The Cubs have signed right-hander Hector Neris to a one-year, $9MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via X). There is a $9MM club option attached for the 2025 season, and that vests into a player option if Neris makes at least 60 appearances this season. Between that option and additional incentive bonuses, the deal could be worth as much as $23.25 over the two seasons. Neris is represented by Octagon.
Best known for his time as the Phillies’ closer, Neris has spent the last two seasons in Houston, and is coming off (technically) the best year of his decade-long Major League career. Neris posted a 1.71 ERA over 68 1/3 innings out of the Astros’ bullpen, with an excellent 28.2% strikeout rate and some of the best soft-contact numbers of any pitcher in baseball.
There were a few red flags, however, which is likely why the righty landed what is officially just a one-year guarantee. Neris’ fastball velocity dropped to 93mph in 2023, rather markedly down from the 94.3mph average of his first nine seasons. He also had an 11.4% walk rate, marking the third time in the last four seasons that Neris’ walk rate has sat within the bottom 23rd percentile of all pitches. With a tiny .219 BABIP and a big 90.5% strand rate also aiding his efforts, Neris’ 3.89 SIERA was over two runs higher than his real-world ERA.
It’s fair to assume that some regression is in order, and these troubling secondary metrics aren’t exactly a great sign for a pitcher who turns 35 in June. However, even if Neris’ 2024 ERA is closer to that 3.89 figure, he still figures to bring value to Chicago’s relief corps in terms of both results and durability. Neris has a league-best 307 appearances since the start of the 2019 season, and a stint on the COVID-related injury list in 2020 marks the only time Neris has ever appeared on the IL during his big league career.
This kind of durability holds particular appeal for a Cubs team that was hit hard with bullpen injuries down the stretch, which contributed to Chicago’s 12-16 record in September and subsequent near-miss of a wild card berth. The Cubs were naturally known to be looking for relief help, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has traditionally been wary about committing big money to the pen given the year-to-year volatility of many relievers.
In that sense, Neris’ contract represents more aggression even if it remains a one-year deal, considering that the Cubs haven’t gone beyond $5MM on a relief pitcher since signing Craig Kimbrel in June 2019. Should Neris eat his usual amount of innings, hitting the 60-appearance threshold shouldn’t be too much of an issue, and thus he would top the two-year, $15MM deal that MLBTR projected for the reliever at the start of the offseason. Neris ranked 46th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.
Neris has a similar clause in his previous deal, a two-year/$17MM pact signed with Houston in the 2021-22 offseason. The Astros held an $8.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) on Neris for 2024 that vested into a player option if Neris both passed a physical after the 2023 campaign, and if he made at least 110 appearances over the course of the two seasons. Neris ended pitching in 141 games, and then opted to decline his player option to re-enter the market in search of a richer deal.
Adbert Alzolay blossomed as the Cubs’ closer in 2023, and Neris will now step right in as Wrigleyville’s top setup option. Neris joins Yency Almonte as newcomers in the relief corps, and it can’t be assumed that the Cubs are now done with their bullpen shopping. Adding another veteran on at least a minor league deal seems like a possibility, and if Neris represents a bit of a splashy spend, perhaps Chicago could look for another reliever on a guaranteed deal within that sub-$5MM comfort zone.
The Cubs’ payroll now sits at roughly $196.3MM, and there’s still plenty of room to go before Chicago hits the $237MM luxury tax threshold. A big-ticket signing like Cody Bellinger could naturally absorb a lot of that remaining space, but there’s still plenty of flexibility for Hoyer during what has been a pretty quiet winter overall for the Cubs. The Shohei Ohtani pursuit carried a lot of the team’s attention in the offseason’s first month, though the Cubs have since added Shota Imanaga and Neris in free agency, while also adding Almonte and Michael Busch in a trade with the Dodgers.
The Astros, Cardinals, Mets, Rangers, and Yankees were all linked to Neris at various points this offseason. Earlier this month, it seemed as if the Rangers and Yankees were looking like the favorites to sign the right-hander, but Chicago ended up emerging to win the bidding.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
That’s a good deal, shoot.
Agree.
Yup
I’m no expert but Neris I can tell, that’s a good deal.
I hope Alzolay remains closer with Neris as top setup reliever.
Now get Belli if we are spending like a big market team or Chapman only if he can be had on a short deal.
Chapman is signed by the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Manny was asking for Matt Chapman.
It’s a great signing, all things considered. Still bargain-bin, but I completely support that strategy when it comes to the pen.
That’s a steal !
A steal for Neris?
With this signing, can we say, the “Return of the Jed-eye”?
Yes. Meaningless stat to drop 1 mph. Guys that have command and know how to set you up need minimum speed
Reds are going to regret not having a solid guy again to lead to Diaz.
Hector Neris – projected 0.3 fWAR
Emilio Pagan – projected 0.4 fWAR
Neris 1.71 ERA
Pagan 2.99 ERA
Neris ~3.8 ERA projection
Pagan ~4.5 ERA projection
Yeah neris had by far a career year too.
Projected = guesses/meaningless
Nah, the nickname JeDi already belongs to Jerry Dipoto
Oh yeah cause projected war means anything. Especially for a reliever
War. Huh. What is it good for?
Dude you gotta stop complaining so much. If you can’t enjoy baseball don’t watch.
I call it as I see it. If you don’t like the honesty, you don’t have to read.
If you don’t like his honesty, you’d don’t have to read it either.
@Reds, I don’t care about any of the posts and peoples dumb speculation’s back and forth of who’s better and why, but do you believe there’s more honesty in the actually numbers the players have put up in the past or the projections put up on a website by people who don’t even know the player?
@Dawg. Like it sounds like you believe, everyone always ends up regressing to the back of their baseball card, so to speak. That’s why I am skeptical on Pagan and a guy like Bellinger looking for long term big money after one good comeback year.
I always kind of laugh at rookie projections especially because no one really has a clue that what happens in the minors has any bearing on what they will do in the majors. Some guys actually end up performing better and of course, many never match what they did in the minors.
From seeing the way Jed has penny pinched/negotiated the bigger FA signings he’s landed and seeing Hoskins sign with the Brewers, I think there is a decent chance the Cubs can land Bellinger on a better contract than we think, despite Boras being his agent. Yes Bellinger is much different player than his first couple years. But he did battle lots of injuries to finally come back to be pretty successful, even if he’s not that same hitter he was when winning RoY and MVP.
I think something front loaded with player opt outs after years 1 and 2 gets it done. Thinking like 6 years $160m plus $10m signing bonus. $30m for yr one, $30m yr two, $25m each following year. Allow performance escalators for years 3-6 so he can earn up to $35m a year. And then a team option for 7th yr at $30m.
Something like that would be well worth his versatility and plus defense at 1b and CF while we wait for other prospects to develop into those positions.
Both have 11 letters in their last names.
Not who you’re referring to, but maybe this comment was intended for a Hockey Rumors article?
I think he meant in their full names.
How did Nerris get paid less than Robertson? Infact, for 1 year at 9 million, what was Stearns thinking? You have an elite 8th inning guy that you can pay pennies on the dollar. Instead we go with Austin Adams and Michael Tonkin… Dollar Tree David Strikes again
I don’t disagree about this particular comment, but calling yourself a baseball expert is rather self-indulgent, don’t you think?
I think the “Metsin7” is a much more worrisome indicator than giving himself (herself) a tagline.
