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MLBTR Podcast: Walk-Year Performances, Roman Anthony’s Extension, And More!

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Should Tigers fans be nervous? Is the club worse off going into next year? Should they trade Tarik Skubal this winter? (38:55)
  • The Mets didn’t trade Mark Vientos at the deadline and Pete Alonso is trending towards opting out. Will the Mets move on from Alonso this time? (51:05)
  • The teams that are considering six-man rotations, should they piggyback two of them in one game? (57:20)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Eric Hartline, Imagn Images

No Dylan Cease Trade Between Astros, Padres

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5:06pm: Houston did not get a Cease deal done, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic.

3:49pm: The Astros’ monster deadline may not be finished. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Houston is “working hard” to try to land Dylan Cease. Jon Heyman of The New York Post writes that talks between the clubs are “progressing” and suggests the Astros could try to get a reliever in the deal as well. There’s no suggestion an agreement has been reached nor that a trade is inevitable, but Houston certainly appears to be trying to get another massive deal over the finish line.

Cease remains one of the biggest wild cards of deadline season. San Diego is trying to balance things financially while taking a few massive swings of their own today. They’ve already added Mason Miller, JP Sears, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramón Laureano, Freddy Fermin and Will Wagner. That takes care of their biggest needs — left field, DH, catcher, backup infielder — but hasn’t halted talks on Cease. He’s owed $13.75MM in his final arbitration season.

Padres Leaning Towards Holding Robert Suarez

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The Padres just landed a superstar reliever in the biggest move of deadline season. Mason Miller’s presence theoretically gives the Padres more freedom to trade incumbent closer Robert Suarez in the next three hours. That doesn’t appear to be the team’s plan, though.

Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune and Dennis Lin of The Athletic each wrote this afternoon that the Friars were leaning towards holding Suarez. Both reports note that they’re still entertaining a trade of impending free agent starter Dylan Cease. Suarez is likely to hit free agency this winter as well. He’s expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract. Cease is a pure rental who is making $13.75MM.

Suarez’s opt-out makes him a more complicated trade candidate. Other teams could have trepidation about the possibility of a late-season injury that causes him to bypass the out chance. That’s something they’d want to price into the prospect return they’re offering San Diego. It could explain why the Padres don’t appear to have found much traction on a return they consider compelling. Instead, they seem inclined to stick with a monster bullpen including Miller, Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam and Adrian Morejon to shorten games for what they hope will be a deep playoff run.

The focus now appears to be on an outfielder. San Diego has reportedly addressed their catching need by landing Freddy Fermin from Kansas City for back-end starters Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. They still need to add a left fielder; Acee writes that acquiring a right-hand hitting outfielder would be ideal.

Astros Interested In Sandy Alcantara

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The Astros and Marlins are discussing a trade that would send Sandy Alcantara to Houston, according to reporter Michael Schwab.  “Both sides are serious and interested,” as per Schwab, but there isn’t any indication that a deal is close to happening.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale regards Houston’s interest in Alcantara as a bit of a pivot, as talks with the Padres about Dylan Cease “have cooled.”

Alcantara missed the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery, and his return to action this year has been mixed at best.  The right-hander has a 6.36 ERA over 109 innings, with lot of hard contact allowed and a 16.8% strikeout rate that would represent a career low.  There have been a few flashes of vintage Alcantara, and his last two starts have seen the former NL Cy Young Award winner toss 12 innings with only a single unearned run allowed.  Alcantara’s fastball is still averaging 97.5mph, which is down from the 98mph he averaged during the 2021-23 seasons, yet that isn’t an egregious drop considering the righty’s long layoff.

As perhaps the top premium trade chip the Marlins have left after their latest fire sale, Alcantara’s shaky performance represents a challenge for the front office.  The Fish could simply wait until the offseason to try and re-visit trade talks, perhaps after Alcantara has posted better numbers in the final two months to boost his value.  Or, the Marlins could trade Alcantara before tomorrow’s deadline if a rival team comes close to matching (or even matches) what was surely a high initial asking price for the hurler’s services.

