Feb. 29: The Mariners are hoping to have a formal update on Brash’s status tomorrow, manager Scott Servais said Thursday (X link via Divish).
Feb. 28: Mariners setup men Matt Brash and Gregory Santos were both shut down last week due to arm troubles, and while it appears there’s good news on one, the outlook on the other is ominous. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that Santos played catch yesterday and is beginning a throwing progression, but Brash is potentially facing an “extensive” absence. There’s some concern that Brash’s entire 2024 season may be in jeopardy, per Divish.
An absence of even moderate length for Brash would be a critical blow for the Mariners, who acquired the hard-throwing righty in a heist of a trade with the Padres and have since watched him blossom into a top prospect and potentially elite reliever. Brash’s 3.06 ERA in 70 2/3 innings last season is an impressive mark on its own, but that number doesn’t appropriately highlight some off-the-charts secondary metrics and a sensational four-month finish to close out the 2023 season.
Even as Brash posted a pedestrian 4.28 ERA through the season’s first two months, he was striking out a staggering 39.8% of his opponents against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (1.92) and SIERA (2.34) were far, far more bullish on his work than his more rudimentary ERA.
Those numbers indeed proved a portent for a breakout. From Memorial Day weekend through season’s end, Brash turned in a sensational 2.36 ERA. His strikeout rate in that time clocked in at 32.4% against a 9.7% walk rate. Brash averaged a blistering 98.2 mph on his heater, generated swinging strikes at a hefty 15.4% clip and induced chases off the plate at a 33.6% rate — all while keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 44.4% clip. He finished the season with four saves and another 24 holds. Skeptics may want to see him sustain that over a full season or two, but that overpowering stretch had all the characteristics of one of MLB’s best relievers.
Unfortunately, it seems Brash might not get the opportunity to prove he can sustain that breakout for some time. Neither the team nor the player himself has provided any specifics as to the nature of the arm injury with which he’s dealing. Brash downplayed the issue last week, telling Divish and others that he’s simply “banged up,” while GM Justin Hollander merely stated that the hope was for Brash to return to a throwing program sooner than later. The lack of any real detail on the injury seemed foreboding at the time.
If the 25-year-old Brash is indeed going to be sidelined for a substantial portion — or, far worse, the entirety — of the 2024 campaign, a strong Mariners bullpen will take an unequivocal hit. Seattle relievers were fourth in the Majors with a 3.48 ERA last season and led the big leagues with a 3.64 SIERA. Brash played a major part, as did the since-traded Justin Topa, who went to the Twins as part of the Jorge Polanco deal.
The surprise acquisition of Santos late in the offseason helped to compensate for Topa’s departure, but a major injury for Brash would be difficult to overcome. His production throughout the summer and down the stretch in 2023 simply isn’t the type of performance that can be readily replaced.
The Mariners would still have one of the game’s best relievers, Andres Munoz, closing out games. Santos would headline a setup corps also featuring Gabe Speier, Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo — all of whom posted solid numbers in 2023 but have minimal big league track records.
There’s also still at least one notable reliever in free agency (Ryne Stanek), and the Mariners have had perhaps more success than any team in MLB at converting unheralded waiver pickups and minor league signees into impact relievers in recent years. Flamethrower Carlos Vargas, acquired in the Eugenio Suarez trade, is one power-armed candidate for such a breakout in Seattle. None of that takes away from the magnitude of a notable Brash injury, and at this stage of the offseason, the options to make a move to counteract such a significant loss are limited.
Matt Brash wasn’t in the Austin Nola trade!
the article doesn’t say that
It was preemptive. Someone is inevitably going to say he was.
Different heist trade!
Brash was the PTBNL in the Taylor Williams trade, Harambe. Painful memories…
I’m aware
It was in that flurry of trades where DiPotto stole Prellers lunch, kicked him in the shin, and walked away with his girlfriend.
Nobody from those trades is still on the Padres or in most cases in the majors. The Mariners still have Munoz, Brash, and France (an SDSU product).
RIP Harambe
“It was in that flurry of trades”…Yeah, Dipoto may have took his lunch money in that trade, but A.J Prellar is the 2-time defending champion of “winning the off-season”. Try to top that.
It would appear the Dodgers have taken your challenge to heart, mlb fan.
(first) Soto trade still worse
The “justifiable” take on the first Soto trade is and was 40 Man spots for everyone. I, for one, was OK with obtaining Soto when we did.
