The Astros and general manager Dana Brown have been open about their interest in signing extensions with infielders Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, but the former may be more likely than the latter. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, a high-ranking executive with the club said they want Altuve for the rest of his career but are highly skeptical of getting something done with Bregman as well.
Bregman, 30 in March, already signed one extension with the Astros. Going into the 2019 season, he and the club agreed to a five-year pact with a $100MM guarantee. He already had a 2019 salary in place, with that deal covering the 2020-2024 seasons. That leaves just one year and $28.5MM left on the contract.
When pen was put to paper that time, Bregman was in between his two best seasons. In 2018, he launched 31 home runs and stole 10 bases, leading to a batting line of .286/.394/.532 and wRC+ of 157. He got strong grades for his defense at third and even played a passable shortstop for part of the year, leading to 8.0 wins above replacement per FanGraphs and a fifth-place finish in the voting for American League Most Valuable Player. The next year, he only stole five bases but his homer tally jumped to 41 and his on-base percentage was almost 30 points higher. That was the “juiced ball” season so his wRC+ only increased slightly to 167, but he finished second to Mike Trout in MVP voting that year.
Since then, Bregman has settled in a bit below that level, still a very good player but not quite MVP caliber. The past two seasons have seen him combine for 48 home runs and a .261/.364/.447 batting line, which translates to a wRC+ of 131. He produced 9.8 fWAR over the two years combined.
Though that technically qualifies as diminished production relative to his 2018-2019 peak, it’s still excellent work overall. Only 21 position players had a higher fWAR tally in 2022-2023, with Bregman fourth among regular third basemen behind just José Ramírez, Manny Machado and Austin Riley.
As of right now, Bregman is set to hit free agency in advance of his age-31 season, which still lines him up for a solid payday. Marcus Semien was also an above-average infielder who generally produced a bit below MVP levels when he got $175MM from the Rangers two years ago. Bregman’s former teammate George Springer was able to get $150MM going into his age-31 season. Freddie Freeman nabbed an MVP award in 2020 but was a bit limited as a free agent since he only played first base and was going into his age-32 season, though he nonetheless got himself $162MM.
Something in that range should be attainable for Bregman but it may not be from the Astros. The club has generally avoided long-term deals that run deep into a player’s career, letting guys like Springer, Carlos Correa and others walk away and get paid elsewhere. That strategy has continued to work out for them so far, as they just made the ALCS for a seventh straight season, but there are some pivot points coming up. Altuve and Bregman are both set to become free agents after 2024, with Justin Verlander perhaps joining them depending on his vesting option. One year later, it will be Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, José Abreu and others.
With such a significant chunk of their core nearing free agency, it’s not surprising that they want to pivot from their standard playbook in order to try to keep that mass exodus from coming to fruition. Things can always change but it seems the current feeling is that Altuve will get done but Bregman won’t. The club already has some significant deals for younger players on the books going forward, with Yordan Alvarez signed through 2028, Cristian Javier through 2027 and Lance McCullers Jr. 2026. Perhaps those deals, and a theoretical Altuve contract, don’t leave much room for Bregman. Or perhaps Bregman simply wants to test the open market after having already signed one significant extension and banking nine figures.
It’s unclear if there are any strict timelines on negotiations, with Spring Training being the most common time for extensions to be hammered out. At this time of year, clubs usually prefer to focus on bringing in new players from free agency and trades, before pivoting back to talks with their incumbent players in February and March. However, the Astros don’t seem to have a massive to-do list this winter, with Brown recently listing backup catcher and the bullpen as priorities. Perhaps that gives them a bit of breathing room this winter to have some detailed talks with Scott Boras, who represents both Altuve and Bregman, to see if anything can get done. Boras will certainly be busy though, as he is representing a pile of this winter’s free agents, including Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and many more.
The window is still open, if closing, so the media driven chatter about trading Bregman is ridiculous. If anything, the Astros have proven that you’re either all in, or your all out tanking for picks. There’s no Bregman trade scenario that helps us get back to the world series in 2024. Sign a catcher, sign an outfielder, tack onto the bullpen, and run it back 2024.
