Shota Imanaga is among the more intriguing starting pitchers still on the free agent market. The Japanese left-hander became available to MLB teams on November 27, when he was formally posted by the Yokohama BayStars.
That opened a 45-day window for Imanaga to sign with a major league club. He’ll need to ink a contract with an MLB team by January 11 if he’s to make the jump to North America this offseason. With eight days to go, it’s little surprise Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Imanaga’s market will gain steam this week. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported around Christmas the southpaw was planning a trip to meet with interested teams shortly after the New Year.
The Red Sox, Giants, Mets and Cubs are among the teams that have been connected to Imanaga since his posting window opened. In mid-December, Jon Heyman of the New York Post also listed the Yankees as a team that was keeping an eye on Imanaga as a fallback option if they missed on Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
However, Heyman suggested in an appearance on Bleacher Report this afternoon (X link) that the Yankees weren’t enamored with the southpaw. Imanaga allowed 17 home runs in 148 innings a season ago, the second-most in Japan’s top league. New York’s front office seemingly has concerns about how well he’d profile in a park as hitter-friendly as Yankee Stadium.
Despite the home run concerns, the 30-year-old is going to do quite well financially. Imanaga led NPB with 174 strikeouts while issuing only 24 walks (a meager 4% rate). Some evaluators project him as a mid-rotation starter. Passan reiterated this morning that many executives feel he’ll land a contract in excess of $100MM. That’d be well above the five-year, $75MM pact secured by Kodai Senga last winter even though Senga was arguably coming off a better platform showing.
Senga had allowed just seven homers with a 27.5% strikeout rate and a sparkling 1.94 ERA in 2022. Imanaga had a slightly superior strikeout percentage (29.2%) and allowed 2.80 earned runs per nine last year. Senga was also entering his age-30 season. Unlike Imanaga, he was a true free agent, so the Mets weren’t required to send any compensation to his NPB club. Any team that signs Imanaga would owe the BayStars a fee valued at 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of further spending.
That said, it’s possible teams harbored reservations about Senga’s health that they won’t have regarding Imanaga. The Mets reportedly expressed some trepidation with his elbow during their physical. That obviously didn’t scuttle the deal, but it could’ve factored into his earning potential.
Imanaga may also benefit from the success Senga had in his first MLB campaign. The righty finished runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year balloting after posting a 2.98 ERA across 166 1/3 innings. That Senga looked like more than a mid-rotation starter in his first MLB season could give some clubs added confidence in projecting Imanaga’s ability to handle big league hitters with a fairly similar projection.
Please tell the trusted Jon Heyman that the Yankees are out on Shoto Imanaga.
Wake up Cubs!
Do something.
Anything!
The way things are going, he’ll probably sign with a west coast team.
avenger65- Yeah I was definitely thinking the San Francisco Giants, since he’s a fly ball pitcher, he’d likely get lit up at Wrigley or Fenway.
I fully expect the Cubs to announce a significant signing or two before the Cubs convention next weekend.
Yes, and hopefully that signing is Cody Bellinger.
Haha as a Cards fan I am enjoying the Cubs fans having meltdowns. Oh how ye talked so much smack with the new manager and what say ye now?
I wouldn’t really call it a melt down. It could just he impatience. I mean they could have went the AARP route like the Cardinals did.
As a Cardinals fan even I have to laugh at that. Good one there. We seem to be getting older by the minute. Gray is awesome. Those other guys, well we didn’t need both. They are so average, and that’s if we get lucky this year. Lynn is scary to me. He’s truly washed up I believe.
Jed is comatose.
He really should be kicking the tires a little harder on Imanaga. Wrigley Field is a pitcher-friendly ballpark and there are good defenders at all three spots. CF isn’t set right now, but PCA is an option and he’s a great defender.
I don’t know why people imply Wrigley is a hitters paradise. Wrigley almost always plays neutral due to its dimensions and wind patters. If a guy is a gap to gap hitter line drive hitter, he would profile well but pull hitters see a lot of home runs die in the well or knocked down by the wind. Also, in the spring and fall, when it gets cold, Wrigley definitely turns into a pitchers park.