The first Soto trade will go down in the same category as Ruth for $ or Brock for Broglio.
And you can’t use the 40-man roster excuse when Preller just hands out roster spots to prospects that don’t need them. Like Jackson Wolf.
That’s hyperbole, Harambe. Losing Gore was not fun, but would it really have been fair to CJ to make him a part-time back-up INFielder? Nobody wanted it this way, but now we see Mason Thompson on the shelf. Until Wood shows something, then the jury is still out on the peripheral pieces included in the first Soto swap. Just curious, what’s your opinion of the second Soto trade? Gotta run, leave a line brah!
Keeping CJ would have eliminated the need to sign Bogaerts and would have allowed us to sell high on Kim.
Mason Thompson wasn’t in that trade. Not relevant.
It’s possible one or two of those pitcher prospects stick in the Padres rotation and the Yankees have to win the 2024 WS for that trade to be worth it for them even if all the dudes they gave up completely flop in SD but we could have gotten them without giving up Abrams, Gore and Wood.
Keeping CJ would have also eliminated the depression I’m going to feel this year as he becomes Ricky Henderson. Also, with wrist finally healed, have you checked out how well Hassell Jr is hitting this spring?
Well, I’m of the opinion that hindsight shows us that Saint Seidler was always going to sign X. I guess we could debate slapping Abrams into LF, but I think AJ kept Merrill for a reason. He’s better. Just my take, big H.
You passed the Mason test lol!
I don’t understand your Wolf issue. You have to be on the 40 “before” the 26 and he was being called up.
I’m pretty sure it was you and I talking at the time of the Nat’s Soto trade and I told you I was going to miss Cole and Wood the most. That still might be true, but all prospects are suspects until proven otherwise. We haven’t seen anything yet, so equating the swap with some dubious other ones seems quite the Ruthian take. You might be right, but we still don’t know. Not even close. And Brew- I must have done something but I can’t respond to your post here. Bobby 3 Sticks looks a lot better after his hamate stuff! His swing has a bit of quickness back and it’s nice to see. The only pushback I might proffer- he’s been getting REALLY FAT pitches to hit and, to his credit, he has hit them well. Standing trip-dog and an oppo-taco were some recent highlights. Cheers fellas
@Gwynning…
“I guess we could debate slapping Abrams into LF, but I think AJ kept Merrill for a reason. He’s better.”
You don’t know that. CJ already has a 3+ WAR MLB season under his belt. Merrill does not. They could have made room for both of those dudes anyway.
“I don’t understand your Wolf issue. You have to be on the 40 ‘before’ the 26 and he was being called up.”
Wolf made 1 appearance before the trade. That 1 appearance was not worth sabotaging his trade value by putting him on the 40 before they had to. It’s not the only time Preller has done that either.
“… but all prospects are suspects until proven otherwise.”
The same is true of Vasquez, Brito and Thorpe.
“Bobby 3 Sticks looks a lot better after his hamate stuff! His swing has a bit of quickness back and it’s nice to see.”
We already lost the trade even if Bobby Barrels busts. If he can return to form that’s just the icing on the cake.
I told you that’s my take, and yours is almost polar opposite… as usual. That’s fine Harambe, good day! Go Pads
is that a preemptive response to Gwynning? I don’t see his original post
it says “8 comments are hidden because you muted the comment authors” Yet I’ve never muted any one ever, never, so I don’t get this. And the last person I’d mute is Gwynning!
LH- be a pal and tell Brewski I think he blocked me, I thought I accidentally did. That freakin’ macho borracho lol
@Gwynning. Sorry dude I muted you accidently but I fixed that. RE 1st Soto trade. I was cautiously okay with it at the time but then they traded Soto after only 200 games played instead of the 365 I was hoping for, and then I became not okay with it. But all things considered (Seidler’s health, etc…), I understand why the 2nd trade happened given the original plan for the 1st trade didn’t work out. Still, terrible optics. And only to get worse when those youngsters in DC start to emerge.
big fingers trying to use little wifee’s iphone, it’s not a natural human motion. Humans will eventually abide to technos and evolve pencil thin fingers no doubt already happening. Anyway,
You’ve been unmuted
No way to compare CJ to Merrill at this point. Abrams might be an AS this year though if he keeps on the trajectory. I’m high on Merrill but it will likely take him a year or three to grow to where he’s going to go which I hope is something like .285/23 HR/.830 OPS.
