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MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss MLBTR’s first edition of the 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings, including these focal points…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images

Padres Have Received Interest From Around Nine Teams On Dylan Cease

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Around nine teams have been in contact with the Padres to express interest in Dylan Cease, writes Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman lists the Cubs, Mets and all five AL East teams among that group. The remaining two clubs are unknown, though The Athletic reported in January that the Twins had shown interest.

A pre-Opening Day trade still seems highly unlikely. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote earlier this week that the Padres were only willing to entertain trading their top starter if they received a significant offensive upgrade in the return package. They’d almost certainly want a controllable starting pitcher who could immediately replace Cease in the rotation as well. That’s a difficult asking price for another team to meet, especially without impactful hitters remaining in free agency to backfill the lineup.

Cease was traded midway through last year’s Spring Training. That was a different situation, as the White Sox were in full rebuild mode when they dealt him to the Padres. San Diego expects to compete for a playoff spot despite budget limitations that kept them from doing much of significance until they added Nick Pivetta on a backloaded four-year deal. Cease worked 189 1/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball during his first season in San Diego. He struck out 29.4% of opponents and fanned 224 hitters overall — his fourth consecutive season above the 200 mark.

The Padres and Cease agreed to a $13.75MM salary for his final arbitration season. He’d be a lock for a qualifying offer when he hits free agency next winter unless the Friars deal him midseason, which would make him ineligible to receive the QO. Cease will be heading into his age-30 season and could command a contract above $200MM. While the Padres don’t seem optimistic about their chances of re-signing him, they’d obviously take a major downgrade to this year’s rotation if they trade him.

Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported earlier this week that the Orioles and Cubs were monitoring the rotation market. Baltimore will begin the season without Grayson Rodriguez. Chicago’s rotation hasn’t taken any huge injury hits, though they’ll be without Javier Assad for a few weeks. They’re reportedly in talks with free agent Lance Lynn, who’d be a much less costly but far lower-upside addition at the back of the rotation.

The Mets (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea) and Yankees (Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil) have each lost multiple starters to injuries this spring. It has been particularly rough in the Bronx. Gil will likely miss the first half of the season with a lat strain. Cole will be out into the middle of 2026 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Nevertheless, respective baseball operations leaders David Stearns and Brian Cashman have indicated the New York teams are content with their internal options to weather those losses.

Boston already parted with two top prospects to add an impact starter in the Garrett Crochet deal. Toronto and Tampa Bay have rotations that arguably each run six deep. The Jays are likely to use Yariel Rodríguez in long relief. The Rays could consider trading one of their starters to settle on a five-man group. That could theoretically position Toronto or Tampa Bay to include a controllable starter in a Cease package, though there’s nothing to suggest the Padres are in anything more than due diligence mode with Opening Day two weeks off.

Latest On Dylan Cease, Michael King

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As is the case every year, Spring Training has brought a handful of significant pitching injuries. The Yankees have been hit the hardest. They confirmed this evening that they’re losing Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery — a week after Luis Gil went down for months with a lat strain. The Mets will open the season without Sean Manaea or Frankie Montas. The Mariners (George Kirby) and Orioles (Grayson Rodriguez) will each begin the year without a pitcher who would’ve been in the upper half of their respective rotations.

The injuries have reignited speculation about a Spring Training jolt to the trade market. A few fanbases are surely hoping their teams can line up with the Padres. San Diego entertained interest in impending free agents Dylan Cease and Michael King early in the offseason. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has shown a willingness to make significant trades at unconventional times on the calendar, including last spring’s deal to land Cease from the White Sox.

That still seems unlikely. Preller indicated at the start of camp that the team’s focus was on retaining its rotation. That hasn’t stopped teams from calling about the Padres’ top two starters. However, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes that King is “virtually assured” of sticking with San Diego into the regular season. The door seems just slightly more open on Cease. Acee reports that the Padres would only consider moving Cease if the return includes a significant upgrade in one or more of their weakest lineup positions: catcher, left field, and designated hitter.

Budgetary constraints limited the Padres’ free agent activity for most of the offseason. They moved late to add Nick Pivetta on an extremely backloaded four-year free agent deal. A few days later, they brought in Kyle Hart on a $1.5MM contract. They could round out the rotation behind Cease, King, and Yu Darvish. San Diego opted for low-cost acquisitions to fill out the lineup. Elias Díaz is back on a $3.5MM contract to catch. They added Jason Heyward and Connor Joe for a combined $2MM to work as the left field platoon. The Padres don’t have a set designated hitter.

Rotation depth is still a question. Hart is coming off a strong season in Korea, but he has 11 career MLB innings (which came five years ago). Injuries will force them to rely on the likes of Randy Vásquez, Stephen Kolek and Matt Waldron throughout the season. It’s hard to envision them trading Cease without netting at least one starting pitcher who’d jump directly into their rotation. Other teams are presumably reluctant to part with a controllable starter and a significant lineup upgrade. That’s especially true at a stage of the offseason when they wouldn’t have many options to backfill the lineup in free agency.

