March 6: Giolito will receive a second opinion from Dr. Jeff Dugas, Cora said this morning (X link via McCaffrey). Cora conceded that surgery is indeed an option, but no final decisions will be made until the right-hander receives that second opinion.
March 5: Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito experienced discomfort in his right elbow after his most recent throwing session, manager Alex Cora announced Tuesday morning (X link via Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic). He’ll undergo additional testing, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the initial diagnosis is a partial tear of the right ulnar collateral ligament and a flexor strain. A determination on treatment won’t be made until Giolito receives additional opinions, but season-ending surgery is obviously now on the table.
It’s a brutal blow for the Red Sox, who signed Giolito to a two-year, $38.5MM contract that allows the right-hander to opt out following the 2024 campaign. Assuming additional opinions confirm the team’s initial diagnosis, Giolito’s decision on next year’s $19MM player option will be rendered a foregone conclusion before the season even begins. If he indeed picks up that player option, the team would be granted a $14MM club option for the 2026 season. Giolito could then convert that into a mutual option by pitching 140 innings in 2025.
Giolito, 29, signed his current deal in hopes of putting a rough couple years behind him and reentering the market in a stronger position. From 2022-23, the right-hander logged 346 innings but pitched to an ineffective 4.89 ERA between the White Sox, Angels and Guardians. A spike in Giolito’s home run rate contributed heavily to the downturn in performance, but he maintained a better-than-average 25.5% strikeout rate against a slightly higher-than-average 9% walk rate in that span.
The primary culprit in Giolito’s struggles was a spike in home run rate; metrics like xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.01) felt he was better over the past two seasons than his earned run average would indicate — but also still worse than he was in 2019-21 peak, when he fanned nearly 31% of his opponents against a stronger 8% walk rate.
Now, with Giolito’s entire season in doubt, any chances of rebounding could well be placed on hold for a year or more. At the very least, he’s in for a lengthy IL stint and will be absent to begin the season. That leaves Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock as the likeliest options to open the season in Boston’s rotation. Others on the 40-man roster include Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Cooper Criswell. The Sox have not yet added much in the way of veteran arms on non-roster deals to compete for jobs this spring, and they traded lefty Chris Sale to the Braves in the swap that brought second baseman Vaughn Grissom back to Boston.
A major injury to Giolito will undoubtedly fuel speculation regarding the top remaining arms on the market. Red Sox fans have clamored for Jordan Montgomery for much of the offseason. The team has spoken to him and shown interest at multiple points, including just prior to the start of spring training. The Boston connection for Montgomery is particularly strong, as his wife is doing her medical residency in the city. To this point, ownership and/or the front office have resisted meeting the 31-year-old’s asking price, but pressure to make some kind of move will only increase.
While fellow Boras Corporation clients Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and (reportedly) Blake Snell shifted from seeking long-term deals and instead pursued opt-out laden short-term deals, all indications regarding Montgomery to this point have been that he’s still seeking a long-term deal. The Red Sox will need to weigh that ask while determining whether they want to throw more resources at a team that appears poorly positioned to contend for a postseason spot.
Montgomery wouldn’t cost the Sox a draft pick or international money, as he didn’t receive a qualifying offer, and the Sox are about $35MM from the luxury tax threshold, so Montgomery wouldn’t push them to that point either. Snell did reject a QO and would thus cost the Sox their second-best draft pick and $1MM of space in next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agency. There are, of course, alternative options who’ve also not yet signed. Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, for instance, are both still available and both performed reasonably well in the majors just last season.
This figures…waiting for the first tired “full throttle”
Pool – There goes Seinfeld Night at Fenway.
The most highly paid pitcher on the Red Sox staff (sad but true) now joins on the IL the second-highest paid pitcher on the Red Sox staff.
Gio’s crappy past two seasons wasn’t by chance a sign of this injury, now was it?
Karma for the obnoxious, arrogant manner in which Red Sox ownership and management has conducted themselves.
I’ve had Giolito on my fantasy baseball team. He’s an enigma.
The biggest downside to the Red Sox is he was brought in to eat innings and thus help the bullpen. This might force them more to complete a deal for Montgomery. This is Boras’s plan with his two big starters. He knows injuries are coming.
You overestimate how much the red Sox care.
They got him to replace Sale…he is on the DL…
Also adding to the fact Sale looks healthy and Grissom is injured to start the season. We’ve undone all our big deals, which isn’t saying much
Is there a new definition for “big?” Just kidding, I get the drift.
No, that’s a good way to put it.
Fans like you, why should they?
You talking about me?
White Sox training staff hasn’t been great recently but he had to go through medical evaluations for the trades and the signing the contract and I don’t think this would be missed.
I think his poor play recently was more the league adjusting to his pitching high strategy and him not having an adjustment.
The White Sox training staff is the biggest joke in baseball but you can’t blame them for this. 3 teams gave him Physicals last year and they all missed it if it was there. The one good thing about Giolito was his durability. That’s out the window now.
Banix – The Red Sox medical staff “missed” the Sale injury when he signed the extension.
They “missed” the Story injury when they signed him.
The list goes on and on. In all fairness, some things cannot be caught by medical exams. PERFORMANCE is usually a sign of injury.
Fever. Bloom admitted he was WELL AWARE of his injury when he signed him. I liked Story as our final solution at 2nd, despite the injury, but Bloom also admitted that was not his thinking.
william – The world was well aware of the injury he sustained while in Colorado.
However the Red Sox medical staff was clueless as to the extent of the injury. If they knew surgery would be required, they’d have done it immediately after falling out of contention in August 2022.
One thing people don’t realize, athletes KNOW when there is something physically wrong with them. When hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake, of course they will hide the injury or downplay it.
Sale, Story and now Gio all likely kept health concerns to themselves and played it safe until the money was guaranteed …. then they were like “Gonna go full effort and if something happens it won’t matter because I already got paid”.
I am not speculating. Bloom said he was well aware of the injury and made the trade.
Blooms defense is that A NEW elbow injury occurred requiring the DL and surgery. As anyone that has ever played a sport will tell you, playing hurt generally causes other hurts. Bloom admitted he knew Story was playing with an elbow injury when he signed him. He is simply saying that his hurt elbow that was causing pain and hampered his velocity and aim for a couple seasons played absolutely no part in the same part of his body needing surgery.
William – Like I said, everyone was aware of the injury.
Bloom was not aware of the extent. He never would have given $140M to Story if he knew he would require surgery very soon, nor would he have delayed the surgery. But of course Bloom was an idiot for not understanding how high the possibility. He gambled and lost, something he did many times.
It’s worse than missing injuries. They knew full well that a lot of these guys had injuries, but felt fine about it.
That’s where Monty wanted to go this really seems to line up. What would the deal be tho 115 over 5 23aav? Or do u think he will get more
If we were talking about 23 mill avg salary over 5 for Monty and we gave that $19 mill contract to Gio than my point is checkmate.
Monty is out there still because they are either going for the maximum value long term, or a very high annual value with the most upside flexibility short-term for the player.
With a Boras negotiation you can be sure nearly always, with few exceptions, that a team will feel it did not win, or got a real discount. The starting demands tend to be astronomical for that player and if the demands ever decrease will end up still higher than the value of the player. There are always exceptions to anything, but few in these cases. Those exceptions are always driven by what the player truly wants, and seeing what they want potentially to slip away if those demands do not align.
Fever, I just want you to understand that when I post it is never adversarial. I am just pointing out what Bloom said and his excuse. Disregarding an injury without thinking it can worsen or effect output, especially in a shoulder, back, elbow, or knee was surprising on his part. Especially for a player tasked with shortstop on a fairly long-term commitment.
What is concerning to me was that he knew of the injury, and everyone could see that he had lost significant power and accuracy in his throws. This was a visible real time issue. Put aside how hard it is to hit with a lingering elbow injury. From a defensive standpoint Story was an incredible risk at shortstop despite his previous sure handedness.
Again, I never disapproved of the deal despite a two-year decline in his throwing velocity and diminished accuracy due to the injury. I assumed he was the starting second baseman for the Sox for the length of the deal finally ending the black hole we had at second base. You can pull up dozens of posts made on this by me. My objective and goal are always solutions to problem areas. Second base was a disaster and had potential to become a strength. He may have still had the surgery needing injury, most likely actually. I didn’t object because it was a unique situation for the Bloom regime actually trying to solve a problem.
Unless you’re Doc Ellis, pitching high is a bad strategy.
