Williamson, Lowder, Burns Make Reds’ Roster
The Reds will open the season with six starters on the major league roster, manager Terry Francona announced (via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). With Hunter Greene out until midseason, Cincinnati had three rotation locks: Opening Day starter Andrew Abbott, fellow lefty Nick Lodolo and veteran right-hander Brady Singer. Lefty Brandon Williamson and righties Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder have all secured roster spots as well. The Reds won’t use a straight six-man rotation but will deploy the Burns/Lowder/Williamson trio in a to-be-determined capacity.
Charlie Goldsmith of FOX 19 writes that the Reds have labeled the setup as a “condensed” six-man rotation. Abbott, Lodolo and Singer will start the first three games. A decision has yet to be made on which of Burns, Lowder and Williamson will start games four and five for the Reds. Whichever isn’t given a start will be available in long relief or tandem/piggyback fashion for the other two. Abbott will be back on the bump for Cincinnati’s sixth game of the season.
“You’ll see (Williamson) either potentially come in after Burns, or maybe even start a game and have Lowder do it (out of the bullpen),” Francona said (via Goldsmith). “I don’t think we feel the need to say it ahead of time as far as strategy goes. That’s kind of where we’re sitting. You’ll see (Williamson) pitch one of those two days (Game 4 or 5 of the season).”
Williamson, 28 next month, entered camp as a particular long shot to make the club. He’d pitched only 30 2/3 innings over the past two seasons combined — none in 2025. He missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery that was performed late in the 2024 campaign.
A former second-round pick by the Mariners, Williamson came to the Reds in the 2022 Eugenio Suárez/Jesse Winker trade. He’s pitched 131 1/3 big league innings with a 4.39 ERA to date but was a fairly well-regarded prospect with a solid minor league track record. Now healthy, Williamson has opened eyes in camp. He’s pitched 11 innings and held opponents to just two runs on only six hits and a pair of walks with 13 strikeouts (1.64 ERA, 31 K%, 4.8 BB%). He has a career 92.8 mph on his four-seamer but has been sitting 94.1 mph this spring (obviously not working as deep into games as he would in a regular season setting).
Burns and Lowder — particularly the former — seemed like much stronger rotation bets. Burns, the No. 2 overall pick in 2024, debuted last summer less than a year after being selected out of Wake Forest. The 6’3″ flamethrower obliterated minor league opposition, notching a 1.77 ERA, 36.8% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate in his first 13 pro starts before being summoned to the big leagues. Burns’ 4.57 ERA in 43 1/3 MLB frames last year, but much of the damage against him came early on. Burns was shredded for seven runs in just one-third of an inning against Boston in his second career start. He bounced back with a 3.32 ERA, 37.3% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate over his final 38 major league innings.
Lowder was the No. 7 overall pick just a year prior to Burns. Like Burns, he’s a Wake Forest product who made his MLB debut just a year after being drafted, in 2024. Lowder turned in a powerhouse 1.17 ERA in his first six MLB starts but did so with an underwhelming 17.2% strikeout rate and hefty 10.9% walk rate. His minor league work was terrific, however.
Both Burns and Lowder have had nice springs overall, though the Reds recently slowed Burns down a bit after he reported some range-of-motion issues to the club. Both promising young righties are viewed as critical long-term pieces in the rotation. It’s not entirely clear how this six-man setup will be resolved long-term. Francona told Goldsmith it’s a very short-term setup that probably won’t even last into late April. All three of Burns, Lowder and Williamson have multiple minor league option years remaining.
Francona also confirmed that reliever Connor Phillips and outfielder Will Benson have made the roster. Both have a minor league option remaining that, at least for now, won’t be used. The 24-year-old Phillips has had a rough spring, allowing seven runs in seven innings with an 18.8% walk rate, but he posted a 2.88 ERA while punching out nearly one-third of his opponents in 25 major league innings last year.
Benson has absolutely raked this spring, popping four homers and a double with as many walks as strikeouts (seven apiece) in 40 plate appearances. The 27-year-old is hitting .250/.400/.656 in 13 games. There’s no clear path to regular playing time with TJ Friedl, Noelvi Marte, JJ Bleday and Dane Myers also on the roster, but he’ll mix in as an occasional starter versus right-handed pitching and a lefty bat off the bench.