King and Cease could be the subject of more realistic trade rumors in a few months depending on the team’s place in the standings. They’d be highly sought after rental targets if the Padres underperform in the first half. San Diego will almost certainly make qualifying offers to both pitchers if they don’t deal them, but they’d land much stronger prospect returns in trade if they fall out of contention.

Red Sox Continue To Have “Due Diligence” Interest In Dylan Cease

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The Red Sox were first linked to Dylan Cease’s market back in early December, before Boston acquired Garrett Crochet from the White Sox and signed free agent Walker Buehler.  These moves brought some needed reinforcement to Boston’s rotation, but the team’s interest in Cease continues to at least linger, as MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports that the Sox “have been in touch with the” Padres about Cease’s availability.

A source indicated to McAdam that Boston’s interest is more of the “due diligence” variety, and could simply be due to the fact that Cease’s trade market might not be fully closed until San Diego actually moves the right-hander elsewhere.  There is also no guarantee that Cease will be dealt whatsoever, as reports from earlier this week suggested that the Padres were more apt to keep both Cease and Michael King (another pending free agent) to keep their own rotation strong.

Speculatively speaking, moving Cease to the Red Sox wouldn’t necessarily create a hole in the Padres’ rotation, just because it would seem likely that the Sox would send a starter-capable pitcher back in return.  The Red Sox already have enough pitchers on hand that a six-man rotation isn’t out of the question, so this volume alone would suggest that at least one of those hurlers would be dealt to the Padres in exchange for Cease.

Crochet, Buehler, Brayan Bello, and Tanner Houck wouldn’t be doing anywhere, and Lucas Giolito’s salary and recent injury history would likely keep him off the Padres’ radar.  Beyond those pitchers, any of Kutter Crawford, Quinn Priester, or Richard Fitts could work as part of a trade package, fitting in nearer the back of San Diego’s rotation behind the top three of King, Yu Darvish, and former Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta.

It would take more than just a single young starter to pry Cease away from the Padres, of course.  As McAdam notes, the Red Sox would have to factor how much they’d be willing to give up for a rental pitcher like Cease, particularly when the club has already significantly dipped into its farm system to swing the Crochet trade.  Crochet was a different situation altogether, as he is arbitration-controlled for two seasons and is making only $3.8MM in 2025, plus the left-hander has already expressed some interest in signing a contract extension.  Cease is making $13.75MM in his final year before free agency, and like most Boras Corporation clients, is more likely to test the open market than explore an extension to remain with the Padres, Red Sox, or whatever team Cease might be playing for by season’s end.

The shorter-term benefit of adding Cease is obvious for a Red Sox club that seems intent on returning to contention.  Cease could slide right in as Boston’s No. 1 starter, bumping everyone down a step and lengthening the team’s rotation.  Since Alex Bregman could opt out of his new contract as early as next winter, the Sox might be viewing 2025 with particular “win now” urgency, and acquiring Cease would certainly help in quickly getting Boston back into the playoff race.

Salary-wise, the Red Sox are projected (as per RosterResource) for an approximate $241.6MM luxury tax number this season, putting the team just a touch over the $241MM tax threshold.  Bringing Cease’s salary on board would put the Sox more firmly into tax territory, which is perhaps notable since the traditionally high-spending Red Sox have crossed the tax line just once in the last five years.  Again, Boston’s renewed focus on contending might not make a one-year tax hit a big deal in the eyes of ownership, especially since even without adding Cease, it stands to reason the Sox will look to make some kind of in-season add at the deadline if the club is indeed competing for a postseason spot.

Padres Reportedly Expected To Keep Dylan Cease, Michael King

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12:01pm: President of baseball operations A.J. Preller was asked about the Cease rumors today. “He’s a very big part of our club,” Preller said, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. “The additions the last couple days supplement what’s a really good rotation. That’s our focus here going forward — having that strong rotation.”

10:30am: Rumors have swirled all winter about the Padres trading a starting pitcher such as Dylan Cease or Michael King. Yesterday, they added to the rotation by agreeing to a deal with Nick Pivetta. They made another modest rotation add today by signing lefty Kyle Hart. It would be fair to wonder if those signings were precursors to a trade but Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club is “inclined” to keep their starters and open the season with a rotation of Cease, King, Pivetta and Yu Darvish. That report came out before the Hart signing, though it seems unlikely that such a modest deal would impact the club’s plans for a headline-grabbing deal.

It’s a perfectly logical stance from a roster perspective. The rotation depth has appeared thin all winter. Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery in October, putting a big hole in the starting group. Cease, King and Darvish gave the club a decent three but the depth options all had question marks. Matt Waldron showed some potential in the first half of last year but had an 8.10 ERA in the second half. Guys like Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito had some passable ERAs last year but with middling strikeout rates.

The only reason a trade of Cease or King was even considered was the club’s financial situation. They had spent aggressively for several years but then they hit a wall in 2023. Their TV deal collapsed, putting a dent in revenue. There were plans to scale back spending going into 2024, even before Peter Seidler died, which has led to an ongoing ownership squabble.

