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Cubs Designate Michael Fulmer For Assignment

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The Cubs have designated right-hander Michael Fulmer for assignment, per a team announcement. That move will clear space on the active roster for the reinstatement of lefty Shota Imanaga, who’ll return from the injured list to start today’s game.

Fulmer only joined the big league club last week. He’d been pitching well with Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate in Iowa, working to a 2.96 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate in 24 1/3 innings. His two appearances with the Cubs were strong. He totaled three innings and held opponents scoreless on just two hits and no walks with one strikeout.

This is the second DFA of the season for Fulmer, the 2016 American League Rookie of the Year winner with the Tigers. He opened the season as a member of the Red Sox, having signed a two-year minor league deal in the 2023-24 offseason as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery. He made just one big league appearance with the Sox, allowing three runs in 2 2/3 innings, before being designated there as well.

Now 32 years old, Fulmer broke into the majors with 26 starts and 159 innings of 3.06 ERA ball for the ’16 Tigers, claiming Rookie of the Year honors in the process. He was a key member of Detroit’s rotation for the next couple seasons before injuries intervened. In addition to Tommy John surgery, Fulmer has also undergone an ulnar nerve transposition procedure in his right arm as well as surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee. Detroit moved him to the ’pen early in 2021, and he went on to pitch quite well as a closer and setup man between the Tigers, Twins and Cubs over the next two-plus seasons.

While he’s not the high-end starting pitcher he was early in his career or even the hard-throwing, high-leverage reliever he was from 2021-23, Fulmer has generally looked solid in his first full season back from that UCL replacement. He’s pitched 36 innings of 3.00 ERA ball in Triple-A, averaging 92.7 mph on his heater there — he sat 94.3 mph in his two major league outings with Chicago — and pitched well in his latest MLB look.

The Cubs will have up to five days to explore trades before Fulmer must be placed on waivers to ensure that his DFA is resolved within the one-week maximum. (Waivers take 48 hours to process.) He can be waived at any time prior, of course. If Fulmer passes through waivers unclaimed, he’ll have the right to reject an outright assignment to a minor league affiliate with the Cubs and instead explore opportunities with the league’s 29 other teams.

Rotation Notes: Scherzer, Stroman, Imanaga, Eovaldi

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The Blue Jays will activate Max Scherzer from the 60-day injured list on Wednesday to start Toronto’s game against the Guardians, the team announced.  Scherzer has thrown two Triple-A rehab outings and then tossed 30-40 pitches in a bullpen session today in what seems like the final checkpoint in an extended recovery process from a thumb problem that has plagued the future Hall-of-Famer for over a year.  “My stuff is fine.  I’m trying everything I can to manage this (thumb) and make sure I can recover.  There’s no knowing, just have to get out there,” Scherzer told Sportnet’s Hazel Mae and Shi Davidi.

Scherzer signed a one-year, $15.5MM deal with the Jays this past offseason, but he lasted just three innings before thumb soreness forced him out of his Toronto debut on March 29.  As Scherzer acknowledged, it is anyone’s guess as to whether or not this thumb problem could resurface, and it stands to reason that the Blue Jays will limit Scherzer’s pitch count.  Since the 50-pitch threshold has generally been the tipping point for Scherzer’s thumb, it is a good sign that he threw beyond 50 pitches in both of his rehab starts, topping out at 74 pitches.  Toronto seems likely to explore piggyback or long relief options behind Scherzer on Wednesday and for the foreseeable future, until Scherzer feels comfortable enough to test throwing deeper into games.

Here’s the latest on some other prominent pitchers nearing a return to a big league mound…

  • Marcus Stroman will throw his third and possibly final minor league rehab start on Tuesday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and other reporters.  Assuming Stroman gets through that outing (set for roughly 70 pitches) feeling good, Boone said Stroman might then “be in the mix” to be activated from the 60-day IL.  The right-hander made three starts before knee inflammation sent Stroman to the IL in April, and a setback resulted in Stroman being shifted to the 60-day IL as he continued his recovery process.  With Ryan Yarbrough hitting the 15-day IL today, there’s a ready-made opening for Stroman within New York’s rotation.
  • A left hamstring strain has kept Shota Imanaga out of action since the first week of May, but after making three minor league rehab starts, Imanaga will return to the Cubs’ rotation this week.  Manager Craig Counsell shared the news with reporters (including Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times), but stopped short of confirming that Imanaga would indeed pitch during the four-game series with the Cardinals that begins on Monday.  The Cubs are still monitoring Matthew Boyd after the southpaw suffered a bruised shoulder in his last start, so there’s a bit of flux in the rotation order until Boyd’s status is confirmed.  Regardless, Imanaga’s return is obviously great news for a Chicago team is leading the NL Central despite operating without Imanaga and Justin Steele for the majority of the season.  Following his spectacular 2024 rookie year, Imanaga has kept it going in 2025 with a 2.82 ERA in 44 2/3 innings and eight starts this season.
  • Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t pitched since May 27 due to right posterior elbow inflammation, but it seems as though he’ll return to the Rangers without a minor league rehab assignment.  Manager Bruce Bochy indicated (to Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News and other reporters) that Eovaldi will be activated from the 15-day IL to start during the Rangers’ upcoming series with the Mariners that begins on Friday.  Though Eovaldi won’t need any rehab starts, he did ramp up in the form of a live batting practice session of over 50 pitches on Saturday.  With Tyler Mahle, Jon Gray, and Cody Bradford all still on the Texas IL, getting staff ace Eovaldi back is an enormous help, as the righty had a sterling 1.56 ERA in his first 69 1/3 innings of the season.

