As the best pitcher in Japan who’s been made available to MLB teams at just 25 years of age, Orix Buffaloes right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto has always been expected to command an aggressive bidding war. Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs opened yesterday morning, and he’s unsurprisingly drawn widespread early interest.
Agent Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, who’s representing Yamamoto, told the Kyodo News last night that he’s already heard from 11 to 14 teams. Yamamoto’s negotiation window officially opened yesterday morning.
“This is by far the player with the most interested teams that I have ever seen at the beginning of free agency,” said Wolfe, an executive vice president of one of the sport’s largest agencies. As one would expect, Wolfe indicated that Yamamoto isn’t approaching free agency with any restrictions based on geography. (Even if Yamamoto does have some specific geographic preferences, those would likely be kept close to the vest — if only as a means of retaining leverage in talks.)
The list of teams already linked to Yamamoto in free agency nearly outnumbers the list of teams who’ve not yet had public ties to him. The Cardinals, Phillies (even after re-signing Aaron Nola), Diamondbacks, Tigers, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Red Sox and Dodgers have all been reported to have interest in Yamamoto. That’s 11 teams right there, and it’s surely not a comprehensive list. Yamamoto figures to draw interest from contending clubs and non-contenders alike, given the rarity with which a free agent of this caliber reaches the market at such a young age. Even a team eyeing 2025-26 as a more realistic range for competing could outbid the field for Yamamoto and know that he’d be squarely in his prime years when that window for contention is more earnestly open.
Yamamoto has been evaluated extensively by MLB scouts, with the consensus being that he’s a legitimate No. 1 or No. 2 caliber arm in a big league rotation. Between that ceiling, his age and his brilliant track record in Japan, he’s expected to command the largest contract ever for an NPB pitcher making the jump to MLB — perhaps a deal in excess of $200MM (plus the requisite posting fee). Yamamoto has won three straight Sawamura Awards in Japan — NPB’s equivalent of MLB’s Cy Young Award — and just posted a career-best 1.21 ERA in 2023. He’s logged a sub-2.00 ERA in four of his past five seasons while punching out better than 27% of his opponents against a tidy 5.7% walk rate.
Any team that signs Yamamoto will owe a posting/release fee to the Buffaloes. That fee is equivalent to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM (a combined total of $9.375MM), plus 15% of any money thereafter. Using MLBTR’s predicted nine-year, $225MM deal as a hypothetical example, that contract would come with a $35.625MM fee — a total outlay of $260.25MM for the signing team. Given Yamamoto’s youth and the substantial demand for him, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if any deal wound up containing an opt-out a few years into the pact, thus allowing him to return to free agency in his late 20s after having the potential to establish himself as a genuine top-of-the-rotation arm in the Majors.
Who he really makes sense for is BAL.
I wouldn’t bet on it but you are 100% correct. Would be awesome to see that!
Does the team get part of the posting fee back if say he opts out after three years?
NO!!
If the Big Dogs go after him the O’s will be out priced!
He makes sense for every single team.
It just seems BAL could use that undisputed #1. That would be big for their prospects going forward.
So could the Dodgers and many other teams.
Let’s see if Nootbar gets his buddy to joint the cardinals. We really need him and I think he’s someone that would excel pitching at Busch as well as having someone he’s best friends with. He was in town last week playing golf with Nootbar. Money isn’t everything and no geography bias.
Dodgers seem like the choice to me, they have an unlimited budget. They get both Ohtani and Yamamoto!
@slider – i would boycott baseball if that happened!
Only if ownership decides to spend the money….
I would just laugh when the Dodgers lose again.
I’ve seen a couple of comments here saying he makes sense for everyone, and I don’t think he does. I understand he’s young, and has been extremely successful in Japan. He’s also never thrown a pitch in the Majors. Everything is projections at this point. It’s a big financial commitment to make based on projections.
I think at this point mlb talent scouts are pretty darn good at evaluating Japanese pitchers. And with someone like Yamamoto with his talent and youth, that doesn’t come along very often.
20 years ago, maybe. but numerous players have come over and succeeded. his numbers are dominant and hes entering his prime. i think at worst he’s a solid #2 starter. i think the estimated price of 250 ish million demonstrates the risk because if he had those numbers in mlb hed prob get 350-400 million.
He’s got an ugly girlfriend.
/s
Scouts don’t know anything beyond looks
Plus the posting fee lessens what he would be offered compared to an existing MLB player.
The A’s. Pirates, and Royals are probably out. Other than that, every team can afford and he would be a good fit.
The Mariner’s ownership is cheap. They just dumped Geno’s 12 million dollar salary for a hard throwing but wild reliever and a catcher the D-Backs snared going thru waivers last week. Geno should have won the Gold Glove, and hit .319 w/risp, with 22 homers and 96 rbi’s, and a WAR of 3.2
Maybe they are making room for Yamamoto?
Darkhorse candidate Mariners. You would ask why? They have a lot of pitching, but it would allow them to more easily trade a Gilbert, Miller, or Woo. Not much hitting in free agency so you gotta go fishing where the fish are…and then trade for hitting.
A starting rotation of Yamamoto, Castillo, Kirby, Ray, and Woo would be pretty formidable next postseason.
True enough with your first thought regarding trading from a surplus. Your second point, not as much. The free agent market might be light on impact hitting overall but does feature two bats at the very top who should interest the Mariners, Ohtani and Bellinger.
Yamamoto is ranked #3 among FA’s and will likely cost more than Bellinger in terms of total contract dollars due to his age, to say nothing of the eventual posting fee.
Which means you are trading away Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller while also hoping that Robbie Ray comes back strong down the stretch from his May 2023 TJ surgery.
