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Chad Green

Blue Jays Release Chad Green

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The Blue Jays released Chad Green yesterday after the veteran right-hander cleared waivers, according to a team announcement. Green is now eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs. He had been designated for assignment by the Jays just prior to the trade deadline.

A veteran of ten MLB seasons, the 34-year-old righty has struggled badly in 45 appearances for the Jays this year with a 5.56 ERA and an eye-popping 6.70 FIP across 43 2/3 innings of work. Green’s 6.8% walk rate remains more or less in line with the best seasons of his career, but his strikeout rate has dipped considerably. After punching out 32.4% of his opponents through the end of the 2023 campaign, he struck out batters at just a 21.9% clip last year. That number has dropped even further this season, down to 18.4%. In addition to the lack of whiffs, Green has allowed 14 home runs this year. That’s the most of any reliever in baseball so far this season, and only two relievers (Enyel De Los Santos and Tyler Alexander) allowed more homers than that over the entirety of the 2024 campaign.

It’s an ugly profile overall, and it seems unlikely that any team would be particularly enthused about offering him an immediate spot in their bullpen between the lack of strikeouts and his 16.4% barrel rate allowed. Certain underlying metrics do offer some room for optimism, however. Green’s 4.26 SIERA is only slightly below average, and his K-BB% is in line with quality relief arms like Caleb Ferguson and Taylor Rogers. Perhaps there’s a team out there that sees enough in Green that they’re willing to take a flier on him in the form of a minor league deal. Even with his poor numbers this year, it would certainly be understandable if a team decided to do so.

That’s because Green has a long track record of success in the majors prior to this year. From 2017 to 2022, Green was a dominant late-inning relief arm for the Yankees with a 2.96 ERA, a 33.4% strikeout rate, and a 3.01 FIP. He picked up ten saves in that time while joining arms like Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, and David Robertson at the back of the Yankees’ bullpen. Perhaps a team sees some sort of adjustments they can help Green make in order to get back to being a viable setup man; his heater is still averaging 95.2 mph this year, and while advanced metrics like Stuff+ have signaled a decline in the quality of Green’s offerings in recent years, he still grades at average to slightly above average.

As for the Blue Jays, they’ll be on the hook for what’s left of his $10.5MM salary for the 2025 campaign. If Green gets added to an MLB roster at some point this year, he’ll be paid a prorated portion of the MLB minimum by his new club and that amount will be deducted from what Toronto owes him. With newly-added relievers Louis Varland and Seranthony Dominguez now in the fold, the Jays figure to do just fine without Green in their late-inning mix even if he does manage to turn things around with a new organization.

Blue Jays Designate Chad Green For Assignment

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After acquiring right-handed reliever Seranthony Domínguez from the Orioles this afternoon, the Blue Jays have designated fellow righty reliever Chad Green for assignment to open up space on their active and 40-man rosters.

Green, 34, has some good seasons on his track record but 2025 isn’t one of them. He has thrown 43 2/3 innings for the Jays this year with a 5.56 earned run average. He came into today’s game with a subpar 18.6% strikeout rate. He has allowed 14 home runs on the year, the most of any reliever in the majors.

The Jays are in first place in the American League East and looking to bolster their roster ahead of the deadline. That includes making bullpen additions. Domínguez is the first but there are likely more relievers coming in the next 48 hours. Green’s subpar results have made him the first casualty of the club’s deadline moves.

He’ll now go into DFA limbo. The Jays can try to trade him before the deadline but likely won’t find much interest. In addition to his struggles this year, Green is making a $10.5MM salary. That came about as part of the convoluted deal he signed with the Jays going into 2023. He was recovering from Tommy John surgery at the time. The deal paid him $2.25MM in 2023, then there was a multi-stage option. The Jays first had to decide about a three-year, $27MM club option. If they declined, Green would then have to decide on a one-year, $6.25MM player option. If he declined that, the Jays had a second option, valued at $21MM over two years.