Despite Alcantara’s struggles, the Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, and Padres remained linked to his trade market.  San Diego’s interest is related to the Cease talks, as the speculation has been that the Padres could both deal Cease (an impending free agent) to address multiple roster needs, while then adding another starting pitcher either as part of the return for Cease for in another deal altogether.

Cease was reportedly the Astros’ top deadline target, so this turn towards Alcantara could represent a number of things.  It could be simply due diligence on Houston’s part, or a sign that the talks with San Diego are going nowhere because the Padres wish to retain Cease, or perhaps a sign that the Padres are more motivated to send Cease elsewhere.

Whereas Cease is a rental, Alcantara is controlled through the 2027 season.  He is owed the remainder of his $17MM salary for 2025, $17MM more in 2026, and Miami has a $21MM club option for 2027 that contains a $2MM buyout.  Adding Alcantara over Cease would be a whole new financial ballgame for the Astros, who made an effort to stay under the luxury tax threshold this past winter.

With the Mariners and Rangers charging hard in the AL West race, Astros owner Jim Crane may be willing to pay into the tax again in order to give his team some much-needed reinforcements.  If the pre-TJ version of Alcantara emerges, his salary suddenly looks like a relative bargain for a frontline pitcher.  Framber Valdez is also a free agent after the season, so the Astros could view Alcantara as a longer-term replacement if Valdez walks.

Astros Interested In Dylan Cease

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TODAY: Cease is the Astros’ “main target,” a source tells MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

JULY 29: The Astros have Padres right-hander Dylan Cease atop their deadline wish list, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Houston is also known to be looking for a bat and the report lists Willi Castro of the Twins, Jesús Sánchez of the Marlins and Jake McCarthy of the Diamondbacks as names the Astros are considering. MLBTR covered Houston’s interested in Castro earlier this week.

The Houston rotation has had a rough go in terms of health this year. They started the season with Luis Garcia, J.P. France and Cristian Javier on the injured list due to surgeries in previous years. They’re all still on the shelf. Since the start of the season, Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski have required Tommy John surgery, putting them out for the rest of the year. Spencer Arrighetti suffered a fractured thumb in a freak accident, getting hit during batting practice, and has been out for almost three months now. In the past two weeks, Lance McCullers Jr. hit the IL with a blister and Brandon Walter was sidelined by elbow inflammation.

They still have a strong one-two punch atop the rotation with Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown but things get dicey after that. Currently, Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto and Jason Alexander are filling in. The Astros will naturally want to add some arms and push those guys down the depth chart. It’s possible they could get some guys off the IL in the coming months, but it’s understandable that they don’t want to rely on that.

Cease has been one of the most reliable pitchers in the game. Since getting promoted in 2019, he hasn’t gone on the injured list, apart from a two-day stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season. He has made at least 32 starts in each full season since. He’s already up to 22 this year.

That reliability would certainly be attractive to the Astros amid all the injuries, though the quality has often been quite strong as well, as Cease has regularly struck out roughly 30% of batters faced. His earned run average has oscillated over the years thanks to some wobbles in his batting average on balls in play, strand rate and home run rate. His advanced metrics have held more steady. For his career, he has a 3.69 FIP and 3.82. In a full season, he’s never had a SIERA higher than 4.10 or a FIP higher than 3.72.

This year’s 4.79 ERA in on the high side, though at least part of that seems to be beyond Cease’s control. His .323 BABIP, 68.5% strand rate and 13.3% homer to fly ball rate are all to the unfortunate side. His 3.64 FIP and 3.37 SIERA suggest he’s largely been the same guy as in previous seasons. His ERA is also inflated a bit by a nine-run shellacking in his third start of the year.

Though Cease makes plenty of sense for the Astros on the field, there are other matters to consider. He is making $13.75MM this year, which leaves about $4.5MM left to be paid out. The Astros have clearly tried to avoid the competitive balance tax this year, dumping money in the offseason by trading Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly. RosterResource currently pegs the club’s CBT number at $236MM, just $5MM from the base threshold of the tax. That’s just an estimate and it might be off by a few million in either direction.