Reds Slow Chase Burns After Range Of Motion Issue
Reds right-hander Chase Burns tossed just 24 pitches in his spring outing on Friday, a significant step back from the 68 he threw in his previous appearance. The approach was intentional, manager Terry Francona told reporters, including Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19. Burns’ abbreviated outing came after he experienced a limited range of motion in his throwing arm earlier in the week. “We’re nipping this in the bud right now,” Francona said.
The fact that Burns was still able to take the ball on Friday suggests concern should be minor, but the issue could shape how the young righty is handled early in the season. Francona added that the Reds’ medical staff is putting together a routine to help Burns avoid the range of motion issue between starts moving forward.
Cincinnati has an opening in the rotation with ace Hunter Greene undergoing elbow surgery. Burns seemed to enter camp with the inside track for the fifth starter job, with Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson as his main competition. Chase Petty and Julian Aguiar were long-shot candidates, but both have been sent back to minor league camp. Now, two of Burns, Lowder, and Williamson have the chance to enter the regular season with starting roles alongside Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, and Brady Singer.
Burns was the consensus top prospect in the Reds system heading into last season. He didn’t disappoint when he got the call, striking out eight Yankees in his June debut. The young righty was obliterated by the Red Sox in his second start, skewing his final line, but he was mostly as advertised across 13 appearances. Burns finished the regular season with a massive 35.6% strikeout rate over 43 1/3 innings. His 2.68 xFIP and 2.76 SIERA were significantly lower than his ERA (4.57). Burns retired five straight Dodgers in his lone postseason appearance.
The short Spring Training outing isn’t the first time Burns’ workload has been capped after an injury. He went down with a flexor strain in August that cost him about a month. When he returned, the Reds used him strictly as a reliever. He maxed out at two innings and 36 pitches following the injury.
Williamson is coming back from an arm issue of his own. He missed all of 2025 due to UCL reconstruction. The lefty emerged as a consistent member of the Cincinnati rotation in 2023, making 23 starts. He dealt with multiple arm injuries the following year, which eventually resulted in surgery.
The Reds acquired Williamson as part of the package they received from the Mariners in exchange for Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker in March 2022. He doesn’t overwhelm with velocity, but he showed a deep arsenal in his 2023 stint with Cincinnati. Williamson made a pitch mix tweak in 2024, pushing his cutter usage from 29.8% to 44.9%. He was using it more than his fastball before the arm problems popped up. Opponents hit just .179 against the cutter in Williamson’s limited 2024 sample.
Lowder is right up there with Burns in terms of prospect pedigree. His career also got off to a similarly positive start, until an arm injury derailed him. Lowder was called up at the end of the 2024 campaign. He breezed to a 1.17 ERA over six starts with the Reds as a 22-year-old. A 4.38 xERA suggested Lowder had been pretty fortunate, but he entered last season with a good chance to contribute with the big-league club. Lowder hit the IL in late March with a forearm strain. He was limited to just 9 1/3 innings in the minors.
After Lowder struggled to miss bats in his initial big-league stint (17.2% strikeout rate), he’s been racking up punchouts. The righty had a 26.5% strikeout rate in his five rehab outings last year. He’s pushed it to 29.7% across three Spring Training appearances. Burns and Lowder could give the Reds some of the swing-and-miss ability they’ll be lacking while Greene is sidelined.
Photo courtesy of Frank Bowen IV of The Enquirer
Reds Notes: Hays, De La Cruz, Lowder
The Reds completed a four-game sweep of the Cubs over the weekend. They’ve won five straight and pulled into a tie with the reeling Mets for the National League’s last playoff spot. Cincinnati went 4-2 against New York, meaning they have the tiebreaker. They also hold the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, who find themselves one game back.
Cincinnati now controls their own destiny. They’re off tonight before hosting the Pirates for three games. They finish the year with a weekend set in Milwaukee. That’s a tough series on paper, but the Brewers could have already secured home field advantage through the postseason depending on the result of their ongoing series against the Padres.
As they enter that critical stretch, the Reds are facing a potential absence from their left fielder. Austin Hays made an early exit from Saturday’s game with back spasms. He sat out yesterday’s series finale. Manager Terry Francona said on Saturday the team is hopeful that Hays will be ready for the start of the Pittsburgh series tomorrow (via the MLB.com injury tracker). The off day gives him a little extra rest.
