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Shota Imanaga

Shota Imanaga To Accept Cubs’ Qualifying Offer

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Shota Imanaga will be returning to the Cubs, as The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney reports that the left-hander has accepted the team’s one-year, $22.025MM qualifying offer.  The surprising decision means that Imanaga stays put after his time in Wrigleyville seemed to be over, following a series of declined contract options on the part of the Cubs and Imanaga himself.

The four-year, $53MM deal that Imanaga signed with Chicago in January 2024 guaranteed Imanaga $23MM over the first two seasons, and this offseason presented both sides with decisions.  The Cubs had to decide whether or not to exercise a three-year option on Imanaga’s services that would’ve paid him $57.75MM over the 2026-28 seasons, and the team decided to decline.  Imanaga then had a $15.25MM player option for just 2026 that he also declined, even though exercising that option would’ve then created a $42.5MM club option for the Cubs for next winter covering the 2027-28 seasons that (if declined) would’ve created a $15.25MM player option for Imanaga for 2027.

The Cubs issued Imanaga the qualifying offer to ensure some compensation if Imanaga signed elsewhere, yet as it turned out, Imanaga will indeed take a one-year pact to remain, with roughly $7MM added beyond the price of his player option.  He would’ve locked in at least $30.5MM for himself by exercising his player option and generating that other player option for next winter, so he is currently leaving $8.475MM on the table given how this rather complicated situation turned out.

A 2026 season more in line with Imanaga’s impressive 2024 rookie campaign will easily land a multi-year contract worth far more than $8.475MM next winter, even though the lefty turns 33 in September.  He’ll be able to re-enter next year’s free agent market without the QO compensation attached to his services.  This removes one obstacle for Imanaga in free agency next winter, but more consistency on the mound will be the deciding factor.

Imanaga posted a 3.73 ERA, 20.6% strikeout rate, and an elite 4.6% walk rate over 144 2/3 innings for Chicago this season.  Apart from his great control and the solid bottom-line ERA, the rest of Imanaga’s peripherals were almost all well below the league average.  The problems included a lot of hard and high-impact contact, as only three pitchers allowed more home runs than Imanaga’s 31 big flies in 2025.

A hamstring strain cost Imanaga most of May and June, but he still managed a 2.40 ERA over his first 75 innings of the year before things started to turn in the second half.  Twenty of Imanaga’s 31 home runs allowed came during his last 69 2/3 innings of the season, resulting in a 5.17 ERA.  Things didn’t get any better in the playoffs, as the southpaw posted an 8.10 ERA and gave up three more homers in 6 2/3 frames of postseason work.

These issues with the long ball were also apparent in Imanaga’s 2024 season, if not to the same extreme level.  He also allowed less hard contact and had a solid 25.1% strikeout rate, while delivering a 2.91 ERA over 173 1/3 innings.  This excellent debut season earned Imanaga a fourth-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting, a fifth-place finish in Cy Young Award voting, and his first All-Star nod.

Given how well Imanaga was seemingly adjusting to the big leagues over his first season and a half, it seemed like a lock that the Cubs were going to exercise their options to keep Imanaga in the fold through 2028.  However, his rough finish to the season seemingly changed the Cubs’ mind about such a substantial commitment.

Likewise, Imanaga and his reps at Octagon could’ve been concerned over how the market would react to his homer-heavy final 69 2/3 innings.  MLB Trade Rumors ranked Imanaga 22nd on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents and projected him for a three-year, $45MM deal, but Imanaga and his reps at Octagon might have viewed the qualifying offer as an impediment to an acceptable contract.  If Imanaga was going to have to settle for a short-term “prove it” type of deal anyway, accepting the QO allows him to aim for a bounce-back season in a familiar environment, and for a bigger one-year average annual value.

Returning to the Cubs also allows Imanaga to play for a team that should again be playoff contenders.  Starting pitching should still continue to be a need for Chicago even with Imanaga back, but at least one box has now been checked off of the team’s rotation plans.  Imanaga joins Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, and Colin Rea in the projected starting five, with Justin Steele theoretically able to return from a UCL revision surgery relatively early in the 2026 campaign.  Javier Assad and Ben Brown are also on hand, but the Cubs will want to bolster this group with at least one more reliable starter, given how the team didn’t trust its depth (including Imanaga) during the postseason.

