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Matt Brash

Mariners Reinstate Matt Brash From Injured List

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The Mariners announced that right-hander Matt Brash has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list. He underwent UCL surgery last year and will be making his first major league appearance since the 2023 season whenever he gets into a game. Right-hander Troy Taylor was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma as the corresponding move.

It’s a little bit of an early birthday present for Brash, who will turn 27 on May 12th. Prior to his recent absence, he was in the process of establishing himself as a potent bullpen weapon for the Mariners. Coming into 2022, the M’s were still using him as a starter. He made his major league debut with five starts early that year but posted a 7.65 earned run average. They optioned him down to the minors and started converting him to relief.

Since then, the results have been excellent. He was recalled in July and tossed 30 2/3 innings out of the bullpen the rest of the way. In that time, he had a 2.35 ERA, 33.9% strikeout rate and 12.6% walk rate. He added 3 1/3 scoreless innings in the postseason. In 2023, his first full season as a reliever, he logged 70 2/3 innings with a 3.06 ERA, 34.7% strikeout rate and much-improved 9.4% walk rate.

Since getting called up in July of 2022, he has a 2.84 ERA over 101 1/3 innings with a 34.5% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. He became a part of the club’s high-leverage group, earning four saves and 33 holds in that time.

Unfortunately, that’s been on pause for over a year. He experienced some arm troubles early in 2024 and eventually went under the knife in May. Now that he’s back, it’ll be a nice boost for the Seattle bullpen. Jackson Kowar is still recovering from his own UCL surgery. Gregory Santos recently underwent knee surgery and was quickly transferred to the 60-day IL, meaning he won’t be coming back anytime soon.

The club’s relievers have a collective 3.69 ERA this year, which puts them just outside the top ten. However, their 18.9% strikeout rate is actually 28th in the league, ahead of just the Cardinals and Marlins. Assuming Brash gets back to his previous strikeout ways, he’ll give them a nice bump in that department. Andrés Muñoz is the Seattle closer but Brash should jump in and take one of the prime setup roles.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, most clubs have a report date of February 12th or 13th. The Cubs and Dodgers are a bit earlier than most, on the 9th and 11th, respectively. That’s due to the fact that those clubs are heading to Tokyo, with exhibition games in mid-March, followed by regular season games against each other on March 18th and 19th. All the other teams have Opening Day scheduled for March 27th.

It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.

There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Randal Grichuk, Kenley Jansen, Harrison Bader, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and many more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon.

Angels: Robert Stephenson

Stephenson underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery with internal brace in late April. Given the 14-plus months required to recovery from such a procedure, he’s not likely to be ready in the early parts of the 2025 season.

Astros: Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Bennett Sousa

Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is targeting a return in the second half of 2025. France is recovering from shoulder surgery and hoping to return in July. Sousa’s timeline is less clear but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in April. Other possibilities include Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who are expected to start the season on the IL but returning in April or May still seems possible.

Athletics: Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk

Medina underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Waldichuk in May. Medina might miss the entire season while Waldichuk is likely to miss a few months at least.

Blue Jays: Angel Bastardo, Alek Manoah

The Jays grabbed Bastardo from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft in December, even though he had Tommy John surgery in June. Manoah also had Tommy John around that time and is hoping to be back by August.

Braves: Joe Jiménez

Jimenez had knee surgery in November with a timeline of eight to twelve months, so he might miss the entire season. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are also possibilities, though those will be more borderline. Strider had internal brace surgery in April, so returning in May is somewhat possible. Acuña is recovering from a torn ACL last year and it’s possible he’ll miss the first month or so of the season. Given how important both of those players are, Atlanta probably won’t put them on the 60-day IL unless it’s 100% certain that they can’t come back in the first 60 days of the season.

Brewers: Robert Gasser

Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will be looking at a late 2025 return even in a best-case scenario.

Diamondbacks: Kyle Nelson

Nelson’s timeline is unclear, but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May and missed the remainder of the 2024 season.

Dodgers: Gavin Stone, Brusdar Graterol, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan

Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October that will cause him to miss the entire year. Graterol also underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back until the second half of 2025. Each of Ryan, Hurt and Sheehan required Tommy John surgery in 2024: Ryan in August, Hurt in July and Sheehan in May.