Perhaps the Astros can add Cease and stay under the line but they also want to add a bat, which could make it tricky. On the other hand, the report from The Athletic suggests that owner Jim Crane likes star players and might be willing to cross the line in order to get someone like Cease. He was reportedly willing to cross the line in the offseason in order to re-sign Alex Bregman, though Bregman ultimately landed with the Red Sox.

The Astros will also have to offer the Padres something they would like. The Friars aren’t selling in the commonly understood sense. Their plan with dealing Cease is to perhaps save some money, add a left fielder or a catcher, or prospects, or some combination of those goals. They could then use either the prospects or the saved money to acquire another starting pitching to replace Cease.

Houston doesn’t have a strong farm system, so perhaps the prospect part will be hard for them to pull off, though they could help out in some of the other areas. Catcher Victor Caratini is having a good year, though Yainer Diaz is struggling, so perhaps the Astros wouldn’t want to part with Caratini. Though if they did, Caratini is making $6MM this year, so flipping him would give the Astros some extra CBT space.

In the outfield, the Astros are currently without Jake Meyers and Yordan Alvarez. Their current mix includes Cam Smith, Taylor Trammell, Jose Altuve, Jacob Melton, Cooper Hummel and Chas McCormick. Houston’s not giving a ton of playing time to McCormick, who has some decent seasons on his track record. However, he hasn’t been good for a couple of years now, so the Padres probably don’t have too much interest. Trammell has been hitting well lately but while striking out in more than 30% of his plate appearances. Hummel has been DFA fodder all year. Altuve and Smith aren’t going anywhere. Melton might be hard to pry loose because he hits left-handed, something the Astros lack, and is covering center field with Meyers out.

The report from The Athletic points out that the Astros traded three notable prospects to get a rental pitcher at last year’s deadline, flipping Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner to the Jays for Yusei Kikuchi. Perhaps they could do so again, though it’s unclear if they have the farm system to do it.

If they have some guys the Padres like, it’s theoretically possible that the Friars could then use those guys to upgrade elsewhere. A sequence of events like this helped them land Cease in the first place. They traded Juan Soto to the Yankees for a bunch of pitchers, including Michael King and Drew Thorpe. They then quickly put Thorpe in a package to send to the White Sox to get Cease. Perhaps the Astros can make it work but they will have competition. Cease has also been connected to the Mets, Cubs, Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees.

As for the hitters, the Astros have also suffered a number of injuries to the lineup. As mentioned, Alvarez and Meyers are on the shelf, as well as shortstop Jeremy Peña, third baseman Isaac Paredes and others. Astros general manager Dana Brown has said the club would love to get a lefty bat, ideally one who could play the infield and/or left field. Players like Altuve, Mauricio Dubón and Zack Short have some defensive versatility, giving the Astros a bit of flexibility in what kind of bat they add.

Sánchez has been a roughly league average bat in his time with the Marlins. He has a .243/.310/.425 career batting line and a wRC+ of exactly 100. He is making $4.5MM this year, which leaves about $1.5MM left to be paid out. He can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons. He’s been far better against righties in his career, which could appeal to Houston. He has a .179/.228/.287 slash against southpaws but a .258/.330/.459 line otherwise. The rebuilding Marlins likely aren’t clinging too tightly to him.

McCarthy has been good in the past but not this year. He slashed .285/.349/.400 for a 110 wRC+ in 2024, also adding 25 steals and quality defense. This year, he has a brutal .158/.232/.277 line and was sent to the minors for a few months. He did hit well in Triple-A, slashing .314/.401/.440, so perhaps the Astros see a path to getting him back on track. He still hasn’t qualified for arbitration and is being paid around the league minimum, which would be attractive for the Astros.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Padres Interested In Mason Miller, Continuing To Pursue Jarren Duran

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The Padres continue to lurk on some of the top potential trade candidates. Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic wrote this afternoon that San Diego remains enamored with Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran. Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic write that the Friars are involved on Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan as well. Lin and Rosenthal also report that the Padres have interest in A’s flamethrower Mason Miller.

