Few players have found their names in more trade rumors this winter than Dylan Cease. It has been widely expected the White Sox would move him. He’s down to his final two years of arbitration control and first-year GM Chris Getz has expressed a willingness to reshape the roster.
At the same time, Getz and his front office have set a high goal in trade discussions. Reports have suggested they’re seeking a return built around multiple top prospects. Teams like the Reds, Yankees, Dodgers and Braves were involved in Cease discussions but have pivoted to other free agent/trade targets after balking at Chicago’s ask.
Cease remains with the Sox less than a month from the opening of Spring Training. That has led to increasing speculation that Chicago could hold him into the season. One rival executive cast doubt on a Cease trade to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com yesterday, suggesting the White Sox aren’t showing any interest in backing off their asking price.
That’s a sentiment echoed by a few other reports. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted this morning that a pair of executives outside the organization believe Chicago will hold Cease until the deadline. Robert Murray of FanSided writes that the Sox don’t appear close to any deal, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests there’s a “growing belief” within the industry that Cease stays in Chicago until the summer.
None of that is a guarantee Cease won’t move in the coming weeks. There’s nothing to suggest the White Sox plan to cut off trade dialogue even as they hold firm to a lofty ask. Chicago believed they’d have increased leverage in talks once Yoshinobu Yamamoto came off the board. Yamamoto’s signing didn’t spur a deal, but it’s possible they’re taking a similar stance with regards to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.
The Orioles, Red Sox and Mets have, to varying degrees, been linked to Cease this offseason. The Angels, Padres and Pirates haven’t been directly tied to the righty but are generally known to be looking for starting pitching. Baltimore has perhaps been the subject of the most speculation, a reflection of their loaded minor league pipeline and the benefit of adding a high-octane arm to last year’s 101-win club. Heyman reports that the O’s are reluctant to part with 24-year-old infielder Jordan Westburg, in whom the Sox are apparently showing interest. The former first-round pick hit .260/.311/.404 through his first 68 MLB games and has six years of club control.
Cease agreed to an $8MM salary for his second-to-last season of arbitration. He’s looking to rebound from a somewhat disappointing 2023 campaign in which he posted a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. Cease still throws exceptionally hard and punched out 27.3% of opposing hitters a year ago. If the Sox do hold him into next season, he has the upside to be the most in-demand starter at the deadline.
José Berríos, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle have all returned multiple highly-regarded prospects in summer deals with a year and a half of control. Yet the Sox would also assume the risk of Cease suffering an injury or regression if they hold him for another few months.
It’s the biggest decision for Getz in his first offseason leading baseball operations. He pulled the trigger on a deal sending reliever Aaron Bummer to the Braves for a five-player return at the start of the offseason. Getz and his staff have otherwise slow-played things thus far, supplementing the roster on the margins with fairly low-cost free agent pickups (i.e. Erick Fedde, Martín Maldonado, Chris Flexen, Tim Hill, Paul DeJong).
Yankees now have 6 prospects in BA’s top-100. Cease’s durability would be an excellent addition to the rotation. He would essentially be Jordan Montgomery but with a higher potential peak.
Cease or Luzardo would be perfect, imo. That would complete an excellent offseason.
I’m all in favor of the Yankees making another blunder by trading away talent to acquiring a fly ball pitcher who issues too many free passes and has only 1 truly impressive season.
@martras
You’re talking about Snell, right? That’s won’t play well in Yankee Stadium either.
If it were one for one Westburg for cease make that deal. The Os have plenty of infield talent coming up.
Yes hopefully Cease to the Orioles.
Yeah never wanted Snell on the Yankees. It’s definitely a overpay. The pitcher for the Yankees is Jordan Montgomery, they need to take him out to dinner and beg him to comeback.
@99CaptainJudge99
That seems like a terrible idea. Guy had a high HR-surrender rate while with the Yankees and it wasn’t because he pitched at Yankee Stadium. He moved onto other teams and that rate dropped. For his career, he’s be better suited signing elsewhere.
Old York it’s because he started using his fastball more after leaving the Yankees. I’m sure that wouldn’t change now regardless of what team he goes to.
@Joe says…
Baseball Savant says that in 2021, he was using the FB 16.2% of the time. In 2022, he was with the Yankees and Cardinals and the percentage increased to 17.1 and then in 2023 with the Cardinals/Rangers, that dropped to 10.7.
I was not aware it had dropped. My info is obviously a bit outdated.
@Joe says…
No worries, Joe, we all make mistakes… even Ohtani, who’s $700M isn’t going to be worth that by the time he’s actually paid.
The guy wants to be a ranger. Its not happening.
Sox would want few more guys lol
He would be the headliner though
Clip, why does it benefit the Yanks more to go after Cease, as opposed to Monty (and not lose those top prospects)?
He’s probably about $15 to $20 million cheaper than Montgomery would be annually for the next two years.
The Yanks could p!ss 20 mil. That can’t be the deciding factor..
lets – Cease would cost the Yankees $16.8M this year and if Monty signs for the predicted $150M/6 it would cost the Yankees $52.5M this year which means Cease would be approx $36M cheaper for just 2024 alone.
Fever, yes, but they can retreat below in one year as money comes off the books. For one, I actually don’t believe they’ll sign Soto, but that’s a story for another day. Holding a prospect who will be a low-cost regular soon has to be factored into that financial equation. Trade Dominguez or Jones and then they have to spend more elsewhere.
Lord – Agreed! That is why I didn’t go beyond this year, anything can happen.
Who knows, they could even dump salary this year …. doubtful, but you never know.
I think they do re-sign Soto, provided he has another good year of course. I think the only thing that can prevent him from being re-signed is if Stanton has a monster year.
Cease has contract this year of 8 million…
luxury tax
Trumbo, I would love to have the durable Monty back. I just believe that if given the choice, Cashman will go the trade route rather than spend more in FA. I hope I am wrong in that assessment.
