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AL Central Notes: Royals, Cease, Tigers

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The Royals’ Opening Day roster has begun to come into focus, as the Royals recently optioned first baseman Nick Pratto, outfielder Drew Waters, and catcher Austin Nola to the minor leagues. Those positional cuts from camp helped to clarify the club’s bench mix, as manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) yesterday that infielder Nick Loftin and outfielder Dairon Blanco have both made the club’s Opening Day roster. Blanco will slot into a reserve outfielder role behind MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Hunter Renfroe, and Nelson Velazquez. Meanwhile, Loftin will step into a bench role previously ticketed for veteran Adam Frazier, who is set to become the club’s Opening Day second baseman with Michael Massey expected to begin the season on the injured list due to lower back tightness.

It’s an unfortunate development for Massey, who celebrated his 26th birthday earlier this week. The infielder was the club’s everyday option at the keystone last year and performed well on defense but struggled with the bat throughout the season. The youngster showed signs of life in the second half, however, slashing a respectable .250/.285/.458 with 11 home runs in 229 trips to the plate over his final 60 games in 2023. That display left him in line to receive the lion’s share of playing time at second once again this year even after the Royals added Frazier and Garrett Hampson in free agency. Now that Massey is set to begin the season on the shelf, however, Frazier will have the opportunity to play his way into a larger role early in the season. The 32-year-old veteran has been a roughly league average bat consistently throughout his career, with a .269/.331/.393 slash across eight seasons in the big leagues, including a .240/.300/.396 showing with the Orioles last year.

As for the trio of recent cuts, none of them are especially surprising. Pratto appeared unlikely to have a role with the big league club to open the season thanks to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino’s return from labrum surgery and Nelson Velazquez’s emergence as a credible slugger at DH. Waters, similarly, is the odd man out in the club’s crowded outfield mix. Both former top prospects will open the season at Triple-A, providing them an opportunity to receive regular reps they couldn’t get with the big league Royals. Nola starting the season in the minors is hardly a surprise, either, as he joined the club on a split contract that was seemingly designed to allow him to be a backup to Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin at the Triple-A level.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The White Sox recently dealt right-hander Dylan Cease after months of rumors and speculation, shipping him to the Padres in exchange for a prospect package headlined by Drew Thorpe. Club GM Chris Getz recently spoke to Scott Merkin of MLB.com about the trade and noted that San Diego was one of two clubs who made “significant offers,” with Merkin reporting that the Rangers were the second place finisher for Cease’s services. Getz also made clear that the sides did not engage in extension negotiations amid the winter’s trade rumors, adding that while the club would have “loved” to keep Cease in the fold long term, he felt such an arrangement “wasn’t realistic.” That’s somewhat understandable, as Chicago suffered a 101-loss season last year and appears to have a long way to go before contending again, even in a relatively weak AL Central division. Given that reality, it would’ve been surprising to see the club commit to the sort of significant outlay that would have been required to retain the runner-up for the 2022 AL Cy Young award.
  • Tigers youngster Sawyer Gipson-Long once appeared likely to compete with other youngsters such as Casey Mize, Reese Olson, and Matt Manning for a role in the club’s starting rotation alongside Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, and Kenta Maeda. Unfortunately for Gipson-Long, he’s been nursing a left groin strain throughout camp that, as noted by Evan Woodbery of the Detroit Free Press, will lead to him opening the season on the injured list. Gipson-Long, who the club acquired at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for right-hander Michael Fulmer, made his big league debut late in the season last year and impressed during four starts in the majors. In 20 innings of work, the right-hander posted a 2.70 ERA with a 3.16 FIP while striking out an excellent 31.7% of batters faced. With Mize and Olson now set to start the season in the rotation, Gipson-Long figures to head to Triple-A Toledo once healthy, where he’ll provide Detroit with quality rotation depth alongside Matt Manning and wait for an opportunity in the big leagues.

MLBTR Podcast: Mutiny In The MLBPA, Blake Snell Signs With The Giants And The Dylan Cease Trade

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The recent news of the divide in the MLBPA (2:15)
  • The release of J.D. Davis and its impact on the MLBPA situation (8:45)
  • Recent collective bargaining agreement history and its relation to current MLBPA strife (11:30)
  • Giants sign Blake Snell (17:25)
  • Padres acquire Dylan Cease from the White Sox (23:15)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will the Blue Jays make a run at Juan Soto when he hits free agency next year? (33:35)
  • I don’t understand some of the outfielder signings this offseason. How does Hunter Renfroe command $6.5MM when Adam Duvall only gets $3MM? Why would the Twins trade for Manuel Margot when they could have just re-signed Michael A. Taylor? Is there a logical explanation? Or did the Twins and Royals front offices just screw up? (39:45)
  • Do you think that Emmanuel Clase could be traded at the deadline if the Guardians out of it? If so, what do you think he’d fetch at full strength? (43:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Padres Acquire Dylan Cease

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The Dylan Cease saga has come to an end. The Padres announced the acquisition of the right-hander from the White Sox for four players: prospects Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte and Samuel Zavala and big league reliever Steven Wilson.

