6:10PM: Per a report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post, rival clubs have indicated that the White Sox are “pulling back” in negotiations regarding Cease. Heyman goes on to suggest that there’s a good chance Cease is still dealt at some point this offseason, and that Chicago is likely waiting to see which Yamamoto suitors miss out on the NPB ace before reengaging in discussions on their prized right-hander.
1:23PM: White Sox righty Dylan Cease has been one of the most oft-discussed names at this week’s Winter Meetings, but Chicago’s asking price on the right-hander remains quite high and — at least to this point — prohibitive. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the Sox asked the Reds for pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty in addition to two position-player prospects, for instance. Lowder was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft and currently ranks as baseball’s No. 45 prospect at Baseball America. Petty is the former first-rounder the Reds acquired from the Twins in their 2022 Sonny Gray trade.
Given the lofty ask, it’s not especially surprising that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic casts doubt on whether Cincinnati would actually meet Chicago’s demand in the end. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that the Reds have also inquired on Guardians righty Shane Bieber and Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, but they’re somewhat wary of the recent health issues for both. That’s not an issue with the durable Cease, who’s started more games than any pitcher in baseball over the past four seasons.
The Reds, of course, are far from the only team interested in acquiring Cease, who’s drawn interest from the Braves, Orioles and Cardinals (even after their trio of free agent signings), among others. The Dodgers were also linked to Cease last month, and Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports reports that even as L.A. has aggressively courted Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they’ve also been actively involved in Cease talks throughout the Winter Meetings.
Dorsey adds that the Sox have been eyeing pitching in return packages for Cease, but the Dodgers aren’t willing to include young right-hander Bobby Miller in a potential package for Cease. Los Angeles has plenty of other arms to dangle, but Miller posted a 3.76 ERA with impressive strikeout and walk rates in 124 1/3 innings for the Dodgers as a rookie this past season. Miller entered the 2023 season as one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, and between that prospect billing and his strong debut effort, it’s wholly unsurprising that the Dodgers aren’t inclined to move him in a deal for Cease (or, likely, for just about any potential trade target).
Both the Reds and Dodgers stand as natural trade partners for Cease. Cincinnati has plenty of young talent (e.g. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft) but is lacking in more established big leaguers beyond the recently signed Nick Martinez. The Dodgers, meanwhile, will have Walker Buehler on an innings limit in his first full season back from his second career Tommy John surgery. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and will miss at least half the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Dustin May (flexor surgery, Tommy John revision) and Tony Gonsolin (Tommy John surgery) are also expected to miss some or all of the ’24 campaign.
Cease, 27, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.8MM in 2024 and is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season. He finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander after notching 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball with a 30.4% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate. The 2023 season saw Cease’s ERA more than double to 4.58, but his strikeout rate (27.4%) remained strong and his 10.1% walk rate was right in line with the prior season. He lost about a mile per hour off his fastball and allowed more hard contact in previous seasons, with his home run rate and average on balls in play both increasing substantially.
Down year notwithstanding, Cease is among the most talented pitchers on the trade market and rival teams are surely intrigued by the idea of a change of scenery that gets him out of the White Sox’ homer-friendly stadium and away from their porous defense. As far as high-end arms on the trade market, he’s also one of very few available with multiple seasons of club control. Each of Bieber, Glasnow and perhaps Corbin Burnes is available for the right offer, but all three members of that trio will reach free agency following the 2024 campaign.
Everyone wants to win and you have to trade something to get something, but no reds fan should want this if that’s the price.
You have to think like the rays and guardians and trade away stars, not trade for them. It’s lame and sad but it’s the MLB reality. It’s why for me the integrity of baseball isn’t on the level of other sports, it’s not an even playing field.
