The Brewers are discussing right-hander Brandon Woodruff in trades with multiple clubs, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. With the non-tender deadline coming up at 7 pm Central tonight, it’s possible the club is looking to make a move before committing to Woodruff for the 2024 season.
With the deadline looming, Woodruff is arguably the most fascinating player to watch today. He has been an excellent pitcher for Milwaukee in recent years, having made 103 starts from 2019 to the present with a 2.93 earned run average. He struck out 30% of batters faced in that time while giving out walks at just a 6.3% clip. The 15.1 wins above replacement he produced in that stretch, per FanGraphs, was 15th among all major league pitchers.
He can be retained for one more season via arbitration but the situation is complicated by a shoulder injury. The righty missed part of the 2023 campaign due to a subscapular strain in his right shoulder, making just 11 starts, and wasn’t able to appear in the playoffs. Last month, the club announced that he would require surgery to repair the anterior capsule in his right shoulder, which would keep him out of action for most or perhaps all of 2024. Woodruff himself later addressed the situation and put a bit more of an optimistic spin on it, suggesting it’s possible he’s back by midseason, but he’s a real wild card at the moment.
Woodruff had a salary of $10.8MM in 2023 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a raise to $11.6MM next year. Although Woodruff is incredibly talented, that could be a lot of money for a low-spending club like the Brewers to give out for a guy who is such an unknown right now. On the positive end of things, Woodruff could return for the second half and be his old self, helping the team for a postseason push. That would be a huge boost to a rotation that currently is fronted by Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta with plenty of question marks beyond that, and Burnes himself is a trade candidate given that he also has just one year of expensive arb control remaining. If that were to come to pass, Woodruff would be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer, thus netting the Brewers an extra draft pick.
But it’s also possible that the injury timeline goes beyond expectations and Woodruff doesn’t come back, or perhaps he does return but he’s not as effective as before. In that case, justifying a qualifying offer would be harder and he could perhaps depart for nothing.
Given that possible downside, it’s possible the club might have to consider a strict non-tender. The club has had payrolls around $120-130MM in recent years, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, so committing almost 10% of their budget to a guy who might not pitch at all next year would certainly be risky. Other clubs with more financial wiggle room might have a greater appetite for taking that bet so it’s understandable that the Brewers would try to get a sense of what other options are available.
The deadline doesn’t necessarily mean that a trade has to happen today. The Brewers could agree to tender Woodruff a contract and then trade him at a later date. But the talks should at least give them some perspective on whether that’s an advisable path to take or not. If they don’t find any offers that are particularly appealing, then maybe they simply decide to bite the bullet on a non-tender. That would result in Woodruff departing for nothing and becoming a free agent, but they could at least use the saved money on upgrading the roster with some other player or players. With the deadline now just a few hours away, the situation should have more clarity by the time today is done.
Honestly I worry about Woodruff and all the injuries. A shoulder capsule surgery usually isn’t a sign of good things to come. There is a reason he’s gonna get traded. Smart on the Brewers part. Buyer beware.
It would have been smart to trade him some 200 innings ago. Now his value couldn’t be any lower
I love him to the Phillies ! They won’t need him til august anyway. What do Phillie fans think of woodruff and adames for either stott or bohm ?
I don’t think the Brewers would attach the two. Even though Woodruff still seemingly has some value with his injury, I think the Brewers would get a better package for Adames on his own.
bsb82
Of course the team would get a better return from Adames on his own
Just like of course, they would get a worse return from Woodruff on his own,
To be fair, saying you would have dealt him 200 innings ago is revisionist history, especially as he’s only thrown 680 innings in his career to date. Burnes has thrown 709 innings, but you wouldn’t want to send him out of town, would you?
Add in that there was no decline in Brandon’s effectiveness. This is a guy you keep for at least another year if he’s healthy.
I would point out that even though it’s revisionist history in one regard, it’s straight analytics in another.
Big innings after a smaller set of years, max effort thrower, and no previous repairs that would actually help strengthen his arm .. yeah, there are very few of these guys left that don’t end up with shoulder or elbow injuries within a couple of years of becoming regular starters hitting over 180 innings. It’s almost factual that the reality is for most of these guys you are typically better off moving them at high value before their big arb years if you are a mid-market or lower team.
I wouldn’t 100% disagree with you, but there’s still enough guys with max-effort big inning’s workload that doesn’t make it seem unlikely that he should have been dealt by now. Gausman and Gerrit Cole are just two examples of that.