People always say stupid stuff like this without considering all of the factors involved. After all, it’s possible that Neris simply didn’t want to pitch in New York, or he felt the Cubs had a better shot at contention than the Mets. Sometimes it’s not just about the money.
He’s heading into his age-35 season, and is coming off a season that’s a complete career outlier. Velocity is ticking down, hard-hit rate ticking up, and his FIP was two runs higher than his ERA. The downside is limited because it’s a one-year deal, but $9MM to me is an overpay for his likely production and potential bust potential at this stage.
@LordD99 Robertson is 5 years older than Nerris, had a worse season, and got paid more. The Mets signed him to a 10 mil deal last year. They did not replace his first half production at all. Lost Ottavino as well. Diaz is coming off a major injury. We don’t know how he’ll perform now. He can’t pitch every inning
The Mets are intentionally trying to cut spending this year. It’s pretty obvious. Next year they’ll be splurging, but I don’t see how you can be surprised they didn’t go after Neris. They’re sitting this one out, letting the kids play, hoping for a wildcard.
The Mets just won the World Series almost 40 years ago, what’s the rush? It’s a “rebuilding” year. They have a potential 45 hr guy walking with Linder etc but it’s a rebuilding year. They should have traded Alonso now and get a haul but instead they are rebuilding.
@Mrski I’m not saying I agree with the strategy, but I’m saying they’ve been pretty clear about it. No one should be surprised. And I mean they spent the most money in the history of baseball last year. Not only were the Mets not good last season, but they weren’t profitable, which seems impossible for a NY baseball team. A retool to get the farm right and salvage some money seems reasonable.
@LFGMets I don’t understand why you would ever get banned? You’re not a troll and you stick to baseball. What am I missing?
@LFG, Robertson has been far more consistent over hos career. He also pitched very well for 2/3’s of season before being traded to MIA. Also with MIA he had an insane BAbip of .385(career .292) which clearly to some extent is a result of MIA defense. Neris on the other hand had a career low BAbip of .222(career .282). Normally indicative of a player having alot of luck.
Not quite sure how this is relevant to Stearns either as these are 2024 values they signed contracts for. And considering neither Neris or Robertson signed with Mets, how is this relevant whatsoever to Stearns in 2024???
@Tigers3232 because there were reports that the Mets were interested in Neris for weeks
I want to see the Mets sign JD Martinez.
I still think the Mets are a solid team and play way under their ability last season. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see them fighting for a wild card spot, however I don’t love their pitching and I would stay far away from signing Ray.
Sorry, I meant stay away from Snell, Ray was on my brain from the “west note” article
@drasco036 I disagree. The Mets will be lucky to win 70 games. Inexperienced manager, the bullpen is bottom 5 in the whole MLB, starting rotation is full of holes, and the hitting isn’t very good unless guys like Alvarez and Vientos can take a leap this year. I have 0 confidence in Baty at this point, I’d cut bait with him now and sign a 1 year deal guy like Justin Turner or trade for someone like Ryan McMahon
You’re not worried at all about McMahons home/away splits or that Justin Turner cannot play third anymore?
@drasco036 Home and away splits don’t matter, especially when you play in Coors. All players hit better at home. These Coors players need to adjust when they go on the road. There have been plenty of players that hit just as well if not better outside of Coors Field such as Arenado, Lemaheui, Larry Walker, etc. Some players go to Coors and hit worse like Daniel Murphy, Jose Reyes, Ian Desmond, etc. Bad arguement
Haters are going to hate. Btw his hard hit rate was the lowest of his career and his hard rate percentage ranks in the top 3% in the league. Also, it just so happens the Cubs have a phenomenal defense for a guy who have over a 50% ground ball rate.
Agreed. Now that’s a decent deal. maybe even a bit Cub friendly. As for the defense we’ll see how the whole Morel-Busch thing goes but I’m sure by the end of the year it will be fine one way or another. Solid work Jed. Kudos
I wouldn’t call the corner infield defense phenomenal.
Really?
Swanson gold glove multiple, best defensive shortstop in the league
Hoerner gold glove, one of the best defensive second basemen in the game.
Happ, gold glove
Madrigal 10 OAA at third
At the moment, PCA in center who everyone predicts will be a platinum glove winner.
You don’t call that phenomenal?
Agreed it looks like a pretty fair deal.
You sound ridiculous.
Platinum glove winner for a guy who doesn’t even have a hit in the big leagues yet? Lol okay sure.
I forgot you have no reading comprehension. I don’t have the crayons or time to explain things to you today so feel free to not respond.
It’s cool I gotta go to lunch soon. Gonna go to McDonald’s and have me a phenomenal meal.
At the moment Tauchman in CF and PCA in AAA until his bat is ready for MLB pitching
Drascoo- This guy is the new Joel. Maybe even the old Joel. Either way he’s just a fool. Blackpink? Wow. Anyway if they get Stanek they would move from good bullpen to solid. Or even Brasier. They’d have major quality arms for Counsell to pick from. If the Cubs do indeed sign Bellinger and put PCA in CF the defense would be exactly what you said – Phenomenal.
To be fair guys—-unless he edited it—-he did say corner infield defense….and at this exact moment—when Wisdom, Morel and Busch are on your depth chart at both positions—-that is truly nowhere near phenomenal. As a matter of fact it’s pretty scary.
If those three are all in the Opening Day lineup (they won’t be) as some iteration of 1B, 3B, DH it’s not the best scenario.
I’m trusting that it is January 27 (Ryne Sandburg acquisition day) and things will be different soon.
You got a problem with Blackpink? That’s weird…..
There are 4 infielder spots. 2 of them are corner infield and the corner infield defense looks like one of the worst in baseball.
I understand we all cheer for different teams. But don’t be a homer. Be fair and honest.
I think I would be done with bullpen additions unless one fell into my lap.
Cubs have Alzolay, Neris, Little, Wesneski, Lietter, Mayweather, Caus, Almonte with the depth option of Assad or Wicks, they have Brown and Arias in the minors as well as Thompson.
I’m curious if the Cubs will make any depth moves between now and the start of the season, if they re-sign Bellinger we can move Tauchman, we can move either Nicky vaccuums or Mastrobuoni, Wisdom could be moved also.
Thinking out loud, between match ups/dh and Bellingers ability to play first, there should be plenty of games played if PCA is called up. 162 games is 120 games a piece if you rotated everyone on equal days off just in the outfield.
Last time I checked Mastrobuoni and Madrigal are both still on the Cubs. Madrigal is great defensively and Busch, per reports, has above average quickness and hands at first base which is why the Dodgers thought he could play second.
Manny- With the Cubs probably only keeping 4 OF’s, Since they can toss Morel out there in a pinch, Tauchman might not be around. I love what Tauchman did but Canario and PCA have a way higher ceiling. you only get 13 position players
Locks are
Gomes
Amaya
Happ
Suzuki
Hoerner
Swanson
Morel
Hopefully Bellinger
Then you have the decisions
Canario
Tauchman
Madrigal
Mastrobouni
Wisdom
Busch
Vasquez
Me personally That’s 8 locks and 7 guys for 5 spots barring any more additions. We can eliminate Wisdom because I hate him and can’t believe he’s still here .
Madrigal and Mastro are redundant but Mastro has the advantage because he can play SS and he’s LH. Madrigal can only play 2 and Mastro can even play some OF and Madrigal is never around. So will the Cubs keep 5 OF and Morel? That’s seems like much. If they keep Mastro-Vasquez-Madrigal then either Canario or Tauchman has to go.