Miller remains a long shot trade candidate but would be one of the most impactful arms available if the A’s seriously consider dealing him. Rosenthal reported this afternoon that the Phillies, Mets and Yankees had all been in touch with the A’s. The Phils and Mets were evidently deterred by the asking price. Philadelphia went on to acquire Jhoan Duran, while the Mets added Ryan Helsley. The Yankees have not pivoted to a different late-game weapon. However, SNY’s Andy Martino suggested this evening that the A’s asking price was high enough that talks with the Yanks had yet to become especially serious.

The Padres have two prospects on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 update: infielder Leo De Vries at #5 and catcher Ethan Salas at #65. They’d previously been reluctant to part with either player. Salas’ stock has dipped in recent months, largely because of a back injury that has kept him on the minor league injured list since late April. Salas is still a very good prospect, but De Vries is the clear top talent in the system.

San Diego could have a tough time acquiring an impact player with multiple years of control unless they’re willing to put De Vries on the table. Rosenthal and Lin write that the Padres are at least willing to discuss De Vries and Salas in trade conversations. It stands to reason they’d prefer to build a package around the latter, but his injury might make that difficult right now.

MassLive’s Sean McAdam suggested last week that the Red Sox rebuffed a framework built around Salas and Dylan Cease in talks on Jarren Duran. McCaffrey suggested today that Boston would be more open to building a Duran package around Cease and De Vries. That might be a bridge too far for San Diego.

The Padres’ interest in Miller comes as the Friars are simultaneously considering trading away MLB pitching. They’ve been open to offers on Cease for a few days, listening on the impending free agent starter while separately acquiring controllable pitching. There’d be a similar logic in shopping closer Robert Suarez, who may opt out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract. Jon Heyman of The New York Post relayed this morning that Suarez is indeed in play in talks with other clubs. (As impending free agents, neither Cease nor Suarez would be of any interest to the A’s.)

San Diego could try to arrange a Suarez deal while making a push for Miller to replace him in the ninth inning. Rosenthal and Lin also float the possibility of the Padres stretching Miller back out as a starting pitcher. That’d be a very difficult ask midseason but could be more viable next spring. Miller moved to the bullpen because of a concerning injury history that included shoulder and elbow issues. Throwing as hard as he does puts plenty of stress on a pitcher’s arm. Still, the upside of returning Miller to a rotation role would be tantalizing. The Padres have had success with Seth Lugo, Michael King and (to a much lesser extent) Stephen Kolek as reliever to rotation conversions. Cease and King are impending free agents, and there’s not much in the way of controllable starting pitching to go around.

None of this is to say that San Diego making a blockbuster acquisition is likely. The A’s control Miller for four and a half seasons. They’re not going to trade him for anything less than a monster haul. It’d take a bigger return than what the Phillies sent to Minnesota for two and a half years of control over Jhoan Duran: top 100 catching prospect Eduardo Tait and young starter Mick Abel. That’s probably also true for Jarren Duran and Kwan, All-Star caliber outfielders who are controllable for multiple seasons. A lot could hinge on De Vries, but if the Padres are genuinely willing to consider dealing one of the 10 or so best prospects in the sport, that’d open plenty of opportunities for a huge swing.

Padres Getting Interest In Stephen Kolek, Ryan Bergert

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It wouldn’t be trade deadline season with Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller exploring a variety of creative deals. San Diego is reportedly open to offers on right-hander Dylan Cease while simultaneously showing interest in other short-term veterans to backfill his spot in the rotation. They’re also getting trade inquiries on young righties Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Pitching prospects Henry Baez and Braden Nett are also among the names on which other clubs have expressed interest.

Kolek, 28, was a Rule 5 pick back in 2023 and stuck with the Friars in a bullpen role all last year. He’s moved into the rotation this season and given San Diego 13 starts and 73 2/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball. Kolek doesn’t miss many bats (17.3% strikeout rate, 7.7% swinging-strike rate) but has good command (7.4% walk rate) and keeps the ball on the ground (50.4%). He’s given up plenty of hard contact, but his lack of fly-balls has helped to keep the home runs down.

