Rays infielder Isaac Paredes has drawn trade interest from several teams, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes (X link), with the Mariners and Blue Jays among the suitors. There isn’t any indication that a deal is anywhere close, and it would have to count as something of a surprise if Tampa did move Paredes, considering both his ability and the fact that he is only now entering his arbitration years. He is projected to earn $3.2MM in the first of four arb-eligible years as a Super Two player.
As such, dealing Paredes wouldn’t bring many savings to the Rays’ 2024 payroll, estimated (via Roster Resource) to sit at a franchise-high $126MM. President of baseball operations Erik Neander is on record as saying the Rays are open to having such a relatively large payroll, yet that hasn’t stopped speculation that Tampa Bay might look to move such higher-salaried names as Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot, Brandon Lowe, Harold Ramirez, or even Randy Arozarena. Trading players as they become more expensive has been a longstanding way of business in Tampa, and there aren’t really many true untouchables on a roster that the Rays are forever looking to upgrade.
In this sense, selling high on Paredes now would net the Rays to a big trade return, and allow them to sidestep Paredes’ increasing arbitration price tag entirely. It seems possible that the Rays might also consider attaching a less-desirable contract like Margot or Lowe along with Paredes in a trade package — while this would lessen the return in terms of prospects or big-league ready players, it would get some money off Tampa Bay’s books and perhaps allow them to keep Glasnow as the backbone of a somewhat thin rotation.
The Rays’ attention to the budget is what brought Paredes to Florida in the first place, as Tampa acquired the infielder and a Competitive Balance Round B draft pick from the Tigers for Austin Meadows in April 2022. Meadows was owed $4MM that season in the first of three arbitration years, yet the Rays chose to deal him in what ended up being a wise move. Meadows has played in only 42 games since the trade due to vertigo and anxiety issues, and the Tigers non-tendered him last month.
Paredes, meanwhile, has blossomed in Tampa Bay, hitting .232/.333/.467 with 51 homers over 952 plate appearances since Opening Day 2022. This production has outpaced his projected numbers, as Paredes hasn’t made much hard contact, and ranked only in the sixth percentile of all batters in hard-hit percentage in 2023. On the plus side, it can be argued that Paredes has been hampered by a very low .232 BABIP over the last two seasons, and his strikeout and walk rates have been solidly above average. In the field, Paredes has spent most of his time at third base posting respectable defensive numbers, and he brings added versatility as a player capable of getting some action as a second baseman, first baseman, and emergency shortstop.
This skillset is particularly useful for teams like Seattle and Toronto, infield-needy teams who could use more pop in the lineup. The Mariners recently acquired Luis Urias to contribute to their infield picture, yet Paredes would be an improvement over Urias as a regular third baseman, so Urias and Josh Rojas could then work into a second base platoon. The Blue Jays also have a big hole at the hot corner with Matt Chapman now a free agent, and Paredes could potentially also contribute to the Jays’ unsettled second base position.
Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has swung quite a few trades with the Rays during his tenure in Seattle, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see the two sides line up once more. That might seem a more realistic scenario than a notable swap between the Rays and Jays, as the AL East rivals unsurprisingly haven’t combined for many trades in their history. Tampa Bay would probably prefer to not have to deal with Paredes as an opponent in the coming seasons, while the Blue Jays might not relish facing any of their own young talents that they might have to deal away to facilitate such a swap.
Speculatively, Tampa could target a controllable young pitcher like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo as part of a Paredes trade. With the Mariners targeting contact hitting, Paredes would be a better fit at third base for the club than the free-swinging Eugenio Suarez, who was already dealt away to the Diamondbacks. Any major salary relief probably might not factor into such a Rays/Mariners deal since it isn’t clear how much the M’s are able or willing to spend this winter, considering that the Suarez trade was made in part to reduce salary. On this front at least, the higher-spending Blue Jays might be in a better position to take some money off Tampa’s books.
Fred Park
Another yawner.
Due diligence.
Hard to say what the Mariners will do, but I still expect soon to see them try for Lourdes Gurriel.
BPax
I’m with you, Fred. Waiting for the big move(s). Trader Jerry won’t sit on his hands. And Fred, as an M’s fan like you, I am posting the M’s opening day lineup in 2011. It might be the worst in MLB history including expansion teams. Courtesy of GM Jack Zduriencik..