The thing is, Cease isn’t a star. He’s a good, not great pitcher
Ima yuge supporter of reds talent evaluation, but you never know what u get w the first college arm off the board and history does not support lawders cause. Asa Lacey, Mize, lodolo, lieter all w equal pedigrees and lack luster results. So if u r going to make him the headliner- not a bad move as he has much more risk than Phillips, marte, arroyo, Sal stewart, petty
The team trading for Cease only gets him for two years. White Sox are asking too much. They’ll be better off if they wait for teams to get desperate.
Integrity of the game? What do you mean by that? In what way do the NFL & NBA have higher integrity than MLB? Are you referring to the actual meaning of the word integrity? Or are you talking about competitive balance and parity?
Probably referring to the lack of salary caps
Yeah have you seen the spec-crapular NFL season that’s going on?? Where’s there’s been only about half a dozen decent teams and everyone is else is very mediocre at best. (And the officials seem to be ruining every other game due to blown calls or excessive flags.) NFL is really hard to watch this year and MLB looks way better by comparison.
Cease was runner-up Cy Young Award winner in 2022. Sox had a terrible defense to support Cease last season.
Cease will bounce back in 2024 with a sub 3.00 ERA this season with a good team.
I want cease bad but not that bad. I wouldn’t give up any of our pitching prospects that are organizational top 10 to get a pitcher which both petty and lowder are both organizational top 10. We need pitching so why give up a pitching prospect.
I had hoped maybe India and arroyo would get it done or maybe Marte and arroyo. Mariners got 1.33 years of Castillo for Marte & arroyo and he is a little better caliber pitcher than cease. Cease is 2 years of control but arroyo and Marte are closer to mlb now.
I don’t like the glasnow trade being talked about either. Bieber I suppose is still an option. We really need 2 top of the rotation starters but probably only going to get one at this point with Martinez. Maybe a free agent of snell, Montgomery, ceases former teammate giolito or Eduardo RodrĂguez in that order of preference.
I would trade Lowder, a lesser pitching prospect and Cam Collier for Cease. There is a foundation of a trade there, if each team gives a little.
I would hope that Marte & Petty would get it done. I can’t believe the White Sox would turn that down. Marte is going to be a very good major leaguer.
Very low on Arroyo now. He had more value when he was traded for. He looks like a utility infielder to me.
I think Marte/Lowder aren’t too far apart on value. I don’t think I’d give Marte up if I were cincy though.
@BrianStrowmang, I’d set Petty and Lowder on their own is a big overpay for Cease.
Braves!
Pass!! The whitesoxs are asking way to much man.
It is okay. They will likely replenish the farm when they trade Fried during the deadline when they are under .500 as a consequence of not improving the rotation this off season.
@tradeacuna
That’s wild, even for you buddy.
Also, I don’t get the cease fascination, he wouldn’t even be in my top 3 choices.
They will be trading for Marco Gonzales in a last desperate attempt.
@yourdreamgm
OMG so hilarious
He would be my number one of the 3 trades that have been mentioned of cease, Bieber and glasnow. Free agents snell and gray would have been preferred but gray is off the board. I don’t want cease at that asking price though nor do I like what has been mentioned for glasnow. Looks like it’s Bieber or a free agent.
Absolutely NOT!! The Braves do not need to trade them AJ Smith-Shawver AND Hurston Waldrep, and that’s what the Sox will demand.
That is why talks with the Braves went nowhere to begin with, and I don’t blame them at all. Now, if they want Elder and Waldrep plus say an Owen Murphy and Dylan Dodd/Cade Kuehler then that’s fine, but there’s a fine line between an overpay and fair value.
Also, can’t say I blame the Dodgers. Why would they trade a younger, better, and cheaper version of Cease that they will control longer for Cease!?!
If the White Sox want to get rid of Cease, which they do, they need to get realistic.
Trading waldrup is just as dumb as trading Shawver. You’re going to trade two potential STUDS for two years of cease? I wouldn’t trade either of those two. Package Owen Murphy other then that absolutely no one Shawver or waldrup. I’d understand if Sox say no. Not worth it for Braves
I would rather have Burnes or Glasnow.
