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Brewers, Brandon Woodruff Avoid Arbitration

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The Brewers are in agreement with star hurler Brandon Woodruff on a $10.8MM deal to avoid arbitration, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). They’ll avoid a hearing in the third of four trips through the process for Woodruff, who first qualified as a Super Two player during the 2020-21 offseason.

A former 11th-round pick, Woodruff has broken out as one of the game’s best starters. He’s a two-time All-Star who hasn’t posted an ERA above 3.05 in any of the past three seasons. Woodruff struck out 30.6% of opponents over 27 starts last season, with a three-week absence due to a high ankle sprain the only black mark on his year.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Woodruff for an $11MM salary. His deal comes up in a tick below that but not meaningfully so, and he’s set up well for another raise in 2024. He’ll reach free agency for the first time at the end of the ’24 campaign, when he’d be headed into his age-32 season.

There’s been a fair bit of speculation about the possibility of Milwaukee making Woodruff or ace Corbin Burnes available in trade talks at some point. The Brewers typically run player payrolls a bit lower than average and have shown a general willingness to listen to trade offers on star players in their arbitration seasons. That doesn’t seem to be a consideration this offseason, as Milwaukee has reportedly taken Burnes, Woodruff and Willy Adames off the table in talks this winter.

Brewers Reportedly Planning To Hold Onto Adames, Burnes, Woodruff Into 2023 Season

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The Brewers have told interested teams they’re unwilling to trade co-aces Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff or shortstop Willy Adames, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Milwaukee general manager Matt Arnold declined comment on any specific individuals but confirmed generally the team plans to “build around” their group of core players “to do the best we can here in 2023” (via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

Burnes, Woodruff and Adames would certainly qualify as core players on the Milwaukee roster. All three are entering their penultimate season of arbitration eligibility, which raised loose speculation that a Brewers team with a mid-tier payroll could look to move them at the peak of their trade value. However, Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported at the outset of the offseason Milwaukee planned to build around their core group. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic similarly suggested last night the Brew Crew was unlikely to deal any of that trio before the start of the season.

The early stages of Milwaukee’s offseason haven’t exactly followed that script. The Brewers parted ways with relievers Brent Suter and Brad Boxberger in the first few weeks. They exercised a $10MM option on Kolten Wong and tendered an arbitration contract with a projected $11.2MM salary to Hunter Renfroe, but both players immediately found themselves in trade rumors. They’re now division rivals in the AL West. Milwaukee sent Renfroe to the Angels for a trio of pre-arbitration pitchers two weeks ago. This afternoon, they dealt Wong to the Mariners in a roughly cash-neutral swap that brought in corner outfielder/designated hitter Jesse Winker (who’s making $8.25MM next season) and arbitration-eligible infielder Abraham Toro.

Subtracting Renfroe and Wong while adding Winker, Toro and pitchers Elvis Peguero and Janson Junk (acquired from Anaheim) probably represents an early downgrade for the Milwaukee roster. Yet parting ways with productive but not elite regulars like Renfroe and Wong is certainly not as impactful as dealing away any of Burnes, Woodruff or Adames would be. That’s particularly true in the case of the Wong swap, which wasn’t intended to slash payroll so much as dealing from an area of roster strength to add a potential offensive upgrade. Milwaukee has highly-regarded prospect Brice Turang as an option to step in at second base, while Toro joins Luis Urías and Mike Brosseau as internal candidates to play second or third.

The Brewers took a similar tack at last summer’s trade deadline. The Josh Hader trade was much maligned — both at the time and in retrospect — as Milwaukee subtracted one of the sport’s top relievers in the midst of a playoff race. Hader’s lofty arbitration salary and window of control dwindling to a season and a half certainly played a part in the front office’s calculus, but the deal wasn’t designed to wave the white flag on the 2022 season. The Brewers brought back a highly-regarded late-inning pitcher of their own in Taylor Rogers and added prospects Esteury Ruiz and Robert Gasser to the organization. Rogers underperformed during his few months with the Brew Crew, and now-former president of baseball operations David Stearns acknowledged in retrospect he didn’t completely foresee how poorly received the loss of Hader would be in the clubhouse. Yet even if that trade didn’t work as intended, it’s clear it wasn’t designed to kick off any kind of rebuild.