1) Ichiro (the down trending Ichiro that hit .272 that year)
2) Figgins (36 million flushed away on this guy. A major bust)
3) Milton Bradley (certifiably nuts)
4) Jack Cust (washed up from a mediocre career)
5) Justin Smoak (painful to watch hit)
6) Miguel Olivo (could hit ok for a catcher but couldn’t, you know, catch)
7) Ryan Langerhans (in for the always injured Franklin Gutierrez)
8) Brendon Ryan (great glove, bad bat)
9) Jack Wilson (washed up former Pirate star)
But to save the season, Zduriencik brought up 1st round and number two pick Dustin Ackley…oops!
aspenner27
This guys 24 and has been traded 2 times already and put up really good numbers last year. What’s the deal?
RobM
He’s been traded for because he’s valued. Last season was his first real impact year.
HBan22
The Rays may not believe he was quite as good as he performed last year, and could look to sell high on him. They could get a pretty solid return for him, and they have a ton of promising young 3B (Caminero, Basabe, Mead, Shenton, Aranda) who are all just about MLB ready.
RobM
No doubt. Higher revenue teams would look to hold him since he’s low cost and that will balance out some of their higher-priced players. A team like the Rays are always looking to maximize value, so they will listen on trade offers as they realize Paredes’ value might be as high as it’s ever going to be.
Surgery?
Just a question who did Tampa get with competitive B pick?
mp2891
It was either Chandler Simpson or Ryan Cermak. Rays had back-to-back CBB picks and I don’t recall which was Detroits.
Stevil
It would be good to see Seattle do better at 3B than their current internal options.
I still think they’ll move an infielder, regardless.
Superstar Prospect Wander Javier
Isaac Paredes had a SLG of .488 last year but an xSLG of .364. I’ve never seen a player out preform their xSLG by so much. His homerun spray chart is even more interesting as literally everything is hooked down the left field flagpole. Out of his 31 HRs, 5 were to left-center and the rest were between the pole and the left fielder. It’s almost a comical take on the “pull the ball in the air” approach. I got to think he is not going to be able to sustain something like this against MLB pitching. Not to say he isn’t good. The OBP is going to play, but he may be more of a high on-base utility infielder rather than a staple of the order star third baseman. The Rays will look like geniuses once again if they sell high on him.
good vibes only
I think you nailed it. He’s probably still better than anybody in the Mariners weak infield except JP at this point but not much. I also don’t think he is a bad player but if Jerry trades Woo or Miller for another utility infielder.. oof.
mp2891
You mean Woo or Miller, plus Ford and Celesten and the CBA Pick and Hancock. Just saying…
thickiedon
Also interesting is his strikeout to plate appearance ratio, 104:571, along with 31 HRs.
Mekias0
I honestly don’t know what to make of Paredes. It doesn’t seem like 30 homers is likely to happen again but he’s still young and has great contact skills. I think the Rays are expecting a little regression next year and are attempting to sell high.
RShore05
I’d really like to see Paredes’ birth certificate! Bc there is NO WAY this guy is 24-year’s old. He looks more like 34 than 24. I’m always skeptical about the ages of player’s who come over from Latin countries, as their documents aren’t always on the “up and up” so to speak. Nothing against Paredes, I think he’s a very solid player who had one of the most underrated season’s last year, but I’d bet money he’s not really 24.
dshires4
You nailed it. His spray chart is terrifying for TMobile.
mlb1225
Tropicana has a short left field. It’s about the same as the Yankees’ right field porch. On top of that, it has the short indent in the left field wall. 26th percentile barrel rate and 31 home runs has to be a record in the Statcast era.
LaBellaVita
Parades is just plain smart. The maximum bat speed occurs when one pulls the ball. And while everyone is saying he can’t repeat the HRs, one should note his BABIP has plenty of room to improve upon.
I wonder about the characterization of the left field at the Trop as equivalent to the right field of Yankee Stadium. It does shorten up at the far left, But so does Fenway on the right. I can’t find an overlap, but we do know that overall, the Trop is a significant pitcher’s park.
dshires4
His barrel rate, hard hit%, and average exit velocity are all very poor.
mp2891
Look at you LBV, defending Paredes. It took me most of the year to bring you on board the Paredes Train, but it was worth the effort.