Cease has been a trade candidate at least as far back as last summer’s deadline. While Chicago took him off the market at that time, first-year general manager Chris Getz made clear that he was willing to consider offers on virtually everyone on the roster going into the offseason. That made Cease one of the top names of the winter.

Chicago fielded offers early in the offseason before pulling back. The Sox indicated they wanted to wait for the free agent rotation market to play out before aggressively shopping the star righty. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery have lingered in free agency longer than anyone anticipated. With Opening Day two weeks away, Chicago seemed to find more urgency to make a move. They’d reportedly talked with the Yankees and Rangers within the past few days, but it is San Diego that gets the deal done.

It’s a massive strike for them just a week before they’ll open the regular season with a two-game set against the Dodgers in South Korea. For much of the offseason, the Padres have gone in the opposite direction. They faced significant payroll constraints that led to the free agent departures of Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha. Snell seems likely to follow.

The biggest loss, of course, came via trade. The Padres dealt Juan Soto to the Yankees before his final year of team control. That both offloaded his arbitration salary — which eventually checked in at $31MM — and brought back a number of controllable starting pitchers to compensate for the free agent departures. Michael King will step into the middle of the rotation. Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are candidates for a back-end role. Thorpe came over in that trade and would have been in the rotation mix as well, but he’s now headed to Chicago before throwing a regular season pitch for the Padres.

Despite targeting upper level pitching in the Soto return, San Diego had a largely unproven rotation. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish were locked into the top two spots. King was ensured of a job after a strong finish last season with the Yankees, but he’d been a reliever for most of his major league career. He only moved to the starting staff for his final eight appearances beginning at the end of August. The rest of the starting pitching options in the organization have limited MLB experience of any kind.

Cease addresses that lack of experience. The former sixth-round pick has been a fixture of the Sox’s rotation since 2020. Aside from a brief virus-related absence in ’21, he hasn’t missed any time as a major leaguer. Cease leads the majors with 109 starts over the last four seasons.

At his best, Cease has paired that pristine durability with a top-of-the-rotation ceiling. He was dominant two seasons ago, turning in a 2.20 ERA with an excellent 30.4% strikeout rate through 184 innings. He was runner-up behind Justin Verlander in that season’s Cy Young balloting and received some down-ballot MVP consideration.

The 28-year-old didn’t replicate that ace-caliber production last season. He had a pedestrian 4.58 ERA across 177 frames. While some level of regression from a 2.20 mark always seemed likely, his earned run average more than doubling wasn’t expected. That’s partially a reflection of a dramatic swing in Cease’s batted ball fortune. Opponents hit only .260 on balls in play against him in 2022; that spiked 70 points a season ago.

Beyond the ball-in-play results, Cease was a little less overpowering in ’23 than he’d been the previous season. His swinging strike rate dipped from 15% to 13.6%. He lost three percentage points off his strikeout rate, which fell to 27.3%. The average velocity on both his fastball (95.6 MPH) and slider (86.3 MPH) dropped a tick. Those are all still better than average marks but not quite as impressive as his 2022 metrics.

As is often the case, Cease’s true talent ERA very likely falls somewhere in the middle. Going back to the start of 2020, he carries a 3.58 mark in just shy of 600 innings. That has come in a tough home ballpark for pitchers in front of generally lackluster defenses.

At the same time, Cease has never had pristine control of his high-octane stuff. He has walked more than 10% of batters faced in three of the past four seasons, including his Cy Young runner-up campaign. He issued free passes at a 10.1% clip last year. That inconsistent command has kept him from blossoming into a true ace and is part of the reason he’s “only” 16th in innings pitched over the last four seasons despite topping MLB in starts.

It’s debatable but largely immaterial where Cease slots alongside Darvish and Musgrove among San Diego’s top three starters. King moves to the #4 spot, while the Friars now have only one Opening Day rotation job up for grabs. Brito, Vásquez, knuckleballer Matt Waldron and the out-of-options Pedro Avila could each be in the mix for the role.

It’s a renewed push for contention by a San Diego front office that has never shied away from dealing for star talent. Cease becomes the defining addition of the Padre offseason, largely enabled by his affordability. He and the White Sox had agreed to an $8MM salary to avoid arbitration. He’s under control via that process through the 2025 campaign. The Padres can plug him into the rotation for the next two years for what’ll likely be between $20MM and $25MM overall.

RosterResource calculates San Diego’s 2024 player payroll around $167MM, including Cease’s salary. The trade pushes their luxury tax number around $224MM, roughly $13MM below this year’s lowest threshold. The Friars have worked to stay under the tax line after exceeding it in each of the past three seasons. They still have questions about the overall roster depth — particularly in the outfield — but they have some flexibility to continue adding either this spring or at the deadline without pushing into CBT territory.

Landing a pitcher of Cease’s caliber and affordability required parting with a few fairly well-regarded young players. San Diego was never going to trade Ethan Salas or Jackson Merrill and managed to keep young pitchers Dylan Lesko and Robby Snelling out of the deal. Thorpe, Zavala and Iriarte were all generally regarded in the next tier of Padres talents. Baseball America ranked all three between fifth and ninth in the San Diego system. The Athletic’s Keith Law had those players in the 6-9 range on his organizational prospect list.