Yanks can easily afford him, but it seems evident to me (knowing Cashman) they are out on any of the higher-priced guys. It frustrates me to no end too! I’d rather the Yanks spend the money on FA, which they basically print, than trade away any more top prospects, honestly.
How about winning it the right way and stop trying to poach players for your overrated prospects?
Winning “the right way”? And what way would that be? LOL every winning team complements any homegrown players with those that it trades for or signs in free agency. Go look at how many players the Rangers obtained in those ways. They wouldn’t have won without them.
The Yankees haven’t won anything in almost 15 seasons! Let’s stop pretending that they are some Goliath who gets all the best players and has been piling up the rings. At best , recent memory shows that they’ve been an overhyped, overpaid team who has done a whole lot of money wasting and failed at their “yearly goal” of winning championships.
Liberal Steve, seek help. The Yankees are living in your head. “Try to win the right way”,”poaching players”, “overrated prospects”.
Surprised you haven’t dragged out the good ol’ “trying to buy a championship” comment or “they’re all on steroids,”.
Boring stuff,man. Need to do better.
It doesn’t seem like everyone is lining up to get the overrated Cease. Obviously the White Sox must lower their asking price if they want to trade him.
Why everyone believes the hype of the AL Cental? Orioles & Yankees won’t win the Central. Orioles have problems on the mound & they know it. Yankees problem is they love their prospects more than every team in baseball does. If they did love their prospects theyd be in majors already instead of signing “Big” free agents every year. WTH with the Blake Snell hype. In 8 years he’s had exactly 4 winning seasons. He’s going to be hammered in Yankee stadium. I truly hope W. SOX don’t trade Cease for magic worthless beans from Yankees. Orioles wll not be in contention after 3 months of season.
Yankees problem is they love their prospects more than every team in baseball does.
=====================
I’ve been saying this for a long time. Cashman got excoriated over the years for not developing a farm. He’s fixed that, but might now be afraid to weaken the farm.
Getz is in over his head. He doesn’t know what the hell he’s doing. He either asks for too much for a top player or buys every piece of garbage out there (see list at the end of the article). He can be taken and the other teams know this. When he does trade Cease as part of his “retooling”, he’ll get peanuts in return.
The Orioles problems on the mound are overstated. The Orioles were 7th in team ERA in the MLB last year and ranked ahead of the Yankees, Astros, Phillies, Braves, and Dodgers. The AL east still looks like the Orioles are favored because the Jays and Rays look like they have gotten worse this off-season whereas the Orioles have remained relatively the same.
@DeepDown
I’ll take that bet. How do you want to define “in contention? After 3 mos, how about Baltimore not at least 3rd place in ALE?
With or without Cease, the O’s aren’t going to evaporate in 3 months.
Yeah, lol, “three months into the season” all but 5 teams will be “in contention,” the Orioles among them
Funny how the victims of said poaching are usually more than happy to shed salary and players they won’t be extending anyways for young, cheap controllable talent.
Clip, I thought you had blocked me lol Your original post wasn’t appearing for like 5 mins. I was numb almost haha I thought I went overboard with my Yanks talk
Lol…No way, Trumbo! I would never! You’re one of the inner circle guys, like Ray Liotta in Goodfellas…
Reminds me when I blocked Bucky, who I’m now assuming passed to the great beyond. I actually did block him by total accident. He had to get someone else here (it might have even been you!) to message me to unblock him. I only have about a half dozen mutes, but I do go check it once a month to make sure there’s no accidental blocks in there. It’s easier to do than I realized. Hasn’t happened since.
Yankees should make the deal. Very few prospects they’ve regretted trading in recent years.
Clipper if you look at Baseball Savant you will change your mind on Cease. He has some troubling trends with his pitch metrics. Especially with his slider. Maybe Blake can work some of his magic. But for the cost I’d want some certainty.
Definitely all in on Luzardo.
JoeSays: Yeah, that’s a concern for sure. But, it makes more sense as to why Cease struggled. The price tag on him is definitely too high given those to pitch trends. Thanks for pointing that out, man.
Luzardo is younger and going in the opposite direction.
Yankees have 6 top 100 prospects bc there’s more yankee fans than any other fans and prospect lists are click bait. Lots of dumb gms learned that the hard way
That’s the dumbest thing I’ve read all morning. The Yankees prospect list has nothing to do with their fanbase. I guess Baltimore’s 6 in the top 50 means Birdland has even more fans than New York? Keep swinging and missing, bud.
It’s because NY is the media center and the sportswriters are parochial.
Clip, the pending rise of the Yankee farm system was predicted a year back based on some draft and development changes they made. Multiple talent evaluators said their FCL was one of the most talented and packed teams they’ve seen in decades. In addition to the six, there’s another four or five who received top-100 votes.
BA remains the gold standard with prospect rankings. They’re often ahead at recognizing prospects, with the other rating publications falling in line over the following year. All have value though as they have slightly different talent rating views. That said, the prospects are further away, so while the Yankees and Orioles both lead MLB with six, the O’s are closer and thus will be more valued in trades at the moment. There’s also the danger you trade away some low-A prospect like Fred McGriff before you know what he is and regret it for the next twenty years. What team did that?! Still not as bad as a high-revenue team trading away a young, generational star like Mookie Betts who was already MVP-level in the majors.
It’s clear the Yankees have no intention of trading the top prospects higher up, like Dominguez and Jones. Similar to when they had no intention of trading Judge to the White Sox for Quintana in the 2026/17 offseason. Funny though as many White Sox fans here had no interest in Judge.
I bring all this up since you seem to want to trade some of those six prospects for Cease. I’d rather they bring back their former prospect and pitcher in Montgomery. Keep the prospects, use the cash instead. Just requires the will on the Yankees side and for Boras to free them! I believe teams are holding firm knowing eventually he has to make a move. The Yankees signing Stroman within hours of Boras rejecting their Snell bid was a shot across his bow.