It’s a good problem but Vasquez has a higher ceiling than Madrigal or Tauchman IMO.
It’s an interesting problem with somebody left without a chair when the music stops.
True, if the Cubs re-sign Bellinger, Tauchman becomes expendable, freeing up 2 million dollars, Madrigal is nearly 2 million, Wisdom is 3 million. All three can be traded fairly easily because they all have some value. Cubs could find a taker for most of Smyly’s salary also.
With Neris, the Cubs are 30 million under the tax, re-signing Bellinger would eat 20-25 million, I’ll call it 22.5 giving the Cubs 7.5 million under, plus the 17 million the Cubs can move on expendable players.
Yeah right now you have-
Locks-
Steele
Tallion
Hendricks
Imanaga
Wicks
Assad
Wesneski
Smyly- because of his salary
Alzolay
Neris
Merryweather
Leiter Jr
That’s 12 already unless you use Assad as a starter and send Wicks down for back up
Then you have
Little
Palencia
Cuas
Almonte
Keegan Thompson-longshot
For at the most 2 spots.
I think if they sign another guy then you somehow have to get rid of either Smyly( Preferably) or Leiter Jr.
Another interesting problem to have.
As of now Madrigal is the 3rd baseman. Morel DH.
Honestly, if Chapmans price can come down, they could re-sign Bellinger, sign Chapman and stay below the luxury tax.
Chapmans market looks really thin, maybe he would be interested in a deal that gets him back on the market next season, so let’s say 2 years, 25 million next year, 20 million in 25 and a 5 million player option in 26. Opt out after the first season. That’s a 16.7 million AAV.
ADD Bellinger at a 22.5 million AAV and that’s 39.2 million. Neris has our number at 30.2 under the tax.
We can clear 17 million just by ditching are over flow players. Which puts us under the luxury tax with 8 million for mid-season improvements. You can add 5 million to that number if you sell Bote. If you are at 13 million, you can add another reliever and still have room at the trade deadline.
Busch is a lock at first. He will get major run at there. If Hoyer wasn’t sure of that there’s no way he gives up Ferris to get him.
Cubs could be in a great situation as Morel-Vasquez-Mastro can play 3rd in the late innings and then they move Morel to DH and still keep his bat in the lineup. Can you do that? If you do that do you lose the DH and your pitcher has to hit? IDK. I’ll have to look that one up unless somebody knows.
Mike127… Unless something changes, Madrigal is getting vast majority of time at 3rd and as has been discussed, defensively, he’s one of the best 3rd basemen in baseball.
Busch was very good defensively as a 1st in college. Again, because he was a good defender at 1st, the Dodgers were hoping they could play his bat at 2nd/3rd. They didn’t try him at 2nd/3rd because he was a terrible defensive 1st baseman. Move Rizzo to 2nd or 3rd, I’m certain we’d think he was bad defensively.
I would be surprised if Morel played more than 100 innings at 3rd. I’m pretty sure Morel is going to be the DH and Wisdom is on the bench,… Right?
Wisdom is in Korea.
I don’t see any corner IF listed…..
@revolver
Agree, there is no possible logic that Jed trades Ferris unless they felt quite confident that Busch is ready for prime time.
The people who continue to obsess about first base still being a big question mark, are wasting their time. I don’t think the Cubs are concerned about first base at all, even if Belli doesn’t re-up.
Don’t agree Drasco, about Tauchman. To me, his value is way underestimated by many people here. He IS someone who can hit lead off in a professional way. That is a true talent that is not to be overlooked. And he is certainly capable of doing an acceptable job in CF.
I still wouldn’t sign Belli for more than two years, and that said – I’m still unsure about PCA, offensively.
It is a real talent, especially when you are on the bench.
I don’t know where you disagree, that he’s a bench player? That he makes 2 million dollars? I’m confused.
drascoo, sorry. I’m not sure what I read (or might’ve read into), in one of your comments. I looked again at above comments and didn’t see what I was responding to.
Maybe I’m getting sensitive to what I feel by some here, is a desire to resign Belli, no matter the cost.
No worries. I think the assumption was I was saying Tauchman was expendable or not valuable. He is, I was just saying if the Cubs needed to clear money, he’s one of the guys they could move due to PCA and Canario.
Cubs are just getting close to the luxury tax threshold and still have a couple moves to make (potentially) so you have to start looking at options.
Dog/drasco –
“True, if the Cubs re-sign Bellinger, Tauchman becomes expendable, freeing up 2 million dollar.”
I read that your were responding to the above. That Tauchman would be a quality piece even if they resigned Bellinger
Reading a bit further down, I gathered drasco was building a scenario that the Cubs could sign Chapman, as well if they could trade off a guy like Tauchman. And Madrigal because with Chapman, he’s “expendable”.
Yeah, these guys are easily movable because they actually do have value at their price tag.
Tauchman is interesting because of Canario (and PCA) we don’t “need” to carry five outfielders when you have a guy like Morel who can play any position in the event of an emergency.
Madrigal and Mastrobuoni are redundant pieces as well if we sign a third baseman.
I do not see PCA or Camaro on Opening Day roster. I thought they traded Vasquez but if not he starts in minors too.
I see Tauchman on the roster with or without Belli.
I agree with you that PCA and Canaria are the future and have more upside, but I think either Belli or Tauchman are Opening Day CF.
Smyly is on Opening Day roster and is a good asset. He can eat lots of innings when we are up or down by a wide margin. He can do spot starts due to injuries. I hope that Wicks or Assad is number five starter over Smyly, but even that depends on Spring Training performances.
I think 1B is Busch’s job to lose, but he still has to hit 0.200 in Spring Training with a home run or two.
Does anyone know if Morel’s 1B defense is passable?
You are the only person I have ever heard call Smyly- An innings eater. Nothing could be further from the truth.
I read it and agree with him. His reading comprehension is just fine. Your mommy should have taught you to take better care of your crayons. That way you wouldn’t lose them.
that was for drasco
The thing I don’t like about Neris is that he has an attitude problem and likes to throw at batters. In that sense he was perfect on the Astros, just another reason to dislike the Astros. But I want to like the Cubs, and don’t want to hold this signing against them. But watch his attitude & demeanor in the game he throws at Julio’s head and tell me he is somebody you want to root for.
Spot—I totally agree agree with you and I truly hope NONE of the three of Wisdom, Morel, and Busch are on the field opening day. Honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if two of them aren’t even on the opening day roster. BUT–as it stands TODAY, they are all on the depth chart right now.
In any case—even with Madrigal there, the corner defense, as it stands right now is not phenomenal as blackpink wrote.
Not defending him at all—but certainly agreeing that is is a valid point.
@mike127
Usually I see where your comments are coming from Mike. But I don’t get why you’re giving Busch the cold shoulder before we’ve even seen him play 1B?
I don’t think Jed trades for him unless he felt Busch was more than a DH – esp for Ferris.
Don’t forget you also have Carl Edwards Jr as well the Cubs haven’t had a splashy winter that every fan on every team wants. But outside of Bellinger they really didn’t need a huge winter . This team is young and pretty good I have not seen a Cubs pitching staff with so much upside ever! And more is the pipeline. I’m thinking Cubs see Bellinger and are afraid of having a Heyward 2.0 but Cubs shouldn’t act like small market team they have so much money. Get it done with Bellinger and this club is in post season . Cub fans should be excited your going to be tough team next few years
@yanksfan. I agree with your views – especially the Heyward 2.0 comment. I’m all for paying Belli all he wants for 2 years. No more than 2.