Uncle – How do you know the two teams that traded for him gave him physicals? Typically teams don’t, and an injury such as this requires an MRI. Team’s don’t authorize MRI’s unless the player is complaining of pain.
nbcsports.com/mlb/news/why-dont-teams-give-physica…
But the Pirates didn’t check. According to team President Frank Coonelly the team didn’t even ask for a physical. Instead, they relied on scouting reports. Of course, Iwamura was just DFA’d because he’s been awful, and he’s been awful in large part because his knee still bothers him immensely. Maybe they need to give their scouts portable MRI machines.
Coonelly says it’s uncommon for teams to request physicals for players for whom they trade. Why? Especially when the trade involves players coming off major surgery. Free agent signings are usually accompanied by physicals, so why not trades?
William – I understand you’re not being adversarial, all good. Sometimes players can still continue playing with an injury, like Tanaka did, but yes I totally agree it was poor judgement by Bloom especially for the money involved.
I disapproved of the Story signing for many reasons, not just the injury. His offensive numbers were on a steady decline for years, and his contract meant the end of Xander. It was a horrible series of related decisions, as usual in an effort to save a few bucks for ownership. And if John Henry is now pointing to Story as a reason why he no longer will spend big for talent, that makes the Story signing an even bigger gut punch.
It does kind of make you start to question the Red Sox staff the does the physicals when they are signing a player for hundreds of millions of dollars. The only good thing with Giolito is it”s a 2 year deal. Now they could go and sign Snell and or Montgomery and get the same exact results. It’s always a big gamble.
I went back and looked at the stats of players like Jim Palmer, Wilbur Wood, Catfish Hunter, and these guys pitch close to or over 300 innings a season and double digit complete games and had 20 year careers without injury. What the heck happened? The only stat that really stood out to me was they didn’t strikeout more batters than innings pitched.
Yaz – three things happened:
1) old school guys didn’t have the protections from the union the new ones do. They played hurt, because of they didn’t, they weren’t getting paid! So, many guys pitched hurt or banged up, till they couldn’t then they quit.
2) modern guys are throwing more taxing stuff at earlier ages when their bodies are still developing. That means more strains and effects on ligaments and such from younger ages as well.
3) it used to be pitchers pitched. Now many times they throw for max effort to hit the numbers on the radar gun. Used to be they didn’t even know for sure what they were hitting pitch to pitch. Now they see it in fairly real time and push even harder to get that extra 1 or 2 mph.
Combine all that and you’re going to see more issues and more surgeries.
Yup you said right – its just GREED
My thoughts exactly. Unfortunately a truly disastrous season may be the only way to get ownership off the idiot train they’ve been on since 2019.
@box, since 2001 or so, its kinda been the MO for them, win a few seasons,, tank a few seasons,, rinse and repeat.. they were just fortunate in those win few to take a WS in ’13 and ’18
jope – The pattern was broken with Bloom.
Dombrowski, Cherington and Theo all won championships.
Bloom won nothing except a WC.
Fever, agreed and a good choice to cut ties. He put so much window dressing on everything from what I saw. More than Brodie V, who atleast tried to make a splash via trades with the Mets. Being a Yankee fan, I don’t mind you being this bad, but out of respect of the game and fandom. I hope you all screamed and fought to demand a more quality product than what has been out there. Obviously as Bloom is gone, the screams were loud enough, which is nice to see when an Owner appears to listen.
I thanked Saux fans at the time for jumping on this grenade and not letting the Mets make this mistake; thanks again!!
Fever – is it too soon for the narrative that it didn’t take Cora long to break his shiny new toy? 😉
GASox – I’m not going there!!
At least I can say I got a really good look at his first start in a Sox uniform, and he pitched quite well.
The Cubs have a track record of drafting and rehabbing guys who have had TJ. Breslow was a big part of that system. I’m pretty sure signing a FA pitcher and having him go down 2 weeks into ST wasn’t in the plan, But I have no doubt he’ll be back. Are the Red Sox Drs so bad they missed a bad UCL? You can only blame Breslow for the information he was given and you could count on Giolito for 200 innings every year. What kind of innings is debatable, But Breslow will be good for the Sox in the long run for you guys I think. Anyway I wouldn’t hold this against Breslow.
GASox – Okay this from Yahoo Sports deserves mentioning … but I’m still not going there!! Haha!! ;O)
“Red Sox and new pitching coach Andrew Bailey had identified mechanical issues they believed were at the heart of Giolito’s struggles and had already begun implementing the changes as soon as he signed in Boston. Giolito said after his first spring start that the Red Sox team identified an issue in the offseason and had a plan to modify the pitch as soon as Giolito arrived. “Coming into camp, the whole pitching team, they were showing me some data about it, how it was getting a little bit too slow, a little bit too curveball-ish, so we switched up the grip. About a week ago, I started working on that, and I was pleased with how it was coming out. Still continuing to hone that in, but throwing the slider in like the mid-to-high 80s I think is a better move for me.””
Fever, sounds like you’re at least wading into the shallow end of the pool, may as well just dive on in and embrace it!
Red Sox seem to be in the buying mode for SPs now…
Folks keep thinking the White Sox ain’t gonna ultimately get what they want for Dylan Cease. Cease is only gonna cost you a bunch of kids. He is making like $8 million this year.
Boston just doesn’t have enough kids to get Cease done. Somebody should get fired over the lack of pitching in the Boston farm system.
Firing Dave Dombrowski and then Chaim Bloom wasn’t enough?
Boston can still trade for Cease and sign Snell and Montgomery! 🙂
Do the BoSox have top prospects to trade for Cease?
Cease is an average # 3 pitcher at best that had one good year.
Teams struck by injury that planned to truly compete in ’24 will first cave to paying guys like Clevinger and Lorenzen the 8 figures they want. Their agents are smartly turning down the bargain hunters knowing tons of injuries around mlb would occur like clockwork.
Prospects were treated like gold this offseason. An anticipated decent team will have to suffer in the standings from a bad rotation or key injury in April before giving up any prospect that hurts…..for Cease or Luzardo. No urgency when clubs are 0-0.
Cease is dramatically over-valued by the White Sox but the Red Sox seemingly don’t have the talent to over-spend and clean out their farm to get a 30 start pitcher who most likely isn’t as good as advertised….probably a good #2 or strong #3 but an Ace….jury’s out regardless of the analytics police who will trash my comment here…..
Getz Dec price tag is noise while clubs were trying to avoid paying well into 8 figures for vets like Giolito/Stroman/Lynn/PED Montas, etc
If you fast forward more recent, they would have settled on a realistic deal with Westburg as headliner in lieu of Ortiz. That’s reasonable-but Balt elated Milw couldn’t get much for Burnes pure rental since only shot at extension for any club was to pay 200 minimum now(w/Boras).
Didn’t see a high floor position player prospect moved in any trade regardless of what Getz asked. They are aware the max is likely a legit headliner, decent second prospect and couple long shot projects. Reason usually prevails.
The White Sox just better hope that he isn’t next on the injury carousel.
Teams could certainly build a monster roster via trades if all it took was saying “your guy can get hurt, settle for my lower tier prospects”.
There would be little need to sign FAs if one could compile good players off bad teams.
Barry – Someone did get fired … Bloom.
William Shakespeare is rolling in his grave wishing he had written such a Tragic Comedy as is the current state of my beloved Boston Red Sox!!!
To be or, erm, wait. Ya, to be, on the IL! That is the way, there is no question. I am a Red Sox pitcher. It is too the IL for me!
Montgomery to Red Sox incoming
I don’t think it will change how Breslow operates, honestly. So, if Monty keeps asking what he is, I don’t see the Sox (or anyone else) committing to it.
Now seeing they may have lost Giolito for the entire season Breslow might have to change his way of thinking
Or he’s just excited that he will get a better pick next year. I here good things about JJ Wetherholt
They’re not trying to compete this year. There’s no reason for them to panic and they have leverage over Montgomery for (his) family reasons.
Os1995 unfortunately this will be their third year in the lottery. if they suck this year they won’t get a shot at it a fourth year. So if they don’t win the lottery or get some awesome pick even the bad luck gets worse.
Clip – I agree. It’s not like Sox management was trying to make the postseason this year, so why bother paying more for a SP when they probably won’t make the postseason even with him.
All this means is two of Houk/Winck/Whit will be in the starting rotation.
Monty would have to totally adjust to a team that most likely will be in the AL East basement for some time and value that he’s close to his wife in Beantown…….do you really think a competitor like Monty wants to go from best to worst team wise……..
GMen, is Boston going to compete? If you don’t think so, then what’s the point?