What bats do you expect the Mariners to target with Gilbert and Miller? Juan Soto might be possible in the right package but he’d be a one year rental with little likelihood of agreeing to a contract extension with Scott Boras as his agent.
The Mariners might be better off making a FA play for CF/1B Cody Bellinger, 3B/1B Jeimer Candelario and/or DH J.D. Martinez and just keep all their young SP’s.
Nearly Half The League Has Reached Out To Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Nearly Half of me cares
Makes a lot of sense for the O’s, but I don’t see them ponying up the cash.
Angerlos will never pay that much. Dear John, please sell the team.
He should make sense for every team. If a team like the Jays who have a rotation log jam already also been interested then why isn’t every team whether they are competing this year or not. I see just the teams that are unwilling to spend that would not be interested. That is the part that is broken about the game.
Yea tour right, they need to implement some type of floor and even if its not a hard floor but there is a tax like going above a certain level. The nhl has almost every team within 5-8% of the cap if not less. I dont understand how the mlb with double the home games and bigger stadiums
Murphy – it’s the union who refuses any type of ceiling cap and without it, the owners would never approve a floor. The tax penalties are the best the union will approve.
Very true…….but the players union
Dewey—Good points. However, the time to have had a salary cap was when Free Agency was instituted. That was the time for the owners to get together and say “Fine! You want Free Agency? Then we’re going to cap you guys.” A salary cap will never, ever happen.
He sure does make sense for Orioles, it would be Huge if they signed him!
Of course, the Organization took a decade to get over the Albert Belle signing, and then gave Chris Davis a massive deal. I think this is an Organization that is a little gun shy.
Other than internal issues, he’d be a massive get for the Orioles.
Twice bitten, twice shy?!
He REALLY makes sense for every single team..including BAL…gonna be a hell of a bidding war..maybe he approaches cole money
Cards will throw big money at him…like they did price….they were willing to take on Stantons contract….they will make an offer.. but I believe someone else will go beyond their puke point
He makes sense for every team in the league.
Of course half the league has reached out to Yamamoto. Every team in the majors would be lucky to have him. The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, and the Giants are the early favorites to land him.
Would the possible opt-out impact the posting fee? Does the posting fee get paid all at once up-front or is it continually paid as the player receives his paychecks?
Good questions. I also assume the posting fee does not count against the luxury tax threshold?
That part is definitely true. Good question about the opt-out though. It’s talked about as if it happens all at once, so in that case it would be based on the full contract. But that could just be a figure of speech.
Why would the posting team give up the posting fee? The guy isn’t a free agent.
From what I understand, the amount the posting club gets is based on the guaranteed money of the contract and is paid out up front. Regarding any option or bonuses, this is what the official MLB rules state regarding it:
“If a posted player signs a Major League contract that contains bonuses, salary escalators or options, a Japanese team may receive a supplemental fee equal to 15 percent of any bonus or salary escalators actually earned by the player, and/or 15 percent of any option that is exercised.”
So, they would be getting an additional amount based on any performance escalators or club bonuses paid to the player. An opt out won’t have any effect on the amount paid to the club since it is paid up front, but if a club exercised say a 2026 option on the player, the posting team would get a percentage of it.
Here’s a link to the article of it!
mlb.com/glossary/transactions/japanese-posting-sys…
Thanks!! Great explanation.
wow, i’ve never thought about that, great question. my fear would be that the match would be based on the full contract and not discounted for possible opt out clauses.
Maybe the first few years before the opt out are less money
My family, friends and co-workers are all “in” on Yamamoto.
The guy who tries selling me weed outside of the gas station every week is also in on Yamamoto.
I wonder if Yamamoto would bet on himself and accept a shorter-term, high AAV contract like 3/$100M? That would put him back in free agency at age 28 with $100M in MLB earnings to date. If he proves to be a true ace, he could sign a $300M after this initial 3 year contract.
I’m guessing he’ll lean more towards a longer term deal averaging around $25M-$27M per year with a few opt outs which would still allow him to cash in early if he proves to be a true ace, but it’s an interesting possibility.
The crazy thing is that the entire Orix team payroll last year was around $35M USD, so if a MLB team signs him to a $225M contract as predicted, the posting fee will cover Orix’s entire payroll for 2024!
Steve Cohen will empty his wallet for this guy.
So will half the league
@Pedro Martinez. Cohen has got the fattest wallet by far.
@377194: that wallet got them far last year
They’ll be smarter this year. Yamamoto is a great investment for now and the future.
@Pedro: How far it got them is irrelevant. The question was who has the deepest pockets and a willingness to spend it all. The answer is Cohen as evidenced by the last two offseasons. Last winter, it seemed like every time you refreshed MLBTR, the Mets had signed someone else (including Correa, though that fell through).
Yamamoto may not sign with the Mets, but I’d be surprised if anyone outbid him.
When he said “last year”, what he really meant was foe the past 30 something years now.
We are talking about who’s signing Yamamoto and not winning the World Series. So his wallet will go very far in signing him.
The Red Sox have billionaire owners as well.as many other mlb teams..probably best not to assume one of them or more wont just piss farther than cohen.
Big difference between 2 billion and 20 billion.
This is the most sensible sign for the Mets. Only obstacle may be Stearns may want to be conservative his first year
Foolish if he does. I think Yamamato is better than next year’s SP class as well. You only get 25 year old Ace’s, with no QO attached, maybe once a decade. Stearns should give him 30+ M a year to make sure he gets him. Cohen won’t be upset if he does. He gave Scherzer and Verlander $40 M a year at age 40 so why not $30-35 for a 25 year old.
I know.. that’s how’s stupid he is!!
Unrelated, but am I the only one who got old MLBTR notifications earlier today about Matt Moore, Howie Kendrick, and Erick Aybar?