I’m not claiming to be right, just trying to translate what I think AJ thinks. You can always disagree… or just mute me, Brewski! =P
There is no right, nor wrong, that’s the beauty of it. Wyatt Earp or Joey Votto or Oppenheimer said that using their best Sam Elliott voice
First Soto trade is below the Kemp and Myers trades. That’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it.
Its about time the M’s had a trade like that. The previous M’s FO’s have had some absolute stinkers. Take yer pick- most ppl will bring up the Adam Jones trade but there are worst imo: 1) Ramon Santiago (who hit .170 for SEA) for 3 time All-Star Carlos Guillen 2) Big Papi David Ortiz for Dave Hollins or 3) Derek Lowe AND Jason Varitek for Heathcliff Slocumb!!
That’s pretty sad record but it’s also a long long long time ago; M’s haven’t lost too many deals of late, not like those…
Gut punch
Sounds kind of brash
I am concerned about the splits against lefties. They are atrocious. I like the arm. I will agree the underlying numbers implied he was likely to get better and he did but they don’t necessarily (and here is my constant complaint) mean that he wasn’t actually bad when he was, just that there were reasons to believe he would improve. I will say that given that he wasn’t giving up homers those stats may have genuinely been entirely fluke, as is often the case with relievers. I don’t care to look up the contact quality, and perhaps it was merely a few games that dragged him down.
The guy is one of the NASTIEST RPers in the game. For 2 years Brash ‘s metrics have been heavily influenced by the worst luck. Between errors, bloopers and bleeders falling or deflected bunts from checked swings – if it weren’t for had luck he’d have none at all.
If you’ve actually watched Brash pitch in more than one or two highlight clips you’d be about the only person on the planet who watches him and comes away worried about his future. Just google what MLB players, industry execs and Rival GMs say about him. Oh and while you’re there maybe look at how M Brash fared against switch hitting Jose Ramirez when he faced him from the Left side of the plate.
He has arguably the best slider in baseball. The numbers and experts back that up.
Well bringing up one hitter is meaningless. I’m sure there’s lots of published info about what execs say about him. I know he’s good. It’s obvious. But there is no denying a 1.7 whip against lefties over a full season. I’m also not suggesting the metrics were ever wrong, only like to bring up logical inconsistencies when the opportunity arises. It may not be relevant in this case, as I said. But when they say the same thing every article it makes me feel like mentioning it.
If there were an explanation for his struggles at times it is entirely possible it’s because he struggles against lefties but dominates righties. At the least it’s not irrelevant to mention. It’s as good of an explanation as 2 years of bad luck is, tho perhaps that’s true.
The M’s are my favorite team, of course I’m going to be biased. But I don’t mind saying that I’ve watched every single one of Matt Brash’s outings. One important fact about Brash’s WHIP v LH’s – he improved on that and many other metrics in his first full season as a RP from 2022-23.
His occasional lack of command gets him into trouble but again, he’s cleaned that up from 2022. His BB/9, HR/FB% and HR/9 all had big drops from his 2022 season. The MLB HR/FB avg is 6.7% MB went from a gaudy 9.1% in 2022 to 5.3% in 2023. Keep in mind- Brash is just 25 yrs old.
I’d be concerned if his numbers were getting worse.
Re: that bad luck thing- its real. He had a whopping .380 BABIP in 2023. Ya know what else is real? His FIP in 2023 he had a 2.26 FIP – another indication that Brash was unlucky.
The only concern I have about Brash is can that 6’ 1” 175 lb frame handle the amount of torque that comes from repeatedly spinning his Knuckle Curve at max level?
Again I don’t disagree yet of course he would have a low FIP because he strikes everyone out and doesn’t give up many home-runs. Frankly I believe FIP is perhaps the most bias stat on this planet. But, again, I don’t disagree with anything really that you stated. (The following is not about him)-Main reason why FIP is dumb-The idea that BABIP is entirely out of the pitchers control is dumb. Sure, it fluctuates and it can be fluky but there are MANY times that it merely indicates poor pitching which can be supported by avg exit velo. The whole problem is they try to make one stat the go to stat when a much better analysis can be done with multiple stats that are less often used. It leads to armchair experts who think they can merely go to FIP to learn when that’s sort of just a way to filter down the saber metrics to bite size pieces for the masses. You can’t take a guys hits (besides homers) and adjust them to league average BABIP. That’s ludacris.