Guardians: Sam Hentges, David Fry, Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan

Hentges required shoulder surgery in September, with an expected recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November with a more fluid timeline. He won’t be able to throw at all in 2025 but could be cleared for designated hitter action six to eight months from that surgery. Bieber is perhaps a borderline case, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Given his importance, the Guards may not transfer him to the 60-day IL until it’s assured that he won’t be back in the first 60 days of the season. Stephan underwent Tommy John surgery in March and perhaps has a chance to avoid the 60-day IL, depending on his progression.

Mariners: Matt Brash, Jackson Kowar

Brash underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Given the typical 14-month recovery timeline from that procedure, he would be looking at a midsummer return. However, it was reported in November that he’s ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. That’s an optimistic timeline but the Mariners will probably hold off moving him to the 60-day IL until the door is closed to an early return. Kowar underwent Tommy John in March, so an early return in 2025 is possible for him, depending on how his recovery is going.

Marlins: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez

Garrett just underwent UCL surgery last month and is going to miss the entire 2025 season. Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will miss at least part of the beginning of the 2025 campaign.

Mets: Christian Scott

Scott required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

Nationals: Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson

Gray required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in July, meaning he’ll miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 season. Thompson required Tommy John surgery in March, so he has a better chance to make an early-season return if his recovery is going well.

Orioles: Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells

Bradish and Wells each required UCL surgery in June, so they’re both slated to miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

Padres: Joe Musgrove

Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October and will therefore miss the entire 2025 season. However, the Padres only have 36 guys on their 40-man roster at the moment, so they’ll need to fill those spots before moving Musgrove to the 60-day IL.

Pirates: Dauri Moreta

Moreta required UCL surgery in March, so an early-season return is possible if his rehab is going well, though he could end up on the 60-day if the club goes easy with his ramp-up or he suffers any kind of setback.

Rangers: Josh Sborz

Sborz underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss the first two to three months of the upcoming season.

Rays: Nate Lavender, Ha-Seong Kim

The Rays took Lavender from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, even though he had Tommy John in May and will miss the start of the season. Kim’s status is more up in the air after he had shoulder surgery in October. Various reports have suggested he could return anywhere from April to July. The Rays made a sizable investment in Kim, their largest ever for a position player, so they probably won’t shelve him until they get more clarity on his status.

Red Sox: Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy

Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.

Reds: Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson

Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery in October and Williamson in September, so both are likely slated to miss the entire 2025 season.

Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long

Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April. On top of that, he underwent left hip labral repair surgery in July, with the club hoping to address both issues at the same time. It seems likely that he’ll miss some of the early 2025 schedule, but his IL placement will depend on how he’s been progressing.

White Sox: Jesse Scholtens

Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery in early March. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend on how he’s progressed since then and when the White Sox expect him back.

Yankees: Jonathan Loáisiga

Loáisiga underwent internal brace surgery in April, so he could potentially be back on the mound early in the 2025 season. It was reported in December that the Yankees are expecting him to be in the bullpen by late April or early May, so he’ll only end up on the 60-day IL if he suffers a bit of a setback.

Quick Hits: Snell, Orioles, Brash, Cubs

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The Orioles had “legitimate interest” in southpaw Blake Snell before he landed with the Dodgers on a five-year deal that became official earlier today, per a report from Roch Kubatko of MASN. Kubatko notes, however, that it’s unclear how advanced talks between Baltimore and Snell’s camp became before he settled on Los Angeles. Previous reporting indicated that the Orioles could get involved in the Snell sweepstakes, but Kubatko’s report is the first confirming Baltimore’s interest.

As the club looks to either reunite with right-hander Corbin Burnes or replace his production at the top of their rotation following his departure for free agency earlier this month, it’s hardly a surprise to hear that the club took a hard look at Snell while he was available. The two-time Cy Young award winner has been even better than Burnes from a run prevention perspective over the past three years, with a 2.82 ERA and 2.98 FIP in 412 innings. Burnes, meanwhile, lags behind in rate stats with a 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP, but his 590 innings of work dwarf Snell in terms of volume. That volume figures to be particularly attractive to an Orioles club that has serious health question marks surrounding a number of its starters, including Kyle Bradish as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery that figures to keep him out of action for at least the first half of 2025.