That’s … strange? I wonder if our developer was testing some things and triggered a bunch of alerts on old posts? I’ll shoot a note looking into it.
Are you on the iOS or Android version of the app? And do you have notifications set for particular team(s) and other categories? Or just top stories?
Thanks for bringing it up.
Hi, I’m on Android, and I don’t have team or category notis set, just everything MLB. I just thought it was odd and it had me thinking Erick Aybar was making a comeback. Thanks for reaching out, Steve!
I have that issue with getting notification of old articles on Android from time to time, but mostly I access the site on my computer.
This has happened to me also from time to time, but I am not on android, I am using a laptop with windows 10.
It’s nearly Kendricksgiving, so…
This whole process with Yamamoto is going to be fascinating. It’s such a rare combination of talent and age that teams have to be aggressive. Teams need to be aggressive both to look to add him as well as to keep him off their opponents’ teams. (e.g. the Giants don’t want the Dodgers landing him and vice-versa, same could be said of the Cardinals/Cubs, Braves/Phillies/Mets, etc.)
Giants and Dodgers aren’t really all that competitive off the field at the moment. Giants are rebuilding.
agree
Instead of the Giants, you can put the Padres as the main rival against the Dodgers at this time.
Guess you missed all the articles about the Giants going all in this offseason. They have been mention in regard to Ohtani, Yamamoto, Snell, Bellinger, and just about every other top FA on the market. The only one I haven’t heard about them being one of the favorites to land is Hader. This website has a really good article about the top 50 FA and predictions of their landing spots. A large number of those predictions are for the Giants. Not near as large as the ones that name the Dodgers, but still a larger number than most teams.
Only one will claim the prize. Go Giants!
I have a suspicion the Giants will be all in on Ohtani. Not sure how that might impact their pursuit of Yamamoto.
They better pick a lane and stay in it . They have to sign one of them or Bellinger
The Giants have nothing? They are not competing for a few more years… Why would he go to the same exact situation? He wants to win.. Go to a team that just fired their manager and is rebuilding? He is going somewhere that has a solid backbone and support system. Not the Padres Angels Giants Mariners Boston. All the front office and manager turnover..8 managers changed hands.. none of these teams will be appealing to him.
It’s your right to have your opinion but I doubt you’re right. Most players want to see the direction a team is headed, and can that team show them the money.
I would hope they go hot and heavy on all of them. They can afford it. Sign all three. I know it’s wishful thinking but the effort should be there.
I can’t image that the Padres haven’t checked in but I don’t see them mentioned. This contract is either going to be a great deal or an albatross depending on his health over the next 5-7 years. I wish him the best and Happy Thanksgiving to all of the MLBTraderumors family.
They’re cutting salary. They’re in the very small category of teams that will almost certainly not bid. Heck he even makes sense for the Pirates, Royals, and Nats of the world (not that any will do it). They have almost no long-term commitments, and he’s so young he will still be in his prime when they’re good again. AND they can always trade him for a massive return if he turns out to be as good as anticipated.
The Padres are “cutting salary.” Hasn’t been confirmed by the team. Just rumors by the writers.
Padres will definitely be checking in on him. Preller went over there and scouted him this past year.
If signing him meant they would turn and trade Soto then I could see them doing so.
I’ll put the padres up there with as good of a chance as any team. They aren’t afraid of long term contracts. They have the need and the aav won’t be that bad. Less the sotos for example.
Preller went twice. Uhlman and Kemp led a group that went over for the Nippon Series late last month and early this month.
Is that why they sent two execs to see Yamamoto pitch in the playoffs and the Nippon Series last month and this month?
ONLY Acee has said that the Padres were cutting payroll and even he backtracked on the reason he claimed they supposedly had to do so.
YESTERDAY Preller said they were going to continue to operate the same way they had when Seidler was alive and do so for years to come. Kutsenda said the same in his statement after being named interim control person.
Bottom line is the Padres WON’T be cutting payroll. They might end up with a slightly lower payroll because they have more quality options this offseason that are cheaper, but not because some writer said they had to.
Yeah it’s very possible they won’t cut payroll. Those comments are pretty vague when you look at what their payroll will actually be in 24’. So nobody really knows at the moment.
I do lean more to them having a payroll above 200m then I lean to them having a budget of 200m. I’d be more confident it would be higher if Seidler was still alive and I get everyone since has said they will continue to operate with his vision still the same going forward.
At the same time I could see them cutting back some of the payroll but I haven’t heard anything from a padres source that matters that says they will. So you just have to guess a little when it comes to what those statements mean. The padres haven’t said what the payroll budget actually is in 24’.
How?
How could they cut payroll 20% and still field a championship level team? They have $179 million on the books today including Soto, Carpenter, Hosmer’s remaining salary, and the pre-arb players and they have 3 starting pitching spots, 2 bullpen spots, and at a minimum a backup catcher spot to fill.
I think they are going to be close to $230-240 million to start 2024. That gives them a little wiggle room under where they were in 2023 to pick up pieces at the trade deadline.
Well one way is via trades. The other is via low cost signings.
They were at about 250m before. Anything less is them cutting payroll. I don’t think they cut 50m off of it though. I do expect them to acquire a front line starter.
20% of $250 million is $50 million.
If their payroll is at the $230-240 million I said I expect it to be to start 2024 that is a 4% to 8% reduction in payroll. Its just not $50 million and its not getting down to $200 million. They will have to spend more than $20 million to have a competitive team even if they make trades to fill some of the positions.
So who specifically are you thinking they could acquire and for how much? Who is available in trade? Who would they sign in FA.
