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Kenta Maeda

Twins To Sign Joe Smith, Place Kenta Maeda On 60-Day IL

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12:55pm: It’s a one-year deal worth $2.5MM, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. To make room on the roster, Kenta Maeda has been placed on the 60-day IL. The news on Maeda is merely a formality, as he had Tommy John surgery last year and will miss most of the season, hoping for a September return.

10:58am: Right-hander Joe Smith is signing with the Twins, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

This is something of an early birthday present for Smith, as he will turn 38 years old on Tuesday. A veteran of 14 MLB seasons at this point in his career, the sidearmer has played for the Mets, Indians, Angels, Cubs, Blue Jays, Astros and Mariners. In that time, he’s appeared in 832 big league games, with a 3.09 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 54.1% ground ball rate.

The last time Smith was a free agent, he signed a two-year deal with the Astros prior to the 2020 season. The righty ended up opting out of that pandemic-shortened campaign due to family health concerns, the first season he missed since 2006. He returned last year and showed a bit of rust, putting up an ERA of 4.99 over 39 2/3 innings. His previous career high was 3.83, set way back in 2010. However, he clearly improved as the season went on, as can be seen when comparing his time before and after a trade from Houston to Seattle. Prior to the deal, he had an ERA of 7.48, with a measly 16.5% strikeout rate, though his 3.9% walk rate was excellent. As a Mariner, his ERA was an even 2.00 and his strikeout rate jumped to 24.3%, with his walk rate nudging up only slightly to 5.7%. Those are small samples, but the brief stint with the Astros in the first months of last year seems to be the outlier here, as the rest of Smith’s ledger is very strong. Also, Smith’s batting average on balls in play was .413 before the deal and .229 after. Given his career BABIP of .276, it seems possible to attribute his first-half numbers to poor fortune.

For the Twins, they have been extremely busy in the post-lockout period, totally remaking their lineup, subtracting Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver but adding Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela and Carlos Correa. The main focus now will be on whether they can bolster their pitching staff enough to help that lineup compete this year. Adding Sonny Gray to the rotation surely helped, and now Smith will strengthen the relief corps. It’s a relatively inexperienced group, with Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey being the only other projected members of the bullpen with more than four years of MLB service time, making Smith a logical addition for his veteran presence.

Kenta Maeda Aiming For September Return From Tommy John Surgery

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It’s been nearly five months since Twins righty Kenta Maeda underwent Tommy John surgery, and while a September Tommy John procedure often wipes out the following season for a pitcher, Maeda recently told reporters in Japan that he’s aiming for a return this September (link via The Manichi). At present, his recovery appears to be on track, as Maeda revealed he’ll begin playing catch sometime in mid-February.

Maeda, 33, struggled through groin and elbow injuries last season before ultimately going under the knife on Sept. 1. He had an internal brace put into his elbow, which manager Rocco Baldelli said at the time of the surgery could help to expedite the righty’s recovery. There’s obviously a long way to go before it’s clear whether a 2022 return is an actual possibility, but Maeda says it’s “not a zero percent chance” that he can return late in the year.

Acquired in a 2019-20 offseason trade that sent Brusdar Graterol to the Dodgers, Maeda was nothing short of brilliant in his first season with Minnesota. The 2020 campaign, of course, was shortened to a 60-game slate, but Maeda made 11 starts and finished second in American League Cy Young voting. That season saw him pitch to a 2.70 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (32.3%), walk percentage (4.0%), ground-ball rate (49.0%), swinging-strike rate (17.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (40.8%).

This past season was another story entirely. Maeda made 21 starts but tallied just 106 1/3 innings with solid but diminished strikeout and walk rates (24.9% and 7.1%, respectively). His fastball velocity dipped by about a mile per hour, and the elite hard-contact suppression he showed in 2020 trended back toward league-average levels. Along the way, Maeda had multiple IL stints and was the subject of some trade-deadline chatter before finally requiring surgery.

Even though Maeda wasn’t at his best in that injury-plagued 2021 campaign, his absence will nevertheless be felt by a Twins team that still has a dire need for starting pitching. It’s doubtful that Maeda’s surgery would’ve altered the decision to trade Jose Berrios to Toronto in return for a pair of highly touted prospects, but the Twins surely thought they’d have Maeda leading their 2022 staff at the time that deal was made.