It’s not the flashiest profile, but if another club buys into Kolek as a roughly league-average starter in his second pre-arbitration season — with four years of club control remaining after the current campaign — there’s some value in that skill set. Controllable starting pitching is always in demand, and while he’s not necessarily an electric young arm with big velocity and strikeout numbers, Kolek has more than held his own in 2025 and still has two minor league option years remaining after this season.

The 25-year-old Bergert is younger and also in the first of three option years. He entered the season ranked among San Diego’s top 15 prospects or so and has elevated his status with a nice showing in Triple-A El Paso and a promising start to his big league career.

In 44 2/3 Triple-A frames, Bergert carries a 4.03 ERA with a 22.6% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 45% grounder rate. The Padres gave him his big league debut in late April, and he’s since appeared in a total of 10 games — six of them starts. Bergert has impressed with a 2.84 earned run average, 23.1% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate. He’s primarily a fastball/slider pitcher with a show-me changeup and sinker that he’s used less than 8% of the time each.

Trading either Bergert or Kolek could help the Padres reel in a veteran bat in left field or behind the plate — or it could simply bring back multiple prospects who could be redirected to those trade efforts. Bergert, who was optioned earlier this month, has spent enough time in the minors that he still has a full six years of club control beyond the current season. As with Kolek, he’s not necessarily the potential high-end young starter teams covet, but he has the makings of a useful back-end starter who could in theory be plugged right into a new team’s rotation.

As for the 22-year-old Baez and 23-year-old Nett, they’re both pitching in the Double-A rotation and posting strong numbers. Baez doesn’t throw as hard or miss as many bats but has better command with higher ground-ball totals. He’s already on the 40-man roster. Nett has more velocity and a strikeout rate that’s a couple percentage points higher than his teammate but also a walk rate pushing 11%. He’d be Rule 5-eligible this winter and seems likely to be selected to the 40-man before then. Either could be a plausible option for a big league club by next season, so it’s hardly surprising to see teams poking around both pitchers.

Red Sox Unlikely To Trade Jarren Duran This Summer

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With a 55-49 record and a seat at the Wild Card table, the Red Sox have seemingly played themselves out of selling this summer even after trading former franchise face Rafael Devers to the Giants last month. There’s been plenty of speculation about the possibility that they could trade from their glut of outfield talent and move Jarren Duran, but it seems as though that might not be in the cards—for now, at least. ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote that the Red Sox might more or less stand pat this summer, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post noted that Boston is “believed” to be unlikely to move Duran despite considerable interest from the Padres.

Sean McAdam of MassLive provides further details on the situation surrounding Duran. He suggests that while a deal involving Duran is “likely” at some point, the Red Sox are inclined to hold off on making such a deal until the offseason. McAdam then goes on to note that the Padres offered Boston a three-player package of right-hander Dylan Cease, top catching prospect Ethan Salas, and an additional prospect not named Leo De Vries that was “quickly rejected.” That’s a fairly significant offer, particularly given the fact that the Red Sox had reportedly expressed interest in Cease previously in conversations with San Diego this summer.

Duran’s in the midst of a decent season but has taken a massive step back from his All-Star 2024 campaign that ended with an eighth place finish in a crowded NL MVP race. This year, Duran has hit just .254/.321/.428 with a wRC+ of 104 and below average defense in the outfield. While the Padres clearly still believe in the upside they saw when he put together a 6.8 fWAR, 8.7 bWAR season last year given their offer of a longtime top prospect and a front-of-the-rotation rental, it’s possible that the Red Sox are hoping for a strong second half from Duran that can raise his value headed into the offseason and potentially get the attention of other clubs besides San Diego.

Perhaps the Red Sox were willing to reject that offer from San Diego in part because the players they’d be acquiring are in the midst of down seasons themselves. Cease has long been viewed as one of the sport’s most talented pitchers, but he’s posted a 4.59 ERA that’s actually 10% worse than league average by ERA+ across 21 starts this year. His peripheral numbers remain strong and some of his poor season-long numbers can be attributed to a nine-run, four-inning implosion at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento back in April. Even so, Cease doesn’t carry the same surefire ace pedigree he would have had even one season ago. Salas is in no better shape, having been sidelined by a stress fracture in his back for most of 2025 following a tough season at the High-A level last year.