Green returned from his surgery layoff late in 2023 and tossed 12 innings for the Jays. His 5.25 ERA wasn’t great but he struck out 30.8% of batters faced. The Jays turned down the three-year option and Green turned down his player option, but then the Jays triggered the two-year option. That came with a higher average annual value than the other choice, though it was a lesser overall commitment.

The Jays got 53 1/3 innings with a 3.21 ERA out of Green last year, though his strikeout rate dropped to 21.9%. It fell even farther this year, which led to worsening results and pushed him off the roster.

Any interest in Green would be based on a return to form. With the Yankees from 2016 to 2022, he tossed 383 2/3 innings with a 3.17 ERA, 32.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate. His stuff still appears to be there, as he’s still averaging in the mid-90s with both of his fastballs, but it’s getting lit up.

Unless the Jays eat a bunch of his salary to facilitate a trade, Green will likely be released in the coming days. If that comes to pass, they will remain on the hook for what’s left of his salary. Any other club could then sign him and pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster. That amount would be subtracted from what the Jays pay.

Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images

Phillies Notes: Hays, Marsh, Green, Arozarena

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The Phillies and Orioles completed an intriguing trade Friday that saw Baltimore land Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache in exchange for Austin Hays, which represented something of a lengthy pursuit for Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.  The executive told reporters (including The Athletic’s Matt Gelb and The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber) that “I’ve actually tried to acquire him the last two trading deadlines, and [the Orioles] were asking for much more than we wanted to give.”

The O’s finally budged, perhaps due to both Dominguez addressing Baltimore’s bullpen needs, and Hays’ increasingly expendable nature within a crowded Orioles outfield.  An ice-cold start to the season and then a four-week IL stint due to a calf strain led to Hays’ playing time being reduced, though he has hit quite well in a more limited capacity over the last two-plus months.  Even with the first six weeks of the season essentially being a wash, Hays has gotten his offensive production back above league average, delivering a 102 wRC+ from a .255/.316/.395 slash line over 175 plate appearances.

It isn’t too far removed from the 108 wRC+ Hays posted over 1677 PA with Baltimore from 2021-23, and his recent hot streak indicates that Hays could certainly still match or surpass that number over the rest of the 2024 campaign.  Hays’ numbers against right-handed pitching are far below his career norms, so if those stats in particular pick up, Hays will certainly put himself in line for more of a regular role in the Phillies’ lineup.

“We don’t think he’s just in a position where he has to be platooned by any means,” Dombrowski said about Hays, who for now seemingly will join with the left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh as part of a timeshare in left field.  Marsh could also be moved to center field to split time with the righty-swinging Johan Rojas should Hays force his way into everyday duty in left field.  As Lauber notes, Marsh’s own splits have cut into his playing time — Marsh has been crushing righties but struggling badly against lefties this season, thus necessitating the Phillies’ need for a right-handed bat for the outfield picture.

Addressing that need cost the Phils an experienced reliever in Dominguez, which was no small matter for a Philadelphia team that was already known to be looking for bullpen help prior to the trade.  “We just felt that for us to get a right-handed hitter we had to give up something,” Dombrowski said, and the club will now target “somebody who can pitch innings late in a game that are important innings for us, like our other guys do.”

Carlos Estevez, Tanner Scott, Kyle Finnegan, and Michael Kopech are some of the more prominent relievers linked to Philadelphia’s trade pursuits in recent weeks, and Blue Jays right-hander Chad Green is also “one of the Phillies’ top targets,” in the words of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).  Green is generally considered to be available given how the struggling Jays will be selling to some extent at the deadline, though Toronto is reportedly focusing on selling pending free agents, whereas Green is under contract through the 2025 season.

As per the unusual multi-option terms of the deal Green signed in January 2023, he ended up earning $21MM over the 2024-25 seasons, once the Blue Jays exercised the two-year version of their club option last fall.  This translates to $10.5MM in 2025 and roughly $3.5MM left in salary this season.  This is no small matter to a Phillies team that is on pace to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the third straight season, and would ideally like to avoid the third penalty tier of $277MM.  RosterResource has the Phils at roughly a $262.3MM tax number right now, and crossing the $277MM line would give the Phillies a 95% tax on any overages, plus their first pick in the 2025 draft would be dropped back by 10 spots.

