The Braves traded 2022 second-rounder Cole Phillips and ate the majority of Marco Gonzales’ contract and the remainder of Evan White’s contract in order to acquire Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners earlier in the offseason. They took on just shy of $26MM in salary and luxury tax obligations in order to facilitate the deal. It was a fairly big bet on a once-elite prospect whose bat hasn’t yet come around at the big league level.
A good portion of Kelenic’s struggles in the big leagues thus far have come against left-handed pitching — he’s hit just .189/.255/.311 against fellow southpaws — but Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said Thursday that his team is leaning toward everyday at-bats for Kelenic rather than a platoon role (X link via The Athletic’s David O’Brien).
The remainder of the Braves’ lineup is a powerhouse, so the team can afford to give Kelenic some leash and see if regular at-bats and a change of scenery can help to unlock some of the potential that made him a top-10 draft pick and one of the sport’s top five overall prospects prior to his debut. Kelenic touts a .304/.372/.567 slash in 580 Triple-A plate appearances but is a career .204/.283/.373 hitter in 974 MLB plate appearances.
Kelenic got out to a big start in 2023, hitting .297/.350/.564 with 10 homers in his first 180 plate appearances. He was benefiting from a .375 average on balls in play and striking out at a lofty 29% clip, but it was nonetheless an encouraging showing. He fell into a prolonged slump soon after, however, hitting .205/.291/.311 in a near-identical sample over his next 182 trips to the plate. Frustration boiled over, and Kelenic suffered a broken foot upon kicking a water cooler after striking out in a key ninth-inning at-bat against Minnesota’s Jhoan Duran. He landed on the injured list, returned in mid-September and hit .261/.370/.283 in his final 54 plate appearances of the season (and of his Mariners tenure).
The Braves are light on platoon options for Kelenic anyhow, although designated hitter Marcell Ozuna or non-roster invitee Jordan Luplow could conceivably have filled such a role. Atlanta only played Ozuna in left field for two games last year, however. He spent his other 141 games at designated hitter. It seems clear they prefer to avoid using him in the outfield. Luplow could still make the club as a pure bench bat, but the team’s decision to give Kelenic a full-time look in left field is a significant roadblock to what previously appeared to be his likeliest role. An everyday role for Kelenic also lessens the chances of the Braves adding a veteran outfielder in free agency or via trade, though there haven’t been any recent rumors suggesting they were pursuing that type of move anyhow.
Atlanta’s bench has at least two spots all but spoken for. Travis d’Arnaud will once again be a backup catcher and occasional designated hitter. Luis Guillorme was signed to a low-cost one-year deal after being non-tendered by the Mets. He’s out of minor league options and thus likely to hold a utility role.
That move clouded the outlook for infielder David Fletcher, who isn’t on the 40-man roster after being outrighted over the offseason. At the time, Fletcher’s outright looked like a procedural move. The Braves knew his contract would go unclaimed and that he wouldn’t reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, as doing so would’ve required forfeiting the $14MM remaining on his deal. Fletcher is just four days shy of the five years of MLB service needed to reject an outright and retain his full salary. It looked as though that technicality allowed the team to temporarily free up his roster spot, but in Guillorme the Braves acquired a versatile infielder with a similar skill set. Fletcher could still be added back to the roster in a utility role, but the presence of Guillorme makes that far less certain.
O’Brien further adds that one of the ostensibly “open” bench spots will go to someone who can offer speed. That bodes well for 28-year-old outfielder Forrest Wall, who swiped 57 bags in 65 tries (87.7%) between Triple-A and the big leagues last season. Wall appeared in 15 games with the Braves but tallied only 15 plate appearances, typically entering as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement. He swiped another 52 bases with the Mariners’ Triple-A club the prior season. Wall is already on the Braves’ 40-man roster.
We all know the Braves can develop a hitter. But if Kelenic breaks out, the M’s have to ask themselves why the Braves were so confident they could fix what Seattle couldn’t.
If he breaks out. If he doesn’t the Braves would need to ask themselves why they were so confident they could fix what Seattle couldn’t.
I’ve followed Kelenic since he was 18. I’d be shocked if there was a massive change in ATL. He’s a headcase that despite years of counseling and coddling, still crumbles under the slightest adversity.
