White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has been among the most widely-discussed potential trade chips of the offseason. At the start of the winter, it was widely expected that the 28-year-old would find himself in a new uniform by the time Opening Day rolled around. After all, newly-installed GM Chris Getz has not been shy about the club’s willingness to move Cease ever since declaring that the club had no untouchables at the start of the offseason, and Cease garnered plenty of interest from pitching-hungry clubs such as the Dodgers, Reds, Orioles, and Yankees throughout the winter.
Since then, however, Cease’s trade candidacy has seemed to lose some steam. Reporting has indicated that Getz set a hefty asking price for Cease’s services and has remained firmly entrenched at that level throughout the winter. Meanwhile, several potential suitors have moved on to other solutions: the Orioles acquired Corbin Burnes from the Brewers, the Reds and Yankees landed Frankie Montas and Marcus Stroman respectively via free agency, while the Dodgers assembled a new-look rotation led by Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. All this has led Getz to suggest that he expects Cease to be the club’s Opening Day starter when the season begins in late March, while the right-hander recently told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that he’s begun to search for apartments in Chicago in case he remains with the White Sox through Opening Day.
None of that is to say the door has been completely shut on the possibility of a trade, of course. After all, it’s nearly impossible to imagine Chicago deciding to retain Cease long term, with Cease himself recently confirming to reporters (including James Fegan of Sox Machine) that there have been no conversations between him and the club regarding the possibility of an extension. That’s hardly a surprise, as Nightengale relays that the White Sox have already informed Cease of their intention to trade him once a team meets their asking price, though no team has done so to this point. While recent injury news regarding Baltimore righty Kyle Bradish sparked some speculation that the Orioles would look to reignite the stalled trade talks, Getz himself indicated to Nightengale that the they’ve made no such overture regarding Cease to this point.
For Cease’s part, he’s indicated that he doesn’t have a strong preference regarding when or if he’s traded, telling reporters (as relayed by Fegan) that he loves Chicago but is “intrigued” by the possibility of playing for a contender.
“There are a lot of positives about staying here… I like the city of Chicago,” Cease told Nightengale. He then acknowledged that the situation is a “win-win,” adding that “It’s an honor to be wanted, and feel wanted. It’s hard to beat the feeling that you’re a difference-maker.”
Cease also made clear that his uncertain future won’t impact his preparation for the coming season, telling Nightengale that he “tries not to over-focus on it” and that he plans “to be a part of the team and enjoy everybody” while he’s still in the organization. Both Getz and manager Pedro Grifol echoed that sentiment while praising Cease for maintaining a strong presence in the White Sox clubhouse this spring despite the trade buzz surrounding the 28-year-old.
Per Nightengale, the White Sox prefer to deal Cease before Opening Day, though it’s worth noting that top free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still looking to find new homes of their own in a market without many publicly known suitors for front-of-the-rotation arms. While it’s certainly not impossible to imagine Cease’s market heating up once Snell and Montgomery sign, as Nightengale suggests as a possibility, it’s fair to wonder whether or not clubs that have to this point refused to make an overwhelming financial offer to Snell or Montgomery would feel additional motivation to make an overwhelming prospect offer to the White Sox in order to land Cease once the aforementioned duo comes off the board.
That could leave the Sox to carry Cease into the season in hopes that his trade value could increase ahead of the trade deadline this summer. It’s easy to imagine that coming to pass, should Cease return to the form he flashed in 2022 after a down season in 2023. Cease dominated to the tune of a 2.20 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 2022, finishing second in AL Cy Young award voting behind only future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. Cease’s star faded somewhat last season, however, as the right-hander struggled to a 4.58 ERA that was actually just below league average by measure of ERA+ despite a solid 3.72 FIP.
Should Cease return to form in the first half this year, it’s easy to imagine a club meeting Getz’s reportedly exorbitant demand over the summer, once they have more certainty regarding both Cease’s own performance and their own odds of contention, with that being said, a first-half performance reminiscent of his 2023 campaign could work in the opposite direction, to say nothing of the risk that Cease suffers an injury before he can be dealt, leaving the White Sox without their top trade chip as they look to retool following a 101-loss season.
I expect Cease to be traded by March 5th.
Tough since ST games start on Friday.
