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Twins Interested In Kenta Maeda Reunion

By Darragh McDonald | November 25, 2023 at 7:38am CDT

TODAY: Negotiations between Maeda and the Tigers “have intensified in recent days,” according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).

NOVEMBER 24: Free agent right-hander Kenta Maeda reportedly has “serious” interest from the Tigers but a reunion with the Twins is still possible. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that both the Tigers and Twins are interested in Maeda, though there’s nothing to indicate his market his limited to just those two clubs.

Maeda, 36 in April, has a long track record of being an effective major leaguer, with an earned run average of 3.92 in 190 games dating back to 2016. The last few years have been fairly inconsistent, with high highs and low lows. In 2020, he posted an ERA of 2.70 in 11 starts during the shortened season, finishing second to Shane Bieber in Cy Young voting. But his ERA jumped to 4.66 the next year and he ultimately required internal brace surgery, a variant of Tommy John, on his throwing elbow.

He was able to get back on the mound in 2023 and finished the year with a 4.23 ERA, though that figure disguises how good he actually was. In his fourth outing of the year, he was pummelled for 10 earned runs in three innings against the Yankees and went on the injured list due to a triceps strain right after. He returned in June and put up an ERA of 3.36 the rest of the way, striking out 29% of opponents while walking just 7%. Any pitcher will look better if you ignore their worst start but it seems fair to conclude that Maeda wasn’t 100% healthy in that nightmare outing against the Yanks. Despite his age and recent inconsistency, MLBTR predicted he could get a two-year, $36MM contract based on his strong second half and previous track record.

That the Twins are interested in a reunion makes sense on a couple of fronts. At the end of the 2023 campaign, they lost not only Maeda but also Sonny Gray to free agency, subtracting two key pieces from the rotation. Chris Paddack returned from his own Tommy John rehab and could perhaps soften the blow of those departures, but the starting rotation is clearly weaker than it was not too long ago. Paddack should slot in somewhere with Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, giving the club four solid options. Louie Varland had some home run troubles in the majors last year but showed enough potential there and in Triple-A that he could be considered a reasonable fifth starter. But he still has a couple of options and just 94 innings of big league experience to his name, making it sensible to bump him down to the sixth spot.

The club has also generally avoided long-term contracts for free agent pitchers since Derek Falvey took over as the club’s primary baseball decision maker after the 2016 season. They did give a four-year extension to López but the largest contract they’ve given to a pitcher apart from that was the two-year, $20MM deal for Michael Pineda back in 2019. Multiple reports in recent weeks have suggested that the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high, but Maeda’s age will prevent his market from going too crazy, which would suit the M.O. of the Twins.

It might also work with their specific financial concerns, as uncertainty around their broadcast rights is seemingly going to cause a reduction in payroll. They had an Opening Day payroll of $154MM in 2023, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but could potentially wind up in the $125-140MM range in 2024. Roster Resource estimates that they are already at $125MM, which perhaps doesn’t leave a ton of room for an estimated $18MM salary for Maeda. But they also have a potential surplus of position players and could perhaps free up some extra cash that way.

Jorge Polanco is making $10.5MM in 2024, with a $750K buyout on a 2025 club option. Max Kepler is making $10MM and is slated for free agency after. Christian Vázquez has two years and $20MM left on his deal. Kyle Farmer is projected for a salary of $6.6MM in his final arbitration season. Those players have all either been in trade rumors or speculated as candidates, with the club having enough position player talent to theoretically move someone and still have a strong core. If the club ends up flipping one or more of these guys, it becomes easier to see them fitting Maeda into the budget.

Ultimately, Maeda is probably just one of many options the Twins are considering. Similarly, while the Tigers and Twins have been specifically connected to Maeda, it seems fair to expect that there are far more clubs at the table. The fierce competition for rotation help has led to roughly half the league reportedly checking in on pitchers from Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Seth Lugo, while even Noah Syndergaard is drawing interest despite a nightmare season in 2023.

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Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins Kenta Maeda

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42 Comments

  1. rond-2

    2 years ago

    2 yr/28 mil. Age and injury are concerns

    Reply
    • Jarred Kelenic's Beer Can

      2 years ago

      I’d round up and go 2/30. Maeda’s still effective and right now the Kyle Gibsons and Lance Lynns of the world are getting $10-12 million a year despite being worse pitchers who are also old.

      7
      Reply
  2. CrikesAlready

    2 years ago

    The Sheriff might be a good long relief candidate over time.