Instead, Minnesota entered the offseason knowing that Maeda and Berrios were out of the picture — and also recognizing the possibility of free agent Michael Pineda signing elsewhere. Despite the glaring nature of that rotation deficiency, they’ve yet to really address the matter. Minnesota took a $5MM flier on right-hander Dylan Bundy, hoping they’ll be able to get something closer to the former Orioles/Angels hurler’s 2020 results than his 2021 output, but that’s the lone move the team has made to deepen the staff.

Bundy will join a rotation that should include towering right-hander Bailey Ober, who quietly posted a solid rookie season with a downtrodden Twins club in 2021. Rookie Joe Ryan, an Olympian with Team USA and the centerpiece of the trade that sent Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay, had a strong September debut with the Twins and looks all but assured a spot as well. Baseball America rated him among the game’s Top 100 prospects just last week.

That said, the Twins sat out the free-agent market for virtually all of the top names — barring Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw, who remain unsigned — and will now likely turn to the trade market and/or add another veteran from the lower tiers of the market. (There was some mutual interest in a Pineda reunion late in the season.) Getting Maeda back into the fold in September would be a boon, but for a team whose owner plainly stated the club would not rebuild after a disappointing 2021 season, the lack of activity to date has been rather surprising.

Every Team’s Initial September Callups

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The limit on active roster players expanded from 26 to 28 today, as the calendar flipped to September. Every team announced at least two additions to the big league club (some teams made three or more due to injured list placements). Here’s a recap of today’s spate of transactions:

Kenta Maeda Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Twins ace Kenta Maeda underwent Tommy John surgery today, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press and Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). The operation involved the placement of an internal brace in Maeda’s elbow that apparently has a chance to expedite the recovery timeline. While Tommy John rehabilitation typically takes around fourteen months, Baldelli suggested Maeda could return in between nine and twelve months time. A more definitive timetable will be apparent a few months from now.

It’s not a particularly surprising development, as Baldelli acknowledged that a Tommy John procedure was a possibility when he announced that Maeda would be going under the knife last week. Nevertheless, it’s unquestionably disappointing for a Minnesota team that — even in a best-case scenario — will have to navigate at least half the season without their top pitcher.

Even if everything progresses well, it seems unlikely Maeda will be able to return before next season’s All-Star Break. A nine-month shutdown would keep the right-hander from throwing until early June. He’ll need at least a few weeks to build up arm strength once he’s cleared to begin throwing and will have to embark upon a lengthy minor league rehab assignment.

Losing Maeda makes the Twins’ attempt to compete in 2022 all the more difficult. While Minnesota was widely expected to contend for the American League Central entering this season, the team started dreadfully and played their way out of the playoff picture almost immediately. They enter play tonight 58-74, placing them at the bottom of the division with a -100 run differential.

The rotation has been perhaps the biggest reason for that massive underperformance. Offseason pickups Matt Shoemaker and J.A. Happ didn’t pan out. Maeda and Michael Pineda both dealt with injuries. José Berríos was great but was shipped off to the Blue Jays at the deadline. That leaves Minnesota relying on an unproven starting staff for the stretch run with plenty of opportunity for the younger arms to earn a spot in next year’s season-opening rotation.

Only Bailey Ober appears to have locked down one of those spots thanks to a strong rookie year. Prospect Joe Ryan — acquired from the Rays in the Nelson Cruz trade — is making his big league debut tonight. Griffin Jax and Randy Dobnak have generally disappointed this season, and the Twins are also giving looks to soft-tossing journeyman Andrew Albers and reliever-turned-starter John Gant. Pineda, who is currently on the injured list, will be a free agent at season’s end. Prospect Jordan Balazovic might get his first MLB call at some point over the next couple weeks.

Rebuilding that rotation will be the top priority for the Twins’ front office this winter. Minnesota will have plenty of payroll space over the offseason but virtually no certainty in the starting staff. They figure to be very active players in a free agent market that’ll features Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray and Carlos Rodón at the top of the class and also includes notables like Anthony DeSclafani, Zack Greinke, Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, and Alex Wood. With much of a quality position player group still in place, the rotation was likely the big-ticket issue for the Twins even before Maeda’s injury.

Missing a substantial chunk of time will come at a pretty significant financial cost for Maeda. The 33-year-old’s contract is heavily incentive-laden due to concerns the Dodgers’ front office had about the results of his physical. Maeda is guaranteed just $3MM annually (with additional $150K roster bonuses each season) through 2023. He unlocks a $1MM bonus for reaching his fifteenth and twentieth starts of each season, with additional incentives available based on starts.

