Arbitrators ruled in favor of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in his hearing versus the Blue Jays, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (X link). The slugging first baseman will be paid at the $19.9MM rate sought by his camp at PRIME. The team had submitted an $18.05MM filing figure.
Guerrero’s arbitration case was the most significant of any this offseason. Of the players who went to a hearing, he’s in line for easily the highest salary. The $1.85MM gap between his filing figure and the team’s proposed rate was the second-largest of the offseason; there’s a $1.9MM spread between the Rangers’ and Adolis García’s submissions.
This is the third of four trips through the process for the three-time All-Star. Guerrero racked up huge earnings early in the process. That’s partially because he qualified for early arbitration as a Super Two player during the 2021-22 offseason. It’s also a reflection of the monster numbers he posted early in his career, particularly during the ’21 campaign. Guerrero’s MVP runner-up season led to a hefty $7.9MM agreement for 2022. He and the Jays settled on a $14.5MM deal last winter but couldn’t find a mutually agreeable price point this time around.
That nevertheless works out well for Guerrero, who secures a $5.4MM raise relative to last season. While he’s coming off a good year, his production wasn’t what he or the team envisioned from one of the sport’s most talented offensive players. Guerrero hit 26 homers and 30 doubles with a .264/.345/.444 batting line over 682 plate appearances.
Toronto’s projected payroll sits in the $240MM range, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’ll go through the arbitration process with Guerrero once again next offseason. Winning his case this year establishes the platform for next winter’s discussions higher — a player’s previous salaries is a key factor in setting arbitration prices — and he’ll hit free agency in advance of his age-27 season.
Guerrero was the only Toronto player going to a hearing this winter. Players around the league have been victorious in six consecutive hearings after teams won the first two. There are 10 cases still pending.
Vlad is out celebrating now, I’m sitting in the booth next to him at Sizzler!
Of the &^%$ single word “wow” posts.
This one actually deserves one….
Gwynning, did you go surf n turf or ribs?
Shrimp scampi!
Am cool with that choice.
Just checked, prosecco is a good liquid pairing. Given his pay increase, hopefully he bought you a bottle of LaMarca?
@Gwynning
Did you get an autograph or is he not worth it?
You are Old, sir. It’s all about selfies now! Follow my Insta, hit like and subscribe.
Or something.
@Gwynning
I’m following you. I’m your biggest fan. I even donated $1.6B to the gofundme charity you said you needed to help you build a baseball field. How’s that going?
an autograph can be sold later so I would go with that than a selfie –
He should buy you a beer.
Good. Congrats.
Has anyone in mlb history signed long term with a team after going thru an arbitration hearing
Serious question
JT Realmuto comes to mind.
Thanks….JP did sign, but after going to market and ultimately taking less than predicted, so a great example with a caveat
He’s been s11t for the last few years. I wouldn’t lock him up to LT money after his last 2 years.
There have been a few. It’s business at the end of the day so no hurt feelings.
I imagine it depends on how the team acts at the hearing. The Brewers blamed missing the playoffs on Burnes and thoroughly attempted to degrade him as a player. The Athletics are both cheap and brutally lay into a player’s flaws. If the Jays do it respectfully and just try to explain why market value should be lower I don’t think the player gets angry, several player interviews have mentioned they’re fine with the arbitration process as “just business”.
I hope my wife never takes me to some kind of “sex life” arbitration. Just sayin’
The Yankees and Derek Jeter, for one. Obviously both sides survived, but I’m pretty sure the Yankees changed their approach to arbitration after this, trying to settle prior.
Labor rules!!!
Not sure your point. Do you care about worth? Or just take labor side no matter what they want
LS
The arbitration process doesn’t take worth into consideration, why should I?
Also,,Vlad would get way more on the open market, so, seems like he’s worth way more
Probability of a 2025 non-tender?
60%?
Maybe like 3%, unless he like tears his ACL or needs Tommy John surgery. Even if he produces like he did in 2023, he’ll get tendered a contract. A guy with a 117 OPS+, over 25 home runs, and around 2.0 bWAR isn’t getting NTd. This isn’t like Cody Bellinger. Bellinger had an OPS+ below 70 in 2021-2022.
I mean it’s bad optics to NT Vladdy Jr. but his 2023 production wouldn’t be worth the near $30MM AAV he’d get.
@mlb1225
I mean you look at like that but when you could sign a $116 OPS+ on the open market for less. Why would you give $30MM out to this guy?
He’s very young and he’s obviously surpassed that before but Jorge Soler just put up a 128 OPS+ & he’ll probably be getting $30MM over 2 seasons. You’d have to think he’s returning a lot closer to the 2021 Vladdy for $30MM. I think a NT is a reasonable consideration if he repeats ‘23.
Please do not compare Jorge Soler and Vladimir Guerrero jr.
Outside of injury, there is an almost-zero chance at non-tender. Someone would bet on him and trade for him.
I agree Vlad is a fat pig where as Soler isnt
0% might as well risk it for 1 year. Unless there’s an injury, then 100%
0.6% and I’ll take the under.