With that being said, isn’t it a sad commentary on MLB pitchers today that you’re not wrong.
Um no
I’m not big on Bohm, so I might move him if I thought Stott could handle 3rd base. Speaking of Stott, he’s pretty close to untouchable IMO (or at least for the caliber of players such as Adames/Woodruff with his uncertainty).
I think he should sign a 5 year extension right away, 5 counting this coming season with an opt out after 2. The gimmick here is the total value is below market and loaded more heavy towards years 2 and 3. Something like $90/5 yrs 8 20 25 17 15. He believes he will be back to his old self and gets 28 mil and opts out after year 2 but incase hes done he has money on the back end. The signing team takes on some risk in that he falters but get 1-1.5 seasons of elite pitching for market rate if he only plays 1 season and gets a deal if he plays 10-12 starts this season plus play offs. Clearly rhis is a big market move, so think Giants, the NYs and LAs, Boston etc.
It would have been smart to trade him some 200 innings ago.
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You’d be surprised at how many moves I get right, looking back two years.
Brewers aren’t going to get much for him, but a lottery ticket is better than nothing from their perspective if he’s just going to be non-tendered. It’s a pretty low risk, high upside move for someone who can afford to eat some money if things go south.
Well considering that he is under contract for 2 more seasons and one of those seasons he will he paid for rehabbing there will be almost no return for the brewers unless they are willing to pay a significant amount of his 2024 salary making him essentially an acquisition for one year.
He’s only under contract for next year I think.
That’s right, I thought he had contract through 2025.
He has one more year of control and no contract at all. Anyone who trades for him will pay over $10 million for a pitcher who may never pitch for them.
Yeah, you’re right. That’s what I meant, that he only has one year of control, but he has to be tendered a contract first.
The only way Milwaukee will be able to trade Woodruff will be if Woodruff agrees to a 2 year deal instead of going to arbitration for 2024. Teams will be willing to give up some value if they can guarantee he’ll be part of their team in 2025, so any deal will take some time to figure out.
I don’t believe you can do “sign & trade” deals in MLB, so the acquiring team will need to be part of the contract negotiations with Woodruff on buying out 1 year of his free agency, along with his 2024 ‘rehab salary’. I would expect the contract to be backloaded, some thing like 2/$30M with extra incentives for any innings pitched in 2024. Woodruff could earn $5M in 2024 + incentives and then $25M for 2025 when he should be fully healthy.
If the Brewers can’t persuade him to do this, they may have to non-tender him as there is no guarantee he will pitch at all in 2024.
I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that someone throws some single-A no-name prospect out there just to get the rights to negotiate with him, but yeah if I were an interested team I think I’d just as rather wait it out and hope he gets non-tendered.
Jay’s should get him and Ohtani and then the 2025 rotation is set
Men make plans and the Gods laugh.
Why the Jays?
From an MO perspective, the Jays have done these types of contracts. Sign injured pitchers to 2 year deals and help them rehab. They’ve been pretty successful at it too so it’s a selling point. Have thought about Mahle and Woodruff for this reason. Ohtani is more complicated as he has to rehab while with the major league team.
And so have most MLB teams at one time or another.
So again, why the Jays?
You yourself admit “most MLB teams” have done these deals, so why not the Jays?
Maybe because Mystery is a fan of the Jays and is wishing it into existence? Why not the Jays? Chad Green and Hyun Jin Ryu looked pretty darn good after rehabbing with the Jays this year. So did David Phelps the first time and it led to him choosing the team in free agency a couple of years later. The former two are very recent successes and the Jays have the selling feature of one of if not the best PDC in the league as a home for their rehabs. They might be a little budget crunched this year but are a large budget team that could backload a deal. They have been willing to share risk in these types of deals like the convoluted set of options on Chad Green’s contract. Some agencies have gone out of their way to suggest that helping major league pitchers is an organizational strength of theirs. They also don’t have a lot of starting pitching depth so a midseason reinforcement if there is a chance of it is a good way to address that. Maybe all teams do it, but the Jays aren’t less likely than anyone else to look for these types of opportunities.
@kamkid, Couldn’t have said it better myself
Bravo mlb fan! Bravo
@baron, Why not the Jays?
Why not the Cubs or Dodgers or Giants or Mariners or Twins or Mets or Red Sox or Orioles or Padres or Yankees or Phillies?
Why is there something and not nothing?
Because.