Adames is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $9.2MM arbitration salary. Burnes and Woodruff are each forecasted at or just above $11MM. Those are notable figures but still significant bargains relative to those players’ productions. It’d make them the subject of strong interest on the trade market but also key contributors to a Brewers team looking to improve upon last year’s 86-win season. None of those salaries are so exorbitant Milwaukee would feel any urgent financial pressure to clear them from the books.

The Brewers opened the 2022 season with a payroll just under $132MM, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Roster Resource presently projects their 2023 commitments — including arbitration estimates — around $116MM. Even if owner Mark Attanasio isn’t keen on a significant payroll spike, Arnold and his staff should have plenty of room to retain each of Adames, Woodruff and Burnes while making a few targeted upgrades elsewhere on the roster. That’s before considering the possibility of trades subtracting a few more ancillary players. Rowdy Tellez, Adrian Houser and Keston Hiura are all speculative trade candidates this offseason, and it’s not completely out of the question the Brewers field offers on Winker.

Adding another bat in the corner outfield/DH mix could be in order. Winker’s probably best suited for bat-only work if he’s on the roster, which would leave right field to Tyrone Taylor as things currently stand. Milwaukee has a few prospects who could factor into center field, with Garrett Mitchell leading the group after debuting late in 2022, but could look for a veteran complement to add some depth. The Brewers also saw catcher Omar Narváez hit free agency, meaning they could explore ways to upgrade on Víctor Caratini. First base, presently manned by Tellez, is another area where the club may try to inject life into an offense that was only a bit above league average this past season.

Dodgers, Giants Interested In Kolten Wong

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The Dodgers and Giants are among the teams looking into the possibility of a trade for Brewers second baseman Kolten Wong, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The Mariners are also known to have checked in as part of their search for a left-handed hitting second baseman.

Wong is one of the winter’s likelier trade candidates. Milwaukee has a loaded arbitration class that has led them to explore ways to alleviate a payroll crunch. The Brewers waived reliever Brent Suter, whom they apparently weren’t looking to tender a contract with a projected $3.1MM salary. Milwaukee tendered a contract to corner outfielder Hunter Renfroe, but they subsequently dealt him to the Angels for a trio of pitchers and knocked a projected $11.2MM salary off the books.

It appears they’re planning a similar strategy with Wong. The Brewers opened the offseason with a decision on the 32-year-old infielder, as his free agent deal contained a $10MM club option or a $2MM buyout. Milwaukee exercised the option, but Rosenthal writes the Brewers are expected to deal Wong at some point this offseason.

Wong is coming off an atypical season. A two-time Gold Glove winner, he’s been one of the sport’s top defensive second basemen throughout his career. His track record at the plate has been more mixed, but he paired arguably his best offensive season and his worst showing with the glove in 2022. Wong hit 15 home runs and put up a .251/.339/.430 line through 497 plate appearances, numbers that checked in 16 percentage points above league average according to wRC+. Statcast pegged him as the game’s worst defensive second baseman, though, estimating he was seven runs below average. Wong committed 17 errors, tying a career high, and he had the worst speed metrics of his career. At his age, Wong’s best days as a defender could be behind him, although it’s worth noting he also didn’t seem fully healthy. He lost a couple weeks in June to a right calf strain and acknowledged after the season he played through leg injuries (via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).

The Brewers aren’t going to move Wong solely for the purpose of salary relief. Had they been completely set on cutting costs, they could’ve declined his option (or placed him on waivers in hopes another team would claim him and get them off the hook for the buyout). Milwaukee didn’t do that, but as with Renfroe, they don’t seem motivated to retain Wong at his current salary. Rather, they’ve apparently made the determination he has trade value at that $10MM price point and are looking to capitalize on that while creating additional payroll flexibility.