Yeah. I don’t think the probability is that low but there’s a slight chance. I just posed that as a talking point.
If he repeats 2023–that has to be a thought in your mind. Not worth $30MM for that production & arb will bump him up .
No one is going to NT someone with Vladdy’s potential over a 1 year deal. There is no chance of that happening if he is healthy.
I don’t know. If he were to hit league average this year. Is anyone going to give him $30MM next year? That’ll be roughly his arb price. I could see a world where he repeats ‘23 and the Jays try to find a taker for him. Maybe a team or 2 who would roll the dice at that price. But I’d bet most would be turned off for that level of offense from a guy w/ 0 defensive value.
On a 1 year every team would take the chance. We have all seen players completey bottom out or be injured all year and still get nearly 20 million the next year.
Also he was still well above league average last year even with a down year.
Bellinger got 17 million after 2 years where he combined for less than 1.0 WAR.
Bellinger had a historically bad in 2021 coming off a shoulder surgery. He was bad in ‘22 at the plate but still provided defensive value.
His price tag was far less than $30MM. If Vlad Jr. is a 1 WAR player again—-is that worth $30MM? I promise you that most teams would not think so. $30MM for 1 guy only fits in so many teams budgets. Particularly for a 1 WAR 1B/DH hoping for a bounce back.
I do think that there would probably be a team or 2 that would take the roll & think the Jays didn’t know how to properly develop him. But It’ll be interesting if he replicates ‘23 production or worse. Don’t think it’s a slam dunk.
@jaysfansince92
Also you kinda help the NT theory by bringing up Bellinger.
He was nontendered and then signed for $17MM. Nobody would take him for his projected arb price.
Splitting hairs maybe, but Bellinger wasn’t non-tendered. He was a free agent and was not given the qualifying offer. There’s a good chance that the QO for Vlad would be less than his last year of arb, so there would be a potential pick on the line too.
Bellinger was also coming off back to back seasons where his OPS was .542 and .654. Vlad has never been close to that bad at the plate.
While your post would help my arguement, in the name of a good faith discussion Bellinger was in fact non-tendered by the Dodgers:
mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-non-tendered-dodgers#:….
@jays
Yeah man. Belli was much worse offensively but there’s a potential $9-10MM pay gap between Vladdy’s arb salary and Belli’s. Bellinger also plays premium CF defense. Obviously Vlad offers 0 there.
I believe Vlad’s going to have a solid year and won’t be nontendered. I just believe it’s in the realm of possibility if he’s slightly above league average again.
Vlad is a DH – he is too fat and slow for the outfield – cant play third base and is below aveage at first base –
If the Giants dont sign Soler they might think about Vlad – with the signing of Turner at DH Vlad is at 1b – Jays should bring Chapman back and sign Bellinger this way Vlad could be sent packing – not sure what you could get for him on the trade market
I take it you have not seen recent photos of Vlad. He not only lost a bunch of weight, but is now looking ripped.
Time to show your worth vlady. Hopefully you show some hustle this year instead of standing in the batters box admiring a hit off the wall the ends up being a single. For the jays to have any shot at making the postseason vlady needs to slash .285/350/550 with 35-45 homers with 115-125 rbis…and we all know that aint happening.
Prince Fielder part 2
Not a fair comparison for Fielder. He was actually a star. Vladdy Jr. hasn’t proven anything outside of stat padding while playing in a minor league park in 2020 and 2021
106 HR for Prince by age 24, and 130 for Vlad. People forget how young he is. The idea that he hasn’t proved anything is ridiculous.
Exactly. There will be a ton of teams that will pay this guy. He’s gone.
That comparison looks a lot better when you conveniently leave out that Vlad played 660 games compared to Prince’s 513 in that arbitrary span of time. Prince also didn’t play games in a minor league park for over a year in that time
The minor league park arguement is way overblown in my opinion. The dimensions of the Buffalo stadium for instance are quite similar to the Reds stadium, as well as Yankee stadium or Camden Yards and no one ever puts an asterisk on their numbers.
Also those extra games played were because he was in the majors at an age where Prince was still developing in the minors. 24 Homeruns in around 150 games for a player that young is impressive.
Also the extra games were due to Vlad being in the majors while Prince was still honing his craft in the minors. 24 Homeruns in 147 MLB games at that age is impressive.
Nice! F the blue jgays!
Tacos give me the runs. And so does your comment.
Damn, Jays gotta shed some payroll. Start with IKF.
Very funny if they offloaded IKF after signing him.
is that 19.9 MM Canadien ?
All MLB contracts are USD
In pesos u edot!
Stimpy, u eeediot!
Another $20M shot to hell. Ahahaha!
Suffice it to say that, if I were Vlad Guerrero Jr. today, there would be some type of superb meal happening right about now.
Yusei Kikuchi booked another dinner party for 50+!
Its possible he gets non-tendered if he has another 2023 or worse
No it’s not. He’d have to have a miserable season that would have to end with an injury for him to be non-tendered. Short of that, 29 other clubs would trade for him.