Yankees I think need more of a sure thing. Red Sox make the most sense imo.
Hopefully we get some more connected teams by tomorrow and the reasons for…I know there are the obvious ones, but just want MLBTR’s expanded take.
And do wonder if my Phillies are doing more than kicking the tires?
I do see the Phils as a option, we have seen teams with a great 1-2 punch still go after a 3rd like the dodgers and considering the Phils dont have much after that, I think they are a sleeper team on Imanaga.
If Woo Suk can be signed…..
Don’t know why the Cardinals aren’t all over him. He’d be a perfect fit imo.
I’m good w Ima going to Bos, but I hope there would at least beone more SP brought in.
I could see the Sox going after Imanaga, and then I think they’ll finish their staff up by signing either Stroman or possibly a guy like Sean Manaea.
I think any of the three would be solid pickups for the Red Sox, but if they could get two of the three it would definitely go a long way towards helping them bounce back and getting closer to making a run at a WC spot.
If Imanaga is signed, any other pitcher would almost certainly come by trade. Especially if they get Teoscar Hernandez, they basically have to move at least one of their outfielders. Nick Yorke is also completely superfluous with Grissom around.
Stroman is a good pitcher but he’s a horrible fit for the Red Sox – lots of grounders and not a lot of strikeouts isn’t going to work with Devers, Casas, and Grissom playing behind him.
Manaea’s a good cheaper option who I could could get behind.
He the guy they told they need to free up money to sign ?? That’s my bet
Mets should do something, come on sign someone good already
With Citi Field not being a HR Park it’s a good fit for Imanaga.
If Alonzo didn’t play his Home games there you could tack on another 5-10 HR’s a year for him.
Not according to his expected home run by park or xHR on statcast.
I thought he would sign with the Yankees but clearly the Yankees are not interested in winning this year.
I believe the Yankees are going to get either Snell or Montgomery, so I wouldn’t really worry too much.
I think they’ll ultimately land Montgomery, and I think that would be a great signing for them.
I really don’t think you want the Yankees signing Imanaga. His tendencies don’t mesh very well with Yankee Stadium.
Perhaps you don’t remember that Jordan Montgomery had unpleasant things to say about the Yankees when he left.
Perhaps that was a media stirrup that was such cap. Nothing happened, idk why media thought he was mad just cuz he got traded for bader, he said himslf no “bad blood”
@AirYordan- Exactly Monty would definitely have no problem rejoining the Yankees, truth be told he never wanted to leave. The Yankees obviously made a mistake not trusting his fastball more, and by not having faith in him by saying he wouldn’t have a playoff start, if he would of stayed and not been traded for Harrison Bader. Expect Monty to be the #3 starter on this pitching staff if he returns.
@richardc
If you’re worried about HRs being surrendered, I’d suggest avoiding Montgomery completely as he has a career 2.87% HR-rate and in Yankee Stadium, that increased to 3.13%.
Looking at Snell, during his time with TB, which is supposed to be a pitcher park, he had a 2.88% career HR-surrender rate. After joining SD, that dropped and he now has a 2.48% HR-surrender rate.
Imanaga has a career 2.59% HR-surrender rate and he pitches in an even smaller stadium than Yankee Stadium.
Yokohama
RF 308
CF 387
LF 308
New York
RF 385
CF 408
LF 318
The one saving grace in your argument is that Yankee Stadium’s outfield walls are 8+ feet high compared to Yokohama’s at 16 feet.
In conclusion, if you’re worried about him surrendering HRs, I’d also avoid Snell & especially Montgomery but that’s just my opinion.
York- RF in Yankee Stadium is 314′
@Gwynning
How did I mess that up? Thank you for the correction. My point remains that he pitches in a small park as it is so it’s not like it wouldn’t translate well to MLB.