Jed Hoyer: Cubs Planning To Look For Pitching At Deadline

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Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer joined the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman for an interview on the latest edition of The Show podcast (YouTube link), and discussed a number of topics about both his team and baseball at large.  Though we’re still several weeks away from the July 31 trade deadline, Hoyer did address his first-place team’s likeliest need.

“I think we’re going to be looking for pitching, both rotation and in the bullpen,” Hoyer said.  “I don’t think that’s a secret.  That’s not a knock on the guys we have.  But I think in today’s game, you’ve got to keep building depth.”

Justin Steele pitched in just four games before his season was prematurely ended by a UCL revision surgery, thus robbing Wrigleyville of one of its top arms for almost the entirety of the 2025 campaign.  Javier Assad hasn’t pitched at all this season due to a pair of oblique injuries, and since he only started playing catch a couple of weeks ago, it would seem that a return prior to the All-Star break might not be in the cards.  Shota Imanaga hasn’t pitched since May 4 due to a hamstring strain, and Hoyer said “the hope is” Imanaga will be able to return to the rotation before the end of June.

Without their two top pitchers and another hurler in Assad that expected to at least compete for a back-end rotation job, Chicago has done well to hold its own on the rotation front even with such a depleted set of starters.  Hoyer made a point of praising his in-house starters and his team’s defense for helping the run-prevention efforts, yet bringing at least one starting pitcher into the fold seems like a logical way to reinforce the roster heading into the pennant drive.

As one might expect, Hoyer didn’t share any hints about how big of a splash the Cubs are looking to make at the deadline, and still couched his comments within the framework of “if” the front office chose to make any additions by July 31.  It could be that Hoyer may not know the answer to such questions himself at the moment, as the Cubs’ trade pursuits may hinge on Imanaga’s assumed healthy status by July 31, Assad’s progress, or any other injuries or pitchers who are under- or overachieving in the coming weeks.

Hoyer also said that Porter Hodge is expected to return from his own oblique injury before June is out, which will bring another high-leverage candidate back to help the relief corps.  As Hoyer put it, however, bullpens are “always a work in progress…I don’t think you ever get to a point of feeling comfortable or feeling like it’s a set thing.”  With this in mind, the pen will be a focus both on July 31, and “we’ll keep on making small transactions [before the deadline] as well to get marginally better.”

On the flip side of the equation, Hoyer doesn’t see the Cubs doing much to alter its impressive core of position players on the trade front.  The Cubs have been one of baseball’s best hitting teams, with the powerful offense helping make up for any of the pitching staff’s shortcomings.

“Barring injury, there are probably some small things [we’ll consider] on the offensive side, but really I think that our position-playing group has been really good….The depth we have, top to bottom, I think we’re getting production both offensively and defensively from all our spots.  That’s made a huge difference.  As I think about it, pitching is the likely direction we would take if we were adding [at the deadline],” Hoyer said.

In terms of other topics, Hoyer said he wouldn’t comment publicly on either the existence of any extensions talks between the Cubs and Kyle Tucker, or even any talks between himself and the team on a new deal, as Hoyer’s current contract is up after the 2025 season.  Hoyer repeated past comments about how he hoped Tucker would stay in Chicago over the long term, and how much he has enjoyed his own 14-season tenure in the organization as first a general manager and then the head of the baseball operations department.

Hoyer did go into a little more detail about what might now be the most impactful trade of his five-year run as PBO — the July 2021 deadline deal that brought Pete Crow-Armstrong to the then-rebuilding Cubs from the Mets for Javier Baez, Trevor Williams, and some cash considerations.  New York took Crow-Armstrong 19th overall in the 2020 draft so it wasn’t as if PCA was an unknown quantity, yet a shoulder surgery limited the outfielder to only six games in his first pro season.

The Mets weren’t willing to discuss moving more highly-touted prospects at the time, as Hoyer said such players as Francisco Alvarez, Matt Allan, and Brett Baty were “off the table” in trade talks.  Mark Vientos “was a guy that was kind of discussed a little bit but it was clear they didn’t want to part with him,” Hoyer noted, so discussions turned towards elsewhere on New York’s minor league depth chart.

Crow-Armstrong “was sort of out of sight, out of mind, I believe,” Hoyer said.  “Looking back, I think his injury didn’t allow him to perform, and therefore I think he became a guy [the Mets] were willing to trade in that deal.  So I think it was good fortune for us that they did take some really good players off the table, and most of those guys are helping the Mets right now, but Pete’s injury allowed that to happen and it worked out really well for us.”