As a key piece of the Soto return, Thorpe is probably the most well-known of the bunch. A second-round pick in 2022 out of Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, Thorpe had a breakout showing in his first full minor league season. The 6’4″ right-hander worked to a 2.52 ERA in 23 starts between High-A and Double-A last year. He fanned more than a third of opposing hitters against a modest 7.1% walk rate.

Thorpe doesn’t light up radar guns with a fastball that sits in the low-90s. Evaluators credit him with a plus or better changeup and an above-average breaking ball, though. He has shown advanced strike-throwing acumen, although Law writes that his precise command (the ability to spot pitches where he wants them) isn’t as impressive as his control (hitting the strike zone consistently). Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel all placed Thorpe in the back half of the league’s Top 100 prospects this winter. He’s a potential mid-rotation arm who could impact the Sox as soon as this year.

Iriarte, a 6’2″ righty from Venezuela, could also be part of the major league pitching staff at some point in 2024. The 22-year-old worked 90 1/3 frames across 27 appearances between High-A and Double-A last season. He allowed 3.49 earned runs per nine behind a 33.2% strikeout percentage. He also walked almost 12% of opposing hitters, but there’s clear bat-missing potential.

Evaluators credit Iriarte with upper 90s velocity with a plus slider and a promising but inconsistent changeup. The chance for three above-average to plus offerings gives him significant upside, although evaluators are split on whether he’ll stick as a starting pitcher. He’ll need to refine his secondary stuff and continue to improve his control, but his athleticism gives him the opportunity to do so. FanGraphs slotted Iriarte in the back half of their Top 100 list. The Sox can take their time to afford him plenty of reps in the upper minors.

Zavala, 19, is a further away development flier. The lefty-hitting outfielder was one of the better prospects in the 2020-21 international signing period. He spent most of last season at Low-A Lake Elsinore. Zavala’s .267/.420/.451 batting line is impressive for a player his age, but prospect evaluators are divided on his long-term upside. Law suggests he’s unlikely to stick in center field, while most reports question his pure contact skills. Zavala took plenty of walks but also struck out at an alarming 27.2% clip in Low-A.

Wilson might be the fourth piece of the return, but he should step directly into the big league bullpen. The 29-year-old righty has been a quality reliever in each of the last two seasons. Wilson owns a 3.48 ERA across 106 career innings. He has fanned just over a quarter of opposing hitters against a 10.9% walk rate. Wilson leans heavily on a low-80s breaking ball and sits in the mid-90s with his fastball.

That profile has led to better strikeout and walk numbers versus right-handed batters, but Wilson has gotten decent results against hitters of either handedness. He could step into high-leverage work in a completely open Sox bullpen. The Santa Clara product has exactly two years of service. Chicago controls him through at least 2027, depending on whether they option him to the minors at any point. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until next offseason.

The White Sox had named Cease their Opening Day starter. That’s no longer on the table as they commit even further to a retool. KBO returnee Erick Fedde is perhaps the top pitcher in what might be the weakest rotation in the American League. Michael Soroka, Chris Flexen, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet and Jared Shuster are among the other possibilities. Thorpe figures to open the season in Triple-A but could pitch his way into the mix before long.

Chicago could go outside the organization to try to backfill some of their lost innings. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last night that the Sox had interest in Michael Lorenzen as a potential Cease replacement. Zack Greinke, Jake Odorizzi and old friend Johnny Cueto also remain unsigned.

Iriarte and Wilson are each on the 40-man roster. Thorpe and Zavala won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until the 2025-26 offseason, although Thorpe seems likely to pitch his way onto the MLB roster well before that point. Chicago designated outfielder Peyton Burdick for assignment to open the necessary 40-man spot.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Padres were finalizing a trade for Cease. Jon Heyman of the New York Post confirmed a Cease agreement was in place. Jon Morosi of MLB.com was first to report the White Sox were acquiring Thorpe and Iriarte. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin first reported Wilson’s inclusion. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first with Zavala being in the deal.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres, White Sox Have Recently Discussed Dylan Cease Trade

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Trade talk surrounding White Sox righty Dylan Cease has apparently rekindled in full. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Padres and White Sox have recently discussed the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up, which aligns with yesterday’s report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, wherein he noted that the White Sox have had several members of their front office present to get first-hand looks at the Padres in recent days. The Friars join the Yankees and Rangers as clubs prominently linked to Cease in the second act of his offseason trade candidacy.

By now, the merits and risks regarding a trade for Cease have been well documented. He’s an affordable — $8MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2025 — 28-year-old righty with two years of team control who demonstrated his upside with a second-place Cy Young finish in 2022 but struggled through a down year in 2023, when he notched a 4.58 ERA with slightly diminished (but still far better than average) strikeout and velocity numbers. Cease has worse command than one would prefer from a top starting pitcher, which has long been an issue, but he and other Sox hurlers have also been harmed by perennially poor defensive alignments behind them.