Maeda also picks up $250K for reaching ninety innings each year, with additional $250K increments locked in for each ten innings accrued thereafter — maxing out at 200 frames. Until a more definite timetable is revealed, it’s impossible to know precisely how much Maeda will lose because of the surgery. It at least seems as if he’ll miss out on the majority of his earning upside in 2022 as a result of today’s operation.

Kenta Maeda To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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Kenta Maeda will undergo elbow surgery next week, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). It won’t be known exactly what procedure Maeda will require until he goes under the knife, but it’s possible he’ll need a full Tommy John surgery.

Obviously, Maeda’s timetable will depend on the kind of procedure he ultimately undergoes.  If Maeda does require a complete reconstruction, that would probably rule him out for the entirety of the 2022 season, since Tommy John surgeries typically require rehab timelines of fourteen-plus months. Even a surgery of lesser severity could threaten his readiness for the start of next season.

For instance, Astros left-hander Kent Emanuel had an undetermined amount of ligament damage in his elbow at the time he underwent surgery in June. As with Maeda, it wasn’t clear at the time whether Emanuel would need a full reconstruction. During the operation, it was determined that he didn’t need to undergo TJS, but the procedure he did undergo still came with a nine-month recovery timeline. That’s just one example, and it’s not a given that Maeda is facing the same options Emanuel was. But it’s illustrative that even avoiding Tommy John surgery in these situations could still require a significant recovery period.

The Twins are playing out the string for the rest of 2021, so the effects of losing Maeda for the remainder of this season are relatively minimal. His absence potentially extending into 2022 would be devastating for a Minnesota team hoping to return to contention next season. With José Berríos traded to the Blue Jays before this summer’s deadline, Maeda is by far the most accomplished member of Minnesota’s starting staff.

Michael Pineda is slated to hit free agency this offseason, leaving Bailey Ober, Charlie Barnes, Griffin Jax, Lewis Thorpe and Randy Dobnak as the other starters controllable into 2022. That’s an unproven group insufficient for a hopeful contender. Prospects like Jordan Balazovic or Joe Ryan could pitch their way into the mix at some point soon, but starting pitching already looked to be the biggest area of need for Minnesota this winter. Even if Maeda doesn’t require Tommy John surgery, the front office will have to proceed through the offseason without the comfort of seeing their top in-house pitcher having logged any game action after an elbow procedure of some note.

It’s a disappointing end to the toughest season of Maeda’s six-year big league career. The right-hander consistently posted above-average numbers between 2016-19 with the Dodgers. Minnesota acquired him over the 2019-20 offseason and he had a career-best campaign in last year’s shortened season. Maeda worked to a 2.70 ERA over 66 2/3 innings, earning a runner-up finish in AL Cy Young award balloting.

Maeda couldn’t replicate that success this season, as that ERA ballooned to a career-worst 4.66 over 106 1/3 frames. The 33-year-old has seen significant declines in strikeout and ground-ball rates relative to last season, which looks like a bit of an outlier. But Maeda’s strikeout and walk numbers are still solid, and his 3.97 SIERA suggests he’s at least still a quality arm as he was for his couple seasons in Los Angeles.

If Maeda is forced to miss significant time in 2022, that’d come with serious financial consequences. His original eight-year deal with the Dodgers was heavily incentive-laden because of the L.A. front office’s concern about his medical outlook. Maeda is guaranteed just $3.125MM annually, with millions of dollars in bonuses available via games started and innings thresholds.

Twins Place Kenta Maeda On 10-Day Injured List

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Aug. 26: Maeda saw an orthopedic surgeon in Dallas, but there is not a definite plan for the treatment moving forward, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (via Twitter). There are multiple surgical options on the table, as well as the possibility for a rehab approach.

Aug. 24: Maeda is receiving multiple opinions on the injury, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He adds that there’s “some concern” regarding possible damage to the right-hander’s ulnar collateral ligament as well.

Aug. 23: As expected, the Twins placed Maeda on the 10-day injured list due to right forearm tightness.  The placement is retroactive to August 22.  Miguel Sano was reinstated from the paternity list and will take Maeda’s spot on the active roster.

Aug. 21: Twins right-hander Kenta Maeda left today’s start due to right forearm tightness.  Maeda allowed one run in his first four innings against the Yankees but then ran into trouble in the fifth, retiring only one batter and then allowing the next four New York hitters to reach base.  Maeda had thrown nine consecutive balls before finally leaving the game.