How would that have any effect on a trade? You know trades happen even during the season, right?
IK but he’ll likely be traded during the deadline(July 30th)
The Sox are asking way too much. He’ll either finish the season or the Sox will take the best deal they can get for him from a contender with a hole or 2 in their rotation. Probably the NYY…
Dombrowski spoiled the White Sox with the Chris Sale trade.
Moncada only being really good in ’19 juiced ball year and Kopech a headcase hard thrower that predictably lost couple years with TJS is spoiled?
DD did a masterful job selling high on his overhyped inventory. That is self-scouting. He refused to deal Devers in lieu of them even though the former were “higher ranked”.
Chris Sale is not comparable to Dylan Cease. Sale was a bonefide ace established over 5 previous seasons averaging 200+ innings and 5 WAR campaigns in fWAR or bWAR. Take your pick. Sale was better than Cease in every conceivable way, and he wasn’t coming off a bad year. Plus Sale had 3 years of control left, rather than Cease’s 2.
The trade scenarios aren’t related to each other.
No doubt-Sale was light years better than Cease. There is still a myth WSox got a haul for Sale just b/c of pre-trade prospect rankings. Good FO’s realize rankings are heavy on raw talent guys showing minor leaguers who’s boss. Many can coast on that in minors.
Mental toughness and work ethic are huge to evaluate b/c a lot of those guys will face true failure and setbacks for first time in their athletic life when against the best in MLB.
@cwsOverhaul, it’s too bad the myth is the White Sox fleeced the Red Sox. It’s just not true. While MiLB prospects come with a ton of risk, especially from R-A+, things start clearing up at AA and AAA. Flaws usually start getting exposed. Not always, but pretty frequently you can see it in K:BB rates for hitters and pitchers, along with things like consistently high or low BABIP.
This is a fun review of the Sale trade to Boston by BaseballTradeValues.
baseballtradevalues.com/articles/this-trade-in-his…
I don’t think a lot of guys fail the mental toughness part, but work ethic is a huge risk when front office’s try to get crafty and lock up super young guys through arbitration years, etc. Too often, they get paid, and then they get lazy.
In any case, the White Sox got a boatload of talent they failed to properly support and Boston got a World Series championship.
I’d wager it’ll be closer to July 5th.
Could also be the lack of bending by Boras re Snell & Monty sees a GM upping its prospect offer for Cease, being as he’s a literal bargain this season $-wise…
Getz wants a return worthy of an ace when Cease has been a fringe #2 starter. No one is going to overpay for a down season.
The scenario offering the best odds for a large return is one where he bounces back and the White Sox trade him as close to the trade deadline as possible when prices are inflated.
Dank I agree but let’s say Cease comes out flat out of gate and even worse he gets hurt between now and August 1st or whatever trade deadline falls on . Not only is it a terrible mishap for Cease it lowers his value. Right now his value is a high as it can be it really can’t get much higher it could only go down either way I think for the sox sake do it before opening day . He will bring nice haul for Southside.
Cease for Rengifo!
Quit smoking the monkey-skunk!!!
Cease’s stock price took a hit for his 2023. Baltimore should be all over Montgomery.
Agreed on Cease’s 2023. He’s a bit of a risk considering what Chicago wants in return.
Baltimore probably os aware what a dumpster fire Sox pitching management is. They brought Brian Bannister in now. We’ll see what effect he has on their pitchers. Cease stagnated so bad that teams are leery for sure rhat top dollar.
Dear JR,
Reflect on your waning legacy and mortality.
Stop begging for $1B in public stadium funding.
Spend a fraction of that to sign Snell AND Montgomery.
Keep Cease.
Win back the AL Central and your reputation!
Sincerely, White Sox fans
If this happen White Sox would be a .500 team.
Yeah, but ….hey… think about all their trade chips by the AS break..
Maybe. Even the best pitchers need run support. See Johan Santana with the Mets.
.500 may win the AL central.
@Good Guys – No chance less than a .525 will take it, but it might not take much better than that. A lot depends on the Tigers and Twins.
There’s always a division leader, especially when you can feed off at least a couple likely terrible teams.
.500 might win the Central…
Does it really matter what Cease thinks about being traded? Just asking.