As you mention the pipeline is ready. But there has to be opportunities for it, to show their commitment to seeing what they can do. We already gave away Nelson Valezquez for nothing to KC. NTC to Happ, limits the Cubs somewhat.
I still want to know whose idea that was.
You either want Bellinger or you don’t. Saying things like “I only want him for two years” is ridiculous because he isn’t signing for two years.
I’m sure it was Happs idea to include a no trade clause. Fact is, Happ left money on the table to sign an extension with the Cubs and as a result he wanted a no trade clause.
Hey Blackpink, if you always wanna argue or disagree just don’t watch baseball man
Dog—not giving Busch the cold shoulder at all. Until Bellinger signs with the Angels or somewhere else, I still think there is the possibility he is at first base.
Personally, I think Bellinger hasn’t signed with the Cubs yet because he most likely, for the majority of the contract, becomes a 1b and I’m sure he prefers the outfield.
(if you are referring to the comment about not being shocked if two of the three aren’t on the opening day roster–that would be with the signing of a better third baseman–and I’m not in favor of Chapman–but it COULD happen—and Wisdom would be expendable and I still think Morel could still be moved). As it stands now they do have some redundant roster parts and it would be shocked. Also, no surprise if all three are on the roster.
drascoo I realize it had to be Happs ‘idea’. I want to know who had final say about going along with it.
And, was ‘saying’ we only will go along with ONE year, LAST year for Belli, ridiculous????
Seems to me, that’s exactly what went down! And seems to me, nobody is knocking down Bellis door with the offer Boras is telling him, he deserves.
I’m fairly certain that is NOT the reason Bellinger has not signed and unless Busch is a bust, Bellinger wouldn’t be playing first the majority of his contract.
Bellinger looks really good at first defensively, no doubt about it but his true value lays on center field where 30/100 is nearly impossible to find.
If Bellinger is signed, PCA starts in AAA. Then it’s still pretty easy to find PCA, Bellinger, Happ and Suzuki at bats. If rotated equally, throughout the course of a season, that’s 120 games apiece. Add Bellinger being able to play first and then add the DH into the mix, there is more than enough playing time to go around.
@Drasco, there are a number red flags with Neris that were long enough that I didn’t want to type them out in my mobile, but if you insist. : -)
Off the top of my head, I was really referring to his barrel rate, which has increased from 5.7% to 6.8% to 8% from ‘21 to ‘23. It’s a trend.
Fastball velocity dropped nearly 1.5 mph in one year after being very consistent the prior 6.
Correspondingly, his K% dropped from 31.6% to 30% to 28.2% over the same three-year period.
Ground-ball percent has cratered from 47.1% to 34.6% to 31.8%.
His walk rate nearly doubled from 2022 to 2023.
In fairness, his K% is still above league average, but it’s trending the wrong way, as are many peripherals.
His 2023 isn’t really repeatable driven by a .219 BABiP and a 90% strand rate. That strand rate is 20 points higher than the three prior seasons.
If he can avoid further decline, the Cubs likely get ‘22 Neris as opposed to ‘23 Neris. That’s still good, but relievers with declining trends in their mid-30s often collapse, and that would be my concern since he still will pitch in at least 60 games, and then you have a 2/18.
And Happ didn’t leave any money on the table – not at all.
Neris, like a lot of Astro pitchers, made the conscious effort to pitch more up in the zone, much like Imanaga will. That induces a lot of weak fly ball contact. With all the red flags, you missed his weak contact and exit velocity were all in the 90th percentile.
Just the other day I saw a video of Trout and Arod discussing how difficult it is to hit the high fastball. That’s what coaches are teaching, that’s what analytics are telling all of us. Pitching up with horizontal run is incredibly difficult to square up and drive.
Is Bellinger coming off the worst season of his career where he was non-tendered or is coming off one of his best? I’ll stand by my comment.
Really? You believe that? 29 year old free agent, weak position player class, two straight gold gloves, two straight solid offensive seasons. Happ would have eclipsed Bennie’s 75 million dollar contract and most likely would have landed at least 5/100
Mike – ok, got you.
Manny –
“. He can eat lots of innings when we are up or down by a wide margin.”
In the context you used, yeah, Smyly can be an innings eater.
you guys are already saying Morel and Busch can’t play in the field 1 month before a baseball is even tossed out on the field. Everybody is probably down in AZ working out aw baseball like others is a year round sport now. A lot of guys are building up arm strength, Working on mechanics trying to improve. Some will some won’t. I think the Cubs can be a good team without Bellinger. Signing Bellinger on a long term contract would be a bad idea. He’s 28 and could sign a 2 year deal and still hit another FA deal at 30 and cash in. If he doesn’t want to do that let him go to the Angels and suck for the next 7 years. The last time I checked they had a pretty good CF so he’d be stuck at 1B there too. I’d walk away from him. I’d let this roll right now unless they could sign another reliever better than Mark Leiter Jr. and then move him. Without Bellinger they could make additions at the break and still not go over the tax. I’m betting Counsell could keep them competitive until then with what they have. Anyway, I’m willing to take a look and then see before I go totally nuts.
“unless they could sign another reliever better than Mark Leiter Jr. and then move him.”
Leiter has been outstanding for 2 years. He handles lefty bats. He has 3 years until he hits FA, so he’s incredibly affordable. Seems a bit out of character for Hoyer to get rid of an affordable reliever in order to drop $10M+. Unless Ross broke him, there is zero chance the Cubs deal Leiter.
Stanek or Brasier would both be an upgrade over Leiter Jr. They are both guys who could be used more than Leiter as he needs rest or his splitter fails with overuse as we all saw. Can you count on him again? This was his first real season as a reliever. In the up-down life of relievers, I’d rather have guys who have been doing it for years. Stanek and Brasier could close games in a pinch. Not sure I can say that about Leiter as good as he was last year.
I find it interesting that earlier in the offseason you preached about letting the kids play but you want to spend more and more in the bullpen?
I don’t follow the logic there but I don’t believe in spending a lot of money in the bullpen either.
True I did. But back then I thought we’d be getting big pay FA’s ( Not so much) and wouldn’t have any money left. As you pointed out we still have 30 million left and up to 45 million left if we manage to dump Smyly, Wisdom, and either Madrigal or Mastro. Signing one of those guys and trading Leiter doesn’t really impact the kids it’s just signing a better guy than we have now. Rather than signing Bellinger pivot and get another bullpen guy and upgrade your options. I still say they should sign Woodruff for say 5 million for this year to let him rehab with a Cub option for next year at a team friendly 15 million. There’s a slim chance he could even be back late this year, Although I wouldn’t push him. I think saving money for the deadline would be a better use of the money they have left. You can never have enough pitching. I’m pretty sure Almonte, Cuas and Edwards will pass through waivers after ST and can be optioned. if they want to leave it’s not really a problem if they don’t want to accept the demotion. Wish you the best guys on your way out the door.
I’m cautious on Woodruff, aside from Urias, who has had that type of shoulder surgery and returned for form? I mean not that I would be against it, definitely worth the risk if we have some excess money to spend this season.
I never expected the Cubs to blow the doors off in free agency, we just didn’t have the funds to do so. Well, we have the funds just not the room under the luxury tax. I still think the Cubs should be willing to go over some and trying to wiggle under during the season.