The Red Sox give up a draft pick. Then one of two things will happen. Montgomery will be good this year, and then be a free agent in 2025 and Boston is down a pick. Or he’s bad and the Red Sox are stuck with an albatross contract.
If he’s good, he’ll opt out and the Red Sox will get a second bite at the apple next year.
Signing Montgomery does not require to give up a pick. There was no QO attached to him.
Thank you Susannah.
It does lower the risk. So if you think there is a chance to compete, it might be worth the gamble. If not, if he’s good, you’ll still get a bite of the apple next year.
Monty doesn’t require losing a pick due to being traded mid season.
Walker, I always appreciate being “educated”. Thank you.
The Red Sox might call but will Monty want to go from best to worst……
No, he doesn’t. But will if the Red Sox offer a reason for him to change his mind. Of course he would rather be a Ranger. His wife is going to medical school/residency, not being handed a prestigious position. She can graduate and go where she wants. She is in Boston temporarily.
Yes, she can find a job in the Dallas area, easily. The Sox counting on some kind of discount is hopeful at best.
William – on top of all that, she will also be busting her ass during her residency working countless hours. No way he gives a discount just to watch his wife sleep
Pitchers and catchers started reporting to ST about 3 weeks ago. Monty and Snell are going to be about a month behind (assuming they sign within a week or so).
Should we think that’s a good thing or bad thing for health probability?
Off the field workouts (as Boras like to tout) aren’t even close to replicating ST preparation.
I kinda feel like they have no choice but to do something.
sign Rich Hill. no need to waste big $$ on Monty of Snell for what will likely be a (very) lost season. save the money for 2025 and call it a day.
You use that word incoming with the Red Sox. I don’t think it means what you think it means. – Inigo Montoya
I’m taking a shot every time someone says sign Trevor Bauer
Don’t do that to your liver man
Just returned from a cruise and some dude was wearing a shirt that said, “shut up liver, you’re fine!”
Your comment reminded me of it.
Gmen – That’s what liver dialysis machines are for.
Except they’re for kidneys that is.
Uncle – Liver too, that’s why I specifically included the word ;O)
jeffersonhealth.org/conditions-and-treatments/live…
Never heard of liver dialysis. Amazing what you learn on this site.
A first for me also.
Liver Let Die
Sign Trevor Bauer
What kind of shot?
Bulleit or a bullet?
Actually, if the Sox wanna try and cheap their way to some wins, than maybe they actually make some sense.
SIGN TREVOR BAUER 8)
See ya in 25
Nick Pivetta gets the bump opening day?
southern – Cora said it would be Sale. Haha!!!
I’m guessing it will be Bello, unless Cora says no because he doesn’t think Bello can handle it …. which of course would be a ridiculous reason, but that’s Cora!
Montgomery to the Sox in 3..2…1
Boras on line 1.
Boras has a voodoo doll of every MLB pitcher and is harnessing the power of Jobu.
Yo, bartender! Jobu needs a refill. (and so do Sox fans this season)
Boras just waits out the spring training pitcher injuries. He knows they are inevitable, Gray yesterday, Giolito today.
Before my fellow Sox fans panic, just remember: we were going to be bad this year no matter what. One less #4 starter doesn’t change that calculus.
Still, though—pretty hilarious that the main motivator for signing Giolito was his health and consistency and he immediately goes down with the most daunting kind of injury a pitcher can have. Hope Chris Sale wins a Cy Young.
That’s really kind of you to say that he’s a #4 starter. I’d put him as a decent bullpen piece at best.
crocus – The cheapskate Sox never would have given Gio such a huge contract if they thought it was for a #4 SP. They expected 2019-2021 Gio which was 180 IP and a 3.50 ERA. They are damn fools to not figure out the reason for his sucktitude the past couple years could have been health related.
Giolito had a 3.79 ERA over his first 21 starts last year. He went downhill from there which may have been due to him getting divorced.
suit – So why did he also suck in 2022?
Was that because he got married that year?
Fever you’re probably right. The kid asked, why does the bride wear white in the wedding? Friend said because she’s happy and it’s the greatest day of her life.
Kid then asked, why does the groom wear black?
Gary – Haha …. thank you for the laugh, I needed that! I’m a big Al Bundy fan so the wife jokes always make me laugh.
I’m probably the only one who suggested maybe Monty DOESN’T want to live with his wife during the season. Haha!
Hope Chris Sale wins a Cy Young.
So does his mom. Not gonna happen.
Man… him joining the Angels completely derailed his career
I blame the Braves, for signing away Reynaldo Lopez.
That goes for a lot of Angels players.
Couldn’t help yourself with angels slander couldn’t you? I could see you foaming at the mouth
Pitchers these days are just a bunch of delicate flowers compared to the warriors of yore. I mean, who needs to throw complete games when you can have a whole team of relief pitchers to do the heavy lifting? Back in the day, they’d pitch until their arms fell off – a true display of commitment!
And let’s talk about pitch counts. The modern pitcher gets a pat on the back for hitting 100 pitches, while legends of the past would scoff at such low numbers. A mere 150 pitches? Child’s play! Real men pitched until they couldn’t feel their arms anymore.
And don’t get me started on guys who wear cups.
And batting helmets
York – These days it’s always about max effort. Maybe somebody they’ll figure out the harm it does to pitchers.
Dynamics have changed since then. Many reasons for this, and nobody is willing to acknowledge the differences in the game between 1984 and 2024.
@its_happening
The only difference is… strategy has changed. I’d rather strike out 200 times and hit 30+ HRs. They gave up on contact hitting. As that 90s commercial said, Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
No. There is more.
New stadiums have smaller foul territory. Good pitch is hit out of play, rewarding hitters.
Whenever big parks are built, hitters complain and the fences are brought in.
Hitters prior to 1994 didn’t wear arm protectors, except Bonds. Put on a game from 35-40 years ago. You’ll see very few crowded the plate with confidence the way protected players do today. Pitchers respond with max effort. Hit by pitches are up the last 30 years.
That’s just a few.
@its_happening
The point is that the strategy to hit for power has been the main influencer since then, which has seen side effects as you mentioned but the core issue is the switch from contact hitting to power.
They build new stadiums much smaller to encourage more power. They bring the fences in for the power. All that protection is there to prevent getting hit with a 100mph pitch because pitchers have decided they need to throw harder to counter the power surge with hitters.
Pitchers countered because hitters are allowed to be overprotected with armour and league rules. Take all the body armour off and give it 1-2 years, you will see the hitters make adjustments and pitchers make adjustments. Less need for 100 mph when more hitters will buckle at a curve. They barely do nowadays.
That contact hitting you speak of would return. It’ll have to as hitters will be less comfortable and kept honest.
In the days of yore many top end pitchers blew their elbows or shoulders out before reaching the major leagues, or well before establishing themselves. Let’s not kid ourselves. What we were often seeing weren’t necessarily the most talented, but the healthiest.
Every medical advance was pushed BECAUSE we dealt with so many career ending injuries. A rotator cuff was a career ender often. Tommy John hasn’t thrown a pitch since the 1980s, and only made it back because of the surgery that ended up bearing his name. The list of former pitchers who would DREAM to have these medical developments in their time is probably most certainly long,
That said…..we’re forcing too much velocity in amatuer baseball to flash the gun for collegiate and professional scouts,
Dock it does not change the fact that hitters are well-protected, crowd the plate with no recourse and with a smaller foul territory it helps them stay in at-bats longer. Plus many stadiums have become hitter-friendly. If we want velocity to drop we need to see hitters have less of an edge, a little more fear and a little less coverage off the outside part of the plate. Added velocity has been the pitcher’s “solution” to a problem never discussed.
Have to pitch inside and own that part of the plate. Max effort is the newer fad….I’ve been sitting with radar at a lot of D1 games…it’s constant hard stuff. Almost can’t tell the pitchers apart. Baseball ebbs and flows. Launch angle to combat velocity. Pitching will eventually circle around. Needs to happen lower in the amateur ranks first.
You need to take away the advantages hitters have. Many hitters have their hands hovering over the plate and standing very close to the line. They are too comfortable, and umpires are encouraged to overpolice.
You want pitchers to circle around? It starts with the hitters. Take their padded protection away on their arms and you’ll see said adjustment. All levels.
My rule while pitching was that I owned the plate. If a body part entered that zone I was knocking it back. If you can’t own the inside of the plate it makes the outside ineffective too.
Yes, I want pitching to circle back around. The batter protection doesn’t enter into that. It seems like everyone has a closer mentality now. It’s all hard…and I’m seeing guys without hardly a secondary pitch. Throwing 95 doesn’t have the value it would seem if every guy is 95 and straight. You’re just running pitching machines out.