While the Padres have been frequently connected to Duran for quite some time now, they’re far from the only team for whom he’d be an excellent fit. The Phillies have a major hole in left field, the Astros are in desperate need of a left-handed bat to help balance their lineup, the Royals are in clear need of help all around the outfield, and even non-contending clubs in need of offense like the Pirates could make sense as a suitor for Duran given that he won’t reach free agency until after the 2028 season. That’s hardly an exhaustive list of teams that could make sense as a fit for Duran, as his combination of upside and long period of team control could make him attractive for virtually any team that isn’t already stacked with outfield talent themselves.

Blue Jays, Rays Among Teams Showing Interest In Dylan Cease

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Earlier this week, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that the Padres had discussed Dylan Cease with multiple AL East teams in addition to the Mets and Cubs. It seems the interest from the AL East has come from every contending club in that division. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees have all checked in with the Friars to express interest.

The Cease rumors have picked up steam over the past few days. It’d be unconventional for a team that presently occupies the National League’s final playoff spot to trade one of its two best healthy starters. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never shied away from big swings, though, and they’re seemingly considering the idea of trading Cease for young talent while reallocating payroll room and prospects to different available starters. Dennis Lin of The Athletic reported last night that they’re among the teams that have been in touch with the Marlins regarding Sandy Alcantara, for instance.

Cease is an impending free agent who is playing on a $13.75MM salary. He’s a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer if the Padres hold him all season. As a luxury tax payor, they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the 2026 draft. That’s worth far less than they’d receive if they traded him, though they need to balance that against the hit it’d deal to the rotation for the stretch run.

The 29-year-old Cease is incredibly durable and has pitched at a top-of-the-rotation level in previous seasons. His near-30% strikeout rate and 97 MPH average fastball still point to that ceiling, but he hasn’t managed particularly strong results this year. He carries a 4.59 earned run average across 113 2/3 innings. Some of that can be traced to a nine-run drubbing at the hands of the A’s in their extremely hitter-friendly park in Sacramento back in April. That’s hardly the sole factor, though. Cease got on a decent run after that outing but has allowed a 5.21 ERA over his most recent seven starts.

Even if this hasn’t been a banner year, Cease’s track record and stuff would make him an extremely desirable trade target. He’d be the best rental rotation arm available, and teams would still view him as a surefire playoff starter. The Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays are all known to be in the starting pitching market. New York has a strong 1-2 in Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, but Luis Gil is a health question mark and they lost Clarke Schmidt to Tommy John surgery. Boston would certainly benefit from adding another high-end starter to pair with Cease’s former White Sox teammate, Garrett Crochet. Toronto’s veteran-laden rotation lacks a true top-end starter, and they’ve already been tied to some of the higher upside trade candidates like Edward Cabrera and Mitch Keller.

The Rays would be the most surprising entrant into this group, though Tampa Bay tends to at least kick the tires on big names even if they don’t often land them. They’re a game and a half back of Boston in the Wild Card race. They’d have little hope of re-signing Cease, and a big push for a rental when they’re a bubble team seems unlikely. Tampa Bay could trade a starter like Taj Bradley or Zack Littell in the coming days; they’re also hopeful of getting Shane McClanahan back in the final two months.

San Diego awaits the return of one of their own top starters. Michael King has been out for more than two months with a nerve injury in his shoulder. He’s targeting a mid-August comeback. As of now, he’d team with Cease, Nick Pivetta and potentially Yu Darvish in a playoff rotation. That’s not a terrible group, but both Cease and King are months from free agency. Pivetta can opt out after next season, and Darvish is approaching his 39th birthday. Even with Joe Musgrove returning from Tommy John surgery next year, the long-term rotation picture is cloudy. They could try to thread the needle of acquiring a controllable arm while shipping Cease out.