While Hoyer felt Crow-Armstrong was going to improve as a hitter during his second full Major League season, even the executive admitted to being a little surprised at the extent of the breakout.  PCA has been one of the very best all-around players in the sport, delivering 17 homers, 21 stolen bases, and a .277/.313/.559 slash line over 275 plate appearances while also playing Gold Glove-level defense in center field.

Cubs Place Shota Imanaga On IL Due To Hamstring Strain

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May 5: Imanaga has been placed on the 15-day IL with Gavin Hollowell recalled to take his place on the active roster, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times.

May 4: Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga sustained what the team described as a left hamstring strain during today’s start against the Brewers.  With one out in the sixth inning, Imanaga picked up the injury while covering first base during a fielder’s choice from Milwaukee’s Christian Yelich.  Imanaga was immediately favoring his hamstring even before the play was completed, and was removed from the game after consulting with team trainers.

More imaging and tests need to take place before the Cubs decide whether or not Imanaga will head to the 15-day injured list, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine writes.  Chicago has an off-day this coming Thursday, so conceivably, the team could skip Imanaga’s next turn in the rotation to give him some time to recover without putting him on the IL and losing him for at least 15 days.

That said, the fact that the injury has already been described as as strain certainly makes it seem like a 15-day IL stint is the most probable result.  With Imanaga likely out of action and Justin Steele already gone for the season due to UCL surgery, Chicago is now down its top two projected starters.

Signed to a four-year, $53MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason, Imanaga’s move from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors went very smoothly, as he delivered a 2.91 ERA over 173 1/3 innings in his first big league season.  The lefty was off to another good start in his sophomore season, as counting today’s outing, Imanaga has a 2.82 ERA in 44 2/3 innings.  That quality ERA does mark some troubling secondary numbers, however, as Imanaga’s 18.9% strikeout rate is well below average, and he has allowed a lot of hard contact.

Those metrics notwithstanding, Imanaga was still delivering good bottom-line results, and helping the Cubs rise to first place in the NL Central.  Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd have also pitched well, Colin Rea has performed well since being inserted into Steele’s rotation spot, and Ben Brown has been inconsistent but serviceable in covering innings.

Assuming Imanaga will indeed go on the IL, Chris Flexen might be the likeliest replacement, as he was already working as a starter at Triple-A before Chicago selected his contract to the big league roster earlier this week.  Flexen has thus far made one appearance with the Cubs (a three-inning relief outing in Friday’s 10-0 win over Milwaukee), and could be fairly easily stretched out again for a starting gig in Imanaga’s place.

If not Flexen, the Cubs could call Jordan Wicks up from Triple-A, or perhaps give star prospect Cade Horton his first taste of Major League action.  Javier Assad won’t be an option for perhaps several months, as Assad recently suffered a Grade 2 oblique strain while pitching on a rehab assignment for an earlier oblique strain suffered in Spring Training.

Cubs Select Chris Flexen

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2:46pm: The Cubs have announced the move. Flexen’s contract has been selected from Iowa, and Assad was indeed transferred to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Lefty Tom Cosgrove was optioned to Iowa to clear a spot for Flexen on the active 26-man roster.

9:04am: The Cubs are selecting the contract of veteran righty Chris Flexen from Triple-A Iowa, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. He’s been excellent through his first five starts in Des Moines and would’ve been able to opt out of his minor league contract tomorrow if not added to the 40-man roster. Chicago has a full 40-man roster, so a corresponding move will be necessary.

Flexen, 30, has turned in a pristine 1.16 ERA with a much-improved 22.3% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk rate in 23 1/3 innings of Triple-A work. He hasn’t made any notable changes to his repertoire, and his velocity is right in line with previous levels (91.3 mph average four-seamer), but Rogers notes that Flexen did make a change to his arm slot that the team believes has contributed to his early success.

Flexen has followed an unusual career arc, originally debuting as a 22-year-old with the Mets in 2017 and struggling through parts of three seasons before heading overseas. Flexen reinvented himself with the Korea Baseball Organization’s Doosan Bears, parlaying one strong year there in 2020 into a two-year free agent deal with the Mariners. Upon coming back to North America, he quickly became a pivotal member of Seattle’s rotation, posting a 3.66 ERA in 317 2/3 innings from 2021-22.

After his 2023 option was picked up, his production cratered and Flexen found himself designated for assignment. He struggled down the stretch after being scooped up by the Rockies, and then pitched the 2024 season on a one-year deal with the White Sox, for whom he worked as an innings-eating fifth starter (4.95 ERA, 160 innings, 30 starts).

Based on how his 2023-24 seasons played out, it wasn’t a big surprise that the free agent market produced only a minor league deal for Flexen. His terrific early performance amid some tangible changes to his delivery, however, has fast tracked him back to the big leagues.