What happens is you have these guys with a closer approach tossing 5 innings at lower levels too. Same approach as a one inning stopper over 5…yeah that’s how we get into all these rampant TJs.
Too many velocity academies who don’t have any real investment in the future.
At some point we have to give up a few ticks on the gun and be pitchers and less throwers.
You knock it back, you’re warned or tossed. Overpolicing. What I said before.
Batter protection enters into everything you mentioned; more protection, more comfort in the batters box, see a curve don’t flinch, cover the outside corner with barrel because you’re close to the plate.
The ticks on the MPH will decrease shortly after you ban all arm protection on hitters. And, let the players police themselves. Umps taking control has not helped.
You want more pitchers? This is part of the solution. Having a bigger foul territory would help also. Pitchers make a good pitch and get penalized for balls going out of play.
Valid points! Pitchers need to be able to work the plate without the compelling need to blast the ball by…or risk throwing to a small zone with all their stuff.
I’d also add they’re protecting much more $$ assets in the box than they were decades ago. Give a guy 30M a year…for sure there’s pressure on the game to protect the investment.
As much as I love the depth of analysis we have now. It’s helped create a game that’s TOO efficient. The pitching issue is a little akin to the shift and other things.
It all seems to ebb and flow. Enjoy the conversation!
This is why some teams avoid signing 30-year-old free agent pitchers to massive deals. No Lucas did not assign a massive deal but the fact remains these guys are volatile. They get hurt they have bad years and it’s the rare guy that earns the entire contract.
So no, this does not mean they pivot to Jordan Montgomery. This is why you DON’T sign guys like that. Nor Blake Snell.
What you do is what the Red Sox are doing now. Homegrown pitching. Young guys. Development. Then you add free agent bats and position players. That’s the recipe for success.
Can you give John Stanton a call? Lol
#profitsoverpennants
$20 million to MISS this season seems like a massive deal to me. That is a fairly large percentage of even a team like the Red Sox’s payroll in dead money. The fact that he signed a shorter deal may end up hurting the Red Sox worse because Giolito might never even throw a pitch for the team. On a longer deal, you could at least potentially get some value on the back end.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they only get 10 starts late next season out of this deal. It’s kind of wild how quickly the UCL can flame up. You’d think with the money involved, and medical advances, we’d catch more issues during the contract physicals.
You can only catch an injury during the contract physical if it currently exists. Injuries that happen in spring training are after the contract physical.
True. But do we not have imaging that can spot stress? With the money involved I’m surprised we’re not basing contract negotiations on risk. I’m surprised insurance doesn’t press for that. Just so many TJs. Perhaps I’m wishful thinking.
Gary – Nothing personal but you couldn’t be more wrong.
This is why you DON’T take “flyers” on guys who are currently injured, or have been been injured a lot in the past, or have SUCKED for the past two years. Gio obviously falls into that category.
This is why you DO pay good money for talented pitchers who have been durable and have been performing well for the past few years. Monty obviously falls into that category.
I as a Red Sox fan am offended that you want the Red Sox to sign nobody good because you’d rather wait the 4+ years for the farm system to start producing MLB pitchers. Red Sox fans have suffered enough the past 5 years, we will NOT accept another 4-year waiting period with Breslow or any HOBO.
Fever, it’s rolling the dice. Whether it’s starting pitching or expensive bullpen guys, maybe 2/3 work out and 1/3 don’t. But okay I’ll buy into what you’re saying. It’s the cost of doing business in Major League baseball. Fair enough.
Gary – In all honesty, would you be at all nervous about giving Monty a $100M contract?
He’s not old.
He’s been a workhorse.
He’s been consistently good for the past 3 years.
He doesn’t have a history of injury.
There’s bad gambles and good gambles. Monty would be a good one. But yeah, what’s the point of signing him if there’s no plans to compete the next few years.
$100MM for how many years? Expecting any pitcher to be healthy for a 5 year stretch is not realistic these days.
stymee – 4/$25M
Hardly any pitcher has gone 5 years without an injury. I can only think of 1.
@fever not only that the RS have shown NO evidence they can even develop elite pitchers. Even coming in last place more times recently than in their history they still have no elite pitching prospects!
Box – Yes that’s due to Bloom’s approach of filling out the pitching staff via trade, free agent signings and dumpster diving.
Bello and Crawford and Houck are courtesy of Dombrowski, probably gonna be a while before any more decent pitchers are developed …. but I do have confidence Breslow, Bailey etc will accomplish that eventually.
@ GaryWarriorsRedSoxx:
Young and homegrown is the way to go for the starting rotation you say?
Texas Rangers 2023 – Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi, Martin Perez, Jordan Montgomery, Andrew Heaney
Houston Astros 2022 – Justin Verlander, Jake Odorizzi
Atlanta Braves 2021 – Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly
LA Dodgers 2020 – Starting rotation home grown, Clayton Kershaw was expensive at that point and risky by your standards.
Washington Nationals 2019 – Patrick Corbin, Max Scherzer, Aníbal Sánchez
Boston Red Sox 2018 – Rick Porcello, David Price, Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi
Houston Astros 2017 – Charlie Morton, Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers
Chicago Cubs 2016 – Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, John Lackey, Jason Hammel
Kansas City Royals 2015 – Johnny Cueto, Chris Young, Edinson Vólquez
All these non-homegrown guys made notable contributions to starting rotations that won World Series Titles
To sum up, no you can’t win a title with a cheap, homegrown starting rotation. The only team recently to come close was the Dodgers, but Clayton Kershaw was expensive and ‘risky’ at that point.
Youth doesn’t guarantee health. Ask the Rays how much money they have to spend on the upkeep of their conveyor belt Tommy John factory they had built under the stadium for all their young “healthy” arms.
In order to win it all, a team has to be willing to take some financial risks. History has shown that time and time again.
Canuckleball: You take those financial risks when you have a team close to winning a championship. The Red Sox are not close now. Most long, expensive contracts turn out bad. However, it may be worth the gamble if you are close to winning it all.
Not true. The Rangers stunk when they invested in Semien, Seager, and Gray. Had just lost 102 games. Two years later they’re champs.
Seam – Of course you are 100% correct.
The team with the 3rd-largest revenue in MLB can easily go from last place to true contenders within a year or two … if they weren’t arrogant, greedy cheapskate owners who care only about profits.
Apparently the person who claimed it’s not possible doesn’t remember the 2016 team that went from 78-84 to 93-69 the following year … and a division championship.
Or the 2013 team that went from 69-93 to 97-65 the following year …. and won the World Series.
I think the Red Sox will wait until they have more of a young core in place before they start spending in free agency. This avoids the free agents declining when the young core is ready to go.
There is more than one way to do things. I think the smartest teams build toward a window of contention. They get a young core in place and once they are in place, they supplement with veterans via trade and free agency. This gives the longest window of contention and the chance to win the most World Series championships. I think the Red Sox are taking this approach. The O’s, for example, have taken this approach. Their young core is in place and they are now adding veterans such Corbin Burnes.
Canuck – Fantastic post!!!
I don’t see the Rays in that list at all, wonder why? Oh yeah … they haven’t won a legit postseason series since 2008.
You know what the irony is? Bloom specifically acknowledged he felt pitchers are far more volatile than position players, and felt they could always be acquired via trade or free agency. And that’s why he ignored pitchers with his drafts.
Great post Canuckleball !! History definitely shows you need veterans on the hill.
I remember Theo stating as much while in Bos. Something to the effect of letting other teams take the risk on drafting pitchers. Draft offense and defense. Build your staff through free agency. Save for Lester and Pap, I think he stuck to that mantra.
swan – I haven’t done an analysis, but I think the percentage of first round pitchers that flame out is a lot higher than first round position players. And the talent that comes internationally is much more often pitchers.
So I don’t have a problem with the philosophy as long as money is spent to address pitcher needs.
Gary: You are correct. This exactly why you avoid signing older players to long, massive deals. Giolito has been durable and yet this happened to him.
If teams COULD all develop their own prospects they would. I disagree on 30 year old vets to an extent. Some are past a TJ, and some have built a case for their capacity to take the mound.
The Red Sox LOVE paying players to not play. They’ll sign injured players to pray they even throw an inning. It’s ridiculous. Truly hope they win 70 games and people stop going to games. Unbelievably stupid.
Redsox Nation is DEFINITELY in BOYCOTT MODE Worldwide! I am not buying a dam thing so that’s about 2 to 3k back in my pocket. Together WE, who built this team…Redsox Nation, have more power than this ownership understands or respects. Let’s teach them a lesson Southie Style!