Minnesota manager Rocco Baldelli told Phil Miller of The Minneapolis Star Tribune (Twitter links) and other reporters that Maeda will undergo an MRI to determine the extent of the injury.  It seems like a trip to the injured list will be in order, as Baldelli said “I don’t see very many scenarios right now where it’s not going to take some time to get Kenta back where he needs to be.”

Given the date, it certainly seems like Maeda’s season could be in jeopardy, to say nothing of a longer-term absence should his forearm injury prove to be serious.  Maeda has made four visits to the IL during his six Major League seasons, though none of those stints were particularly long, and none involved an arm injury.  Though Maeda’s contract (initially signed prior to the 2016 season) was rather notably incentive-heavy due to the Dodgers’ concerns about his physical, the righty has been mostly durable as he has pitched into his age-33 season.

Over 106 1/3 innings in 2021, Maeda has a 4.66 ERA, easily his highest as a Major Leaguer.  That ERA is partially due to bad luck, as Maeda’s Statcast numbers are solid and he has above-average strikeout and walk rates.  “Above average,” however, still represents a marked step backwards from Maeda’s elite 2020 performance, as the Twins righty finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting.

While the Twins are already looking ahead to 2022, losing Maeda for at least a while will only further deplete the team’s pitching depth.  Minnesota has been deploying three rookies (Bailey Ober, Griffin Jax, and Charlie Barnes) in the rotation due to injuries and Jose Berrios leaving town at the trade deadline, with the newly-acquired John Gant also getting starts.

Twins Listening On Maeda, Buxton, Donaldson

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1:45PM: The Twins are also listening to offers on righty Kenta Maeda, tweets Heyman. He’s signed through 2023 with an annual base salary of just $3MM, although he can earn an additional $10MM of incentives based on starts and innings pitched each season.

1:36PM: Both Buxton and Josh Donaldson are being shopped by the Twins, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. Donaldson is in the second season of a four-year, $92MM contract with Minnesota.

12:56PM: The Twins have already traded Nelson Cruz and Jose Berrios, and they’re surely not done for the day, with several other players to shop to contending clubs. Center fielder Byron Buxton’s market has picked up steam since last night, tweets Dan Hayes of The Athletic, although it’s no sure thing he’ll be moved just yet. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Phillies “love” Buxton and are one six or seven teams inquiring with the Twins.

Buxton, 27, is currently on the 10-day injured list with a fractured hand that he sustained when he was hit by a pitch earlier in the summer. He’d only just come off the injured list after missing more than a month due to a strained hip flexor.

The Twins and Buxton have had extension talks as recently as this month, but those negotiations didn’t bring about a contract. Minnesota was reportedly willing to offer upwards of $80MM and include some incentives to boost the contract’s overall value. It’s not the first time the Twins and Buxton have talked extension, but nothing has come of those efforts just yet and Buxton now finds himself 15 months from reaching free agency at the conclusion of the 2022 season. He’s said even after those extension talks broke down that he hopes to remain in Minnesota long-term and is very much open to future talks.

Buxton is one of the toughest players in the game to value either in a trade or on an extension. He’s arguably the best defensive player in all of baseball, at any position, and is among the sport’s five or so fastest players as well. While the former No. 2 overall pick struggled at the plate in his first several seasons, he’s batted .282/.322/.581 with 33 homers, 44 doubles and four triples in his past 540 plate appearances — a star-level offensive output.

Of course, the problem is that those 540 plate appearances have been spread across three seasons. Buxton has been on the Major League injured list a whopping 11 times, and while some have come as the result of freak injuries — the current broken hand, a foot fracture suffered on a foul tip — the lack of durability is an obvious concern both for the Twins and for potential trade partners.

Buxton is nearing a return from the injured list, and his play so far in limited at-bats in 2021 would be MVP-caliber over the course of a full season. He’s batted .369/.409/.767 with 10 homers and 11 doubles in just 110 plate appearances. The Twins figure to set a high asking price, as they did on both Cruz and Berrios. Whether another club will part with impact young talent and take on the health risks associated with Buxton remains to be seen.