I still think the Cubs work out a deal with Bellinger as long as the Angels don’t throw crazy money around to sign him. No offense to Angel fans but that franchise is a joke. I don’t know why anyone would sign there long term. Bad farm, bad owner, lots of instability and really it’s like going to club med, guys are still kicking but they are basically retired and collecting a check.
Most people seem to be missing the bus on Busch. He’s going to play first. They may work him some at third just to keep their options open but most likely first is his home. Morel will get a lot reps at third as well but I think as it stands he will be DH/Utility.
I could see a scenario, if Bellinger re-signs, Morel and Busch taking turns at DH while the other plays the field. This also would assume the Cubs have PCA up. Bouncing Bellinger around CF/first/RF and DH. When Bellie is at first, Morel moves to third and Busch hits DH.
Hate is a strong word.
Yeah, right…? Someone needs therapy.
“Stanek or Brasier would both be an upgrade over Leiter Jr.”
Based on what? Both are the poster kids of volatility from year to year. The exact quality Hoyer said he’s going to avoid.
This is not Leiter’s 1st year. He threw 53 IP in ’22 with a 2.87 ERA. He threw 69 IP last year. His K% and BB% are as good or better than both.
Leiter has thrown 132 IP the last 2 seasons. stanek 105 IP and Brasier 122.
“Stanek and Brasier could close games in a pinch.”
Leiter has 7 saves the last 2 years. Stanek only has 4 his entire career. Brasier only 10 in 7 years and 7 of those were in ’19.
“I’d rather have guys who have been doing it for years.”
The only thing those 2 have been doing for years, is being volatile relievers. I’m absolutely certain Hoyer isn’t paying twice as much, or more, for 1 year over 3 years of control for Leiter.
I’m pretty sure if you asked any manager in baseball which one of those 3 guys they’d rather use to close a game Leiter Jr. would be last.. But what would you know you’re just a blowhole of negativity like usual. All you ever do is knock other peoples opinions. You’ve never actually had one of your own. At least mine are original Joel Jr, Correct or not.
Mel Rojas 2.0
Antonio Alfonseca 3.7
Look at FIP not ERA
I’ve seen both of them implode in crucial situations. Neither is worth the money they are getting paid. Very very very weak free agent class overall.
Robertson is more consistent that’s why.
Cubs absolutely need bullpen depth. They rely way too much on in-house unproven options. I know relievers can be volatile from year to year, but dating back to 2016, outside of Chapman (trade) and Kimbrel, they’ve always tried to be cheap in building a pen.
I’d rather see them have a couple proven guys, and then supplement it with in-house options. There’s no such thing as too many late inning quality arms. I’d love to see them add another back end piece as well. Leiter and Alzolay died down the stretch last year and both had injury issues as well. I doubt they’ll add more so this move is already out of character for them.
This is a nice, solid move. Actually at this point I am happy with going to town with this bullpen as is. Little deserves a real opportunity the way I see it. And I’d like to see them break in Ben Brown around the ASB, through the bullpen.
“They rely way too much on in-house unproven options. I know relievers can be volatile from year to year, but dating back to 2016, outside of Chapman (trade) and Kimbrel, they’ve always tried to be cheap in building a pen.”
This just isn’t true: Wade Davis, Brian Duesing, Koi Uehara, Justin Wilson, Brandon Morrow, Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, David Phelps, Jeffress, Tapera, Chafin. Robertson, Plenty more names.
Since 2016 the Cubs bullpen has generally been very good. In fact, if there is one area the Cubs have been consistently good, it’s been the bullpen.
Simply because it happened last year, doesn’t mean it’s the standard
Wade Davis was excellent
but..Wade Garrett’s the best…
I can’t believe they’re remaking Road House and setting it in the Keys…
I can’t believe Billy Joel is releasing a new song next week, after 32 years.
I can’t believe Nikki Sixx wasn’t playing the bass for real on a major stadium tour. disappointing
I can’t believe Joel couldn’t find a way to keep Katie Lee happy!!
The Cubs faded in September last year because their offense couldn’t score against the pitching of Arizona and Atlanta, more so than anything being bad in the bullpen. Additionally, the current bullpen is not a bunch of untested home grown talent. If you actually follow the Cubs, you’d know that Alzolay, Leiter, Merryweather, Assad or Wicks, Smyly, Thompson, Rucker, Palencia, Cuas and now Neris do not make up a bunch of untested home grown options.
True, but in fairness the Cubs did try. They took Belli off the market and went and acquired the 2nd best bat on the trade market by bringing back Jeimer. Candy ends up cooling off and getting injured, so that’s not on them. But it also makes you second guess about bringing back guys like Belli & Soler on multi-year deals, when Belli missed time too last year, and Soler is doing better, but has a long history with injuries.
Alzolay was great, he just got injured
Glad to see him out of the Mariners division. He’s always tough.
Not enough to make them legit contenders.
Go to bed son
Oh.. please tell us how it does. We will all wait. lol
Lol!
I kind of agree with your boy. Belli was their best bat and the heart of their offense last year. Without replacing him… if they don’t resign Belli, short of a Trout trade (which they’d never do) the Cubs offense has some thump holes. Even bringing back Soler, but no Belli, they’re adding another Wisdom, Morel-type with monster power, but lots of K’s. At this point, it seems like the Cubs & Belli are in a staring contest.
“Not enough to make them”..None of us has a crystal ball and you do realize the Cubs missed the playoffs by 1 or 2 games, right?
He’s a troll, and stole my name. You won’t get a honest response
@mlb fan Unfortunately Imanaga barely replaces Stroman, at best is a wash. Nerris is great deal for one reliever, but if they lose Bellinger, they are net/net worse than the end of last year, no question. They need either him or Chapman just to stay as good as they were at the end of last year. I’d love Chapman, personally… another GG on left side of infield to pair with Swanson. But right now Cubs have to make another add or two to be as good or better than at end of 2023. Hopefully more moves in the works.
They added Busch, Almonte, Imanaga and now Neris. Stroman was atrocious down the stretch. Their bullpen is definitely improved. I agree another bat would be great but this team could easily be better than last year. PCA, brown, Horton all close. Wicks will be in the rotation or bullpen all year. Smyly could be very good out of the bullpen.
Smyly was outstanding out of Detroit’s BP back when they had Verlander, Scherzer, Price, Porcello and Fister. I realize that was years ago, but Smyly would probably be better off in the BP. That way maybe he can stay healthy. Again, he was great as a reliever.
@jhomeslice Imanaga for Stroman is a net wash at worst. There’s a good chance Shota is a noticeable improvement.
Hoerner has not hit his prime yet…close but not yet.
Swanson was below his typical output last year.
We didn’t see the real Suzuki until the last 2 months.
Same thing with Taillon.
Near zero production at 1B the first half season
Counsell instead of Rossy
Morel has not peaked yet.
If they sign one more good bat, they’re fine.
There will be 0 ab’s given to Hosmer,Mancini ,Barnfart. That’s an improvement right there. Not to mention the addition of Counsel and the subtraction of Ross. This is the NL Central not the AL east.
They’ll resign Bellinger too. Unless SF or Toronto overpay.
Wow. Great deal for the Cubbies. less than some pen arms that had a weaker last season
“Great deal for the Cubbies”..Slow paying the market often works. People will stop criticizing the Cubs when they get Belli back on a 1 year deal.