@richardc
BTW, here’s a breakdown of his pitching data for 2023.
baseballdata.jp/playerP/1500061.html
A fly ball pitcher at Yankee Stadium isn’t a good idea. Monty is definitely the way to go for the Yankees.
Hopefully rumors of Yankees disinterest are true. 17 jacks over 148ip in Nippon is a hard NO
Dude is a Dinger machine. MLB hitters will punish him. Might as well set it on a Tee
Let him sign in Frisco. Giants have a long history of stupidity handing out big contracts to SP’s that are league leaders in HR’s Allowed. Manaea and of Samardjiza
….frisco….
Imanaga would be a great fit for the Giants, excellent idea.
Indeed
Why would SFG need another back of the rotation guy ? They have about 5 already. They need another front end guy. Not to mention they have wasted enough time chasing these future Fodgers this offseason. Really hope they are smart enough to hard pass on this guy.
I guess some perceive Imanaga as more of a mid-rotation guy instead of a back rotation guy. I also see the Giants using a number of their young pitchers in 2024. Young pitching is very unreliable, and it would be smart to have a number of more veteran guys to rely on.
Stripling, DeSclafani are those guys.
Do they need another lefty? absolutely. I just can’t get on board the Tokyo express anymore. I honestly feel these guys are manipulating their markets and driving the salaries knowing all along the target is LAD. That said if SFG does land him I would get behind it because I’m a fan. Maybe he would benefit from a pitcher friendly park.
The wise thing to do would not be to depend on both Stripling and DeSclafani.. Better odds are to bank on only one of the 2. And it’s possible neither are productive. I thought they had good depth last year which turned out to not be the case. It’s literally true that teams can’t have too much pitching.
Your right.
Webb
Snell / Monty
Cobb
Harrison
Beck/ Winn
Stripling/DeSclafani
Long relief or “depth “and early for Cobb starts.
Lmao yeah and your Yankees have done so well over the last 15 years?!! Lmao you guys just signed a wasted $150 million plus on an ex Giants pitcher!! Last time I checked Zito and Samardjiza won a Championship
@Djboys28 Jeff Samardjiza never won a Championship.
Please do! I hope the Yankees sign snell or Monty to a 6+ year deal. I hope they extend Soto for 15 years after that!
Soto wouldnt be extended more then 13 years buddy….
I disagree. Soto will be entering free-agency in his age 26 season. 13 years would be through his age 38 season. Judge is signed through his age 39 season. Machado and Bogaerts are both signed through their age 40 seasons. It’s almost guaranteed that some team will offer him a deal through his age 39 or 40 seasons. So a 14 or 15 year deal is probable.
lol my i brain farted there. its so hard to remember soto is only 25 loll
The Red Sox are interested in everything except winning.
faxxx
Come on (insert team/gm/pobo), do something!
I really don’t think the Yanks are getting Imanga. I see the Mets as the favorite and I also see the Phillies as a option as well.
Yanks are getting Montgomery and I think there’s a chance they get Snell as well.
@BrianStrowman9- Yes, Monty for 6 years and a team option for a 7th season would make plenty of sense. $192.50 for 6 years could get it done. Doubt most teams are willing to go to $30 million annually, for him. We’ll see.
According to Passan the Yankees are interested in Luzardo. Not sure how I feel about that, but I feel better than if they were interested in Imanaga. Lizardo would be a good addition, depending on the cost of acquisition.
According to everyone the Yankees are intrested in everyone, I’m tired of hearing it, steinbrenner said it himself, their gonna be intrested in everyone this offseason. wake me up when their getting close to a deal.
I agree, but Passan is different. He’s perhaps the most connected and accurate media person there is regarding the Yankees. If he says it, it usually means something is brewing.
Could be but in general when the words “intrested” come up about the Yankees regarding a player, it honestly means nothing for me regardless of who said it.
I like Luzardo but what are the Yankees gonna give up at this point?
Jones & Hampton? & Peraza? The Marlins are gonna get a lot for his 3 years of affordable control.