@baron, so you agree then, why not the jays
BlueBaron, the answer to this is probably because like most fans who follow a primary team who play almost every single day, we live in relative ignorance of the typical ways that other teams operate, but we know the ins and outs of our favourite teams (even though in some ways they pull the rug out from under our feet sometimes and confuse the heck out of us.) I know the Jays well enough to know they’d be in this market. I don’t know those organizations as intimately but I get the sense the Giants and Dodgers are really good candidates for this, the Mariners haven’t done many multi-year free agent contracts for pitchers but if Jerry can trade for him today and extend him, then yes, Twins and Padres needing to cut payroll maybe might not be fits to add salary to players they know won’t be contributing for most of the year?, Yankees and Cashman seem to be fed up with injured players, not sure about the others. These are guesses though and I certainly acknowledge that I’m much more in the dark about these teams than I am with Toronto.
Why not the Astros or the Guardians or the Rays? Those organizations do great work with pitchers.
It’s not all about the Jays, and don’t put words in my mouth.
@KamKid: I know what you’re saying. People can be incredibly myopic.
But thinking about it further, he seems like someone the Braves might take on.
Wrong.
He is a free agent after 2024, as the article says.
i would assume anyone trading for woodruff this season intends to extend him, especially if he does end up missing most or all of the season
mlg
“i would assume anyone trading for woodruff this season intends to extend him,”
Some people, like yourself it appears, are capable of making reasonable assumptions to forward discussions
Other, like, it appears, badman, are either incapable of making reasonable assumptions, or are just looking to fight online.
Jaya fan here. Theres no way Ohtani comes here Woodruff seems like a worth wile risk as long as the playoffs are guaranteed. I dont want the jays to sign Chapman, i want a BIG OF addition let 1 of the 2 young 3b/SS they have take 3b and add an outside 2b. Schneider is back up IF and Biggio is IF/OF utility. If the youngsters cant handle it then Schneider Biggio and the outside 2b edition cycle between 2b/3b. Ideally they get a guy who can handle both 2b and 3b
The playoffs aren’t guaranteed for any team.
Woodruff for Manoah Straight up!
This is interesting because what are u getting for a player who is not going to pitch for most if not all of the season and is a FA after this year? Maybe a team the feels they are a postseason lock takes a shot, but any other team is going to want confirmation that he is at least willing to agree to add an additional year on his contract before giving up anything of value.
I would love him he’s incredible but to risky!
My guess is this is them looking to at least get something out of woodruff instead of letting him go for nothing
Yeah brewers are smart but any team taking him would have to do with extreme caution
I think a team that as you said is a lock for the playoffs could take a chance. Also it gives them a window to work out a deal for 2025 which I think is in everyone’s best interest.
Forget Woodruff – I want Burnes!
Take it you missed the news. Check out Jeff Passan’s article. Brewers are not trading Burnes.
At first I was gonna lol that news but I believe it. Brewers never trade anyone for value. They always just keep their guys til they are forced to trade like woodruff now and hader in the past. In fact u can go all the way back to Prince Fielder- I believe they just let him walk.
This is straight up nonsense. The Brewers almost never let a player walk for nothing like Fielder. They get as much out of a player and trade him if they think they need to. Like with Hader, which ultimately led to Contreras.
Just can’t make fans happy. Either the Brewers are cheap and trade players before free agency or they don’t trade them fast enough.
Brewers never trade anyone for value.
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LOL! Not a Brewers fan, but without 2 seconds of thought, they traded fro Contreras and Adames.
Oh yes, I did miss that
I’m not surprised at all since they’re trying to compete and given Woodruff’s situation. Thanks for that Jeremy.
@Jeremy320: That’s not news. It’s speculation.
Passan is a writer. Writers only know what they hear from their sources. Their sources only share with the media what they choose to share.
Nobody in the Brewers front office is going to announce publicly that they want to trade Burnes or any other player.
Thus, Passan is engaging in speculation based on limited information.
Say all you like that they’re not trading Burnes, but don’t be shocked if they do.
Not speculation. Milwaukee has confirmed doing their due diligence regarding Burnes and Adames and has the full intent to trade neither and pursue a 2024 World Series.
Sandpaper will do the trick if Woodruff.
Nicely done!
Boom goes the dynamite!
Hope Woodruff returns healthy and avoids the Jimmy Nelson path.
So much for all the “family” talk at the press conference yesterday. What a load of crap from Mark and Matt
What do you expect them to do, pay an injured player $10 million during his final year before he leaves in free agency? Would you cry about family after he rightly pockets that money and finds another team? It’s a business. This isn’t hard.
It’s never been a family. It’s a BUSINESS.