I believe they’re def getting Belli back. Unless SF or Toronto overpay
If the Cubs get Bellinger I would say they will be the division favorites. But if they don’t they won’t. We will see what happens.
Haven’t the Reds improved more than the Cubs thus far? They have signed Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez, Brent Suter, Emilio Pagán, and Jeimer Candelario. Cubs have added Imanaga, Busch, and now Neris. If Belli resigns, I would still put the Reds just a touch ahead of them, especially if some of their young bats take a step forward.
No such thing as a bad one year deal. This is a much safer move than shelling out for Hader.
Neris had an FIP over double what his ERA was. I like the deal because again 1 year but I don’t think it’s amazing. Hader is a stud.
I prefer one year of Neris over 5 yrs of Hader myself. It’s substantially more flexibility and less risk. But didn’t this guy just opt of more $ than 9M?
I think it was 8.5.
The Cubs should be able to roll out a $300m routinely. When they are bad, they still get 32,000 ppl to show up.. when they are good, they get 39,000. They own their entire neighborhood now, have multiple avenues of income beyond the team itself. Somehow the have zero elite players.
If a young fan is going to buy a Cubs jersey for 2024, which player would they pick? Dansby Swanson? That’s their biggest name? In a massive market?
That’s extremely sad.
You make a decent argument. That said, the Cubs were among the finalists for Shohei Ohtani who clearly preferred LA over Chicago, New York or any other major market location.
The Cubs also won a World Series in 2016 with many excellent players, a few of whom were among MLB’s elite at the time including home grown MVP Kris Bryant. They also managed to trade for a couple of cheap players early on their careers who became elite with the Cubs, CYA winner Jake Arietta and 1B Anthony Rizzo.
The Cubs appear to be the front runner for re-signing Cody Bellinger who like Bryant was elite early in his career with the Dodgers before his production dropped due to injury issues. Bellinger rebounded nicely last year with the Cubs and a couple more similar seasons would entrench him back into elite status.
Many pundits also have a couple of the Cubs top prospects in their elite category including CF Pete Crow-Armstrong and SP Cade Horton. The Cubs have a solid developmental track record to make those projections become reality.
In closing, the Cubs were also reportedly among the few candidates involved in the Juan Soto sweepstakes before the Padres dealt him to the Yankees. I expect the front office to be among his top pursuers next offseason when he hits free agency assuming the Yankees fail to extend him beforehand.
Did u see Seiya down the stretch. He is an elite player.
Ryan,
“Cubs should be able to roll out a $300m routinely.”
You don’t understand how the tax threshold works, do you?
I’d say right now their biggest stud jersey seller should rightfully be — Justin Steele. Or as I call him “Steele Justice” in reference to the old Martin Kove film. Steele is the most underrated pitcher in the league. If he keeps it up, he’ll truly be the new Jon Lester.
Even Steve Cohen eventually backed off and started selling pieces. If Cohen is afraid of the luxury tax — all owners are.
Ok, a 235 million payroll
More important:
Having a big name marketable player, or
Having a good team.
Lets ask Mike Trout!
“Lets ask Mike Trout”
Or… The fans that got to watch the Angels playoff games in their Ohtani jersey.
Not a bad deal, the prices are definitely dropping with spring training around the corner . you might as well sign quick before the ink dries up
But it’s not our money so why would you say that you prefer this guy, with all of the red flags he has, than perhaps the best closer in baseball? That doesn’t make sense.
“But it’s not our money”..Look up the words “mitigate risk” and “payroll flexibility” and then get back to me.
@coop Because a one year deal is not as risky, figured he would get atleast 10.5. You can always trade him at the deadline if they fall out of contention. Hader will be on a decline on the last two years of his deal
Because you hope the saved money can be used for a bat
I can belly signing a three year deal with a opt out after year one, teams might spend more after the Bally sports fiasco is solved.
coop, your a real pessimist lol. Repeat after me, ‘the sky is falling, the sky is falling. . . . .
You are a real piece of work.
So will Luke Little ever get a shot?
Yes he will get plenty of appearances this year.
I agree.
Much less than thry 3/50 that Jon Arson Heyman wrote before…
Heyman, Nightengale, they’re all the same. I think they makeup half the things they write.
They write only about a few teams mainly the Yankees who have been incredibly silent lately as all of the AL east teams have
Throw Passan on that list too. They’re muck rakers who are consistently wrong, but always have an ESPN political talking point to ruin the game with. Ugh.
Thanks, Jed! Perhaps another move by the Cubs is just around the corner!
Hopefully it’s to fire Jed.
Lol. Thumbs up on that one.
They’ll resign Bellinger I believe.
Neris > Robertson
I don’t think that’s true. FIP is better than ERA.
Good thing the Cubs are phenomenal defensively then huh?
Phenomenal???? Come on now homer. Cool your jets.
It’s 100% true. Robertson was getting bombed after being traded to Miami. His overall FIP doesn’t look atrocious because of a solid first half, but he absolutely stunk in the 2nd half. Neris is still very solid and was a closer foe years.
ERA is reality. FIP is projection/fantasy.
ERA is what happened. FIP is what should have happened. FIP is a better stat for predicting future performance.
Love this. Was expecting Stanek but this is better.
Who says they can’t also get Stanek?
Every contender should have been in on him for that price. In that particular economy, that’s a pretty good deal for the Cubs.
Neris is an intimidating guy who’ll strike you out most times. Robertson is a guy who’ll fool you and induce soft contact to “comfortably” get you out most times.
2023/Career K/9 rates:
Neris: 10.1/11.2
D-Rob: 10.7/11.8
Great deal. Phillies or Yankees should have pulled the trigger here. There aren’t many substantial bullpen upgrades left.
I was looking at the Yankees 40 man. I would like wandy back but I’m pretty comfortable with picking 12 or 13 names from the 20 currently on there.
You didn’t get enough neris blowing leads for the philles. My God you are a glutton for punishment.
Phillies fans always kill their relievers. Neris was one of the better closers the team ever had, and he was overworked because he was part of historically bad bullpens. Neris was solid in Philly and Houston. He would be one of the better pieces in their already solid pen.
Ok how bout this for the cubs? Sign Matt Chapman and Cody now. Belli plays a majority at 1B. With Chapman at 3B, definitely too 3 best defensive infield in bigs. Play PCA in center. Morel is now expendable. Trade him for Clause. Clause I’ll s closer. Neris is setup. Make it happen Jed
You think the Cubs will sign both Chapman and Bellinger? And Morel is going to bring back Emmanuel Clase? Not a chance of either of those things happening.
It’s the only way to have a successful offseason and they have the funds to do it. Obviously acquiring Clause is prolly not attainable just offering Morel. Morel and Ben Brown? This would make a very solid team imo
Successful offseason on paper. Guys still have to perform. Ask the Mets.
Hahaha. Ya that’s absurd to me. I’ll root for em to take down the dodgers this year
If you ask for Clase, the Guardindians are asking for Cade. Period. Which means Jed hangs up the phone.
Ya that ain’t gonna happen. Not after cubs just traded Ferris.
Probably will resign Bellinger. Might have to give another young bat for Clase besides Morel. Meaning, Morel and someone else. Chapman will probably go to SF or back to Toronto.
The Cubs are not getting Clase if the Cubs are offering what Cub fans are offering. Cleveland has no reason to give Clase away. The Guardians will get what they want, or they can easily keep him.
Yeah too bad they will have Busch at first and Morel will be dh/utility.