L99: J completely agree with you there. First, I didn’t realize that they predicted this a year ago; I missed that somewhere, but thanks for the background on that. I usually use BA because they do seem to have a better read in the prospects.
But, in reference to Monty, I agree. I would rather the Yanks acquire a known durable pitcher for money, so they can continue ie to develop potential future players – I guess my problem is they don’t seem to do either one (trade or acquire when they should). My concern is that Cashman will wait until the trade deadline, as usual, and then seriously overpay for a SP.
My opinion, which could be wrong, is that waiting until the trade deadline will increase the ask on these guys because there is a deadline, and more teams will know for sure they’re in the playoff hunt.
But, yes, Monty would be the optimal choice right now.
Predicted probably is too strong a word on my part. Perhaps “suspected” would be softer and better. I heard some in BA chats with their writers reporting what other trans were noting; I also know Law mentioned it last offseason, with the caveat that there’s high variability with prospects further off. The influx definitely positively impacted their FCL team and is starting to show up in rankings. The system could take a big leap forward this season, but these guys are still far enough off that much could still derail them.
Second straight day autocorrect assumes I want to write trans instead of teams. Odd.
My voice-to-text will never allow me to say “pitchers” – no matter how forcefully I over enunciate the word – without changing it to “pictures.” Even when it makes no goddamn sense at all.
They always do and 5% pan out
Where would you put him in their rotation? Middle relief? I could see Nasty moving to the pen. He could hold down 2-3 innings.
My worry about the Yankees trading the farm for Cease is that he turns into a lefty Javy Vazquez. I know Cease pitches in Chicago and they have a pretty tough media but something tells me with his control problems he’s a bad fit. If Miami is listening I like Luzardo a lot more and he’ll be a little bit cheaper in what they’d have to give up. I really wish Cashman hadn’t insulted Monty on his way out because he is the guy the Yankees need a dependable starter who takes the ball 30 times a year and competes. I don’t personally like Stroman but something tells me he’s got a big chip on his shoulder and the Yankees are gonna get a big year out of him. It’s only gonna be one year and then he’ll start his Stroman sh#$. But if you could slide Monty or Luzardo behind Cole and Stroman they would be looking pretty good.
Sox are really dumb to wait until the summer. That will backfire on them.
They still have 2 months now to get a deal done.
Still plenty of time.
@roob
with their pitiful farm and major league club… you might just shorten that sentence to “Sox are really dumb.”
their Low A, high A and AAA teams are within a short drive from me, they’ve really bottomed out compared to previous years.
I’m rooting for them to bounce back but they seem rudderless and drifting aimlessly in the vast ocean of yawn.
I bet Getz will get a trade done by early March. Lot of demand.
Out of all the player names that keep getting repeated OVER and OVER between all the baseball blog sites I read, in article after article, I think the name Dylan Cease is the name that I am sick of hearing the most. (Nothing personal Dylan) But can we “s $ % t or get off the pot” on this trade, boys. I don’t think I can handle one more updated Dylan Cease trade rumor status post.
Especially since there is really NO UPDATE. Its just rehash. If its not new, its not news.
Sorry to disappoint you, but until he is traded these rumors will never Cease.
Good one!
I just don’t get the ask. Honestly, he’s not that good. 3 top prospects for a guy coming off a 458 era
One excellent season. Again, I don’t get why so many are mesmerized by this guy
analytics. spin rate, k%, etc.
Some of those “analytics” are negative, like loss of velocity.
Ya that ole’ pesky supply and demand. Something that drives value and price. There are just not many SPs on the market. I am not convinced Burnes or Luzardo are, if they ARE on the market then the Yankees and Orioles are swinging and missing at them too. Tells me both those programs are low-balling other teams.
By that “logic,” every team is low-balling the White Sox.
The only way Getz is going to get a deal done by March will be if he comes to his senses and lowers his asking price. He isn’t trying to trade Sandy Koufax, this is Dylan Cease.Cease’s fastball is down in velocity, and his track record varies. Getz isn’t getting two top prospects, plus more, for that. If the deal was out there, it’d have been done by now.
This has Matthew Boyd written all over it, ask Detroit how that worked out for them. Ahahaha!
Westburg is a pretty logical headliner for both sides, I wonder if Chicago’s demands for the rest of the package are what is causing Elias to hesitate or if he is genuinely that high on Westburg.
KFloch: Indeed Westburg is the pre-developed headliner I’ve mentioned from start for a WSox orgztn that is incapable of developing position players for about last 20 years. Getz gets it if holding that line…..they’d ruin Mayo or Cowser until proven otherwise.
Ortiz is that perfect 2nd (multiple) prospect since he is a very good defensive SS they also struggle to teach. If limited upside on offense, so be it if just okay.
Throw in couple lower end system pitchers that are up to WSox revamped pitching lab guys to develop and that should do it.
I think if Westburg is the headliner, Ortiz will not be included. Norby might be.
(2) primarily 2B? Norby seems like a duplication if Westburg winds up settled headliner. Benintendi also has 4yrs left on pricey deal as LF only guy.
Norby is a better hitter than Benintendi. Getz is stuck with a suck contract but that doesn’t mean he has to be hindered by the bad player in Benintendi; he could just waive him. Norby and Westburg are different players in many ways.
Supposedly, Getz wanted Cowser, Kjerstad, and more from the Orioles for Cease.
Dec was shoot for the moon at first to detect desperation with the FA starter market being pricey and bad. If you are at the Westburg is a reluctant headliner point like article here says-then the buyer has to be realistic it’s not going to be a collection of lesser guys. This is good progress for a win-win deal framework to get settled.
I’d pivot from Cease and look at a deal for Cabrera or Luzardo. Hampton and even Arias are on the table if it’s possible to get Luzardo and/or Arraez.