Inset photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski — Imagn Images

Latest On Cubs, Shota Imanaga

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The Cubs are headed into this offseason prioritizing pitching additions, as president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters (including Robert Murray of FanSided) yesterday. Hoyer noted that the club already has “a lot of position players,” which will lead them to prioritize giving a boost to both the rotation and bullpen.

It’s not necessarily a shocking update. While star outfielder Kyle Tucker’s free agency leaves a hole in the middle of Chicago’s lineup, it’s long seemed as though he was likely to end up elsewhere upon reaching free agency given the Cubs’ hesitance when it comes to giving out top-of-the-market contracts. Jason Heyward’s $184MM contract signed back during the 2015-2016 offseason remains the largest deal in Cubs history, and Tucker is expected to at least double that figure. While Hoyer told Murray that he’ll “be talking to” Tucker’s representation and was effusive in his praise of the four-time All-Star, a focus on pitching makes more sense given that hesitance to spend at the top of the market and Chicago’s roster outlook.

The Cubs already have everyday players locked into the majority of the spots on their roster. Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson are one of the league’s top middle infield duos, Ian Happ is the franchise’s longest-tenured player who just earned his fourth consecutive Gold Glove in left field, while Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong have cemented themselves as core pieces at first base and in center field. Seiya Suzuki is also sure to be in the lineup on an everyday basis, whether that’s in right field or as the team’s DH. Things seem more or less settled behind the plate as well after a career year for Carson Kelly, with Miguel Amaya and Reese McGuire both in the fold to help back up the veteran as well.

If the Cubs were going to make an addition to the lineup, adding a corner outfielder or DH (wherever Suzuki isn’t playing) or a third baseman would make the most sense. Even then, however, the Cubs have a group of up-and-coming young position players who could get full-season looks next year like Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie, Moises Ballesteros, and Kevin Alcantara. Shaw’s 93 wRC+ in 126 games last year, including a 130 wRC+ after the All-Star break, makes it easy to justify giving him runway at the hot corner next year. While none of Caissie, Ballesteros, or Alcantara has received substantial playing time in the majors yet, between the three of them it’s not unreasonable for Chicago to think they could mostly handle one spot in the lineup.

By contrast, the pitching staff clearly needs work. Shota Imanaga is now a free agent, and with Justin Steele’s return date uncertain coming off Tommy John surgery the only pitchers locked into rotation spots for Opening Day next year are mid-rotation veterans Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon as well as Rookie of the Year runner-up Cade Horton. Even among that group, there’s some red flags. Boyd has a lengthy injury history and only just enjoyed his first healthy season since 2019. Horton ended the season on the injured list and missed nearly all of 2024 due to a shoulder strain. Taillon missed around two months due to calf and groin issues. While players like Colin Rea and Javier Assad are viable starters in their own right, they’re best served as swing options.

That leaves room for a rotation addition or two, and there’s plenty of interesting arms who could make an impact for the Cubs this winter. Dylan Cease and Framber Valdez might price themselves out of the Cubs’ comfort zone, but either would still be far less expensive than Tucker. Chicago has done well courting NPB talent in the past, so perhaps right-hander Tatsuya Imai could be a fit. Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Brandon Woodruff, and Zac Gallen are among the many names who the Cubs could look to bring into the fold.

That doesn’t mean a reunion with Imanaga can be ruled out, however. The Cubs extended the southpaw a qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason last week, and he’ll need to decide in the coming days whether or not to accept that one-year, $22.05MM offer. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Imanaga is expected to decline that offer, but that wouldn’t necessarily rule out a return even if he does so. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggests that the sides could look to reunite on a two-year deal this winter, which could come either before or after the QO deadline next week.