If Hays is unable to go, Cincinnati could kick Will Benson to left field and plug Noelvi Marte in right. Pittsburgh is set to run a trio of right-handed starting pitchers — Johan Oviedo, Paul Skenes and Braxton Ashcraft — against Cincinnati. Hays hits in the middle of the lineup regardless of handedness, but he does most of his damage against left-handers.
A bigger factor for Cincinnati is getting their franchise player on track. The Reds have made their push back into the playoff picture despite a disappointing stretch from Elly De La Cruz. The switch-hitting shortstop has hit .212/.271/.315 in almost 200 trips to the plate since the beginning of August. He homered off Porter Hodge on Friday, his first longball in more than six weeks. The slump got to a point where Francona felt he needed to drop De La Cruz in the batting order. He has hit sixth or seventh over the past week after operating as the team’s #3 hitter for the entire season.
De La Cruz still has decent numbers overall. He’s up to 20 homers with a .263/.336/.436 batting line across 673 plate appearances. He’s tied for sixth in MLB with 36 stolen bases. Yet he clearly hasn’t played to his potential over the past few weeks. C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic observed over the weekend that De La Cruz has played through a pair of leg injuries (quad and hamstring) while starting all but one of the team’s 156 games. He certainly won’t come out of the lineup at this stage of the season, but it’s possible he’s battling fatigue.
On the pitching side, rookie right-hander Rhett Lowder seems likely to miss the entire season. The 2023 seventh overall pick has been on the injured list all year because of forearm and oblique injuries. Lowder made a two-inning rehab appearance at Triple-A Louisville on September 13. MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes that he was scratched from his second scheduled rehab outing after feeling that his shoulder didn’t recover as hoped from the first.
Lowder has already undergone imaging that came back clean, but it’s yet another setback that makes it difficult to imagine him returning even if the Reds make a deep playoff run. The Triple-A season is over, so Lowder won’t get any more game action. The Wake Forest product impressed late last season, working to a 1.17 ERA through his first six MLB starts.
Reds Sign Wade Miley, Place Hunter Greene On Injured List
9:35am: Miley’s deal pays him a prorated $2.5MM salary in the majors and comes with an additional $1.5MM available via incentives, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.
8:57am: The Reds announced Wednesday that they’ve signed left-hander Wade Miley to a one-year, major league contract. The O’Connell Sports client recently opted out of a minor league deal with Cincinnati and briefly became a free agent, but he’s back in the fold and on the major league roster. To make room on the active roster, the Reds placed top starter Hunter Greene on the 15-day IL due to a groin strain. Top prospect Rhett Lowder, who’s been on the injured list all season due to a forearm strain, moves from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
Miley, 38, will return to the majors after a 14-month absence. The veteran southpaw made two starts for the Brewers last year but suffered a torn UCL during the second of those two outings. He openly contemplated retirement but wound up opting to undergo Tommy John surgery and give it one more go in the majors. He inked a minor league deal to return for a second stint with Cincinnati, where he pitched from 2020-21.
Miley’s 2025 season has been spent rehabbing from that UCL surgery. He’s had a rough stretch in the minors, though a disproportionate amount of the damage done against him came in his first game, when he yielded six runs in just 2 1/3 innings with the Reds’ High-A club. Some early rust is understandable, and while Miley hasn’t exactly dominated since that time, he’s pitched more effectively as he shakes off the rust. He’s lasted five innings in two of his past three starts, allowing two runs in one and keeping his opponents scoreless in the other. That pair of solid outings was encouraging, but they also bookended an ugly May 25 outing in which he allowed four runs and didn’t escape the first inning.
Overall, Miley has an 8.84 ERA on his rehab stint, but he’s been more good than bad recently. Clearly, the Reds felt his stuff looked good enough to place him onto the major league roster. They could’ve gone with top prospect Chase Petty or journeyman Aaron Wilkerson — both of whom are pitching well in Triple-A this season. Petty is already on the 40-man roster and has made a brief MLB debut already. Instead, Reds brass was encouraged enough by the work Miley has put in that they feel he merits a look in the majors.
Time will tell if Miley can still pitch effectively in the big leagues. He didn’t get much of a chance to do so in 2024 prior to that elbow injury, but from 2021-23, Miley logged a tidy 3.26 ERA across 320 1/3 innings between a trio of NL Central rivals: the Reds, Cubs and Brewers.