Last year’s pedestrian ERA notwithstanding, Cease is a durable power pitcher whom other organizations undoubtedly view as a playoff-caliber starter — if not a true No. 1 then at least a strong No. 2-3 option in a postseason rotation. No pitcher in baseball has started more games than Cease’s 109 dating back to 2020 — his first full season at the MLB level. Even if one were to assume that Cease’s 2022 season was an outlier, career-best campaign while his 2023 ERA was somewhat fluky in nature, a look at his entire body of work over the past three seasons reveals strong overall numbers: 526 2/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with a huge 29.8% strikeout rate against an elevated 10.1% walk rate. Fielding-independent metrics tend to support the idea that Cease’s talent level lands somewhere in the mid-  to upper-3.00s.

In terms of pure team fit, the Padres are as strong a match as one could conjure up. The Friars’ offseason has been something of a financially motivated reset, but the team isn’t about to enter a full-scale rebuild with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove all signed long-term. The Padres only have three clear starters at the moment in Musgrove, Darvish and trade acquisition Michael King, who came over from the Yankees in the Juan Soto swap.

Adding Cease to the rotation and cementing the top four spots would create a fifth-starter battle including Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome and others. The team’s chances of competing with that group vying for only the final spot in the rotation, obviously, would be far greater than needing to rely on two names from that unproven group to carry the back end of the staff. (Some of those names, of course, could be included in a theoretical trade package with the White Sox.)

The affordable nature of Cease’s contract surely appeals to a San Diego club that has slashed the present-day cost of its roster by nearly $100MM. That’s doubly true in that Cease’s $8MM salary wouldn’t put the Padres anywhere particularly close to the $237MM luxury-tax threshold they’re clearly hoping to avoid. RosterResource projects San Diego at just over $216MM in luxury obligations. Cease would be a net $7.26MM in luxury considerations, bringing the team to around $223.5MM. That’d still leave some room if president of baseball operations A.J. Preller wants to add Cease and pursue one more free agent outfielder, as has been rumored; the Padres were connected to Adam Duvall, Michael A. Taylor and old friend Tommy Pham earlier this week.

While Preller’s years of frenetic activity on the trade market lead to constant churn in the farm system, the Padres remain strong in that regard. Each of MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball America rank the Padres among the sport’s top six farm systems, due largely to strong drafting and international scouting, in addition to replenishing some of their lost depth in the trade that sent Soto and Trent Grisham to New York. Top prospect Jackson Merrill looks on track to be the team’s Opening Day center fielder and is surely all but untouchable alongside ballyhooed catcher Ethan Salas. But the Friars have as many as six other prospects who’ve drawn top-100 fanfare, in addition to a slew of near-MLB-ready talent that could entice the ChiSox to part with Cease.

Rangers, White Sox Have Recently Discussed Dylan Cease

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Significant trades halfway through Spring Training are rare, yet speculation about White Sox’s staff ace Dylan Cease hasn’t gone away. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the Yankees put a new trade proposal on the table for Chicago’s expected Opening Day starter. Meanwhile, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that the Rangers are still considering which players they might need to relinquish to try to pry Cease from the Sox.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that the Sox and Rangers have had recent conversations regarding Cease. Rosenthal indicates that Chicago seems to be “getting more serious” about dealing the hard-throwing righty this spring.

Manager Pedro Grifol demurred this evening when asked whether he still expected Cease to start for the Sox on Opening Day. “I don’t know. I mean, how am I supposed to know that,” he asked rhetorically (via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). “I don’t know what’s going to happen out there. I don’t know where other teams are, what their urgency is. … I leave that to our major league scouts, our general manager, the front office.”

While the Yankees’ renewed interest in Cease is tied to Gerrit Cole’s MRI, Texas hasn’t dealt with any recent injuries to their rotation. Yet they went into camp knowing that three of their top starters — Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle — were going to begin the year on the shelf. Mahle and deGrom seem likely to be out past the All-Star Break as they work back from last year’s respective Tommy John procedures. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December and is expected to be sidelined into June.

That puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the pitching staff to hold the fort for the season’s first couple months. The Rangers have a front four of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney. Left-hander Cody Bradford is the favorite for the #5 job to open the season. Texas optioned Cole Winn over the weekend, taking him out of the mix for an Opening Day job. Owen White and Zak Kent are on the 40-man roster but have a combined two MLB appearances between them (both by White). José Ureña and Adrian Sampson are in camp on non-roster deals but should be behind Bradford on the depth chart.

If healthy, that’s still a solid front four. Yet there’s a fair amount of injury risk with much of that group. Eovaldi has twice undergone Tommy John surgery in his career. Gray has been on the injured list four times in his two seasons as a Ranger. Heaney was healthy last season but lost a good chunk of 2022 to shoulder problems. Even Dunning has a Tommy John surgery in his history, although he has been durable and quite effective for the last three seasons.