Marky Mark is that you
guru: why don’t you actually start boycotting then instead of commenting on posts and speaking for other people.
Giolito was not an injured player.
The elbow huh. Yeah that’s not a good sign…
If there’s any consolation for Red Sox fans, at least Giolito is just a two-year deal, so he won’t hurt as much as if it were a six-year deal. I don’t think Breslow bites and signs Montgomery, that’s not happening with how they view 2024.
You think Breslow is the one running the team still, that it’ll be his decision to sign Monty or not?
Lol
Boras is having a good news day. Verlander and Giolito down this morning and Gray getting injured yesterday.
I’m guessing this makes the Red Sox less likely to spend on Montgomery.
Jeff Passan says partially torn UCL and flexor strain
Another case of TJ surgery having a decade expiration date.
Do you know of any databases that track who has/hasn’t had TJ?
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiu…
Giolito appears to be the perfect replacement for Sale
Sale got too healthy and had to go.
Darragh was right.
Time to pound the under for the Sox, boys.
Everyone saying Monty, Snell, Bauer… Lorenzen, Rich Hill, Cueto, Clevinger, Greinke, Odorizzi, and Tommy Milone are just a couple guys out there that still can be #5s at the least. The market isn’t entirely dried up yet.
Dick hill for the win
Dick Mountain*, Immaculate Grid legend
Ty for correcting me!!!
Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Never go full White Sox.
Vaughn Grissom to start the season on the IL, and now Giolito probably out for the season. These are the two key moves in the Breslow era. What a start. Full throttle baby! This team is a joke. Trade everyone. Burn it down and start anew.
Cheap – This will make it even more hilarious if Sale starts 30 games this year.
Buy high and sell low …. great approach Red Sox! It’s working like a charm so far!!!
Sorry to hear this.
I’ve got a bad feeling about this season already
Already? Should have had that feeling months ago.
Already? I started dreading this season back in September
Do the surgery now. You don’t want to be caught in elbow limbo
Still mad about Mize being treated for months and then just getting the TJ surgery, Caused him to miss all of the ’23 season when he could’ve come back and pitched the last couple months.
Force Giolito to pitch left handed.
The question is who announces getting Tommy John first, Giolito or Kyle Bradish?
I don’t know, but guessing Clevinger, Lorenzen, Syndergaard on one year deals before Montgomery or Snell. Boston has to go through Yanks, Orioles and Toronto – eeesh. Probably going to take more than Snell or Montgomery to do that.
Probably more likely Boras uses this to try to get SF to bite on Snell cause now there is a market (whether or not true).
Sox need all three. Otherwise Whitlock and Houck get torched as starters.
Clevinger must be asking for a lot because he’s a very solid pitcher but is still out there. Given the choice, it seems like Clevinger would have been a better option over Giolito (even without hindsight and this injury). His asking price must be too high.
I don’t think Syndergaard has any business on a big league mound anymore. I’d be fine with the other two.
There was no way Giolito didn’t know there was something wrong with the elbow before signing the contract. Chances are either Snell or Montgomery has some looming problem as well. BUYER BEWARE.
“Full throttle…”
…right into the sun.
Assuming giolito comes back and is good in 2025 for less than 140ip..that 14 mil club option for 2026 is gonna be intersring ..hopfully the sox have 2024 fully insured and can maybe reallocate that money quickly
John Henry has been vocal in the past regarding opposition to insurance for contracts ever since he had a really bad experience trying to collect on one as an owner of the marlins.
I would be more surprised to hear they insured Giolito than to hear they now go and sign both Snell and Montgomery. (And I think there’s near 0% chance of that as well, so, that’s saying something.)
Scott Boras has entered the chat.
Lolololololololololololololololol. Ouch! Let’s go Yankees!!!
Not sure a Yankees fan should invite the injury karma considering their recent history…
It can’t get any worse honestly.
Famous last words
SHEESH thoughts and prayers to Sox fans. See you guys Jul 30th for my first trip to Fenway, but I don’t know who’s going to be pitching
Nick Pivetta
SODO – It will likely be Cooper Criswell, who will forever be remembered for his name only.
In all seriousness, I’m hoping for Bello or Kutter, I have yet to see either in person. At least you guys have a good young 1-2 there with some good upside.
SODOM – I do like Crawford a lot.
Bello still has to prove himself, he’s got tremendous talent but that’s not always enough.
Fever Cooper pitches in AAA Worcester as starting depth. Wink goes into the rotation before Cooper Criswell. I’m cautiously optimistic about how the guys have thrown this spring they look crisp.
Bruin – I was being half-facetious, but here’s the thing …. it’s probably a good bet two of Winck/Whit/Houck will be in the rotation.
When Cora needs a fill-in starter, either because of injury or to give the rotation an extra day of rest, he’s not going to have all three of those guys in the rotation at the same time. If Houck becomes the closer, then Winck will already be in the rotation.
I think it’s very very likely Cooper will get at least a start or two.
Fever I see Houck as a true breakout this year as a starter. His fastball really looks heavy this spring he has always thrown an excellent slider and his off speed stuff looks much better he appears to of become a complete pitcher this off-season. Everyone is talking about Bello taking that next step with Bailey but Houck looks like that guy to me this spring perhaps he can have Logan Webb breakout that Bailey got similar type pitchers relying heavily on ground balls. I can’t see Houck anywhere but in the rotation at this point.
Bruin: How do Slaten and Song look? They look good in the box scores.
Bruin – I’ve been a Houck supporter since Day One, and I agree he could very well have that breakout season. I know he’s had poor results 3rd time through a lineup, but I think he can improve in that area.
Poetic and tragic
yes they do
I see the trade market heating up soon…
Nick Pivetta is the opening day starter now Roflmao. Well I was saying 74-88 I think 69-93 is more like it now
Bello will be the opening day starter. Now barring an addition it looks like Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, and Whitlock. It might be a disaster rotation but Bello has really good stuff Pivetta was really good after employing that sweeper last year and I really like how Houck and Crawford are throwing this spring. They will probably need 6 starters for the first month in which case Wink is that guy. It’s probably a last place AL East rotation but I have high hopes for Kutter and Houck this year both look noticeably stronger physically for that matter so does Whitlock.
Bello, Pivetta, and Kutter give us three starters, which is about as many as we had at any particular point last season
Bruin – Why do you think they will need a 6th starter in April? They have 4 days off fairly evenly spread out throughout the month.
I’ve seen Crawford pitch twice in ST, he could be the biggest nice surprise of the pitching staff.
They play 13 in a row starting on the 9th of April. I think they will use a 6th starter a couple of times during that stretch probably Wink. I expect they keep them to keep Wink stretched out in the long reliever role in case of an injury in the rotation after that. I expect him to be the next man up after that in case of injury.
Fever yes Crawford looks really good but the guy who really looks good to me is Houck. He’s giving me the Logan Webb breakout vibes. Baileys work with him seems to have given immediate dividends his sinker looks awesome this spring. It’s a true bowling ball sinker wouldn’t shock me if his ground ball percentage gets into the 60% range this year. Houck and Crawford have really stood out to me as potential breakouts this year. I’m wondering I think it’s pretty clear the Red Sox don’t have a SP1 type this year but maybe one or two guys break out as SP2 types and the rest are SP 3 types. I think it’s possible the staff just has a bunch of 3 war type guys no true ace but from what I’ve seen this spring it wouldn’t shock me if they were all just real solid. Pivetta was really solid last year from middle of June on when he introduced that sweeper, Bello is a breakout candidate, Whitlock looks stronger this spring and appears to have that changeup separation he lacked last year. It’s early and we will learn more as they go deeper into games but I really like the way the arms are throwing this spring. The bullpen looks to be real solid as well. Slaten the rule 5 guy looks like a keeper so does Weissert and Campbell look like good pickups. That lefty Benitez had one bad outing but his stuff looks nasty.
I’m generally a positive positive guy but have to admit it was tough during the Bloom tenure to watch all the big league talent leave. I’m just not getting that meet the new boss same as the old boss vibe, my nod to the Who, with Breslow. I find it hard to believe that a pitching coach can make that much difference right away but I have to say I like what I see. Hell even Walter looks good this spring he’s throwing harder and pounding the strike zone with his nasty slider and changeup. I’m cautiously optimistic on this pitching staff.
He’a done.
7 and 4 preseason, who needs him anyway? This team is stacked and ready to dominate.
Over before it starts for Giolito
I think the fans have had enough of the injuries already. Giolito already looking like a bust. Let’s give Bauer a chance… he seems hungry enough to prove his self!