So you think they should just give the dude the $10M for probably -0- return?
Yikes. If anything the Crew should extend him for cheap. The guy has been the steady presence in Milwaukee’s roster for years. Burnes and Peralta are untouchable when they’re on, but also blow many starts. Woody is the workhorse.
But yeah, trade him and Burnes and Adames Devin Williams and anyone else. Now that the ballpark is secure, time to return to the old familiar sewer. The Brewer sewer, if you will.
Why should they extend an injured guy?
You pay a player for his expected future contributions, not for what he’s done in the past.
Your Statement has never been so inaccurate on paying a player. IF it was true why dont you see more players making 15 to 25 mil a year in their prime at 24 to 27 years old.?
Guys hit free agency now on the tail end their careers and the pay is based off past performance. Not many guys put up the numbers they are expected to get paid at 35, 36, 37+ plus years of age..
“Why should they extend an injured guy?”
In an attempt to buy low. Obvious, no?
Not so much in his walk year.
You’re basically shelling out money for a player’s future potential, but you can’t ignore what they’ve achieved in the past. It’s like, you’re paying for their past success, too.
But it must be heavily discounted to account for the data that only about 37% of pitchers who have this kind of surgery ever pitch again.
Remember Johan Santana? He never made it back.
You can only extend him for cheap if Woodruff wants such a deal.
Some of these posters (not you) are idiots. This is a regular business deal.
1-Woodruff won’t get paid this season without an extension.
2-No one will trade for Woodruff without an extension.
The only questions are basically a) what is the prognosis for this type of injury, and b) how much is a team willing to risk on that prognosis.
Brewers are not committing to anything for 2024 if they don’t trade him today. Arbitration salaries are not guaranteed, don’t kick in until Spring Training, and they can trade him anytime. There should be no nexus at all between his situation and today’s deadline, since they certainly will not be dropping him for nothing.
Arbitration salaries are guaranteed now
Only if arbitration is avoided. If they go to a hearing, they aren’t guaranteed.
But if they don’t trade him today, they must either non-tender him and make him a free agent or commit to salary arbitration with him.
They can tender him and still negotiate on an extension. Hearings aren’t until the new year. If they go to a hearing, the contract isn’t guaranteed and they can release him (I think there is a month or so of severance pay owed in this case) and he can still shop for a new team. I’d guess though that if they are looking to trade him today, they don’t get the sense they are likely to come to an extension so there’s no sense in holding up his free agency/opportunity with another team.
I’m pretty sure this is incorrect. Once they agree to tender him a contract, they’re on the hook. Even if they go to arbitration court and lose – they still have to pay him that salary. Today is the deadline to walk away and not pay an arbitration salary.
They can tender him and still negotiate on an extension.
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They can, but tendering him gives him leverage. You already owe him about one month salary. So if the real, perfect number is $10M for 2025, and you’ve already paid him $2M, he can hold out for $9M, knowing that, if he gets cut, he is still worth the perfect $10M number.
Once they agree to tender him a contract, they’re on the hook.
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No, he can be cut during ST and be paid 30 days or 45 days, depending on the date he was cut.
How is he worth anymore than nothing ? He’s an 8 figure pitcher who’s dealing w a serious injury on a 1 year contact. The only value I see is a team who’s a lock to make the playoffs already and they take a chance on him to come back to form by playoffs. And that team will likely give a veteran of little to no value or some 18 yr old w one plus tool
He’s an ace in rehab. The rays had a similiar situation with Tyler Glasnow and signed him to a 2 year/$30m contract ($5m to rehab and $25m for 2024). An acquiring team would presumably ink Woodruff to a similar contract.
Jeremy, I think the difference is that with TG the stays had every reason to believe that he had a high chance of recovery at that point. With BW I doubt if anyone really knows (or think they know) what his chances are of improving. I’m thinking of guys like Tyson Ross who was an all star / CY candidate prior to shoulder injury and then after multiple procedures including thoracic outlet, he never made it back to form. He limped thru a few games but it took more than 2 years.
I like BW for a league min / incentive for 24. He should take it for rehab and paycheck.
A league minimum deal? Not a chance. I imagine he’ll sign an extension in the realm of 2 year 25m (+ escalators) to buy out his last arbitration year and first year of free agency.
The O’s should trade for him, this feels like a perfect situation for both clubs, Baltimore needs pitching, And they have tons of prospects they can send and not take a hit
They would prefer a pitcher who can actually pitch.
woodruff is a top 30 starter btw
Woodruff isn’t a top 500 pitcher at the moment.