White Sox should play hardball with the Dodgers and hold out for Bobby Miller. Maybe the Dodgers get a little desperate. I would be ok with Miller, Kopech, Soroka and Fedde in the rotation.
Rebuilding White Sox still have a shot in the AL Central. Royals are building. Minnesota can’t afford to keep anybody. Cleveland fire sale will begin soon. Detroit??? Not worried.
They can keep Ceasae, continue to be awful and watch his value get lower and lower.
No chance Dodgers trade Miller let alone for Cease.
Dodgers have $ and prospects. Play hardball they will just move on to someone else.
This is correct. Plus Miller alone is more valuable than Cease. Watching him pitch against the Braves Miller looked like a future Ace, or potentially one of the best #2s and the future is now!!
He’s cheaper, they control him longer, and right now Miller is the better pitcher…
Plus, it’s like the article states no starter has pitched more than Cease the past few seasons. That is going to catch up to him sooner rather than later, if it hasn’t already.
He’s like a 75,000 mile car
Why would the dodgers subtract from their rotation to add to their rotation, subbing in someone worse and older for someone better and younger? Makes good sense, will definitely happen if they ask for it enough!
Besides a great strikeout rate, and I get his has good stuff, but outside of 2022, not sure Cease warrants the rumored high asking prices…
For a team like the Dodgers, if they asked for Bobby Miller, I’d much prefer his next two years over Cease’s.
There is a better than 50/50 chance that one or both of Pepiot and Sheehan have better seasons than Cease in 2024 on an inning by inning basis. They are somewhat innings limited, but if the White Sox are demanding one or both of those pitchers or Miller, I’d just pass.
The Reds should pass if that’s the asking price. He has a career ERA of almost 4.
And has been trending down in k and up in b.
He hasn’t been tending up in walks. He has actually been down, but it’s still too many. His Ks are down because he wasn’t even getting through the 4th without 90 pitches on nearly an every game basis. And that was during his phenomenal 2022.
As a Sox fan, I’d rather keep him and add around him, but reinadorf refuses to pay anyone, so all he sees is diminishing returns.
I honestly have had enough of him and how he runs this team. I almost hope the rumors of him meeting with Nashville’s mayor to discuss relocation are true. Reinsdorf ownership is a cancer in every sport they touch.
The White Sox are acting like Cease has 5 years of control with their asking price. Plus he is coming off a down year.
The Sox can ask for whatever they want from each team, but it doesn’t mean they will get it with only two years of control.
The WSox have the upper hand in this matter, regardless of whether you think they are being snobbish
It their demands aren’t met, he’ll stay until they are met
I was looking at the Reds last night because of the post that was about them and Cease. I think they can afford to give up what the White Sox need and that’s a lot of young pitching.
Williamson
Richardson
Phillips
For
Cease
The Redd still have a bunch of young pitchers their rotation would then be
Cease
Greene
Abbott
Ashcraft
Lodolo
Martinez
That’s a legit rotation.
Trade out Phillips for petty and I’d be cool w reds doing that trade
Phillips would be a top 20 prospect in all of baseball if he was in Yankees or dodgers system
Well where does Phillips fit in with all those other guys? That’s the thing the Reds have loads of major league ready guys. And the White Sox will need some for 2024.
I think he starts in louisville and earns a spot he never lets go once the season gets going. If he works out his command issues – he can be a top of rotation piece. He’s more valuable than lawder at this point imo.
Who does he replace? The Reds have a LOT of options. White Sox will want guys with 6 plus years of control.
I think the deal as stated in the article is a bit high for the Reds, but it’s close enough that something can be worked out.
Maybe reds leaked it to try to get value down some on additional pieces
The trick is to try to acquire players who you think you can use your coaching staff and analytics to coax more value than the going market rate. Sometimes that is successful and sometimes it isn’t. But certainly some teams have a better success rate at doing that than others. Paying top dollar full market value for middle career free agents seldom proves successful on its own even if the team is a big market deep pocketed powerhouse. Eventually even they have to pay the piper and adjust spending/retool or rebuild.