Does it really matter what fans think about what Cease thinks about being traded? Just asking?
This is intended as a joke, not a dig.
You know it’s one of those topics where everyone says what they have to say. Canned responses all the way down.
If Montgomery wants 6 or 7 years near $30 million per season if I am a MLB team I stay far away.
Montgomery is not close to an Ace he is solid MLB starter but doesn’t get one strikeout per inning and his era is good but not great. He will be a terrible contract before you know it.
With just 39 wins in his career Gumby’s agent is asking money as if it was a 100+ young stablished hurler
Cease should want to leave if he really wants to win, its likely not going to happen in his career if he stays with the White Sox.
The Sox should want to move Cease before ST to minimize the chance of injury before they can move him. Getz will just have to suck it up and hope the minimal amount they get for Cease has a player that pans out big time.
“Minimal” is rather hyperbolic, don’t you think? He’s obviously not worth the crazy haul Getz has been reported to be demanding in trade talks, but they could absolutely get a very solid return for Cease if Getz would be a little more reasonable.
But thats it, the Sox are not going to be reasonable, they are acting like Cease has won a Cy Young and it was last season. So I think in their viewpoint is its going to be minimal compared to what they are looking for, but what would probably be the expected, by many, return for a guy like Cease. Cease could go somewhere else and win a Cy Young, but he has not yet, and teams are going to have to take a chance that last season was a hiccup and not the norm..
We don’t know what Getz is asking for Cease, so we don’t know if it’s reasonable.
Of course we don’t know the exact details, but it has been consistently reported all winter that Getz’s asking price is higher than sky high and AA (Braves GM) explicitly said the Braves looked into him but he was too expensive at their preseason fan fest event.
Considering how much starting pitching is always in demand and that close to a dozen teams reportedly approached Getz about Cease but Cease is still in Chicago, I would say that it’s fairly safe to assume that the reporting about Getz’s demands was probably pretty accurate.
They may see it as minimal, but that won’t make it minimal in any objective sense.
Now if they keep Cease into the season and he gets injured or repeats his middling 2023 performance, THEN we may get pretty close to a return that is legitimately minimal.
With Brian Bannister taking over in Chicago with pitchers…Getz has nothing to really lose by watching this play out to sew if Cease shows progress out of this stall. Sox pitchers are hard to trust right now….awful organization
All of the teams know exactly who Cease is. He’s been as durable as anyone and made more starts than any pitcher over the last 3 years. They know he’s an excellent pitcher that is still young and he could become even better – especially in a better organization.
Last year the White Sox were a s***show of a team with horrible defense and Cease had some bad luck. Teams know this. The Sox also know that they’re gonna get a nice big haul for him but a little less than their ask. It will happen when one team is ready to pull the trigger. It’s been a very slow market this year. It’s still likely to happen before the season starts just like it is for the FA’s still out there.
Cease has been “an excellent pitcher” in one season. Otherwise, he’s been generally above average.
Agreed except on Cease being excellent, he’s been very good and he was better than the numbers suggest he was last season.
My concern, without looking at hours upon hours of game tape, is his strand rate AND is that ridiculously low strand rate related to the pitch clock? That is especially concerning given baseball lowering the time between pitches with runners on base again. MLB front offices have a lot or nerds that can crunch numbers and process game tape that can compile a lot of data points on this but did he rush? Did he feel rushed? Is he a guy who previously took a lot of time to compose himself with runners on? How often did he check runners prior to the new rules?
Ceases velocity went down a tick last year and his hard contact rate went up, just about everything else stayed in line with minimal movements.
Also, a lot of the Sox pitchers were worse last year, I feel like I’d need to know why, obviously most of their players under performed as well so what was up in the Sox clubhouse?
“Numbers suggest” is not as valuable as “Numbers produced”
BABIP and a lucky HR:FB rate gave Cease “excellent” results in 2022. There’s nothing else in his history which suggests he should be relied upon as ace in a playoff caliber team.
Those 3 home runs right…. Made all the difference in the world.
And down throw BABIP out there if you don’t recognize his high BABIP last season (and the Sox horrendous defense for that matter).
And actually, high strike out pitchers have the highest levels of success in the playoffs, which Cease just so happens to be one of the best at missing bats.