If they do move Wong, the Brewers could hand second base over to former first-round pick Brice Turang. Wong himself suggested after the season that Turang’s presence could inspire Milwaukee to let him go, as the young hitter is coming off a strong season for Triple-A Nashville. Turang, a left-handed hitter, is coming off a .286/.360/.412 showing in 131 games for the Sounds. Prospect evaluators regard him highly as a defender, and he’s now on the 40-man roster after being added to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

The Dodgers and Giants each have plenty of spending capacity. Both clubs are sure to take swings at top-of-the-market free agents, but Wong represents a solid fallback as each seeks to build out their infield. Los Angeles has seen Trea Turner hit free agency, while they declined a team option on Justin Turner. They’re possible suitors for any of this winter’s top four free agent shortstops — Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa — but Rosenthal suggests they could pursue a top free agent and a Wong trade.

The thinking in that scenario would be to rely on Wong and an open market acquisition up the middle while turning third base over to Gavin Lux. Lux has only played six MLB innings at third base, spending the bulk of his time in the middle infield. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have loved his work at second base but been mixed on his shortstop defense. Statcast ranked Lux 155th out of 163 qualified infielders in arm strength this year, meaning he’d probably be stretched at the hot corner. Los Angeles also has a top third base prospect, Miguel Vargas, ready for a big league look after a .304/.404/.511 showing in Triple-A.

San Francisco already has a left-handed hitting second base option in Tommy La Stella. He’s under contract for $11.5M in the final season of a three-year free agent deal that hasn’t worked as hoped. La Stella owns a .245/.297/.380 line as a Giant, seemingly putting his path to everyday reps in jeopardy. The Giants could also explore the top of the shortstop market, perhaps with an eye towards kicking any acquisition over to second base in deference to Brandon Crawford. They’ve been prominently mentioned as the Yankees’ top rival on Aaron Judge, though, and landing a big-ticket shortstop would probably be off the radar if their pursuit of Judge proves fruitful.

While the Brewers have been open to talks on Renfroe and Wong, there’s no indication they’re planning a broad teardown of the roster. Listening to offers on quality role players with escalating price tags is par for the course for a Milwaukee franchise that consistently works to thread the needle of remaining competitive with mid-tier payrolls. Dealing someone like Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff or Willy Adames would be a far more impactful subtraction from the MLB roster, and it doesn’t appear GM Matt Arnold and his front office are eager to make a move of that kind.

Rosenthal unsurprisingly writes the Brewers are finding ample interest on Burnes, Woodruff and Adames but suggests they may be likelier to hold onto those players into the season and reevaluate their place in the standings closer to the trade deadline. All three players have two seasons of arbitration control remaining, and while it seems likely at least one member of that group will eventually be dealt, there’s no pressing concern for the Brewers to do so this offseason.

NL Central Notes: Brewers Pitching, Cardinals, Reynolds

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Heading into the off-season, the Brewers have a number of quality players and like any smaller market team, their dwindling years of control make them speculative trade candidates. Star pitchers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are both entering their final two seasons of control, but according to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Brewers are more likely to add to their roster around those two than look to deal them.

Burnes followed up last year’s NL Cy Young winning campaign with another brilliant season, throwing 202 innings of 2.94 ERA ball. He struck out 243 batters (1st in NL) and while he’s not a finalist for the Cy Young award in 2022, he’ll certainly receive some down-ballot votes. Woodruff finished fifth in Cy Young voting last year, and pitched to a 3.05 ERA across 153 1/3 innings in 2022. Woodruff is due $11MM in arbitration, while Burns slightly tops that with $11.4MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’ projections. A trade of either could give the Brewers farm system – which ranked 13th on Baseball America’s mid-season rankings – a massive boost.

After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2017 and finishing seven games back of the Cardinals, it might’ve been an opportune time to retool a little and replenish their farm system, but instead it appears they’ll look to bounce back by adding to their current core in 2023. According to RosterResource, the Brewers payroll currently projects at around $130MM, $7MM shy of their final mark in 2022. While it’s unclear if the Brewers plan to increase payroll, as things stand that doesn’t leave a ton of wiggle room to improve and try and catch the Cardinals, though they could opt to non-tender some of their arbitration-eligible players to free up some payroll space.