Cubs bullpen is pretty nice with the high upside relievers and now some stability. This is exactly what the Cubs needed to do with the bullpen. Tip of the cap to Hoyer and Hawkins on this one. Alzolay, Neris, Little, Wesneski, Lietter jr., Assad is a really nice balance of high leverage stuff and long relief options.
And Smyly or Wicks
Not only a good signing, but good deal not to overpay for a career year heading into his age 35 season. Solid. And about time Cubs did something! Not impressed by Imanaga being their “big move”, with Stroman gone simultaneously. Hope Chapman or Bellinger to come.
Imanaga raised their ceiling but not their floor. Neris just raised the pens floor and ceiling. Now we need to make an improvement to the offense.
Busch becomes DH if morel is traded
I thought he had good D?
He can play IF but his position will be 1B. Not the best defender. Hoping Busch will really hit tho as he’s advertised. He should be a good fit for Wrigley although Ferris has some power lefty stuff. It was a deal I thought was fair. Cubs need a 1B and grabbed potentially a really good one
“He can play IF but his position will be 1B. Not the best defender.”
Busch was very good defensively at 1st in
college. Again, because he was a good defender at 1st, the Dodgers were hoping they could play his bat at 2nd/3rd. They didn’t try him at 2nd/3rd because he was a terrible defensive 1st baseman. Move Rizzo to 2nd or 3rd, I’m certain we’d think he was bad defensively.
Right. I never said he was bad at 1B which is why he’ll play 1B for the cubs. Cubs aren’t gonna play him anywhere else not with Dansby at SS and Nico at 2b. He’ll be fine at 1B.
Very solid move.
Dude, what? NYY blew it. To me, this was the guy they needed, but from what I’ve been reading they’ve been low-balling relievers. That’s a sad state of affairs, and tells me a lot about their intent this year.
That’s a nice deal for the Cubs.
They made him a bigger offer for 2 years. He we t to the cubs for less money and only 1 year. No one wants to play for the nyy.
This is such a silly narrative. Yes, no one wants to play for the team with the most WS wins in one of the best cities in the world. Keep dreaming that.
No one reported on a “bigger 2 year offer”. There was reported interest, and that’s that.
It is a silly narrative, but the narrative that anyone (other than fans) cares about WS rings from the 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s is also silly. Plenty of people would play for the Yankees, but it’s mostly about money, location and competitiveness. That “rich history” doesn’t really fly anymore. 2009 was a long time ago.
I’m sorry, this is also silly. History and prestige is very important to players as well. NYY is a storied franchise.
And since 2009 they’ve still made it to the playoffs in most of those seasons. Competitive balance has been much more of a thing since then as well so that’s no easy task, but NYY can still match money, location, competiveness with anyone. The problem’s been more with this FO’s approach more than anything in recent years, yet they’ve still gotten their fair share of free agents.
I have to disagree with you there. I don’t think the Yankees prestige means a single thing to anyone other than Yankee execs.
Looking forward to when the Cubs come to Seattle in April. Neris is a big favorite with the Mariners faithful.
There it is, their Big Move, that they promissed everyone before the FA Start !! Sigh
Daggumit! I was hoping the Phillies would bring him back for another go round. (Apologies for the profanity, as this is a family friendly site.)
Wow, Jed finally paying a reliever. Somewhat under market based on some of these other deals. Hoping Jed is rounding out the team so he knows exactly how much he has left for a Belli deal.
The Yankees offered more. He chose to play elsewhere for less. Seems to be a trend.
Where are you getting that the NYY offered more? Source?
He’s a Red Sox fan troll. The Yankees are doing the opposite. They see a bunch of interchangeable relievers and they’ll go lower cost. Unlike these other teams, the Yankees don’t need to add a reliever, but they likely will.
Another good player off the board, another week gone where the Twins have been totally dead to the world:(
Ita gonna happen.
Again.
Solid deal. Once again, being patient worked for Jed&Co. I don’t know how in the world Robertson got more than Neris, but I’ll take it.
The Cubs specifically wanted a reliever who will scream at opposing hitters for no reason and they got their man. Neris represents another possible option for NL reliever whose guts will be ripped out by a big Ohtani or Betts or Freeman homer or some other massive purchase the greedy Dodgers make. But nice that the Cubs can at least compete for a division even as LA has ruined the sport completely.
It’s just my opinion, but I don’t think LA ruined anything but their own dynamic in the future.
Only 1 year for 9? Wow, I know his FIP was way different than his era and he’s probably going to regress somewhat but still, he’s been a mostly solid relief pitcher for most of his career!
.219 BABIP; 32% groundball rate; 90.5% LOB! That’s most likely unsustainable. A good reliever nonetheless.
Yeah it’s clear MLB front offices weren’t fooled by his era under 2.00! Still, I can see him pitching some high leverage innings with an era around 3.15 or something and that certainly has value.
I’m curious how many people actually know what FIP means, not the acronym but how FIP is actually calculated.
Hint, it’s a sabermetric stat.
Lol, why are you being smug and talking down to us for no reason? I’d say 95% of people on this website know what FIP is and most baseball fans that aren’t new or casuals do in general.
Hint, because you are a Dick!
You think 95% of this site know how FIP is calculated? There is probably less than 5% without looking it up.
I think you are way underestimating a lot of people on this website. The fact that someone has created a profile on a website for rumors and is an active participant in discussions would suggest most are die hard fans of the sport or at least not casual fans. Typically, when people are passionate about a subject they take the opportunity to learn about the subject that fascinates them, which includes learning the intricacies of certain metrics. (Let’s be honest here understanding the intricacies of FIP is pretty elementary compared to some other metrics.) Sure, there is some really dumb people on this forum, but I’d argue that the majority of users are passionate fans who are interested in all aspects of the game and in turn educate themselves on things such as metrics and stats. I mean, I know that I’ve had stimulating conversations with others on here, even ones I didn’t necessarily agree with.
Solid but now their payroll is only 31 million below the CBT. Guessing Belli eats at least 20/25 into that which only leaves 5-7 for a 3B.
Cubs do not need a third baseman so win/win right.
I don’t see Shaw as ready for a couple years. I’d try to pull a trade for Kim but that would cost a boatload and I’m sure 29 other teams would also like him. I just don’t think you can keep running Wisdom/Madrigal or Morel out there. Either way I like the Neris signing and can see him eventually closing .
Shaw is an advanced hitter, I can easily see him skipping AAA if the Cubs current third base options are not working out. Morel and Hoerner both skipped AAA for their initial call ups.
Cubs also have Vazquez in AAA, he has to be on the teams radar for third as well.
Cubs could swing a deal for Chapman if the market falls to a level they are comfortable with and make deals to make the financials work but it’s not a priority. Cubs have a lot of their players they can cut ties with to get under the luxury tax, depending on where their number are. Smyly, Madrigal, Wisdom, Tauchman and they could probably attach Bote there and move him also.
Also, let’s say the Cubs did decide to add a third baseman and did in fact re-sign Bellinger, that would make Madrigal and Wisdom expendable, freeing up 4.5 million. They could find more money dealing Smyly also.
They’re not getting rid of Wisdom. He has too much power, too much versatility for too cheap of a price. He ain’t going nowhere.
“only leaves 5-7 for a 3B.”
Probably not for 3rd unless Hoyer is going over the threshold and he already said he isn’t going over. Hoyer always wants to save $5-$7M for moves during the season.