The Jays could potentially eat more of Green’s salary if the Phillies were to offer a better prospect return, so there are ways for the Phils to work around the payroll issue (while leaving room for other deadline upgrades) if they decide Green is their guy on the trade market.  The veteran righty has a 1.74 ERA over 31 innings for Toronto this season, though his 3.82 SIERA is perhaps a more accurate reflection of Green’s performance.  Green has benefited greatly from a 100% strand rate and a .187 BABIP, and his 23.1% strikeout rate is a little below average, while his 7.7% walk rate is pretty respectable.

In other trade roads not taken, Lauber and Gelb both wrote that the Phillies talked with the Rays about Randy Arozarena before the outfielder was dealt to the Mariners on Thursday.  Gelb noted that Tampa Bay wanted “a top prospect” in exchange for Arozarena, but the Phils weren’t willing to part with the unknown player.

Landing Arozarena would’ve certainly counted as more of a blockbuster move to address Philadelphia’s need for a right-handed hitting outfielder.  While Dombrowski has made a habit of trading prospects for established stars during his storied front office career, it could be that the PBO didn’t want to move whatever particular minor leaguer the Rays wanted, or Dombrowski was wary in general about depleting from the Phillies’ somewhat limited farm system.

Blue Jays Plan To Keep Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman

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The Blue Jays enter next week’s trade deadline as clear sellers, but virtually all of the focus thus far has been on the rental players they can offer to other teams. Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, relievers Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards, and catcher Danny Jansen are all free agents at season’s end and thus all candidates to change hands. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that Toronto hasn’t changed its stance on hoping to contend in 2025 and as such has not been shopping either Chris Bassitt (signed through 2025) or Kevin Gausman (through 2026). As is the case with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette (both under club control through 2025), that pair of arms is generally expected to stay put.

At least with regard to Bassitt, it’s mildly surprising that the Jays aren’t more strongly contemplating a trade. The veteran righty is in year two of a three-year, $63MM contract and pitching fairly well — but it’s also his age-35 campaign. He’ll pitch all of next year at 36. Generally, when teams sign a free agent to a multi-year deal, they’re more interested in the earlier seasons of the deal and consider the final year(s) to be the cost of doing business. Toronto doesn’t have much pitching depth, so they’d need to replace Bassitt either via free agency or trade, but one would think that next year’s $21MM salary could be reallocated to a younger arm. Beyond that, Bassitt could of course net the Jays some young talent as well.

Bassitt, who’s pitching as this is being written, entered play Thursday with a 3.71 ERA, 21.3% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 41.2% grounder rate. He’s started 20 games and tossed 114 innings — an average of just over 5 2/3 innings per appearance. He’s still a clearly above-average starter, but some clubs might take this opportunity to try to add some young talent, clear some payroll off the following season’s books and reinvest that notable salary elsewhere. (The Cubs, for instance, have considered the possibility of taking that approach with Jameson Taillon.)

It’s a similar story with Gausman, although at 33 years of age with two extra years to go and in the midst of a down season, a trade involving him might not be so straightforward. Gausman’s 93.9 mph average fastball is down from last year’s 94.7 mph and from 2022’s 95 mph. His 22.9% strikeout rate is still a solid mark, but it’s way down from last year’s 31.1% clip. Ditto his 6.3% walk rate, which is slightly improved over last year’s 7.2% mark but nowhere close to his 3.9% rate from 2022.

Gausman is missing fewer bats than usual and giving up an uncharacteristic level of loud contact. This year’s 90.2 mph average exit velocity and 11.4% barrel rate are both career-worst marks, while Gausman’s 1.30 HR/9 is his worst mark since the juiced ball season in 2019. Gausman is earning $24MM this season and $23MM in each of the next two years. He’ll have a combined $54MM still owed to him as of the trade deadline.