    2
    Reply
    • corrosive23

      2 years ago

      He refuses to be a reliever, that was one of the issues when he was on the Dodgers. He demanded to be a starter. That’s why they traded him.

      dodgersnation.com/dodgers-kenta-maeda-currently-un…

      latimes.com/sports/dodgers/la-sp-dodgers-maeda-her…

      theathletic.com/1379224/2019/11/15/kenta-maeda-wan…

      2
      Reply
      • WrongM

        2 years ago

        “The Sheriff” refers to Paddack—an obscure enough nickname that someone who didn’t follow the Padres or Twins probably would have no reason to know it.

        2
        Reply
        • corrosive23

          2 years ago

          I replied to the wrong poster, sorry

          1
          Reply
  3. DonOsbourne

    2 years ago

    I have this crazy feeling the Twins will sign Dakota Hudson and convince him to occasionally throw the ball over the plate. He will prove to be a bargain and the Cardinals will be left white knuckling through Kyle Gibson starts. I just have that feeling.

    3
    Reply
    • stymeedone

      2 years ago

      I have a feeling the Cardinals will sign Syndergaard so they will have the trifecta of bad pitching for their rotation.

      2
      Reply
  4. slydevil

    2 years ago

    I still don’t really believe the payroll cut that much. TV revenue hurts, but going back to losing hurts the bottom line more. I don’t see them jumping up in payroll, but putting people in seats and good names on jerseys weighs in.

    Kenta wouldn’t be bad to have back, gray would be nice too… I just can’t see them taking a step back from the pitching wins championships approach after it worked way better than hrs and strikeouts method they’d been doing.

    2
    Reply
    • Finlander

      2 years ago

      Agreed. I don’t believe that a team defending a division championship will enter next season without a TV broadcast deal of some sort. “No TV revenue”? Naw, don’t think so. I look for $140-150M payroll for next year.

      Reply
  5. DarrenDreifortsContract

    2 years ago

    I would love for the Dodgers to bring him back home. I always trusted him in the postseason.

    Reply
    • Mustard Tiger

      2 years ago

      Agreed.

      Reply
    • martras

      2 years ago

      I’d be awfully surprised if Maeda was amenable to a Dodgers reunion after they absolutely butchered his contract.

      1
      Reply
  6. not alkaline

    2 years ago

    I would like the Tigers to sign Maeda and YY. They have the payroll space to sign 2 FA pitchers.

    2
    Reply
    • Motor City Beach Bum

      2 years ago

      Another article this morning said things are heating up with the Tigers. Maeda is solid. Yamamoto could be the next Yu Darvish (or Hideki Irabu) but I think he is young enough with a good track record that he’ll be successful. Maeda is a good lure but I don’t think they get YY unless they go trade for a young middle of the order bat to really show they are trying to get to the playoffs and win consistently. Chapman doesn’t do it for me at 3B…too much cash for great D and a hope for a return to form on offense. Trade candidates (realistic or not) could range from Bregman with Houston to Vargas with LAD. More likely they just wait on Jung and Keith to fill 2b and 3b and don’t go for it.

      3
      Reply
  7. NYMETSHEA

    2 years ago

    I see a one year deal with an option. 16 mil and 16 mil for next season with 2 mil buyout

    Reply
  8. Old York

    2 years ago

    GB% of 40.2%, the calculated GBkwERA is approximately 3.038. This and his SIERA (3.71 career) were much better than his ERA Twins defense didn’t help with the fact that they were 19th out of 30 for team defense so that is why the ERA is over 4.00. Put him on a decent defensive team and see what he does. Maybe Milwaukee, Texas, Arizona, KC, Seattle or San Diego.

    2
    Reply
    • rond-2

      2 years ago

      Good point about the Twins defense

      Reply
    • Finlander

      2 years ago

      Agreed – the Twins’ defense was uncharacteristically shaky last year. Injuries forced them to overplay utility players and rookies. I noticed an inordinate amount of IF throwing errors – not sure if that was related to the lack of a regular at 1B. Even Correa was charged with more errors than usual. I look for the Twins to address this for 2024.

      3
      Reply
    • PutPeteinthehall

      2 years ago

      Milwaukee and KC aren’t paying anyone they don’t have to. San Diego is maxed out. So take those three off your list. Could see him staying in the twin cities only if they shave off a few other veterans.

      Reply
    • martras

      2 years ago

      The Twins’ defense wasn’t the reason Maeda’s ERA was inflated.

      19/30 Fangraphs DEF rating at -8.2 runs over the course of the year.
      16/30 UZR at -6.3 runs
      21/30 RAA at -9

      Basically, over the course of 1400 innings or so, the Twins defense cost them 8 runs or so. That’s like an ERA increase of 0.05. Insignificant. The issue was probably just luck.