Here are my thoughts. The Padres go all in on Yamamoto. 10/240-250 is where I see that ending up, but $270 million would not surprise me. Padres sign Lee for about 5/50. Padres sign Sanchez for 2/10. Padres sign two of Fedde, Rodriguez, and Junis. Padres trade Grisham for relief pitching. Padres trade for Luzardo. (rumors of the Padres ongoing talks with the Marlins are pretty hot on MLB Network radio).
THAT is a championship level team and would be for several years.
That puts them at $235 million give or take $3-4 million.
Machado will be returning from an injury and probably won’t be able to throw so this is what the Padres look like at the start of 2024 season if they are able to do what I would like to see them do.
SP
Musgrove / Darvish / Yamamoto / Luzardo / Fedde / Avila / Waldron
Bullpen
Suarez(CL) / Rodriguez / Wilson / Cosgrove / De Los Santos / Junis / Kerr / Jacob / Morejon
Starting Lineup
1B – Machado / 2B – Cronenworth / SS – Bogaerts / 3B – Kim / LF – Soto / CF – Lee / RF – Tatis / C – Campusano / DH – Carpenter
Bench
C – Sanchez / Util – Batten / OF – Azocar / MI – Rosario
I could see something like this but I doubt they have carp at dh. I’m not even sure he will be on the team. They could go with Rosario or batten. Though if he isn’t traded Merrill will be in there. They can move Jackson all around keeping the dh spot open allowing manny to get healthy and then use the dh role as a rotation.
I do think they will make a trade or two to get another pitcher. Not sure they will sign Yamamoto. Though he would be my first choice but then again he is everyone’s first choice. They could look to acquire a guy like cease if they miss on him which would save them a lot of money vs Yamamoto. Specially when is posting few at that price will be over 35m.
Like how people say we won’t compete because we have no pitching. They will acquire pitching I have no doubt. I could see guys like iriarte in the pen as well.
Not sure if they will spend up to 230-240 but I feel like 220 is a pretty safe number. Of course that’s keeping Soto. If they move him then the payroll drops quite a bit.
You been listening to the SD sports radio today and yesterday? Several shows have said that Yamamoto was at Petco yesterday.
The St. Mary’s Catholic Church For The Blind could really use a guy of this caliber suiting up for their softball team. He would only have to pitch once a week and all games are day games. Could really lengthen his career and lessen the wear & tear on his arm.
Question? Do pitchers in Japan pitch every 5th day? Here is what I believe the brass is considering. Going to a 6 man rotation. They have tossed it around the last couple of years. I know Mikolas has sparkling numbers with an extra day off and maybe other have shows similarly. Only Waino disliked the idea. If so it makes the last couple of days a little more understandable.
At the age of 25, Yamamoto is a very young man who is about to leave his home and move across the Pacific to a country where virtually everything he knows will be different. The language will be different, the culture will be different, the mannerism of the people will be different. I imagine that will all be a big challenge for him, no matter how much money he gets paid. The Cardinals can offer him something that most, if not all of the other teams can, and that is someone who is already a friend in Lars Nootbaar. Nootbaar’s mother is fully Japanese. The two have reportedly played golf together. Their mothers are reportedly friends who have frequent phone conversations. Nootbaar and Arenado reportedly visited Japan after the regular season to watch Yamamoto pitch in a playoff game and to have dinner. Yamamoto and Nootbaar both have Wolfe as their agent. Wolfe reportedly has a good relationship with the Cardinals and made an attempt to persuade another of his clients, Giancarlo Stanton, to consider a trade to the Cardinals. Now, it is up to Dewitt to make an offer that Yamamoto and Wolfe will find appealing.
Luckily the mound, bases and fences are similar.
Mets can offer him the most money and Kodei Senga. Cards have no shot at this guy
Red Sox can offer him the Ace spot, a boatload of money and his best friend
Mets can offer the ace spot as well, along w a few teams.
To finish in last place again??
@yanks – haha got me there… and hey, maybe so for next year, but i think the mets future is bright between their young players and prospects, the changes theyre making at the top and in player scouting and development, and w the money they have to spend.
@Ma4170: Senga?
Senga could help recruit but from what i read, he and yoshida are closer as friends
So then it’s either the Red Sox or the Phillies? Red Sox has Yoshida and the Phillies have Yoshida’s idol – Harper. Sorry, neither of those teams are in the running. They were both named as interested and in the running. That disqualifies them from being the mystery team that will swoop in to sign him unbeknownst to everyone.
The Cards have one of Yamamoto’s closest friends in Nootbarr. Cards also have the money they can spend on a top of a rotation guy like him. If you see how Nootbarr was treated by the Japanese kids, then you will notice that he is a fan favorite over there.
@Cuddy: Red Sox have his former teammate and best friend Yoshida
Mets can offer him the most money and Kodei Senga, a friend has also reached out to him; his agent is Senga and Edwin Diaz’s agent. Cards have no shot at this guy
Also, keep in mind that whoever signs him, his Year 1 MLB salary will surpass his entire career earnings in NPB so I don’t think the team that bids the most for him will automatically win his services. Yamamoto set a team record for Orix last year by being paid $4.9M, which was close to double his salary from the previous season. He’s due to make 5X that amount in 2024 alone, so he doesn’t need to maximize his income to feel incredibly grateful for the amount of money he will be making in MLB.
agree
Joel Wolfe and Wasserman also represent Nootbaar and Arenado. Nolan’s brother Jonah works under Wolfe at Wasserman. Lars Nootbaar’s mom and Yoshi’s mom are good friends and supposedly speak daily. The Cards head Japan scout was hired out of Orix about a year ago. The Cards definitely have a seat at the table.