While Burnes seems likely to remain the Orioles’s top choice in free agency this winter, they’ve also been connected to southpaws Max Fried and Garrett Crochet in free agency and via trade respectively. It seems as though they’re also looking at mid-rotation arms as well, however, as they were recently linked to veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi projects to be much less expensive than Burnes and Fried in free agency this winter, but that affordability comes with a much less impactful track record as the 34-year-old has a solid but unremarkable 3.75 ERA and 3.63 FIP across the past five seasons. The Orioles are quite familiar with Eovaldi, of course, as he spent seven seasons in the AL East with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox from 2015 to 2022.

More tidbits from around the baseball world…

  • Mariners fans got an encouraging update on the status of right-hander Matt Brash recently, as Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported earlier this week that the right-hander is ahead of schedule as he rehabs from his early May Tommy John surgery. Per Jude, the Mariners are “optimistic” that he could return to the club’s bullpen by the end of April this coming season, just under a year after he first went under the knife. Brash’s return would surely be a major boost for Seattle, as he established himself as one of the most exciting young arms in the club’s arsenal during a breakout 2023 campaign. After being moved to the bullpen partway through the 2022 season, Brash’s first full campaign as a reliever saw him lead the majors with 78 appearances while posting an excellent 3.06 ERA with an even better 2.26 FIP. He struck out an eye-popping 34.7% of batters faced that year, and if he can post numbers anything like that in 2025 he’ll be a phenomenal complement to closer Andres Munoz at the back of the Mariners bullpen next year.
  • The Cubs have yet to announce their finalized coaching staff for the 2025 season, but Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported earlier this week that at least one more vacancy has been filled. After assistant pitching coach Daniel Moskos departed the organization to become the Marlins’ pitching coach, the club is promoting internally to replace Moskos by hiring Casey Jacobson. Jacobson has been in the Cubs organization since October 2019 and has spent the past two years as the senior coordinator of pitching development for the club in the minor leagues. Now, he’ll get the opportunity to work on a big league coaching staff for the first time in his career with a number of young arms such as Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and Porter Hodge expected to play roles for Chicago next year.

Matt Brash Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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Mariners right-hander Matt Brash underwent Tommy John surgery on Wednesday, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times on X, relaying word from general manager Justin Hollander. The righty had his ligament repaired and a brace installed, with the club expecting a return in June of next year, per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com on X.

It’s obviously an unfortunate blow for both the Mariners and Brash, as the righty had been so impressive over the past two years. He was a highly-touted starting prospect while climbing through the minors, but a lack of control seemed to be pushing him towards a relief role, which is how things have played out in the majors thus far.

He debuted in 2022 with five starts but had a 7.65 earned run average in those, walking 17.9% of batters faced. He was sent back down to the minors and moved to a bullpen role. He re-emerged with the big league club in July and posted a 2.35 ERA in 30 2/3 innings the rest of the way. His 12.6% walk rate was still on the high side but he was able to punch out 33.9% of opponents.

2023 saw him continue to establish himself as a bonafide big league reliever and even move into a leverage role for the Mariners. He put up a 3.06 ERA last year across 78 appearances. He dropped his walk rate to 9.4% while still getting punchouts 34.7% of the time. He recorded four saves and 24 holds in the process.

Here in 2024, it’s been mostly ominous. It was reported at the end of February that Brash was potentially looking at a lengthy absence, but he was cleared to resume throwing just a few days later. The bad news returned at the end of April when his progress was shut down. He was transferred to the 60-day injured list earlier this week and now the worries of a lengthy absence have come to fruition.

He will now spend the rest of this year and a chunk of 2025 rehabbing from the surgery, forcing the club to proceed without him. Andrés Muñoz is in the closer’s role while pitchers like Ryne Stanek and Gabe Speier lead the setup crew.

Brash came into 2024 with one year and 121 days of service time. That will give him a borderline chance at qualifying for arbitration this winter as a Super Two player. Looking at recent history, that amount of service would have been sufficient three times since 2009, though all three of those occured in the five most recent seasons.