A lot of ability but fails to have that 1 ability that matters the most – AVAILability.
makes no sense lmao
Uh…he’s possibly not even going to pitch this season and then would be a free agent. No makey sensey.
Feels like a Dodgers move.
I’d like it if the Red Sox got him, but only if we could sign him to some kind of extension, maybe just a two year deal with an opt out after the 2025 season
I agree 100%. Preller is crazier than a bedbug, but he has a knack for putting together these kind of multi-faceted contracts. Just copy over one of his deals.
Maybe $10M for 2024, $10M for 2025, a team option for $80M for 2026-2029, that turns into a player option (if we decline) for $30M/2 for 2026-2027.
I don’t have the foggiest idea what the prognosis is for this type of injury. and that is the first step. But he is good enough to be a solid #2 even in his declining years.
Likely have to work out some type of extension b/c why would a team trade for a guy out for 2024 who is a free agent next year?
When he is non-tendered then taking a flyer on him without the arb amount being the $$’s is a fair idea for quite a few teams.
Group A – playoff contenders needing pitching – why risk those $$’s as opposed to a Wacha or Lugo or similar type that isn’t injured.
Group B – non playoff contenders needing pitching. Same. Why commit those arb $$’s for a guy with a high ceiling. The only possible reason is to flip him but if he can’t pitch til August then that isn’t likely.
I see a line of teams after he is nontendered lining up for an incentive laden 1 year deal so he can prove his health and hit FA in 2024.
The trade value here is a rich team knowing they will QO Woodruff after this season. Having a year or 2 should he accept, to negotiate a long term contract having seen him pitch. I’d think like a recent 2nd or 3rd Rd. selection showing promise in a return.
This might work for a team like the White Sox who may be punting 2024 but look to contend in 2025. This is a similar scenario to what might occur with ex-Sox closer Liam Hendriks, a FA unlikely to pitch in 2024.
The flip side of a potential trade could be that Brandon Woodruff might turn into the next John Danks with his shoulder issue.
He has future Padre written all over him. Trade a lottery pick for him, and get that man a two year extension with a couple of option years STAT AJ.
Kinda reminds me of the Chris Carpenter situation..not exactly the same because Chris C went to FA but the cardinals signed him knowing he wasn’t going to pitch for awhile…it worked out great for them and I could see this working out the same way for another team
He is gonna be non-tendered
don’t let him go. give home a backyard 3 year contract worth 15m. rehabs next year at a low cost and 2 years of decent control. he has expressed interest in staying
Injury optimism on pitchers rarely works out well…
With the strength of the players union Woodruff is in a position to set the current bar for future, similiar situations. No way does he sign a 2 year deal with the brewers (or any team) unless the deal is his projected arby salary + total of expected value for 2025 assuming he didn’t get hurt. Unless a team offers him 2 years 35 million he isnt signing (unique situation due to his rank in regards to starting pitching tier). Any team that trades for him is, essentially, banking that he rejects the QO after next season, he has rebounded a little, and a team signs him after next year. He is a viable risk, under this scenario, assuming cash flow.
No one is doing that. That is likely the equivalent of paying an injured pitcher $35M for 2025. Even if you had a guarantee that he’d be 100% healthy in 2025, you still don’t make that deal. And there is at least a reasonable chance he will not be near 100% in 2025.
Of course no one is doing that. I am just saying that is what it will likely take for woodruff to lock into a 2 year deal. Players union backlash would be strong if, based on his tier, he didn’t take projected market value assuming no injury. Sets precedence for future #1s under the same set of circumstances.
he didn’t take projected market value assuming no injury.
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“Assuming no injury” is a non-starter, since he is injured. The number will based on his expected contribution in 2025, and that will reflect his injury risk.
In short, any deal for woodruff would have to be equivalent to his arby year value and the QO projected value after the season. That would be the minimum a 2 year deal would have to be worth for the PA to be ok with it.
Smartest move the Brewers could make
Why wouldn’t Woodruff cut the Brewers out of negotiations? He can refuse to discuss an extension with anyone until he’s a free agent. If they tender him a contract, he gets paid next year. If not, he’s free to negotiate a 2 year deal with a team unhindered by the trade issues. That’s less risk for the new team.
For some reason I thought he had already had the surgery. In the past he was the kind of guy Preller signed to a 2 year deal and they never worked out.
This is basically a salary dump. Nobody is giving up anything for a guy with one year left and who most likely won’t pitch within that year.