Hampton is the last guy I’d want to trade. I think of all the prospects the Yankees have, he is going to be the best. Still, if it’s for Luzardo, I’d have to seriously consider it.
If the Marlins would take Hampton, a guy who regressed when he got promoted to AA, for Jesus Luzardo (and there would be much more going), the Yankees would RUN, not WALK to the fax machine to sign off on the trade.
You really believe the Yankees have not asked about Luzardo? There were rumors weeks ago Miami was listening on him (and Cabrera). I can assure you Cashman called (if he didn’t then he should be fired). And since NO deal has even come close, it tells me the Yankees are not paying the price for either of those guys as well. Yankees and Orioles fans can keep blaming White Sox management for not taking the crap being offered, but it seems those teams are not getting anything done with anyone.
@PinstripedPride – Luzardo would cost way, way more than Cease should. Cabrera might be more expensive still, depending on how Miami views him. If Cabrera gets the walks under control he could be dominant.
If the White Sox do decide to trade him , I’d like to see maybe Cowser or Mayo as a headliner , Westburg or Ortiz , Cade Povich , a lotto ticket ranked between Baltimore’s 20 and 30 , and two young pitchers outside Baltimore’s top 30 for Dylan Cease and Gregory Santos. Baltimore keeps a loaded farm system and gets the TOR rotation arm they covet Plus a back end Bullpen piece.
Move on from the Yankees. I remember getting their “top prospects” Jeff Gray, Blake Rutherford, and Ian Clarkin. Hard pass.
That is laughable and exactly why there has been no agreement to date. Chicago is asking for way too much, overvaluing Cease and to an extent the Orioles are overvaluing some of their prospects but I’d much prefer them overvalue their talent compared to getting fleeced. If they are packaging 3 of these top prospects then they can do much better than Cease. They should be holding onto Basallo, Mayo and one of Westburg/Ortiz anyway. It’s very likely they will have the number one prospect again next season with Basallo and Mayo has an outside shot as well. I’m not trading either one unless I’m getting a true frontline starter with 2+ years of control (looking at you, SEA).
Where in my proposal did I mention Basallo? And I said Mayo OR Cowser. Reading comprehension is fundamental. White Sox don’t need Basallo, they have Edgar Quero, Korey lee, and Adam Hackenberg not to mention Ronnie Hernandez in the lower levels. They are actually okay at catcher at the moment. And who out there is actually better than Dylan Cease that will only cost $8 million? The Marlins aren’t trading Jesus Luzardo, and the Orioles aren’t paying $270 million for Blake Snell, and even if they did they’d regret that contract before the ink dried. Seattle isn’t trading their pitching either, they’re trying to contend.
Yes, reading comprehension is fundamental and I’d suggest that you reread the comment and you may see that not once did I mention that your proposal included Basallo. I said your proposal was laughable and then I went further and said that CHICAGO is asking for too much – if you have been paying attention you’d know that there have been several names reportedly tossed around, Basallo and Holiday included. So yes, Chicago is asking for too much and your proposal is laughable – they can both be true at the same time and one is independent from the other. Reading comprehension is fundamental.
No, it’s not too much for a 99mph throwing SP with a devastating slider who’s also durable as anybody.
With any other team with a better lineup, bullpen, defense, his stats would be ace like.
Actually there are peripherals that indicate that isn’t as true or a sure thing as you seem to believe. Look into them and you’ll understand, or you should. Obviously they are asking for too much, otherwise he’d already be on another team.
So the lost velocity is the defense’s fault?
But they weren’t the Yankees top prospects. That was the White Sox dumping Frazier, etc. and as I noted, White Sox fans were strongly against trading Quintana in a Judge deal over 2016/17 offseason.
In the end, you got Jiminez midseason and Dylan Cease at a midseason deal. Maybe you’ll do as well again. They’re probably thinking similar, but there is some risk.
Mayo is going nowhere, period.
The White Sox are waiting for that deal of 21′ Cease. It’s not gonna happen. O’s should move on and let the Sox hold the bag. Cease value drops when the season starts.
Sfu13 is this a Getz burner account?
I don’t even think Chris Getz is asking for this much.
Meanwhile, the front office squanders the guy’s prime.
I don’t see how this crop of White Sox starters covers their innings without Cease. At only $8mil, I think Getz is perfectly fine to retain Cease if nobody wants to value durability and high end stuff. Without Cease they easily lose 100 games and Getz won’t accept that, unless someone pays dearly.
As of right now, if a fan wanted to go to a game, they’d probably wait for a day that Cease is pitching. I would.
Cub fans, would you do Brown, Owen Caissie, Wicks, Christian Hernandez, and two lotto tickets outside your top 30 for Dylan Cease and Gregory Santos? You keep your top arm in Cade Horton, and your top Outfield prospects and add both a starter and Elite bullpen arm. Thoughts?
Sfu13
I think J. Wicks and B. Brown for just Cease would be the max.
Manny, what if take out Brown, headline with Caissie and Wicks, two lower level guys like a Tito Polo type for just Dylan Cease? Didn’t know if you guys needed a bullpen guy which is why I suggested Santos especially if it could increase the return.
I’d like the jays to trade for Eloy to be there DH
Texas is a sneaky team for Cease.
As a White Sox fan I am intrigued by the Rangers if they were interested. Would you do Wyatt Langford as the headliner with Justin Foscue and Kumar Rocker, Antoine Kelly, and two lower level guys outside your top 30 for Dylan Cease and Gregory Santos? I know I keep Packaging cease and Santos together, but it just seems like it makes sense.
The Rangers wouldn’t trade Langford straight up for Cease. That proposal would be a massive overpay by them.
We have gone down this road before I think. Lankford > cease. In fact lankford is so good he’s worth Robert. Not a Texas fan by any means so chew on the reality of that for a while.