Also signed through the 2025 season is reliever Chad Green, whom the Jays will pay $10.5MM next year. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi suggests that the Yankees are interested in a reunion, citing Green’s low ERA and status as a popular teammate in New York as part of the rationale.

It’d frankly be something of a surprise if the Yankees were interested in going down that road, however. Green’s 1.82 ERA is impressive, but the right-hander will also turn 34 next May. He’s sitting on a career-low 22.1% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate that, while solid, is the second-highest of his career. This season’s 95.3 mph average fastball is the second-lowest of his career, and Green is yielding a woeful 92.7 mph average exit velocity and 48.7% hard-hit rate — both among the worst marks in baseball.

Green’s pristine earned run average is largely a function of two things: a .192 average on balls in play that stands as the tenth-lowest in baseball among the 441 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched and a 100% strand rate. Green hasn’t allowed a single man he’s put on base to come around and score thus far. Neither of those marks are sustainable — particularly not when nearly half his batted balls are leaving the plate at 95 mph or more.

On top of all that, the Yankees are in the top tier of luxury penalization. They’d owe a 110% tax on top of Green’s salary. He’d cost them more than $7MM to rent for the remainder of the current season, and assuming they end up back in the top tax bracket next season, Green’s final year of his contract would cost the Yankees an outlandish $22.05MM. Perhaps if the Blue Jays agreed to pay down the vast majority of his contract or take back an undesirable pact, New York would indeed welcome the opportunity to bring back a popular teammate. That said, Green’s underlying numbers and the Yankees’ luxury-tax status make it hard to see how a reunion between the two parties would be realistic.

Blue Jays Place Yimi García On Injured List

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The Blue Jays announced that right-hander Yimi García has been placed on the 15-day injured list with right elbow ulnar neuritis. Left-hander Brandon Eisert was selected to the roster in a corresponding move. The Jays had two open 40-man spots as Cavan Biggio and Daniel Vogelbach were designated for assignment in recent weeks.

It’s unclear how long García will be away from the club but it’s a blow nonetheless, with the club’s bullpen having been hit hard this year. Closer Jordan Romano has twice been placed on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and is still on the shelf at the moment. He also struggled in between those IL stints with an earned run average of 6.59 in his 15 outings. Erik Swanson was supposed to be a key setup guy for Romano but had an ERA of 9.22 in his 17 appearances before getting optioned to the minors. His nine Triple-A outings haven’t been much better, with an 8.22 ERA in those.

García stepped up and has been the club’s best reliever this year. He has five saves and ten holds with a 2.57 ERA, 34.6% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate, but he had to depart yesterday’s game with an apparent injury. The club told reporters earlier today that García’s MRI showed no structural damage, per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com on X. Though the prognosis is unclear, it seems the issue is serious enough that the Jays decided to let García rest up for at least 15 days.

The Jays came into the season planning on that Romano/Swanson/García trio anchoring their bullpen but will now have to proceed without all three of them. Romano could be the next to return, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet relays on X that the righty could be back on a mound as soon as Wednesday, but it’s still a less-than-ideal set of circumstances for the Jays. The club’s relievers had a 3.68 ERA last year, placing them eighth in the league, but this year’s bullpen group is in 27th place with a 4.69 ERA.

Chad Green is likely to step into the closer’s role for now, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet on X. Green has a 1.76 ERA on the year but that’s a bit of a mirage. His 21.8% strikeout rate is actually below league average and much lower than his career rate of 32.1%. His strong results this year have been helped by a .167 batting average on balls in play and 100% strand rate that he won’t be able to maintain, so getting his punchouts back will be key for him and the Jays.

Though the news is glum for García, it’s an exciting day for Eisert, as the 26-year-old southpaw cracks a big league roster for the first time. An 18th-round selection of the Jays in 2019, he wasn’t able to make his professional debut until 2021 due to the pandemic.