Getting back to that level is a tough ask for a 38-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery, but Cincinnati doesn’t need Miley to pitch like an ace. The Reds have received outstanding work from each of Greene (2.72 ERA in 59 2/3 innings), Andrew Abbott (1.51 ERA in 47 2/3 innings), Nick Lodolo (3.10 ERA in 69 2/3 innings) and Nick Martinez (3.89 ERA in 69 1/3 innings). If Miley can simply hold down the fort during Greene’s absence and pitch like a competent back-of-the-rotation arm, the Reds’ rotation would still be among the best in the sport.
Turning to the 25-year-old Greene, this will be his second IL stint of the season due to a groin injury. He missed two weeks in mid-May due to a similar injury. Greene was lifted from his most recent start due to recurring tightness, and he’ll now sit back down for at least another two weeks. He’s been among the best pitchers in the National League dating back to last year — combined 210 innings, 2.74 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate — making his recovery a particularly notable one for the Reds. He’s in the third season of a six-year, $53MM contract extension signed in April 2023.
As for Lowder, his move to the 60-day IL is largely procedural. He’s already spent more than 60 days on the injured list, and the shift from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL does not reset his eligibility for a return. The 2023 No. 7 overall pick went out on a rehab stint from the forearm injury that’s plagued him in mid-May and looked to be trending toward a return before he suffered an oblique strain during one of his rehab starts. The Reds have since shut him back down from throwing. It’s notable that Lowder’s arm appears to be healthy again, but he’ll need to let that oblique strain mend for at least another couple weeks before starting from scratch on a new minor league rehab stint.
Rhett Lowder Suffers Oblique Strain
The Reds received some difficult news on the pitching front this week. Rookie right-hander Rhett Lowder, who has been out all season with a forearm strain, suffered a new injury during a rehab start at Triple-A Louisville on Thursday.
Manager Terry Francona told reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) that Lowder sustained a “fairly significant” strain of his left oblique. Francona noted that the team still didn’t know the specific timeline as they awaited the results of imaging from Friday morning. In any case, it’s certainly going to delay his return to the big league rotation.
Lowder, 23, was the seventh overall pick in the 2023 draft. The Wake Forest product flew through the minors and received his first MLB call last August. That was motivated partially by injury, but he maintained his rotation spot through the end of the season and took the ball six times. Lowder managed a 1.17 ERA across his first 30 2/3 big league innings. His MLB strikeout and walk numbers weren’t nearly as impressive, but he’d fanned more than a quarter of opponents against a 5.4% walk rate over 22 minor league starts.
That positioned him to compete for a spot at the back of the rotation in Spring Training. Lowder reported some elbow soreness during his offseason throwing program, leading the Reds to slow-play him and have him begin the season on the injured list. They sent him to their Arizona complex on May 6. He made one High-A appearance five days later and jumped up to Louisville on May 16. Lowder only recorded one out and allowed four runs during his first start with the Bats. He suffered the injury yesterday on his first pitch of the second inning after tossing a scoreless frame in the first.
The Reds figure to pull Lowder off his current rehab assignment. They’ll probably move him to the 60-day injured list when they next need to create a 40-man roster spot. That would backdate to Opening Day and would not impact his eligibility for reinstatement beyond this weekend.
Rhett Lowder, Andrew Abbott Slightly Behind In Camp
A pair of Reds starters are slightly behind in the early portion of camp. The Reds revealed last week that rookie right-hander Rhett Lowder was delayed in January by minor elbow soreness that arose during his offseason work (relayed by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Meanwhile, lefty Andrew Abbott tells Mark Sheldon of MLB.com that he has taken things slowly after his ’24 season was cut short by a shoulder strain.
While any kind of elbow/shoulder soreness for a pitcher raises some alarm, the Reds don’t seem especially concerned by either injury. Lowder began a throwing program this morning (as noted by Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Abbott has thrown a couple bullpen sessions in the lead-up to Spring Training. He tells Sheldon that he’s likely to throw another bullpen session or two before facing hitters in a simulated game or batting practice.
The southpaw indicated that he still believes he’s on track for Opening Day. Terry Francona was less committal, largely out of an abundance of caution. “I don’t even think about that just because I think that’s where you make mistakes, when you put an artificial deadline,” Cincinnati’s manager told Sheldon. “We’re going to do what’s right for every player. If somebody isn’t ready, whether it’s him or somebody else, we’ll figure out a way to make it work until they’re ready.”