Reuniting with Imanaga would be a gamble, given the uncertain nature of Wrigley Field’s park factors and Imanaga’s struggles with keeping the ball in the park. Even so, however, it’s at least plausible that being attached to draft pick compensation dampens Imanaga’s market enough that a return to the Cubs makes sense for him. Chicago seems unlikely to participate in a bidding war for his services after declining a three-year, $54MM option on his services at the outset of the offseason, but if Imanaga were considering accepting the QO a two-year deal could theoretically allow the Cubs to lower the hit they’ll face for luxury tax purposes while also creating some additional security for Imanaga.

As for the bullpen, the Cubs are in need of reinforcements there most of all. Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, and Andrew Kittredge were all key high leverage arms for the team this season but are no longer with the club; the former three are free agents, while the latter was traded to Baltimore to avoid the buyout on his club option. That leaves Chicago with little certainty in the bullpen outside of Daniel Palencia, but reporting has suggested they won’t be very involved on top free agent relief arms like Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams. That still leaves a number of interesting veterans who could be had a one- or two-year deals, however, like Kenley Jansen and Pete Fairbanks.

MLBTR Podcast: Surprising Option Decisions, Qualifying Offers, And Paul DePodesta

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images

13 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Thirteen players have received a qualifying offer this year, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The list is as follows:

This year’s QO is valued at $22.025MM. All 13 players will have until Nov. 18 to decide whether to accept that one-year offer or decline and become a free agent. They can spend that time gauging the open market to determine interest in their services. If a player accepts the QO, he’ll be treated as a free agent signing and thus will be ineligible to be traded without his consent until June 15 of next year. If he declines, any team that signs him will be subject to draft and/or international bonus forfeitures, depending on its revenue-sharing and luxury tax status.

The bulk of the list was generally expected. Every recipient other than Torres and Imanaga was pegged as likely or a no-doubter to receive the QO on MLBTR’s annual lists of qualifying offer previews for position players and for pitchers. Torres was viewed as something of a long shot, at least on the MLBTR staff. He’s coming off a nice season in Detroit but struggled through a poor finish — perhaps in part due to injury — and wasn’t hit with a QO last offseason when coming off a comparable year at the plate in the Bronx.

Imanaga was listed as a borderline call on our preview as well. The Cubs declined a three-year, $57.75MM option on Imanaga last week. He subsequently declined a $15.25MM player option (which came with an additional player option at $15.25MM) — effectively opting out of a remaining two years and $30.5MM. The Cubs are banking on Imanaga also turning away one year at just over $22MM after turning down that remaining $30.5MM in guaranteed money.

The qualifying offer is determined each year by taking the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. We’ve already covered the penalties that each team would face for signing a qualified free agent, as well as the compensation each club would get for losing a qualified free agent to another team.

Among the notable free agents to not receive a qualifying offer are Lucas Giolito, Robert Suarez, Devin Williams and Jorge Polanco. Giolito might have received one had it not been for a late elbow issue that ended his season. Suarez has been excellent and just opted out of the remaining two years and $16MM on his contract, but he’ll be 35 next year. The Padres have been reducing payroll in recent seasons and likely didn’t want to risk Suarez locking in that weighty one-year sum. Williams would have received a QO with a typical season, but he struggled throughout much of the season’s first four months before a dominant finish. Polanco enjoyed a terrific rebound campaign but is 32 years old and was limited to DH work for much of the season due to ongoing injury issues.

The qualifying offer grants each of these free agents the chance at a notable one-year payday, though the majority of them will reject without much thought. Players like Tucker, Bichette, Schwarber, Valdez, Cease, Suarez and Diaz are likely to see comparable or larger (much larger, in Tucker’s case) salaries on multi-year deals in free agency. Even players like Grisham, who probably won’t land a $22MM annual value over multiple years, are still likely to reject. Major league free agents typically — though not always — prioritize long-term earning over short-term, higher-AAV pacts. A three- or four-year deal worth $14-16MM per year, for instance, is typically viewed as preferable to accepting one year at a higher rate.