Kyle Gibson Rumors: Deadline Day

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Rangers right-hander Kyle Gibson is enjoying a career year, reaching his first All-Star Game and posting a 2.87 ERA and 50.8% grounder rate over 113 innings.  There are some red flags (a 4.46 SIERA and a below-average 20.4% strikeout rate), but for a veteran arm controlled through 2022 on an $8MM salary, Gibson has been drawing a lot of attention.  Here is the latest on Gibson as the deadline approaches…

Latest Updates

Earlier Today

  • The Rays may be the leaders to acquire Gibson, The Athletic’s Levi Weaver tweets.  Tampa Bay was initially linked to Gibson a few days ago, as the team has continued to overhaul its starting and relief pitching mix.
  • The Phillies are a new team in the Gibson sweepstakes, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that Philadelphia is “making a hard push” for Gibson’s services.  The Phils are known to be looking for help at the back end of their rotation, behind their top trio of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and the currently-injured Zach Eflin.
  • The Padres were also rumored to have interest in Gibson earlier this week, and they have “maintained” that interest heading into this afternoon, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin.  Twins right-hander Kenta Maeda is another name on San Diego’s radar, but the “price tag has been too high for the Padres’ liking,” which could indicate that the club is perhaps now turning more towards Gibson or other rotation options.

Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox Reportedly Most Active Teams In Jose Berrios Market

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5:44 pm: The Rays, Blue Jays and Red Sox are the most active teams in the Berrios market, reports Heyman, who adds that the division’s other contender, the Yankees, have also checked in. It doesn’t seem likely that the Mets — who have long been interested in Berrios but deterred by the Twins’ asking price — will wind up landing him. The Mets continue to be put off by Minnesota’s demand, hears Andy Martino of SNY, and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com suggests that’s also the case in discussions between the two clubs regarding Pineda.

2:39pm: The Twins have numerous offers in hand for Berrios, per Ken Rosenthal and Dan Hayes of The Athletic, who add that the market has exceeded the Twins’ initial expectations (Twitter link). A trade is seen as increasingly likely. TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that the Blue Jays are “definitely” in the mix for Berrios.

2:34pm: The Twins are getting “bombarded” with offers for Berrios, Nightengale tweets, adding that the Padres in particular are being aggressive in their efforts.

1:58pm: Some teams who’ve spoken to the Twins about Berrios get the sense that they’re more willing to move him now than they were earlier in the summer, tweets MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman lists the Dodgers as a team with interest, and, like myriad other recent reports, also indicates the Padres have interest. Dan Hayes of The Athletic recently wrote that the Padres had interest in Berrios, Michael Pineda and Kenta Maeda. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that San Diego is more focused on Berrios than on Max Scherzer.

8:11am: The Twins have already traded away Nelson Cruz, and with an off-day Thursday, today’s focus figures to be entirely on their deadline efforts to reload the club for 2022 and beyond. Jose Berrios is Minnesota’s most coveted trade candidate, and Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that offers for Berrios “have spiked” with the trade deadline now less than 48 hours away.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Mariners have been pursuing a Berrios acquisition this week, with the Twins focusing on one of Seattle’s top pitching prospects (Emerson Hancock or George Kirby) as part of a multi-player return. The two sides aren’t close to a deal, Morosi adds. Both Hancock (2020) and Kirby (2019) were first-round picks in recent Mariners drafts and have pitched at Class-A Advanced this year. Both players have missed time with shoulder fatigue this year, but Hancock returned this week and Kirby is expected back within the next couple of weeks, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweeted a couple days ago.

The Mets, too, have been linked to Berrios throughout the month of July, but all indications to this point have been that they consider the asking price too steep. Indeed, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Mets are “very” interested but also had “sticker shock” when the Twins initially asked for a combination of two top-100 prospects and a young big leaguer. Beyond that, the Mets’ lack of premium pitching prospects may be a problem. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the Mets would perhaps need to involve a third team if they hoped to actually land Berrios. They’ve recently been more connected to rental pitchers.

Of course, virtually every contender or pseudo-contender has checked in with the Twins on Berrios’ asking price, given his affordable $6.1MM salary for the 2021 season as well as his remaining year of arbitration eligibility before free agency. The 27-year-old Berrios is enjoying the best season of an already impressive career, having pitched to a 3.48 ERA with career-best marks in strikeout percentage (25.7) and ground-ball percentage (43.6). His 6.5 percent walk rate is the second-lowest of his career, and the durable right-hander’s current pace would put him in line to land somewhere in the 195 to 200 range in terms of total innings pitched.