The Cubs will be without ace Justin Steele for the remainder of the season due to elbow surgery, but even with Steele out of the picture, the rotation has generally been solid. Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd have all delivered strong results (albeit in spite of some more concerning underlying numbers for Imanaga in particular). Veteran swingman Colin Rea has stepped into Steele’s rotation spot and been brilliant in three turns (13 1/3 innings, 1.35 ERA, 17-to-3 K/BB ratio).

The Chicago rotation isn’t without flaws, though. Twenty-five-year-old Ben Brown has been inconsistent. He’s shown a promising ability to miss bats but has yet to top five innings in an outing and has scarcely kept his ERA in the rotation under 6.00. All three of Imanaga, Boyd and Taillon have strikeout rates around 19% — about three percentage points shy of the league average. Imanaga and Boyd have roughly average walk rates. Neither seems likely to sustain a sub-3.00 ERA without improvements in one or both areas.

Regardless, the Cubs don’t necessarily have a glaring rotation need. Brown seems likely to get a bit more leash. There are no injuries of any note among the existing quintet. Imanaga exited his most recent start due to some cramping in his legs, but Rogers adds in a second report that Flexen’s promotion is not related to that early exit.

For now, it seems Flexen will just provide some length, perhaps in a similar swingman role to the one previously held by Rea. If Imanaga’s legs ultimately require an IL stint and/or if Brown’s struggles continue, perhaps there’ll be a more notable change to the pitching staff’s composition.

It’s not yet clear how the Cubs will make room on the 40-man roster, though one straightforward option would be to transfer righty Javier Assad from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL. Assad has been out all season due to an oblique strain, and while he was progressing through a rehab stint last week, he exited his most recent rehab appearance due to renewed discomfort in his side. That was eight days ago, the Cubs have since announced that he’s been diagnosed with a Grade 2 oblique strain. He’s not going to be ready to return at any point in the near future, making a 60-day transfer the clearest path to open a roster spot without sacrificing any depth.

Looking Ahead To Club Options: NL Central

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the NL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West

Chicago Cubs

  • Shota Imanaga, LHP (team has three-year, $57MM option covering 2026-28; if they decline, Imanaga has $15MM player option for 2026)

Imanaga signed a somewhat complex four-year, $53MM deal when he made the jump from NPB during the 2023-24 offseason. Next winter, the Cubs need to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $57MM option for the 2026-28 seasons. That’d come with respective salaries of $20MM, $20MM and $17MM. If the Cubs decline their end, Imanaga would be able to decline a $15MM player option for ’26 and test free agency.

It’d almost certainly take an injury for that to happen. Concerns about how Imanaga’s stuff might translate against MLB competition proved unfounded. The southpaw finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting during his first major league season. He turned in a 2.91 earned run average across 173 1/3 innings, striking out a quarter of opponents against a 4% walk rate. The punchouts haven’t been there through this year’s first five starts, but he takes a 2.22 ERA into tonight’s appearance against the Dodgers. He’s getting whiffs on an excellent 14% of his pitches, so he’ll likely finish off a few more strikeouts moving forward. Imanaga’s deal looks like a bargain, and the Cubs should happily sign up for another three seasons at a $19MM average annual value unless he suffers an injury.

  • Colin Rea, RHP ($6MM club option, $750K buyout)

Rea reunited with Craig Counsell in Chicago after the Brewers declined his $5.5MM club option. It actually worked out slightly to his financial benefit. The righty collected a $1MM buyout from Milwaukee and secured a $5MM guarantee with the Cubs. He’s playing this year on a $4.25MM salary and will make at least a $750K buyout on next year’s club option. That’s valued at $6MM, so it’ll be a $5.25MM decision.

The Cubs had Rea work in long relief to begin the season. He has stepped into the rotation since the Justin Steele injury. The 34-year-old righty is out to a strong start, allowing two runs through his first 13 2/3 innings. He has punched out 12 while only allowing one walk in 56 plate appearances. Rea had held a rotation role in Milwaukee for most of last year, posting a 4.29 ERA through a career-high 167 2/3 innings. As a mid-30s swingman with league average whiff rates, he’s never going to break the bank, but the option price is reasonable for a capable #5/6 starter.

Turner’s option is mostly an accounting measure designed to push back $2MM of his $6MM free agent guarantee by a few months. Option buyouts are paid at year’s end, while the money would have been evenly distributed throughout the season had it simply been a $6MM salary. It’s unlikely that the Cubs would want to sign up for a $10MM salary covering Turner’s age-41 campaign even if he repeats his solid 2024 production.

The 17-year big league veteran has posted 11 consecutive above-average offensive seasons since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. His power numbers have declined with age, but he put up a strong .354 on-base percentage in 139 games between the Blue Jays and Mariners a year ago. Turner’s start on the North Side hasn’t been good. He’s hitting .147 without an extra-base hit over 14 games. He’s taken six walks against nine strikeouts but will obviously need to make more of a slugging impact.