Seems to me the White Sox, Padres and Yankees’ GMs should all meet at the hotel bar and work out a 3-way trade between the clubs. Pads want pitching, so Cease ends up in SD; we know the Yanks want Soto; and in exchange, the Sox get Gleyber Torres because they need a 2b and it’ll help lower Yankees’ salary to acquire Soto. Obviously, other players (prospects) would also change teams in this deal. Get it done!
If they can’t work the 3-way out in the bar. Maybe continue talks up a room
I don’t think anyone finds Cashman THAT attractive…let alone his roster!
Getz is unhinged man. He is never going to trade Cease if he’s asking for a fantasyland prospect package like this.
He’s on the devils lettuce..
Still hoping the White Sox Cease and desist from trading Dylan. ⚾️
I’d say there’s a good chance at this point. Getz seems to have a problem saying yes to any proposals.
The Sox are going into a full blown rebuild. I know it’s painful because the Reds went through one two years ago. But Cease is going to be gone before the Sox next championship season. The players mentioned in the article would be a good get for Cease.
Highly unlikely, I see the Sox going into a soft rebuild. It seems Getz is looking more into 2025 or 2026 into competing.
Do they plan to run a 300m/yr payroll? Otherwise, how exactly do you see them improving that much, that quickly?
Well… Colson Montgomery and Bryan Ramos are doing well in charlotte. Assuming Cease is traded, farm system will probably go up to maybe 18-19 still not great but average. They still have Robert since there are no better options in CF than him. Grifol might go after 2024. Management killed their last rebuild, Getz could maybe get a good manager for once. Future isn’t dead but a small ray of light is there. Have low expectations for 2024, but in 2025 I have higher expectations.
The Sox need a Major League:
*2nd baseman
*right fielder
*veteran catcher
*left-handed starting pitcher
*left-handed relief pitcher
And trade talks involving Cease must fill two of those holes, plus prospects in two others. Good Luck, right?
If the White Sox trade Cease they’d also need another starting pitcher besides the southpaw you suggested.
Unless JR is becoming even more miserly than usual, I don’t see any reason why Getz can’t fill the needs you mentioned with mid-tier free agents and by trading some of the players he “doesn’t like on this team” such as defensively challenged Eloy Jimenez who should still possess decent value with his age, contract control and high ceiling hit and power tools. Cease certainly doesn’t fit the category of player that Getz refers to as “disliking”.
@Asaps
I’m wondering why you don’t want to deal Cease? Is it because you have hopes of competing in 2024? Or do you expect Cease to raise his value for a deadline deal?
A mix of both reasons.
The AL Central is far and away the worst division in MLB. If the White Sox were in any other division I would be more supportive of a Cease trade. Competing with the Twins, Guardians, Tigers and Royals isn’t a daunting task.
The price of mid-tier free agents to fill most of their holes shouldn’t be prohibitive to JR and the front office. There’s also a lot of talent in place if it could somehow manage to stay healthy and be properly motivated. Hopefully that happens with the new front office staff, coaches and players Getz has already managed to acquire thus far in his short tenure. Trades involving other players aside from Cease could also fill a hole or two, especially those that Getz “dislikes on his team” right now. Eloy Jimenez comes to mind.
Cease might also have more value at the summer trade deadline if the White Sox aren’t division contenders by then. He will have lost some value by losing a half season of control but could potentially make that up and more with a return to his 2022 production. Injury is always a concern, especially with a pitcher. Cease does have an outstanding track record of durability with an MLB best 97 GS the past 3 seasons. There is also the higher likelihood of contenders being even more desperate for an ace pitcher come August 1st than it is now.
I don’t think I would trade either prospect and definitely not both. I don’t project either of them to be aces but a uptick here or Petty change up improvement there they could be. What I really like about them is their floor. No such thing to rare to have a sure thing starter but they have really good odds. And if they had to be relievers they would be high leverage ones in late innings.
pretty reasonable ask for the reds. also obvious the reds would say no as this trade would leave them with 0 pitching in their farm system.
the bobby miller ask is ludicrous.