I agree with your suggestion there Rishi- many, if not all, of the advanced metrics are flawed. Or at the very least imperfect. They can paint a pretty good picture tho.
I only brought those metrics to the discussion because you were not having my “bad luck” statement.
The truth is luck is a huge part of the game. Advanced metrics can’t translate or describe luck accurately. Bad or good, luck plays a small part of every baseball game. Some Pitchers can have more bad luck than others. Matt Brash had plenty of it early on in the 2023 season but nowhere near the misfortune of Rafael Montero over his time in SEA!! He was Snakebit!!
I actually do buy the bad luck statement. I didn’t mean to make it seem otherwise. I just was looking for any other possible explanations too. I certainly haven’t seen him pitch like you have. I used to watch nearly every Braves game and saw many instances of relievers with consistently bad luck over a long stretch.
You wouldn’t have seen that in 1998!! That Braves Rotation kept RPers off the mound haha. That was one bored Bullpen! I think that entire Starting Five had a collective sub 3:00 ERA that year.
Bad day to be a former Padres pitching prospect.
Hopefully “everybody” can recover properly and quickly. Hate to hear this stuff regardless of current uni.
A really good reliever for the M’s just went down. Oof!
Ouch!
No mention of Jackson Kowar in this article? Pretty sure he’s better than Trent Thornton…
No but if you check out the original Seattle Times article by Divish – he certainly does. In that article, Divish’s Roster Projections, he has Kowar and Vargas filling the (now) 2 open BP spots.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Ty Buttrey takes that spot from Kowar. He was nasty in his time with LAA – he has legitimate proven Big League success. Its early going but he (TB) looked really good in his inning of work yesterday.
Re: a lengthy Brash injury- Thank goodness the M’s have one of THE best Rotations in MLB. I’m biased but I think its the best in the AL.
clearly had an inkling on this, this the move for Santos. that being said, him having some issues and Munoz history doesn’t look great for a team hoping to compete for a playoff spot.
The Santos move was to shorten the game to six innings, like all smart GM’s try to do.
And when I mentioned them signing stanek I was told they don’t need him and brash won’t be out long. Well it seems like getting stanek should definitely be something the mariners start thinking about.
Stinky Stanek to the rescue
Would be weird, but welcome
Brash throws high 90’s with tons of sliders and now has a sore elbow. Not surprised
“Brash throws high”…78 appearances will do that to you. That’s a bit much, unless you want sored armed relievers.
AHHHH HORSE SPIT
Is this complete speculation but Brash and front office didnt give specifics on injury. Divish – if they dont tell me specifics he must be likely down for the year
It isn’t complete speculation. Divish explicitly says “Industry sources” in his article. The only people who have info on the medicals would be the medical staff who can’t talk about this stuff, Mariners staffers who know the medicals but can’t speak on the record, Brash, Brash’s family, and Brash’s agent. That’s the possible set of people who could have spoken with Divish and would have been credible enough for him to report on it.
Servais hasn’t wanted to talk about it this week, so all we know now is that Brash could potentially miss the season with some sort of arm problem. Either way I’d sign Stanek now rather than later.
Ahhh Divish……. Doom or bust writer. Hopefully Brash isn’t out too long, Stanek should be an easy signing. Speculation on what he wants per year.
Big Dumper in a recent interview said that Vargas was one of the most impressive pitchers in camp so far. Hopefully they can get his walks down and he can make the big league rosters.
Maybe Brash can use this downtime to shorten his stride. Looking at this picture makes my arm hurt.
In the words or Eric Cartman “$%#!, %%#&ity, $%@! , #@!*”
No updates on leap day allowed, apparently.
So no word on what’s raising the alarms at the Mariners camp? Hopefully it’s not the elbow or the shoulder…
Brash, Urias, maybe Santos… The M’s don’t have enough depth to deal with much more. Just a lot of, “Well, if he has a career year…”
Go get John McMillon from the Royals as a setup guy and then use Santos in a traditional closer role.
They would be able to get him cheap because he’s had injuries off and on, but he looked really good when the Royals called him up. He fits in well with the guys the M’s usually bring in.
Best of lucky to you Matty! You’re awesome