option*
- Andrew Knizner (Cardinals), $2MM
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox), $1.7MM
- Austin Nola (Padres), $2.35MM
- Jacob Stallings (Marlins), $3.6MM
- Garrett Stubbs (Phillies), $900K
- Jose Trevino (Yankees), $2.7MM
First Basemen
- Dominic Smith (Nationals), $4.3MM
- Rowdy Tellez (Brewers), $5.9MM
Second Basemen
- Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays), $2.5MM
- Kyle Farmer (Twins), $6.6MM
- Luis Guillorme (Mets), $1.7MM
- Nicky Lopez (Braves), $3.9MM
- Josh Rojas (Mariners), $3.5MM
- Luis Urias (Red Sox), $4.7MM
Third Basemen
- Nick Senzel (Reds), $3MM
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies), $1.7MM
- Abraham Toro (Brewers), $1.3MM
- Ramon Urias (Orioles), $2MM
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs), $2.6MM
Shortstops
- Garrett Hampson (Marlins), $1.3MM
- Jorge Mateo (Orioles), $2.9MM
- Andrew Velazquez (Braves), $740K
Center Fielders
- Nick Gordon (Twins), $1MM
- Trent Grisham (Padres), $4.9MM
- Sam Hilliard (Braves), $1.1MM
- Trayce Thompson (White Sox), $1.7MM
Corner Outfielders
- Miguel Andujar (Pirates), $2.2MM
- Akil Baddoo (Tigers), $1.7MM
- Jake Bauers (Yankees), $1.7MM
- Seth Brown (Athletics), $2.4MM
- Jake Cave (Phillies), $1.4MM
- Franchy Cordero (Yankees), $1.6MM
- Clint Frazier (White Sox), $900K
- Connor Joe (Pirates), $2MM
- Ramon Laureano (Guardians), $4.7MM
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks), $1.61MM
- Tim Locastro (Mets), $1.6MM
- Ryan McKenna (Orioles), $740K
- Billy McKinney (Yankees), $1.2MM
- Austin Meadows (Tigers), $4.3MM
- Raimel Tapia (Rays), $2.4MM
Designated Hitter
- Daniel Vogelbach (Mets), $2.6MM
Starting Pitchers
- Kolby Allard (Braves), $1MM
- Domingo German (Yankees), $4.4MM
- Elieser Hernandez (Mets), $1.6MM
- Dakota Hudson (Cardinals), $3.7MM
- Cole Irvin (Orioles), $1.8MM
- Peter Lambert (Rockies), $1.2MM
- Michael Soroka (Braves), $3MM
- Jose Suarez (Angels), $1.1MM
- Touki Toussaint (White Sox), $1.7MM
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers), $2.4MM
- Jake Woodford (Cardinals), $1.1MM
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers), $11.6MM
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves), $1MM
Right-Handed Relievers
- Albert Abreu (Yankees), $900K
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks), $1.1MM
- Jorge Alcala (Twins), $1MM
- Yency Almonte (Dodgers), $1.9MM
- Matt Bowman (Yankees), $1MM
- Jeff Brigham (Mets), $1.1MM
- Nick Burdi (Cubs), $800K
- Matt Bush (Rangers), $2.1MM
- JT Chargois (Marlins), $1.2MM
- Yonny Chirinos (Braves), $2MM
- Adam Cimber (Blue Jays), $3.2MM
- Taylor Clarke (Royals), $2.2MM
- Sam Coonrod (Mets), $900K
- Jimmy Cordero (Yankees), $900K
- Dylan Covey (Phillies), $1MM
- John Curtiss (Mets), $1MM
- J.P. Feyereisen (Dodgers), $1MM
- Matt Foster (White Sox), $740K
- Trevor Gott (Mets), $2MM
- Ben Heller (Braves), $900K
- Jonathan Hernandez (Rangers), $1.3MM
- Codi Heuer (Cubs), $785K
- James Karinchak (Guardians), $1.9MM
- Derek Law (Reds), $1.4MM
- Trevor Richards (Blue Jays), $2.4MM
- Drew Smith (Mets), $2.3MM
- Josh Staumont (Royals), $1.2MM
- Cole Sulser (Rays), $900K
- Dillon Tate (Orioles), $1.5MM
- Trent Thornton (Mariners), $1.4MM
- Michael Tonkin (Braves), $1MM
- Lou Trivino (Yankees), $4.1MM
- Jacob Webb (Orioles), $1.2MM
- Ryan Weber (Yankees), $900K
Left-Handed Relievers