They can have petty and some change but not lowder plus petty plus prospects…
Neither Petty or Lowder should be involved in a Cease deal.. nope!
I mean we gotta give up something good, what would you propose?
Mediocre FA starters can still be had in the 15-18 mil/yr range. Pick your poison situation when demand exceeds supply on the trade market. Teams like Cincy and Balt would have to pay a boatload out of pocket for Boras clients Snell or Montgomery, but are they willing to outbid the deeper pocket clubs who lose out on Yamamoto?
They always ask for the moon at first. The question is whether Po Boy can actually negotiate or not.
So far, he has proved not.
in case anyone was concerned about how the baseball trade values simulator analyzes this, the ask was supposedly Lowder, Petty, and the #9 and #11 position prospects (so either Carlos Jorge and Sammy Stafura or Sal Stewart and Leo Balcazar depending on what list you’re looking at.) Here’s the value chart:
Cease (40.4)
Lowder (14.1)
Petty (13)
Jorge (13) or Stewart (7.1)
Stafura (8) or Balcazar (6.5)
The Jorge/Stafura package is rated a “minor overpay” while the Stewart/Balcazar one is rated “fair”
ya’ll gotta stop asking like they asked for Elly De La Cruz lol
I don’t know who made an offer first. I’m guessing other teams were inquiring about Cease. But the Sox can afford to wait. It’s all about supply and demand. And the demand will be much stronger as time goes by.
Orioles
Move on Reds, White Sox isn’t serious about trading Cease. This isn’t an opening ask. They have been talking for weeks.
Cease struggled last season but he still has value. I’m not sure if that’s true with the White Sox, though. With the right pitching coaches, he’ll rise again.
In most case trading the known for the known is never a bad thing. Especially pitchers for pitchers. And you never play the hind sight game. Tony LaRussa was great at trading away prospects for players entering their prime. With the amount of ball the kids play these days the fail risk of first round draft picks is less but that doesn’t mean they turn into all stars either.
Say what? Tony La Russa the HOF manager or the legendary CBO?
Btw: White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf is still affording failed manager hire pal Tony the luxury of “adding his 2 cents” to important front office decisions. I’m certain that it’s an added comfort for rookie GM Chris Getz to have Tony in the room…
I love how people on here act like the Reds prospects Getz is asking for are sure-bet HOFers. Prospects are simply prospects until they prove otherwise. The ChiSox prospects have proven that over the last several years. How many of those blue-chip prospects have floundered in Chicago? Way too many for ChiSox fans taste.
Is Getz asking too much? Probably, but he’d be stupid not to ask for a ton for Cease.
I don’t think it’s a bad offer actually. I would hate to see the Reds to give up Petty though
He should ask for a lot but then realize he’s taking a significant risk by holding past the off-season.
I think a deal gets done before spring training. White sox don’t have to be in a hurry right now though. They can let some FA starters come off the board and hope that a contender gets left out in the shuffle.
@idioms
I agree. Regardless of what some think the White Sox are not doing a full scale rebuild and don’t have to trade Cease. He’s an established talent and has proven his durability all while pitching with a shabby defense behind him along with many games held in a hitter friendly environment.
This isn’t the same situation as of 2016. Getz is looking into 2025/2026 for the next “window”.
Haha, good luck with that.
I only said this bc they are in a better position than in 2024.
Lowder would instantly become the #1 or 2 prospect in the White Sox’s system.
Petty would instantly become the #3 or 4 prospect in the White Sox’s system.
Plus two position player prospects from a dramatically better farm system than the White Sox have.
So, let’s reverse things and ask if a White Sox fan would trade:
Noah Schultz + Edgar Quero + Jake Eder + Bryan Ramos for Dylan Cease?