Here’s some more from around the National League Central:

  • The Cardinals have a clear need at catcher following the retirement of Yadier Molina, and it seems they could fill that hole with the top free agent catcher Willson Contreras. According to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, the Cards are one team (alongside the Tigers and Astros) to have expressed interest in Contreras. The slugging catcher hit 22 home runs and slashed .243/.349/.466 in 113 games this year with the Cubs. They did issue him with a qualifying offer, so the Cardinals would have to forfeit a draft pick in the event they did sign him. Currently Andrew Knizner is the top catcher on the Cardinals depth chart, but he profiles as more of a backup so it’s not surprising to see the team linked with free agent catchers.
  • Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds’ elite production and years of control – along with Pittsburgh’s ongoing rebuild – have made him one of the most coveted trade pieces in recent years, but according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Bucs are unlikely to trade him this off-season. Reynolds can be a free agent after the 2025 season, and despite their second-straight 100-loss year, Morosi says the Pirates believe they can be competitive within that window. Reynolds hit .262/.345/.461 with 27 home runs in 2022, a solid year but down on his lofty standards. A year ago, Reynolds slashed .302/.390/.522 and finished eleventh in NL MVP voting. On the whole, Reynolds is a quality hitter that almost any major league team would find room for. Defensively, Reynolds has split time between left and center fields, but grades out better in left with seven Defensive Runs Saved there in his career, against -16 in center. He’s put up 13.6 bWAR across four seasons (including the pandemic-shortened 2020 year) and has given Pittsburgh a star to cheer for through some lean years. Ultimately, there’s reasonable cases to be made for and against trading Reynolds, and while Morosi’s tweet doesn’t rule out a trade by any stretch, given Pittsburgh’s turned down trade interest in recent years there’s a good chance they keep him and look to build around him again in 2023.

Injury Notes: Eflin, Brantley, Woodruff, Polanco

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The Phillies placed starter Zach Eflin on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 26, with a bruised right knee. Outfielder Oscar Mercado, claimed off waivers from the Guardians yesterday, has been added to the active roster in a corresponding move. Eflin told reporters he’s hopeful he could return after a minimal IL stay, which would only cost him two starts (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). The 28-year-old underwent surgery on both knees back in 2016, and he underwent another procedure to correct patellar issues in his right knee last September. His current injury doesn’t seem to be anywhere near as concerning, but the Phillies figure to be particularly cautious in bringing him back given that history.

An impending free agent, Eflin has made 13 starts this season. He owns a 4.37 ERA over 68 innings, striking out 19.6% of opposing hitters against a minuscule 5.3% walk rate. That kind of strike-throwing stability has made the former Padres farmhand a reliable member of the Philadelphia rotation for the past six-plus years. The Phils plan to recall left-hander Bailey Falter to start Friday night’s game in Eflin’s place, tweets Matt Gelb of the Athletic.

Some other injured list moves from around the game:

  • The Astros placed left fielder Michael Brantley on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 27, due to right shoulder discomfort. Chas McCormick, who’d been optioned over the weekend, has been recalled to take his place on the active roster. (Position players typically need to spend a minimum of ten days in the minors after being optioned, but they can be recalled earlier if replacing an injured player). Brantley downplayed  any long-term concerns, telling reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com) he was hopeful he could make it back after a brief stint. The 35-year-old continues to perform very well at the plate, carrying a .288/.370/.416 line through 277 plate appearances this season.
  • The Brewers welcomed a pair of key contributors back from the injured list this evening. Righty Brandon Woodruff and second baseman Kolten Wong have each been reinstated, with Trevor Kelley and Pablo Reyes optioned out in corresponding moves. Woodruff will get the start during today’s game with the Rays, while Wong steps back in at the keystone. It’s the first MLB start in a month for Woodruff, who’s been out while dealing with a high ankle sprain and some hand numbness stemming from Raynaud’s syndrome. Wong has been out for three weeks on account of a calf strain.
  • Between games of today’s doubleheader with the Guardians, the Twins brought back second baseman Jorge Polanco from the injured list. Outfielder Mark Contreras was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul to open active roster space. The switch-hitting Polanco is hitting fifth for the nightcap against Cleveland. He missed a little less than two weeks with some lower back tightness. Through 250 plate appearances, Polanco is hitting .245/.340/.389 with seven home runs. His return figures to push Luis Arraez back to first base and designated hitter, perhaps freeing Alex Kirilloff to see more time in left field. Minnesota lost primary left fielder Trevor Larnach to a core muscle injury over the weekend; he’s undergoing surgery and expected to miss six weeks.