- Keegan Akin (Orioles), $800K
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers), $2MM
- Jalen Beeks (Rays), $1.8MM
- Josh Fleming (Rays), $1MM
- Tim Hill (Padres), $2.4MM
- Joe Mantiply (Diamondbacks), $1MM
- Brett Martin (Rangers), $1.28MM
- Adrian Morejon (Padres), $900K
- Sean Newcomb (Athletics), $1MM
- Jose Quijada (Angels), $1MM
- Josh Taylor (Royals), $1.3MM
- Ryan Yarbrough (Dodgers), $3.8MM
* Kelly’s projected arbitration salary exceeds the option price
That is most of the 2024 Angels!
Dan Vogelbach go figure
Sabermetrics yahoos like guys like Vogelbach who can’t hit, run or field, because he takes up a lot of space, I mean because he gets on base.
Unfortunately these sabermetrics yahoos reside in the Mets FO where Billy Eppler held court until recently while most of us who understand the game of baseball as fans and coaches including Buck Showalter know better.
I like Old Hoss personally but he needs to have his bat surgically removed from his shoulder.
A man that big should lead the league in being hit by pitches. 😉
Vogelbach provides value cuz he is cheap for that level of production. He is misused when more than a bench bat.
Vogelbach has zero value. A walk is a net positive for the opposite team as he clogs up the base paths and can’t get to the next base. You realize the point is to score and not get to first base?
Possibly the dumbest thing written in these comments, and that’s a low bar.
Pretty dumb stuff. Vogelbach is basically a slower less proven version of Kyle Shwarber who most people would agree is elite at hitting bombs and getting on base.
What sort of monkeys think sabermetrics doesn’t take into account hitting, running, or fielding?
or Dan Vogelbach full figured?
Bye Rowdy. Easiest non-tender decision out there.
Has your Rowdy friend settled down? 😉
Falvey can’t wait to offer Woodruff a guaranteed 2 year deal + option.
It sorta makes sense to non tender Woodruff but it’s still so weird to see him on a list with all these other guys
He’ll be traded or brought back. Absolutely no reason to lose him for nothing.
He is worth nothing at this point They could pay him his $11.6M, but they are unlikely to get anything out him for the $11.6M.
I’d completely forgotten about the shoulder injury.
Raimel Tapia is a free agent, or so I thought
I think Tapia didn’t accumulate enough MLB service time in 2023 to reach free agency. He would have if he had been on a big-league roster most of the season, but he wasn’t.
Steven Okert (Marlins) is also a non-tender candidate. Too many LH relievers already in that bullpen.
I would welcome it, but Okert has performed well enough to have trade interest.
Yeah, I think they can keep him and try to trade him later. He has very good K- rate, so has value.
This is a tender subject.
Or a tender trap.
Love the guy but Mike Yastrzemski should be on this list.
Was on the IL three times and he’s not getting any younger.
He’s projected for around $9M, that’s the straw.
He probably won’t be non-tendered but he’s borderline.
That’s how I feel about Alex Verdugo
Problem with both of them is if you ditch them, who takes their spot?
Funny thing is That Astros should want both those guys. They both play solid/good defense and hit well vs RHP.
I actually just mentioned Yaz as an almost ideal offseason target just this morning on an Astros chat board.