The financial squeeze led the Padres to trade Juan Soto and Trent Grisham last offseason for a five-player package. Losing Soto certainly wasn’t ideal but it saved some money and helped add some pitching depth. This winter, the thought was that a similar trade might be necessary, with names like Cease, King, Luis Arráez and Robert Suarez thrown around as possible candidates. None of those players are as talented or expensive as Soto but the theoretical plan would be similar, to trade one good but pricey impending free agent for several lesser but cheaper and controllable players to patch several roster holes.

Lin’s report now suggests that isn’t likely to come to fruition. He does leave the door open a little bit, suggesting the Friars could be bowled over by an offer from another club, but it seems holding this rotation core is the mostly likely outcome. Assuming the club doesn’t pivot to a trade, they will go into camp with a strong front four and with Hart jumping into a competition for a back-end role alongside Waldron, Vásquez and others. Stephen Kolek is also going to be stretched out to potentially give some extra depth.

Perhaps the club never got a trade offer that they found particularly compelling or perhaps they simply decided to creatively dance around the payroll situation. Trading a starter to improve rotation depth was always going to be a difficult task, so perhaps they thought it better to just address their holes on a budget. In left field, it seems that a platoon of Jason Heyward and Connor Joe is the move. They each got a $1MM guarantee plus bonuses, so the Friars only committed $2MM there.

Elias Díaz got a $3.5MM guarantee to join Luis Campusano behind the plate, but even that modest guarantee was backloaded. Díaz will get a $1.5MM guarantee and then a $2MM buyout on a $7MM mutual option. The buyout won’t be due until the end of the season, so it allows the Padres to avoid more than half of that guarantee in the short term.

The Pivetta deal is also significantly backloaded. Though he’s guaranteed $55MM on his four-year deal, he’ll only get $4MM this year, in the form of a $3MM signing bonus and $1MM salary. The remaining $51MM will be paid out with salaries of $19MM, $14MM and $18MM in the three following seasons, with Pivetta able to opt out after the second and third seasons. Even King’s $7.75MM salary to avoid arbitration helped the club in the short term. That money breaks down as a $3MM signing bonus, $1MM salary and then a $3.75MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option. Hart’s deal only guarantees him $1.5MM, with $500K of that being a club option buyout.

Because of those creative maneuvers and some other backloaded deals, the Friars have a big gap between their actual payroll and competitive balance tax number. The latter is calculated via the average annual value of contracts, so a guy like Pivetta will have a $13.75MM CBT hit this year, even though he’ll make far less than that in 2025.

RosterResource currently pegs the Friars for a $259MM CBT number but an actual payroll of just $207MM. That payroll is still a big spike from last year but perhaps it’s manageable enough that the club doesn’t have to pivot to trading Cease or King. The CBT number will lead to some taxes, but they will be modest.

The Padres reset their tax status by ducking under the line last year, meaning they would be “first-time” payors if they pay in 2025. That means their base tax rate is 20% on overages. With their current projection, that would lead to a tax bill of just $3.6MM. That’s also not calculated until the end of the season. If things go poorly during 2025, they could flip Cease, King or other players at the deadline, thus lowering their tax bill or ducking under the line completely.

They could also cut down this year’s payroll in the short term in other ways, with Lin suggesting a trade of Suarez is more likely than one involving Cease. Suarez is making $26MM over the next three years, broken down as $10MM this year and $8MM in the final two seasons of his deal. However, he can opt out of his contract after 2025, which will complicate trade talks.

It’s hard to agree on fair trade value when opt-outs are involved. For an acquiring team, they know they will only get one year of Suarez if he performs well. He would only stick around for 2026 and 2027 if he pitches poorly or is hurt. The limited upside and significant downside generally makes clubs unwilling to give up significant talent for such an arrangement.

For clubs still looking for a frontline starter like Cease, they don’t really have other options at this stage of the winter. The free agent market does still have some guys available, such as Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, Jakob Junis and others, but they are more mid-rotation or back-end options. Guys like Marcus Stroman and Jordan Montgomery are likely available in trade but they’re also mid-rotation guys at best and coming off difficult seasons.

Teams such as the Mets, Twins, Cubs and Orioles have been connected to Cease but they haven’t been able to get him thus far. Other clubs would be sensible fits. Unless they bowl over the Padres or the Friars are just posturing for leverage, those clubs might have to be patient. They could consider some of the aforementioned mid-rotation options or wait to see if the deadline offers the big rotation upgrade they seek.

Padres Inquired About Westburg, Mayo, Basallo In Cease Trade Talks With Orioles

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Reports back in December suggested that the Orioles had trade interest in Dylan Cease, and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko wrote today that the O’s and Padres indeed had some level of discussion about the right-hander’s availability.  However, it isn’t clear if talks have gone anywhere, as Kubatko reports that San Diego “checked on” some notable Baltimore players who “weren’t on the table,” including All-Star infielder Jordan Westburg and top prospects Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo.  The nature of the trade discussion aren’t known, but presumably one of these three would’ve been the headliner of a trade package, with Cease (and perhaps other players) heading to Baltimore in return.

Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is said to be looking for “significant major-league value” in exchange for Cease, and it is only natural that Preller would aim high when discussing perhaps his top trade chip.  Landing Westburg would have filled San Diego’s second base position for years to come, Mayo could’ve become the Padres’ first baseman of the future and very likely a contributor in 2025, and Basallo projects as a keeper at either first base or catcher.  San Diego already has one of the sport’s top catching prospects in Ethan Salas, but further adding to the future depth chart would’ve given the Padres an embarrassment of riches at a notoriously difficult position to fill.

For many of these same reasons, the Orioles obviously have no interest in dealing any of this trio.  As Kubatko notes, it is particularly unlikely that Baltimore (or perhaps any other team) would trade away premium controllable talent for Cease, who is slated to enter free agency next winter.

It should be noted that the Orioles did swing a big trade for a rental pitcher just over a year ago, when the O’s moved Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft (Baltimore’s Competitive Balance Round selection) to the Brewers in exchange for Corbin Burnes.  That trade package has been suggested by many as a possible comp for what the Padres might realistically hope to land in a Cease deal, though the fact that the Orioles already depleted their minor league depth for Burnes might make them unlikely to make another splurge for a pitcher with one year of control.

The Twins, Mets, Cubs, and Red Sox are among the teams who have also been linked to Cease’s trade market at various points this winter, though reports have suggested that Minnesota and New York are unable or unwilling to meet the Padres’ demands.  The Red Sox already dealt away some noteworthy young talent to obtain Garrett Crochet from the White Sox, and might not want to move even more players to also add Cease.

With several weeks to go before Opening Day, it is certainly still possible any of these teams or the Orioles could re-emerge as possible trade partners, should the Padres lower their asking price.  On the flip side, pitching injuries in Spring Training might well bring some new teams into the mix, perhaps with some increased desperation that would make them more willing to cough up a bigger trade package that would come closer to meeting San Diego’s needs.

Since Burnes was entering free agency and ultimately headed to the Diamondbacks, an ace pitcher was widely seen as perhaps the top need on Baltimore’s offseason checklist.  While the O’s were known to have at least had some talks about some top free agents or trade targets, the club instead made more moderate pitching adds, signing Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton to one-year contracts.  Sugano and Morton join Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer as the Orioles’ projected starting five, with Albert Suarez working as a swingman in the bullpen, and the likes of Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers, and Chayce McDermott at Triple-A as further depth options.

With Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells also hoping to make late-season returns from UCL surgeries last season, the Orioles might end up having a surplus of rotation options if everyone is healthy.  In theory, it would make sense if the O’s offered one of the younger big league-ready arms as part of a Cease trade, as the Padres could then use that pitcher to take Cease’s spot in their own rotation.  But, with Eflin, Morton, and Sugano all free agents next winter, Baltimore surely hopes to dip into its depth to reload what might be a very different-looking rotation in 2026.

Looking For A Match In A Dylan Cease Trade

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For a second straight offseason, Dylan Cease enters spring training as his team’s staff ace … and also as perhaps the most prominent trade candidate in the sport. The Padres, strapped for cash all winter, have made next to no additions to a roster that needs help in left field, at designated hitter and in the final few spots of the rotation. Trading Cease would only exacerbate their rotation need, but he’s the type of arm who could return an immediate fill-in (albeit one with a lower and less established ceiling) in addition to young prospects.

The Padres have entertained offers on the majority of their impending free agents under similar lines of thinking. Cease, Michael King, Luis Arraez and Robert Suarez (opt-out) have all seen their names pop up on the rumor circuit this winter. Cease probably has the most trade value of them all, given his track record, durability, reasonable $13.75MM salary, high-octane arsenal and the potential for an acquiring club to not only add a Game 1 or Game 2 playoff starter to its roster but also to potentially recoup a draft pick in 2026 if/when Cease rejects a qualifying offer in November.

A Cease trade at this juncture would in many ways run parallel to last offseason’s trade of Juan Soto, whom the Padres shipped out for immediate MLB help (King, Kyle Higashioka) and slate of MLB-ready (or close to it) arms: Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito and top prospect Drew Thorpe. The Padres moved Thorpe before the season even began, using him as the headline prospect to acquire Cease in the first place. Now, they could conceivably trade Cease for a lower-ceiling/less-established rotation arm and some additional pitching depth and/or a young outfielder.

Exact parallels for a Cease swap are hard to come by, though Anthony Franco recently took a look at some general frameworks that the Padres could seek in a piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Corbin Burnes, who went from the Brewers to the Orioles in exchange for MLB-ready help in the infield (Joey Ortiz) and on the pitching staff (DL Hall) — plus a competitive balance draft pick — is the clearest comparable in recent memory. Burnes was more consistent but also a bit more expensive ($15.637MM to Cease’s $13.75MM).