The Braves track record with hitters is comparable to the Rays or Dodgers with pitchers. They have earned their confidence. Even if Kelenic doesn’t work out, I don’t think they need to start questioning their process.
If the Braves don’t try Forrest Wall, then send him to Texas where they could sure use a Wall
All it takes is one guy in Braves organization to have saw something he thinks can be fixed that others might have overlooked.
Tom Brady was drafted by the Pats as their QB coach at the time Dick Rehbein was likely only guy in NFL proclaiming him the best QB in the draft. We know how that 6th round flyer turned out.
I’d have to think in this situation someone with Braves sees something they deem fixable. The $ and what’s at stake for Braves seems to much for them to be operating off of hope.
A solid Wall beats a barb wire fence
He must have really been the only one because after Griese Lloyd Carr wanted no part of Brady & gave Drew Henson every chance in the world to be Michigan QB.
I don’t care who saw what nobody & I mean nobody other than Tom Brady himself saw his success coming. Knew he was the best QB in the draft but waited til round 6 to open his mouth to get him picked
Please Bill needed an arm in camp and took a flyer on the kid
All Brady’s success is from his hard work & determination alone
Yeah, plus the Mariners aren’t exactly known for developing players, offensively or defensively, other than pitchers (which to be fair they seem to excel at).
Yeah I get that the Braves have a good track record developing. So far Kelenic is the only young hitting prospect the Mariners current front office has failed to develop is my point. Why would they need to rethink their methods?
I wouldn’t say they’re terrible at it either .. they had plenty of success developing or turning around players in the last several years (Julio Rodriguez lived up to potential, Cal Raleigh, Hanover before injuries, JP Crawford has been better there then Philly… )
Curly – stupid comment.
@Steeler and the reason they took that flyer in the 6th was then QB coach Dick Rehbein. Unfortunately he passed away in 2001 so he never saw just how right he was.
I was in no way saying Brady’s success was due to anyone but himself. Didn’t even mention his success for that matter. The only thing I was stating is there was one gut who saw something apparently nobody else did.
Why would you expect Kelenic to break out for a team that had their prez (Mather) on-tape admitting to holding him down? Kudos to J-Rod for not letting that hold him back from becoming the face of the franchise, but Kelenic was the main get in the Edwin Diaz/Cano deal and former 6th overall pick with a different kind of pressure on him. “Change of scenery” is real…and the simple relocation, surrounding him with vets that have done it and let him mature buried in a historic lineup — one similar that allowed Harris II to mature and win RoY batting in the 9th spot (!) is the goal. No secret formula.
Nothing will change with him until he grows up, for his sake I hope it’s before his career is over.
He is also out of options, and therefore cannot be sent down. A DFA is possible if he slumps to start the season. That would be a very expensive DFA.
Kelenic still has a minor league option remaining
@Ringorbust If Kelenic doesn’t bust out and merely gives the Braves the 2 WAR he gave Seattle in 2023 from here on out, they come out ahead on the deal.
It would be nice, but they don’t even need that. This is one of those rare “heads we tie, tails we win” deals for the team.
How so? ATL also gave up 2022 2nd rd pick Cole Phillips and Jackson Kowar. I have a feeling the Mariners pitching lab might be able to turn Kowar into a high end set up guy in the bullpen this year and we’ve already seen what they can do with high draft capital pitching prospects like Phillips.
Also he had a 1.3 FWAR which was propped up by a scorching hot April. He was losing WAR every month after until he broke his foot in a fit of rage. Most likely would have ended season substantially under 1 war.
This really sucks if true but Phillips supposedly had a 2nd TJ surgery so that trade actually looks better already for Braves.
He’s also just 24 years old; not like he’s a seasoned vet. plus they’ve had a decent amount of success with outfielders they’ve acquired in recent years.
Knowing Seitzer it’s probably going to be something simple, too. Like dropping his hands more in front of his body (harris/acuna) or slightly altering his stance. The Braves analytical approach to hitting may help him a bit also. They love to swing.
Thinking Chipper might also work w/him to lessen his exaggerated leg kick.
Love it. Hope he blossoms.
So why does Baseball Reference show Kelenic hitting lefties better than right hand pitching in 2023? It seems this hoped for outcome happened last year in Seattle.
.774 OPS vs LHP
.738 OPS vs RHP
Those numbers may be skewed because of sample size. How many ABs did he have against each type of pitcher last year? Him knowing he’s going to be in the lineup everyday will give everyone a better sense of what he can do against both.
