The Cardinals entered the offseason looking for three new starting pitchers, and that goal has already been accomplished with the signings of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson. To this end, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak indicated that the club has done a lot of the heavy lifting on its efforts to upgrade the rotation, yet he didn’t rule out more additions.
“We feel like we have a strong five right now,” Mozeliak told Gregg Palermo of Spectrum News. “We feel like we have three or four guys that could give us depth throughout the season as well, so it’s not like a front-line priority but you never say never because something may pop up and make sense.”
In discussing the club’s tactics as a whole, Mozeliak said “we were very aggressive in the free agent market which was strategic. We did not think we were going to be able to acquire what we were looking for via trade, at least where we didn’t feel like we were going to give up something that we were comfortable with, and so now that we do have some starting pitching we are going to be looking at things for our bullpen and be open-minded because there could be something that we haven’t thought about.”
Technically, St. Louis now has a rotation surplus given all of the younger arms behind the projected starting five of Gray, Lynn, Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Steven Matz. It isn’t to say that the Cardinals are necessarily itching to deal from their starting depth since the team very likely wants to have as much depth as possible on hand to withstand another spate of injuries, not to mention the fact that only Gray had a clear-cut quality season in 2023.
However, it does make sense that the Cardinals would be open to moving one or two of their younger arms if it means bringing in more top-of-the-rotation help. In addition to their interest in White Sox starter Dylan Cease, the Cards have “discussed internally what a potential trade for Tampa Bay ace Tyler Glasnow would look like,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.
This isn’t really surprising news given that front offices routinely consider scores of free agents and trade candidates, and it seems similarly likely that the Cardinals probably at least checked in with the Rays about Glasnow as a matter of due diligence. Perhaps most notably, Goold made specific mention that the Cardinals were weighing how Glasnow’s $25MM salary for 2024 would fit their payroll picture, which is currently projected to be slightly above their $178MM payroll from 2023.
While the Rays have stated they are comfortable carrying a larger payroll than usual for 2024, the general feeling is that Tampa will still try to move some salaries between now and Opening Day. This could manifest itself as trades of other players (i.e. Harold Ramirez, Manuel Margot, or maybe even Randy Arozarena) rather than Glasnow, yet the right-hander’s $25MM salary is easily the highest on Tampa Bay’s roster, and he isn’t seen as a long-term fixture given that Glasnow is eligible for free agency next winter. This short-term appeal makes Glasnow an interesting fit for many teams, including St. Louis if the Cardinals are okay with a one-year payroll bump, or if they look to shed some salaries themselves either as part of a Glasnow trade, or in other deals.
Turning to the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Yuki Matsui are a couple of the names already reported as players of interest for the Cardinals, and Goold adds Phil Maton as another target. Maton has been an effective workhorse out of the Astros pen over the last two seasons, posting a 3.42 ERA and spectacular soft-contact numbers over 135 appearances and 131 2/3 regular-season innings. A broken pinkie finger kept Maton from participating in Houston’s World Series run in 2022, but he has an outstanding playoff resume nonetheless, with an 0.83 ERA over 21 2/3 career postseason innings.
Maton (who turns 31 in March) went to high school in Chatham, Illinois, around a 90-minute drive away from St. Louis. As Goold notes, geography also played a factor in the signings of Gray and Gibson, so the Cardinals might look to continue this trend to lure another semi-local product in Maton. There hasn’t been a lot of buzz about Maton’s market to date, yet the relief pitching market as a whole hasn’t really gotten cooking, as teams have been primarily first focusing on starters.
The Cardinals have done a pretty good job of improving their rotation, and it didn’t take them long to do it.
1/3 was an improvement. The other two are placeholders.
Kyle Gibson is a solid #3 guy, Lance Lynn is a passable #5. Lynn is also a decent candidate for a bounce back season.
Yes his almost 5 era and .8 war is screaming number 3 starter.
Have you looked at his FIP? Maybe you should.
What about it? It’s below average. He is a dependable career end of the rotation innings eater that can be replaced by almost any decent triple A pitcher hence his year in and year out war barely under 1.
His FIP in 2023 was better than average, he was simply unlucky.
Lance Lynn is a passable #5, as in 29 other teams passed on him.
I’m actually happy they signed Gibson. people can’t read numbers. he’s not a number 1, but he wasn’t signed to be
Considering how Waino gave them nearly a 7.50 ERA over 100 innings last year, one of Gibson and Lynn are definitely an upgrade for his spot.
So the contention is 100 IP of 7.50 ERA is worse than 360 IP of 5.00? Interesting.