But since then, he has tossed 215 2/3 innings across various levels with a 4.01 ERA, 29.5% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. That includes 22 2/3 innings at Triple-A Buffalo this year with an unsightly 6.35 ERA, though a .442 BABIP is surely playing a role in that. The Jays are probably more interested in his 33% strikeout rate this year, though Eisert has also walked 13.2% of batters faced. He’ll give the club a fourth lefty arm alongside Tim Mayza, Génesis Cabrera and Brendon Little.

It may end up being a short stay for Eisert since Yariel Rodríguez is going to be reinstated from the IL at some point this week, likely taking the rotation spot opened by Alek Manoah’s UCL surgery. Over the past few weeks, Bowden Francis has been covering that spot as a bulk guy, with Trevor Richards often serving as an opener. But if Rodríguez can take over that rotation spot, Richards and Francis can move to the relief mix to try to offset the loss of García somewhat.

Blue Jays Option Erik Swanson

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Prior to yesterday’s game, the Blue Jays announced that they reinstated right-hander Chad Green from the injured list. In a corresponding move, fellow right-hander Erik Swanson was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo.

Swanson getting sent down is something that would have been hard to fathom just a few months ago. The righty made 57 appearances for the Mariners in 2022 and only allowed 1.68 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 34% of batters faced that year and only gave out walks at a 4.9% clip.

After that tremendous season, the Blue Jays traded outfielder Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners for Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. Swanson largely carried over his excellent results into 2023, appearing in 69 games with a 2.97 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate. That included plenty of late-game action, as Swanson earned 29 holds and four saves for the Jays last year, largely serving as the primary setup guy to closer Jordan Romano.

The expectation was that Swanson would continue in that role here in 2024 but that hasn’t been the case. Swanson and the Jays got a scare back in February when the pitcher’s son Toby was hit by a car and taken to a local hospital. Thankfully, Toby was eventually released but Swanson was away from the club for a while and dealt with some forearm tightness when he returned.

He started the season on the injured list but missed just the first two weeks, getting reinstated in mid-April. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to get into a good groove so far this season. He’s made 17 appearances, tossing 13 2/3 innings, but has allowed 14 earned runs on the year. His 6.1% walk rate is good but he’s only punched out 15.2% of batters faced and has already allowed five home runs, whereas he only allowed eight all of last year and just three the year prior.

It doesn’t appear as though the injury is creating lingering effects, as Swanson’s velocity isn’t significantly different. His fastball averaged 93.7 miles per hour last year with his splitter at 85.1. Those numbers are down this year but just barely, to 93.6 and 85.0.

Speculatively speaking, perhaps he’s tipping his pitches or hitters have figured out some other way to get a read on him. His chase rate was around 34% in each of the past two years but is down to just 22.8% this year. When he has thrown the ball in the zone, hitters made contact around 72% of the time in the previous two campaigns but that number is up to 84.4% this year. That combination of less chase and more contact in the zone tracks with the significant drop in his strikeout rate. Even when players have chased, they are making contact 71.4% of the time, a big jump from last year’s 55.9% clip. It’s not as though he’s been leaving more pitches over the plate, as his “meatball” rate at Statcast has actually fallen from last year’s 7% to 5.7% this year. However, opposing hitters are swinging at those meatballs 92.9% of the time, a massive increase over last year’s 74.3%.

For whatever reason, opposing hitters appear to be seeing the ball well out of Swanson’s hand, striking out less and barreling the ball up more. He had a barrel rate around 6% in each of the past two years but has more than doubled that this year to 15.4%. That’s been one piece of a larger bullpen slide for the Jays, as the relief corps has gone from a strength to a weakness since last year. The club’s bullpen had a 3.68 ERA last year, putting them in the top ten among MLB clubs. This year, their ERA is up to 4.92, which is better than just the Rangers and Rockies.

That’s not all on Swanson, of course, as pitchers like Romano and Tim Mayza have also seen their numbers trend in the wrong direction, but not to the same degree as Swanson’s. With Green coming off the IL, the Jays could have optioned younger pitchers like Zach Pop or Nate Pearson but the fact that they opted to give Swanson a breather speaks to how rough his season has gone so far.