They’re not moving Langford.
I could see him getting delt sometime in spring training. There’s bound to be some contender with a pitching injury that bites the bullet and makes the trade.
Cy young candidate coming off a 4.58 ERA down year… why bother attempting to sell low? Either a team with massive confidence in Cease suddenly overwhelms the Sox with an offer or wait half a season to see if they’re a playoff race and if Cease can recover his blue chip trade value… not much more to it.
This guy is incredibly overrated. I don’t know why People are acting like he has a fantastic track record over the past 5 seasons?.. he doesn’t.
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Not that I have faith in the orioles anymore, but Baltimore shouldn’t trade a huge prospect for a guy like him. Burnes would be worth it if you can sign him to an extension, but people did to get over Cease. He had one good year out of 5.
Burnes would be out of Milwaukee if Boras wasn’t his agent. Plus he has already stated he is going FA. Otherwise he would be in black and orange.
I love how people use selectivity to model their opinions. Cease has had 5 years. You say? His first year was his rookie year, 2nd year was COVID. He pitched 58 innins one year, 72 the other. In what world can you classify these as a full year? Cease showed great progress from 2019 to 2020. And took another solid step in 2021, that was a solid year. Then 2022 was great before a poor season in 2023.
If the Orioles had the stones to get Burnes they would have by now. Burnes was on the block this winter, but he remains in Milwaukee. Looks like the Orioles did not offer what the Brewers (or Miami for Luzardo) wanted either. Maybe the problem isn’t’ the White Sox, it’s the Orioles. After trading mid prospects for the dud that was Flaherty they are apprehensive about going after a higher upside arm. That’s OK to admit that, but don’t act like Cease is garbage, an objective view of his career shows promise.
The O’s aren’t gonna deal 2-3 prospects knowing Burnes is leaving. That is that situation and we all know it. So don’t act like it’s dumb not to trade for him.
For the record I think the O’s can fix Cease. But them not meeting the 2022 price is a smart move, same as Burnes deal.
And that’s why I said, Burnes would be worth it if the orioles know they can sign him to an extension. I wouldn’t give up any big prospect for a 1 year rental
I think the Os are valuing their prospects as if they aren’t blocked or losing trade value by being a year older. Ortiz and Norby both put up .840 OPS or higher in AAA full time and both Cowser and Kjerstad had an OPS over .900 in the minors this year. This is all in the international league which isn’t as hitter friendly as the PCL is notorious for being. Most teams don’t have 2 of those types of guys available to trade. If you put Ortiz and Norby in another system, they’d be seen as the cream of the crop and you’d be on your way to a deal after adding some more. Since the Os system is so deep and rich the other team would hang up immediately if the top of a package was Ortiz and Norby.
You just proved my point. He’s pitched off and on over the last 5 years and has one good season to show for it 2 years ago, but teams are acting like he’s top notch ACE at this point. And not once did I use the word “full year”
Baltimore will absolutely not go after Burnes and I’ll be completely shocked if they even get Cease, Baltimore doesn’t know what pitching is, they haven’t had an ace in over 20 years. They always have good/great hitting, but don’t know how to go after pitching. I’m done with them, it’s a false hope team
@dude
Don’t go, we can’t do it without you! Please, please reconsider and give the Orioles another chance. You’re our only hope!
Seriously, I don’t fault you for being frustrated with Baltimore’s track record in true aces. Bedard was a long time ago despite his flame out in Seattle, he did what he had to to net the pieces for the turn around. Not a lot of Mussina and Bedard types since for sure.
You can’t really paint the entire org with one brush stroke though. FOs come and go and the philosophy and ability to identify and develop are vastly different from admin to admin. Only constant is the Angelos family and despite the fact I have nothing positive to say about Port-a-John, even he probably isn’t interfering to that level in the scouting and development of pitchers.
They’ve had an amazing run of picking and developing bats and defense, verdict is out for the next phase of pitcher development. The book isn’t closed on the franchise. Hope is what every fan thrives on.
I’ve been watching them for going on 40 years and in my lifetime, i believe every MLB team has at least MADE IT to the World Series except for Baltimore. (And 2 other teams)
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And for the “we can’t do it without you” comment, dude, they can’t do it regardless lol It’s a team that gives false hope year after year and decade after decade. I’ve wasted almost 40 years watching and rooting for them to make it to a World Series. There comes a point where you just have to say (I’m done) nobody in their right mind should stick around for another 10 years waiting for it to happen because it won’t. And if by some miracle they do win in the next decade, I can care less.
GrOD Almighty looks to be a certain TOR and Bradish pitched like one last year, so he might prove to be TOR also.
Cease will get killed in Cincy, the Bronx or other side of Chicago. I can see the Orioles or Mets making a deal in July. Mets should stay away. 2025 rotation could look like: Senga, Burnes, Woodruff, Manea, Vasil.
My Phillies have several young SP prospects they could trade for Cease. Would love to see Cease in Philly this year.
Phillies could be a wildcard. Their system isn’t that great and Andrew Painter is certainly off any tables. Would Philly consider Abel? He really rebounded last year so the Phillys may see him as part of their future. If the Sox could get Abel and Crawford that would make some sense. I like Carl’s kid, but his upside is really limited with his complete lack of power. I don’t think it would hurt the Phillies to move him. Abel? I am not sure about. I love the way he rebounded this past year. But he’s still an unproven prospect.
I’m trying to remember the last offseason as boring as this one. Can anyone remind me?
There was a bit of fun at the beginning when Canadians thought Shohei was on a plane there, and a bit of hype over Yamamoto, but otherwise this has been deadly dull. Some guys with not too much going for them other than the slim pickings on the market, holding out to see if they can turn that into monster deals for mediocre (at best) players.