Injury Notes: Zunino, Buehler, Woodruff

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The Rays have been without backstop Mike Zunino for a week, as he landed on the injured list with left shoulder inflammation last Friday. The club has worked to pin down the diagnosis in recent days, and manager Kevin Cash indicated yesterday that Zunino may be dealing with thoracic outlet syndrome (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). He’ll receive a Botox injection in hopes of alleviating the symptoms, and the club expects to have a more defined treatment program by next week.

If the injection doesn’t have the desired effect, it’s possible Zunino would need surgery to address the issue. A thoracic outlet procedure would come with a months-long rehab process and end his 2022 campaign. TOS surgery has become more prevalent around the league in recent years, although it’s been a far more common issue for pitchers than for position players. The Rays have relied on a Francisco Mejía – René Pinto pairing behind the dish in Zunino’s absence, and a long-term or season-ending issue could inspire them to turn to the trade market for help. Tampa Bay could arguably stand to upgrade even if Zunino is able to rehab and work his way back quickly, as the impending free agent is hitting only .148/.195/.304 through 36 games this season.

The latest developments on some other notable injury situations around the game:

  • The Dodgers placed Walker Buehler on the injured list last week after the righty was diagnosed with a flexor strain in his forearm. Shortly after landing on the shelf, Buehler underwent an arthroscopic procedure to remove a bone spur from his elbow, he told reporters this week (via Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). The two-time All-Star indicated he’s been pitching through the spur for years and decided it best to remove it while he’s already shut down from throwing because of the flexor issue. The procedure isn’t expected to affect his recovery timeline, and Buehler reiterated he expects to be back on a major league mound 10-12 weeks from now. It’s not clear whether he’ll have enough time to build up as a prototypical starter for the stretch run, but if all goes as planned, he should be available as a postseason weapon for manager Dave Roberts.
  • Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff will join Triple-A Nashville for a rehab start tomorrow, tweets Will Sammon of the Athletic. It’ll be the first of two likely minor league appearances before the right-hander is set to return to American Family Field. Woodruff has been out since suffering a right high ankle sprain in late May. While he recovered quite quickly from the leg issue, he was dealt a bit of a setback when a battle with Raynaud’s syndrome — a condition that causes decreased blood flow to a person’s fingers — resulted in some numbness on his throwing hand. Fortunately, he was able to restart a throwing program within days and is apparently in good enough shape to progress to game action.

Brewers Place Brandon Woodruff On IL With High Ankle Sprain

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The Brewers have placed right-hander Brandon Woodruff on the 15-day IL with a high ankle sprain (retroactive to May 28th), reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter link). The severity of the injury is not yet known, but it will come as a blow to a team already dealing with the long-term absence of Freddy Peralta. Right-handed reliever Peter Strzelecki has been selected from Triple-A Nashville to take his place on the active roster.

Woodruff left in the fifth inning Friday’s game against the Cardinals with what was then termed ’right ankle irritation,’ though it now appears the injury is somewhat more serious. In words that will hardly come as comfort to Brewers fans, manager Craig Counsell described the injury (per Hogg) as “very similar” to Peralta’s, but it isn’t clear if he’ll need as long to “calm [the injury] down” as does his teammate.

Among the best pitchers in the National League since becoming a full-time starter in 2019, Woodruff had gotten off to a comparatively weak start to 2022, posting a 4.74 ERA (against a career mark of 3.36) and 3.82 FIP (career 3.23). The underlying metrics disagree a bit as to the cause. He’s allowed a .315 BABIP this season (against .264 in 2021 and .289 for his career) and 3.8% home run rate (2.5% in 2021 and 2.7% career) — both largely explicable via a rise in hard-hit percentage (the percent of batted balls leaving the bat with an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater) from 32.7% in 2021 (33.9% career) to 42.6% — but his strikeout rate of 28.5% (against 29.8% in 2021 and 28.3% for his career) and walk rate of 7.0% (6.1% in 2021, 6.5% career) remain largely unchanged.