As previously stated, if the Cubs add Bellinger, Tachman can be moved. That’s 2 million, adding a third baseman allows for wisdom and/or Madrigal to be moved 2-5 million, getting rid of Smyly adds 10 million. Selling Bote adds 5 million. cubs technically can add a third baseman and stay below the luxury tax.
Speaking of Bote, what hell happened to that guy? Like when they optioned him last year, he was dead to them. Surely he has value as a bench bat, and utility player. Like they just washed their hands of him, but kept him in the organization because of the contract.
Drasco, yeah, I’ve read what you’ve drawn up. I think it’s highly unlikely that all those pieces fall into place. The Cubs would have to want Chapman for “$22.5” for 2 years. Chapman would have to be willing to settle for $50M. He may not get the projected $150M, but he’ll likely get $100M+. Then you have the challenge of giving away all those expendable pieces on the roster. I think finding takers for Smyly and Bote would be difficult without eating most of their salary. I’m fine shipping Tauchman/Wisdom/Madrigal out as well. You do need to add guys back to fill their spots on the roster, which adds $800K per guy. You could trade Almonte to shave some more
It’s possible, but I think unlikely that all this comes together.
No one is trading for Smyly or Bote.
Smyly is a good asset, but zero surplus value at his salary.
Bote will be cut, his time is over other than as a minor leaguer.
That’s why I said “sell” Bote. Send him to another team with a prospect to clear the roster space or add him to package for less return.
Lance Lynn got 10 million, Kyle Gibson got 12. Smyly is moveable. Same with Bote, add him to a Madrigal deal and wave bye bye.
If you trade 4, you only have to back fill 2 because you signed 2.
He was “dead” to them because if they called him up they would have had to expose him to waivers again and add him to the 40 man which would mean they would have to expose someone else to waivers.
I have no right to complain as a Dodgers fan this offseason BUT damn, Joe Kelly at $8 milli looking like a big overpay! Wish the Dodgers had waited our the reliever market – hey maybe they still are, especially with Brasier.. But if Brasier can get two years – if – he goes elsewhere.
He could make as much as $23.25?
I heard taxes are high in Illinois but I didn’t think it was that bad.
It’s pretty bad. “Crook” County combined tax rate is one of, if not the worst, in the country.
9mm!
That’s disappointing that the Astros didn’t step up for him.
Could be up to a $23.5MM commitment over two years, and there’s high likelihood it’ll be a 2/18 even if he’s mediocre. The Astros bullpen is fine.
Cubs, Reds and Pirates are trying to compete. Brewers and Cardinals are trying to manage a payroll.
So you’ve got the Pirates ahead of the Cardinals and Brewers this year?
No but they appear to be improving/trying.
With the exception of Chapman all of Pittsburgh’s signings have been bargain bin types. These are flip candidates for the trade deadline to further stock the farm system.
Also, Milwaukee just shored up a major weak point in their lineup with the Hoskins signing while putting themselves in position to potentially receive three compensatory draft picks at season’s end. Their front office are truly masters of simultaneously rebuilding and fielding a contender, particularly with the payroll constraints.
Bargains or not Perez and Gonzalez are upgrades in the rotation. Hoskins is an upgrade for the Brewers but the loss of Woodruff is huge.
Woodruff wasn’t going to pitch this season. For $6 million they signed Colin Rea and Joe Ross instead. Moves like this are why they’re able to sign Hoskins.
Which pair has more success in 2024, Rea and Ross or Gibson and Lynn? Hoskins added to the Brewers doesn’t bring them up to the Cardinals lineup. They look to be locked into a battle for 3rd, 4th and 5th with the Pirates.
Don’t be surprised if it’s Rea and Ross. Lynn’s HR rate is atrocious and his fastball lost both movement and velocity.
Cardinals fans hate the Gibson/Lynn duo. Are Brewers fans in love with Rea and Ross? My point is the Brewers have leaned on very good starting pitching for a log time, the Cardinals have won in spite of weak starters withe the obvious exception of 2023.
This article reminded me how dumb the City Connect unis are. Hideous.
Not all of them are hideous. The Astros actually have some of the better ones.
I like the Astros City Connect uni, but that’s a rarity. I pretty much dislike most of them. At least so far.
I wonder if you brought in 9 minor league free agent types into the mix for $1 million apiece if you’d wind up with at least a couple that would have better seasons than this guy will. It seems ljke every year there are a dozen relievers that come out of nowhere to have productive seasons.
That’s a lot of roster spots.
Bring them into spring training, keep a few on the big league roster, sprinkle others into the upper minor leagues, maybe rehab a couple rebounding from arm issues, release a couple who aren’t cutting it. Point is they don’t all have to be on the big club but can be accessible as needed during the season.
So be the Oakland A’s? Most competing clubs want performance certainty from free agents and that’s why they pay the price for it.
Yankees are interested, another one signed somewhere else on a friend contract. Either this network is full of crap or the Yankees are. I will say both.
Shocking on this. All the talk with Astros losing him, Maton, and Stanek. I seriously wonder if Astros did have any intention on at least bringing back Neris or Maton. Not sure on my thinking but maybe with his age, velocity slipping and perhaps Pressly perhaps not as strong with closing perhaps why wanted stronger in bullpen like a closer and could have Abreu, Montero, and Pressly before Hader. But I do wish Neris good luck with Cubs. Glad did not go to Rangers at that. I felt he did not want NY teams. But think Houston will have work to do starting this season for a lot if things do not start great. But they are focused in win now mode.
Solid guy they ought to be able to flip at the deadline when the Cubs are out of contention.
Lol… Counsell will have the Cubs in it all season. Won’t be any sell-off for years.
exactly, because if there is Counsell might be fired himself in a couple of years if he isn’t the guy.
A 1 mph drop is not “markedly” lower. That’s a ridiculous statement.
For a guy whose avg fastball was
2017 94.7
2018 94.6
2019 94.6
2020 94
2021 94.4
2022 94.4
2023 93
Yes, that drop is ‘markedly’ lower and ominous.
Markedly lower but not concerning. As you age, you transform from thrower to pitcher.
So his velocity dropped 1.7 mph over 7 seasons. Doesn’t really sound that concerning to me.
His velocity dropped 1.5 mph over a single season after being remarkably consistent over the prior six. His K rate also dropped. I wouldn’t term it ominous, but it’s a red flag for a pitcher heading into his age-35 season.
For reference, Dylan Cease fastball velocity was at 97.6 in ’20. Last year it was 95.8.
Solid pickup for a team that has a ton of overall talent… just need another power bat but would be fine with the roster they have now to compete in 2024.
Wow! Jed finally rebooted his phone, and can receive and make calls again. At least they got one of the better FA bullpen arms. It’s something.
Everyone’s saying this is a great deal. But he had a career year last year. He’s not consistent.
I’d rather have given a few more
Mill to a more consistent reliever.
I agree with this. I wanted A. Chapman back. And knowing now it could’ve happened for only $1.6M more… I’d rather have Chap setting up Azolay.
Appreciate Aroldis for 2016, but want no part of him in clubhouse for a whole year
The Chicago Cubs: the dynasty that never was. At least they got a participation trophy out of it.
Fair
The Siren on the Cubbies!
Hey look another miss by the Rangers and Chris Young. Can somone do a welfare check and make sure he realizes all the bullpen arms are going off the board and maybe he should do something to actually improve the team other than sign old, low/mid level players