LaBellaVita
LOL mp, I just couldn’t figure him out. The numbers say luck. But it was that inside information about Parades that made me jump on board.
mp2891
MLB1225 – Paredes only hits high arching shots to left field. That short indent in the far leftfield wall never factors in to Paredes’ HRs. Also, 13 of his HRs last year were hit away from the Trop (42%).
LaBellaVita
Let us all enjoy a Paredes homer by clicking on his Hits Spray Chart. It pulls up a video. Only 2 of his “homers” did not make it over the wall.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/isaac-paredes…
mp2891
LBV – LOL… Nicely done. Don’t you just hate it when the facts ruin a perfectly good argument. 🙂
LaBellaVita
“Facts! Good arguments! ” Are we going to now argue over who makes the best epistemologist?
fathead0507
Texas needs to be on Parades or Harold Ramirez to replace Garver at DH
good vibes only
This guy is better than Dylan Moore, Haggerty, etc but idk why we would give up Woo or Miller for him. Is this the kind of player they cleared Geno’s contract to go get?
Motor City Beach Bum
Dare I say it…the Tigers could use a 3B! More likely they will platoon Vierling, Ibanez and McKinistry there until Jung is ready or IF Keith’s shoulder returns to normal. The article mentions potentially attaching B.Lowe for TB to clear payroll. If Keith doesn’t play 2B right away (big if), Lowe and Paredes would fill the two holes the Tigers have there and slot into the middle of the order. There was also talk in the past of having Keith play OF so maybe he could get some time there, at 2b and 3b this year, then slot in full time next year in the OF when Canha is gone. Rob Metzler would know Paredes, and Lowe especially from his TB days.
Lots of interesting prospects in the Tigers system who could make up a good return without crippling the system.
mp2891
Motor City – The Rays aren’t trading B.Lowe and Paredes in a combo trade, and it’s laughable to suggest B.Lowe has negative trade value.
Motor City Beach Bum
With his higher salary the article hints at attaching him to Paredes to cut payroll, which is the same logic being floated about Arozarena and Glasnow.
mp2891
All 4 of those guys are premium trade assets. The Rays don’t do combo trades with premium trade assets. Just like they don’t consolidate premium assets for crazy expensive players like the Mariners’ Gilber.t (a popular trade proposal on BTV).
Motor City Beach Bum
Prediction…Arozarena and Paredes to the Mariners for young pitching plus.
Kassiedog
If Woo or Miller is included in a deal for Paredes the Rays would have to be including a top prospect as well.
stymeedone
Why? There is not an over abundance of 3B options out there. You’re trading for a young player with contact skills (look at his minor league BA and OBA) who is adjusting to becoming a power hitter. You see the numbers and think regression. I see the numbers, and see potential to be even better. Think of what he’ll do when he improves his hard hit rate and starts using all fields, as he did in the minors.
mp2891
Kassie – Woo and Miller alone is a long way from getting Paredes. Hell, Woo and Miller together won’t get it done. There’s no chance the Rays will have to attach anyone to get a huge return for Paredes.
rememberthecoop
Contending teams need guys who are not only good during the season, to get you to the post…but also guys who perform well under pressure. Randy Arozarena is one of those guys who can help you both get there as well as win playoff games.
Kyle T
Shoot come on Dipoto just sell the farm
Get Paredes to play 3rd Lowe to play 2nd Ramierez to play DH Margot and Arozena join Julio in the OF
Trade
Rojas Kelenic Woo and Hancock and another minor leaguer with Potential….Get all their salary dumps
rememberthecoop
Batting average doesn’t mean as much as OBP. Look, the objective of every at-bat is to get on base, right? I get it that a walk isn’t always as good as a hit, but I’d look at on-base more. I am not a huge metrics guy, but I do like wRC+. Slugging matters too, obviously. BA? Not as much.
BigRedMachine
Ok, Not bad if the M’s could get Paredes but please not for Woo or Miller.. Young, talented, and controllable, pitching is too valuable and Isaac P and he has not done what he did last year consistently enough, yet… Now start talking Arozarena and Parades and how about Woo or Miller, Kelenic and Harry Ford…..
Joel P
Woo and Miller haven’t shown any consistency yet. The Mariners have more pitching than they need. They need offense. It makes sense.