Even if that entire group stays healthy, Texas would benefit from another arm who can push Bradford to a long relief role. The southpaw turned in a 5.30 ERA in his first 56 big league frames a year ago. He has excellent control but struggled with home runs last season. That’s likely to be a recurring concern as a fly-ball pitcher without overpowering stuff. His fastball averaged 90.4 MPH.

To his credit, the Baylor product has pitched well this spring. Bradford has rattled off 11 innings of three-run ball, fanning nine against a pair of walks. Still, that’s unlikely to deter the front office from considering ways to upgrade the staff as they look to defend the first World Series in franchise history.

The Sox’s asking price on Cease has remained high, which is why he’s still in Chicago two weeks from Opening Day. The 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up is coming off a down year, turning in a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. With mid-90s velocity and a strikeout rate that sat above 27% last season, he’s a clear rebound candidate. Cease is under arbitration control for two more years and will make $8MM in 2024. That affordability makes him an attractive alternative to top remaining free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The Rangers have had a fairly quiet offseason, thanks in part to trepidation about the long-term viability of their TV deal with Bally Sports.

Report: Yankees Make New Offer For Dylan Cease

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The Yankees are still in the process of gathering information on Gerrit Cole’s elbow after he reported difficulty recovering between starts and underwent an MRI on Monday. In the meantime, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that they’ve made a new offer to the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease. Prior reporting on the talks between the two teams have indicated that the Yankees have refused to include outfield prospect Spencer Jones in any package for Cease, and Nightengale notes that Jones once again is not included in the new offer.

Trade talk surrounding Cease has died down in the latter stages of the offseason. White Sox GM Chris Getz has steadfastly held his asking price in negotiations throughout the offseason — an ask that other teams have deemed exorbitant.

If the Yankees indeed go outside the organization to bolster their staff, there’s some sense to preferring a trade to, say, signing a free agent like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. Snell and Montgomery would come with huge annual salaries that are magnified by the 110% luxury tax the Yankees would pay for any additions at this point, given the current state of their payroll. Snell, in particular, would cost the Yankees their second-highest draft pick and $1MM of space from next year’s international amateur free agency pool, as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. Cease has also been in camp with the White Sox, pitching in spring training games and building up for the season. Snell and Montgomery are surely working out on their own in preparation for the season, but that’s not necessarily the same as working in game settings. Cease wouldn’t come with any questions about whether he’d be ready for Opening Day, whereas a free-agent pickup at this point in the offseason calendar very much could.

Cease, the 2022 American League Cy Young runner-up, is earning $8MM this season and is controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration. He’s coming off a down year, having posted a pedestrian 4.58 earned run average in 177 frames with somewhat diminished averaged fastball velocity (96.9 mph in ’22, 95.8 mph in ’23). But Cease maintained strong strikeout numbers, missed bats at a plus level and was to some extent hampered by a .330 average on balls in play that was 46 points higher than his career mark entering the season. Other teams clearly view him as a playoff-caliber starter — evidenced by the widespread demand for him this winter — and the White Sox don’t seem likely to lower their asking price substantially, knowing they can also extract a substantial trade return for Cease this summer as long as he remains healthy.

Holding Cease with an eye toward the deadline presents the Sox with an obvious risk, as pitcher attrition in the sport is an inevitability. That’s underscored by the very reason the Yankees have apparently reengaged the White Sox on Cease. Cole and Cease have been the game’s two most durable starters for the past four years. Since 2020 (Cease’s first full season in MLB), Cease leads all big league pitchers with 109 starts. Cole’s 108 rank second, tying him with Aaron Nola and Jose Berrios. Even the most durable pitchers eventually break down, and if Cease incurs any kind of notable injury in the season’s first half, holding him will go down as a major setback in the White Sox’ rebuilding efforts.

Risk notwithstanding, the Sox have held firm in their asking price and seem prepared to wait until July if that price is not met. With regard to the Yankees, that includes Jones, a towering 6’6″ outfielder who’s drawn comparisons to Aaron Judge due to his physical size and his immense raw power. It’s unfair to expect any hitter to develop to Judge’s level, but the pure physical traits are similar. Baseball America credits Jones with plus power (60 on the 20-80 scale), while FanGraphs gives him a plus-plus rating (70-grade) in that department. Jones, who hit .267/.336/.444 between High-A and Double-A in his age-22 season last year, currently ranks 15th among all prospects at FanGraphs, 33rd at Baseball Prospectus, 46th at BA, 56th at ESPN and 84th at MLB.com.

Even if the Yankees remain unwilling to include Jones in an offer for Cease, the farm system is stacked with top-100 talents and with quality names behind that high-end contingent. Each of outfielder Jasson Dominguez, outfielder Everson Pereira, catcher Austin Wells, righty Chase Hampton, righty Will Warren and shortstop Roderick Arias has drawn top-100 fanfare on multiple lists. The overall depth of the system is considered strong as well, ranking sixth at ESPN, seventh at The Athletic, ninth at Baseball America and 11th at MLB.com.