There’s risk in declining the offer, of course. Teams are more reluctant to sign players who’ll cost them valuable draft picks and/or notable portions of their hard-capped bonus pool for international amateurs. Every offseason, there are a handful of free agents whose markets are weighed down by the burden of draft pick compensation. That typically applies to the “lower end” of the QO recipients. For top stars like Tucker, Bichette, etc. — draft/international forfeitures are simply considered the cost of doing business and don’t tend to have much (if any) impact on the player’s earning power.

MLBTR Podcast: Offseason Preview Megapod: Top Trade Candidates

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images

Shota Imanaga Becomes Free Agent

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Left-hander Shota Imanaga has become a free agent, according to a report from Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs declined their three-year, $57MM club option on Imanaga’s services for 2026-28, and Imanaga subsequently declined his $15MM player option for 2026.

It’s an outcome that would’ve seemed unthinkable just a few months ago. Signed out of Japan to a deal that was on paper a four-year, $53MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason that had the aforementioned complex option structure set to kick in after the 2025 campaign, Imanaga was nothing short of sensational for Chicago in his first year as an MLB pitcher last year. In 29 starts, he pitched to a 2.91 ERA with a 25.1% strikeout rate across 173 1/3 innings of work that earned him an All-Star appearance and a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting last year.

While that strong rookie campaign seemed to portend a long stay near the front of Chicago’s rotation for Imanaga, things started to unravel this year. Early in the season, he managed to get strong results despite shoddy peripherals, with a 2.82 ERA through eight starts despite a 4.59 FIP and a strikeout rate that had plummeted to just 18.8%. His season was abruptly put on hold by a hamstring injury that cost him nearly two months, and when he returned his strikeout rate continued to dip. He did manage to fire off seven scoreless innings with five strikeouts during his first start after the All-Star break, but from there he began a downward spiral where his results started to match his lackluster peripherals.

From July 25 through the end of the season, Imanaga made 12 starts where he surrendered a 5.17 ERA with a 5.42 FIP across 69 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate actually recovered a bit during this stretch, creeping back up to 23.2%, but he allowed an eye-popping 20 home runs in that stretch. Imanaga has always had trouble with the long ball, and even in his excellent 2024 campaign he allowed the tenth-most homers among qualified starters. This year, his 31 homers allowed were the fourth-most in all of baseball despite him pitching just 144 2/3 frames. That’s fewer innings than anyone else in the top 20 besides Tyler Anderson, who allowed 28 homers in 136 1/3 innings of work.

In spite of his lackluster season, a poll of MLBTR readers on September 10 suggested that more than 91% believed the Cubs should exercise his club option. From that point onward, what seemed at the time like a borderline call became more clear as he posted an 8.04 ERA in his final three regular season starts before posting an 8.10 ERA in the postseason and ultimately being passed over for a winner-take-all Game 5 start against the Brewers in the ALDS despite him being on regular rest. By that time, this outcome seemed far more likely. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes took a guess at Imanaga’s future in our Offseason Outlook coverage of the Cubs on October 22, and settled on the sides both declining their options and Imanaga heading into free agency.

From the Cubs’ perspective, moving on from Imanaga is understandable for a handful of reasons. By picking up his option, the Cubs would be counting on Imanaga to rebound into at least mid-rotation form for his age-32, -33, and -34 seasons. That might not seem like a bad bet to make, but it’s worth noting that Wrigley Field is notoriously fickle in terms of park factors thanks to the wind. In 2024, when Imanaga was at his best with the Cubs, Wrigley suppressed home runs at the fifth-highest rate in all of baseball according to Statcast. This year, that inverted to make the Friendly Confines the 11th-friendliest ballpark in baseball to home run hitters.

Perhaps Imanaga will be able to return to form elsewhere, particularly if he signs in a park with more consistent homer-suppressing tendencies, but it’s not hard to see why the Cubs wouldn’t want to commit to him long-term given that reality. That doesn’t necessarily rule out the possibility that he’ll return to the Cubs at all; Rogers reports that it’s not yet clear if Chicago intends to extend Imanaga the qualifying offer. Recouping draft pick compensation for Imanaga if he departs would surely be attractive to the Cubs, and him accepting the QO may be preferable to having kept him on a three-year deal at a lower annual cost due to the short-term nature of the arrangement. With that said, the market has plenty of mid-rotation or better starters available this winter, and the Cubs might prefer to not risk Imanaga accepting the offer so they can reallocate those dollars to a starter they feel better fits their roster.