FWIW it was Mauricio Dubon, Jose Urquidy, and a lottery ticket pitching prospect Jamie Melendez for Yaz and Luke Jackson. Sounds like Giants fans might think that’s a great deal if they want to NT him.
Verdugo was a near three win player (2.6 rWAR). He’s not being non-tendered.
And they need to have something to show for that awful trade.
With a new GM, the Mookie trade belongs in the past … unless you’re like me and blame ownership and Mookie for not getting a deal done.
Dewey, a continued effect of that failure to keep Mookie (he’s a HOFer and possibly the NL MVP; figure out the luxury tax later) is their direct pivot was to give Devers $300 million, and holding my breath in hopes that Raffy hits .290 and earns his paycheck (he did not this year)
Dave, if they tender him do they have to sign him. i.e. could they tender and still either rescind the offer or still trade him. Because if an agreement could take until February and they acquire other outfielders I guess I’m saying they might not be obligated to pay him. Mr Franco? Does this make sense or was it confusing?
@ claude raymond
Not sure if this has changed with the new CBA that was reached in ’22. But prior to that, they could still release him before spring training and not pay the salary.
If they release him during the first 15 days of ST, they owe him 50% of the salary. 15-30 days they owe 75%. After that, they owe the whole amount.
wow, thx Geoff. good knowledge
Claude-
Also- yes they can tender him and then talk contract (ie- Extension to lower AAV, etc.)
I respect your opinion Dave but I couldn’t disagree with you more. Yaz had a fine year despite an 0 for 16 finish. He posted a 2.3 WAR with just 381 PA and is an excellent fielder, baserunner and overall instinctive player. He is also my favorite player on the Giants so I’m biased but he did improve significantly on his subpar year last year and I expect him to be fully healthy and have an even better year in 2024. And now that Craw is likely gone, in my opinion Yaz and Webb are the 2 faces of the franchise… that is until Ohtani arrives.
My biggest disagreement with the potential non-tender list is I don’t see Trent Grisham being non-tendered despite his sub .200 BA. He can beat a team in many ways.
I hear you Wilmer.
The fact Yaz is probably the face of the franchise is the problem. He’s good, not great. And I don’t think he’s going to improve at 33 years old, I think he’s starting his slide downward.
I’d rather SF took Yaz’ potential $9M salary and put it toward Bellinger(hurts me to say) or Yamamoto.
And this is where you’ll probably disagree with me: I think Meckler puts up better numbers than Yaz next year if given the chance. Or even Fitzgerald.
It’s all about making the team better and that could mean bye bye to Yaz.
With you, I love the young guys the Giants are bringing up. I predict Yaz will be more in the 8.5mil range and compared to Haniger, Pederson and even Conforto in my opinion will be a bargain.
Meckler is a gamer and I’m particularly a fan of Fitzgerald and I agree that the outfield is crowded with veterans. Conforto can take over the DH duties and Haniger is a wait and see. Anyway, likely a moot point because Yaz is really popular (at least with me).
Yeah no, his OPS+ last year was 113 and he had his best year defensively, and his WAR was more than all other outfielders on the Giants combined…he’s not going anywhere
Hudson knizer and Woodford or the cars will get tendered
Why Parick Wisdom?
Because Wisdom has regressed every single year he’s been in the league and it’s to the point now where the Cubs are realizing that baseball doesn’t matter to Wisdom.
You may be willing to live with the power potential if Wisdom did anything else well (like his initial season with the Cubs where he played plus defense at third) but his defense is unplayable anywhere on the field. His speed went from plus plus to average, he’s a liability on the base paths in the rare occasion he gets on base, he is awful against off-handed pitching so platooning is pointless and his situational hitting is non-existent.
In 2023, he hit 23 homers in 268 at-bats, .789 OPS… not bad. But…. if the Cubs are not going to give him more at-bats in 2024, his $2.6MM projected salary may not be worth paying. They cut his PA’s in half from 2022-2023 which tells you a non-tender is definitely in the cards.
I don’t care how many home runs he hits when his defense is awful, strikes out 40% of the time and doesn’t walk.