Mariners Select Kirby Snead

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The Mariners announced a series of roster moves today, selecting the contract of left-hander Kirby Snead and reinstated right-hander Eduard Bazardo from the injured list. In corresponding moves, left-hander Tayler Saucedo was placed on the 15-day IL due to right knee hyperextension and right-hander Emerson Hancock was optioned to Triple-A Tacoma. To open a 40-man spot for Snead, righty Matt Brash was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Snead, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in the winter. He reported to Triple-A and has made 12 appearances at that level so far this year with a 2.92 earned run average. That’s supported by a 27.7% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate and a huge 63.3% ground ball rate.

The southpaw has had some encouraging results in the minors before, but has struggled in the majors. He currently has a career ERA of 5.20 in the big leagues, tossing 64 innings over the previous three seasons between the Blue Jays and Athletics. He was outrighted by Oakland in October, which led to his deal with the Mariners.

With Saucedo going on the IL, Snead will step in as the club’s second lefty reliever alongside Gabe Speier. Snead is out of options and can’t be easily sent back down to the minors down the line. However, he has less than two years of service time and could therefore be cheaply retained into the future if he holds onto his roster spot all year.

Hancock, 25 this month, came into the year as the club’s sixth starter behind Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. But Woo began the year on the injured list due to right medial elbow inflammation, which opened a rotation spot for Hancock.

Through seven starts, Hancock has a 5.24 ERA with a tepid 15.4% strikeout rate. Woo has been on a rehab assignment of late, having already made three starts with the most recent one being a five-inning outing on Saturday. Hancock’s option appears to pave the way for Woo to be reinstated at some point in the near future.

As for Brash, he’s been on the 15-day IL all year due to right elbow inflammation. This transfer is backdated to his initial IL placement, meaning he can’t be reinstated until late May. That doesn’t seem to be a possibility anyway, as he was shut down at the end of April and there haven’t been any substantive updates on his condition since then.

Mariners “Indefinitely” Shut Down Matt Brash’s Rehab

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Mariners right-hander Matt Brash has been shut down indefinitely from his rehab process, GM Justin Hollander told reporters this evening (including Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times). The righty had thrown yesterday ahead of a rehab assignment that was expected to begin this weekend, though now he’ll visit Dr. Keith Meister to determine next steps.

Brash, 26 next month, was shut down due to elbow inflammation early in Spring Training amid concerns that he may miss the entire 2024 season. Following his diagnosis with elbow inflammation, however, Brash was cleared to resume throwing in early March and has been rehabbing the injury ever since. Per Hollander, that injury has taken a turn for the worse in recent days as he’s begun to feel “tightness” in the aftermath of bullpen sessions that has begun to last longer after each throwing session.

The ominous update is a potentially brutal blow for the Seattle bullpen, which has been without Brash and fellow set-up man Gregory Santos all season. Brash made his debut with the Mariners as a starter back in 2022 but struggled in the role and was quickly moved to the bullpen, where he’s been nothing short of dominant ever since. Across 112 relief innings in his career, the flamethrower has posted a sterling 2.84 ERA with an even better 2.18 FIP eye-popping 34.5% strikeout rate in 101 1/3 innings of work. That’s good for the ninth-highest strikeout rate and second-lowest FIP of any reliever with at least 80 innings of work over the past two seasons.

Given Brash’s utter dominance out of the bullpen throughout his career, he was all but certain to act as the primary set-up man to closer Andres Munoz this season, forming perhaps the strongest one-two punch of relievers in the majors. Those plans will have to be put on hold for an uncertain amount of time, however, with Brash expected to meet with Meister for the second time this season in the coming days. Seattle has relied on Ryne Stanek and Gabe Speier to set up for Munoz in the absence of Brash and Santos.

While elbow issues of any kind bring to mind the possibility of Tommy John surgery for many fans, there’s been no indication of damage to Brash’s UCL to this point, however and it won’t be clear exactly what the prognosis is for Brash and what his timetable for return could look like until he meets with Meister. With all that said, it seems fair to expect the Mariners to be without their top set-up man for quite some time given the right-hander’s difficulties bouncing back between throwing sessions nearly two months after being cleared to resume a throwing program.