Anyone else get the vibe that James Click quit while on top of the world so he didn’t have to steer the ship during the backslide and eventually get axed so someone else could orchestrate the re-tool/rebuild nonsense decade?
No, I think he argued with Dusty about lineups and Crane picked the HOF manager over the first time GM.
Bregman gets slammed on Astros fan boards constantly. It’s not that they don’t like him, it’s just that they don’t feel he deserves MVP caliber money.
In 2021 he was limited to 2.1 fWAR in 91 games due to injury (3.7 fWAR pace over 162g).
In 2020 he was limited to 1.2 fWAR in 42 games due to injury (4.6 fWAR pace over 162g)
Each of the other 5 seasons he has been in MLB, including 2022 and 2023, he has at least 4.3 fWAR.
He is among the best and most consistent (year to year – he is terribly inconsistent month to month) players in MLB.
He will get paid. I’m thinking Kris Bryant’s 7 yr / $182 M is a good comp.
It will just be a shame if it’s not in Houston.
If you can only choose one it has to be Altuve. Bregman has peaked for sure but he will get paid.
Hmm, i wonder if the Astros and Jays would consider a trade centered around Bregman? Jays could dangle Kikucci, Espinal and one of their best prospects like Leonardo Jimenez or Addison Barger. Just a thought since 3B is wide open for the Jays and Bregman would be an upgrade offensively but downgrade defensively from Matt Chapman.
Your best prospect for one year of Bregman? Why?
Not the Jays best prospect, i said “one of the best”. Barger is Nr 5 and Jimenez is Nr 6 according to MLB pipeline. Bregman is talented even if he only has 1yr left, he is valuable to the Astros for what’s been accomplished in his tenure there. A nr 5 pitcher in Kikucci, a utility player in Espinal and a good, not great prospect in Barger or Jimenez looks about appropriate.
Ahh, thank you. Read that too quickly. I see how the teams might match up because of the Jay’s need for a third baseman, but I don’t think Kikuchi would interest the Astros as the headliner in a return. It doesn’t fill a need. One year of Bregman at his peak salary is probably going to stay put, as he has more value helping them in their next World Series pursuit.
Would probably have to include someone like Lance McCullers Jr in to get that deal from the Jays.
Obviously you prioritize Altuve. He’s the one guy that you have to pay – he’s the best player in the history of the organization south of Bagwell. Bregman you would really like to keep if at all possible, but not somebody you overspend on.
Stros must keep Altuve and Tucker. Yordan is already locked in. Bregman is very good, not great anymore. He goes thru long stretches every year where he can’t hit his weight and then some stretches where no one can get him out. On balance he is not worth the $28.5M he is getting paid this year and not worth a 5+ year extension at a ransom. If I were the Stros I would trade him now.
This is a perfect example of what I’m talking about.
Bregman had 4.9 bWAR which equals $39.2M in value. He has 4.3 fWAR which equals $34.4M in value.
He may not be worth $28.5M in 2024 or 2029 but he was absolutely worth it in 2023.
Yeah, I don’t get the lack of love for Bregman. He’s still very, very good.
I think it’s mostly fantasy baseball talkers, because he doesn’t put up the big numbers anymore, as well as just being an Astro. People hold grudges for way too long.
@Astros that $/W calculation is nonsense. Not saying your comment is nonsense, but the stat guys who pretend to make that number mean anything. No way they can mathematically calculate it.
Brennan was never worth $38M and I’m a fan. Give him 5/125, which still seems high or let him walk. We should have brought back Luhnow by now
I don’t know who Brennan is but Alex Bregman would laugh at a 5/$125 deal.
He should and we shouldn’t pay him. How’s those Correia and Springer deals working out?
You are right that many longer contracts look terrible at the end.
Owners and front offices know if they want an established veteran FA, that is what it will take.
They need to best guess if the guy will he good for 1/2 the contract? 3/4 of the contract? Etc.