Bieber to Cards is imminent.
Please No His good days are years behind him and Cleveland still thinks he’s an ace trade chip
I don’t have a problem with Sonny Gray, I think he’s a bit overpaid due to his age, but he’s definitely a good addition, then if they were looking for an innings eater they should went for Lucas Giolito who’s also a young guy and could have a nice bounce back season, a reunion with Michael Wacha would have made a lot of sense and then you try to trade for one of the good pitchers out there as your ace, or you go for Imanaga, that would’ve built a solid rotation for the Cards
Totally agree. Mo continues to spout his drivel of how much he likes this guy, that guy and others. Sonny Gray fits well, Gibson’s got red flags himself…but bringing in Lynn was an absolute shocker. He has NOTHING left, can he not see the numbers?? Carlson and O’NEILL especially won’t bring much. That ship has sailed. He should spend whatever it takes to get Dylan Cease. BAAH, ‘24 has to be better than ‘23 but somewhere around.500 and/or the playoffs seems a reach…
Other than Gray , , who should their opponents worry about facing?
Gray had a nice season last year and he parlayed it into a nice contract. Good for him. But not sure that he and a guy like Lynn are going to push the team further ahead in ‘24
Stl is still a last place team.
Inane!
Who said they are done my man offseason just started and we have been aggressive and we aren’t done let it play out rather than being mad
I predict this starting rotation as currently constructed will be worse than last seasons rag tag bunch. Nobody polishes a turd like MoTie.
Seriously. I would pay extra for my team to face this exact rotation in a playoff series.
DYLAN CEASE!!!!!
Either team wins 1-3
Actually what you don’t notice is we already have added already from last year 43 more quality starts as well a bounce back for Lynn with our ballpark homers should go down as well as Gibson. We aren’t even done with the offseason we maybe doing a trade
Actually what you don’t notice is we already have added already from last year 43 more quality starts as well a bounce back for Lynn with our ballpark homers should go down as well as Gibson. We aren’t even done with the offseason we maybe doing a trade as well as improving in other areas and also remember we have a good offense too
The record projections from bref for this “very strong five”:
8-8, 3.46
9-11, 4.35
11-9, 4.76
11-9, 4.83
7-6, 4.25
Congrats on winning 3rd place in the 2nd worst division in baseball.
So they’ve went from a bad rotation to an average rotation. That’s progress.
We’re talking about the Cardinals and not the Royals.
You got me. Your stud of a pitcher with a 5 era will save your bullpen from having a 5 era.
So your # 3 is over a half a run to a run worse then leave average.
And a lower than average FIP.
That’s actually better than I was expecting.
Outside of the Cardinals the Nl Central wasn’t bad last year
I’ve always had a soft spot for the Cardinals, so I’m rooting for them to bounce back in 2024. If they acquire one more good starter plus a good reliever, I think they’ll be in business. Their lineup is solid.
Why would they acquire another starter unless it’s a fringe guy?
You should maybe try reading the article. It will answer your own question.
Did you read the article? They now have a starter surplus. They writer was projecting them trading for another big arm but it’s not reality after filling out their rotation and depth.
Because Matz shouldn’t start.
It’s Moto or bust from the Cardinals
Cards probably won’t spend until Yamamoto makes his decision. They may trade for Glasnow but Tampa will probably have to eat some salary or their return won’t be as much.
Maybe, but STL has plenty of controllable OF pieces they can deal from, and both teams have never been shy about dealing with one another. Doubtful the Rays will have to eat much salary when dealing Glasnow. If that’s the case, Glasnow may end up in LAD
Yes they have a surplus of controllable outfielders but nobody wants them.
You’re funny.
The Cardinals are trying to buy everybody!
(Sorry for being so confused, I just came from Dodgers story discussion.)
Jeez. Quit hogging ’em all. Leave somebody for the O’s to feign a pursuit of…
The fiend of feigns…John Angelos 🙂
I don’t get the Lynn signing this early. He was pretty bad last year and gave up a lot of home runs.
I figured he’d be a guy teams pivot to as camp nears after they missed their real targets.
That rotation looks a lot better if you sub Glasnow for Lynn.
Lynn will have a bigger ballpark now, which I think will make a difference. And Glasnow wouldn’t sub for Lynn, he’d be the ace
Dodgers Stadium is pretty big.
Yes, an ace instead of an innings eater is the point. I feel they could’ve aimed higher. If they missed, Lynn or someone like him would still be there.
@candomarty: well put.