It’s feasible to think the Padres could command a big league-ready arm and outfielder to fill two holes on their roster while simultaneously freeing up some cash to backfill some of the innings lost in a Cease trade. Any deal shipping him out will bring back a lesser arm(s), and whatever savings the Padres secure could be used to further address the back of the rotation. San Diego probably isn’t going to give up the picks necessary to sign Nick Pivetta, but the free-agent market still has Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Cal Quantrill, Spencer Turnbull, Ross Stripling and Alex Wood, among others.

Alternatively, any money saved via trading Cease could be put toward taking on a chunk of a pricey starter’s contract. Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery and Steven Matz are all buy-low candidates but all could probably be had with the current team picking up some of the bill.

Let’s take a look at some of the best fits for Cease based on a variety of factors including team need, payroll availability, luxury tax status and what type of young/inexpensive pitching and outfield help said theoretical trade partners could offer…

Orioles: The Orioles have made several additions to the rotation this winter, but they’re generally lacking ceiling. Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano would’ve been a higher-end pair to sign back in 2019 than in 2025. They could both still provide some average or even slightly better-than-average innings in bulk, but it’d be a surprise if either looked like a clear playoff-caliber starter at season’s end. Baltimore’s current rotation includes that pair, Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. It’s a solid enough quintet on paper, and they could get late-season help from Kyle Bradish and/or Tyler Wells as that pair mends from a UCL surgeries performed last June.

Baltimore hasn’t replaced Burnes, who signed a six-year deal in Arizona, with an arm of comparable quality. Cease would be just that. Between Kremer, Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers and Chayce McDermott, the O’s have a collection of inexpensive arms who could step into the back half of San Diego’s rotation. The prize for the Padres in a trade with Baltimore would probably be the bat acquired. The Orioles aren’t giving up Coby Mayo or Jackson Holliday for one year of a starter, but Heston Kjerstad once again looks like he’s a man without a clear path to playing time. The O’s could’ve penciled him in to replace Anthony Santander, but they instead signed Tyler O’Neill. Kjerstad turns 26 this month, has nearly a year of MLB service and hasn’t been given a full-time look. The O’s have touted outfielders like Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Dylan Beavers on the rise behind him, plus Colton Cowser already in the majors.

Red Sox: Boston hasn’t made the big free-agent splash that many expected, but it’s hard to say that any team that acquired Garrett Crochet hasn’t invested in bolstering the rotation. Crochet joins Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, free agent signee Walker Buehler and (eventually) a returning Lucas Giolito in a deep and talented Red Sox rotation mix. You could argue the Sox don’t need to further augment the group, but Buehler is a rebound candidate and Giolito could be on some kind of set workload. Even if that’s not the case, a September (and hopefully for Craig Breslow & Co., October) rotation scene including Crochet, Cease, Giolito, Houck and Buehler could be overpowering.

Crawford wilted considerably down the stretch, but he has four years of control remaining and is earning just $2.75MM this season. Depth arms like Quinn Priester, Richard Fitts and Cooper Criswell could all hold appeal to the Padres as well. None of that group has reached arbitration. Criswell is controlled for five more years. Priester and Fitts can be controlled for six. The Sox aren’t giving up Jarren Duran or Ceddanne Rafaela for a year of Cease, but would they consider selling high on Wilyer Abreu? They could turn to an outfield stopgap like Randal Grichuk or Mark Canha to give them a right-handed bat while leaving the door open for uber prospect Roman Anthony to seize a regular job sooner than later.

Twins: The Twins’ interest in Cease is a head-scratcher at first glance, if only because Minnesota is in a similar payroll crunch to the Padres. However, as the offseason has gone on, it’s been reported that Minnesota might not actually need to cut payroll and might even have a couple million to spend. The Twins could shed some money in other trades, perhaps shipping out Chris Paddack ($7.5MM), some of Christian Vazquez’s contract (one year, $10MM remaining) and/or utilityman Willi Castro ($6.4MM). A trade with the Padres could also send a bit of money to San Diego, depending on which pitcher(s) and/or outfielders are included.

The Twins have Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and Paddack in the rotation at present, with top prospects David Festa and Zebby Matthews already having made their major league debuts. Other arms like Andrew Morris and Travis Adams aren’t terribly far from getting a look. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes recently suggested that the Padres would probably want Ryan or Ober to headline a deal. Ryan seems like a bridge too far for the Twins. Ober is earning $3.35MM this season and has three years of club control remaining. Any of Woods Richardson, Festa and/or Matthews is pre-arbitration. The Twins have young outfielders like Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner to pitch. Larnach is making $2.1MM. Trading one of Larnach or Wallner could open a clearer path for top prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez or Luke Keaschall to step into the big leagues. Keaschall has played more infield, but the Twins’ infield is already quite crowded, so his eventual home could be in the outfield or in a multi-position role.

Braves: With Spencer Strider on the mend from UCL surgery and expected back sometime in May, the Braves don’t necessarily have a glaring rotation need. Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach will create a formidable top four — health permitting. Righties Ian Anderson, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep are in the mix for starts while Strider is out and give Atlanta ample depth for the fifth spot in the rotation should each of the top four be healthy early in the summer. Drue Hackenberg, a 2023 second-rounder, climbed three minor league levels and posted sharp results across the board in 2024, providing even more depth.