Players need to outperform the contract early, because they won’t do that late.
They also need to know- is there a Yordan Alvarez to replace Evan Gattis? A Kyle Tucker to replace George Springer? A Jeremy Pena to replace Carlos Correa?
The answer is “no”
So the Astros will need a 3B. Either pay Alex, pay somebody else, or deal with the lesser play and results.
I bet Alex will take 7 yrs / $175 and hope he takes 6/$150.
There is no scenario where the team doesn’t have poorer 3B play if he walks
I’d actually be ok with 7/175 even though he will be a drain after 5 years. Hopefully he doesn’t turn in to Rendon 2.0. I can’t disagree with anything you said though
There is always that risk, but Bregman is a much safer bet.
7 / $175 would only through age 37 season. Not ideal but much better than the deals that go through 39-40 or worse.
My thinking is:
$9-10M per WAR (17.5-19.4 WAR) is neutral.
under $9M per WAR is a good FA contract.
under $8M per WAR is very good.
over $10M per WAR is a bad FA contract.
over $12M per WAR is disastrous
He has averaged 4.7 bWAR and 4.9 fWAR the past 2 seasons. Let’s say 4.8 in 2024 at age 30.
Contract:
2025 (31): 4.3 WAR (-10%)
2026 (32): 3.9 WAR (-10%)
2027 (33): 3.5 WAR (-10%)
2028 (34): 2.8 WAR (-20%)
2029 (35): 2.2 WAR (-20%)
2030 (36): 1.6 WAR (-25%)
2031 (37): 1.2 WAR (-25%)
2032 (38): 0.9 WAR (-25%)
5 / $125M (16.7 WAR) = $7.5M per WAR
6 / $150M (18.3 WAR) = $8.2M per WAR
7 / $175M (19.5 WAR) = $8.97M per WAR (Semien)
7 / $182M (19.5 WAR) = $9.33M per WAR (Bryant)
8 / $200M (20.4 WAR) = $9.8M per WAR
none of these deals end up being “bad” but generally teams hope to spend less than $8M per WAR and players try to get $10M or more.
YeH ultimately I just don’t want to see us back in the final Drayton years where we were paying high prices for an aging mediocre team. Better to start rebuilding now and saving payroll. I imagine keeping Bregman and Altuve around. Is necessary to preserve the window but The worst deal was signing Abreu. Crane is starting to meddle and things could get ugly quick.
If Bregman is truly available then that’s the one name that Hoyer should be looking into for the Cubs. That would settle 3B for the Cubs for the near future and would be worth the prospect capital it would take to get him. Plus Bregman and Counsell are probably a perfect match philosophy wise. If it’s true, Jed should make the call.
Or just wait a year and sign him as a free agent.
Doesn’t really help this year now does it?
And trading prospect capital when you can sign him a year from now hurts your future. He’s not enough of a difference maker to go all in for. If you’re thinking that path, go after Arenado or Machado.
Arenado ain’t worth going all in for at this point either…
His decline is still very productive, and it was a year removed from one of his best seasons. His value is still very high, in my opinion.
If Bregman is truly available then that’s the one name that Hoyer should be looking into for the Cubs. That would settle 3B for the Cubs for the near future and would be worth the prospect capital it would take to get him. Plus Bregman and Counsell are probably a perfect match philosophy wise. If it’s true, Jed should make the call.
Sorry I tried to fix the typos and hit send instead. My bad. Oh and then it fixed them anyway. On time delay I guess.
What happens when you don’t tell the whole story?
“Boras will certainly be busy though, as he is representing a pile”
Bregman needs to be traded and traded now, the Houston minor league system is awful. Trade Framber and Bregman, neither player will sign with them and will want a huge payday. Reload the upper minors and keep the good times going! Keep your core of Altuve/Tucker/Yordan/Diaz/Javier/Luis Garcia and reload with some younger prospects. You can’t afford to keep everyone, Framber is a head case and Bregman is a Boras client who will never re sign with Houston. Mainly because Houston doesn’t pay expensive FA’s under Crane.