I’d view that as a colossal overpay.
Getz isn’t trading prospects.
Reds would be trading from a position of surplus. Yeah, those guys MAY be better ultimately, but they aren’t cracking the pro team next year.
@CluHaywood – So if you had $100 bill you weren’t using at the moment, you’d use it to just buy a Snickers Bar? Yo, keep the change!
Dylan Cease is not the only pitcher in all of baseball who might be good (and I don’t think he would be in Great American Ballpark).
There is no good reason to blow resources and overspend to get talent when you don’t need to.
@ Martras
Let’s be honest, the Reds aren’t signing anyone in their prime as a FA. Ken Griffey jr. Is the 4th highest paid player on the Reds in 2023. Because of this, it limits the Reds on who they will target. Cease is attractive for his ability, affordablity and team control. But the Reds will need to put up more than others to ensure they are the prime trading partner, especially with as much competition as there is for Cease. If they want a top of the rotation guy, not homegrown, with multiple years of affordable, team control entering his prime, they are gonna trade for him, and it’s going to cost quite a bit, and for the Reds, that price will increase as FA get signed, not decrease.
Boras just said Cease will be traded.
Don’t listen to him. Nothing is official until the trade happens.
For once, the SOX can be helped by Boras behind the scene to get Cease to the right team that will allow him the best chance to put up numbers & increase his value ahead of free agency. My guess is LAD would be Boras’ preferred choice given park, culture, national exposure, while ATL and AZ close in terms of culture, talent, etc.
Expect a trade after Ohtani, Yamamoto & Snell have signed. LAD likely losing out on Ohtani, making them favorites?
I forgot about BAL, an ideal landing spot with their young core & Rutschman behind the plate.
He’s probably right. Reinsdorf hates negotiating with Boras. Cease could win 20 games and K 300 batters, and the Sox could make the World Series, and Reinsdorf still wouldn’t pay him.
Probably seeing what others are willing to offer and capitalizing at end of off season
TRANSLATION: White Sox demands are sky high and no teams are biting.
Dodgers can’t get them all. They’ll sign Ohtani, trade for Glasnow, and White Sox will take less for Cease. Krall needs to be patient.
I agree, I could still see the reds getting him, hopefully not for an arm and a leg..
Apparently it’s two arms 🙂
Don’t believe ANYTHING Heyman says…. You’ll be better off for it.
Did anybody buy a ticket for a 2024 Sox game yet. I’d like to know that fools name.
Trading Cease now is a proving difficult because they’re trying to trade high when his value is low. They want to trade him like they’re the Guardians trading CC Sabathia circa 2008 and he is not that.
Getz thinks that Cease is a guy who won the Cy Young and also had a no hitter two seasons ago..Trouble is, he did not do either. However, I cannot begrudge him asking for the moon for him, its all part of the dance when it comes to trades. I mean I still think Getz gets out maneuvered hard in any trade he makes concerning Cease, or anyone else on the club. Hoping he will surprise me, I guess.
Just keep him
Update comment is odd in that most of those pursuing FA Yamamoto aren’t the clubs most interested or having the expendable depth of ideal prospects. The needle on talks for Cease would probably be after Boras gets Snell/Montgomery signed for a mint. That may take a while b/c he is effective at slow playing clubs against one another to build that outside fanbase pressure.
Burnes and Bieber also won’t be a light return even though just 1yr, b/c its FO’s are less likely to have the wool pulled over their eyes in taking an overhyped prospect. That is where you can sucker the WSox even if the return looks regrettable on paper.
I suspect Cease is viewed as a potential #2-3 arm in a good rotation. Somewhat on par with a Stroman trade from the Blue Jays to the Mets which brought back two top 10 organization prospects (neither one in the top 100), but with the Jays throwing in cash as well.
Cease probably gets 2 prospects in the 5-10 ranks from Cincinatti and not much more.
There is NO reason to have “likely” surrounded by two commas, you moron. In fact, it doesn’t even need one.