Brian: I agree with Oscar (and you) that the initial proposal begins with Miami asking for Jones, Peraza, and Hampton. Although, the Yankees have a lot of prospect talent in their system (contrary to popular belief).
I could easily see this potential trade necessitating four to five Yankees prospects because of Luzardo’s talent coupled with his remaining years of control (I believe it’s until ‘26?).
Anyway, that’s why I remarked about the concern being the cost. I believe the Yankees have enough to get a deal done, but I know other prospect-laden teams (say the O’s for an easy example) could outbid the Yankees if they chose to.
I also believe Cashman is going to seriously balk at whatever the Marlins asking price will be, especially after the prospects he gave up for Soto and Verdugo.
Hey Clipp, not giving up Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Jones, or Oswald Peraza in a Jesus Luzardo or Corbin Burnes trade. Everson Pereira, George Lombard, Ben Rice and either Clarke Schmidt or Chase Hampton seems more doable for either pitcher though. Dylan Cease I feel will be traded to the Yankees for that type of package to be their #2, and I feel Monty will sign here to be their #3. We’ll see what happens. I like Edward Cabrera better then Jesus Lazardo in a trade with the Marlins, considering he’d be the cheaper get. Lmk.
Yeah, I tend to agree CJ99. I mean, I’m not a fan of hugging prospects, but 1) Dominguez isn’t a prospect anymore in my view, and 2) I’ve really bought into Jones’ tools. I was never very high on Volpe as a prospect, and it’s been a long time since I’ve really been convinced a prospect is going to be really, really good; but I think Jones will be. Obviously, Dominguez is excluded because his hype was so high from the beginning, so believing he will be isn’t a surprise to anyone.
I think that conversation starts with Spencer Jones and Hampton
I think Cabrera is more likely for the Yanks, and Clevenger. They both would be good moves and wouldn’t cost that much. I would give Clevenger a 2/3 year deal, maybe 2/26. Cabrera would cost the Yanks, They also need a relief pitcher either Hicks or Stephenson. Plus the Yanks don’t need another lefty starter, they need a righty.
No it’s definitely one or the other. The Yankees would be wise to pass on Snell, and sign Monty. If they trade, Dylan Cease would definitely be cheaper then trading for Corbin Burnes who will cost a fortune as far as trading for him, and signing him to an extension. Burnes is just a rental.
True. Snell gonna demand a fortune and if they did wanna get a 3rd solid SP pitching market the way to go for them
正太・イマナガ、サンフランシスコへようこそ!
Candelstoked — Could be but I think Giants need to shoot higher than a mid-rotation arm.
Blake Snell or Shota Imagana makes the most sense for the Giants. I’m shocked they are not trying to sign Cody Bellinger also. The Giants have all this $ they haven’t spent yet.
Been abit, but was able to sound out Imanga, san fransisco and whatever yo-koso means.
Sauce on side
Cautiously optimistic that Zaidi will finally sign Imanaga.
At the same time I can’t help but think about the way Zaidi’s offseason has gone. So I’m not getting my hopes up too high.
Zaidi is insane at screwing up a FA siginings, never trust him lol.
Redwolves3 — If he signs Imanaga he needs to sign at least Jordan Montgomery or trade for a #1 or #2 as well.
If giants don’t get him – they signed the wrong guy
Open up that purse, Chaim Breslow.
At this point, I have no clue what to expect but I doubt the Red Sox sign him.
Idk why the Red Sox are in discussion for him….
I’m sure they’re interested, but only until the price rises
I was waiting for a Chaim Breslow or Craig Bloom to pop up
I honestly just don’t see the Red Sox bidding against high market teams when their not even in serious contention right now. btw ur user is awesome, its a shame bloom sucked as a Gm woulda been cool since hes jewish.
The thing is, if they make the right deals, they could be in it to win it. We won in 2013 after having one of the worst teams in 2012. All it takes is one offseason if you pull the right strings.