I think so too. Those fans complaining about this hurting Toronto’s chances of signing him to a mega-contract amaze me. Sox, NYY, TB and the O’s would love to see Toronto sink hundreds of millions into a guy who can’t muster an OPS of 800 and already costs 20MM per, with more arb to follow. It would make a lot more sense to sign someone who is actually worth a mega-contract, like Soto, instead of Vlad and then cut him loose rather than pay him 25 next years.
Are clubhouse spreads “all you can eat?” Is there a clause for VGJr?
Haha. Blue Jays are in a lot of trouble with this no win situation. An extremely overrated player that is likely to get worse. They will be forced to sign this guy, or the fans will be pissed. He probably thinks he is worth 300 million+
It might surprise you to learn how many Jays fans think he’s overrated, immature & in need of a good swift kick in the pants.
The average fan has no clue about advanced stats. They still think RBI’s are a good stat
Strange take, because if anything it’s advanced stats that make Vlad look good. His expected offensive output the last two years is much better than his actual results.
RBIs win games. WAR fantasisizes creating wins over some imaginary replacement or average dude who wouldn’t have gotten a contract anyways if his agent hadn’t come up with the convoluted stat that has never even been proven to improve a team. It makes for great copy, a great distraction from the reality that teams aren’t really putting thier best effort into fielding a viable team, each and every year.
To put it simply, they don’t hire and haven’t hired the people they should, the people with passion……the people who love the game, the people who want to compete, the people who want to win…..quite few of the FO guys….never really even played the game.
Well, who should they have hired, you ask?
Seriously, a guy can look at those.”old school stats”, look at the # of ABs, Hits RBIs, HRs, SOs and have a better sense of what is going on than all the calculus in the world.
Why? because they know baseball.
It’s the bottom line that counts at the end of the year.
Advanced stats don’t measure what sits above the neck. Meaning, a guy can cost a team ballgames with poor decision making and that won’t always come up in your little stat sheet.
To articulate how horrendous your comment is, Daulton Varsho was 3rd in WAR on the Jays last year. No single person in their right mind would ever consider Varsho a top 3 player on the Jays, or most valuable. Vlad over Varsho every day of the week. Keep your “advanced stats”.
Thank you.
sabermetrics ruined the sport.
When was the last time you saw a walk drive in a run from second?
Plain ol’ avg still means something to me
as does the great intangible, ‘clutch’
The defensive metrics are flawed.
Pitchers were tentative facing Vlad and went right after Belt. Analytics would say Belt was the better hitter. Baseball people understand that.
Guy needs to be switched to full-time DH.
He won a gold glove sooooo
@Altuves Buzzer
A Gold Glove with a dWAR of -0.7. Are you telling me a player with negative defense deserves a Gold Glove? LOL! The award is a joke. It’s why I prefer the Fielding Bible Awards, as they’re more realistic in terms of who SHOULD actually be awarded for their defense.
Too bad he’s in decline
It’s spelled Dunedin….Jays spring training is in Dunedin. He’s in…. Dunedin.
Jays gonna sign Woodruff next now that they’ve got this done…
The Jays seemed likely to lose this one considering MLBTR’s estimate was even higher than what the Blue Jays offered.
The thing about arbitration is that it almost always suppresses the earnings the player should have generated.
In 2021, Vladdy had a 167 OPS+, a 6.4 Bwar, and finished 2nd in MVP voting.
He made $600 thousand for that. That season should have been worth about $50 million+ on the open market. If you look at a players career up to the end of arbitration as a single contract, they rarely get what they’re worth.
Using WAR $ value (roughly $8 million per WAR)
Vladdy’s 15.2 career WAR should have netted him roughly $121 million
He’s made $43 mil, or about 1/3 of what he was worth. Even if he gets a little overpaid for value in his last two years of arb, the team still saved $80 million
The teams will never go back and compensate players for early success, so the players should push for every penny they can get right until the end of the process.
He’s lucky his IQ didn’t come into play
The 2023 version of Vladdy played hurt and vastly overweight so he was only very good. What version will we get in 2024? If he shows up like he did in his big year and is healthy it will be the superstar, if not just the very good ballplayer. Either way he is a keeper.
And he is not done yet. He will have a long successful career. He is still learning to be a pro.
I know right! those poor billionaire owners who are so charitablehave to scrounge around to pay their players are getting screwed!
Players winning big this arbitration season.
It is hilarious how people think a 24 year old with 130 career HR and a .844 career OPS is a bust. Most players haven’t even sniffed the big leagues yet at that age or came up hit under .200 and got sent back down. I guarantee he would get more respect if he played in the US.
As I have said before, Vladdy is lazy , flat out does not hussle, and now we get to watch him be paid too much, to Flail away on the outside of the plate all season again…
Vlad didn’t deserve the extra $ considering his second decline year in a row. His offense and defense were down and his base running was comical. Hopefully he bounces back and gets in better shape. He’s still young.
This guy just strikes me as the biggest dbag to ever play baseball