The White Sox, who fired longtime baseball operations leaders Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams last summer, have been working to reshape the organization since shaking up the top end of the front office. Getz flatly stated that he “didn’t like our team” at the beginning of the offseason. Since taking the GM reins, he’d traded relievers Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos, moved on from shortstop Tim Anderson and made a series of acquisitions to improve the club’s pitching depth and defense — two longstanding issues. Trading Cease would be his most significant transaction to date.

Yankees Notes: Judge, Cole, Rotation

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Yankees star Aaron Judge has been slowed a bit by some abdominal discomfort recently, with manager Aaron Boone telling reporters yesterday that the 2022 AL MVP is “mid-spring banged up” while downplaying concerns of a more serious injury. Judge revealed this morning that he underwent an MRI on his abdominal region yesterday to ascertain that there was no significant injury at play (X link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). That imaging came back clean. Judge says he won’t swing a bat until later this week but is hopeful he’ll be in the Opening Day lineup.

On the one hand, the fact that Judge has avoided any kind of serious injury is an obvious cause for relief. On the other, it’s hardly ideal that the season hasn’t even begun and he’s less than 100 percent. Judge specified that the discomfort he’s felt has been in the middle of his abdominal muscles — not his oblique region. That’s particularly notable given that Judge has had a pair of oblique strains in the past, including a Grade 2 strain in 2019 that cost him two months of the season.

“I think just from swinging from November all the way until now, every single day, it put some wear and tear on it,” said Judge (via Hoch). “Especially coming back after a [right] toe injury when your mechanics are a little messed up and you’re just working on some things.”

Judge, 32 in April, was once again excellent in 2023 — though a hip strain in late April cost him 10 days, while the sprained toe he referenced wound up shelving him for more than a month. In all, he played in 106 games — his fewest in a 162-game season since 2019 — and posting a brilliant .267/.406/.613 slash with 37 home runs in just 458 trips to the plate.

The Yankees are already awaiting MRI results on ace and reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. Coupling that with even minor concern about the team’s best all-around player makes for an uncomfortable few days for the club and its fans. The Yankees indicated yesterday that Cole is expected to receive multiple opinions on his MRI results. An announcement today is not necessarily a given. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote yesterday that club officials have characterized the Cole MRI as “precautionary” and downplayed concern over a potential long-term injury. Time will tell whether that proves to be the case.

In the wake of the Cole news, there’s been a renewed focus on the Yankees’ rotation depth and ample speculation on contingency plans. The remaining pair of high-profile Scott Boras clients — Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery — have been at the forefront of that speculation. Martino reported in his piece that the Yankees haven’t yet circled back to Snell since concerns about Cole arose. Joel Sherman of the New York Post throws some cold water on the idea of the Yankees pivoting to either left-hander.

The luxury tax concerns for the Yankees have been highlighted at length by now. As a reminder, they’re a third-time payor who’s in the fourth and final tier of penalization. Any further additions to the payroll will be taxed at a 110% rate (based on the contract’s AAV) on top of the player’s salary. In the case of Snell, he’d also require forfeiting the team’s second-highest draft pick and surrendering $1MM of pool space in next year’s international free agent bonus pool, because Snell rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres.

Perhaps in part because of that, Sherman reports that the Yankees were more interested in Montgomery earlier in the offseason than in Snell — despite making a reported offer to the latter. The Yankees, per Sherman, “could not get a strong engagement” from Montgomery at the time, however. That lines up with some late-February reporting from The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, wherein he wrote that Montgomery’s hope had been for a return to the Rangers and that it was “believed” he did not “prefer” a Yankees reunion. With Montgomery still lingering on the market and the Rangers seemingly disinclined to spend further, none of that should expressly rule out an eventual match between Montgomery and the Yankees.

Sherman suggests that the likeliest course of action for the Yankees is to stand pat regardless of the news on Cole, though he opines that if they do make a move, they’re likelier to meet the White Sox’ asking price for right-hander Dylan Cease than they are to sign Snell or Montgomery. Cease is making $8MM this season and is controlled through 2025 via arbitration. He’d come with an $8.8MM luxury hit, but that’s a pittance relative to the tax hits it’d take to sign Montgomery or Snell for an AAV of $25-30MM — if not more. Prior reporting has indicated that the ChiSox were insistent on the inclusion of top outfield prospect Spencer Jones in talks regarding Cease, while the Yankees have been loath to consider moving him in any deal.

White Sox Notes: Cease, Kopech, Colas

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Dylan Cease was among the likelier players to be traded over the offseason. The White Sox stuck firm to an asking price that teams haven’t been willing to meet, though, and it seems the hard-throwing righty will instead be a top deadline candidate. GM Chris Getz declared at the start of camp that the Sox anticipate Cease being on the Guaranteed Rate Field mound on Opening Day.

That remains the case, assistant general manager Josh Barfield tells Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Barfield said that while opposing teams remain in contact with the Sox about Cease, there’s “nothing imminent” on the trade front. “We’re preparing him to be the Opening Day starter,” Barfield reiterated.

