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Kenta Maeda

Injury Notes: Kirilloff, Maeda, Ahmed

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Twins first baseman/outfielder Alex Kirilloff started swinging a bat earlier this month, and is currently taking 50-60 swings a day according to Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. Kirilloff underwent season-ending wrist surgery in August last year.

Kirilloff has long battled wrist injuries, landing on the IL four times for that reason since making his big league debut in 2021. The once highly touted prospect hasn’t hit much in his time in the majors, compiling a combined .251/.295/.398 line with 11 home runs over 387 plate appearances. That’s a disappointing return for a bat-first player, although it is fair to wonder just how much these wrist issues have hampered his output even when he’s been on the active roster.

The Twins have a crowded outfield picture at the moment, particularly after acquiring Michael A. Taylor from the Royals, but the trade of Luis Arraez has seemingly opened up first base for Kirilloff. Given the injuries and output to date, there’s quite a bit of risk in relying on the 25-year-old as the primary first baseman, but there’s also significant upside too. Kirilloff was one of the top prospects in baseball before reaching the big leagues, and if he can show he’s past his wrist issues and unlock some of his potential that Twins could find themselves with a valuable middle-of-the-order bat.

Here’s some other notes from around the league:

  • Sticking with the Twins to begin with, starter Kenta Maeda is set for a normal spring training with no restrictions, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Maeda missed the entire 2022 season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Maeda, 35 in April, is entering the final year of his contract and set to earn a modest $3MM salary. Given he underwent internal brace TJ surgery which typically requires a slightly shorter recovery time, and there had initially been hope that Maeda would be available towards the backend of last season, it’s not a huge surprise that he’s shaping up nicely for 2023. Maeda’s most recent sample of work came in 2021, when he worked to a 4.66 ERA over 21 starts.
  • As he works his way back from shoulder surgery, Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed has begun hitting and throwing, per Nick Piecoro of AZ Central. Piecoro adds that Ahmed is not expected to have any restrictions by the time spring training rolls around. Having been hampered by shoulder problems for the past few years, Ahmed underwent season-ending surgery in June last year having been restricted to just 17 games in 2022. Ahmed has never been a huge threat at the plate, but has been one of the game’s best defenders at shortstop, amassing 154 Outs Above Average since 2016, trailing only Francisco Lindor’s 161 for best in baseball in that timeframe. Ahmed, 33 in March, is entering the final year of his contract and will take home a $10.375MM payday in 2023.

Twins Drawing Trade Interest On Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda

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The Twins have received interest from other clubs in starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. It’s not clear how open Minnesota is to moving either player, although it stands to reason they’d at least gauge the market and see if another club were willing to bowl them over with an offer.

It’s unsurprising other teams would eye the pair of Minnesota righties, both of whom have established track records as productive MLB starters. Gray would be the more appealing of the duo, as Maeda didn’t pitch in 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery he underwent in September ’21. Gray dealt with a few health issues himself, missing time with a pair of strains in his right hamstring and a pectoral strain. Around the trio of injured list stints, the righty pitched well, though.

Acquired from the Reds in Spring Training, Gray made 24 starts during his first season in Minnesota. He posted a 3.08 ERA across 119 2/3 innings, fanning an above-average 24% of opponents against an average 7.4% walk rate. Gray’s 44.5% ground-ball percentage was a personal low, but it was still a bit better than par. At his best, the two-time All-Star generates a rare combination of whiffs and grounders. He hasn’t reached 30 starts in either of the past two seasons, but Gray’s an upper mid-rotation caliber arm when he’s healthy.

At year’s end, Minnesota made the easy call to exercise a $12.5MM option on his services. He’s slated to return to the Twin Cities for what’ll be his age-33 campaign before hitting the open market for the first time.

Maeda is also down to his final year under contract, with his salary to be determined by his health. The righty is headed into the final season of the eight-year deal he initially inked with the Dodgers coming off from Japan. That deal was layered with innings-based incentives, as the Dodgers expressed concerns about Maeda’s medical evaluation at the time.