Glasnow should also be labeled a “placeholder” wherever he’s traded. The opportunity to play on the west coast in 25’ might be too tempting for him to remain in STL (or anywhere east of CA)
Except Busch stadium played as a hitters park in 2023 with a park factor of 103z Guaranteed Rate and Dodger Stadium both had 99. Busch and Guaranteed Rate both come in at 98 for HR specifically so there is no reason to believe he will have any better success in home games this year then he did last year
It prolly only played as a hitters park because the STL pitching was so bad though…
So how does that help Lynn be better? He’s now in a team with a bad defense and pitching in a park that isn’t helpful to pitchers who suck.
I think Lynn is a better pitcher than what we saw last year as a whole. He’s only two years removed from receiving down ballot Cy Young votes, for three consecutive years I might add, and being an all star. He still runs up a mid 90s fastball and locates it to strike out batters at an above average clip.
After being traded to the Dodgers, he had 8 quality starts in 11 games started. He had a 3 game stretch of not good starts against Boston, Atlanta, and Miami all surging towards the playoffs at the time.
I think Lynn will give the Cardinals around 100 innings of 3.50 era by the trade deadline. They can then examine the situation and options, and decide what to do. A good signing in my opinion.
Sure, 3.50???? He isn’t exactly in tip top shape. He’s just as likely to spend 3.5 trips to the IL, as have an ERA of 3.5.
Yikes. I’m a Cards fan, but to think Lynn is going to go 3.50 is a bit optimistic. I think we’re looking for him to go 4.50 and 6 IP/start. That would basically be a “success” for him as our 4/5 starter. His velo is down and he doesn’t have the arsenal to compensate for that decrease. He’s going to get hit. Just gotta hope he keeps it within reason, so he can stay in games for six innings and save the pen.
Perhaps 3.50 is bullish for sure, I’ll give you that. His career era is 3.80, so let’s call it a hot take or bold prediction.
I am a Lynn fan, and I think he’ll have a bounce back campaign in 2024. I feel a change of scenery, and a full off-season out of Chicago is going to do alot. From 2019-2022 Lynn had regular season eras of 3.67, 3.32, 2.69, and 3.99 respectively.
2 or 3 possible reasons:
1) with 5 starters (granted more back-end than front-end) they can now look at potential deals without the kind of desperation that they had last year in the catcher market
2) they really, really needed innings. Matz is an IL risk, Thompson and Liberatore are OK but not great depth options and whilst they have decent prospects in AAA and AA most of them are >1 year away
3) there are more teams needing SPs than there are SPs on the market. Sometime in January prices will start to climb even at the SP5/innings-eater end
With Gray they now have an average-ish rotation to go with a potentially strong lineup. Its not going to scare anybody right now, but a trade for Glasnow or Cease would change everything. Even a Manoah trade (if the Jays want to move him) would give them a puncher’s chance
I’ll add to it that if they go into this season with this rotation and all or most of their trade chips they could still add help at the deadline.
No major disagreements other than to say we need to stop thinking this team is going to make another big splash at SP. That’s our wishful thinking, and some of the beat wrtiters’ wishful thinking. It’s not reality based. They’re almost certainly done at SP and will focus now on the bullpen.
Agreed.
I am assuming they have looked at Hector Neris, free agent that pitched for the Astros? Had a 1.71 ERA over 68 innings last season. Seems he would be a good fit for the bullpen and shouldn’t break the bank
They are doubling down on their failed pitching plan from 2023. What could go wrong? 5th place here they come!
Probably not more coming, but I’ve come to terms that it’s likely an overall upgrade from last year. Waino and just about every other pitcher we put at the back of the rotation were worse than what’s there now and caused a complete destruction of our bullpen from the first month of the season. This rotation should keep that from happening. Yes, it will be Gray and then a lot of guys pitching 5-6 innings of mediocre ball, but that’s better than the 3-4 innings of horrendous starts we were getting from these guys at the beginning of last season. They’ll get off to a better start because of it. They’re no threat to win it all, but I don’t see them embarrassing themselves like many believe either.
I looking for:
Cease
Yamamoto
Glasnow
Maton
Hicks
Matsui
because the future is more than a single year, 2024. Subtract Edman and O’Neill plus others who are redundant. There’s a happy Winter Meeting.
Edman is not redundant! Gorman is!
Trade Gorman to the Tigers if he’s redundant 😉 They can send you Matt Manning to add to the current collection of number 4 starters. If they want back in the playoffs they need to sign or trade for a #1 or #2 to pair with Gray at the top of the rotation. Same as the Tigers who have a #1 in Skubal but drop off to number 3-5 type starters after that.