If we assume he’s somewhere between the two, closer to 2021, and we go by xFIP and SIERA, that would put him about a 3.60 ERA, around 1.20 WHIP, about 10-11 K/9. If that’s the case, then what does two years of a 28 YO w/ those numbers bring back in a trade? I would think a top 100 and two upside prospects, but I’m guessing Chicago is starting w/ asking for 2 top 100 plus. We’ll see where it lands.
What does that bring back, 2 top 100 prospects in the lower 40 plus another prospect or two. Now, add 30 million in surplus value and the ability to extend a qualifying offer… what’s that worth?
#drascoo36 – Yes. Those extra 3 HRs made all the difference in expected runs allowed.
xFIP and FIP are pretty stable with Cease and over his past 3 seasons if you combine them
ERA 3.54, FIP 3.40, xFIP 3.76. That’s Dylan Cease in his prime.
Comparable to a typical season from a guy like Jose Berrios or a Marcus Stroman. Cease strikes more guys out, but he also walks more and he’s a fly ball pitcher (which is NOT good in the playoffs).
Consistently a mid 3s kind of guy. That’s what people are trying to get. Not a rotation leader. Cease is #36 among qualified starters across that 3 year span in ERA and xFIP.
Yeah, Im not sure about others, but I have watched Cease pitch in many of his games. He has a great slider, until guys stop swinging at it, then its ball 1 ball 2 ball 3, then he has to groove one or two in right down the middle and then a hit or walk. He has games where he cruises through the lineup once, maybe twice, then something bad happens: and error, a bad call by the ump, whatever, and he falls to pieces.. That’s the problem with Katz led pitching staffs really, they are OK, until they lose their focus. Im sure that scouts, that were at games and watching him as well, feel the same way. Stats are great, but they really do not always tell the whole story.
Could he go somewhere and be ‘the’ guy? Maybe, but its definitely not with Katz staring at his clipboard. The problem is that teams are not going to pay overpay (in their estimations) for a ‘maybe’. Finally tight sliders can also be a ‘boom! goes the elbow’. Cease already had one TJS, Ohtani and some others have shown you CAN blow it out again.
The consensus last year was that Kyle Gibson’s ~ 5.00ERA/4.00 FIP was because the Phillies defense was terrible and Baltimore’s defense would bring his ERA below 4.00. Yet he nearly duplicated his ERA/FIP from 2022 in 2023. Some pitchers consistently outperform their FIP while others underperfom it .I’ll take the guy with the lower ERA every time. FIP is outdated and a specious argument to rely on. At least use xERA if you want to claim a pitcher is better/worse than his actual results.
I’d argue they don’t know who he is. Sox have had a pathetic situation lately either the pitch coaching and other staff.
Yeah, I have no faith in Katz, new org above or not. The guy is too busy sleeping in the dugout while his pitcher gets his brains beat out. That is when he is not intently staring at his clipboard.
Cease has thrown the most pitches in MLB during last 3 seasons. Also, he leads all qualified pitchers in MLB in pitches thrown per inning. He has been durable, but these are concerning numbers.
Yeah when you add that to the fact his velo was down last year makes it even more concerning.
I don’t think the white Sox get back what they want even if he has a very good first half. That’s if the reported as is 3 top 100 guys and 2 other quality guys. I don’t see that happening no matter how well he pitches this year. Bottom line is the price will have to come down.
Especially for a guy who already had a TJS and throws ‘hard’ sliders.
Getz is showing how to make your boss like you by being just like him. Just like Jerry R asking for a billion dollars from the public to build his new ballpark. Both these guys are cheaper than cheap. Go out and get some players or you can play in any little league park. Sox fans are getting sick about how this club is handled. This coming from a life long Sox fan.
Getz wasn’t exactly a due diligence hire
I was waiting for MLBTR to post a story on that, but if I was the mayor of Chicago and Gov of Illinois, Id visit ‘The Chairman’ directly just so I could laugh in his face and tell him to $%^& off. He can play in his current stadium which he got scot free for another 30 years, maybe then it will finally balance out what the tax payers had to pay the first time for his stuff.