The 34-year-old is due a $3MM base salary, and he’ll lock in a $150K bonus for being on the Opening Day roster. Maeda can earn an additional $10MM annually in incentives. He’d pick up $1MM each for reaching 15 and 20 starts, and $1.5MM apiece at 25, 30 and 32 starts; he can tack on up to $3.5MM based on his innings totals between 90 and 200 frames in a season, and he’d receive a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

While there’s a chance for Maeda to earn more than Gray does next season, that’d only be in the event of his staying healthy after a lost season. If his elbow holds up and he regains his pre-surgery form, the 6’1″ hurler would be a nice addition to the middle of a starting staff. Maeda was brilliant in the shortened 2020 season, securing a second-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting with a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts. He struggled to a 4.66 mark in 21 appearances the next year, but his strikeout and walk rates remained strong. Since coming off from the Dodgers during the 2020-21 offseason, Maeda has provided the Twins 173 frames of 3.90 ERA ball with a 27.5% strikeout percentage.

It’s worth reiterating that while there’s no harm for other teams in reaching out to president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and his staff, Minnesota isn’t under any pressure to deal either pitcher. They’re both a year from free agency, but the Twins are generally expected to make another run at competing in 2023. Minnesota has had two straight disappointing seasons, and they’ll now have to overcome the free agent loss of Carlos Correa. Yet the Twins have ample payroll room, with a projected 2023 payroll nearly $30MM south of this past season’s Opening Day mark.

The Twins have been tied to each of the top two remaining free agents, Dansby Swanson and Carlos Rodón. They could fit either player into the long-term budget without subtracting anyone from the existing roster, and landing either would signal a firm commitment to trying to compete in the American League’s weakest division. Still, the Twins have also shown at least some willingness to shuffle up their MLB roster. They’ve reportedly given some consideration to moving defending AL batting champion Luis Arraez if it nets them major league help elsewhere, and they could explore a similar path with right fielder Max Kepler.

As things stand, Gray and Maeda are set to feature in an Opening Day rotation that’ll include Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Prospects Simeon Woods Richardson and Josh Winder are on hand as depth options, as are Cole Sands and Louie Varland. Minnesota could welcome Chris Paddack back in the season’s final two months if his recovery from a second career Tommy John surgery goes according to plan. There’s enough health uncertainty the Twins could choose to stockpile their rotation depth, though the presence of a few interesting younger options at least gives the front office alternatives if they were to ponder making Gray or Maeda available.

Twins Do Not Expect Kenta Maeda To Return During Regular Season

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It’s unlikely the Twins will welcome back Kenta Maeda from the injured list during the regular season, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey informed reporters (including Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). While Maeda hasn’t suffered any kind of setback, it seems the organization is just running out of time to get him back on a major league mound.

Maeda underwent an internal brace Tommy John surgery last September, making it viable that he’d miss the entire 2022 campaign. He and the Twins had expressed hope he’d be able to make it back to the mound in September this year, with the internal brace procedure having a slightly more expedited recovery timeline (around 9-12 months) than a typical complete UCL reconstruction. Maeda has been throwing bullpen sessions but hasn’t yet started out on a minor league rehab assignment. He’d surely need multiple weeks to build back up in the minors, and with just five weeks remaining in the regular season, the Twins are apparently disinclined to push him back.

The mention of Maeda not returning in the regular season at least leaves open the possibility of a playoff comeback. Minnesota sits two games back of the Guardians in the AL Central race. They’re firmly in the mix for a postseason spot but far from a lock, so it’s possible Maeda won’t have any playoff games to target. If the Twins do reach the postseason, that’d extend the window for his potential return, although there’d be real risk in installing a player who hasn’t thrown a big league pitch in 14 months directly into a playoff series. It seems more likely that 2022 will wind up going down as a lost year entirely for Maeda. He’s under contract for a modest $3MM next season, and the Twins will presumably pencil him into the season-opening rotation if he has a normal offseason.

While the news on Maeda is a bit discouraging, the Twins provided positive updates on both right-hander Bailey Ober and outfielder Trevor Larnach (Park links). Ober, who has been out since June 1 with a groin strain, is set to begin a rehab assignment on Thursday. The club plans to deploy him as a multi-inning reliever for the stretch run, as building him back to starting would require too lengthy a rehab stint. Larnach, who has been out since undergoing core muscle surgery in late June, is also expected to start a rehab assignment this week.