The Jays will undoubtedly be hoping that a brief reset can get Swanson back on track, whether they can hang around the playoff race or not. The club is having a bit of a disappointing season to this point, with the bullpen struggles playing a role in that. They are currently 25-29, last place in the American League East and five games out of a Wild Card spot.

There’s already been speculation that the club could consider pivoting to a selloff prior to this summer’s deadline. Climbing in the standings would take that off the table but it will be hanging over the club in the months to come if they stay on the fringes of contention.

Swanson came into this season with four years and 96 days of major league service time, putting him 76 days shy of the five-year mark. He added another 61 days this year prior to getting optioned, leaving him 15 shy of crossing that mark.

Assuming he comes back at some point this year, he’ll have no problem crossing that threshold and staying on track for free agency after 2025. Though if his struggles continue down in the minors and he doesn’t earn his way back, he could end up shy of the line and have his free agency delayed by another year.

The Jays would surely love if that’s not a scenario they have to consider. If Swanson can quickly get back on track, he can return to being a key part of their bullpen for a playoff push. Or if he is succeeding while the club is faltering, he could be marketed to other clubs at the deadline with an extra year of control. But for now, he and the club will have to figure out a plan for putting this rough patch behind him.

Blue Jays Place Chad Green On 15-Day Injured List

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The Blue Jays are placing right-hander Chad Green on the injured list due to a right teres major strain, manager John Schneider told reporters (including Shi Davidi of Sportsnet) this evening. Right-hander Nate Pearson is set to be recalled to the roster in the corresponding move. Kyle Glaser relays that, per Schneider, Green has already undergone an MRI and will be shut down for a few days before the club re-assess him to determine a timeline for his return.

Green, 33 next month, signed with Toronto back in January of 2023 on a complex deal that guaranteed him $8.5MM over two years. Since then, however, the Blue Jays have exercised a two-year, $21MM club option on Green’s services that will now leave him with a total guarantee of $23.25MM over three years, including the $2.25MM he earned last season.

While Green had pitched just 12 innings for Toronto at that point, that expenditure was clearly justified by Green’s run as one of the most dominant set-up men in the game with the Yankees over the prior six seasons, which saw him post a 2.96 ERA and 3.01 FIP while striking out 33.4% of batters faced. The early returns on Toronto’s decision to commit to the veteran righty have been solid, as Green has picked up two saves in seven appearances while pitching to a 2.35 ERA to this point in the young 2024 campaign. Unfortunately, he’ll now take a seat for what could be a significant absence.

While Toronto doesn’t intend to determine a timetable for the right-hander’s return for several days, other hurlers suffering from teres major strains in recent years have typically been away from the big league club for a month or longer. Rangers right-hander Max Scherzer suffered a teres major strain in mid September last year and managed to return to appear in the ALCS against the Astros just over a month later, but struggled in his return before being removed from the club’s World Series roster after three postseason appearances.

Other players to suffer a teres major strain in recent years include Guardians righty Triston McKenzie, who missed the first two months of the 2023 campaign due to the issue, and Cubs youngster Caleb Kilian, who suffered the injury in early March and isn’t expected to return until sometime around the All Star break. Should Green require a lengthy trip to the IL, the Jays figure to lean heavily on right-handers Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson in his absence.

Both Romano and Swanson were just activated following trips to the IL of their own earlier this week. While they’ve combined to allow four runs in three appearances since being activated, the pair were among the most reliable back-end duos in the sport last year. Swanson pitched to a 2.97 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate in 69 appearances last year while setting up for Romano, who racked up 36 saves while posting a 2.90 ERA in 59 appearances of his own. With Green on the shelf, the likes of Yimi Garcia and Genesis Cabrera could receive additional late-inning opportunities alongside the duo.

