The Blue Jays announced this morning that the club has exercised its two-year club option on the services of veteran right-hander Chad Green. Green will now earn $21MM total across the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Green signed an unusual contract with Toronto this past offseason that afforded the club a three-year, $27MM team option, which if declined would offer Green a one-year, $6.5MM player option. If both of those options were declined, the Blue Jays would then have a final two-year, $21MM option. Evidently, the first club option and Green’s player option were both declined before Toronto picked up the two-year option.
Green, 32, missed most of the 2022 and ’23 campaigns while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. A look at Green’s basic run prevention stats would indicate that the right-hander struggled in his return to action in 2023, given his 5.25 ERA that was 17% worse than league average. That doesn’t tell the whole story, however, as Green pitched just twelve innings with Toronto this year and had excellent peripheral stats. He struck out a whopping 30.8% of batters faced while walking just 7.7% with one home run allowed, giving him a much more palatable 2.67 FIP.
That sort of performance is much more in line with Green’s career numbers. After an uneven rookie season where he was used primarily as a starter in 2016, Green became one of the most reliable set-up men in the game from 2017-2022, as he posted a 2.96 ERA (147 ERA+) with a 3.01 FIP and a 33.4% strikeout rate. Impressive as those numbers are, they’re actually somewhat bogged down by a brief return to starting in 2019. Over the course of his entire career, Green sports a sterling 2.88 ERA across 338 innings out of the bullpen. That’s the sixth-best figure among all relievers with at least 300 innings of work since Green’s debut in 2016, surpassed only by Josh Hader, Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, Blake Treinen, and Aroldis Chapman.
Of course, it’s an open question whether or not Green can reach those heights again in his age-33 and -34 campaigns. After all, Green heads into his mid-thirties coming off a lengthy rehab from surgery. While his velocity did not appear to be impacted during his brief run in the majors this year, it’s hard to say what sort of impact the surgery could have on him over a full season. Between his age, the fact that he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2021, and the volatility of relievers in general, there’s a fair bit of risk in offering Green a two-year, $21MM guarantee even as the righty clearly has the potential to be among the better relievers in baseball.
Given that combination of risk and potentially significant reward, the two-year $21MM pact seems like a reasonable price point for both sides of the arrangement. The interesting structure of the contract left MLBTR readers divided in a recent poll, with each of those four possible outcomes (Green hitting free agency and each of the three potential options being picked up) receiving between 20% and 30% of the total vote. That being said, with the Toronto bullpen scheduled to lose Jordan Hicks and Jay Jackson to free agency this offseason, retaining Green gives the club a quality set-up man to pair with Erik Swanson in front of closer Jordan Romano in 2024.
WHY???
He was damn good his last 6 appearances. Looked like his old self. If he is Chad Green of old this is a bargain.
He’s a top reliever when good, and that’s not a high price for two years for a team that views itself as a contender. I did think they might try to negotiate some different terms, but I figured he’d be back regardless.
I liked the 3 yr @ 27 Mil better but the Jays obviously took a dumb gamble and almost lost Green to free agency where I’m sure he would have signed with another team for a bit more term and maybe same or more money. Free agency can work GM’s into a frenzy.
Would you like door A), B), or C) Toronto?
Toronto: We’ll take door C) Bob!
Cause he’s a good back end bullpen piece, who also gives them a trade chip if things don’t go well in either of the next 2 seasons
Not sure how much trade value he’ll have with that salary attached to him.
He looked good, def wanted him vack.
Solid stats under the hood. A bit unlucky perhaps?
Hmm, really thought he would pick up his option. Good call by his agent.
Why would Toronto decline a 3/27 option only to pick up a 2/21 option? If he is worth 21 million for two year, surely he is worth 6 million for the third.
Probably gambled that he would take the 1/6.5
Because he’s 32 and they save $6 mil if they are wrong and he doesn’t return to who he was before Tommy John.
I’m guessing the Jays are probably wanting to limit their payroll for the 3rd year so they have room to sign Bo and Vladdy.
Vladdy kind of sucks and it’s been getting worse.
They can’t play on their own, so I don’t see that as a viable reason.
Limiting relievers to 1 and 2 yr deals is always good practice. I’m high on Chad Green, but relievers are so volatile.
They are, but I doubt the price will be much cheaper than $6MM in 2026 for a quality bullpen arm.