If there’s any silver lining for Mariners fans, it’s that the club’s bullpen has been performing just fine even without Brash in the mix. Seattle relievers rank first in the majors with a 2.40 ERA this season while they rank eighth with a 24.9% strikeout rate and ninth with a 3.68 FIP. That strong performance has involved almost universally solid numbers from the club’s relief corps: among the 11 players the club has used out of the bullpen so far this season, only right-hander Collin Snider and infielder Josh Rojas (the latter of whom pitched in a pair of blowout games early in the season) have posted an ERA above 3.09 entering play today. If the club’s relief corps can remain even close to that effective in the coming months, it’s possible the Mariners won’t miss Brash as much as it might seem on the surface even in the event of an extended absence.

AL West Notes: Verlander, García, Santos, Brash, Sasaki

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A pair of Astros starting pitchers are making progress on their way back from injuries. Justin Verlander spoke to reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) after a successful batting practice session against live hitters on Monday. He believes his next step will be a minor league rehab assignment. Manager Joe Espada provided a similar update, telling Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that his ace “should be ready to go out on a rehab assignment” as long as he “comes back tomorrow feeling well.” Espada suggested Verlander would need more than one rehab appearance before he can return to the Astros, but the skipper did not provide an exact timeline for the three-time Cy Young winner’s return. Verlander has recovered from the shoulder injury that kept him on the sidelines this spring. Still, he needs more time to build up his arm strength before pitching in an MLB game.

Meanwhile, Luis García has begun to throw off a mound, and Espada says the righty is “ahead of schedule” in his recovery from a UCL injury (per Rome). The 27-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery last May. While he still has plenty of work to put in before he can return to the majors, the Astros are hopeful he can rejoin the rotation by July if all goes well (per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Over 64 games (62 starts) from 2021-23, García pitched to a 3.63 ERA and 3.86 SIERA.

More news from around the AL West…

  • The Mariners received some good news today when reliever Gregory Santos’ MRI came back clean (per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). He had been dealing with a flareup of inflammation in the strained lat that kept him out for all of spring training. According to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, Santos needed the MRI to come back clean in order to resume his throwing program; the hard-throwing right-hander has now begun “light baseball activities” (per Jude). The Mariners have not yet provided a timeline for his return, but they are surely hoping to get him back sooner rather than later. Santos pitched to a 3.39 ERA and 3.32 SIERA in 60 games for the White Sox last season.
  • In other Mariners bullpen news, Matt Brash is making progress as he recovers from right elbow inflammation. While Mariners GM Justin Hollander would not provide an exact timeline for any of his injured arms, he suggested that Brash is the furthest along in his rehab (per Jude). Like Santos, Brash is a hard-throwing right-hander coming off a breakout year. In 78 games last season, he posted a 3.06 ERA and 2.86 SIERA, winning nine games and collecting 24 holds.
  • Eight teams recently sent representatives to watch NPB ace Roki Sasaki pitch in Japan. The Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets, and Yankees were previously reported to be four of those clubs, and now Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reveals that a scout from the Rangers was also in attendance. That leaves three remaining mystery teams present at Sasaki’s latest starts for the Chiba Lotte Marines.

Matt Brash Cleared To Resume Throwing Next Week

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The Mariners informed reporters today, including Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, that right-hander Matt Brash has medial elbow inflammation and can start playing catch on Tuesday. He likely won’t be ready for Opening Day but it’s still a positive development since reporting from earlier this week indicated that missing the entire season was a possibility.

Brash was shut down from throwing a week ago, downplaying the severity of his issues by saying he was just “banged up” and “didn’t feel great” after throwing a bullpen. As mentioned, subsequent reporting from a couple of days ago suggested Brash was at risk of missing significant time, perhaps even all of 2024.

That makes today’s news a welcome development for the Mariners, though the concern will likely linger until he gets back on the mound. In the short term, he’ll resume his program shortly and try to build up for game readiness.

If that all goes well, it will be a great relief for the Seattle bullpen. Brash posted a 3.06 ERA last year but may have deserved even better. He struck out a huge 34.7% of batters faced while also posting an above-average 46.1% ground ball rate. His 9.7% walk rate was a tad high but not disastrously so, with relievers around the league averaging a 9.5% clip last year. Some extra runs may have scored thanks to a .380 batting average on balls in play and 77.2% strand rate, which is why his 2.26 FIP and 2.86 SIERA were even more bullish on his performance. He did all that while racking up four saves and 24 holds.