If healthy, Lowder and Abbott will vie for roles at the back of Francona’s starting staff. Hunter Greene will be at the top of the rotation. Trade pickup Brady Singer is locked into a spot. Nick Martinez has the flexibility to move between starting and long relief, though he seems likely to begin the year in the rotation after accepting a $21.05MM qualifying offer. That’d leave two jobs for the group comprising Lowder, Abbott, Nick Lodolo and perhaps Carson Spiers or Graham Ashcraft. The latter two could find themselves in the bullpen.
Lowder, the seventh overall pick in 2023, made a case for a rotation spot late last season. Cincinnati called him up in August. He took the ball six times and turned in a 1.17 earned run average across 30 2/3 innings. His strikeout and walk profile was nowhere near as impressive as the ERA, but that’s not especially surprising for a 22-year-old attacking MLB hitters for the first time. Lowder had excellent peripherals across 22 starts for Triple-A Louisville, where he turned in 3.64 ERA through 108 2/3 frames. He fanned more than a quarter of opponents against a 5.4% walk rate while getting ground-balls at a strong 51.7% clip.
Abbott has posted a 3.78 ERA in 46 starts over the last two seasons. While he put up a sub-4.00 ERA in each year, his underlying marks went in the wrong direction last season. Abbott’s strikeout rate fell by nearly seven points from his strong 26.1% mark as a rookie. He missed fewer bats on a per-pitch basis and became more susceptible to the home run ball. The Virginia product landed on the IL with the shoulder injury in the middle of August.
Reds Designate Davis Wendzel For Assignment
The Reds announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Rhett Lowder, a promotion that was previously reported, while also appointing righty Yosver Zulueta the 27th player for the double-header. In corresponding moves for Lowder, they optioned left-hander Brandon Leibrandt and designated infielder Davis Wendzel for assignment.
Wendzel, 27, was acquired from the Rangers in a cash deal at the end of July after Texas had designated him for assignment. He was sent to Triple-A Louisville, where he has slashed .233/.327/.279 in his 101 plate appearances, production that translates to a 66 wRC+.
With the trade deadline in the rear-view mirror, the Reds will have to place Wendzel on waivers in the coming days. Though his recent output wasn’t great, he could garner interest based on his larger track record. Prior to the deal, he had hit .289/.384/.492 in 151 plate appearances for Triple-A Round Rock, leading to a 117 wRC+.
He also hit 30 home runs for the Express last year and drew walks at a 14.1% clip. His .236 /.361/.477 batting line only translated to a 101 wRC+ in the heightened offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League, but that may have been held back by a .259 batting average on balls in play. His BABIP corrected to .298 with Round Rock prior to the deal, roughly average, which helped nudge his wRC+ up.
At a minimum, Wendzel provides defensive versatility, with the ability to play all four infield positions. He also has a full slate of options and just a few days of service time, meaning he wouldn’t need an immediate roster spot and comes with years of club control. Despite the offensive downturn since coming to the Reds, he had been hitting pretty well at the Triple-A level in 2023 and in the first few months of 2024.
The overall package could perhaps entice some club to put in a claim. He doesn’t have a previous career outright, nor does he have at least three years of service time, so he would stick with the Reds in a non-roster capacity if he goes unclaimed.
Reds To Promote Rhett Lowder
The Reds are going to promote pitching prospect Rhett Lowder, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic on X. The young righty will start for Cincinnati on Friday, making his major league debut. The club will need to open spots on both the active and 40-man rosters to make space for Lowder.
Lowder, now 22, was a standout during his time at Wake Forest. In his final year with the Demon Deacons, he tossed 120 1/3 innings, allowing 1.87 earned runs per nine. He struck out 38.6% of batters faced while giving out walks just 6.5% of the time. He was one of the top ranked players in the 2023 draft and the Reds took him seventh overall, the second pitcher taken after the Pirates took Paul Skenes with the first overall pick, with Lowder eventually signing and receiving a $5.7MM bonus.
The young righty didn’t make his professional debut last year, but he was still considered one of the top 100 prospects in the sport based on his college numbers and draft pedigree. Here in 2024, the Reds started him off at High-A, but his time there proved to be short. In five starts, he tossed 25 1/3 innings with a 2.49 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball rate.
That got him bumped to Double-A, where he made 16 starts with a 4.31 ERA but better peripherals. He had a 23.8% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. If it weren’t for a fairly high .333 batting average on balls in play, he would have fared better, which is why his 3.33 FIP was almost a full run better than his ERA.