Padres Among Teams Interested In Sandy Alcantara

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As the Padres gear up for a deadline that seems like it’ll see them operate on both the buying and selling side of the market, they’ve reached out to the Marlins to inquire about right-hander Sandy Alcantara, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic.

San Diego’s interest in Alcantara comes less than 24 hours after it was reported that they’ve been willing to discuss fellow righty Dylan Cease with other clubs. Lin adds that he’s heard similarly. Both right-handers have underperformed this season but feature strong track records and power arsenals. Shipping out an underperforming former Cy Young finalist to bring in an underperforming former Cy Young winner might seem like shuffling the deck chairs, but there’s typically a method to president of baseball operations A.J. Preller’s deadline madness.

Cease is earning $13.75MM in his final season of club control before reaching free agency. Alcantara is earning $17MM this season and is signed for the same amount in 2026, with a $21MM club option for the 2027 season. If the Padres were to trade Cease and acquire Alcantara, they would essentially be swapping out — not directly for one another, of course — two pitchers of comparable upside but coming away with the one who provides rotation stability beyond the current season.

As ever, there are roadblocks to be considered. The Padres’ baseball operations staff isn’t believed to have much financial flexibility at its disposal presently. That was a key driver in their frugal slate of offseason signings (e.g. Jason Heyward, Connor Joe, Elias Diaz, Martin Maldonado, Jose Iglesias), and it’s also a factor in why they’re listening to offers on Cease in the first place.

Even if they were to trade Cease and the entirety of his remaining salary, turning and adding Alcantara would add about $1.153MM onto the current payroll — and do so at a time when the Padres are also looking for help in left field and behind the plate. That said, the Marlins were willing to pay down virtually all of Luis Arraez’s salary when they lined up with the Padres on a May 2024 trade. Doing so allowed Miami to ask for more talent in exchange and allowed the Padres to get the player they coveted even in the face of payroll constraints from ownership. They could try a similar path here.

That brings up a potentially even more prominent roadblock: a thin farm system. San Diego’s prospect cache has been repeatedly leveraged to acquire veteran players over the years and left the team with a top-heavy system. Shortstop Leo De Vries and catcher Ethan Salas are considered among the sport’s very best young talents. The Padres are ostensibly loath to part with either, and the rest of the system is less compelling.

Trading Cease could help in that regard. Even with the right-hander falling shy of his prior standards this season, he’s still averaging better than 97 mph on his heater and missing bats at an elite level. He’d surely command a notable return. It’s possible Cease could be swapped out for big league help at another position of need (e.g. the previously referenced left field or catcher), but a contending club would likely be reluctant to give the Padres a big league outfielder or catcher in exchange for a rental arm. A trade for prospects would be more straightforward, and because the Padres are a luxury tax payor, there’s incentive to move him rather than make a qualifying offer. Their CBT status would drop the compensation for Cease from a pick after the first round to a pick after the fourth.

Speculatively speaking, the Padres can look to find a trade partner for Cease while in the same breath using some of that return to help pry Alcantara loose from Miami. They could potentially even structure it as a three-team trade, though that’s not necessary. They went through a similar sequence in the 2023-24 offseason when trading Juan Soto to the Yankees for a prospect package headlined by right-hander Drew Thorpe, only to turn and trade Thorpe to the White Sox a couple months later as part of the package to acquire Cease.

Adding Alcantara would be of extra importance to the Padres because of that remaining club control. Both Cease and Michael King are free agents at season’s end. Next year’s rotation outlook currently includes Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish (in his age-39 season), Joe Musgrove (in his return from Tommy John surgery) and some combination of Randy Vasquez, Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert. Pivetta can opt out of his contract after the 2026 season.

Whether some form of Cease/Alcantara shell game comes to fruition or not, the mere fact that the Padres are looking into the possibility serves as a prominent reminder of the type of frenetic dealing that has become a hallmark of the Preller-led Padres this time of year. With several holes on the roster, a tight payroll and a farm system that could work against them, the stage appears to be set for another July of creative dealing from the Padres.

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