The club figures to have Andrés Muñoz in the closer’s role with Brash and Gregory Santos likely to be in setup jobs. There were recent injury concerns about both, as Santos had some discomfort near his teres major muscle. But Santos has already begun playing catch and general manager Justin Hollander suggested today that things are moving in a positive direction, per Divish. If things continue to trend well for Santos and Brash, it will be a nice development for the club, especially considering how worrisome things looked not too long ago.

Matt Brash Could Face Lengthy Absence

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Feb. 29: The Mariners are hoping to have a formal update on Brash’s status tomorrow, manager Scott Servais said Thursday (X link via Divish).

Feb.  28: Mariners setup men Matt Brash and Gregory Santos were both shut down last week due to arm troubles, and while it appears there’s good news on one, the outlook on the other is ominous. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that Santos played catch yesterday and is beginning a throwing progression, but Brash is potentially facing an “extensive” absence. There’s some concern that Brash’s entire 2024 season may be in jeopardy, per Divish.

An absence of even moderate length for Brash would be a critical blow for the Mariners, who acquired the hard-throwing righty in a heist of a trade with the Padres and have since watched him blossom into a top prospect and potentially elite reliever. Brash’s 3.06 ERA in 70 2/3 innings last season is an impressive mark on its own, but that number doesn’t appropriately highlight some off-the-charts secondary metrics and a sensational four-month finish to close out the 2023 season.

Even as Brash posted a pedestrian 4.28 ERA through the season’s first two months, he was striking out a staggering 39.8% of his opponents against a respectable 8.9% walk rate. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (1.92) and SIERA (2.34) were far, far more bullish on his work than his more rudimentary ERA.

Those numbers indeed proved a portent for a breakout. From Memorial Day weekend through season’s end, Brash turned in a sensational 2.36 ERA. His strikeout rate in that time clocked in at 32.4% against a 9.7% walk rate. Brash averaged a blistering 98.2 mph on his heater, generated swinging strikes at a hefty 15.4% clip and induced chases off the plate at a 33.6% rate — all while keeping the ball on the ground at a solid 44.4% clip. He finished the season with four saves and another 24 holds. Skeptics may want to see him sustain that over a full season or two, but that overpowering stretch had all the characteristics of one of MLB’s best relievers.

Unfortunately, it seems Brash might not get the opportunity to prove he can sustain that breakout for some time. Neither the team nor the player himself has provided any specifics as to the nature of the arm injury with which he’s dealing. Brash downplayed the issue last week, telling Divish and others that he’s simply “banged up,” while GM Justin Hollander merely stated that the hope was for Brash to return to a throwing program sooner than later. The lack of any real detail on the injury seemed foreboding at the time.

If the 25-year-old Brash is indeed going to be sidelined for a substantial portion — or, far worse, the entirety — of the 2024 campaign, a strong Mariners bullpen will take an unequivocal hit. Seattle relievers were fourth in the Majors with a 3.48 ERA last season and led the big leagues with a 3.64 SIERA. Brash played a major part, as did the since-traded Justin Topa, who went to the Twins as part of the Jorge Polanco deal.

The surprise acquisition of Santos late in the offseason helped to compensate for Topa’s departure, but a major injury for Brash would be difficult to overcome. His production throughout the summer and down the stretch in 2023 simply isn’t the type of performance that can be readily replaced.

The Mariners would still have one of the game’s best relievers, Andres Munoz, closing out games. Santos would headline a setup corps also featuring Gabe Speier, Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo — all of whom posted solid numbers in 2023 but have minimal big league track records.

There’s also still at least one notable reliever in free agency (Ryne Stanek), and the Mariners have had perhaps more success than any team in MLB at converting unheralded waiver pickups and minor league signees into impact relievers in recent years. Flamethrower Carlos Vargas, acquired in the Eugenio Suarez trade, is one power-armed candidate for such a breakout in Seattle. None of that takes away from the magnitude of a notable Brash injury, and at this stage of the offseason, the options to make a move to counteract such a significant loss are limited.