Regardless of the cause of Woodruff’s regression, his absence presents an immediate difficulty for the first-place Brewers. With a rotation anchored by Woodruff, Peralta, and 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes alongside the unheralded but consistently solid Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser at the back end, the Brew Crew entered 2022 with a solid case for the best rotation in the game. Former top prospect Aaron Ashby has already shifted from swingman to rotation to take Peralta’s spot, but it’s less clear who’ll take Woodruff’s turns.

Left-hander Ethan Small — the club’s top pitching prospect since Ashby’s graduation — has already been called up and will likely get the first crack, but he’s less of a proven commodity than Ashby. The 25-year-old Mississippi State product is off to a hot start at Triple-A Nashville, posting a 1.88 ERA in 38 1/3 innings across eight starts, but he’s still a bit green (he’s only logged 136 2/3 innings in the minors) and has had some issues with control. While his 32.5% strikeout rate across those minor league innings is top-notch, his 12.1% walk rate isn’t.

Small is set to make his major league debut today, in the first game of Brewers’ double-header against the Cubs. Should he struggle and Woodruff remain out of action for an extended period, the next option may be 35-year-old Josh Lindblom, who struggled to a 6.39 ERA in 62 combined innings with Milwaukee between 2020 and 2021 but is off to a strong start at Nashville, logging a 2.89 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 46 2/3 innings.

Strzelecki, a 27-year-old former undrafted free agent out of South Florida, has never started a game in the minors and will likely serve back-end cover for the bullpen for the time being. He has, however, been fairly consistent in his minor league career, posting a 3.73 ERA in 156 2/3 innings across all levels, including a 3.80 ERA in 21 1/3 innings at Triple-A. Never a heralded prospect, he’s nonetheless shown the ability to miss bats (with a 31.1% career strikeout rate in the minors) and keep the ball in the zone (7.6% walk rate).

NL Central Notes: Minor, Woodruff, Suzuki, Miley, O’Neill

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Mike Minor is finally set for his 2022 debut, as Reds manager David Bell told reporters that the veteran southpaw is scheduled to start Cincinnati’s game on Friday against the Nationals.  Acquired in a trade with the Royals in March, Minor developed some shoulder issues during Spring Training and then had a setback in his rehab process in April.  However, with four outings completed in his rehab assignment, Minor is ready to take the hill and participate in what will be his 11th Major League season.

More injury updates from around the NL Central…

  • Brandon Woodruff left Friday’s game prior to the fifth inning due to right ankle irritation, though both Woodruff and Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that the problem may not be serious enough to keep the right-hander from making his next start on Wednesday.  With Freddy Peralta already on the injured list and the rotation further stretched by a doubleheader on Monday, losing Woodruff for even one outing would be a setback for the Brewers, though the club obviously isn’t going to risk pushing the right-hander if he isn’t ready.
  • Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki suffered a sprained left ring finger in Thursday’s game, which kept him out of the lineup yesterday.  It isn’t yet clear whether or not Suzuki will require a visit to the 10-day IL, as Suzuki indicated to reporters (including NBC Sports’ Gordon Wittenmyer) that his finger was feeling only a little better.  Suzuki has a solid .245/.344/.432 slash line in his first 163 MLB plate appearances, though he has cooled off considerably after a great start.
  • The Cubs are also monitoring Wade Miley, whose start yesterday was scratched due to shoulder soreness.  There is some hope Miley will be able to start one of the games in Monday’s doubleheader, but that will depend on how he fares after a long-toss session today.  Miley has only made three starts this season, as some elbow inflammation arose during Spring Training and delayed his Chicago debut until May 10.
  • Tyler O’Neill received a cortisone shot in his right shoulder after additional testing revealed some fluid buildup, the Cardinals outfielder told reporters (including Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat).  O’Neill has been on the 10-day IL since May 20 due to a shoulder impingement, and after some rest, he hopes to begin a rehab assignment sometime this week.  After what appeared to be a breakout 2021 season, O’Neill has slumped out of the gate this year, slashing just .195/.256/.297 over 133 plate appearances.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Assessing The Brewers’ Rotation

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As seems to be the case every spring, there’s a fair bit of uncertainty surrounding the Brewers’ rotation. Milwaukee eschewed a splashy trade or a potentially cumbersome long-term pact in free agencu, instead opting for lower-cost deals with righty Josh Lindblom (three years, $9.125MM) and Brett Anderson (one year, $5MM) As things currently stand, that duo will likely join holdovers Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser in comprising four of the top five spots.