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati took a buy-low flier on Barlow, a former closer who was released by the Guardians shortly before the playoffs. The righty had fallen quickly down the depth chart in Cleveland. He carried a 3.52 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. Barlow allowed a near-6.00 ERA while striking out just 19% of batters faced in the second half. A fastball that typically sat around 93 MPH had dropped to the 90-91 range.

The early tenure in Cincinnati has been mixed. Barlow has gotten his velocity back, averaging 93 on both his four-seam and sinker. He’s getting whiffs on a huge 15.3% of his offerings, nearly two percentage points above last year’s level. The stuff is certainly more encouraging, but the results haven’t followed. He has a pedestrian 9:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing five runs on eight hits through 9 1/3 innings. He was limited to a $2.5MM guarantee last offseason. He’ll need a more convincing rebound for Cincinnati to retain him on what amounts to a $5.5MM call.

Hays signed for $5MM after being non-tendered by the Phillies. The righty-hitting outfielder has been a capable regular for most of his career, but his production dipped last season while he battled a grueling kidney infection. A Spring Training calf injury delayed his team debut until last week. Hays has been on tear since his return, connecting on three homers while hitting .406 in 34 plate appearances. He has a hit in all seven games, including three straight multi-hit performances against his old teammates in Baltimore over the weekend.

Suter, who grew up in Cincinnati, joined the Reds on a $3MM deal during the 2023-24 offseason. He posted a 3.15 ERA through 65 2/3 innings and signed a $2.25MM extension at the start of last winter. The 35-year-old southpaw is out to a customary start. He has managed 9 2/3 frames of three-run ball despite striking out just four of 38 opponents. Suter’s stuff is never going to jump off the page — he’s sitting in his typical 85-88 MPH range with his fastballs — but he avoids hard contact and is aiming for his seventh straight sub-4.00 ERA showing. Assuming he continues on his usual pace, the Reds should want him back on a $2.75MM decision.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee made a big investment by their standards in signing Hoskins to a two-year, $34MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason. The longtime Phillies first baseman had missed his walk year after suffering an ACL tear during Spring Training. The Brewers expected Hoskins to recapture his consistently above-average offensive form after a healthy offseason.

That didn’t happen in year one, as he hit a career-worst .214/.303/.419 across 517 plate appearances. Hoskins still managed 26 homers, but the overall offense was essentially league average. It wasn’t attributable to lingering knee discomfort. Hoskins did his best work early in the season, carrying an .813 OPS through the end of May. He hit .203/.285/.395 over the season’s final four months and bypassed an opt-out opportunity.

Hoskins has gotten out to another strong start this year. He’s batting .270 with a trio of homers and what would be a career-low 20% strikeout rate over his first 75 trips to the plate.

Milwaukee signed Peralta to a $20MM extension just before Spring Training 2020. He was mostly unproven at the time, but it only took one more season before he developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. This quickly became one of the more team-friendly contracts in baseball. The deal included respective $8MM club options for 2025 and ’26, which would have been Peralta’s first two free agent years had he gone through arbitration.

The 28-year-old righty has been the clear staff ace since Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the five guaranteed seasons of the contract. Peralta has rattled off another 28 1/3 frames of 1.91 ERA ball through his first five starts this year. Unless he suffers a significant injury that’d threaten his availability for next season, the Brewers are going to rubber-stamp the option.

Quintana signed late on a $4.25MM pillow contract after finding a weaker market than he expected. The net present value was actually just under $4MM, as Quintana agreed to defer the $2MM buyout on his ’26 mutual option. The Brewers aren’t going to exercise their end of the $15MM option for what would be the veteran lefty’s age-37 season. It looks like they got great value on the one-year deal, though, as Quintana is coming off a 3.75 ERA showing for the Mets. The late signing delayed his team debut, but he has fired 12 1/3 innings of one-run ball over his first two starts.

Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late in the 2023 season. The Brewers re-signed him to a backloaded two-year deal with a $17.5MM guarantee. They knew he’d spend all of ’24 rehabbing. They’ve taken his progression carefully and didn’t push him during Spring Training. Woodruff began a minor league rehab stint on April 12. He has made a pair of rehab starts and could be back with the big league team in the next couple weeks.

Note: William Contreras’ arbitration contract contains a $12MM team option for next season. He’s excluded from this list because he’d remain under arbitration control if Milwaukee declines the option, as they did with Devin Williams last offseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • None

St. Louis Cardinals

  • None

The Surprise Ace Of Last Year’s Free Agent Class

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As the 22 teams that aren’t currently focused on capturing the 2024 World Series title gear up for the coming offseason, many will surely be keeping an eye on the number of high-profile free agent starters set to hit the market this winter with Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty among the consensus top arms. It’s a class that’s not entirely dissimilar from last winter’s group of top arms, which was headlined by a quartet of Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Montgomery.

Those top free agent arms garnered a combined guarantee of more than $600MM last winter, and the results were generally commensurate with that production. While Montgomery struggled badly with the Diamondbacks, Nola put up a fairly typical season by his standards with the Phillies this year (albeit with slightly diminished peripherals) and both Snell and Yamamoto fought through injury woes to dominate as expected when healthy. That said, a starter who was looked at more as a mid-rotation type of arm last winter surprised the baseball world by emerging with numbers comparable to those at the very top of the class.