Mariners Notes: Brash, Santos, Urias, Phillips

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The Mariners have shut relievers Matt Brash and Gregory Santos down from throwing for the time being, reports Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Neither the team nor Brash would get into specifics regarding his injury, though Divish notes that the M’s don’t believe it to be a serious issue. Brash simply told Divish that he’s “banged up” and “didn’t feel great” after his most recent bullpen session. GM Justin Hollander added that the organizational hope is for Brash to resume a throwing progression next week. Santos, meanwhile, is dealing with some discomfort near his teres major muscle that popped up during his most recent ’pen session. There’s no specific timetable for his return to throwing.

While the team hasn’t yet conveyed significant concerns on either player, both should be watched with a keen eye. Brash quietly emerged as one of the most dominant setup men in the league last season. His 3.06 ERA in 70 2/3 innings is impressive on its own, but that masks a sensational four-month run to close out the season.

Brash posted strong secondary marks but pedestrian run-prevention numbers in the season’s first two months. But from Memorial Day weekend onward, the righty delivered a 2.36 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate. Brash averaged a blazing 98.2 mph on his heater in 2023, saved four games and picked up another 24 holds. He’s expected to be the primary setup man for closer Andres Munoz and is slated for regular high-leverage work; even an absence of moderate length would be a sizable blow for the M’s.

That’s also true of Santos, whom the Mariners just acquired from the White Sox earlier this month (in a trade sending outfielder Zach DeLoach, righty Prelander Berroa and a Competitive Balance draft pick back to Chicago). The Sox’ acquisition of Santos from the Giants flew under the radar last offseason, but he’d pitched his way into the likely closer’s role on the South Side before being flipped to Seattle. Santos pitched 66 1/3 innings in 2023, posting a sharp 3.39 ERA with a 22.8% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 52.5% grounder rate while averaging 98.8 mph on his fastball. ERA alternatives like FIP (2.65) and SIERA (3.32) generally support his unexpected breakout as an impact reliever.

The team will presumably have updates on both relievers in the days ahead, but they’re critical cogs in manager Scott Servais’ setup corps. The Mariners have a strong bullpen and are generally adept at turning low-profile pickups into successful bullpen arms, but overcoming the loss of both pitchers would be a tall order.

Unfortunately for the Mariners, Brash and Santos aren’t the only ones banged up. Third baseman Luis Urias isn’t throwing for the time being after experiencing some shoulder inflammation while playing winter ball in his native Mexico this offseason (link via MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer). The team believes it’ll be a short-term issue, but there’s still no clear timetable as to when he’ll begin throwing.

Urias, 26, struggled to a dismal .199/.307/.299 slash in 177 plate appearances with the Brewers and Red Sox last year but slashed .244/.340/.426 in 1042 plate appearances with Milwaukee from 2021-22. He’s also a career .276/.353/.442 hitter against lefties. A healthy Urias would be a fine option in the short half of a platoon at either third base or second base, although the acquisition of Polanco at second base paints third base as the obvious place for the Urias/Rojas platoon.

If Urias misses any time or is at all delayed to start the season, Seattle could just stay in-house and give fellow righty-swinger Dylan Moore some platoon work at the hot corner. Moore hasn’t been as good against lefties as Urias, however, and putting him in that role would thin out the team’s bench depth, perhaps paving the way for Sam Haggerty or Samad Taylor to crack the roster. The M’s could also just go with Rojas on an everyday basis at third; he has near-identical splits throughout his career.

Kramer also notes that right-hander Cole Phillips, the 2022 second-rounder acquired from the Braves in the Jarred Kelenic deal, recently underwent his second Tommy John surgery. Phillips also underwent the procedure during his senior year of high school in 2022, just months before the draft. He’d been trending up as a potential first-round pick before blowing out his elbow in ’22 and has yet to throw a pitch in the pros while rehabbing that injury. Unfortunately, his debut will now be delayed even further. Phillips won’t turn 21 until May, so there’s plenty of time for him to get back on track and develop into a contributor for the Mariners, but a pair of Tommy John procedures prior to a pitcher’s 21st birthday is as ominous as it gets for a pitching prospect.

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