Replacing Green on the active roster is Pearson, who had been optioned earlier this week to clear space for Romano and Swanson’s returns to the roster. The 27-year-old righty was the club’s first-round pick in the 2017 draft and was once widely considered a top-15 prospect in the sport but struggled to a 5.00 ERA and 5.36 FIP in 52 appearances from 2020 to 2023. The early returns on Pearson’s work in 2024 have been positive, however, as he’s struck out 34.6% of batters faced across 6 1/3 scoreless frames in the majors so far this year.

Blue Jays Exercise Two-Year Club Option On Chad Green

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The Blue Jays announced this morning that the club has exercised its two-year club option on the services of veteran right-hander Chad Green. Green will now earn $21MM total across the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Green signed an unusual contract with Toronto this past offseason that afforded the club a three-year, $27MM team option, which if declined would offer Green a one-year, $6.5MM player option. If both of those options were declined, the Blue Jays would then have a final two-year, $21MM option. Evidently, the first club option and Green’s player option were both declined before Toronto picked up the two-year option.

Green, 32, missed most of the 2022 and ’23 campaigns while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. A look at Green’s basic run prevention stats would indicate that the right-hander struggled in his return to action in 2023, given his 5.25 ERA that was 17% worse than league average. That doesn’t tell the whole story, however, as Green pitched just twelve innings with Toronto this year and had excellent peripheral stats. He struck out a whopping 30.8% of batters faced while walking just 7.7% with one home run allowed, giving him a much more palatable 2.67 FIP.

That sort of performance is much more in line with Green’s career numbers. After an uneven rookie season where he was used primarily as a starter in 2016, Green became one of the most reliable set-up men in the game from 2017-2022, as he posted a 2.96 ERA (147 ERA+) with a 3.01 FIP and a 33.4% strikeout rate. Impressive as those numbers are, they’re actually somewhat bogged down by a brief return to starting in 2019. Over the course of his entire career, Green sports a sterling 2.88 ERA across 338 innings out of the bullpen. That’s the sixth-best figure among all relievers with at least 300 innings of work since Green’s debut in 2016, surpassed only by Josh Hader, Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, Blake Treinen, and Aroldis Chapman.

Of course, it’s an open question whether or not Green can reach those heights again in his age-33 and -34 campaigns. After all, Green heads into his mid-thirties coming off a lengthy rehab from surgery. While his velocity did not appear to be impacted during his brief run in the majors this year, it’s hard to say what sort of impact the surgery could have on him over a full season. Between his age, the fact that he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2021, and the volatility of relievers in general, there’s a fair bit of risk in offering Green a two-year, $21MM guarantee even as the righty clearly has the potential to be among the better relievers in baseball.

Given that combination of risk and potentially significant reward, the two-year $21MM pact seems like a reasonable price point for both sides of the arrangement. The interesting structure of the contract left MLBTR readers divided in a recent poll, with each of those four possible outcomes (Green hitting free agency and each of the three potential options being picked up) receiving between 20% and 30% of the total vote. That being said, with the Toronto bullpen scheduled to lose Jordan Hicks and Jay Jackson to free agency this offseason, retaining Green gives the club a quality set-up man to pair with Erik Swanson in front of closer Jordan Romano in 2024.

MLBTR Poll: Chad Green’s Contract Options

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Last winter, right-handed reliever Chad Green signed one of the more convoluted free agent contracts in recent memory. The deal looked simple on the surface – an $8.5MM guarantee over two years – but it came with several options that could pay him as much as $32.25MM through 2026. Green earned $2.25MM during the 2023 campaign, while he spent most of the year on the injured list rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays always knew he’d miss the first several months of the season, hence his relatively low salary. This upcoming offseason, however, is when things get complicated.

Toronto has a club option for three more years and $27MM (plus up to $1MM in incentives each season). If the Blue Jays do not exercise their first option, Green will have the chance to accept an option of his own, a one-year player option worth $6.25MM (with as much as $2MM in additional incentives). Then, if Green also declines his option, the Blue Jays have a second, less expensive team option for two years and $21MM (again with up to $1MM in incentives each year). Finally, if both sides decline every option, Green will become an unrestricted free agent.