I agree with you. Him getting the chance will prove what he’s all about. He’s only 24 and still has potential. We’ll find out soon. Cheers everyone!
HotF
Probably because he had a better OPS vs L than R last year
But you should look at a few things to see if it seeems reasonable
1) K and BB rates. If the rates are vastly different, the performance probably will be too over a larger sample
2) BABIP
I’d bet at least 1 of the 2, and likely both, are out of wack
Platoon numbers take years and years to be predictive.
The Kelenic braves trade still surprises me. To trade him in a salary dump at age 24 with years of control left never made much sense. I’m sure the Ms know something that I don’t but still…
They knew he had no options left and had no confidence in him holding the roster spot. They could see DFA coming if he stayed in Seattle.
He has an option left. Saying it multiple times doesn’t make it true.
I suspect it had more to do with what Atlanta insisted on getting in order to take on the other contracts. The Mariners’ beat writers were pretty clear that Scott Servais (M’s manager) was not happy about losing Kelenic.
Exactly. It wasn’t Seattle gave up on Kelenic as much as they wanted to get rid of the awful Gonzales and White contacts. People seem to have that twisted while ignoring the money they’ve jettisoned this winter.
My educated guess is that Jarred has been overhyped as something he just isn’t.
AAA slash line: 0.302 / 0.374 / 0.560
Expected slash line (18% reduction in production from AAA to MLB): 0.248 / 0.307 / 0.459
MLB slash line: .204 / .283 / .373
If you look at 2023, his numbers were exactly on par with his expected slash line: .253 / .327 / .419
Is it possible he improves upon his numbers? Sure. But, I think it’s time to stop thinking of him as the next Ken Griffey Jr. and understand that the guy was 8% better than league average for wRC+ in 2023 and had a WAR of somewhere between 1.3-2.0 in 2023 (depending if you look at FG or BR).
Seattle is a tough place to play for some guys. Maybe he will thrive in Atlanta as a new environment. He’s certainly not called on to carry the offense with his new team. Lower expectations could be extremely beneficial as well.
@Wagner>Cobb
Yeah, I think he’ll do fine in ATL. Is he on course to be the next future HOFer? Probably not, but I like the prospects of him having less pressure on him and just going out and being a contributing player to the team. If he puts up another 2+ WAR season, that’s just bonus.
I think this is a fair prediction. I think he can be a 25-25 guy with enough playing time and possibly make an all-star team or two. He seems like a guy who thrives on energy, and Atlanta has plenty of it. He’s not the next Harper, like many predicted though.
Theres still tools there to be a good hitter. I wouldn’t count on him being an allstar, but think he could. Given what he’s done any range of outcomes from a mid season DFA to an allstar appearance could happen, and both Atlanta and Seattle are well aware of that. The projections of him being a little below average seem fair despite that, but that means He projects to be average or better by his prime and could very well become a good player. I personally think the chances he’s a league average are better player this year are decent enough. I wasn’t a huge fan from Seattles perspective since they needed offense, but it made sense and wasnt out of line with his trade value at this point in his career.
Seattle is a tough place to LIVE, much less play. Half the year is totally depressing.
Born and lived in Seattle until moving to SoCal in my 30s. Seattle is really not depressing. It has incredible natural beauty and is one of the most economically gifted regions in US. If you enjoy the outdoors at all, Seattle is hard to beat.
Unless you go literally anywhere else around Puget Sound, or south where it’s not so bleak and wet from September to May.
Yes I was talking about the Puget sound area as a whole not being depressing. Also I mentioned I moved to socal but miss PNW
The Braves could use another MLB veteran bench hitter. Don’t feel like the team has enough MLB ready depth. I understand that they don’t alter their lineup much, but it is the weakest part of the big league team.
That bomb he hit at Wrigley Field is still the only ball I’ve seen land cleanly into the CF bleachers beyond the batters eye in the 35 yers I’ve been watching most every Cubs baseball game. It’s one of the most memorable home runs by a road player for me.
Tim Corcoran, an OF that played briefly with the Tigers, lead all of spring training in HRs to make the team. He then went on to only hit one all season. But when he connected, it was majestic! He put it off the facing of the third deck in old Tiger Stadium. We’re talking Reggie Jackson territory. Moral of the story is that any player can have that magic moment once. Doing it regularly is quite a different matter.