If I’m a prospective acquiring team I wait and see where we stand at the trade deadline and revisit Cease then. My needs might be completely different than a cease acquisition and/or Cease might continue his decline. Maybe Cease is the best pitcher in baseball at the deadline. I’m betting not and the price goes down everyday he’s rostered by the WS. The one thing we do know is White Sox management whether in the FO office or elsewhere usually gets it wrong at every turn.
With this orgs luck (combine with its ineptness) its a miracle they won in 05. My guess is that Cease’s elbow goes boom and he is shelved for 1.5 years and they get nothing for him. I wonder what the Vegas odds are for that happening?
Seems like the Sox are painting the same picture they painted as a return for Quintana what seems like a short time ago…..he also was proclaimed to be durable, Ace like, and would thrive on a better team…..so Chicago asks for the moon as a return……looking at Quintana now, how’d that all work out….
He said he likes Chicago and said he’s happy to be wanted so it only makes sense to trade him to the Cubs. Duh.
EVERY player says they love the team they are currently on. Im fairly certain Cease, and his agent Bora$$ both are well aware of the clown show mismanaging this org, and would love to get him out of there to a team that wants to win, and is in position to..
He said he likes the city of Chicago.. Read between the lines.
Sorry, meant to say, every player loves the team they play on, and by extension that also includes the city its in. The Sox will trade him to whoever gets then the biggest return, they ain’t doing it for the players benefit.
Cease makes 8M. While that is a seemingly cheap salary, this is Jerry we’re talking about. It is doubtful that Jerry would want to pay Cease 6M for 4 months of the season for some chance of getting better prospects in July than Getz can get for Cease today, bottom line. For that reason, I think Getz will be told to move him and take the best offer, and it is unlikely Cease will be on the opening day roster.
Getz expects Cease to start on OD.
The Sox front office has spewn nothing but phony narratives for the past 5+ years, going back to “the money will be spent”. If Jerry says to trade Cease, he will be gone.
Getz can expect anything he wants.. This is the same org that allowed the ‘VP of sitting on one’s ass’ to override the last GM and make trades (which makes me wonder who really made that Shields for Johnson and Tatis trade). The same org whose owner made the decision to remove Renteria, the guy that lived through this rebuild and saw success with his players finally, (to stab him in the back, may I add) and put in a guy who had not managed in 10 years in LaRussa, only to destroy any window they had in the previous rebuild.
TLR destroyed half the window and Pedro destroyed the rest of it.
Jerry destroyed all of it. Hiring TLR/Pedro, never signing an elite free agent since Albert Belle… all roads lead back to Ebeneezer Reinsdorf.
He will be in Atlanta the first minute he is a free agent. This is why many have balked at trading the farm.
He is not going to be a FA for at least 2 more seasons.. Make little sense they would be ‘waiting’ for that.
My hope is that Cease brings his value back up by the trade deadline and the Cubs make an offer Getz likes, Cease would do great behind a solid defense backing him up. That’s my superfan scenario for both Chicago teams!
I’d love to see a trade to the Cubs before opening day, actually. Why wait? No point in wasting 4 months of Cease on the South Side. The Cubs might be able to beat the top offer pretty easily if there isn’t a good one out there.
Cubs should sign Chapman, complete a gold glove left side of infield. I think Chapman would do more for the Cubs than Bellinger, personally. And might cost less too. Both Bellinger and Chapman came up in 2017. Chapman’s career WAR is 31 compared to 22 for Bellinger. Chapman has been way more consistent and has a lot less downside if there is any chance Bellinger reverts to his mysterious downturn in 2021/22.
I agree, Hoyer should get Cease now, but Chris Getz is asking for the moon, that’s why I think a Cease trade won’t happen until the trade deadline.
If Chapman is willing to take a reasonable contract, and not asking for top dollar as it’s implied by him not signing yet, sure why not. Still wouldn’t mind if Morel is at 3B even with his growing pains of learning to field at 3B.
I like Morel, I have not watched him enough, but Im wondering why he is not thought of as a regular in the lineup, as whenever I see Cubs highlights it always seems like he is in them if he is playing.. Maybe its just Im not watching more games and not seeing his negatives, but is he that bad with the glove or does he strike out a lot?
Morel is a DH bat which the Sox don’t need whatsoever.
So in other words, all trade talks have “ceased”