Lowder then got bumped to Triple-A and made one good start there, tossing six shutout innings on Thursday last week. Though Lowder’s numbers have continued to impress, he may not have been promoted to the majors if it weren’t for the club getting devastated by injuries. In the month of August, the Reds have lost Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Christian Roa to the injured list.
Losing a bunch of arms like that would be a challenge for any club, but the Reds already had guys like Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson on the IL. Also, they have a double-header on Friday and just started a stretch of playing eight games in seven days. The current rotation mix involves rookie Julian Aguiar and swingmen who have been bumped into starting roles, such as Nick Martinez, Carson Spiers and Junis.
Perhaps this will just be a spot start to help the club navigate this challenging patch of the schedule. Even if Lowder stays a bit longer than one outing, the Reds will surely be keeping his rookie status intact one way or another. The club is now nine games out of a playoff spot and doesn’t have a strong chance of cracking the postseason at this point.
Lowder is already a consensus top prospect in the sport. Baseball America currently has him in the #38 slot overall. FanGraphs has him at #73, MLB Pipeline at #35 and ESPN at #55. Assuming the Reds don’t let him toss 50 innings this year, he’ll still be a rookie going into 2025 and will likely still be on those lists in some form.
That will allow the Reds to potentially take advantage of the prospect promotion incentive. To combat service time manipulation, the collective bargaining agreement awards draft picks to clubs if certain conditions are met. If the player is on two of three top 100 lists at BA, MLB Pipeline and ESPN with less than 60 days of service time, and then is promoted early enough in a season to get a full year of service, he can earn his club an extra draft pick just after the first round by either winning Rookie of the Year or finishing in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting during his pre-arbitration years.
At this point, the Reds don’t have much left to play for in 2024, so they will probably look to keep that PPI incentive on the table. But for now, they can get give Lowder a taste of big league life as they trudge through this viscous portion of the schedule. Though the club is currently in rough shape due to all those health concerns, fans can dream of a future rotation consisting of Lowder, Greene, Abbott, Lodolo and others going forward, as no one in that group is slated for free agency until after 2027.
Details On Dylan Cease Trade Talks Between White Sox, Reds
There hasn’t been much on the Dylan Cease front since early December, when reports suggested that the White Sox were going to wait until the free agent pitching market had become a bit clearer before again weighing offers for the right-hander. The Reds were known to be one of the clubs interested in Cease, though 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reported that the Sox had asked for a four-player trade package — pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty, as well as two position-player prospects.
Jason Williams of the Cincinnati Enquirer sheds some more light on Chicago’s demands, writing that the White Sox wanted Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips, “and at least one more prospect.” This could mean that the Sox wanted a five-player return, with Petty and an unknown position player comprising the other two names involved. MLB Pipeline ranks Lowder, Arroyo, and Phillips within the top 68 prospects in all of baseball, while Lowder (45th) and Phillips (86th) also ranked within Baseball America’s last top 100 ranking from September.
New White Sox GM Chris Getz has been open about the fact that he is willing to discuss any player on his team’s roster in trade negotiations, though some obviously come at a much higher price tag than others. Luis Robert Jr. may be the only player close to truly untouchable, and Cease might not be far off, though the two have differing levels of team control. Robert’s contract contains two club options that control his services through the 2027 season, while Cease has only two more years of arbitration eligibility remaining before he can hit free agency in the 2025-26 offseason.
Still, two years of a frontline pitcher like Cease is still quite an asset — either for a White Sox team trying to get on track after a disastrous season, or as a trade chip the Sox can use to reload the roster for both now and the future. The Reds are a natural trade partner on paper, given how Cincinnati is in sore need of pitching help and is also deep in position-player prospects. Cincinnati was known to have interest in Chicago’s pitching even prior to the All-Star break, so it is safe to assume Cease has been on the Reds’ radar for a while, at least in some fashion.
Because the White Sox are known to be targeting pitching, however, the Sox and Reds might not quite line up as smoothly on a Cease trade as it might seem. Obviously any team would be hesitant about moving three of its top-rated pitching prospects, and in particular, the Reds would be wary about cleaning out their pitching assets when they have so much of an surplus in another area (the infield) in their farm system. Speculatively speaking, the Reds might be more willing to consider a package of Arroyo, another position player, and one pitcher for Cease, yet it isn’t surprising why Cincinnati would balk at moving at least two of Phillips, Lowder, and Petty on top of what is already a substantial return of infield talent.