I think the Red Sox are going to be scooping up a couple starters now.
FULL THROTTLE BABY!!!
So now the Sox actually replaced a part time Sale with a no time Giolito.
The only question left is who do they take with the #1 overall draft after they finish with the worst record in MLB this year.
It’s karma. Cora was the bench coach during the Astros cheating scandal. The beady eyed little cheater is getting what he deserves. I feel bad for Breslow. He is a great human being
Oh man, I was hoping he would break the record for homers allowed at Fenway.
Whoops
Sale makes 30 starts this season, over or under?
After this I’ll go over just because it’s the luck of the draw these days
That’s a lot of dead money just like that.
Sox can afford it, at least.
Hate to see a guy get injured, so I’m not commenting on that. But for the Sox this was always kind of a head-scratcher. Trading Sale but then taking on another risky SP? What even is this team they are running out this year? It certainly isn’t good enough to compete for the division title. They’re going to have to fight like hell for a wildcard spot. Strange few years for Boston from a baseball operations perspective.
The Curse of Mookie Betts.
This explains Giolito’s fade in 2023. He lost velocity and command.
This is a massive blow to the Red Sox even though they weren’t going to contend this year. It always seemed like the idea behind signing Giolito was the hope that he bounces back and they either flip him at the trade deadline or give him the QO next offseason after he opts out. Now those plans are out the window
Lol
Oof. Sorry RS fans.
Sign Snell, Montgomery, and Bauer to short year deals. Extend Bello for 10 plus years and enjoy his cy young production! Extend Houck for cheap and he will turn into righty Sale! Extend Casas and Teel and they will be be nasty! Trade to get Bogey back and you have a world series champion!
Padres, go and offer Marsee and another solid prospect to the Red Sox for Yoshida. Yoshida is a perfect fit for our need at LF and in the lineup. Padres need more lefty bats. Get on the phones Preller!
“Yoshida is a perfect fit for our need at LF”
If Yoshida, one of the worst fielders in MLB, is a “perfect fit,” things must be really bad in SD..
Well we just had Juan Soto so it was pretty bad
Being a Cleveland fan, watched this guy at the end of last season. Thought he was hurt then based on his performance.
Jeb – That would explain why no team would give him more than 2 years. Other than Bloom, did any team offer more than a year?
Sucks for Gio, ugh. I wonder if his constant tweaking last year to try and figure things out messed him up or if his ineffectiveness was due to a slow tear happening.
Chris Sale has to at least have a smirk on his face and I, for one, wouldn’t blame him.
People can trash this sox team and thats fine ive also accepted the fact they dont have the starting pitching to get out of the al east basement..but i dont think its going out on a limb to say they can and will hit..and thier defense already looks alot better this spring(not saying much i know) ..but hitting wise i think these kids will be able to score with anyone and will be THAT team others dont want to play down the stretch.
Pool – As everyone knows, I am very high on the offense of Casas, Duran, Devers and Yoshida. I’ve even put money on them to help me get through what will likely be a very bad season.
But without pitching, offense won’t matter.
Poolhall I’m cautiously optomistic about all the non Gio guys in the rotation. I really like the way the young guys are throwing this spring. I know it’s only spring training but the ball is coming out nicely for Bello, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock and even Wink. They all appear to have extra velocity on their fastballs and extra bite on there secondaries. I have been especially liking how Houck and Crawford have looked. I get that it’s only spring training but it just feels different these guys are throwing with extra enthusiasm this spring.
bailey appears to be that rare coach who adds significant value. was giolito’s velocity up this spring? any chance mechanical changes contributed to his injury?
Boston’s clowning themselves.
Let’s load up on all the hurt players now then full throttle at the all-star break next year!!!
Great, we just went from 50 wins to 49
FWIW, you could have an impressive rotation that is also risky in fantasy baseball taking the injury risks/draft day discounts for: Senga, Bradish, Sonny Gray, DeGrom (2nd half), Verlander, and possibly Kevin Gausman/Snell/Montgomery. Most of these you can stash in an IL position, if your league allows that (not Snell/Montgomery).
I’m not a doctor but would play one on tv given the chance but why not the plasma rich injections Marashiro Tanaka got? Never needed surgery and pitched well. Same condition.
Most the time they get those, waste time and end up getting tj. Teams will be scared off waiting for the apple to fall. Probably best to get tj now, get paid for rehab and bounce back showcase, and get paid again in 2026. He could be one of the success stories with the plasma. Just not likely.
Red Sox could sign Trevor Bauer to a minor league deal problem solved!!!!
Apparently, the Orioles have ; Zero; interest and I would enjoy seeing Bauer getting some redemption by pitching shutout ball versus the Orioles
John Henry is woke!! He will never sign Bauer.
He so is…If he wasn’t married I would think he’s a switch hitter in secret. A frugal one to boot!
Haha, I never heard this
The Red Sox spend to boot, so I am a bit surprised
I didn’t know that, I mean it is Boston, but still…. there is some forgiveness to be had and can be considered stylish
So, let me get this straight, Lefty “Orioles fan”, by the logic you just shared you’re more of a Trevor Bauer fan than an O’s fan. What self-respecting Orioles fan would root against their team? C’mon. A$$ Clownery 101
That is just ridiculous Baked Potato McBride!
Next headline, ” Montgomery signs with Red Sox”
Hahahahahaha
This isn’t an “I told you so post.” You can’t count on injuries or health. I thought Gio was a slightly above average rotation piece with potentially more downside than up. An injury never factored into any thought process I had or why I loathed this signing so much.
I thought it was a bad signing because it is a bad signing. On signing day, I labeled the Gio contract one of the most baffling contracts I have seen to this point in many years. I saw so little upside to this. Many pointed to a potential return to Cy Young level greatness and dreamed of elite level prospects being exchanged for Gio by eager teams in playoff contention at the deadline. I saw a .500 pitcher with a 4+ ERA starting every game and exercising his 2nd year option to return as a number 4 or 5 pitcher again. $38 million sunk. $19 million that could have been diverted elsewhere looking towards competing in the future was instantly vanished in the Aether. If I was wrong, the prospect would still be mid-tier on a trade, and Gio would be gone end of year, or we would be taking a MASSIVE risk resigning him long term.
My complaint wasn’t that they signed a pitcher that was a huge gamble on a contract that assured if he succeeded he would leave for $19 mill a year and then followed that up by trading Sale. My complaint was why sign anyone at all at Gio’s talent level to any high value contract that wasn’t elite and long term with this kind of risk if you are resigned to being a last place team?
Even before this injury, is there any Sox fan that would rather have Gio (if he was good for 1 year) at $19 and a collection of bench players, or 1 elite pitcher signed long term, looking forward towards competing? Just the optics alone would have been appreciated. The injury just compounds the negatives. I hope for his recovery and success. I say this honestly, because if he came to Boston and had success till July 30 2014, I would have been happy for him, and STILL HATED THIS SIGNING.
The fact he is hurt now is irrelevant to my original dislike of the deal. With Gio we were a last place team that owned a bad contract whose only upside, if any, was deadline trade bait for a mid-tier prospect.
Without Gio we are now still a last place team that owns a 2-year contract on a player for $38 million with zero trade value. I wonder if there was any possible way to better allocate that $19 million going forward? So, so, so, many ways.
Great post. And I think the White Sox dodged a bullet by not stinging him back even though he would have liked to be back in Chicago with Ethan where he was comfortable and Sox fans loved him. White Sox much better off spreading the money around and seeing who among Sororka, Fedde and Eder or other young arms step up, then padding a mediocre team in an otherwise winnable AL central. Red Sox should have gone a similar route with the Sale trade. Puzzling that they sign Gio first, then trade Sale, then throw more money after a reclamation project in Liam. Red Sox may end up spending over $50 mill on two White Sox pitchers who never throw a meaningful pitch for a Red Sock contender
That has been my main gripe for about 5+ years. An impactful amount of money is being spent on reclamations and subpar talent in the name of versatility. Did we really save much money, or gain any benefit by spending tens of millions over the years on sub-par journeymen and career platoon split second basemen rather than simply sign one good everyday second baseman to a long-term deal?
There are glaring problems year after year, and the problems have grown from (using 2018 as a baseline) only a couple to 8+ problems on a 25/26-man roster. Rather than address and solve those problems long-term as they arose the team has been spending rather large amounts “hoping” for value. The result has nearly always been substandard results that act as Band-Aids that have to be addressed again during the season or the very next winter.