AL Notes: Yankees, Stanton, Blue Jays, Mayza, Twins, Maeda

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Giancarlo Stanton is beginning a rehab assignment today, per Lindsey Adler of The Athletic (via Twitter). Before this latest injury, Stanton had been enjoying a run of sound health. For the season, Stanton has appeared in 80 games, slashing .228/.309/.498 with 24 home runs in 328 plate appearances. Stanton even started 38 games in the outfield grass, his most defensive action since 2018. Elsewhere around the Junior Circuit…

  • Blue Jays southpaw Tim Mayza will begin a rehab assignment in Triple-A today, per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com (via Twitter). Mayza has been a key piece of Toronto’s bullpen for a number of years, no less so this season when he has pitched to a 2.88 ERA/3.94 FIP across 41 appearances totaling 34 1/3 innings. Mayza has been out of action since August 7th. The 30-year-old has held lefties to a .157/.218/.275 line this season.
  • The Twins are cautiously optimistic that Kenta Maeda might be able to return late in the season to pitch out of the bullpen as he used to for the Dodgers. Maeda is throwing bullpens now, but President of Baseball Ops Derek Falvey was non-commital about Maeda’s ability to make a late-season appearance, per Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News (via Twitter). Maeda is recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Injury Notes: Gore, Bryant, Flaherty, Twins

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Newly acquired Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore will resume throwing this Friday, manager Dave Martinez told reporters this weekend (Twitter link via Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post). Gore, the former No. 3 overall draft pick and top pitching prospect in the sport, has been sidelined since July 25 due to elbow soreness. A previous MRI did not reveal structural damage, however, and the Nats were clearly comfortable with Gore’s medical records upon reviewing them in advance of the Juan Soto blockbuster that sent him from San Diego to Washington. Presumably, he’ll require a minor league rehab stint before jumping into the big league mix for the Nationals, but Friday’s throwing session will be an important first step to monitor as he begins that progression. Assuming good health, Gore looks poised to play a pivotal long-term role in the Nationals’ rotation, joining Josiah Gray (acquired in last summer’s Max Scherzer/Trea Turner deal) as a building block acquired at the deadline.

Gore absolutely overpowered opponents through early June, pitching to a 1.50 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate across the first 48 innings of his career. He’s been tagged for 27 runs in 22 innings since that time, however, working with diminished velocity along the way. Gore only pitched 50 1/3 innings last year (plus some work at the team’s Spring Training complex while going through a mechanical reset), so workload was always expected to be something of an issue in 2022. The Nationals have not made clear the extent to which they’ll monitor his innings moving forward.

Some more health situations to monitor around the league…

  • Rockies outfielder Kris Bryant is currently in a walking boot due to a case of plantar fasciitis, and there’s no timetable for his return to the field, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes within a broader look at another disappointing season for the Rockies. Colorado signed Bryant to a seven-year, $182MM contract over the winter but have thus far received just 42 games and 181 plate appearances from the former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP. Bryant’s power was MIA early in the year while playing through a back injury that required two IL stints, but he did bat .330/.398/.567 with 13 extra-base hits (five homers, eight doubles) in 108 plate appearances between his most recent trips to the injured list.
  • Cardinals righty Jack Flaherty believes issues with his mechanics led to his latest trip to the injured list, per MLB.com. The starter spent most of the season on the injured list due shoulder problems, returning to make three starts in June before returning to the 60-day IL. That means he’s ineligible to return until late August, though he has started throwing this week, trying to iron out those mechanical issues and potentially starting a rehab assignment soon. “You start doing things incorrectly for a while and then you repeat it over and over again — eventually something is going to flare up,” Flaherty says. “The goal was to clean things up and sharpen things up so that that doesn’t happen. That’s what we’ve been working on, so hopefully things stay that way.” If he can return before the season is out, he could provide a boost to the rotation down the stretch, though the Cards added Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery at the deadline to proactively address the situation.
  • The Twins expect righties Josh Winder and Bailey Ober to begin throwing bullpen sessions Tuesday, tweets Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. Winder has been widely regarded as a top-100 prospect this year and has given Minnesota 45 1/3 frames of 3.77 ERA ball in his big league debut, but shoulder troubles have slowed him of late (as has been the case in past seasons as well). Ober has made 27 starts for the Twins dating back to 2021, pitching to a 4.14 ERA along the way and serving as a generally solid back-of-the-rotation arm. He’s been out since June 1 due to a groin strain that proved more severe than originally believed. The Twins remain hopeful that each of Winder, Ober, outfielder Trevor Larnach and right-hander Kenta Maeda (recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery) will be able to return in September, tweets Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of SKOR North tweets that right-hander Randy Dobnak will head out on a minor league rehab assignment Thursday, giving the Twins some additional depth on the horizon.