The Red Sox have his former teammate already in Yoshida and they were apparently friends as well so the Nootbar relationship isn’t that unique. Also, the Mets have Senga, but not sure if they are friends or not.
He can buy more friends with his 100+million!
If he signs with the Yankees, I’ll be his friend for free.
I’d like to see the Halos shift away from Ohtani and get this guy. Save the extra $ and get a few bats and another arm or pen help. At least Yamamoto knows that LAA has delt with Japanese pitching rotation and has the international fan base. Would be a great addition and boost for other free agents to join him.
No, I doubt any japanese pitchers are considering the Angels. Besides, the team is in no shape to contend for a few years. Minasian saying the team would contend was Arte’s saying to sell some tickets.
DG, I agree with you. We don’t need a high priced DH with an unknown pitching future after two TJS. I watch/listen to all Angel games, and to be honest, I’m over the hype, there are 25 other players. Although Ohtani fits Moreno’s agenda, a marketing bonanza, the Angels need pitching.
And who provided the brunt of pitching and offense for the Angels for the past three years? The guy who cost the Angels close to nothing and barely had any support. Just say you’re racist orhate Ohtani and let’s get this over with. Without him the Angels would’ve lost 100+ games over the past 3 seasons.
Wait…what does race have to do with any of this? I think Ohtani did great with us. The rest of the team? Not so much…this is baseball talk. Please keep race and politics out of it. Thanks
Angels have nothing except a last place finish… again
There should be a toilet bowl. 2 last palce teams
A’s will be in last place … again and you are muted.
I bet the As finish ahead
Only a team that can afford an oops will end up with a long term deal for outrageous money on a pitcher unproven in MLB.
This posting system is bogus for most of baseball outside a few teams and always has been.
Yoshi next Tanaka? Or better?
I was thinking the same. Tanaka had similar numbers (at least in terms of ERA and rough K and BB rates) at the same age. Yamamoto has the stronger beginning to his NPB career, but they seem awfully similar to me. Tack on an extra year and $3MM annually (for inflation, of course) and Tanaka’s 7/$155MM is a good basis for something in the 8/$200 range for Yamamoto.
10 years of salary inflation = nearly double the money. 9/225 is what this site predicted. I would not be surprised by 10/250-275
Yamamoto has a 1.82 ERA in 7 seasons in the NPB
Tanaka had a 2.29 ERA in his first 7 seasons the NPB
That is not really comparable. Its like saying deGrom is comparable to Clevinger or Verlander is similar to Bassitt over the past 7 seasons.
You can’t just straight compare, you need to see how the rest of the league stacked up. How does the hitting compare? What are the z values for their respective ERA’s? It’s apples and apples but maybe the weather changed.
And most teams will typically look at last three years because its a better predictor of the next few as opposed to the stats from 4-6 years prior.
For example, tanaka’s last three years in japan:
1.27/0.88 8.93 k/bb
1.83/1.03 8.75 k/bb
1.27/0.94 5.72 k/bb
Yamamoto last three:
1.39/0.85 5.15 k/bb
1.68/0.93 4.88 k/bb
1.16/0.86 6.29 k/bb
Not that drastically different
The ERA+ comparisons are 215 vs 145. Those are adjusted by the competition that particular season. More apples to apples.
So Tanaka was very good, but Yamamoto is great.
See above. Its far more of a difference when the era is compared.
padres= last place
Doesn’t matter, no one is paying more than Cohen. Mets have made him their number 1 priority
I think this angle is overblown. The Mets have changed philosophy to some degree. Doesn’t mean they won’t land Yamamoto, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk. Couple that with the fact that Yamamoto may pick an offer that is slightly less for a team more capable of winning in 2024 and it may be an uphill climb for the Mets.
How do you know their philosophy. The last thing Cohen said is we are looking at 2025 to target competing for the WS. Then he said but we will still put a capable playoff team on the field and sign some FA’s. They’re not just signing Yama for 2024. It’s a multi year contract.
He would probably prefer to play for a contender, like Ohtani. And who wants to live in a degrading crap heap like NYC?
The Angels are also known to be interested. The Angels, Mariners, Giants,and Padres had several people at the game he pitched in against the Carp while we were in Hiroshima in late-May. There may have been more that were not in that area they reserved for MLB scouts. Yamamoto pitched 8 innings of shutout ball that day. I am quite sure that other teams not on that list will at least reach out to Wolfe about him. .
What you are failing to see is that Angels Mariners Giants and Padres are not gonna compete for a few more years, if at all. Do you think he wants to be another Ohtani? He is the best guy in the league and played for the California Dreamers..His whole career there was a poop show. The Mets blew their wad, and the team still sucked in 2023 and sold off all the pitching.w
Why wouldn’t he come to the team that’s in a win now mode? Where he can see the Something in the Orange?..Thanks Zach….not Something in the toilet. Congrats to Texas Houston Philly Dodgerland and Atlanta.. Who else is worth a crap..Cincinnati? Baltimore? Toronto..if they ever figures it out?..
Fin are you on crack? Padres and Mariners aren’t contending?
What has the Mariners done? They came close and slid off.
what do they have 1 star player? 2…1 top SP..Padres lost Snell…Where Is the rotation? The Mariners were basically the lucky Mets in 2023. In 2024…they have 2 bats and 1 #1 SP..They will not win their division. Lucky to get a wildcard!
Fin – dude FA just started! Every team every year has to fill spots. Name a team that doesn’t right now? Is the current Dodger team a “contender” with that pitching staff? Come on man let the process work before you put a tr I. The dumpster.
Ironically, Seattle just cleared some money off the books for what is very likely a run at a very big target in FA.
LTC…Suarez gone so Mariners are selling now too!
After reading his comments. I can confirm he is on crack.