That hurler was Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, who was generally looked at as a tier below the aforementioned group alongside Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito, and Sonny Gray. In spite of rumors that Imanaga’s market could top $100MM when all was said and done, the southpaw lingered in free agency into the new year before eventually signing with Chicago on a deal that fell far below expectations. While the deal maxes out at five years and $80MM, just a stone’s throw away from MLBTR’s prediction of $85MM over five years, the deal came with a complex structure that only guaranteed Imanaga $53MM, or roughly two thirds of that $80MM total figure.

It’s not hard to see why teams were seemingly bearish on Imanaga. After all, the 30-year-old lefty was coming over from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball at an age that’s roughly in line with a typical MLB free agent rather than the younger age many NPB players such as Yamamoto and teammate Seiya Suzuki make their way to the majors at. Yamamoto was marketing his age-25 season last year, while Suzuki marketed his age-27 season over the 2021-22 offseason. With many of Imanaga’s prime years already behind him, he maintained all the risk of providing a hefty sum to a player with no MLB experience without much of the perceived upside that would come with signing a player in their mid-20s.

Even aside from Imanaga’s age, it’s also worth noting that the lefty’s profile as a pitcher drew significant questions. The southpaw doesn’t throw especially hard, having averaged just 91.9mph on his heater this year, and some scouting reports (including one from Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions) raised questions about his ability to manage home runs at the big league level due to his fly ball-oriented profile. While Imanaga’s deep pitch mix and high-end stuff metrics offered reason for optimism regarding his future in the big leagues, the lefty nevertheless entered his first MLB season with plenty of questions surrounding him.

Fortunately for both Imanaga and the Cubs, he answered those questions in resounding fashion with an excellent rookie campaign. Overall, the lefty posted a 2.91 ERA (37% better than league average by ERA+) with a strong 25.1% strikeout rate that was 16th-best among qualified starters this year. He paired that strikeout stuff with excellent control, walking just 4% of opponents faced this year. That’s a figure topped by only George Kirby, Miles Mikolas, and Zach Eflin among all big leaguers this year and leaves him with a fantastic 21% K-BB that leaves him sandwiched between ace righties Zack Wheeler and Dylan Cease on the NL leaderboard.

That being said, not everything about Imanaga’s 2024 performance was dominant. His 3.72 FIP is rather pedestrian (just 6% better than league average by FIP-) and more advanced metrics such as xERA and SIERA, while more bullish than FIP on his performance, nonetheless see him as more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than the 2.91 figure he actually posted this year. The main culprit for that discrepancy between results and metrics is the very same weakness that drew some skepticism last winter: his proclivity for giving up homers. Imanaga surrendered 27 home runs this year, tied with Twins righty Bailey Ober for ninth-most among all qualified starters in 2024.

While that’s certainly not a completely untenable figure, it would certainly be fair to wonder if Imanaga is due for some regression heading into next season. Of the eight pitchers who surrendered more homers than Imanaga this year, none came close to his sterling ERA with only Nola (3.57) and Jose Berrios (3.60) posting an figure that was even within a full run of Imanaga’s 2.91 mark. Between his hefty home run rate and an above-average 80.2% strand rate this year, it would hardly be a surprise if the emergent ace put up numbers closer to the mid-rotation ceiling he was thought to have this time last year come 2025.

Of course, even a step back that aligns Imanaga’s performance more closely with his advanced metrics would leave the Cubs with an excellent #2 starter behind ace Justin Steele who they should have no concerns about starting in a hypothetical playoff series. Barring dramatic regression on the part of Imanaga next year, it seems very likely that the Cubs will guarantee the lefty the full $80MM value of his contract rather than risk him opting out following the 2025 campaign, which he would be able to do if the Cubs decline to guarantee the full contract.

Cubs Planning To Add Starting Pitcher In Offseason

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The Cubs are planning to add an established starting pitcher to their rotation this winter, reports Patrick Mooney of The Athletic. The club has Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad in four spots. Per Mooney’s report, adding one more name into that mix would push guys like Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Jordan Wicks and Hayden Wesneski down the depth chart.

“In one sense, you feel like you’re in a solid position because we have a number of young pitchers (who) have had success in the big leagues,” Manager Craig Counsell is quoted as saying in the piece. “Now with all of them, there’s been injuries. And it’s not a big sample as of yet. But that’s also kind of the nature of pitching. It’s the nature of young pitching. So we’re in a good spot in terms of that area of depth. But as we saw this year, it disappeared quickly.”

The quartet of Imanaga, Steele, Taillon and Assad have been the club’s best starters this year, both in terms of quality and quantity. Each of that group has an ERA of 3.41 or lower at the moment and all of them have tossed between 130 and 175 innings on the season thus far.