Cubs Notes: Tucker, Imanaga, Horton, Coaching Staff

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The Cubs had a solid season in 2025 but it came to an end on Saturday when they dropped Gave Five of the Division Series to the Brewers. That turns the focus to the offseason and some upcoming decisions. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer held an end-of-season press conference yesterday but largely avoided tipping his hand about anything. Reporters such as Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic and Jordan Bastian of MLB.com provided dispatches from the presser.

Kyle Tucker’s impending free agency will be a big storyline this winter and Hoyer provided some boilerplate comments about trying to retain the player. “Everyone can use a guy like Kyle Tucker. Everyone gets better by having a player like that,” Hoyer said. “We’ll certainly be having those conversations.”

The Cubs obviously think highly of Tucker. Back in December, they gave up Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and Cam Smith in order to acquire Tucker’s final year before free agency. They saw Tucker near his best for a while. He slashed .291/.395/.537 through the end of June for a 157 wRC+ while stealing 20 bases.

But his results tapered off as the season went along. A finger fracture suffered in early June didn’t immediately slow him down but seemed to catch up with him eventually. A calf strain also popped up later in the season. From July through the end of the season, Tucker slashed just .225/.348/.342 for a 103 wRC+. He had a .259/.375/.370 line and 118 wRC+ in the postseason.

Despite the tepid finish, Tucker has shown remarkably well-rounded production when healthy and should still be in high demand this winter. From 2021 to the present, he has a combined .277/.365/.514 line and 143 wRC+. He stole 105 bases in there with strong defensive grades, though the glovework seems to be trending down. FanGraphs credited him with 23.4 wins above replacement, making him one of the ten most valuable position players in that stretch.

Though he is limping towards free agency, it’s still possible Tucker’s market will be strong enough that he could secure something like a ten-year, $400MM deal. The Cubs could do that, in a sense. They are a big-market club and their future payroll is quite clean, with Dansby Swanson the only guy really locked in beyond 2026. However, they would need to shatter precedent, as the largest contract in franchise history is Jason Heyward’s $184MM deal from a decade ago.

One other guy who is technically on the books beyond 2026 is left-hander Shota Imanaga, thanks to his convoluted contract. In the next few weeks, it will be determined if he stays on the books or not. The Cubs will soon have to decide whether or not to trigger a three-year, $57.5MM club option for the 2026-28 season. If they turn that down, Imanaga has a $15.25MM player option for 2026. If he triggers that, after 2026, the Cubs have to decide on a two-year, $42.5MM club option. If that is turned down, Imanaga would get another $15.25MM player option.

Hoyer technically responded to a question about Imanaga yesterday but without really answering anything. “When we signed Shota, if you’d shown us his production over the last two years, we would have taken that in a heartbeat,” Hoyer said. “So not only has he produced for us, but he’s just a great teammate and terrific asset to the organization. Obviously we have decisions to make and discussions to (have). Over the next two or three weeks we’ll do that, but I’ve got nothing but positive things to say about Shota.”

After Imanaga’s MLB debut in 2024, the club option seemed like a no-brainer. He posted a 2.91 earned run average over 29 starts. Despite his fastball averaging just 91.7 miles per hour, he was able to strike out 25.1% of batters faced and only gave out walks 4% of the time. But his results backed up here in 2025. As he averaged just 90.8 mph on his fastball, he posted a 3.73 ERA with a 20.6% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate. That includes a rough second half with a 4.70 ERA.

Since Imanaga is now 32 years old and his trends aren’t great, it’s possible the Cubs may look to quit while they’re ahead. Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Cade Horton will have spots in next year’s rotation. Horton finished the season on the injured list due to a rib fracture but is healthy now. He actually would have been on the NLCS roster if the Cubs had advanced, per Bastian. Justin Steele will be back from his UCL surgery at some point. Colin Rea can be retained via a $6MM club option, which has a $750K buyout. Guys like Ben Brown, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks will be in the mix.