Not sure I understand the HR concern with Imanaga.
HRs per 9 in 2023:
Giolito 2.05
Scherzer 1.66
Nola 1.49
Ohtani 1.23
Darvish 1.19
Imanaga 1.03
Imanaga vs Japanese hitters, the rest against mlbers. In addition, different ballparks. That’s why there is some concern
@grouch
Yep. Huge concern. Look at pitchers coming over from Japan—their MLB HR rate spikes significantly. Imanaga doesn’t have the room for a 50% spike off of that number.
My concern would be he has never pitched in the US.
Total HRs given is something to consider but some pitchers challenge hitters more early in the count with no runners on.
Also some SP adjust how they pitch based on the score (say they have a lead of 4 or more) and some SPs pitch in hitter friendly parks.
For me it’s just one piece of the puzzle when making an evaluation.
For Shota there are so many other factors like coming to a new league, (size of ball, mound differences.) culture adjustment, mental make up and a whole lot more
God made every human being different
Lots more power hitters in the majors.
Keep sleeping on the Redsox. They will be a playoff team when all is said and done
That is so unrealistic, dont keep your hopes up on a team who traded one of their best players and is in trade talks to trade more.
I’d say the RS are not anywhere close to an automatic playoff team. But I also think the ALE is closer top to bottom than any other division. I’d be a little surprised, but it’s not outside the realm of probability/
Oh lord.
LOL
As a Yankees fan, I have ZERO interest. You give up 17 dongs in a league where half the guys are 5’9 160 lbs, good luck in the show. Hitters know he can’t get his low 90’s fastball by them, so they’ll wait on his junk and tee off on it. No thank you!!
Jose Altuve is 5′-6″ and he hit 17 HRs in 2023 against ML pitching. And he hit 28 the year before, and has 209 for his career.
He’s obviously the outlier…..he’s not one of half the league. So unless you think the Japanese league is all Altuve’s, your attempt at a point is idiotic.
What’s idiotic is posting something without actually verifying that it’s true. The average height in the NPB is 5′-11″, not 5′-9″.
Clearly you’re missing the obvious point. The players in the Japanese league aren’t nearly as big or strong as in the show…..obviously….if you have any common sense whatsoever. So if he’s giving up 17 homers there, that doesn’t bode well for MLB. That’s why many team are walking around him….like my Yankees. No go home and get your shine box! Let the grown ups talk.
Grown-ups? You hardly sound like one. You tried to make your point like a teenager, writing a bad book report. If you want to sound like a grown-up maybe don’t post false information, and then muddy up the attempt with condescension..
Yes, because you need to do in depth research to learn that baseball players in Japan are not as big and strong on average as in the US.
You’re like that one annoying kid in class who acts like a know-it-all but in reality is the village idiot everyone rolls their eyes at.
I’m done making you look ridiculous.
Feel free to get the last one in too so you can celebrate in your moms basement. It will be the highlight of your year.
Anyone that can’t talk baseball without personal attacks is simply pathetic.
Bum.
Japanese? Left-handed?
*gets Kei Igawa flashbacks*
My best guess at this point would be Imanaga to the Mets, Snell to the Angels, Montgomery to the BoSox, Stroman to the Giants.
What’s going on with Julio Urias?
I doubt he pitches next year, most likely will follow Bauer to Japan (or Russell to the Mexican league). I believe he had to face indictment earlier this offseason.
Kei igawa 2.0?
One should be noted that Imanaga’s Yokohama Stadium is one of the most hitter friendly parks remains in the NPB. Home to polls: 309.1 ft
中堅 – 117.7 m（約386.2 ft）
左右中間 – 111.4 m （約365 ft）
It should be noted that Imanaga’s Yokohama Stadium is one of the small hitter friendly parks in the NPB. Home to poles: 309.1 ft. Home to the center wall: 386.2 ft.
Sign with the Angels. Bye bye Shohei, hello Shota.
Please, please, please sign with the Giants.