The Cards would need a lot more than Manning. Gorman would be highly sought after!
They’ll get zero of those starters, but I could actually see them getting two of those three RPs, which makes them a better team for sure. Still not competitive in terms of advancing in the playoffs, but a heck of a lot better than last year.
What really gets me going is everyone in Stl always cries poor, small market team. That’s after putting 3.2 mm fannies in those red seats every year. HUGE profits. I know there were a lot of no shows, especially In Aug/Sept. What happens when the #’s go to $2.8, then 2.5? That will force them to move forward. The team that I fear most is 300 miles north. Finally for Cub fans, Tom Ricketts has opened the bank and gave Jed Hoyer carte blanche to go after all the big shooters, Ohtani, Soto, Yamamoto et all. Combine that with a top 2 or 3 farm system and that’s a problem for years…
If the Yankees ran themselves like Tampa Bay, relying on developing prospects, making smart trades, and cutting loose high priced players, they’d win about 30 games a year. Big money gets you somewhere, that’s for sure, but being well run is kind of important as well.
The Cardinals have been a successful team for years and years. First losing season since 2007. The Cardinals are as well run as any team in baseball over any period of time except the last year.
The Rizzo, Cortes, injuries, and below par pitching by Rodon did the Yanks in last year.
Gracias! Sorry but I live in Mexico now!
Well said. People like to point at one or two teams and say “see, you don’t need to spend to win”. Those are the exceptions to the rule. Almost every WS champion over the past 30 years has been a top half payroll, and the vast majority of the teams to advance to the LCS have been as well. The TB system is great when it works, but it doesn’t work for many (and the Rays are still waiting for their title).
I think commenters are putting too much emphasis on the 2023 season. Just about everything that could go wrong did. And the last two months was just exhibition Baseball. Their defense is still great. Offense good. Rotation as it stands now is average, bullpen needs work. But add a very good starter, two very good relievers and this is a play-off team.
Arrenado is still an awesome third baseman. And Gordon will probably DH a lot. Walker will get better, how much, we will see. Catcher is really the only vulnerable position, Cards will find out if Herrera can be an asset.
The offense was 4th in runs scored in the NL Central. That is not a good offense.
This makes no sense to me. Understanding all the issues the Red Birds dealt with. It is almost like an endorsement of their offense. Please show the numbers. I am pretty sure it will prove my objection.
They were one of the worst offenses in baseball last year. That’s really easy to pull up. How is that an endorsement?
They were generally in the 10-15 range in offensive metrics until they started shutting guys down with injuries. While that’s nothing to brag about, it’s also not really a weakness.
Bieber for Roby, Thompson and Carlson. The Cards are giving up their #5 prospect in Roby and an MLB starter/reliever in Thompson. Carlson has control and when healthy is a good outfielder. If they can extend Bieber, this could be a good trade for both teams.
Way too much for a guy on the verge of TJ surgury and only one year of control left. I’d rather they roll the dice on some of the young arms in Memphis. One should work out with so many projected to be ready in 2024. Deal Carlson and Thompson for a bullpen upgrade.
You could be right about TJ. Upgrading the pen should be top of the list if they are rolling with the current starters.
Yeah for that I think the Guards would have to include Classe, plus a little more from the Cards, except the Guards have yet to release a doctors report that says Bieber is OK.
Can’t complain about the Cards staff with the way a lot of teams are looking for help.
I think the Cardinals have done fine. Sure they overpaid for mid-to-lower-level talent, but the likely alternative to what they did is not getting Yamamoto, Snell, etc, it’s getting nothing–which some teams will end up with because there’s not enough pitching to go around. The Cardinals could hardly go into the season with what they had, so the cost to them of getting nothing was much higher than for other teams. Also, they are in better shape to continue the offseason as the outfield “surplus” (mostly failures) is much more likely to get them a serviceable reliever than a rotation piece.
Maybe wait until the end of the offseason to judge whether or not they overpaid. Suspect that if they did it wasn’t by a lot, and if they sit on their hands until the prices go up they may end up with Thompson at SP5, Liberatore at SP6 and Rom at SP7. Welp!
By offering a QO to Glas next offseason the Rays are going to get a compensatory 1st at the minimum.
Sure if Glasnow pitches well and actually has a healthy season. But that’s no guarantee at all.
IF he stays healthy and thats always been a big if with him
less than 1% chance the Rays pay 25m for a season of Glasnow.