Subtracting Imanaga from the group would further thin out a group that already looks lacking. On the other hand, adding Imanaga back in there would leave the rotation feeling decent but lacking in upside. There’s an argument that they should turn down their option and use the money saved to pursue more of a front-of-rotation arm. This winter’s free agent market will feature guys like Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Tatsuya Imai, Ranger Suárez and others. The trade market could feature MacKenzie Gore, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray and others.

As for the coaching staff, Hoyer noted they would all be invited back. That makes it possible the Cubs face minimal turnover this winter but it’s also possible some staffers get poached by other clubs. There are eight managerial vacancies and bench coach Ryan Flaherty has already been connected to a few of them. Once those new managers are hired, they will likely have some ability to make coaching decisions. That should lead to a lot of coaching musical chairs this winter, so time will tell if that impacts anyone with the Cubs.

Photo courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images

Poll: Shota Imanaga’s Contract Option

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After being largely overshadowed by Yoshinobu Yamamoto when he was posted for MLB clubs during the 2023-24 offseason, southpaw Shota Imanaga landed with the Cubs on a deal that has worked out well for Chicago so far. Imanaga was an All-Star and the fifth-place finisher in NL Cy Young voting during his first season, and this year he’s chipped in a strong 3.21 ERA across his 22 starts. Chicago is squarely focused on October at the moment, with their first postseason berth since 2020 all but clinched. Once the postseason comes to an end and the offseason jumps to front of mind, however, the Cubs will face a significant decision regarding Imanaga because of the unusual nature of his contract.

Nominally, the contract is a four-year deal worth that guarantees the southpaw $53MM. That’s not quite how the contract actually works in practice. After the 2025 season, the Cubs face a decision on whether to pick up a three-year, $57MM club option that covers the 2026-28 seasons. If Chicago declines, Imanaga will have a $15MM player option for 2026. If that player option is executed, then there’s another fork in the road ahead. After 2026, the Cubs would have to decide on a two-year, $42MM club option for 2027-28. If they decline that, Imanaga can pick up a $15MM player option for 2027.

All of that is to say that the Cubs are facing a significant decision this offseason. If they don’t exercise their three-year option on Imanaga’s services, he’s all but certain to decline that player option and return to free agency. One-year rolls of the dice on older players like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton last offseason cost $15MM, so it’s all but guaranteed that Imanaga could do better than that if he were to test free agency. The question then becomes if Chicago wants to keep Imanaga in the fold for the next three seasons for that aforementioned $57MM figure.

On the surface, that might appear to be an obvious choice. Imanaga is an All-Star with a career 3.04 ERA in the majors and is a big part of the Cubs’ success this year. A look at Imanaga’s underlying numbers paints a slightly less certain picture, and that’s especially true for this season. A hamstring injury cost Imanaga nearly two months, so he is not qualified for the ERA title. That said, among 92 starters with at least 120 innings, the lefty’s 4.55 FIP is tied with teammate Colin Rea for 65th. His 4.57 xFIP ranks 73rd, and 4.43 SIERA ranks 61st.

With Imanaga ranking in the bottom third of the league among starters this year by so many metrics, it’s worth at least looking under the hood to see what’s causing that downturn in peripherals. Only 15 starters in baseball (again, min. 120 innings) have a higher opponents’ barrel rate than Imanaga, and that’s left him very susceptible to the long ball. Just 14 starters in that group have allowed more home runs, despite Imanaga’s relatively small volume of innings. His ERA would be much higher without the fourth-highest strand rate in that set of starters.

Imanaga also has a .209 BABIP that’s the lowest among that same group by nearly 20 points and 55 points lower than his own figure last season. He’s benefited from some pretty significant luck when it comes to batted balls and sequencing. Imanaga’s four-seamer, sinker, and sweeper have all lost a tick of velocity relative to last year. He now sits just 90.8 mph on average with the heater, and while velocity isn’t necessarily a requirement to find success in the majors, the decrease is somewhat concerning when looking at his 20.2% strikeout rate — down from 25.1% last season.