That glut of arms for what ostensibly appears to be one final rotation spot gives Atlanta plenty of options on the trade market. If the Padres want to acquire multiple lower-end but MLB-ready arms in exchange for Cease, the Braves are a potentially prime trade partner. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has implied that any rotation addition would need to be a clear upgrade over Anderson and Holmes, who are out of minor league options and thus virtual locks to make the roster. Cease checks that box emphatically. And with Jurickson Profar now in the outfield, Atlanta could at least consider the possibility of including Jarred Kelenic in a deal as well. Kelenic’s value is way down after a middling 2024 season, but he has four seasons of club control remaining and — once Ronald Acuña Jr. is healthy — minimal path to everyday at-bats on a roster with Profar, Acuña and Michael Harris II.

Cubs: As with the Braves, the Cubs have a deep collection of arms competing for what looks to be one rotation spot. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd are all rotation locks. Candidates for the fifth spot include Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown — with top prospect Cade Horton on the rise as well. Assad is probably the favorite thanks to a 3.40 ERA through his first 294 big league frames, but below-average command and a subpar strikeout rate lead to less-appealing marks from alternative metrics like FIP (4.49) and SIERA (4.66). The Cubs also signed veteran Colin Rea on a one-year deal, giving them a seasoned No. 5 option or swingman in the bullpen.

On top of the plethora of young arms, the Cubs have two top-100 outfield prospects in Owen Caissie (an original Padres draftee who went to the Cubs in the Yu Darvish trade) and Kevin Alcantara. Both are essentially MLB-ready. Alcantara has already debuted. Chicago has Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker in the outfield with Seiya Suzuki at designated hitter. There’s no path to 2025 playing time for Caissie or Alcantara if the current outfield is healthy. Plus, Happ and Suzuki are signed through 2026 while Crow-Armstrong is controlled all the way through 2030. Dealing from their stock of outfield talent to further cement themselves as the NL Central favorite and add a clear playoff starter makes good sense. The Cubs already made a big one-year bet on Tucker. That ought to embolden them to further push all-in on 2025. At the very least, they could expect 2026 draft compensation for Tucker and Cease, lessening the sting of some of the prospects they surrender.

Mets: President of baseball operations David Stearns doesn’t seem to want to commit long-term to starting pitchers, making Cease a natural target. He’d immediately ascend to the top of the rotation in Queens, giving the Mets the clear Game 1 type of starter they presently lack. Cease, Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea would make a nice top three, with Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, David Peterson and Paul Blackburn as options to round out the staff … unless, of course, Peterson is one of the names headed back to the Padres in a theoretical trade package. Like Cease and Michael King last year, he has two seasons of club control remaining. He’d give the Friars an experienced arm to take up some of Cease’s innings, and the Mets have plenty of additional names to offer on top of that.

Tylor Megill doesn’t look to have a clear spot on the roster, barring injuries. He looks like more of a depth piece but could add some innings to the San Diego rotation. Top pitching prospect Brandon Sproat is the type of near-MLB arm who could serve as a headliner. The Mets also have appealing young hitters like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña. All three are infielders, but they’ve all at least tinkered in the outfield as well. All three have the athleticism to handle left field. Mauricio is recovering from an ACL tear and might not be ready for Opening Day, while Acuña struggled in the minors last year and could need more seasoning. Regardless, they could be early-season options, while someone like Baty might be an option to step right into left field if the Padres feel a spring training of work there could ready him for a full-time look in the majors.

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There are, of course, other clubs that have rotation needs and would surely inquire. The Angels seem like an obvious fit but don’t necessarily have the collection of young arms and/or outfielders that the above teams possess. Jo Adell already has three years of MLB service and has yet to establish himself. Taylor Ward is only controlled through 2026 and is making nearly $8MM. The Angels need controllable young arms just as badly as the Padres.

The Blue Jays make some sense, as a team aggressively pursuing 2025 upgrades, but they’ve made those upgrades without sacrificing much in the way of prospects — perhaps in a nod to a potential Plan B if this year’s run at contention doesn’t pan out.

The Rangers, Brewers and Guardians could all make varying degrees of sense, but all three are running up against payroll issues at this point. Texas could try to send Jon Gray and/or Leody Taveras back to San Diego, but they’d need to include significant prospects to offset that pair’s lack of long-term value. The Brewers haven’t signed a free agent to a fully guaranteed deal and seemingly have no money to spend. The Guards haven’t rented a veteran starter like this at any point in recent memory and may be tapped out after re-signing Shane Bieber, Austin Hedges and Carlos Santana and signing Paul Sewald. Perhaps the Tigers could try to package some younger arms (e.g. Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Keider Montero, Ty Madden) and a young hitter like Justyn-Henry Malloy, but their recent addition of Jack Flaherty seems like their final move in the rotation.