Hmm, that’s a strange call. I would have rather taken this money and invested in Hicks at 4/40 or slightly more. Very curious decision.
You are not getting hicks for 4/40 lol.
Hicks is an interesting case. He’s really young. I’m thinking he takes something like 4/50with an opt out and hunts a closer job.
He could potentially set himself up for a larger payday
Hicks is going to get double that contract, it’ll be something like 5 years $75 to $80M, not many teams will want to do the 5th year, but he’s going to have teams fighting for him.
So it would have been 9 million for 3 years. They ended up at 10.5 million for 2 years. Hoping he’d accept the 6.5 for 1 year??
10.5 a year is a lot of payroll for a reliever!
Not really. It’s about 6% of their payroll. Seems appropriate for what Green brings to the tables
6% of their payroll and he’s now in the top 10 in reliever of pay. I like Chad Green but it’s an overpay.
You’re comparing pre arb salaries to a free agent contract. How is that in any way relevant?
There’s no relievers projected anywhere near 9-10 per in arbi. Sewald has the highest projection at 7.3 and then you’ve got Devin Williams at 6.5. They could sign longer deals but that seems unlikely.
Free agency will likely add a player or two to the top 10 perhaps, but I think at best you’re paying Green as a top 15 reliever.
You just made my point.
You’re comparing Bautista, Sewald, Williams salaries to a free agent to say that Chad green is overpaid because he’s in the top 10% but he’s in the top 10% because he reached free agency, it’s the reality of the contract constructs of baseball.
Do you think that sewald and Williams contracts will be less than Greens when they reach free agency?
It’s not an over pay. It’s a right on pay. They could have got him for a bargain at 9 Mil.
The article has Green in the same company as 6 other relievers, go and see what they made $$$
“10.5 a yr is a lot of payroll”…I agree with both of you, 10.5 IS a lot for a reliever, but obviously Toronto feels he’ll revert back to his career norms, elite lock down 7th & 8 inning reliever. I’m not big on gambling, but Chad Green is a good gamble imo. 10.5 M is the going rate for elite 7th & 8th inning pitchers.
Chad Green seeing that green today
they eventually will move Romano to the set up roll and rightfully give the closer gig to Cabrera.
Cabrera’s a FA & wants to start,
Yeah, but still
Cabrera’s a FA? By what mechanism? He should have two more arbitration years and I don’t think the team will non-tender him. And I’m pretty sure the dreams of him starting ended a long time ago.
Yup, my bad Good catch. I was thinking Hicks
Hicks wants to start? I guess the Cardinals tried that. Doesn’t seem to throw enough strikes to be a starter, though the Jays had him in the zone for a couple of months. No harm in exploring if there’s a team that would like him as a starter.
Good signing. Big overpay considering age and health but if he comes back anywhere near what he was consistently it will be a good signing. Consistently is the operative word here.
I am more concerned about the the players with weight issues that underperformed last year: Vladdy Jr, Manoah, and Kirk.
That trade for Varsho is going to bite bigtime when Moreno shows himself to be a star like it was called at the time of the trade.
BlueJays fans and I am one, don’t expect anything more from the Jays this year over any other year. There are too many holes and Atkins only shoots about 30% accuracy when he throws darts to build a team.
Are you Mr Riley?
Extremely fair deal if he’s back at 100%.
3 years/$23.25M for a reliever like Chad Green at even 80% is at worst a fair deal. At 100% it’s a slight bargain.
This was the sensible option for all parties.
You got next to nothing for the first year though. (As expected) It’s really $2 years for 23.5. Well 2 years and 12 appearances in 2023.
They don’t have to bid against every other team in free agency for his services plus they get him to see their facilities and get to see all his medicals and his work ethic all for just over a couple Mil for 2023. Not a bad deal for the Jays. Plus they got a few good outings.
Whether it’s by design or the guy throws one pitch after perfect medicals and goes down for most of the year doesn’t matter. It’s still a 3 year contract for a total of $23.25M.
Plus he did make some appearances this year.
Average number of appearances in a full healthy season for Green: approximately 56.
12 appearances is 21.4285 etc percent of 56. They’re valuing him at around $7.75M per season, so he provided them with $1.661M value the first year, so yes it’s basically a 2 year/$21.6M deal.
That’s still very close to fair market value for his services.
Always liked this guy – he was a workhorse.