We aren’t talking about Kyle Schwarber hitting 40 home runs and walking at. 20% clip. Wisdom literally doesn’t do anything except swing out of his shoes.
Well he’s definitely not the same caliber player as Kyle Schwarber, but can still provide value as a DH to some other team. If he gets non-tendered, I’d bet he gets picked up rather quickly.
My guess is all the Cubs listed (Heuer, Burdi, Wisdom) are non-tendered. All three are on the 40 man roster which stands at 39 right now (per Roster Resource) and doesn’t include Gomes or Hendricks at this point.
I’m not sure when the 60 day IL stuff re-engages (Heuer) but the Cubs have to start scraping that list to allow flexibility through the offseason and leading up.
I’m guessing guys like Mastrobuoni, Leiter Jr (poor guy–yearly event), Rucker and maybe a few others are facing the DFA line to open some more spots for now.
Wisdom is a no brainer and yes, he will get snatched up, but doesn’t really have a spot on the Cubs roster to be valuable.
We aren’t talking about Kyle Schwarber hitting 40 home runs and walking at. 20% clip.
========================
He is Schwarber’s twin.
Except that last year Wisdom has more HR/AB, a better average, a higher bWAR/650 PAs, and was a better fielder.
Wisdom is a no brainer and yes, he will get snatched up,
===============================
As a RS fan, I’d like to see Turner return, but if he opts out, Wisdom would be a good alternative. He’s averaged 42 HRs/600 ABs over the past three years, and at least owns a 3B/1B glove, and the righty bat is a good alternative to when we rest Devers and Casas.
You can have Wisdom and maybe someone from the Red Sox can get through Wisdoms thick skull there is more to baseball than swinging at every pitch as hard as he can.
The reason Wisdom has to go is because he’s gotten worse every single year. Worse defensively, worse offensively, worse plate disciple, he can’t hit fastballs even when they are in the zone.
Yes, but he hits lots of home runs! So stupid.
Let these folks have Wisdom on their team. They’ll realize very quickly that he’s not “Kyle Schwarber’s twin”
What would the difference be? I’ll concede the walks. What else is different?
Soroka is a no. I’d try to release him and re-sign him on a discounted contract.
He’s a gamble, but for $3MM, the Braves could use him for relief pitching until he builds back up. They need SP especially if they decline Morton’s option.
He’s definitely a no. He will be probably offered a MLiB contract from the Braves to clear him from the 40 man roster.
@ MLBTR – service time is prevalent information into non tender decisions. Y’all should be including that on every player line.
I don’t know what extra consideration you’d have for service time. These are all simply arb-eligible players in support roles; the service time is baked into the projected salary already.
Service time and options remaining….the options remaining thing is pretty important. Service time regarding how long you have control of the player is important as well. But if you can send them down really moves the needle for certain teams.
Control doesn’t mean a thing if you’re due to overpay a player, and that’s all this is an exercise for: projected pay for projected performance
I’ll be interested to see who takes a chance on Austin Meadows. I’m guessing the Tigers won’t..
I wonder if Meadows even plays. I hope he’s ok but if his anxiety is that bad, he may give up baseball.
The guy missed an entire season due to anxiety issues. I think he’s at a point where he’ll have to build his value back up in Korea or Japan if he expects a future in MLB.
2 seasons. But he made over $8 million while he was on the DL.
Minor league deal at the most.
Trevor May did really well after his anxiety related stint on the D.L.
I’d take the over the over
I think/ hope they keep Newcomb
Some of these guys who get non-tendered will immediately come back on a NRI where they will make the same money “if/once” they make the major league roster. The level of certainty of “if” vs “once” is variable but has to do with when other guys can get put back on the 60-day IL in Spring Training.
Jose Trevino will resume being the Yankees’ starting catcher.
Trevino and Wells seem to be the likely catching duo. Higgy seems to have reached the end with the team, but I still expect them to sign him and then trade him before opening day.