Agree. Totally.
Along with Lance McCullers Jr.
Framber definitely has to go. I did not appreciate his antics in the postseason. You can’t have somebody who gets so rattled in the big games. He walks somebody or a flare gets thru and has an emotional meltdown then all of a sudden five runs are in. Inexcusable. You’re in the big leagues son, deal with it. Mommy is not going to bail you out.
Honestly I’d rather see Framber and McCullers traded before Bregman. Framber could net a very nice return and McCullers is hurt, but the upside is worth his below market contract.
Certainly need to trade some of them…
Letting Bregman go would be a disaster. Outfielders are much more replaceable. There are VERY few excellent 3B out there. Bregman is 5th in WAR among all 3B from 2020 to present (yes, meaning AFTER those two elite MVP seasons he has still be top 5 in baseball at his position). The four ahead of him are all locked in on long-term deals. There is literally no way for the Astros to replace Bregman if he leaves. They have nothing in the farm as well, after penalties and dealing their last good prospects for Verlandersaurus.
Stros have Will Wagner in the minors – finished year at AAA – absolutely raked and plays third base. Keeping Altuve and Tucker along with Yordan is paramount.
I hope.
I want Wagner to be a great but even after all he has done and shown he is still considered unlikely to be a regular starter much less an all-star.
His glove, arm, and lateral quickness are suspect and he looks to have average (at best) power and speed.
Scouts think he’s Jack Mayfield with a better hit tool and less positional versatility.
Dezenzo is the guy who has the tools to be a starting 3B, but he will strikeout and not be as good as Alex with the glove.
Think Matt Chapman’s bat ( prior to this year) with Rafael Dever’s glove. If only it was the other way around.
I love Bregman, but I wish they would maybe trade him for a couple prospects. I have no solution to replace him mind you, but he is the only player who might get something back from. If he’s gone after next year then trade him and figure out infield. Pena can’t hit, and Abreu is not reliable. That leaves Altuve and Diaz as the only consistent hitters, who are both kinda free swingers.
Dubon should start at short if he hits better than Pena. The Astros need better offense. Bregman at third isn’t a hole, but right now we have a hole in the outfield, first, short, and third when Bregman is on his down streaks, which sometimes go on for a while.
Crane and his luxury tax hangup is going to screw the club. Either pay or sell the team dude, we don’t need another Drayton McClane. When the farm is bare, and you want to win a World Series, you have to pay to fill the holes.
Personally, I would try and sign some starting pitchers, build a dominant staff, and trade the lower rung pitchers for prospects. I don’t expect the moon but they have to get some talent in the pipeline. All those deadline trades and scandal lost draft picks have caught up with the Astros.
“…Crane and his luxury tax hangup is going to screw the club…” yeah I disagree. Signing Abreu was a terrible deal and a waste of money. I’d rather they rip the bad off and hurry up and reload rather than chase mediocrity like the Mets and Yankees. Cardinals are the best example.
My fellow Astros fans will hate to see this, but if they aren’t going to be able to sign him to an extension, maybe they look at trading Tucker. It would hurt, a lot, but he would bet an excellent haul in prospects (high level). May be too soon to consider, but the return would be at the peak now versus later due to team control.
As a Ranger fan I’m not sure why there’s any hurry to extend Bregman now. There’s no advantage for the team. Signing him now while he’s younger coming off a good year means a better deal for him. If the Astros are sellers at the deadline next year Bregman becomes a great rental for a veteran team in a playoff race. There won’t be any hometown discount. This is his one chance to get a big payday. He’ll simply sign with whoever offers the biggest contract next offseason. He might have a big year next season to get paid but remember how old 31 is for an athlete. They might still be productive or even good, but it’s unlikely they’ll produce at the same level they did as a 27 year old. And consider too that Bregman has an extra 2/3 of a season on his body too with the playoffs. At 31 next year he’s probably closer to around 32. Trying to re-sign everyone weighs down franchises quickly. I think the Astros should let him walk and try to get younger if they’re interested in keeping the window open.