If the padres landed Yamamoto they would have a starting rotation of mustgrove, Yamamoto and darvish. Plus the prospects and what not to fill in the bottom two slots. It’s not hard to see.
The padres will find the pitching and will definitely be one of the teams expected to compete next year. Anyone who thinks there is no chance they won’t be expected to is delusional.
That what is referred to as “addition by subtraction”. Look at his stats for 10.5 mil.
Padres are clearing payroll and IOUs are being collected
You are on crack, right? Only explanation for saying that the Padres and Mariners are not going to compete.
Padres add Yamamoto and Lee and a couple of back of the rotation pieces and they are among the favorites to win the WS in 2024.
The Mariners missed the playoffs by one game. Their pitching will continue to be near the top of the league and it would not take much for them to make the playoffs in 2024.
The Giants are going to spend big this offseason. It may take then two years to make it back to the playoffs, but they are not that far off.
I doubt the Angels make the playoffs anytime soon, but that is one of 4 teams.
If you believe Cohen is not willing to spend money, especially on a young Ace type pitcher I have oceanfront property in Arizona to sell you.
new owner group..They will be dumping everything.
Padres=last place
What’s not to like? Few aces possess the velocity, stuff, variety and command that Yoshinobu Yamamoto offers. His delivery is simple and compact which lessens chance of injury. The perfect combination of nasty, filthy and clean. ⚾️
Great article breaking down Yammaoto’s arsenal:mlb.com/news/yoshinobu-yamamoto-statcast-preview?p…
I just read a separate article with his stacast numbers, which line up well w some other aces in terms of velocity and movement. It really is a very compact delivery, almost like he’s just playing catch.
Cards have 34 mil per in the que.come on down.
I’m not convinced $34 mil gets it done.
Meanwhile, Jerry Dipoto is thinking: “Free agency schmee schmagency, how can I trade for Jurickson Profar?”
With this many teams aggressively pursuing him, what i thought would be an 8-200 deal tops may go to 10-275 territory. Steep, and would leave just 3-4 teams willing to go there.
At 27m a year I think you would still have half the league interested. 27m for an ace level pitcher really isn’t that bad. Every single team can afford that and he is definitely young enough to get a 10 year deal. Plus in a few years 27m will seem like even less.
I’m starting to think if a team really commits to wanting him he could look at at an 10-15 year deal. In or around 30m per. If he gets 300m it wouldn’t surprise me one bit.
Wow, now that would surprise me just because not all Japanese pitchers can maintain a dominant level in the transition to MLB, so there is an element of risk. Also, im not sure that many teams are able to commit to a 10-275 deal. Like you said, the AAV isnt out of hand, but the length would keep many away.
Sure the length would but is it’s hard to see teams like the Yankees, Mets, dodgers, Phillies, braves, giants, cubs, rangers , padres…even the angles I could see do that. That’s 9 teams that I wouldn’t put passed doing that. Of course it will only takes one to make it happen.
You just don’t see guys with his stuff come available at 25 years old. Then you add in all the teams that need pitching and boom you have a chance. I could see many teams in this camp vs say snell at 30m for 7 years.
I think his market is going to be insane.
Angles? Engineers must own that team.
That is basically half of what Verlander and Scherzer are making and what Ohtani is projected to get. At the end of a 10 year deal the top players will be making closer to $70 million at the same level of salary inflation that happened the past 10 years. I don’t think any team would balk at giving him $25-27 million
I don’t either, I think his number may grow from the 200m range to the 300m range. Almost expecting it now.
I think the phllies braves rangers padres would all be out at that total commitment. Its not about the AAV at that point. For example, how many sp have $275M+ contracts? Ever? Cole and that’s it. And again, Yamamoto hasn’t thrown a pitch yet in mlb, which does matter.
The padres are the team that’s been the most willing to give out long term deals so counting them out is foolish to me.
They are willing to give Soto a long term deal so they could easily switch to Yamamoto.
Owner is no longer around..dont see it. They will be selling. Too much debt and IOU. O heard they took out a loan for a new Cub Cadersnot happening..Padres= last place
Who said anything about half of the teams “aggressively” pursuing him? Most of them are probably just kicking the tires to ratchet up the money spent by the mystery team to pay. Or enticing the writers to rumor mill that their team is interested to get their fans excited to really think their team is in on the hoopla and get publicity.
Wonder which half the buccos are in /s
He’s not marketable in St. Louis. Even Pujous didn’t get the accolades he would have gotten had he played (in his prime) in a major market.
Being marketable really helped Pujols in LA…
Hence the ‘in his prime’ bit
Nomo- decent / Dice k -ok/ Irabu – brutal…. What am I missing…. Japan league is not mlb hitters… careful Breslow…. Ohtahni- likely HOF. 1-4 I’m sure I’m missing many others but only Ohtani has lived up to his hype as a starter.. buyer beware…
Darvish. His numbers in the NPB were as good as Yamamoto. Closest comparable
Nomo pitched a decade in the majors and his numbers didn’t approach what Yamamoto has done in NPB.
Tanaka. His numbers didn’t come close to Yamamoto in NPB
Maeda His numbers didn’t come close to Yamamoto in NPB and he came over at age 28
Kikuchi His numbers didn’t come close to Yamamoto in NPB and he came over at age 28
Hasegawa His numbers didn’t come close to Yamamoto in NPB and he came over at age 28
Sasaki His numbers didn’t come close to Yamamoto in NPB and he came over at age 32
Ohtani obviously.
Senga,
Other than Kikuchi all of them had a MLB average or better numbers in their careers
Let’s say he is a 25 year old darvish. Multiple teams would pay darvish 30m a year for 10 years for his age 25-35 seasons. Hell he is almost getting that for his age 37-41 seasons.