Broadly, it’s pretty easy to make a case for Cease on quite a few teams. He’s a Cy Young-caliber arm at his best and is being paid less than the collection of aging veteran arms who signed one-year deals worth $15-16MM this winter (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Charlie Morton, Alex Cobb). The best fits, at least from our vantage point, appear to reside in Baltimore, Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Chicago (Cubs) and New York (Mets), however.

Dylan Cease Discusses Trade Rumors

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For the second consecutive season, right-hander Dylan Cease is the most talked about player in trade rumors as the winter gives way to Spring Training. The then-White Sox hurler was shipped to the Padres in mid-March of last year, just before San Diego started their season in Seoul. It remains to be seen if the club will turn around and deal him during the spring themselves one year later, but AJ Cassavell of MLB.com notes that Cease made clear he isn’t bothered by the rumors swirling around him at yesterday’s FanFest event.

“You just focus on the task at hand,” Cease said, as relayed by Cassavell. “It’s just part of the business, really.”

Cease went on to note how much he loves San Diego and added that he would “definitely” like to stay in town. It certainly remains possible that he’ll be a Padre in 2025 even if it’s difficult to imagine him returning to San Diego upon hitting free agency this offseason. As Cassavell notes, however, a trade might be the most sensible path for the Padres as they navigate a budget crunch with multiple significant holes in their projected 2025 lineup. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Cease bring back the sort of significant return that could address multiple needs for the Padres while also getting his $13.75MM salary off the books to clear the way for further additions.

With that being said, getting the right deal for Cease may be easier said than done. The Cubs, Twins, and Mets are among the teams that have been connected to Cease in recent days, but there have been some indications from both Minnesota and New York that a trade could be difficult to work out. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported earlier this weekend that the Padres are asking for “significant major-league value” in Cease talks, adding that rival executives believe the club is “emboldened” by the exceptional return they received from the Yankees in last winter’s Juan Soto deal. Meanwhile, Hayes reports that the Twins are unwilling to part with top prospects like Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Luke Keaschall at this time and prefer to offer a package of big leaguers who can help address San Diego’s needs in the lineup and rotation.

That might sound like the teams match up well at first glance, but Hayes adds that the specifics of the return package figure to be a sitcking point. He suggests that the Padres are likely to ask for one of Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober as the centerpiece of a deal, which is an ask that it’s hard to imagine Minnesota agreeing to given that both are established, quality mid-rotation arms with three years of team control remaining. Hayes notes that the Twins would prefer to offer a package headlined by a young starter like Zebby Matthews or Simeon Woods Richardson that would also include Trevor Larnach and Willi Castro. Woods Richardson posted solid back-of-the-rotation production for the Twins in his rookie season last year, with a 4.17 ERA in 28 starts, while Matthews struggled in nine starts at the big league level but remains the club’s top pitching prospect and is generally believed to project as a #4 starter in the majors long-term.

The value discrepancy between players of Ryan and Ober’s caliber and the likes of Matthews and Woods Richardson is significant, and the sides would need to move significant off their current stances in order for a deal to come together. It appears to be a similar story with the Mets, as Will Sammon of The Athletic recently described Cease coming to Queens as “unlikely” due to the expected acquisition cost. Whether that’s due to a lack of willingness to part with a high-end package in order to land Cease or if the club simply lacks the pieces necessary to get a deal done is unclear, however, as Sammon goes on to mention the club’s failed pursuit of Garrett Crochet earlier this winter. The Mets were among a number of teams interested in Crochet, but he ultimately was dealt to the Red Sox because, as Sammon writes, Boston was able to offer “higher-quality prospects” than the Mets were.

Sammon goes on to suggests that the Mets could swing a deal if the Padres’ asking price comes down through the spring or revisit talks at the trade deadline, when Cease would be less valuable due to an acquiring club no longer being able to extend him the Qualifying Offer. Of course, a Cease trade may be far less likely by the time the summer rolls around. The Padres will have to fill their vacancies in the lineup one way or another before the season begins, and if they manage to do so without dealing Cease it’s difficult to imagine the club then shifting gears and shipping Cease out in the middle of a pennant race unless they’ve fallen out of contention.

No Extension Talks Between Padres, Michael King

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Yesterday, the Padres and right-hander Michael King avoided an arbitration hearing with a creative deal that guarantees King $7.75MM. The deal splits that guarantee between a signing bonus and the buyout on a 2026 mutual option in addition to his 2025 salary in order to slightly ease some of the financial issues facing San Diego as they look to upgrade their roster this winter. Despite the sides’ ability to come together on an unusual solution to their dispute over King’s salary for this year, however, the right-hander told reporters (including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune) at the Padres’ FanFest event today that he has not been approached regarding a long-term extension that would keep him in San Diego beyond the 2025 season.

That there apparently has not yet been a conversation between the two camps about a long-term deal is an interesting development given previous reports that the club believes King to be more amenable to the possibility of an extension than fellow walk year righty Dylan Cease. Those rumors have led to a belief throughout the offseason that San Diego would prefer to deal Cease rather than King if they end up trading one of their two front-of-the-rotation arms amid their pursuit of pitching depth and lineup upgrades. That appears to still be the case, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the club is “not actively shopping” King in the aftermath of the sides reaching an arbitration agreement. Acee is quick to note that the new contract doesn’t necessarily preclude a trade from occurring, but it appears clearer than ever that the Padres’ preference is for the departing pitcher to be Cease if they wind up dealing one of their top arms.