Are those red flags concerning enough that the Cubs should really consider letting him walk? While much of Imanaga’s success at beating his peripherals this year can be chalked up to good fortune, consideration must also be made for Chicago’s excellent defense. The Cubs figure to have both Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field and Dansby Swanson at shortstop well past the end of the 2028 season, and with elite defensive talents working behind Imanaga it’s feasible that he could continue beating those peripheral numbers.

Another consideration is the possibility that Imanaga’s underlying numbers could improve next season with a normal start to the season. Between the Cubs’ trip to Japan for a two-game set against the Dodgers and the lefty’s early hamstring ailment, Imanaga had an unusual start to 2025. His strikeout rate has ticked back up to 23.1% clip since since the All-Star break, and he actually punched out 26.2% of his opponents in August, so maybe that trend line could create some optimism.

Regardless of whether more strikeouts and stronger peripherals can be expected for Imanaga, there’s an argument that three years and $57MM is a solid value for even a middle-of-the-road starter on the current market. Talented arms with All-Star track records can make a pretty penny on an annual basis, even entering their age-32 seasons, as Imanaga will be next year.

As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi and Sonny Gray all secured $75MM over three years for contracts beginning at age 32 or later. Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt landed $63MM guarantees over three-year terms heading into their age-34 seasons. The current $19MM AAV on the three years covered by that club option isn’t much larger than the $17.5MM AAV the Yankees paid a 33-year-old Marcus Stroman over two years and coming off a season with lesser results.

While Justin Steele will return from UCL surgery next year and Cade Horton has emerged as a long-term rotation piece, players like Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon are set to depart the Cubs rotation after 2026. Having another arm locked up for the long haul could have value for the Cubs so that they aren’t scrambling for innings going forward.

What do MLBTR readers think the Cubs should do about Imanaga’s contract option? Should they pick up that three years and $57MM for Imanaga’s age-32 through age-34 seasons, or should they bet that they can do better and give him the chance to walk? Have your say in the poll below:

Should The Cubs Exercise Their Three-Year, $57MM Option On Shota Imanaga?
Yes, lock Imanaga up for 2026-28 despite his shaky peripherals. 91.28% (1,424 votes)
No, decline the option and risk him walking in free agency. 8.72% (136 votes)
Total Votes: 1,560

Poll link, in case above is not working.

Cubs Designate Michael Fulmer For Assignment

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The Cubs have designated right-hander Michael Fulmer for assignment, per a team announcement. That move will clear space on the active roster for the reinstatement of lefty Shota Imanaga, who’ll return from the injured list to start today’s game.

Fulmer only joined the big league club last week. He’d been pitching well with Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate in Iowa, working to a 2.96 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate in 24 1/3 innings. His two appearances with the Cubs were strong. He totaled three innings and held opponents scoreless on just two hits and no walks with one strikeout.

This is the second DFA of the season for Fulmer, the 2016 American League Rookie of the Year winner with the Tigers. He opened the season as a member of the Red Sox, having signed a two-year minor league deal in the 2023-24 offseason as he rehabbed from Tommy John surgery. He made just one big league appearance with the Sox, allowing three runs in 2 2/3 innings, before being designated there as well.

Now 32 years old, Fulmer broke into the majors with 26 starts and 159 innings of 3.06 ERA ball for the ’16 Tigers, claiming Rookie of the Year honors in the process. He was a key member of Detroit’s rotation for the next couple seasons before injuries intervened. In addition to Tommy John surgery, Fulmer has also undergone an ulnar nerve transposition procedure in his right arm as well as surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee. Detroit moved him to the ’pen early in 2021, and he went on to pitch quite well as a closer and setup man between the Tigers, Twins and Cubs over the next two-plus seasons.

While he’s not the high-end starting pitcher he was early in his career or even the hard-throwing, high-leverage reliever he was from 2021-23, Fulmer has generally looked solid in his first full season back from that UCL replacement. He’s pitched 36 innings of 3.00 ERA ball in Triple-A, averaging 92.7 mph on his heater there — he sat 94.3 mph in his two major league outings with Chicago — and pitched well in his latest MLB look.