Barring a surprising acceleration in trade talks over the next three weeks, Cease will lead a rotation with a fair bit of uncertainty. KBO signee Erick Fedde is penciled into a spot. Getz has indicated the Sox prefer free agent pickup Chris Flexen as a starter, while trade acquisition Michael Soroka has a good chance at a rotation job. Returnees Michael Kopech and Garrett Crochet are battling for spots in camp.

While Crochet is stretching out from relief work to this point in his MLB career, Kopech trailed only Cease in starts for the team last year. That makes it seem likely he’ll be in the season-opening five, but manager Pedro Grifol indicated that isn’t a guarantee. “He’s getting built up to be one of our starters,” Grifol said of Kopech (link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). “I know we want to talk about it, but I think in about another week, we’ll talk about it. Right now, everybody is just competing.”

Kopech indicated that while he prefers to occupy a rotation spot, he’s amenable to whatever role the team asks. The right-hander worked in relief in 2021, turning in a 3.50 ERA across 69 1/3 innings. He stretched out to the rotation two seasons ago. Kopech found success in his first season as a starter, outperforming middling strikeout and walk numbers to manage a 3.54 ERA in 25 appearances. His production fell off last year, as he allowed 5.43 earned runs per nine. No other pitcher with at least 100 innings walked batters more frequently. Kopech handed out free passes at an untenable 15.4% clip.

That was one of a number of disappointing performances for the Sox as they fell to a 101-loss season. On the position player side, rookie right fielder Oscar Colás had one of the more underwhelming showings. Viewed as one of the better prospects in a thin farm system, the lefty-hitting Colás managed only a .216/.257/.314 slash line over his first 75 games.  He was optioned to Triple-A midway through the season. Colás hit .272/.345/.465 over 54 games at the top minor league level.

Getz indicated that trade pickup Dominic Fletcher is in the driver’s seat for the right field job this spring. Colás has gotten some exhibition work at first base as he looks to expand his utility for a possible bench role. The Sox have used him exclusively in the outfield during regular season play in the majors and upper minors. Colás got scattered reps at first base early in his professional career in Cuba and Japan, so he’s not entirely unfamiliar with the position, but he conceded there’s an adjustment period as he tries to acclimate to the infield dirt.

“Right now, it’s just an adjustment. I can’t say I feel completely comfortable, but I’m working on feeling comfortable again there,” the 25-year-old told reporters via interpreter over the weekend (link via Merkin). “I’ll play wherever they want me to play. What I want is just to play baseball.” Colás isn’t going to be an everyday option there but could offer cover for Andrew Vaughn over the course of the season if the Sox trust him for regular season work.

Dylan Cease Discusses Trade Candidacy

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White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has been among the most widely-discussed potential trade chips of the offseason. At the start of the winter, it was widely expected that the 28-year-old would find himself in a new uniform by the time Opening Day rolled around. After all, newly-installed GM Chris Getz has not been shy about the club’s willingness to move Cease ever since declaring that the club had no untouchables at the start of the offseason, and Cease garnered plenty of interest from pitching-hungry clubs such as the Dodgers, Reds, Orioles, and Yankees throughout the winter.

Since then, however, Cease’s trade candidacy has seemed to lose some steam. Reporting has indicated that Getz set a hefty asking price for Cease’s services and has remained firmly entrenched at that level throughout the winter. Meanwhile, several potential suitors have moved on to other solutions: the Orioles acquired Corbin Burnes from the Brewers, the Reds and Yankees landed Frankie Montas and Marcus Stroman respectively via free agency, while the Dodgers assembled a new-look rotation led by Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. All this has led Getz to suggest that he expects Cease to be the club’s Opening Day starter when the season begins in late March, while the right-hander recently told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that he’s begun to search for apartments in Chicago in case he remains with the White Sox through Opening Day.

None of that is to say the door has been completely shut on the possibility of a trade, of course. After all, it’s nearly impossible to imagine Chicago deciding to retain Cease long term, with Cease himself recently confirming to reporters (including James Fegan of Sox Machine) that there have been no conversations between him and the club regarding the possibility of an extension. That’s hardly a surprise, as Nightengale relays that the White Sox have already informed Cease of their intention to trade him once a team meets their asking price, though no team has done so to this point. While recent injury news regarding Baltimore righty Kyle Bradish sparked some speculation that the Orioles would look to reignite the stalled trade talks, Getz himself indicated to Nightengale that the they’ve made no such overture regarding Cease to this point.

For Cease’s part, he’s indicated that he doesn’t have a strong preference regarding when or if he’s traded, telling reporters (as relayed by Fegan) that he loves Chicago but is “intrigued” by the possibility of playing for a contender.

“There are a lot of positives about staying here… I like the city of Chicago,” Cease told Nightengale. He then acknowledged that the situation is a “win-win,” adding that “It’s an honor to be wanted, and feel wanted. It’s hard to beat the feeling that you’re a difference-maker.”

Cease also made clear that his uncertain future won’t impact his preparation for the coming season, telling Nightengale that he “tries not to over-focus on it” and that he plans “to be a part of the team and enjoy everybody” while he’s still in the organization. Both Getz and manager Pedro Grifol echoed that sentiment while praising Cease for maintaining a strong presence in the White Sox clubhouse this spring despite the trade buzz surrounding the 28-year-old.