Twins To Sign Joe Smith, Place Kenta Maeda On 60-Day IL

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12:55pm: It’s a one-year deal worth $2.5MM, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. To make room on the roster, Kenta Maeda has been placed on the 60-day IL. The news on Maeda is merely a formality, as he had Tommy John surgery last year and will miss most of the season, hoping for a September return.

10:58am: Right-hander Joe Smith is signing with the Twins, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

This is something of an early birthday present for Smith, as he will turn 38 years old on Tuesday. A veteran of 14 MLB seasons at this point in his career, the sidearmer has played for the Mets, Indians, Angels, Cubs, Blue Jays, Astros and Mariners. In that time, he’s appeared in 832 big league games, with a 3.09 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 54.1% ground ball rate.

The last time Smith was a free agent, he signed a two-year deal with the Astros prior to the 2020 season. The righty ended up opting out of that pandemic-shortened campaign due to family health concerns, the first season he missed since 2006. He returned last year and showed a bit of rust, putting up an ERA of 4.99 over 39 2/3 innings. His previous career high was 3.83, set way back in 2010. However, he clearly improved as the season went on, as can be seen when comparing his time before and after a trade from Houston to Seattle. Prior to the deal, he had an ERA of 7.48, with a measly 16.5% strikeout rate, though his 3.9% walk rate was excellent. As a Mariner, his ERA was an even 2.00 and his strikeout rate jumped to 24.3%, with his walk rate nudging up only slightly to 5.7%. Those are small samples, but the brief stint with the Astros in the first months of last year seems to be the outlier here, as the rest of Smith’s ledger is very strong. Also, Smith’s batting average on balls in play was .413 before the deal and .229 after. Given his career BABIP of .276, it seems possible to attribute his first-half numbers to poor fortune.

For the Twins, they have been extremely busy in the post-lockout period, totally remaking their lineup, subtracting Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver but adding Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela and Carlos Correa. The main focus now will be on whether they can bolster their pitching staff enough to help that lineup compete this year. Adding Sonny Gray to the rotation surely helped, and now Smith will strengthen the relief corps. It’s a relatively inexperienced group, with Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey being the only other projected members of the bullpen with more than four years of MLB service time, making Smith a logical addition for his veteran presence.

Kenta Maeda Aiming For September Return From Tommy John Surgery

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It’s been nearly five months since Twins righty Kenta Maeda underwent Tommy John surgery, and while a September Tommy John procedure often wipes out the following season for a pitcher, Maeda recently told reporters in Japan that he’s aiming for a return this September (link via The Manichi). At present, his recovery appears to be on track, as Maeda revealed he’ll begin playing catch sometime in mid-February.

Maeda, 33, struggled through groin and elbow injuries last season before ultimately going under the knife on Sept. 1. He had an internal brace put into his elbow, which manager Rocco Baldelli said at the time of the surgery could help to expedite the righty’s recovery. There’s obviously a long way to go before it’s clear whether a 2022 return is an actual possibility, but Maeda says it’s “not a zero percent chance” that he can return late in the year.

Acquired in a 2019-20 offseason trade that sent Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers, Maeda was nothing short of brilliant in his first season with Minnesota. The 2020 campaign, of course, was shortened to a 60-game slate, but Maeda made 11 starts and finished second in American League Cy Young voting. That season saw him pitch to a 2.70 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (32.3%), walk percentage (4.0%), ground-ball rate (49.0%), swinging-strike rate (17.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (40.8%).

This past season was another story entirely. Maeda made 21 starts but tallied just 106 1/3 innings with solid but diminished strikeout and walk rates (24.9% and 7.1%, respectively). His fastball velocity dipped by about a mile per hour, and the elite hard-contact suppression he showed in 2020 trended back toward league-average levels. Along the way, Maeda had multiple IL stints and was the subject of some trade-deadline chatter before finally requiring surgery.