As an old White Sox fan, I hope the Sox keep Cease. He has many attributes and is definitely a Cy Young candidate. He is still relatively young and has a blazing fast ball. Winning ball games starts with good pitching and Cease is better than good. He and Luis Robert could be great ball players this year.
I agree. Cease is the difference between 75 and 72 wins for the WS. They should keep him and enjoy those 3 extra wins.
LOL
The Winter of Our Cease Content
Sox are very much hoping the O’s want to make a deal, but they are a small market team, they won around 100 games last year without him, and they are trying to sell the team. The Sox FO might need to adjust expectations to better align with what anyone else is willing to pay.
Of all the teams I find the O’s the least likely to trade a haul for Cease. They holding prospects tightly. Which they should because soon enough their other guys will start to cost a lot and they will trade them. O’s should follow the Rays. Lock up one or two guys. Then trade the other with 2-3 service time left and bring up the next guy to replace them. Add on the fringes to fill other holes.
O’s should be in the business to trade prospects for low controlled players that cost a ton of prospects. Playoffs are a crap shoot anyways. The O’s should be a playoff team without adding a guy like Cease.
Just because we have yet to see the Orioles trade top prospects doesn’t mean it is certain never to happen. I just don’t see them trading Holliday, Basallo or Mayo.
I never said certain, I said least likely.
Right, but it’s mid-January and our expectations could be changed at any time from “least likely” to “hey, they made a trade using their prospects.” I’d be more surprised if they don;t make at least one trade before OD involving their prospects.
Just do something! These Cease reports are getting sooo old. I hear there’s a cricket team in India that needs a pitcher
I think you mean bowler, Barold
You’re right….. that Hurts
Risky move by the WS. Performance or injury issues could push his value down substantially. I remember years ago, a non-competitive Padres team could have traded Tyson Ross before the season but didn’t and he promptly went out and got injured the very first game. I remember the Cubs were interested and the rumors were that then prospect Javy Baez had been offered. I hope that doesn’t happen here but it’s a big gamble.
Based on the poor offers the value is down. Hell, from what I am reading the primary piece in these offers is no better than a comp pick Cease would get in two years. Sox should just keep him, try to compete (as much as that’s unlikely) and worry about Cease down the line. They stand to get nothing by trading Cease for a bunch of minor league filler. I credit Getz for asking for a great package. His initial ask of 3 top 100 guys is just his opening salvo. He has to come down off that some, but these other teams have to also come up off their lame ass offers as well, and removing flawed prospects from talks is just as much a reason nothing is getting done as Getz’s lofty ask.
Yes, of course. It’s hard to know what the offers are. If they are not good, then they have to keep him for now. It’s just risky to keep him IMO but your point is well taken.
I do not see the O’s trading Westburg. That is too high a price for a pitcher who has been trending down statistically. Hays, Ortiz, Norby and Fabian should be enough.
Question is, will the Orioles do anything?!
If Cease is “trending down” and not really much of anything, why even bother trading for him? Sounds like he won’t help the Orioles, SInce he’s just not that good. Hmmm. Orioles management knows Cease has a great arm, is controlled for 2 years and is a perfect change of scenery candidate after the complete disaster the White Sox were last year. A rejuvenated team with guys who can catch the ball to spell some upside here.
The package you offered is certainly not enough, it’s just a bunch of guys (Norby isn’t bad though). Westberg is not the 2nd coming of George Brett here. People so over-rate prospects. Even Cowser and Mayo have flaws in their game, but lets not talk about the “questions” over the can’t miss, super hero prospects.
Every single star MLB player was a prospect with flaws…
A bunch of guys? That’s 2 top 100 prospects AND an All-Star.
All for a ‘flawed’ starter with great potential, under the right coaching.
Cease has more than potential. He “showed” he could be a solid to good (2020 and 2021) or even great (2022) pitcher against MLB hitters. He had a bad 2023 and that is held against him, rightly so on some level, but the entire argument can’t focus on that alone. It just can’t. His expected stats were much better than what he showed, the White Sox were a complete abortion of a team with horrible culture and a ridiculously bad defense.
I’d put more faith in a guy who has DONE it at the MLB level over a prospect who has not.
And as I’ve said again and again if the Orioles don’t want a “flawed’ starter, then go get Burnes. One year of control, but other than that he’s pretty much perfect. Truth is they don’t want to pay for him either. They are shopping in the Cease aisle hoping to get him for pennies on the dollar. I bet they low-balled Milwaukee too arguing he had only 1 year of control. I’ll believe the Orioles are serious about adding an SP when i actually see it.
We agree on these points 100%. But Cease being underrated wasn’t was I found an issue with your comment. You spoke about the basically lame package for Cease ND calling them flawed prospects. They ALL are. Burnes could be the difference between the O’s being true contenders vs playoff hopefuls. But the pricd for 1 year isn’t worth it.
“why even bother trading for him?” I agree which is why most teams are passing.
I could see the O’s trading Westburg. They have had Jackson Holliday practicing at 2nd over the winter and Mayo could fit at 3rd. The Orioles also have Urias and Ortiz who can play the infield until Mayo and Holliday are ready.
I would think a good offer for Cease would be Westburg, Norby, and Povich.
As a White Sox fan, I could live with that package and be satisfied. It’s strong, gets the White Sox what they want, and Baltimore keeps a loaded farm system to draw from to remain competitive.
Candidacy? Interesting word choice. Makes it sound like he’s the one making the choice not the White Sox.
Chris Getz had the best offer on the table from the braves and he turned down Grissom, Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver and Douglas Glod because he wanted Waldrep in the deal as well. He has until spring training to get that kind of deal and if he goes into the season that value drops significantly unless Cease is a cy young contender and lets say he blows his arm out in May then he will basically get nothing for him except maybe a comp pick in 2026.
Sorry that’s truly not a great offer and I think Getz was right to turn it down so early in the off-season. AJSS is the best piece there and even he is not a tremendous upside guy no matter what PR spin we get. Grissom can’t play defense. The other two guys are whatever.