Given how little Green pitched in 2023, it’s hard to imagine the Blue Jays would pick him up for $9MM a year through his age-35 campaign. Then again, the veteran reliever returned from Tommy John on a perfectly normal timeline and looked healthy in September. In other words, he gave the Blue Jays everything they could have expected in 2023, and the team wouldn’t have signed this deal in the first place if they weren’t going to consider the option.

While Green gave up ten runs (seven earned) in only 12 innings of work this season, his underlying numbers were much more impressive. He struck out 16 of the 52 batters he faced and only issued three unintentional walks. His 3.11 SIERA and 2.84 xERA are also promising signs. What’s more, Green was a dominant and durable reliever for several years before he tore his UCL. From 2016-22, he posted a 2.79 ERA and 2.93 FIP in 326 innings of relief. Since his debut season, he ranks 11th among all relievers in FanGraphs WAR. If he returns to form in 2024, a three-year, $27MM deal would seem more than fair. A few comparable relievers signed for more than $30MM last winter, including Kenley Jansen (two years, $32MM) and Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM).

For those precise reasons, Green is unlikely to accept his $6.25MM player option. If he does hit free agency, all his suitors will have the knowledge that Toronto turned down his services at both three years/$27MM and two years/$21MM. That being said, the market for right-handed relievers isn’t particularly deep, nor is it replete with high-end talent. He’s younger than other guys with a long track record, like Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson, and he’s more experienced out of the bullpen than other high-upside arms, like Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López. Even if he struggles to find a multi-year offer, Green should be able to beat $6.25MM on a one-year pact. However, if he is worried about his health, it’s possible he could opt for another year of job security with the Blue Jays. Yet, considering his performance in September and October, that doesn’t seem to be a likely concern.

Toronto’s two-year, $21MM club option looks the most likely to be exercised, but at the same time, if the club has enough concerns to turn down the three-year option, perhaps they’re ready to move on from Green entirely. On top of that, while the two-year option is less expensive overall, it comes with a higher annual salary. The Blue Jays ran a payroll relatively close to the first luxury tax threshold in 2023, and they already have several payroll commitments for next season. If they’re looking to make some upgrades this winter without paying the tax, they might actually prefer the longer option with a lower AAV.

So, what do the MLBTR readers think? Will either side pick up an option, or will Green return to the open market? Have your say in the poll below!

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Blue Jays To Activate Chad Green From Injured List

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The Blue Jays are reinstating Chad Green from the 60-day injured list tomorrow, tweets Eric Treuden of Jays Journal. He’ll take one of the expanded roster spots. Treuden and Robert Murray of FanSided report that the Jays will recall Spencer Horwitz with the other vacancy. In order to clear space on the 40-man roster for Green, Toronto is likely to transfer Hagen Danner from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list.

Green’s activation is the biggest news. The right-hander is in line for his first major league appearance since May 2022. Green injured his elbow and required Tommy John surgery that month. It ended his seven-year tenure with the Yankees, as he headed to free agency last winter.

The Jays and Green agreed on a complicated free agent pact. He’s making $2.25MM this season. At year’s end, the Jays will have to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $27MM team option. If they decline, Green would have a $6.25MM player option for next season. If he declines, Toronto could circle back on a two-year, $21MM pact. If all three provisions were declined, he’d return to free agency.

How Green looks down the stretch should play a role in his long-term future. Before the injury, he was a very valuable multi-inning relief arm in the Bronx. Green owns a 3.17 ERA with a 32.5% strikeout rate over 383 2/3 career frames. Toronto already has one of the game’s best bullpens, ranking fourth with a 3.47 ERA. If Green can immediately recapture his old form, he’d join the likes of Jordan Romano, Jordan Hicks, Tim Mayza and Trevor Richards in the middle to late innings. Erik Swanson could also factor into that mix but is currently on the injured list.

Green has made 12 minor league rehab outings over the past six weeks. He started with three rookie ball appearances and has pitched nine times with Triple-A Buffalo. In nine innings, he has allowed only three runs (two earned) with 11 strikeouts and one walk.

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