But as Counsell alluded to, there were also some challenges. Steele made a couple of trips to the injured list, one for a left hamstring strain and another for left elbow tendinitis. The Cubs had picked up a $16.5MM club option to bring back Kyle Hendricks but that ultimately proved to be a misstep. Hendricks struggled badly enough to get moved to the bullpen. He eventually retook a rotation spot but has a 6.28 ERA for the year overall. Wicks is currently on the IL for the third time this year, having gone on the shelf for a left forearm strain and then two separate stints for right oblique strains. Brown hasn’t pitched since June due to a stress reaction in his neck. Horton last pitched in May, getting shut down with a subscapularis strain and suffering a setback while trying to return the mound.

An argument could be made for rolling into 2025 with the same front four, letting the group of Wicks, Brown, Horton and Wesneski fight for the fifth spot. But with so many issues in 2024, adding some more security makes plenty of sense. None of those four are fully established. Wesneski is the only one with more than 81 big league innings pitched, and his 186 frames have been split between the bullpen and rotation. Wicks, Brown and Wesneski all still have options, meaning they could be stretched out in Triple-A if not needed on the big league staff. Horton isn’t yet on the 40-man and doesn’t need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft until December of 2025.

The Cubs also might not have much else on their winter to-do list. Even if Cody Bellinger eventually opts out, the outfield will still have Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and Mike Tauchman, with Alexander Canario, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcántara and Brennen Davis at Triple-A. The infield has Isaac Paredes, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch, with Matt Shaw knocking on the door. Miguel Amaya has shown some progress at the plate and Christian Bethancourt can be retained for next year if the Cubs believe in his recent performance. Moises Ballesteros will also be pushing for a job soon.

The bullpen arguably should be a focus but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer had made it clear he would prefer to not to make free agent splashes there. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, since Hoyer was hired in November of 2020, the club hasn’t given a multi-year deal to any reliever. And of the one-year deals they have given out, the only guy to get more than $5MM was Héctor Neris, who got $9MM.

Unless a change is coming in terms of the approach to bullpen construction, starting pitching is a logical target with the position player group in strong shape. And there should be some powder dry for reinforcements. The club went narrowly over the $237MM competitive balance tax this year, with RosterResource currently pegging their number a bit over $238MM. Next year’s tally is only at $126MM right now. Arbitration raises for guys like Paredes and Steele will certainly add to that number and it will grow significantly if Bellinger decides to stay, but there will still be room for a notable contract.

Hoyer hasn’t played at the top of the market in terms of starting pitching but has given out some mid-market deals. As shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker again,  Imanaga, Taillon and Marcus Stroman have each received guaranteed between $53MM and $71MM, the largest guarantees the Cubs have given to starting pitchers in the Hoyer era.

This winter’s starting pitching class will be topped by guys like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty and Blake Snell, assuming Snell stays healthy and opts out of his deal. Signing any of those guys would likely require the Cubs to go to a new level of spending, getting into nine-figure territory. If they want to stay in that Stroman/Taillon/Imanaga tier, they’d probably be debating names like Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta and others. Hall-of-Fame-bound veterans Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander will be limited to short-term deals since they are both in their 40s and coming off injury-plagued years in 2024.

The trade market will be another option for the Cubs. The White Sox didn’t end up flipping Garrett Crochet at the deadline but could perhaps make him available again in the winter. The Marlins lost almost all their rotation options to injury this year but it’s possible to see them considering deals as the group gets healthier for 2025. Somewhat similarly, the Rays seem to have an abundance of rotation options with Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen returned from long absences, with Shane McClanahan to join them next year. Other possibilities will surely emerge as the winter goes on.

It will be an interesting offseason for the Cubs. Their signing of Swanson heading into 2023 seemed to signal a wish to return to contention after a couple of rebuilding years. They had a solid but unspectacular year in 2023, winning 83 games. They may top that here in 2024, currently at 80-76, but will miss the postseason again. Pressure figures to be high for a club that hasn’t made the postseason in a full campaign since 2018, but a lot of good elements are in place and a few finishing touches could perhaps get them over the hump in 2025.

NL Central Notes: Imanaga, Hayes, Delay, Candelario

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Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga was set to take the ball for a start against the Cardinals last night, but after rain caused the game to be postponed until July he’s seen his start pushed back until the club’s game against the Brewers on May 29. That scheduling change will give Imanaga a whopping ten days rest between his most recent start against the Pirates last week and his next, but Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes that manager Craig Counsell made clear that Imanaga’s extended layoff wasn’t injury related, instead describing the decision as a “proactive” effort to manage his workload amid the 30-year-old lefty’s workload.

It’s not necessarily news that the Cubs are managing Imanaga’s workload, as he’s started just two games on regular rest so far this season. By inserting additional rest day’s into the lefty’s schedule, the club is hoping to soften Imanaga’s transition from the typical NPB schedule, where teams utilize six-man rotations with one day off a week allowing starters to pitch just once a week, to MLB’s five-man rotations with less frequent days off. It’s hard to argue with the results of Chicago’s plan, as Imanaga has been the best starting pitcher in the sport by the results this season and has authored a historic beginning to his big league career: his microscopic 0.84 ERA is both the lowest in baseball this year and the lowest of any rookie pitcher’s first nine starts in the modern era.