Per Nightengale, the White Sox prefer to deal Cease before Opening Day, though it’s worth noting that top free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still looking to find new homes of their own in a market without many publicly known suitors for front-of-the-rotation arms. While it’s certainly not impossible to imagine Cease’s market heating up once Snell and Montgomery sign, as Nightengale suggests as a possibility, it’s fair to wonder whether or not clubs that have to this point refused to make an overwhelming financial offer to Snell or Montgomery would feel additional motivation to make an overwhelming prospect offer to the White Sox in order to land Cease once the aforementioned duo comes off the board.

That could leave the Sox to carry Cease into the season in hopes that his trade value could increase ahead of the trade deadline this summer. It’s easy to imagine that coming to pass, should Cease return to the form he flashed in 2022 after a down season in 2023. Cease dominated to the tune of a 2.20 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 2022, finishing second in AL Cy Young award voting behind only future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. Cease’s star faded somewhat last season, however, as the right-hander struggled to a 4.58 ERA that was actually just below league average by measure of ERA+ despite a solid 3.72 FIP.

Should Cease return to form in the first half this year, it’s easy to imagine a club meeting Getz’s reportedly exorbitant demand over the summer, once they have more certainty regarding both Cease’s own performance and their own odds of contention, with that being said, a first-half performance reminiscent of his 2023 campaign could work in the opposite direction, to say nothing of the risk that Cease suffers an injury before he can be dealt, leaving the White Sox without their top trade chip as they look to retool following a 101-loss season.

Getz: White Sox Expect Cease To Be Opening Day Starter

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Trade chatter on White Sox ace Dylan Cease has died down over the past month amid reports that first-year general manager Chris Getz has set an extremely high asking price and has shown no willingness to back down, even as the season draws nearer. Getz himself threw more cold water on the possibility of trading Cease today, plainly telling the Sox beat: “I expect [Cease] to be our Opening Day starter” (X link via Chuck Garfien of NBC Sports Chicago).

Like the majority of baseball executives, Getz didn’t speak in absolutes. There’s always the chance of a late offer that’s simply too good to turn down — particularly if a contending team loses a starting pitcher to a long-term injury this spring and feels emboldened to make a trade that was previously deemed too costly.

That said, Getz also didn’t need to go out of his way to frame it as likely that Cease would be on the Opening Day roster, either. Choosing to voice that is a firmer stance than speaking in generalities about remaining open-minded and considering all avenues. That’s the route Getz took just one month ago, publicly stating that a Cease trade could potentially come in the offseason, at the deadline or even at an atypical time like May or June, if the right offer presented itself then.

Entering the offseason, Cease stood out as one of the likeliest trade candidates on the market. The White Sox fired longtime GM Rick Hahn and executive vice president Kenny Williams last summer, promoting Getz from assistant GM. He began the offseason making clear that the Sox would be open for business, even going so far as to candidly state, “I don’t like our team.” The South Siders have indeed proven active, trading relievers Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos, acquiring young outfielder Dominic Fletcher and swinging a trade for veteran catcher Max Stassi.

Many of the Sox’ dealings have focused on improving the defense; Getz said in today’s media session that early talks with free agent pitchers this winter showed a reluctance to sign in Chicago because of the team’s poor glovework (X link via CHGO’s Vinnie Duber). Recognizing that limitation, Getz acquired Nicky Lopez and glove-first infield prospect Braden Shewmake (in the Bummer deal), signed Paul DeJong, and landed a pair of catchers with good defensive reputations (Stassi and free agent Martin Maldonado). Fletcher, acquired from the D-backs in exchange for pitching prospect Christian Mena, is regarded as a plus defender at all three outfield spots.

Amid all that roster shuffling, there was a general expectation that Cease would eventually be moved. That no longer seems nearly so certain. There’s clear risk in hanging onto the 28-year-old righty. A spring or early-season injury could prove catastrophic for the Sox, tanking the value of their clear best trade chip. At the same time, trading Cease this summer won’t necessarily reduce the asking price, particularly if teams simply weren’t putting forth compelling packages for him this winter.

Cease is coming off a pedestrian 4.58 ERA, but he’s only one season removed from a runner-up showing on the AL Cy Young ballot, when he pitched 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball. His strikeout rate and velocity both dipped a bit in ’23 from their ’22 levels, and he gave up more hard contact than usual. The extent to which those red flags combined to impact offers for him can’t be known, but if Cease can come out looking like the 2022 version of himself, it’s conceivable he could even command more near the deadline — particularly since the supply of starting pitching will be much smaller than in the offseason, when there’s a wide bank of free agents to consider.

Cease is controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration. He and the White Sox agreed to a one-year, $8MM deal earlier this winter, avoiding an arb hearing in the process. The right-hander leads all of Major League Baseball with 109 starts dating back to the 2020 season. In that time, Cease sports a 3.58 ERA with a 28.5% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate, 36.5% ground-ball rate and 1.03 HR/9.

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