The problem with the approach of consistently targeting either high risk or low upside talent on very short-term contracts is that it creates a cycle that forces a team to constantly have to deal with ever growing problems yearly as more and more contracts expire due to so many short-term deals for questionable patch work players.
Casinos thrive off the fact that high-risk low odds money plays heavily into their favor. It is nearly impossible to lose in the aggregate for a casino for that reason. The fact the Red Sox aren’t aware of that basic principle while being run by an owner whose main strength is statistical analysis is baffling to me. He should be aware at a basic level that he cannot succeed with this approach because the odds are so heavily stacked against it working. Even if he gains success at such a statistical disadvantage one year, he will have to recreate that success nearly every year as multiple contracts keep expiring yearly and those players demand more money for their surprising overachievements. Now the decision has to be made to double down on a risky investment at a higher value negating the original purpose or cut bait and reengage in the cycle I mentioned above looking for the next high-risk reclamation or low expectation buy low player.
Right, that’s chasing losses another good analogy.
Looks like red sox have decided to follow the mets path to damnation. Have high expectations, sign aging injured pitchers, have a bloated payroll, and produce absolutely zero results
Giolito is young (29) and has been durable. They traded away the old, often-injured Sale.
No one could foresee the injury, but I will leave you with this. The oft injured ex ACE Chris Sale will be pitching this year on a playoff team. Gio will be injured for 1 and a half seasons for a last place team. I just know that a healthy Chris Sale is better than Gio, and certainly better than Gio not pitching at all.
As a Mets fan I thanked the Saux for jumping in front of the Mets and making this signing at the time! Thanks again for preventing the Mets own stupidity which will yield to a lousy year anyway.
How is Lowly Rodreguiz btw?
Enjoy the $368.8M failure the Mets will be after they pay their luxury tax bill.
I find that the biggest difference between the Mets and Red Sox is that although both failed miserably, the Mets were trying to succeed and every single fan of theirs knew without a shadow of a doubt that ownership was going all in last year.
There is no indication to me that the Red Sox have tried to be a serious competitive playoff team in years. Zero.
There seems to be a lot of bad juju surrounding this franchise currently.. Lots of empty seats at the “Fens” this year.
The Mets dodged a bullet on this one, they were hot on him. Even though he’s being paid well, I’m sorry to see that he’s hurt, both for him and the team.
Exactly, he’s local LA guy n Dodgers NEEDED pitching, afraid they were gonna B 1s who overpaid for P who’s never lived up to his pedigree. Giolito n Max Fried were on same high school team, Harvard Westlake. John Flaherty was also on that team, 1yr behind them. How’d they ever lose a game ? The way he pitched last season especially @end w/such poor results gota wonder if injury didnt pre-exist signing w/Bosox. Tough bein Boston fan these days. Goodluck w/rehab.
Guaranteed money. Smdh
Ouch…….And Wow
A perfect Sale replacement.
If I were Henry, I’d hire an independent doctor to take a look at whatever MRIs the RS doctors took, to see if this was something that should’ve been caught.
This is not like he threw 80 innings and the elbow wore out. This is 4.1 IPs plus his warmups and stuff. Stuff happens and all, but it feels like this was a pre-existing condition.
No need for MRI. Just need someone with slightly above average intelligence. Loss of velocity in 2023. They seen the same thing with Sale before giving him his contract. Third times a charm Sox fans can hope.
On the bright side there are plenty of season tickets available and getting to and from Fenway Park this season should be very easy.
People should not sleep on Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, Winck who are not big names but have had success at major league level. These are mlb quality arms, with new coaching, healthy this preseason and pitching well in early action. Team will score runs. They always do. Sox will be competitive with this group and with some breakthroughs by Bello and the other starters this team will be a fun under the radar team to root for.
Who else besides me is already STOKED to watch next year’s Netflix show about the 2024 season?!?
Gotta wonder how things will play out for “big name” pitchers still on the free agent market. Snell has never been a huge innings eater as a starter, while Montgomery seems to a little more durable, but will need time to stretch out before starting during the season. We’ll see who they sign with.
The Boycott for Redsox Nation was already underway regardless until we sign 2 Aces & a #2. Which it appears to me will be the remainder of 2024 and potentially beyond without a Montgomery or Snell signing preceeding a Burns, Freid signing next winter. The Redsox are getting EXACTLY what the baseball God’s will hand down for disrespecting the game, the city, its fans, and the overall meaning of the competitive world of sport! REEP IT Henry YOU DID THIS!
They’re not good or lucky.
I’m sorry but anyone sign…… as much as he got knocked around/ down/ off his head… he always answered the bell…( Taco Bell )gosh it’s gonna be a real tough year…… I can see a major league movie theme here… Redsox shock the world and at all star break Henry brings him back to put kabosh on season and he ends up striking out Ohtani in game 7 to win the championship for his beloved fans ( fan) ….. okay meds taking over…. Zzzzzzz
This is why I advise against giving player opt outs.
sunk costs are obviously bad, but this just might end up being good for the longer-term. i’m not even a sox fan and i’m curious to see how crawford/whitlock/murphy (working with bailey) do as full-season starters
Welp, so much for Boston’s big offseason acquisition. Brutal.
Good old KARMA .. gotta love it
Let’s trade sale and get someone who isn’t going to be ready for the start of the season … Even though we already needed pitching .. now he’s done $20 plus million washes away yup great job ownership lmfao clowns … And yet twos starters are still available who could really help and yet they still sitting there it’s really pathetic… I hate this ownership
The Cubs will give you Drew Smyly if you take his $10M contract.
Speechless
oof…gut punch for Red Sox Nation 23 days before Opening Day
Yikes! Should of signed Woodruff for 2 year, $25m plus Wacha for $12m… would have been better off, nevermind the obvious need for Montgomery
Whitlock should be in the pen with Winckowski starting
I said a few weeks ago 60/ 70 wins this season. This sure isn’t helping them
Chris Sale wins the Cy Young
Injuries can happen to anyone. But that’s 20 million they could of spent towards Montgomery
The Giolito saga was supposed to be this brilliant reclamation project that would prove Breslow to be the smartest man in baseball. Instead, he’s a fool for not simply finding what the team needed.
Fire him and Cora and go get a REAL GM and promise to give him full control to get us a championship in the next two years. Bloom’s damage was extensive but money spent wisely can fix any team.
I say FIRE THE ENTIRE HR DEPARTMENT FOR FOUR YEARS OF MISTAKES!!!!!
The series by series analysis I did said this team should win 66 games. I think it might be an over estimate at this point. No new talent, the loss of Turner and Sale and Cora / Devers making a mockery of the line-up and defense.. Top 5 draft pick is looking more likely every day!!!
Troll I was joking a few weeks back about them possibly loosing a 100 games . At full health and everything rolling right they are not that good. Add a couple injuries and a few regressions and see .
Curt Schilling has been invited to spring camp on a split contract.
Boston is where pitchers go to lose their UCLs.
Someone’s got to say it but is there any reason to believe he could have been injured BEFORE and going in to spring training? Bounced around a bit from July onwards…
lloyd – Here is the double edged sword. If he WAS NOT damaged goods then how great are our new pitching coaches? If he WAS DAMAGED GOODS, who is responsible for missing this injury. Is this another Story situation? Maybe we should fire the medical staff along with the rest of the front office, the coaching staff and manager. Oh yeah, and the GM!!!
Always hate to hear this, no matter the player or organization, even the Mets. Thought he was a good bounce back on the cheap in FB. Think Dave Dombrows should get on the phone and dangle Taijuan Walker for Chris Martin & Bobby Dalbec. Make some room on the books for this Snell guy.
Red Sox products:
Bello
Crawford
Houck
Song
Murphy
Walter
Winckowski (traded for as a minor leaguer)
Whitlock (Rule 5)
Slaten (Rule 5)
All of these guys are getting innings this Spring.
Last year that group pitched 38% of the innings, probably will go up a bit. Add in a couple of Rule 5 picks, Whitlock and Slaten. Heck, maybe 50% of the innings pitched by guys who have only pitched in the majors for the Red Sox. This is intentional. See what they have in these guys.
whyhayzee – Completely agree!!! Great young arms that all have a shot at turning into all-star level pitchers. Ods are only 1 or 2 will but I said it last year, this is the best young home grown pitchers we’ve had for a very long time. They just need a SP1 and SP2 to buy them the time to move up to those slots and keep the team competitive while it happens.
I was hoping Gio and Pivetta could take 300 to 350 innings between them. Jansen and Martin take another 100 or so. That would leave the other innings to kind of a ragtag group of reliever / spot starter options. Without Giolito, they should snag someone for the rotation, maybe even two, like you say. We will see what happens next.