The acquiring team has to accept the possibility that they are getting the 2023 Cease in ’24 with only one year to recoup some value. White Sox big ask pushes risk to whomever meets it. Yankees have already traded prospects. They’d be better served by doing things a little differently
This guy isn’t getting traded
It’s beyond my pay grade the Orioles haven’t acquired an established top of rotation pitcher. They need an experienced vet to lead the talented young staff. Most perplexing, is their roster/farm is overloaded with top young talent and they can’t play all of them.
With a TOR the Orioles are the odds on favorite. Ok, so Cease isn’t that good, then the Orioles should quit asking about him and go get Burnes, Luzardo or whoever else we think is available. Orioles have not even been rumored to be serious contenders for either Luzardo or Burnes, which tells me the Orioles have no interest in playing big boy baseball and would rather clutch onto their prospects. Which is probably why they are trying to buy low on Cease, thinking they can get him for minor league filler.
Orioles could have Burnes today and would still have a great farm if they so chose. Orioles are posers and are gunning for another AAA title this year.
Rangers won it last year while Orioles were twiddling their thumbs. Rangers paid to get Monty (Sagasse and Roby are very interesting prospects) while Orioles were shopping on the reduced rack and grabbed Flaherty (Drew ROm?LMAO), who was god-awful. Rangers have a championship, Orioles have some great prospects. Maybe the Orioles can hang a banner for that.
Luzardo would be ideal for Balt. Cheap TOR (6m in’24 and 3 more years of control (though arb prices will increase). Marlins looking for SS. CF and Orioles have a number of quality, very inexpensive cost controlled options to deal.
The issue with the Luzardo deal is that the Marlins insisted on Mullins. CF is just about the only position that the Orioles cant backfill with an elite prospect. Hopefully EBJ becomes a great player at some point but he isnt going to help the Os in 2024.
Ironic. Mullins is an ok CF but it would have taken a lot more to nab Luzardo.
Yeah it would take more than just Mullins. I meant they insisted on him being a part of the deal. I’m sure it would also take some top prospects to get Luzardo as well. The information also comes from reports around last year’s trade deadline so it may not apply anymore as the marlins have a new front office. Also the Marlins may feel different after Mullins disappointing second half last year as well.
Westburg and more. Marlins need a SS too. Not sure they’d want Mullins salary. He’s making 6m. Actually more than Luzardo (though that won’t last long).
For as many times as I read people claim Elias is a “prospect-hugger,” this off-season is the first true period during which we could expect him to trade high-end prospects. And we’re over two months from Opening Day still. So I’ll reserve that judgment until April.
PS: Rumor is the person who is the prospect-hugger is Sig Mejdal, not Elias.
How in the hell did the redsox get grisham for sale. Smdh
People calling Cease’s near Cy Young year the anomaly clearly haven’t looked at the numbers very closely.
He had 2 bad months last year, no question. 5.57 in May and 8.07 in August. Brutal. But if you consider those 2 months the anomaly and remove them from his numbers (which I know you can’t in real life, but when trying to determine who he is as a pitcher, it’s a good exercise), his ERA would be 2.67 and 1.17 WHIP over the past 2 full years, and over the 3 years it would be 3.11 / 1.20 with 603 Ks in 465 IP.
Sick numbers, and a great pitcher who had 2 rough months and a BRUTAL White Sox defense last year. I can imagine going through a rough patch or two with the dysfunction going on there.
So – I’m fine with them waiting, I suspect he’ll have a great first half and the Sox can move him for a lot, or if they shock the world and are near .500 (i.e. close to the lead in the Central), maybe even keep him.
Yea for sure. If Eloy can stay healthy, they catch the ball better and just have a better cultural dynamic that could help.
What if Kopech finally realizes his potential? What if Crochett who has an electric arm takes to the rotation in spades? What if Fedde is a revelation after honing a new pitch overseas? What if Soroka or Shuster get their mojo? Then Cease. I will admit it’s a very long shot most of this happens, but it could happen, and the Sox could have a very interesting rotation. If the Sox don’t get what they believe to be fair value for Cease, tell those teams to go pound sand, and just go play baseball.
Suggesting “his value will go down” is a hollow argument considering teams are clearly low-balling the Sox just as much as people claim Getz is asking for too much.
All is true. I feel sox won the bummer trade. You forgot to include improved defense if he isn’t traded.
The fallacy that if the trade has not been made then every team is “low-balling” the Sox for Cease is getting tired. Maybe it’s just that Getz wants to see if he can get a little more over the next month or so – he has nothing to lose by waiting.
People calling Cease’s near Cy Young year the anomaly
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I’m not saying he can’t pitch, but his best ERA, besides the 2.20, was 3.91. TBH, skip ERA entirely and go with FIP. It was 3.72 against a career 3.86. That’s what he is.
His FIP the last 3 years was 3.41, 3.10 and 3.72 and is making $8M this year. Gerrit Cole’s was 2.92, 3.47 and 3.16, making a tiny bit more. Zac Gallen’s is 4.25, 3.05, 3.26. Valdez is 4.01, 3.06, 3.50. Alcantara 3.42, 2.99, 4.03. Hell, Corbin Burnes had a higher FIP than Cease did last year (3.81). If you want to ‘skip ERA entirely and go with FIP’, you should probably check that and compare him to others who are considered aces.
Most of the rest of the guys on the Cy Young list over the last 3 years are either similar, have had much worse FIPs during that time (Rodon, Manoah), major injuries/other issues (DeGrom, McClanahan, Fried, Urias) or much older (Verlander, Scherzer).
Why would I want to judge pitchers by throwing out 80% of the data points?
80% of which data points? 2 months out of 3 seasons (6 months per year) is 2/18, or 11%?
Every batted ball that doesn’t clear the various fences around MLB.