As for the fifth spot in the rotation, Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters yesterday that the competition will likely boil down to left-hander Eric Lauer and right-hander Freddy Peralta (Twitter link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). Righty Corbin Burnes isn’t entirely out of the race, but Counsell did indicate that veteran right-hander Shelby Miller won’t be considered just yet. While Miller was invited to MLB camp and will presumably get some innings there, he’s working to reestablish himself after several lost seasons.

The competition between Lauer and Peralta will be a key one for Brewers fans to follow this spring. The former, a 24-year-old lefty picked up alongside Luis Urias in the trade that sent Zach Davies and Trent Grisham to San Diego, already has nearly two full seasons of MLB experience under his belt despite his relative youth. Lauer started 29 games for the Padres last season, pitching to a 4.45 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 39.9 percent ground-ball rate in 149 2/3 innings.

Lauer pitched into the seventh and eighth inning on a few occasions but ultimately averaged about five frames per start — a concept that should be plenty familiar to Brewers fans at this point. Milwaukee regularly limited the aforementioned Davies and right-hander Chase Anderson to two trips through the opponents’ batting order, leveraging a deep bullpen thereafter. If he wins the fifth spot in the rotation, Lauer could be deployed in similar fashion.

Peralta, meanwhile, is still just 23 year of age. Like Lauer, he’s racked up a fair bit of big league experience in his early 20s, pitching to a combined 4.79 ERA in 163 1/3 Major League innings to this point. Peralta spent most of the 2019 season in a multi-inning relief role — showing better in that capacity than he did as a starting pitcher. But Peralta has added a new pitch to his repertoire this winter, as Tom Haudricourt and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recently highlighted, which could change his fortunes. A chat with former big league righty and current Brewers special assistant Carlos Villanueva led to Peralta trying out a slider in the Dominican Winter League, and he responded with a 34-to-3 K/BB ratio in 20 innings with los Toros del Este.

The 25-year-old Burnes could be something of a wild card as camp progresses. A consensus top 100 prospect heading into 2018, Burnes debuted in dominant fashion with the ’18 club when he tossed 38 innings of 2.61 ERA ball with a 35-to-11 K/BB ratio. He made 30 total relief appearances, allowing just 27 hits (four homers); of his 11 walks, two were of the intentional variety. Burnes posted elite spin rates on his curve and heater while flashing high-end velocity. He looked like a potential cornerstone for the pitching staff.

The 2019 season was an unmitigated disaster for Burnes, however. The hitter-friendly nature of the 2019 ball likely didn’t help matters, nor did a sky-high .414 average on balls in play. But Burnes’ poor showing can’t be solely blamed on a juiced ball or poor luck; he was absolutely torched for 48 runs in 49 innings of work — yielding a stunning 17 home runs in that time. The right-hander showed a clear knack for missing bats (12.9 K/9, 17.2 percent swinging-strike rate) but struggled with location both in and out of the zone far. Burnes’ walk rate increased, and his inability to command the ball within the zone contributed to that barrage of long balls.

Regardless of how it shakes out, the Milwaukee rotation will enter the season facing its share of scrutiny. That’s been the case in both of the past two seasons, however, and the team reached the postseason in both instances. A year ago. The 2019 season saw Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson, Woodruff, Davies, Houser and Gio Gonzalez make the majority of its starts. A year prior, the Brewers entered the season with Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Junior Guerra, Brent Suter and Wade Miley (then on a minor league reclamation deal) heading up its rotation mix.

There may not be a surefire ace among Milwaukee’s starting staff, but both Woodruff and Houser posted sub-4.00 ERAs with strong peripheral marks in more than 100 innings in 2019. Lindblom is an undeniably interesting flier coming off a dominant run in the Korea Baseball Organization, thanks in part to a new splitter. Brett Anderson has a 4.07 ERA and a 55 percent ground-ball rate over the past two seasons (256 1/3 innings). It’s not the most outwardly impressive group of arms, but the Brewers have begun to make a habit of compiling serviceable staffs that are light on name value. They’ll be looking for more of the same in 2020.

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