      Reply
      • Old York

        2 years ago

        @martras

        I’m not suggesting the Twins defense was the worst. I said they were 19th out of 30. However, based on RADef, while the rate was positive, it only sat at 0.16. For Maeda, that translates into 1.85 runs that the team defence saved him in the season when he pitched.

        But, I’m not going to blame it all on the defense. Lack of luck didn’t help and his GB% was at it’s lowest point in his career.

        Reply
      • Old York

        2 years ago

        @@martras

        Also, his SIERA and GBkwERA suggests he pitched better than his ERA was and those metrics evaluate what a pitcher can control. So, I’d suggest the defense and luck were not on his side.

        Reply
        • martras

          2 years ago

          @Old York – I like Maeda. He’s a little risky, but he’s a quality 2/3 rotation arm when healthy and he’ll be extremely cheap for delivering that performance relative to other free agency options. I just don’t buy the defense argument as the reason.

          Maeda’s slider wasn’t too effective last year. The vertical movement wasn’t quite the same and Maeda was leaving it up in the zone a little too much early in the year when he had arm fatigue. That contributed to his increased FB%. Maeda was highly effective after returning. I think teams will be noting that.

          1
          Reply
        • Old York

          2 years ago

          @martas

          Actually, if you look at BaseballSavant for Maeda’s page, you can see that his slider has actually been worse than it was this year in terms of V-motion.

          Reply
  9. 3768902

    2 years ago

    I Kenta wait to see what Yamamoto is Maeda of.

    1
    Reply
  10. ohyeadam

    2 years ago

    Would love to have Maeda back, especially at his expected price tag. Paddack and Varland both looked so good in the bullpen last year it would be nice to fill up the rotation

    1
    Reply
  11. darinc

    2 years ago

    Zero chance for Maeda to come back to MN if he wants 2 years and 18M a year..

    Reply
    • martras

      2 years ago

      I’m sure Maeda would like 10 years and $100 billion if he could get it. The question isn’t what Maeda wants, it’s what the market will support. If the market supports 2yrs at $18MM, I’m also inclined to believe the Twins aren’t going to be Maeda’s landing spot.

      Reply
      • darinc

        2 years ago

        If a team pays Maeda 36M for 2 years that GM should be fired.

        He’s a good pitcher when he is healthy. He also isn’t that young either.

        I would love to see him back for like up to 5M with incentives.

        Reply
        • martras

          2 years ago

          …if Maeda sucks so badly he’s only worth $5MM, why would you possibly want him back? Kevin Correia was making that for the Twins on a multi-year contract a decade ago.

          You can’t even get a decent reliever for $5MM per year.

          Reply
  12. Goku the Knowledgable One

    2 years ago

    Ken Tomata strikes again

    Reply
  13. The Saber-toothed Superfife

    2 years ago

    I’m interested in Charlotte McKinney but am also interested in Sophia Mudd. The Japanese market is enticing…….

    1
    Reply
    • The Saber-toothed Superfife

      2 years ago

      also

      Reply
    • The Saber-toothed Superfife

      2 years ago

      I’m pretty sure Mailbu should have it’s own team…..

      Reply
  14. Harry074

    2 years ago

    Do you think the reason Bauer is not getting signed is the commissioner? He would be a fit for every team and is affordable. Players have done a lot worse and he has really paid a life lesson learning amount of humility. This is collusion in my opinion, I feel a massive lawsuit will be filed if he does not sign. I definitely think he fits the Tigers and he would help the whole staff with his knowledge. He gives out a ton of info for young pitchers on his site and I would imagine most coaches and pro pitchers follow him for info and entertainment

    Reply
    • LambchoP

      2 years ago

      I highly doubt any team will entertain signing Bauer. The pushback from fans and teammates alike would be a disaster. Clubhouse chemistry is real and very important to a winning team, and a guy like Bauer is a clubhouse killer.

      1
      Reply
    • Motor City Beach Bum

      2 years ago

      He does not fit the Tigers. They just got rid of their problem children and don’t need another. He’s a great pitcher but I don’t want him wearing the Olde English D. Maeda will do just fine. Even Flaherty or Mahle would be interesting.

      1
      Reply
    • martras

      2 years ago

      No. Bauer is a long shot to be signed due to
      A) Being a known divisive force in the clubhouse
      B) Being an impossibly bad PR nightmare among most franchise fan bases.
      C) He’s currently facing a 4th sexual assault lawsuit in AZ. It’s another shake down attempt which I have no doubts he’ll win, but until that’s settled, no team will touch him.

      1
      Reply
  15. GB2

    2 years ago

    Maeda’s Family Reunion

    1
    Reply
  16. twinky

    2 years ago

    Well that ship has sailed.

    Reply

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