As for King, the righty spoke to reporters (including Sanders) about the swirling trade rumors today, saying that he would be “shocked” if he were to be traded before adding that hearing your name in the rumor mill is “part of the business.”

“Obviously anything can happen,” King said, as relayed by Sanders. “I didn’t think I was going to get traded over here that offseason last year. Anything can happen.”

While it’s unclear whether King’s confidence that he’ll be in a Padres uniform on Opening Day and the club’s apparent preference for dealing Cease if one of the pair is traded will actually lead to King remaining in San Diego, it should be noted that the sides not yet having discussed an extension does not preclude them from doing so in the coming weeks. Extension negotiations between players and clubs frequently open after the start of Spring Training, and the Padres have been among the most prolific clubs in the sport when it comes to springtime extensions in recent years.

It was just two years ago that San Diego signed Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, and Yu Darvish to a trio of lengthy extensions over the course of Spring Training 2023, and two years before that the club famously agreed to a massive $340MM contract with Fernando Tatis Jr. during Spring Training 2021. They’ve at least explored extensions with other players during the spring in recent years as well, such as Jackson Merrill last winter. Whether King will join the list of Padres player to put pen to paper on extensions just before reaching free agency remains to be seen, but even with no talks between the sides to this point the possibility of some discussions between the sides this spring can’t be ruled out.

Aside from San Diego’s hefty payroll commitments that have limited their flexibility in recent years, one potential obstacle for any King extension would surely be his unusual history. The right-hander posted an excellent season in 2024 with a 2.95 ERA in 173 2/3 innings of work, but that was his first season pitching as a full-time starting pitcher since 2018, during his age-23 season in the minor leagues. While King’s 39 starts since being put back in the rotation by the Yankees down the stretch last year have been electric, his ability to keep up with a 150+ inning workload for a second consecutive season will surely have a major impact on his value in free agency. Given the importance of his platform season, it wouldn’t be a shock if the sides struggled to reach an agreement on what fair value looks like even if they do engage in extension talks at some point before Opening Day.

Mets Have Shown Interest In Dylan Cease

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The Mets are among the teams that have spoken with the Padres regarding Dylan Cease, writes Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported this afternoon that the Cubs were also involved on the star righty.

Cease is one of the biggest names to watch over the next six weeks. San Diego has fielded interest in virtually all of their highly-priced players who could test free agency next offseason (e.g. Cease, Luis Arraez, Michael King, Robert Suarez). Every contender could be involved on Cease, who is coming off a fourth-place finish in NL Cy Young balloting.

If he does move, it’d be the second straight winter in which Cease is dealt late in the offseason. The Padres acquired him from the White Sox midway through Spring Training last year. His first season with the Friars was excellent. He worked to a 3.47 ERA while striking out 224 batters over 189 1/3 innings. Cease has not missed a start since 2019. He has topped 200 strikeouts in four straight seasons and has two top five Cy Young finishes in the past three years.

San Diego has had a quiet winter as they navigate payroll restrictions and squabbling amongst their ownership group. The Padres only have three pitchers who’d be locked into their season-opening rotation: Cease, King and Yu Darvish. Trading either Cease or King would subtract from the rotation’s ceiling, but it stands to reason they’d demand at least one cheaper MLB-ready starting pitcher as part of the return. San Diego also needs to find a new left fielder after letting Jurickson Profar walk in free agency.

Last year’s Corbin Burnes trade serves as a template for what the Friars could demand for Cease. The Brewers netted two MLB-ready players who’d been borderline top 100 prospects (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall), plus the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft, from the Orioles. Cease is slated for a $13.75MM salary in his final year of arbitration. While the Padres do not expect to work out a long-term deal with the Boras Corporation client, they’re trying to balance their long-term outlook against the goal of returning to the postseason this year.

Heyman suggests that the Padres could subsequently look to sign Jack Flaherty or Nick Pivetta if they deal Cease or King. That’d require an unexpected willingness to stretch the budget. Even if they look to short-term deals, Flaherty and Pivetta should each beat $13.75MM annually. Pivetta would also require draft pick forfeiture after declining a qualifying offer. That series of events would raise payroll and still leave San Diego with a hole in left field unless they address that via the hypothetical Cease trade.

The Mets have been reluctant to make long-term pitching investments under president of baseball operations David Stearns. They’ve addressed the rotation with a series of shorter-term moves. They brought back Sean Manaea for three years and (a partially deferred) $75MM, added reliever conversion pickup Clay Holmes on a three-year deal, and taken a two-year flier on Frankie Montas. That trio joins Kodai Senga and David Peterson in their projected starting five. Paul Blackburn, Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning are depth options. It’s not a bad group but lacks a true ace, especially if Senga’s workload is limited after he barely pitched in 2024.

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