I look forward to see him going 8-20 this year for the white Sox.
You are correct, reading comprehension is fundamental! I said that your proposal was laughable – Westburg, Mayo and Povich and/or a combination of the others you mentioned. I then went further to say that “Chicago is asking for way too much…” which very clearly indicates a transition away from your proposal being laughable and into them asking for too much, which if you’ve been paying attention, has at one time or another, included the names I mentioned, mainly Basallo. They were reportedly asking for Holiday at one point as well. So , I’ll say it again, Chicago is asking for too much for Cease.
ZERO ZERO evidence they asked for Holliday. No evidence. NONE at all. And just some hack on twitter doesn’t count.
Westberg, Mayo and Povich. You mean the Mayo with the hit tool questions? And Povich with a 5+ ERA in AAA? Those guys? I am NOT saying Mayo or Povich are not good, in fact, I think they CAN BE very good, but so can Cease. As far as Westberg he is far from a superstar prospect. While he has a bit of pop and maybe could get to 15 steals, his hit tool grades in the 40 range and he’s not a strong defender. Again, why is this guy so celebrated? Solid prospect, but not a can’t miss star.
As I said I do like Mayo, JW and Povich, but mainly for their unrealized potential, which is far from a given. And It’s grossly one-sided to point to the one bad Cease year while suggesting asking for a AAA pitcher with a +5 ERA and another hitter with potential hit tool concerns is “asking for too much”.
The Os are treating their prospects like a Mormon who just left Utah… You have 4 wives, and you can’t have 4 middle infielders. Hanging on to them like they are gold and starting Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin will be the reason you don’t win in the playoffs again.
This is a nonsensical post, top to bottom.
You are confusing the words “proof” and “evidence.” There is no proof. But rumors are evidence, like it or not.
seeking a return built around multiple top prospects.
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FWIW, that description is just about useless. It’s like asking someone how much they want for their 1915 Ruth, and the responding “a Lot”.
Given that a “top prospect” could be anywhere from maybe #10 to maybe #40, and multiple could mean 2, 3, 4, then the range is from a #10, #20, and #30 to two #40s.
If you don’t know, then you don’t know. But if you are going to reference a possible return, then there should be some level of specificity to it, like “a top-25, a top-100, and two decent lottery tickets”.
The O’s have the pieces but the Pirates have the pieces to overbid and get this deal done.
A rotation for end of the year with Cease, Keller, Skenes as your top 3 is nice heading into 2025.
Would be incredibly epic for Pittsburgh to trade for Cease.
I think everyone is overblowing regression and injury.
Cease doesn’t get his credit because he’s on an overlooked badly run organization.
Y’all saw the defense behind him last year?
Yes but this season white Sox actually improved the defense. Offense is still a ?.
Correct in the sense a better run organization would have traded him when he had value.
Reds or Orioles are pretty logical landing spots.
Likely going to be more competition at the deadline and if Cease pitches anywhere close to what he did in 2022, the return could look a lot like the Luis Castillo package
Sox needed a 2B and a RF for years.
Baltimore would be a good fit, because the Sox need Colton Cowser. Unfortunately for the O’s, the sox would also require a great young pitcher, which they don’t have to offer.
I think GMs realize which teams are pitching-prospect strong and which are position-prospect strong – and they adjust their trade offers to accommodate strengths. I doubt Getz would be talking with Elias if a cease trade hinges on pitching prospects.
I am so glad the Reds didn’t bite on Cease. If he gets hurt or pitches like he did last year, the White Sox won’t even get a lottery ticket for him. There is a reason the White Sox never win.
What would have been a win-win offer for Cease? Luzardo?
What starter do you want them to acquire given that’s what held them back from WC berth in surprising ’23 season?
Reminds me of when back in the 2000s when the Orioles wanted Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto and others for Erik Bebard. How did that that turn out?
They got Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill and Kam Mickolio. At that time, a comparable prospect return for Bedard.
Right now, its a staring contest. The White Sox are waiting for the Orioles to bite. The Orioles are waiting for the White Sox to lower their asking price.
Cease slots in the top half of the Orioles’ rotation and its needed much more than the Orioles let on. If G Rodriguez and Bradish pitch anywhere close to their 2nd halves last year that’s all you can reasonably hope for and Cease would approach that level. That leaves Means who is an effective but not overpowering starter, and options for the 5th led by Kremer who was league-average later in the season. But settling for less, like an Irvin to be the 5th starter or pick one off the scrap heap is not adequate.
The Orioles have to be the biggest prospect-hugging team in the league and no one values their prospects higher. Matt Wieters was supposed to be Johnny Bench II, and was hyped so much everyone was disappointed when he was a borderline all-star. They didn’t need Randy Johnson because they “had his prototype” in the system (Daniel Cabrera!). There are literally 2x the number of IF prospects who can play in Camden Yards over the next 5 years, are the others supposed to sit in AAA in case someone gets hurt? Holliday is probably good enough to break camp with the big club, and Kjerstad, Stowers, and Cowser have nothing else to prove in AAA, Westburg held his own in Year 1. Ortiz didn’t get a fair shake – he came up and sat watching Frazier and Mateo play.
It would be nice if one year the Orioles went into a season having made conscious efforts to fill obvious shortcomings in the team. Yes, this team won 101 games but it was a 90-win team plus ridiculous 1 run and extras record. Why must it always be a scrap heap, reclamation, hope and pray everything works itself out without spending any money?
Adding Maldonado and better defense around him…….Getz should get a top tier headliner or hold him.
Chi Sox finding out MLB doesnt value Cease as highly as they do.
It’s a gamble by Chicago. If he has another rough year, even with his potential and peripherals, his value will take a big hit. If he pitches well, he will only maintain his value.
Kyle Farmer and Nick Gordon should be more than enough for the Twins to land Dylan Cease and a top White Sox prospect.