Tanaka definitely had similar numbers in japan, last two seasons sub-2.00 era, and tanaka had better k/bb rates. I liked tanaka, but his numbers wouldnt warrant a $300M contract. Neither would darvish’s. Maybe youre both right and some team goes 10/300, but theres a reason the original projections were in the $200M range, and many teams would be out at that price.
Originally it was around 200m but as each passes that number continues to grow. He has an absolute huge market. One with every big spender involved. Price is going to go up.
Oh I’m definitely agreeing with you, i just think only about 4-6 teams would be in on that at most.
Yeah when you get to 300m you are prob right. I think in the 200-275m range there maybe a couple of more still in it.
Yeah, i just dont know where certain teams’ tipping points are
Yeah me neither. Pitching is a dangerous position to commit to long term.
Yeah.
こんにちは、由伸さん、あなたの親友の鈴木誠也です。私とショウヘイと一緒にシカゴ・カブスでプレーしに来てください。ここでプレーするのは楽しいし、チーム食堂ではおにぎりを食べます。非常においしい。また近いうちにお会いしましょう。さようなら。
Good luck with that. No way the Cubbies get both Ohtani and Yamamoto.
Jed is about to Mister Miyagi this window. Just you wait and see, giacgara-san.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto with Bello in the Red Sox rotation would be nice. But I can see it now, John Henry making a lowball offer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Something like 5 years and $75 million.
Then he signs for Atlanta for 8 years $75 million.
Philly. 9/275. Yamamoto and Painter lead them to a title in 2027.
Sheeeeeesh. I don’t think anyone is dropping Bogarts/Turner/Machado money on a guy who’s never thrown a ball in the MLB. That would be quite a bet.
Lots of demand for the most limited supply. If you believe his career numbers that contract will be a bargain in 5 years. Middleton is hungry and willing to spend stupid money, Dombrowski is aggressive, and the window is now. MLBTR projected 9/225. A title is worth the extra 5.5 million a year, and it’s covered by no longer paying Scotty Jetpax!
I don’t know if he has reached out to Wolfe about Yamamoto yet, but I know that Preller was in Japan to see Yamamoto and Imanaga and Korea to see Lee and others in May and then again in August.
Padres..Dodgers ugly step daughter.. will not compete in 2024
Yeah there is no doubt for me the padres will be in on him big time. I think he is the one guy they could sign that if needed the money for they would consider trading Soto to free up said money.
Are you better with Soto for 24 then walking or
Yamamoto for Soto plus the players acquired in trading Soto.
Obviously best with both but if they need to stay around 200m in payroll this would give them a chance at doing so and get some player capital back to fill other needs even in the starting staff.
Padres have about 180m in true 2024 payroll right now. Sign Yamamoto for say 27m a year and trade soto’s 33m. They save another 6m plus will get at least a decent starter back in return.
Then turn and trade for a guy like cease who will cost 8m. Sign Lee for like 10. Would have rotation of Yamamoto, cease, mustgrove, darvish and whoever they traded Soto for. Would bring payroll up to about 192m, trade Grisham and free up 5m. Then they are at 187m roughly.
Back load the Yamamoto deal to make it easier to afford the posting fee.
Anyways there is a way for the padres to do this. I expect if the padres do trade Soto something of this sort will be done with the 33m he would get in 24’.
SIMM, I had said a few weeks ago that a Soto trade that allows for a signing of Yamamoto or Montgomery along with one of Wacha/Lugo/ Martinez and then add Lee and a strong return for Soto would be ok with me.
For me, the Soto trade is as much about what are you doing with the money as it is about the return which should be pretty good but you never know with any prospect. I like the “better than Betts less than Soto” as the range of return – whatever that really means is yet to be determined.
Yeah the thing you get by trading Soto is 33m to spend. That gets you a prettt darn good mlb player. Then you add in what you get back for Soto (perhaps a player or two that is already on the mlb) and or highly ranked prospects. The only major issue is that takes the one big lefty bat out of the padres lineup which is very righty heavy. At least from the most quality side of things. If Ohtani was able to pitch this year I think doing this with him would be a big option.
Given there pitching needs I don’t think they can do that without spending 250+m on payroll. Not that it would shock me if their payroll was that high.
There are a lot of options for the padres still. The next two weeks will be very interesting to see what direction they go.
I would be ok with trading Soto AFTER they signed Yamamoto and Lee. If they didn’t have both under contract then the answer would be no.
The return would still have to be in the Betts range to make it worthwhile. Young OF or starting pitcher with 4-5 years of control that is putting up 3+ WAR, a top 50 prospect that is AA or closer, and another mid-level prospect at a position of need.
Then trade for Luzardo with the prospects you gain in the Soto trade.
Instead of Luzardo how about Glasnow?
Musgrove, Glasnow, Yamamoto, Darvish and one of Wacha/Fedde/Lugo/Martinez?
Luzardo made 32 starts in 2023, he is 25, he will make about $5 million, and has 2 more years of team control after 2024.
Glasnow is made of glass, he is 30 years old, and he is making $25 million.
.The Padres need a LH starter and few have been mentioned in the potential trade market. Luzardo is that big time trade Preller is known for making.
If the price for Lugo is truly 3/42, that is a little much in my mind. Would not mind Wacha at 3/32 or so. He is just too injury prone to be worth much more in my mind. .
Ok I’m sold on Luzardo. Agree on both Lugo and Wacha but think it may take more to get them with teams bidding. In the end, Padres (and others) are going to overpay for a #5 guy because they need one. Fedde as a cheaper alternative but doesn’t have the 2023 mlb track record of Martinez/Wacha/Lugo for example. You get lucky (good or bad) with either decision. Padres had good luck with the Lugo / Wacha contracts last year based on performance – value. Hoping it happens again with whoever they fill in with.