With Wells as the backup and Higgy being traded.
I wish the Blue Jays didn’t have quite so many black holes in the lineup already because Urias would be a nice Chapman replacement should he get non tendered by the Orioles. But I don’t think they can afford another offseason prioritizing defense only players.
Hope the Os tender Urias and Mateo. Both league experienced, need them for another run in 2024? Unless FO wants to go with more of an inexperienced line up, Baby Birds like Westburg, Ortiz, Norby and Mayo get “cups of coffee” only in 14? 100 plus wins in 2013, go for it again in 14!
I think there’s a 0 percent chance that Urias doesn’t get tendered.
He might get traded but I can’t see the O’s losing him for nothing. I think Mateo’s bench speed and D at that rate is reasonable also. One will have to go though.
I could see the Cubs acquiring Mateo as an upgrade over Mastrobuoni as their backup SS/2B/3B. Mateo could be part of a 3B matchup job share with Madrigal and Morel until Matt Shaw proves he is ready and capable of playing 3B around the trade deadline.
Urias is fine if the Jays land a big OF bat or two, Springer DH’s more. Big if.
11 guys on the Yankees. That seems like a lot.
Grisham would be a nice pickup for several teams.
Over/under 57.5 wins if you built a MLB team off this list?
I think this is the best possible line-up, rotation, and bullpen you could put together with these players:
C: Christian Bethancourt/ Jose Trevino platoon
1B: Rowdy Tellez
2B: Kyle Farmer
3B: Edmundo Sosa
SS: Garrett Hampson
LF: Connor Joe/Austin Meadows platoon
CF: Trent Grisham
RF: Ramon Laureano
DH: Dan Vogelbach/Patrick Wisdom platoon
Rotation: Woodruff, Soroka, German, Ynoa, Irvin
Bullpen: Tate, Feyerinsen, Karinchak, Heuer, Burdi, Hill, Morejon
Remaining bench: Jorge Mateo, Nick Gordon
I might take the over on 57.5 wins with this line-up, rotation, bullpen, and bench.
Grisham is reaching the end of his shelf life in the majors. Still has speed and a decent glove but won’t hit over .215 again unless hitting in a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park. A platoon option at best and overpriced at that.
Yeah, poke Citizens Bank Park in the eye. Feeling better about yourself?
@the voice inside my head,
Do your homework and don’t be so lazy.
oddsshark.com/mlb/best-and-worst-ballparks-for-hom…
If CBP is such a “band box” why don’t visiting teams hit as well there?
That being said I agree about Sosa. But I’d like to see the Phils keel Covey. He filled a roll for them and did it pretty well once he settled in.
Agreed love the breakdown
Ramon Urias starts over Sosa.
Over. Didn’t you see Andujar and Clint Frazier? Two cornerstone players that you can build a team around
nunzio1749
I’d actually love to see Touki in a yankee uniform I think he can be very good and helpful if he can manage to stay healthy
If I were the Braves, I’d definitely keep Lopez because of his excellent defensive infield versatility. Backups of who are capable of contributing at his level are few and far between. You realize it most when a starter goes down and you don’t have them.
All the other Braves potential non-tenders I would let go.
I’d take Tonkin and a flyer on Ynoa(he should have a full spring training). Love what Lopez did, but a bench piece at nearly 4 mil….i dont see them tendering him. Just have a feeling that the braves are going to have a million minor league deals this spring, mostly starting pitchers. They need to sign at last 2 SP at a minimum (outside of Fried and Strider)
I’m fairly certain they’ll bring Tonkin back because they need a long man in the bullpen, and Tonkin’s cheaper than Chirinos. I have no clue on Ynoa, it’s been so long since he’s been healthy. Most of the Braves non-tender candidates aren’t going to make it to the deadline; the Braves need to clear 8 roster spots this week for players coming off of the 60-day IL. Ben Heller’s already been outrighted, and Sam Hilliard went to Baltimore on a waiver claim.