Even though Maeda wasn’t at his best in that injury-plagued 2021 campaign, his absence will nevertheless be felt by a Twins team that still has a dire need for starting pitching. It’s doubtful that Maeda’s surgery would’ve altered the decision to trade Jose Berrios to Toronto in return for a pair of highly touted prospects, but the Twins surely thought they’d have Maeda leading their 2022 staff at the time that deal was made.

Instead, Minnesota entered the offseason knowing that Maeda and Berrios were out of the picture — and also recognizing the possibility of free agent Michael Pineda signing elsewhere. Despite the glaring nature of that rotation deficiency, they’ve yet to really address the matter. Minnesota took a $5MM flier on right-hander Dylan Bundy, hoping they’ll be able to get something closer to the former Orioles/Angels hurler’s 2020 results than his 2021 output, but that’s the lone move the team has made to deepen the staff.

Bundy will join a rotation that should include towering right-hander Bailey Ober, who quietly posted a solid rookie season with a downtrodden Twins club in 2021. Rookie Joe Ryan, an Olympian with Team USA and the centerpiece of the trade that sent Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay, had a strong September debut with the Twins and looks all but assured a spot as well. Baseball America rated him among the game’s Top 100 prospects just last week.

That said, the Twins sat out the free-agent market for virtually all of the top names — barring Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, who remain unsigned — and will now likely turn to the trade market and/or add another veteran from the lower tiers of the market. (There was some mutual interest in a Pineda reunion late in the season.) Getting Maeda back into the fold in September would be a boon, but for a team whose owner plainly stated the club would not rebuild after a disappointing 2021 season, the lack of activity to date has been rather surprising.

Every Team’s Initial September Callups

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The limit on active roster players expanded from 26 to 28 today, as the calendar flipped to September. Every team announced at least two additions to the big league club (some teams made three or more due to injured list placements). Here’s a recap of today’s spate of transactions:

Kenta Maeda Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Twins ace Kenta Maeda underwent Tommy John surgery today, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press and Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). The operation involved the placement of an internal brace in Maeda’s elbow that apparently has a chance to expedite the recovery timeline. While Tommy John rehabilitation typically takes around fourteen months, Baldelli suggested Maeda could return in between nine and twelve months time. A more definitive timetable will be apparent a few months from now.

It’s not a particularly surprising development, as Baldelli acknowledged that a Tommy John procedure was a possibility when he announced that Maeda would be going under the knife last week. Nevertheless, it’s unquestionably disappointing for a Minnesota team that — even in a best-case scenario — will have to navigate at least half the season without their top pitcher.

Even if everything progresses well, it seems unlikely Maeda will be able to return before next season’s All-Star Break. A nine-month shutdown would keep the right-hander from throwing until early June. He’ll need at least a few weeks to build up arm strength once he’s cleared to begin throwing and will have to embark upon a lengthy minor league rehab assignment.

Losing Maeda makes the Twins’ attempt to compete in 2022 all the more difficult. While Minnesota was widely expected to contend for the American League Central entering this season, the team started dreadfully and played their way out of the playoff picture almost immediately. They enter play tonight 58-74, placing them at the bottom of the division with a -100 run differential.

The rotation has been perhaps the biggest reason for that massive underperformance. Offseason pickups Matt Shoemaker and J.A. Happ didn’t pan out. Maeda and Michael Pineda both dealt with injuries. José Berríos was great but was shipped off to the Blue Jays at the deadline. That leaves Minnesota relying on an unproven starting staff for the stretch run with plenty of opportunity for the younger arms to earn a spot in next year’s season-opening rotation.

Only Bailey Ober appears to have locked down one of those spots thanks to a strong rookie year. Prospect Joe Ryan — acquired from the Rays in the Nelson Cruz trade — is making his big league debut tonight. Griffin Jax and Randy Dobnak have generally disappointed this season, and the Twins are also giving looks to soft-tossing journeyman Andrew Albers and reliever-turned-starter John Gant. Pineda, who is currently on the injured list, will be a free agent at season’s end. Prospect Jordan Balazovic might get his first MLB call at some point over the next couple weeks.