The Bay Area is great! We are almost the same as Japan here ! Bring Ohtani please!
Largest Asian community in the nation in the Bay Area. Hoping the Giants sign Ohtani. That will take them out of the race for Yamamoto, Takahashi if he is posted, and Lee.
Honestly he would be a perfect fit for nearly half of the league. In particular, Cardinals, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Red Sox and Dodgers.
It’s a done deal He’s going to the cardinals.
Lol poor guy
Is that why the Cardinals are singing all of the end of their career guys? To save money to sign Yamamoto.
The one worry I have about Yoshinobu Yamamoto is his size. He is 5’10”, 176 lbs. As comparison Dice-K was 6’0″205lbs. Ohtani 6’4″ 210lbs. Yu Darvish 6’5″ 220lbs.
It’s not surprising Ohtani & Yu Darvish have been more durable & productive than Dice-K in MLB. Yamamoto is smaller than Dice-K was.
I mean he still hits 96-97 on his fastball and can probably improve that a bit with MLB pitch labs and resources so it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Stroman is 5’7″ and Sonny Gray is 5’10” and they’ve had quite a bit of success.
Pedro Martinez was 5’11” and weighed 171. He did okay.
Yeah that name sounds familiar. Not a bad hurler if I remember correctly.
I didn’t see White Sox on the list. It’s time for White Sox fans to stop supporting a big market team with a small market owner who has no chance to compete with the owners who want to win championships like the 14 teams on the list. I respectfully ask the chairman to sell the team.
Go sign where whoever city has the best sushi and seafood place it’s not about the money it’s about the food.
San Diego. Point Loma is literally the town tuna built.
This is the guy the Dodgers should break the bank on. Not a 31 year old 1.5 way player with a history of arm trouble
Which half is interested?
The riskier half.
Just another player for the rich teams and their bandwagon fans.
One thing to remember free agents usually are over paid, and don’t meet expectations. Ohtani is the only sure thing this year!
When will Yamamoto have his first TJ surgery? Who knows? It’s such a shame to watch today’s pitching talent go down left right and center. Part of the problem is the unnecessary bulking up, he doesn’t seem to have that, his BMI is barely over 25. Then there’s the 100 MPH obsession causing ridiculous mechanics leading to blown out ligaments. Hope he doesn’t have that, but I haven’t watched him throw. Maybe it’s free and easy, maybe not. But it’s becoming a time bomb for way too many pitchers.
Every team should have an interest in him. He’s young and talented. There’s no excuse for not at least expressing initial interest.
I believe There is no Cap implications for a Posted Player but it takes away The Pool money,Right? (someone correct me if I’m wrong) Looking at it objectively. I’m going 1st where pop flies don’t go over the fence and the Team has Lots of Cap Space ,with young players that have a Stable Manager/Management which will Naturally end up being a Winning Team. Just my thoughts???♂️
No it doesn’t count against the pool money. Pool money has a limit that you can’t over spend. This guys would be 100 years worth of a teams limit.
I was all in on Space Battleship Yamamoto.
I was thinking more like Mr. Roboto Yamamoto.
With Ohtani pretty much already wearing Dodger blue; I’d love to see him sign with the Giants and really reignite the best West Coast rivalry
Or, most of the league has NOT reached out to Yamamoto. Which I find even more remarkable.
Murakami is also going to get a big deal after next year, despite extreme defensive limitations.
I’m excited to see what he does stateside.
Half the league has checked in on Yamamoto and the other half will do so shortly because if you’re an organization and you don’t at least do your due diligence you should be fired.
Patiently waiting to see the Cardinals signing of Noah Syndergaard or Jake Odorizzi… maybe some James Paxton?
Headline: Nearly Half The League Has Reached Out To Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Cue McCartneys’ “Haaaands Across the Water”
If I was a betting Man , I say Angels Re sign him then trade Trout. I’ve thought this for a couple years now.
Half the league reached out to him? That means half the league isn’t doing their job.
No, it means the other half are the “mystery team” that no writer knows about yet.
Maybe Yamamoto will sign on December 7th with the sleeping Giants?
Snell or Yamamoto makes sense for the Rangers. Then Hader and Garver/Hoskins for part time DH/1B.
So, that leaves the “mystery teams”. Which one of these teams will swoop in and make all the predictions look like a bunch of hogwash?
The mystery teams in the running are…
Astros, A’s, Angels, Braves, Brewers, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins, and the White Sox.
Note: If any of these come to the forefront in the rumor mill as being in talks or interested. Cross them off your list as signing him.
I will be in the vast minority of Dodgers fans when I say that I am not thrilled about an Ohtani signing. At least for the crazy money being thrown around in the media.
Is he probably the greatest talent to ever play? Probably.
Two surgeries now and lots of miles on that arm for a 1/2 billion and lots and lots of years.
Of course, he is still one of the best hitters in the game as well but so much payroll to one guy, with health issues now, is a gamble. One that I don’t think LA needs to take.
Someone like SF? Yeah, they probably need to take the risk. They have a depressed fan base with little hope on the horizon and Ohtani fires that base up and also probably helps sign other top tier guys as well. Probably lots of teams in this same boat. Seattle, Cleveland, Mets, Yankees, Cards, etc.
I’d rather see LA stick to its methodology to shorter term deals with high AAV unless you get a Mookie or Freeman fall in your lap. If Ohtani was healthy, then I would be all in.
I don’t disagree with the logic but the only problem is that he is in fact worth every penny because he can both pitch and DH. He fills two roster spots in one, thus adding twice as much value to what ever team he goes to