You are correct. I don’t think any player hits 480 ft HR’s “regularly”. The Braves don’t need him to do that from the 8-9 spot in the order. But my guess is, if he hits 9th with Ronald hitting behind him, I’m gonna go out on a limb and say he’ll get a few cookies down the middle and hit a couple moon shots in a Braves uniform.
Bring Matt Diaz out of retirement
Jarred Kelenic’s ceiling may be outfielder Tyler O’Neill, another buff former top Seattle prospect who made an MLB debut at a young age.
Atlanta hopes Kelenic can match the 5.5 fWAR O’Neill posted in 2021 but the Braves may need to settle for O’Neill’s disappointing production in his five other partial MLB seasons.
They aren’t that similar except both are kinda dumb. ONeill is a better player he just needs to stay healthy. ONeill has physical tools Kelenic could only dream of.
“benefitting from a ___ batting avg on balls in play”…well what was his average exit velo? BABIP over 180ab being chalked up to luck without even looking into the quality of batted balls is ridiculous (especially considering his avg wasn’t even absurdly high so much of the high OPS was extra base hits).
Average exit velo was 91 MPH and 75th percentile. Not too bad.
Well I meant over those 180 pa not the entire season. I was merely making a point about article, not really player. I have to imagine his avg exit velo (being in top 60 or so players last year) was much higher during that hot streak which would prove my point that it’s pointless to discuss the BABIP over those 180 pa as an excuse to chalk it up to luck.
As somebody that watched almost every at bat of Kelenic’s tenure in Seattle I personally think he’s a lost cause. He’s going to be one of the many that had the hype never pan out. And so be it, it’s not unique to Kelenic or Seattle. Its baseball. I personally like the kid and hope the Braves can figure it out for him but I just don’t think the ceiling is attainable anymore. He is what he is.
Giving up on a 24 y/o former #6 overall pick with ~5 cheap controllable years of service time is a luxury not many teams can afford to lose, but I’m glad SEA didn’t see anything more than a cooler-kick to keep him around. Our coolers are built different down here. Welcome to the A.
What’s always helped me is what I learned from Officer Carl Winslow, “3, 2, 1 / 1, 2, 3 — what the heck is botherin’ me…?” Use it, Jarred. It’s your’s.
The last former No. 6 draft pick the Seattle Mariners traded to Atlanta was Alex Jackson, whom the Braves gave up on when Jackson was 25 years old.
Wishing Jarred Kelenic the best in Atlanta.
Love how you’re acting like you know Kelenic better than Mariners fans who’ve been watching him for years. The cooler kick is a microcosm of years of emotional and immaturity issues. Mariners have been providing sports counseling etc for years and he can’t figure it out. Time will tell but money line would have to be heavy for me to bet he figures it out.
ATL has a MUCH lower bar for him than SEA, and that’s the point. I’m sure he’s not the only 24 y/o with some maturity issues ATL has seen. Hope there’s some that don’t give on a 24 y/o. Guy’s a project — no doubt about that — but if he doesn’t pan out in the 5 cheap years of control, their farm can produce his replacement in that time, if they haven’t already found it. They’re attempting to salvage what SEA couldn’t develop, just like former 1st rd pick: Alex Jackson. Fortunately, in both trades – they didn’t give up much. SEA gets to turn the page on a guy that represented another failed contract (Kelenic being the prize of the Cano shedding), ironically by shedding 2 more bad contracts (Marco Gonzales, Evan White). Where would SEA be if ATL didn’t do the heavy lifting SEA couldn’t do? Quite a luxury to give up on talent like that.
Translation: “I watched a lot of his AB’s, but I’ve never spoken to him or anyone he’s ever worked with. And in my expert opinion, he’s a lost cause.” I swear to god, the audacity some people have on social media and message boards continues to astound me.” You have absolutely no clue what you’re talking about. You’re just guessing. Austin Riley looked like a lost cause for about the same amount of time that Kelenic has been in the show, now he’s probably the best 3rd baseman in baseball.
“I swear to god, the audacity some people have on social media and message boards continues to astound me.”
Pot calls kettle black.;-)
Why because I called out some rando for talking out of his ass? ROFL
Pot calls kettle black.
Again.;-)
SLU deserves better.