Rebuilding that rotation will be the top priority for the Twins’ front office this winter. Minnesota will have plenty of payroll space over the offseason but virtually no certainty in the starting staff. They figure to be very active players in a free agent market that’ll features Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodón at the top of the class and also includes notables like Anthony DeSclafani, Zack Greinke, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, and Alex Wood. With much of a quality position player group still in place, the rotation was likely the big-ticket issue for the Twins even before Maeda’s injury.

Missing a substantial chunk of time will come at a pretty significant financial cost for Maeda. The 33-year-old’s contract is heavily incentive-laden due to concerns the Dodgers’ front office had about the results of his physical. Maeda is guaranteed just $3MM annually (with additional $150K roster bonuses each season) through 2023. He unlocks a $1MM bonus for reaching his fifteenth and twentieth starts of each season, with additional incentives available based on starts.

Maeda also picks up $250K for reaching ninety innings each year, with additional $250K increments locked in for each ten innings accrued thereafter — maxing out at 200 frames. Until a more definite timetable is revealed, it’s impossible to know precisely how much Maeda will lose because of the surgery. It at least seems as if he’ll miss out on the majority of his earning upside in 2022 as a result of today’s operation.

Kenta Maeda To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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Kenta Maeda will undergo elbow surgery next week, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). It won’t be known exactly what procedure Maeda will require until he goes under the knife, but it’s possible he’ll need a full Tommy John surgery.

Obviously, Maeda’s timetable will depend on the kind of procedure he ultimately undergoes.  If Maeda does require a complete reconstruction, that would probably rule him out for the entirety of the 2022 season, since Tommy John surgeries typically require rehab timelines of fourteen-plus months. Even a surgery of lesser severity could threaten his readiness for the start of next season.

For instance, Astros left-hander Kent Emanuel had an undetermined amount of ligament damage in his elbow at the time he underwent surgery in June. As with Maeda, it wasn’t clear at the time whether Emanuel would need a full reconstruction. During the operation, it was determined that he didn’t need to undergo TJS, but the procedure he did undergo still came with a nine-month recovery timeline. That’s just one example, and it’s not a given that Maeda is facing the same options Emanuel was. But it’s illustrative that even avoiding Tommy John surgery in these situations could still require a significant recovery period.

The Twins are playing out the string for the rest of 2021, so the effects of losing Maeda for the remainder of this season are relatively minimal. His absence potentially extending into 2022 would be devastating for a Minnesota team hoping to return to contention next season. With José Berríos traded to the Blue Jays before this summer’s deadline, Maeda is by far the most accomplished member of Minnesota’s starting staff.

Michael Pineda is slated to hit free agency this offseason, leaving Bailey Ober, Charlie Barnes, Griffin Jax, Lewis Thorpe and Randy Dobnak as the other starters controllable into 2022. That’s an unproven group insufficient for a hopeful contender. Prospects like Jordan Balazovic or Joe Ryan could pitch their way into the mix at some point soon, but starting pitching already looked to be the biggest area of need for Minnesota this winter. Even if Maeda doesn’t require Tommy John surgery, the front office will have to proceed through the offseason without the comfort of seeing their top in-house pitcher having logged any game action after an elbow procedure of some note.

It’s a disappointing end to the toughest season of Maeda’s six-year big league career. The right-hander consistently posted above-average numbers between 2016-19 with the Dodgers. Minnesota acquired him over the 2019-20 offseason and he had a career-best campaign in last year’s shortened season. Maeda worked to a 2.70 ERA over 66 2/3 innings, earning a runner-up finish in AL Cy Young award balloting.

Maeda couldn’t replicate that success this season, as that ERA ballooned to a career-worst 4.66 over 106 1/3 frames. The 33-year-old has seen significant declines in strikeout and ground-ball rates relative to last season, which looks like a bit of an outlier. But Maeda’s strikeout and walk numbers are still solid, and his 3.97 SIERA suggests he’s at least still a quality arm as he was for his couple seasons in Los Angeles.

If Maeda is forced to miss significant time in 2022, that’d come with serious financial consequences. His original eight-year deal with the Dodgers was heavily incentive-laden because of the L.A. front office’s concern about his medical outlook. Maeda is guaranteed just $3.125MM annually, with millions of dollars in bonuses available via games started and innings thresholds.

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