Imanaga’s peripheral numbers largely back up his stellar performance to this point, as well; his 27.8% is the 13th-best figure in all of baseball this year among qualified starters, while his 4.3% walk rate places him ninth. Only Chris Sale, Jack Flaherty, and Pablo Lopez have struck out more batters while walking fewer than Imanaga this year, leaving the 30-year-old’s complex $53MM guarantee with the Cubs appearing to be one of the biggest steals of the offseason a third of the way through the 2024 campaign.

More from around the NL Central…

  • The Pirates offered updates on a handful of injured players today, as noted by Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Most notable among those updates was that regarding third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. Hayes has been on the shelf for two weeks due to low back inflammation but has resumed full baseball activities, and manager Derek Shelton told reporters (including Hiles) that they will meet to discuss the next steps of his rehab process. Given that encouraging update, it’s feasible to imagine Hayes heading out for a rehab assignment in the coming days, which could allow the third baseman to return to Pittsburgh at some point in early June. Jared Triolo has handled the hot corner while Hayes has been on the shelf.
  • Sticking with the Pirates, that same list of injury updates also relays positive news regarding catcher Jason Delay. The backstop underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee in mid-April and was expected to miss at least six weeks of action before undergoing baseball activities, but is already slated to start a rehab assignment just over a month after undergoing the procedure. Delay is currently on the 60-day injured list and would first be eligible to return to action in early June, although it’s feasible his rehab assignment could last longer than that given the lengthy layoff. Yasmani Grandal and Joey Bart have handled duties behind the plate in Delay’s absence, and it’s unclear if Delay would return to the big league club or be optioned to the minor leagues once healthy enough to be activated.
  • The Reds scratched infielder Jeimer Candelario from their lineup against the Dodgers earlier today due to neck stiffness, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Candelario, 30, struggled in the early going of his first season with the Reds but has begun to heat up in recent weeks with a .279/.343/.492 slash line in his last sixteen games. It’s not yet clear if Candelario will be out for longer than today’s game, but even a brief absence would be a brutal blow for a Cincinnati club that is already without Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and TJ Friedl due to injuries as well as Noelvi Marte due to a PED suspension. Santiago Espinal and Spencer Steer are starting tonight at third and first base, respectively, and figure to handle the infield corners for as long as Candelario is out of action.

NL Central Notes: Imanaga, Pirates, Brewers, Carpenter, Reds

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Before the Cubs signed Shota Imanaga to a four-year, $53MM deal, the other finalists for Imanaga’s services were the Red Sox, Pirates, and Brewers, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  Boston’s interest in Imanaga was well-known, and Pittsburgh had also been linked to Imanaga’s market, even if the Bucs’ traditional lack of spending makes it somewhat surprising to learn that they apparently came relatively close to landing the southpaw.  Of course, “finalist” is a bit of a nebulous term, and it isn’t known just how close the Pirates might’ve come to Chicago in the bidding.  For instance, the Red Sox offered Imanaga two years and $26MM in guaranteed money according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, with two more vesting years covering the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

The Brewers are also a surprise entry, as it wasn’t publicly known that they were in on Imanaga at all, let alone one of the last four suitors in the running for his services.  Milwaukee also often operates with a limited payroll (albeit not as limited as the Pirates’ budget), and it’s interesting to speculate on what the team might’ve offered Imanaga, or whether signing the Japanese star might’ve kept from the Crew from any of their other winter business.  For instance, if the Brewers had signed Imanaga, would they have still had enough spending capacity to bring back Brandon Woodruff and/or Wade Miley, or would any further pitching additions would’ve been strictly of the lower-cost or minor league variety if Imanaga had been the team’s big offseason strike.  As Nightengale observes, any of Imanaga’s other suitors might have some regrets given how the left-hander has gotten his MLB career off to such a great start.

Some other notes from around the NL Central…

  • Matt Carpenter recently received a cortisone shot to deal with the oblique strain that has kept him on the injured list for almost four weeks, MLB.com’s John Denton writes (X link).  The shot led to a shutdown, and it isn’t clear when Carpenter will be ready to begin a minor league rehab assignment, though he has been able to take batting practice.  Carpenter reunited with the Cardinals on a one-year deal this past winter, but played in just three games before suffering his oblique problem.
  • X-rays were negative on both Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Tyler Stephenson after the Reds duo were each hit on the hand by pitches in Saturday’s game.  Encarnacion-Strand might be the slightly more serious situation of the two, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that the infielder’s X-ray revealed a small previous fracture in the same spot that CES was hit on Saturday.  Encarnacion-Strand said he had “no clue” about the origin of the older injury, and he hadn’t felt any discomfort prior to this most recent HBP.  It isn’t yet clear if Encarnacion-Strand will get an MRI to further explore the injury, but he hoped to return to the lineup within a day or two.
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