The Cubs will have up to five days to explore trades before Fulmer must be placed on waivers to ensure that his DFA is resolved within the one-week maximum. (Waivers take 48 hours to process.) He can be waived at any time prior, of course. If Fulmer passes through waivers unclaimed, he’ll have the right to reject an outright assignment to a minor league affiliate with the Cubs and instead explore opportunities with the league’s 29 other teams.

Rotation Notes: Scherzer, Stroman, Imanaga, Eovaldi

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The Blue Jays will activate Max Scherzer from the 60-day injured list on Wednesday to start Toronto’s game against the Guardians, the team announced.  Scherzer has thrown two Triple-A rehab outings and then tossed 30-40 pitches in a bullpen session today in what seems like the final checkpoint in an extended recovery process from a thumb problem that has plagued the future Hall-of-Famer for over a year.  “My stuff is fine.  I’m trying everything I can to manage this (thumb) and make sure I can recover.  There’s no knowing, just have to get out there,” Scherzer told Sportnet’s Hazel Mae and Shi Davidi.

Scherzer signed a one-year, $15.5MM deal with the Jays this past offseason, but he lasted just three innings before thumb soreness forced him out of his Toronto debut on March 29.  As Scherzer acknowledged, it is anyone’s guess as to whether or not this thumb problem could resurface, and it stands to reason that the Blue Jays will limit Scherzer’s pitch count.  Since the 50-pitch threshold has generally been the tipping point for Scherzer’s thumb, it is a good sign that he threw beyond 50 pitches in both of his rehab starts, topping out at 74 pitches.  Toronto seems likely to explore piggyback or long relief options behind Scherzer on Wednesday and for the foreseeable future, until Scherzer feels comfortable enough to test throwing deeper into games.

Here’s the latest on some other prominent pitchers nearing a return to a big league mound…

  • Marcus Stroman will throw his third and possibly final minor league rehab start on Tuesday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch and other reporters.  Assuming Stroman gets through that outing (set for roughly 70 pitches) feeling good, Boone said Stroman might then “be in the mix” to be activated from the 60-day IL.  The right-hander made three starts before knee inflammation sent Stroman to the IL in April, and a setback resulted in Stroman being shifted to the 60-day IL as he continued his recovery process.  With Ryan Yarbrough hitting the 15-day IL today, there’s a ready-made opening for Stroman within New York’s rotation.
  • A left hamstring strain has kept Shota Imanaga out of action since the first week of May, but after making three minor league rehab starts, Imanaga will return to the Cubs’ rotation this week.  Manager Craig Counsell shared the news with reporters (including Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times), but stopped short of confirming that Imanaga would indeed pitch during the four-game series with the Cardinals that begins on Monday.  The Cubs are still monitoring Matthew Boyd after the southpaw suffered a bruised shoulder in his last start, so there’s a bit of flux in the rotation order until Boyd’s status is confirmed.  Regardless, Imanaga’s return is obviously great news for a Chicago team is leading the NL Central despite operating without Imanaga and Justin Steele for the majority of the season.  Following his spectacular 2024 rookie year, Imanaga has kept it going in 2025 with a 2.82 ERA in 44 2/3 innings and eight starts this season.
  • Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t pitched since May 27 due to right posterior elbow inflammation, but it seems as though he’ll return to the Rangers without a minor league rehab assignment.  Manager Bruce Bochy indicated (to Shawn McFarland of the Dallas Morning News and other reporters) that Eovaldi will be activated from the 15-day IL to start during the Rangers’ upcoming series with the Mariners that begins on Friday.  Though Eovaldi won’t need any rehab starts, he did ramp up in the form of a live batting practice session of over 50 pitches on Saturday.  With Tyler Mahle, Jon Gray, and Cody Bradford all still on the Texas IL, getting staff ace Eovaldi back is an enormous help, as the righty had a sterling 1.56 ERA in his first 69 1/3 innings of the season.
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