I’m happy with what the Cardinals have done. They were never going to sign to top pitchers. They got one top of the rotation pitchers and 2 servicable innings eaters. I said going into the off season that I wanted them to sign starters and trade for bullpen arms since what they are willing to trade doesn’t bring back starters.
The Cardinals are right on schedule with what I wanted them to do. They’ve also avoided long term contracts with starters. Those contracts rarely play out well for the team. The Yankees hit the jackpot with Garrit Cole.
Cardinals were picked to win NL Central last season
He said he liked the rotation going into the season last year as well and that worked out, so absolutely zero reason to question him.
Hey Troll! How’s your day?
Emerson Hancock for Tyler O’Neill. Bring him back home.
If I had to bet on something this off season, I’d go with Carlson to the Giants for some pitching. No idea who. Zaidi has indicated CF is likely to be a trade and he seems like the best available guy.
Makes sense, but the Cards aren’t giving him away.
I don’t think the Giants are after a giveaway. It’s been a problem for a while. Needs sorting.
Cardinals under Johnny MO, has always fell short of starting pitchers that have a combination of 3.30 era + IP 170. Left handed in the 1 or 2 slot to combat opponents big time left handed bats.
Just in our division, Cubs and Reds are looking to add 3 left handed bats.
Your going to be asking lynn to stop Cody B & shohei Ohtani.
Good luck mo.
Well, if the cubs invest 75m aav in 2 hitters they are going to have truly ratshit pitching.
Or has cohen taken over the Cubs and nobody told me?
Cardinals have at least gotten to a point where the whole league doesn’t think they’re desperately in need of pitching mow and they haven’t lost any player other teams might be interested in yet Great staff? How many teams have that? I like the Lynn and Gibson signings and Sonny G too. Never diss the healthy wily old vets if you’re trying to build (or rebuild) a winning team. These aren’t “invites” to spring training older guys plus the young guys from last years staff just got challenged to be alot better to get a spot. Keep going Mo! Uh, not so much “recently” but he’s had a pretty sound career at his part in this game so far too. Guess we’ll see.
This article is a nothing burger. The Cardinals are unlikely to add more pitching, but you never know, they might.
I agree that their rotation is finished, but they might add another reliever or two.
Phil Maton seems like the kind of low-cost, local guy move Mo would make. He could easily replace two or three guys currently in the Cardinals bullpen.
He shouldn’t be the Cardinals’ big bullpen acquisition, but it wouldn’t be the worst second or third move. I don’t hate it.
You don’t really know how any ball player is going to perform the following year. Everybody said Lynn was done after his bad year with the Twins and Yankees , then he led the league in strike outs , and was runner up for Cy young. So he had another bad year , that’s only his second bad year in his career. He might be done or he might lead the league in K’s again . One thing is for sure , no matter how he pitches , he will give the birds a chance to win in 75% of his starts . After this season he will be the alltime franchise leader in k’s per 9 . Not too shabby
I’ll go with something in between. I’d be shocked if he really gives the team what would normally statistically be considered a chance to win in 75% of his starts though. Gibson doesn’t even do that, and he’s better at this point. Lynn has lost velo two years in a row, and he doesn’t have the secondary pitches to cover that loss. If he gives the team what would normally be considered a chance to win in 40-50% of his starts, I think they’d have to be satisfied with that at this point in his career.
His velocity has been down before , and he regained it , maybe he won’t this year , but he pitched pretty good as soon as he went to the dodgers , minus the post season start.
Tyler Glasnow
for
Brendan Donovan
Sem Robberse
Quinn Mathews
TB could use a LHB in their new look IF
After trading Brujan and Edwards to MIA
And presumably having to go w/out Franco
Most of their young MI’s are RHB
And we all know TB loves their platoon splits.
I didn’t deep dive into STL pitching
But Quinn Matthew’s was originally a TB pick
and I like The Dutchman.
I am one that is not impressed with the cardinals upgrades to the starting pitching. Gray was a nice pick up but his age is a worry to consider. Gibson and Lynn are not much better than what we had last year. In all reality with all things considered losing waino, Flahrety, and Montgomery and gaining gray, Gibson, and Lynn it may be a step back. 81-81 at absolute best. But I will hold off on predictions until they have completed the off season.
Wacha with a 3.23 ERA would have been 100 x’s better than lynn or Gibson.
Wacha is at least a # 3 pitcher.
Hopefully Redbirds have two more bullets to fire and can add the ace and a quality bullpen arm. This rotation as it currently sits is average at best If they can add a Snell or Glasnow they can then compete in a playoff series with the Phillies Dodgers and or Braves without an ace they will be lucky to win 85 games