The starting rotation for the Boston Red Sox is the bullpen.
Trollfree. You are right about this being amongst the best batch of young pitchers in the largest amount the Red Sox have had in many years. It is ranked 4th worst group of pitching prospects of any organization in baseball. Ahead of only Colorado, Pirates, and A’s.
That is not a knock on any of these pitchers individually, just the team. It says what many of us know. The Red Sox are still amongst the worst teams in baseball history at developing pitching, and that most analysts agree there is some upside individually, but not many expectations of elite talent and very little depth behind it.
My point is simple. I hope these guys ALL exceed expectations. We will need it desperately because we may be years away from help from within. Not many outside the organization have the same view of our pitching as our most optimistic fans, and management.
I think we have a chance if we were fielding a true playoff caliber team of having 1 of those guys being a true number 2 or 3 if he improves considerably. Another pitcher has a solid chance of being a rotation piece in perhaps the 4/5 slot. I think 2 have a chance if left in the pen of sticking for years for us with solid results. The rest I expect nothing from them except eating innings at around above or below league average results.
Firstly, A Red Sox product is made by the Red Sox, not by another team then poached. 3 names off the list. You can decide to think otherwise, but that is generally agreed upon. What is left of the names, could be listed by nearly all other 29 teams in the league if it was forced to use young pitchers from its bullpen to fill out 3 starters slots and was also forced to replace its bullpen from the minors.
There is some upside in those names. Isn’t that the point though. Every team thinks there is upside in at least a handful of their pitchers. The depth of that upside, and the word elite is a different story.
The A’s are nearly universally agreed upon for their terrible luck drafting pitching in their recent history by baseball analysts yet they can also just list these names if they were forced into the same situation the Red Sox are in.
Mason Miller
Louis Morales
Steven Echavaria
Joe Boyle
Joey Estes
Freddy Tarnok
Cole Miller
Royber Salinas
Jack Perkins
Gunnar Hoglund
Brady Basso
Ryan Cusick
Like the Red Sox, there is an issue with depth and expectations. Most agree that amongst all their pitchers on both teams there are only a couple that may end up being special, a couple that should perform above league average, and some that will be league average and eat innings.
BTW, those same analysts that universally agree the A’s have performed the worst at home grown pitching talent also agree the Red Sox are in the bottom 4 teams for pitching prospects over the same time period.
Again, we aren’t talking about 1900’s till now. This is just the last few years.
Life long Sox fan hoping for a complete meltdown this year.
Let’s give the A’s some competition.
Stan – ditto!!!
He can always remember of Stephen Strasberg’s and tell himself “I’m still so much better than that guy”.
Bor ass is now raising Montgomerys price by $5 million per year.
What is this? Keep asking until someone gives you the answer you want?
Patiently waiting to hear that Giolito is going under platelet rich injections and will be shut down for x amount, then hearing that he had a set back, then will in fact require surgery and will now miss all of 24 and most of 25.
Clevinger seems like a more likely target for Boston than Montgomery given that coasting in neutral seems to be their new plan. Will they capitulate to Boras and splash out big for Monty? I’ll believe it when I see it. They don’t seem to operate that way anymore.
Right now he is falling into that under achieving hole. And my guess is he will end up taking both years on his contract. Sooner or later marginal players stop getting teams taking a chances on them.
How bad would it hurt for the former Red Sox Chris Sale to have his best season in years with Atlanta and simultaneously their newest Red Sox star pitcher miss the entire season because of injury?
And didn’t their new secondbaseman, Grissom, suffer an injury that is going to slow his season start?
Perhaps there is some sort of curse after all.
Didn’t he just have a physical before signing? I’d be questioning the team doctors who examined him. No way all this damage just happened since coming to spring training.
Based on this injury happening so often, my guess is that it’s hard to see coming. Maybe the machine needs to be invented? Just for baseball.
Elephant in the room: sign the #1 pitcher in the world (Trevor) and add him to their #1 spot in their rotation and immediately be thrust into contention.
Trevor is waiting.
Sorry, the bus doesn’t stop on that street any more. He will have to walk home. Too bad.
great, money well spent, what happens when you cheap out and spend on guys who aren’t good enough to begin with, this is gonna be a sad, pathetic, and long season for Sox fans
I’m perfectly happy with it so far. Lots of young pitching talent getting a look see. But yeah, it’s been a fly’s age since we won.
“it’s been a fly’s age”
We all have to agree to bring this back.
I am playing my part by telling people not to give me any “GUFF” and mind their own “P’s and Q’s.”
All u debbie downers. Jesus. We have won basically 20 percent of world series in last 20 years. Relax
as a yankee fan (1 World Series appearance in the last 20 years) i approve this message
And they’ve come in last 3 of the last four years and ownership has clearly changed philosophically. Using the past as an excuse doesn’t work any longer.
also, they weren’t making the playoffs anyway so this allows them to audition a few more arms to see what they have heading into the 25-28 window
WOW! Three out of four WHOLE ENTIRE years of disappointment. What are we, 12 year olds?
hayzee – The team with the 3rd-highest revenue in MLB has finished last six out of the last twelve seasons … most in MLB.
Guess when was the last time the Yankees finished in the basement. 1990
And the last time the Dodgers finished in the basement. 1992
Braves finished last just once since 1991.
Giants finished last just twice since 1985.
Red Sox fans have tolerated all the losing because they haven’t gone more than 5 years without a championship since 2004. Until now, assuming they don’t win one this year.
Well said, Fever. hazee’s comment had no thought behind it yet you were patient enough to post a thorough reply, well done!
grnmt – Thank you!
Yeah I have no problem when others have differing viewpoints as long as they support their viewpoint.
If they don’t provide support, it’s hard to respect and quite often they are simply trolling.
Honestly, the Red Sox should’ve bit the bullet after trading Betts and did a full on tank-rebuild. Instead they’ve been half-ass trying to win and half-ass trying to rebuild for the future. Now look at them, they’re barely scraping along at just under .500 and hoping that broken pitchers will get unbroken so they can get back into the hunt. To quote the legendary Ron Swanson, “never half-ass two things. Whole-ass one thing.”
Either go full on Dodgers and buy everyone who’s good through trades and free agency; or go full on Orioles, tank for a few years, and stockpile a bunch of young cheap talent that’ll come up and synchronize at the same time. The half-in-half-out just leaves you mediocre for a long time. Trust me, I’m a Mariners watcher, and they’ve half-assed everything for damn near 20 years before Dipoto said enough and completely remade the roster and system.
Agreed 100% JKBC. Been saying the same thing since the second that trade was reported. There’s no excuse for what they’ve done since.
You mean rebuilding and having buckets of pitching talent? Yeah, terrible.
What pitching talent, and when? I agree we have young pitchers, and they will be seeing innings, a lot of innings, but that is out of necessity. I wouldn’t exactly claim this is a Red Sox golden age in pitching. We have adequate pitching with a little bit of upside in a few cases. Whether some or any in the long run pan out as successful or elite pitchers will be seen.
We have nearly no depth in the minors with bankable expectations. Many of those pitchers we hope will eventually eat up major league innings out of our crop. If they perform above league average, the Sox would consider it a success.
The Red Sox are perhaps the single worst organization in the history of baseball at developing and maintaining successful pitching. We have not had a dominant lefty in the pen since 2013 as an example. Our all-time great home-grown pitchers can be written down on the back of a stamp. The silver lining, if any, is Breslow saw this. He knows that there is little help on the way and has made a decision to finally reorganize the pitching program for the entire franchise. Literally anything he does will help. I suspect even his failures if they occur would be better than what was in place.
William – hazee’s lazy comment doesn’t deserve your effort. Great response!
I’m talking about before Dipoto did his rebuild, which I am a fan of because he did a lot of things right. Bavasi and Zdurencik, the previous GMs, were all over the place with their moves and a lot of their stupid decisions only served to set back the team for years. If they had even an ounce of competence the drought wouldn’t be nearly as long as it was.
Of course Gio will pick up his player option of 19 mil next yr what a joke – Sox should dispute this contract with Gio – Mets did when Cespedes tried to hide his injury and Mets disputed his contract and won – why do you think teams passed on this liar – very sad cuz in the end the fans foot this bill with the high prices they pay to watch sub standard ML play
MLB play keeps going down – they need to close the doors on a few team – Miami – Pittsburgh – Oakland – Royals – Rockies – Twins …. we would have better play cuz this would move whatever talent those teams had to be spread around improving play – just look at ML pitching it stinks and most teams have losers on them
Has anything been decided on Giolito yet?