Latest On Padres’ Trade Targets

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Locked in a tight NL West race, the Padres are known to be looking for starting pitching and lineup help at the deadline.  This leaves a wide range of possibilities open for an aggressive general manager like A.J. Preller, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that Preller’s front office has “has talked with other teams about scenarios ranging from the seemingly obvious to the implausible.”

That gamut might be reflected in two hitters Acee links to the Padres, as he reiterates that the club continues to be interested in Joey Gallo, long mentioned as a target for San Diego.  Beyond Gallo, however, Acee also notes that the Padres were one of the NL teams who had an interest in Nelson Cruz, before Minnesota sent the veteran slugger to the Rays in a trade earlier tonight.  It would’ve been bold to put Cruz (a DH-only player for the last three seasons) back in line for regular outfield duty, which might be why the Twins ultimately found the most interested suitor in an AL team that could deploy Cruz in his normal DH spot.

On the pitching front, the Padres are looking for multiple arms to aid a rotation that had been hit with injuries.  Acee writes that the targets are “both a potential innings eater and a starter who could be a viable option to start early in a playoff series.”  The Padres’ talks with the Rangers and Twins also involved such names as Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, and Kenta Maeda.  San Diego has also had interest in Rockies right-hander Jon Gray and Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, though it is unclear if Duffy is still a consideration after he was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week.

Gray, Duffy, and Lyles are all pure rentals, as free agents after the season.  Duffy and Gray have pretty comparable overall metrics, and while Duffy’s 2.51 ERA is significantly better than Gray’s 3.68 ERA, Gray has 93 innings pitched to Duffy’s 61, as Duffy is in the midst of his second IL stint of the season.  Duffy also has full no-trade protection but the California native might be open to agreeing to be dealt back to his home state.  Gray has no such trade protection, though the Rockies’ willingness to move a notable player to a division rival could be a potential obstacle.

The biggest issue with acquiring Lyles is likely that the 30-year-old simply hasn’t pitched well over his two years in Texas, posting a 5.84 ERA in 165 innings since the start of the 2020 season.  A change of scenery could help Lyles regain the effectiveness he displayed in 2018-19, and Lyles is a familiar face for Preller, as the righty pitched for San Diego during the 2017 and 2018 campaigns.

A trade could also help Maeda escape the doldrums of a tough 2021 season, though the right-hander far from struggled in his first year in Minnesota, finishing second in 2020 AL Cy Young Award voting.  Maeda missed a little over three weeks with a groin injury this year, and has pitched better over his last three starts, with a 1.69 ERA over his last 16 innings.

Maeda is no stranger to the NL West after spending his first four MLB seasons with the Dodgers, and he also has the most contractual control of any of the five pitchers known to be on San Diego’s radar.  Maeda is owed only $3MM in guaranteed money in each of the 2022 and 2023 season, but several millions more are available in incentives based on innings pitched and games started.  The overall price tag is still quite reasonable, and as much as Maeda hasn’t been a front-of-the-rotation type in 2021, his contract and his past track record make him a good trade chip.  Of course, this assumes that Minnesota would be open to a trade for anything more than a very generous offer, as the Twins are reportedly not very interested in dealing anything beyond rental players.

Gibson is also controlled beyond 2021, as he still has a full year remaining (worth $7MM) on the three-year, $28MM free agent deal he inked with the Rangers in the 2019-20 offseason.  With a 2.86 ERA over his first 107 innings, Gibson is on pace for a career year, and he already was named an All-Star for the first time in his nine MLB seasons.  Gibson doesn’t miss many bats, however, and both his Statcast profile and overall career numbers don’t much help the argument that he can keep up this borderline ace production over the course of a full season, or into 2022.

What the Padres would be willing to give up for any of these players (or any deadline target) is still up in the air.  The club is close to the $210MM luxury tax threshold already but they reportedly have the ability to cross that threshold, so money might not be the most pressing issue for deadline acquisitions.  In regards to moving prospects, Acee hears that the Padres aren’t willing to move any of their top four minor leaguers — presumably MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis Campusano, or Robert Hassell — and might even look to add some more young talent in deals, though obviously the Padres wouldn’t be “deadline sellers” by any stretch of the imagination.

Speculatively, San Diego could look into some type of complex multi-player deal that would see them acquire a package that includes at least one notable MLB player that can help them win now, as well as a minor leaguer or two.  The inclusion of prospects could perhaps make it easier for the Padres to move one of their better minor leaguers as part of a trade.

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