BigRedMachine
You can never have enough pithing. Ask every team in MLB
Joel P
That doesn’t mean Woo and Miller are more valuable than a 4 win 3b.
Jaysfansince92
Agreed. 4 win 3B don’t grow on trees. There is definitely value there and you aren’t going to get him without giving up something that hurts.
mp2891
Joel – I couldn’t have said it better myself.
SodoMojo90
Harry Ford with Woo or Miller will get you a better player than Arozarena. Mariners would be getting fleeced in that deal.
BigRedMachine
Read: Arozerana and Paredes
mp2891
Woo and Miller ain’t getting Paredes, let alone Paredes and Arozarena.
YanksPhan42
TB is one of the most intelligently ran teams in MLB. Buyer beware if they’re selling a super talented young asset. There may just be a reason
Chester Copperpot
Dipoto thinks he can out-genius anyone.
hoof hearted
Winker
Wong
AJ Pollack
mp2891
ROFL – Good one Hoof.
Joel P
They have loads of infielders and need pitching. Paredes kinda came out of nowhere last year and they don’t really need him as much as they need pitching.
CeruleanDrew
Tarp, too many words for you in the write-up? Reading comprehension an issue I assume. You choose .232 to focus on to pose the weakest of points in lieu of all the positives. Weak!
CeruleanDrew
As is the case this time of the off-season on MLBTR and elsewhere rumors regarding Paredes and others such as this are commonplace. Because Seattle and Toronto are supposedly “inquiring” does not translate to Tampa is shopping him. Most understand that but a few posters seem to be assuming more than that. We shall see.
YanksPhan42
It’s also the time of year where most intelligent GMs survey the free agent market and know there are very few impact bats……so if I were to float a name out there, maybe a desperate team grossly overpays. It’s how low budget teams like the Rays are good every year with a small payroll. Trade someone while his value is on the ceiling to grab 5-6 other young kids on the cheap….especially if they don’t feel that player will repeat his career year.
Joel P
Nobody is trading for Paredes assuming he can maintain his 2023 teams will take into consideration his past history as well. It doesn’t make a trade any less sensible. The Rays need pitching not infielders that’s why they would consider it.
YanksPhan42
He’s 24. Past experience means nothing at that age…..it’s what they would project going forward.
BigRedMachine
Just fun to speculate. No raining on Parades.
Rickover50
still think the rays knew of meadows issues when that trade was made. hard to believe he was fine up to that point
mp2891
Rick – Meadows has said he had issues before the trade and the Rays were working with him on them, but the trade really messed him up. He wasn’t able to deal with that much change in his life. To my knowledge, the Tigers have never complained about being kept in the dark about anything.
timmygee
BPax – Thanx for the memories! *ugh* Wasted years of therapy trying to forget that painful year. Time for Jerry to do something big or pack it up and leave town!
SI
Rays return? Don’t they like to take multiple shots on guys for their return on investment? They did trade Adames for two relievers.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Reading that this could be a “step-back” year for the Rays because of all their pitching injuries. An evaluation year of sorts. They are already maxed out on their payroll until they do something with Glasnow or shed salary thru other means.
mp2891
ISOAB – Yeah, the Rays will be missing 3 top starting pitchers for all or a majority of 2024, and they have no idea whether Franco will ever play again. Their payroll is currently 50% higher than it has ever been, so yeah, it makes sense for them to trade a few guys to get their payroll back to historical average. My expectation is they trade Glasnow, Margot, a couple relievers and one of Aroz, Diaz or B.Lowe. A Paredes trade would simply be them trading a player they don’t really need who has a sky high valuation (to the extent any 4 Win player can be called unnecessary).
mp2891
@Mark Polishuk – You might want to fact check your reference to B.Lowe having negative trade value. He put up 2.8 fWAR last year with a salary of $5.25MM. Next year he makes $8.75MM under the last guaranteed year of his deal. Then he has two club options at very reasonable salaries of around $10-11MM each, essentially giving the Rays 3 one year deals with him. One year deals equal very little risk. Guys who put up 2.8 fWAR in a “down” year for less than $10MM have positive trade value. In fact, Lowe has quite a bit of trade value.
Enregistre
“Meanwhile” has to start the sentence; it shouldn’t come in the middle.