“OH !! ThE AuDaCiTy!! OH ThE UnMiTiGaTeD AuDaCiTy oF SoMe PeOpLe!!!
Swanson was the #1 overall pick — and it took him 5 full seasons to hit above average (per OPS+). No one talks about him being sent down or how long it took for him to develop defensively (thank you, Wash) and layoff low-outside pitches (not unlike Riley/Albies/Acuna). Now the guy is the $177M man in the Windy City.
Translation: I watched almost one thousand at-bats from a kid that can’t hit anything other than straight fastball, has massive contact issues, and doesn’t provide enough value with his legs and glove to offset those negatives. I’ve watched WAY more Kelenic than you. And since you don’t work in a front office either your opinion is equally dogshit in my eyes.
I didn’t provide an opinion, because I have exactly zero inside info…same as you. But giving up on a kid who has about 1 full season of games where he was actually healthy is laughable. You don’t have to take my word for it, but a top-3 (probably top 1) GM in baseball went out of his way to trade for Kelenic. He’s said so multiple times in interviews. I trust Anthopolous’ scouting report on a player infinitely more than I trust yours. Sorry to burst your bubble.
Kelenic hits it hard. He runs well. His defense is good. And he’s one of these players who doesn’t deal well with adversity. Like John Smoltz was when he was young.
Braves went after Kelenic specifically. I’m trusting the Braves on this one.
Wait till they tell the headcase that he will be batting eighth or ninth. The crying and complaining will begin………
Guy already knows that. Most likely he’ll be 7th. But Michael Harris II won Rookie-of-the-Year in the 9th spot, and ATL had the most productive 7-9 hitters in MLB in ’23…so it really don’t matter where you stick ’em. That lineup surpassed Murderer’s Row (’27 NYY) in outhomering opponents. He’ll be fine no matter where he’s playing.
Braves looking for an everyday outfielder….how about Tommy Pham?
If Seitzer can fix Kelenic than why not give him the chance, if not Ozuna can play LF and Murphy/d’Arnaud can DH against lefties
In AA we trust. Hitting is contagious.
Go Braves !
Kelenic isn’t exactly replacing Babe Ruth in left field for Atlanta. Hitting in the bottom third of a stacked lineup should be a rewarding experience. A new start with a new team seems to me to be just what this young man needs.
In his 252 games with the Mariners, Jarred Kelenic batted more often in the 7 hole (57) than in any other slot in the less-loaded Seattle lineup. The 8 hole was the next most frequent with 44.
Kelenic has experience batting in the bottom third of an order.
For the cost of a prospect and $26M, yeah, I bet he isn’t going to platoon any time soon.
Braves aren’t planning to platoon Kelenic until they watch him hit vs. Lefties. Then he’ll give them no choice but to do so. By May or June, it’ll change, IMO!
He ran a .375 BABIP in those final 54 PAs after returning from the IL and had a .SLG% of just .282 to show for it.
Good luck, Atlanta. Hopefully they can fix his attitude along with his approach.
Wonder if they see Eli White as an option. But Braves really should invest in their bench.
I wish him well this year and hope he helps beat the Mets several times this year.
I’m going to go ahead a take a shot at some projections and predictions for Kelenic.
If he indeed does go on to post 2WAR season for the next 5 yrs, @9mil per WAR= 90mil in value. With him being a super two player, a guess on his salary for the next 5 years would be between 26-31mil. That gives the Braves 59-64 mil in surplus.
Using Truist park factors for home games, and if he stays healthy I’m going to say he posts more like 2.5-3 WAR seasons for an even higher surplus value.
Moreover I’m going on to say just this season alone he’s going to put up a slash line of .261/.337/.443/.780 with 22Hrs 81RBI’s and 76 runs scored. This is MY calculated guesswork. I really think within 3% higher/lower this is where he finishes this year, barring a major injury.
For a fast start in Atlanta, Jarred Kelenic should go all Serbian with the pronunciation of his last name: “Keh LENNICH”.
I wish him the best, but I’ve watched him for years, and if Kelenic ever strikes out less than ~30% I’ll be shocked. He made so many attempts to adjust and change things and it just never got better. There’s an enormous hole in his swing against lefties and he just can’t seem to fix it.
He has a lot of tools and I can see why he was a top prospect, but if he doesn’t get a lot better against lefties he definitely is a platoon bat 4th OFer only.