For the Marlins:
Hampson – that’s a maybe.
Chargois – Maybe. but not something I’d do.
Stallings – Is there any doubt, especially since Alcantara isn’t going to play in 2024, so the “Sandy’s Personal Catcher” job title is gone.
Davis – Unless he’s still hurt, I doubt it. It wouldn’t make sense.
Akil Baddoo should have value in trade. He doesn’t really fit the Detroit line up, with Greene, Meadows and Carpenter all being LH. He does have tools, is young, and is still cheap.
Kelly should get cut, as he showed little while with Detroit. Turnbull should be tendered as $2.4MM for a potential mid rotation starter is nothing. Alexander, if healthy, fits a need for a lefty in the pen. If a health risk, he’s gone.
Few trade candidates here. Seth Brown has future Brewers DH written all over him Farmer will be starting for the Jays.
Brown is not a bad left fielder. He just has terrible platoon splits.
The article has Kyle Farmer listed at 2B but he’s really a utility IF — 3B, SS, 1B even emergency C.
Assuming he is healthy and Dodgers non-tender him, Ryan Yarbrough is the type of player A.J. Preller would be looking for on a 1-year prove-it contract with second year option. With several non-tenders and FAs on the Padres 40-man roster, Yarbrough could be a nice back-of-the-rotation or long relief option.
I can see the Braves doing the same.
The Athletics will non-tender anybody over the MLB minimum salary. Seth Brown and Sean Newcomb will be looking for new teams (and probably can’t wait to go looking for a new organization).
Yeah youre wrong about that. A’s will tender both a contract. Whether they should it not is another question.
Seth Brown does hit the ball hard…when he hits it.
Please non-tender Ty France
I could see a team that needs a 1B taking a flyer on him for a just signed lotto ticket
pirates.
posted below about Wisdom before seeing this.
wouldn’t mind seeing Patrick Wisdom as the Pirates every day 1B
he hasn’t played much 1B in recent years, but the market is thin and he brings a power tool that can help the Bucs 2nd half of the order
Thanks for the article. There’s a lot of effort put into it.
Everyone of these left handed pitchers will get raises. That’s baseball
Lefties in the pen tend to stock around a while.
Reds will tender Derek Law. A 3.60 ERA over 55IP with 3 starts and 2 saves for $1.4MM is a bargain. Derek did have a couple bad outings late in the year,but most likely from fatigue, as the Reds BP was overused. Reds staff will need Law’s versatility in 2024. He’s an integral part of that “waiver-wire warriors” relief corp including Gibaut, Youmg, F. Cruz, Duarte, Law and (soon to be gone) FA B. Farmer.
They will non tender Senzel and Barrero just to clear the 40 man roster spots. I could see them doing that with Law and re-signing him later to a minor league deal with a spring invite. Given the bullpen as is, he would make the team, although I am hoping they will strengthen the setup guys to Diaz. With Greene and Lodolo around, they will need a couple long relievers.
Drew Smith should be pitching in a Sunday Softball beer league. I feel bad for the GM that is stupid enough to pick him up based on his “decent stats”. There is a reason why the Mets have gone threw so many GMs, he is the biggest reason they lose just about every close game
Why isn’t Vladdy Guerrero Jr. on this Non tender list…The Guy is NOWHERE NEAR WORTH $20mil this year…
Josh Rojas will NOT be non-tendered.
0 chance Sosa is non-tendered
Sosa would be on the RS the next morning if he got non-tendered.
Victor Robles of the Nats should also be on the list. He most likely would not be non-tendered, but there’s gotta be at least a 10% chance. Or he could be traded.
Robles is already signed for 24, he can’t be non-tendered.
He has a club option for 2024. If declined he remains arbitration eligible and could be non-tendered
Could do it by team.
Knizner will be given a contract even if the plan is to trade him. Hudson will probably not be given an offer. Pitching is scarce so they could keep him anyway.
Look at all those relievers for the Cardinals!!! <>