There isn’t really any harm in aiming high, of course, as Getz has plenty of offseason left to continue to explore other potential trade packages involving Cease. The fact that the Dodgers have already nabbed two of the top free agent (Yoshinobu Yamamoto) and trade (Tyler Glasnow) targets on the market has left a lot of other teams still in sore need of rotation help, so it certainly seems possible that Cease might be wearing another uniform by Opening Day.
It is also too early to rule the Reds out of any further Cease talks, even if that rumored four-for-one or five-for-one seems like a bridge too far. Cincinnati has been aggressive in adding to its rotation and bullpen by signing Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan, and bolstered its infield picture even further by signing Jeimer Candelario. The addition of Candelario seemingly makes it more likely that the Reds could move an infielder in some manner of trade, whether for Cease or another pitcher.
Latest On Dylan Cease
6:10PM: Per a report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post, rival clubs have indicated that the White Sox are “pulling back” in negotiations regarding Cease. Heyman goes on to suggest that there’s a good chance Cease is still dealt at some point this offseason, and that Chicago is likely waiting to see which Yamamoto suitors miss out on the NPB ace before reengaging in discussions on their prized right-hander.
1:23PM: White Sox righty Dylan Cease has been one of the most oft-discussed names at this week’s Winter Meetings, but Chicago’s asking price on the right-hander remains quite high and — at least to this point — prohibitive. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the Sox asked the Reds for pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty in addition to two position-player prospects, for instance. Lowder was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft and currently ranks as baseball’s No. 45 prospect at Baseball America. Petty is the former first-rounder the Reds acquired from the Twins in their 2022 Sonny Gray trade.
Given the lofty ask, it’s not especially surprising that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic casts doubt on whether Cincinnati would actually meet Chicago’s demand in the end. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that the Reds have also inquired on Guardians righty Shane Bieber and Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, but they’re somewhat wary of the recent health issues for both. That’s not an issue with the durable Cease, who’s started more games than any pitcher in baseball over the past four seasons.
The Reds, of course, are far from the only team interested in acquiring Cease, who’s drawn interest from the Braves, Orioles and Cardinals (even after their trio of free agent signings), among others. The Dodgers were also linked to Cease last month, and Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports reports that even as L.A. has aggressively courted Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they’ve also been actively involved in Cease talks throughout the Winter Meetings.
Dorsey adds that the Sox have been eyeing pitching in return packages for Cease, but the Dodgers aren’t willing to include young right-hander Bobby Miller in a potential package for Cease. Los Angeles has plenty of other arms to dangle, but Miller posted a 3.76 ERA with impressive strikeout and walk rates in 124 1/3 innings for the Dodgers as a rookie this past season. Miller entered the 2023 season as one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, and between that prospect billing and his strong debut effort, it’s wholly unsurprising that the Dodgers aren’t inclined to move him in a deal for Cease (or, likely, for just about any potential trade target).
Both the Reds and Dodgers stand as natural trade partners for Cease. Cincinnati has plenty of young talent (e.g. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft) but is lacking in more established big leaguers beyond the recently signed Nick Martinez. The Dodgers, meanwhile, will have Walker Buehler on an innings limit in his first full season back from his second career Tommy John surgery. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and will miss at least half the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Dustin May (flexor surgery, Tommy John revision) and Tony Gonsolin (Tommy John surgery) are also expected to miss some or all of the ’24 campaign.
Cease, 27, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.8MM in 2024 and is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season. He finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander after notching 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball with a 30.4% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate. The 2023 season saw Cease’s ERA more than double to 4.58, but his strikeout rate (27.4%) remained strong and his 10.1% walk rate was right in line with the prior season. He lost about a mile per hour off his fastball and allowed more hard contact in previous seasons, with his home run rate and average on balls in play both increasing substantially.
Down year notwithstanding, Cease is among the most talented pitchers on the trade market and rival teams are surely intrigued by the idea of a change of scenery that gets him out of the White Sox’ homer-friendly stadium and away from their porous defense. As far as high-end arms on the trade market, he’s also one of very few available with multiple seasons of club control. Each of Bieber, Glasnow and perhaps Corbin Burnes is available for the right offer, but all three members of that trio will reach free agency following the 2024 campaign.